“Sufferball” by Oscar Wood

Heres a special guest post from the excellent Oscar Wood.

It has been just over a year since Unai Emery’s tenure at Arsenal came to end. Despite the gloss of a remarkable FA Cup win, victory in the Community Shield and a first league win at Old Trafford in 14 years, the 12 months since have not been the perfect antidote to Emeryball that many, myself included, were hoping for. Arsenal have continued to perform in the PL at a mid-table level, and stylistically it has been dull viewing.

Make no mistake, Arsenal in their current level of performance are a mid-table team, and not a particularly good one. Since Arteta took over, the club have amassed the joint 9th most points in the Premier League, along with a goal difference of +7, but those figures are flattering. Arsenal’s expected goal difference in that time is around -6, which ranks 13th on a per game basis among current Premier League teams. In a number of games last season, most notably Burnley and Chelsea away, and Watford and Liverpool at home, Arsenal could’ve easily lost by multiple goals but came away with results that ultimately led to them accumulating a more respectable number of points than they otherwise might have. This season things have regressed to the mean and Arsenal’s position in the table reflects that.

With that in mind a realistic conclusion is that Arsenal under Arteta rank somewhere between 11th-15th among all PL teams. This is the basis upon which any analysis of managerial performance has to be built around. The overarching question for Arsenal right now is: have they made a second consecutive poor coaching hire, or, has the talent level at Arsenal really decreased so much in the last two or three years that dropping out of the top half is a realistic outcome?

Like always, of course, the reality is probably somewhere in the middle of those scenarios. It is possible that while the individual talent level of the Arsenal squad is still respectable, the combination of players is less than the sum of its parts, the result of jumbled strategy under multiple different coaches and executives. Maybe there is no obvious way to set the players up that will get the team to play at the level of its average individual talent level. Equally, Arteta is completely unproven as a head coach. Maybe the ideas that got him the job in the first place simply aren’t effective at improving teams on the pitch. There’s no precedent to suggest they are, so the idea he simply isn’t a good manager has to be taken seriously.

So far Arteta’s reign has actually taken on a similar path to Emery’s. A bright enough start, helped by some slightly fortunate results, with a clearer structure in playing out from the back and some encouraging displays in the big games. Granted the difference in the actual fluency in the play from the back under both has been night and day - helped by David Luiz effectively replacing Sokratis - and the overall organisation and intensity when defending in a low block has been much better under Arteta. But both also struggled to push on from that beginning. Both scaled back the amount of pressing with time, and by later periods of their tenure it had become a lot less clear and obvious as to what the structure and plan was than during the early weeks, likely the result of searching for solutions after the initial plans didn’t produce adequate results. To this day there’s a case to be be made that the most aggressive and fluent performances under Arteta were the first halves against Chelsea and United, in his second and third games in charge.

One of the main reasons Arsene Wenger began to be regarded as past his time was the pressing revolution of the 2010s in European football and his perceived inability to make Arsenal a top quality pressing team. But the teams in his latter year pressed far more aggressively than Arsenal have done under both Emery and Arteta, by eye test and any metrics. Both managers also had the team pressing less the longer their reign went on, suggesting they came to the conclusion that pressing and playing on the front foot was not the way to have success with this squad. Such a conclusion is damning, but when two different people with insider information come to such a conclusion, it has to be taken seriously.

The result, however, is an ineffective and honestly puzzling brand of football. Broadly, teams usually fall into one of three categories with their style of play; 1) possession dominating teams that press when they don’t have the ball (Manchester City, Liverpool etc), 2) teams that are happy to let the other side have the ball and look to play directly when they get it (Burnley, Crystal Palace etc), 3) teams that press without the ball and also look to play directly when they have the ball (Leeds, Southampton etc). Arsenal currently align closer to the much rarer fourth quadrant. Teams that look to play patient possession play, but are happy to sit back and and let the other team posses the ball when they get it. It’s a style that focus on structure and defensive solidity in both phases but is a significant factor in Arsenal’s incredibly shot shy attack, currently operating at under 10 shots per game.

The play style is reflected clearly in the stats. Arsenal have the 4th best pass accuracy in the league. When they get the ball they’re pretty good at retaining it. Yet despite that eight teams have averaged more possession per match this season. Data from Tom Worville in the Athletic during the November international break had Arsenal as having the fewest different possession sequences in the league. All this could be workable if Arsenal were efficient at progressing the ball into the final third and creating opportunities from those positions, but they’re not good at either.

People have, for obvious reasons, always linked Arteta’s coaching philosophy to that of Pep Guardiola. With that backdrop it’s curious to consider how much less potent and ambitious Arsenal are with and without the ball compared to any Guardiola team. Is it because Arteta’s football vision is different - or perhaps his coaching is simply worse - to that of Guardiola, or is this simply how Guardiola would approach managing a squad with the flaws of Arsenal, and we’ve just never seen it because the clubs he’s worked at have had so much more talent and resources? As usual the answer is probably a bit of both, though at this stage the former feels more likely.

All this is unlikely to change anytime soon. At the start of this season Arteta was formally promoted from head coach to manager, which suggests his input in transfers has increased, effectively taking up some of Raul Sanllehi’s old responsibilities. With that in mind Arsenal’s three major signings ahead of this season; Gabriel, Thomas Partey and Willian, are likely a good indication of the profiles of player Arteta likes, and the style of play he’s looking to build around. A centre-back, a midfielder who is admittedly an all-rounder, but more aligned to the defensive side of things than the creative or attack, and a hard working, disciplined forward who can take minutes from the more erratic but higher ceiling Nicolas Pépé.

What more, the few times Arteta has looked to open up more, it hasn’t exactly worked. The last three weekends has seen Arteta go for what many fans have been pleading for, a 4-2-3-1 with Aubameyang as the centre forward. While Aubameyang did actually get more good shots off against Leeds and Wolves, the change didn’t drastically change things going forward, but did expose how weak Arsenal’s defensive transitions continue to be. One of the positives sighted about Arteta’s reign so far has been an improved solidity defensively, but this has mostly been restricted to games where Arsenal have sacrificed attacking potential and defended with greater numbers. Overall Arsenal’s defensive numbers have been middle of the pack, at best.

Arsenal now find themselves in a groundhog day scenario. For the second time in a row, Arsenal are approaching the end of the calendar year with it not evident in the results or the underlying numbers that their manager is taking the team in a positive direction. A year ago it was plausible to imagine Arsenal playing a more proactive and ambitious style with the players they had under a different coach, while competing for a spot at least in the top six of the Premier League. Now after another coach has so far emphatically failed to do that, such a possibility feels a lot less realistic.

Arsenal's current reality in the Premier League landscape would be easier to accept were they fully committing to a rebuild and doing everything possible to maximise their chances of success later down the line. But the club have continued to try to patch things up with quick fixes. Arsenal have made five outfield signings under Arteta, the ages of whom were: 32, 28, 27, 26 and 22. Additionally the 24 year old Ceballos was loaned for another year and new contracts were given to 33 and 31 year olds respectively. It’s clear those in charge spent the backend of last season and the off-season making decisions primarily built around maximising their chances for this season. It’s not a particularly surprising strategy when you consider that the people making these decisions are new in the job and are likely seeking early vindication and trust in their methods from the supporters. But going down this route prevents you from being able to play the project and big picture cards during extended runs of bad performances.

Arteta will likely be given plenty of time still. The club have bought into the idea that he is the man to right the Arsenal ship. Remarkably, it’s only three months ago that he was given a job promotion. While it feels increasingly unlikely, Arteta could still have a long and successful tenure at Arsenal. Maybe he will find the solutions to Arsenal’s attacking woes. Maybe the third attempt of integrating Thomas Partey into the team, whenever that will be, will allow multiple things to click into place. Maybe he’ll get Arsenal back into the top half. Maybe that will be a good performance with Arsenal’s current talent level.

Arsenal fans who are supportive or at least accepting of that will need to face the reality of what the remainder of the season likely entails, however. History tells us it’s hard for teams to get significantly better without radical changes to either coaching or personnel. Modern analytics has few instances of successful managerial reigns beginning with no positive impact on the team’s underlying numbers in the first year in charge. While there is still a chance of a happy ending for Arteta, the road is likely to be very bumpy for the foreseeable future.