[Buckwild] - A Mathematical Analysis

Buckwild (R,Y,B)

I love this card.

Red is a great addition for damage. Yellow and blue is also great to have. Although not as consistent having go again as kayo, we tend to have a yellow(all are 6s except bloodrush bellow, which you are happy to see) and a blue pitch in hand with this. I did the math for everyone and here’s below.

Are you all ready for a statistical journey?

Case 1:

If you have 4 cards and no arsenal:

It translates to roughly 60% of the hands you can have go again with Buckwild, given a 4 card hand.

the resource distribution given 20 R 18 Y 21B

3 resource (triple red,RRR) - 3.5%

4 resource (YRR) - 10.5%

5 resource (RRB,RYY) - 21.7% (12.3+9.4%)

6 resource (BYR,YYY) - 25.8% (23.3+2.5%)

7 resource (BYY) - 22.8%

8 resource (BBY) - 11.6%

9 resource (BBB) - 4.1% (within that 39% to have at a wrecker womp)

22.3%+22.8%+11.6% =56.7% having at least 1 yellow and 1 blue and 4.1% having a triple blue. Given you have 3 wrecker romp, roughly 60% of the hands you have go again with Buckwild in a 4 card hand.

Case 2:

If you have 4 cards in hand and a (red) Buckwild in arsenal:

4 resource (RRRR) - 1.0%

5 resource (RRRY) - 4.5%

6 resource (RRRB,RRYY) -11.7% (5.3%, 6.4%)

7 resource (RRYB,RYYY) - 19.4% (15.8%, 3.6%)

8 resource (RYYB, RRBB ,YYYY) - 23.6% (14.1%,8.8%,0.7%)

9 resource (YYYB,RYBB) - 20.4% (3.8%,16.6%) (14%, 27% have a wrecker romp)

10 resource (YYBB,RBBB) - 12.9% (7.0%,5.8%) (27%,39% have a wrecker romp)

11 resource (YBBB) - 5.3% (39% of the time you have a wrecker romp)

12 resource (BBBB) - 1.3% (49% of the time you have a wrecker romp)

15.8% + 14.1% + 20.4% + 7.0% + 5.3% = 62.6% to have a yellow and a blue. About 5% chance more to have a wrecker romp as a blue to give it go again.

It translates to roughly 70% of the hands you can have go again with Buckwild, given a 4 card hand and Buckwild in arsenal. You can block two cards and do an attack and wait another turn if it is so undesirable.

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Commentary:

Given the good consistency in being able to get go again, 5 pitch, 7 go again + 3 claw or 7 go again + 6/7/8 attack is a good attack pattern. This eliminates the need to roll a dice and complements on the existing cheetah package. Making your attack series harder to brick.

One side consideration for having 3 red in the deck is it ups the cost requirement in general in the 21 existing reds. (In the past I limit to have only 1 3 cost red to increase consistency) I might consider to play one fewer yellow and one more blue to compensate but will require further calibration. I am playing 3 strongest survive in most matchup which brings up to 6 3-cost red attacks.

If that is the case I am considering if I would play 21 16 23 pitch curve.