Settling a beef between Tyrann Mathieu and PFF (plus week 9 picks!)

Enjoy this week's very special (and very different) episode of The Film Room! And while you're hear, check out this week's Patron-only analysis and picks for every game this Sunday as well!

GAME PICK RECORD: 76-43-1

SPREAD PICK RECORD: 60-52-6 (53.6% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)

PACKERS @ 49ERS (from last Thursday)

GAME PICK: PACKERS

SPREAD PICK: PACKERS (-6.5)

TEXANS @ JAGUARS

GAME PICK: TEXANS

SPREAD PICK: TEXANS (-7)

ANALYSIS: Gardner Minshew is out for this game, which is huge because I honestly believe his propensity to chuck bombs down the field against a shaky Texans secondary was the only thing that could realistically keep Jacksonville in this contest. The Texans manhandled the Jaguars the first time around this season – giving Houston their only win of the year – and I see this game going the exact same way. Deshaun Watson will slice and dice a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA (+19.9%), J.J. Watt will terrorize whichever backup quarterback the Jags roll out there today (likely Mike Glennon), and for once all will be right with the world. The Texans may be a horrible team, but the Jags are somehow worse, and that’s the ONLY thing I feel good about this season as a Texans fan.

GIANTS @ WASHINGTON

GAME PICK: WASHINGTON

SPREAD PICK: WASHINGTON (-2.5)

ANALYSIS: What do you get when you combine a quarterback that has horrible pocket presence and makes terrible decisions under pressure with an opposing defensive line that ranks 2nd in the NFL in adjusted sack rate? Well…you get a Washington win, that’s what. The WFT are coming off a bye week while the Giants are on a short week themselves due to just playing on Monday night, and Big Blue’s 32nd-ranked offensive line in pass protection (yes, I’m serious) is being asked to block Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jon Allen, and Montez Sweat all in front of a quarterback that couldn’t see pressure even if it was three feet away from him and holding sparklers. If the Giants somehow win this game, I’ll be shocked.

Keep in mind that when the Giants won the first time around back in week 6, there were A LOT of weird things that happened in that game. Washington missed a field goal on their opening drive (which was the difference in the game all by itself), plus the Giants scored most of their points off of two turnovers from Kyle Allen. Their interception on Washington’s second drive set up the Giants on the WFT 27-yard line, and then in the fourth quarter when the game was tied, they forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown. Without all three of those plays happening, Washington probably would have blown the Giants out. I expect a much cleaner game (and a bigger result) in this rematch.

RAVENS @ COLTS

GAME PICK: COLTS

SPREAD PICK: COLTS (+1.5)

ANALYSIS: I don’t feel good about this game for Baltimore. It’s hard enough to protect a quarterback against that ferocious Colts pass rush, but it’s even HARDER to do when your elite franchise left tackle is out for the rest of the season with a broken ankle. I think Lamar is going to be under pressure early and often in this game, and if last week’s shaky (at best) performance against another great pass rush – Pittsburgh – was any indication, I’m not feeling great about Baltimore’s offensive prospects here overall. It’s possible that the Ravens can just lean on the ground game to try to move the ball, but that’s easier said than done against an Indy linebacking corps that is playing out of their damn minds this season and rarely make mistakes getting into their fits.

Plus, Marlon Humphrey is out, Jimmy Smith is *maybe* out since he did not practice Friday, and Colts rookie receiver Michael Pittman is more than good enough to beat up Khalil Dorsey all day long, who I am assuming will be replacing Marlon at right cornerback this week (Marcus Peters plays exclusively at left corner and does not travel at all). Overall, I just have a pretty bad feeling about Baltimore today. The matchup just doesn’t feel right for them.

LIONS @ VIKINGS

GAME PICK: VIKINGS

SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (-4)

ANALYSIS: The Lions defense does two things very, very poorly – they can’t stop the run, and they can’t stop running backs or tight ends in the passing game. Tracy Walker is the biggest reason for that second problem considering he’s been a massive liability in coverage this season, and I fully expect the Vikings to attack him relentlessly on third downs in between all of their runs against Detroit’s porous run defense that ranks 21st in the league in 2nd-level yards given up. Make no mistake about it, on paper this SHOULD be the Dalvin Cook show. I expect Minnesota to control this game from start to finish offensively speaking, and with Matthew Stafford possibly just barely coming off the Covid list today, and with Kenny Golladay out with that hip injury, I just don’t think the Detroit offense can keep up with them. I think the Vikings win by a touchdown, if not more.

BEARS @ TITANS

GAME PICK: BEARS

SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+6.5)

ANALYSIS: I don’t necessarily consider a Bears win to be a lock, but I feel decently good about it. The Bears have a defense that is tailor-made for stopping the outside zone run game, and if they can take that element of Tennessee’s offense away I really think they’ll be able to contain them overall. Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback, obviously, but he’s a much more comfortable thrower off of play action than just hanging in the pocket for three seconds to take a shot down the field. If you consistently get Tannehill into 3rd and long situations, he becomes a fairly below average passer. In 3rd and 6 or longer situations, he’s 28th in the NFL in completion percentage, 27th in yards per attempt, and has the 7th-highest percentage of sacks taken. Take away the run, and the Titans offense goes with it.

On the flip side, Tennessee has the worst 3rddown defense in the league by A LOT, and I think Nick Foles should be able to mount enough solid drives to put up just enough points to win this game. It will be ugly, it will be sloppy, but in true Bears fashion…an ugly win is still a win.

PANTHERS @ CHIEFS

GAME PICK: CHIEFS

SPREAD PICK: PANTHERS (+10)

ANALYSIS: I expect the Chiefs to win, but be careful about betting on them to cover. The Panthers are getting back both Christian McCaffrey and Yetur Gross-Matos today, while Kansas City is still without Mitchell Schwartz. Keep in mind that before Gross-Matos went down with a high ankle sprain earlier this season, Carolina had not one, but TWO top-five pass rushers in the entire league in pressure rate with YGM and Brian Burns. Stopping this duo of edge rushers without KC’s best tackle on the field is going to be a tall order, and they might end up having to keep Travis Kelce in protection a lot more than usual today to get it done.

Throw in the fact that the Panthers have a sneaky good offense that is getting their best player back on the field this week, and there is some SERIOUS upset potential here. In the end, I still think the Chiefs win…but not by 10+ points. Carolina’s pass rush is too good when healthy, and the CMC factor cannot be ignored. This smells like a true barn burner that goes down to the wire to me, with a narrow KC victory.

SEAHAWKS @ BILLS

GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS

SPREAD PICK: SEAHAWKS (-3)

ANALYSIS: Bills linebacker Matt Milano going on IR yesterday is a huge blow to Buffalo’s defense. They are likely going to have to stick to 2hi safety looks on defense today (cover 2, cover 4, etc) just to semi-contain D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, which means the Seattle ground game will be working with light boxes all day long. If the Bills still had a great linebacker like Milano on the field, sure they MIGHT be able to make that work and fit the run efficiently from 2hi looks, but without him…man, that’s a tall order. I just don’t see it happening. Eventually the Hawks are going to rip off enough big runs against light boxes to force those safeties down low, and that’s when Metcalf and Lockett will finally do their damage. Seattle could put up A LOT of points today…I really don’t like this matchup for Buffalo.

On the other side, the Hawks are getting Jamal Adams back today on defense, which is obviously huge, and their defensive line has been steadily getting more pressure as the season has gone on. Don’t get me wrong, overall this defense still has A LOT of work to do, but I think they’ll be able to get just enough key stops today to keep Josh Allen from going blow for blow with Russell Wilson, and that’s good enough for me. I think Seattle wins by 6.

BRONCOS @ FALCONS

GAME PICK: FALCONS

SPREAD PICK: FALCONS (-4)

ANALYSIS: Both of these teams are dealing with a lot of injuries. In addition to all of their *other* hurt players that are already out for the season, Denver will also be without Graham Glasgow again this week due to being on the Covid list, which is a nightmare scenario for the Broncos considering they face Grady Jarrett today. And on the other side, Atlanta is without BOTH of their starting edge rushers as well as their number two receiver – Calvin Ridley – who is out with a foot sprain. Honestly, I expect this to be a messy football game that will ultimately be won by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage putting the team on their back and racking up a metric ton of yards through the air.

A.J. Bouye is still out with a concussion, Bryce Callahan has a bum ankle, and Shelby Harris might not be able to play either because of his own issues with the Covid list. This Broncos defense was already paper thin as it was, and now that paper might as well be 1-play TP. I just don’t see how they’ll be able to hold up against this Falcons passing attack. Atlanta may not be a great team, but man they can REALLY throw the shit out of the ball when they have to, and today they will definitely have to. I think they win by at least six points.

RAIDERS @ CHARGERS

GAME PICK: RAIDERS

SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (-1)

ANALYSIS: The Chargers are an amazing second and third quarter team that absolutely cease to function once they get to the fourth quarter. I honestly can’t explain it – this team just CANNOT close out games that they should easily win…but today might be different. Why will it be different, you ask? Because I don’t think the Chargers are going to have a lead to blow in the first place!

LA is dealing with some key absences right now with Joey Bosa unlikely to play due to a concussion, Casey Hayward out due to some unknown personal reasons off the field, and Keenan Allen’s status still being up in the air due to an illness. Throw in Trai Turner also probably being out, and the fact that the Chargers just traded away Desmond King (one of their only reliable DBs left at this point), and I’m just not sure that Justin Herbert can drag with beat up squad to a win over a really good Raiders team.

Nobody in the Chargers secondary can run with Henry Ruggs, nobody is physical enough to handle Darren Waller, and Kenneth Murray’s rookie struggles vs the run are not exactly going to help stop Josh Jacobs either. I just do not see a path to victory here. There’s too many injuries, too many absences, and likely just WAY too much to put on Herbert’s shoulders right now. Give me the Raiders by a touchdown today.

DOLPHINS @ CARDINALS

GAME PICK: CARDINALS

SPREAD PICK: CARDINALS (-5.5)

ANALYSIS: The Dolphins passing defense is amazing. Their run defense?...absolutely putrid. In fact, they have the worst rushing defense DVOA in the entire league at 9.7%, which means opposing teams gain almost 10% MORE yards against the Dolphins than the league average on every single run play. That’s a huge, crippling weakness against a guy like Kliff Kingsbury who will not hesitate to just mash the ball down your throat with Chase Edmunds all day long and take the free yards. Why attack an elite secondary if you don’t have to, right?

Throw in the fact that I’m still not super confident in the Dolphins offense at the moment with Tua Tagovailoa still getting his feet under him, and I see a recipe for Miami to get run out of town quickly in this one. Pound the ball with Edmunds, move the chains through the air with DeAndre Hopkins every now and then, and play aggressive blitz looks against a rookie quarterback in his first ever road start. That’s the formula for a huge win here for Arizona, and I expect them to follow it to the letter. Cards by at least 8 points is a solid bet, in my opinion.

STEELERS @ COWBOYS

GAME PICK: STEELERS

SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-14.5)

ANALYSIS: GARRETT GILBERT, a FOURTH-STRING QUARTERBACK, is starting behind a bad offensive line – made up of mostly back ups at this point – against the best defense in the league. We’re getting T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree against Cameron Erving and Terence Steele on every single down. I mean, come on…I know a nearly 15-point line seems like it might be a little too big, but to me that’s not nearly big enough. This is going to be a slaughter. A pure, hard-to-watch slaughter. RIP, Garrett Gilbert. We hardly knew ye.

SAINTS @ BUCCANEERS

GAME PICK: SAINTS

SPREAD PICK: SAINTS (-4)

ANALYSIS: I still can’t quite figure out the Bucs. One week they are dismantling the Green Bay packers, and the next week they are losing to the Bears or ALMOST losing to the Giants. They play up or down to their competition every single game, and it makes them a very hard team to evaluate. Meanwhile when it comes to the Saints, I always know exactly what I’m getting – cold, calculated efficiency and excellent situational football. They might not be the most talented team in this game, but when it comes to all of the “little things”, they do what it takes to win. Stop the run, rush the passer, don’t turn the ball over on offense, and convert third downs at a high rate. They do all of those things well, and it gets results.

Michael Thomas coming back today could not be better timed for New Orleans. Their biggest weakness at this point was not having a true number one target that can go toe to toe with Carlton Davis and make the Bucs pay for leaving him on an island while sending constant blitzes, but now that he’s back I think that gives Drew Brees an excellent answer against all of that pressure. Tampa did a great job against Mike in week one before his ankle injury, but Hell hath no fury like a Michael Thomas scorned. I expect a huge day from him today and several big catches on third downs to beat those pressure looks that Todd Bowles loves to call.

I also expect a huge day from the Bucs passing offense as well, considering there’s almost no point in running the ball on the Saints anyway these days (they are yet again one of the league’s best run defenses for the third year in a row). This has all the tell-tale signs of a classic shootout between two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever walk this earth, and I personally CANNOT WAIT to see it. If this game doesn’t beat the over under of 50.5, I will be surprised. Let’s go with the Saints winning by 6 in a high-scoring match up fit for primetime…how about 30-24? Yeah, that sounds about right.

PATRIOTS @ JETS

GAME PICK: PATRIOTS

SPREAD PICK: PATRIOTS (-10)

ANALYSIS: Coming Monday morning once we know final injury designations.