How change for Aaron Nesmith could change the East Finals for the Pacers

Previewing the Eastern Conference Finals through the lens of the player who the Pacers need to star in his role against not just one, but maybe two, opposing stars

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

When the Pacers lost 123-98 to the New York Knicks in what was the second game of the regular season, they looked "awfully" different, despite relying on continuity for improvement, from the team that downed the Knicks in the second round of the playoffs a few months earlier, let alone this version of the team that will soon be facing off against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Tyrese Haliburton was clearly limited. Though, at the time, it wasn't exactly clear which injury was limiting him. No one was making shots, the pace had gone missing, and the defense looked like, well, what the defense looked like for most of the prior season. In fact, the only thing that was all that similar from then until now was the starting lineup.

Of course, in the second regular season match-up, when Tyrese Haliburton (35), Bennedict Mathurin (38), and Myles Turner (26) nearly combined for 100 points, that even changed, as Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith both were sidelined due to lingering maladies.

Three months later, after the team retuned from an extended road trip that saw them get outscored 145-86 in the first quarter of the four games they played out west, Nesmith was reinserted into the starting lineup for the first time since his injury against New York, once more in place of Bennedict Mathurin, with the intent being not only to jump-start the starters but also to gear up for the playoffs by balancing out the roster. Of course, with Turner taking his (ahem) turn on the sidelines, the Pacers dropped that game, too -- as Karl-Anthony Towns had his way, repeatedly driving his preferred way (right!) against the remaining bigs, while Josh Hart also reigned supreme, crashing here, there, and everywhere, in the heartland.

Taken altogether, the Pacers lost the two games when Aaron Nesmith started, and won the game when he was out. And yet, there's a strong case to be made that the changes he's made to his game, along with the changes he brings to the game, could be one of the biggest swing factors in changing this series.

Here's why, presented via his potential impact at both ends of the floor.

On defense:

Jalen Brunson plays basketball as though his entire game is the stutter rip. Like a heavy-duty, floor buffer machine, his methodical play-style is punctuated by quick, unpredictable movements, requiring length at the point of attack to make up the difference for the separation he creates in spite of his smaller stature. Andrew Nembhard was the team's best overall defender last season, and he's been even better this season, flashing his feel for feeling out his opponent's next step (i.e. Nobody said it would be Nembeasy!), but there was a reason why he stopped guarding Brunson after Game 2 of the semi-finals last season.

Well actually, there were a few reasons. Whereas Nembhard typically plays defense in contain, cutting off drives and staying in front of the ball, Nesmith is generally less restrained and more ambitious, for reasons both good and bad, while also boasting the bigger frame. Furthermore, by playing Nesmith on-ball, the Pacers benefited from playing Nembhard away from the ball -- where he is also arguably the team's strongest defender. Just think back to this possession from Game 3. When Nesmith allows Brunson to turn middle with his dominant left hand, Nembhard pounces, jumping onto the ball while motioning for Siakam to stay home on the blazing inferno that was Donte DiVincenzo.

Then, once the drive was cut-off, forcing Brunson to pivot away from the basket, Haliburton activated his instincts as aerial ace and made the read to, quite literally, take first pass on the back-side of the action.

Meanwhile, Siakam was also looming, providing a shadow presence behind the action in an early glimpse of the role he would come to grow into this season while boasting the team's biggest differential in defensive swing net rating, as he enabled Nesmith to press up closer to the ball.

In that way, while Nesmith certainly deserves credit for playing the part of pebble in the relentless All-Star's (albeit, somewhat hampered) shoe, he was never (in and of himself) the "Brunson stopper." No one is, and no one on this roster likely will be. It takes a village, which is why the coverage from Nesmith didn't quite look the same in the second game of the regular season, when those guardrails were removed. In that match-up, with Isaiah Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa, and DiVincenzo replaced by Mikal Bridges, Towns, and a healthy O.G. Anunoby, Siakam started the game tethered to Anunoby so that Haliburton could take on the assignment against Josh Hart. In effect, that meant that Siakam generally wasn't available to be on hand, roaming with a helping hand in the gaps. This was the result.

And, let's just say, Brunson let the crowd hear about it. To an extent, that fervor worked in favor of the Pacers a few months later. With Nesmith making his return to the starting lineup against Brunson in February, it almost seemed at times like New York's small-but-mighty guard was a bit too intent on overpowering that match-up, hunting his own offense at the expense of setting up Towns, whose primary assignments were Thomas Bryant and Obi Toppin. Hmm.

Why not pitch the ball back to Bridges out of the step-up screen there instead of trying to split the defense? That said, although the process wasn't always optimal for Brunson, who finished with just eight points on 4-of-11 shooting while battling foul trouble, Towns ended up amassing 40 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists, as he dominated turning the ball downhill and/or attacking closeouts with his dominant hand against Indiana's array of back-up centers.

In that case, Towns still managed to wriggle his way to the rim even with Siakam straying from the strong-side corner, as Achiuwa started in place of Anunoby (which, uhh, is something to consider with regard to Brunson's more muted performance against Nesmith in that game). Of course, Turner was available in the other two meetings, and Towns averaged 30 points and 12 rebounds on over 70 percent true shooting against the Pacers this season. Notably, the only players for Indiana who logged at least 10 half-court possessions as the big man's primary defender were Turner (106), Bryant (45), Jackson (14), and Toppin (10) -- all of whom are centers or, as it applies to Toppin, occasionally masquerade as such.

This is contrary to the hide-a-big strategy that many others teams have deployed against the Knicks this season, in which the defensive center cross-matches onto Hart with a smaller player (such as Jrue Holiday) defending Towns. In addition to the passive size that is gained around the basket with a big, rather than (say) Haliburton roaming from Hart, those match-ups also provide the flexibility to switch on ball-screens between Brunson and Towns. Plus, going back to his time in Minnesota, when the Clippers were trendsetters, guarding Towns with Nicolas Batum rather than a big, Towns is generally less productive when defended by guards and wings.

Just look at his player points per 100 half-court match-ups by defensive player position from this season, including the playoffs:

• Guards - 25.129 points per 100 half-court match-ups, 967 match-ups

• Forwards - 26.720 points per 100 half-court match-ups, 2369 match-ups

• Centers - 37.221 points per 100 half-court match-ups, 1929 match-ups

The same also applies to his touches per 100 possessions:

• Guards - 19.239

• Forwards - 32.070

• Centers - 31.248

All too often, when Towns is defended by a smaller player, the inclination for the Knicks is to default to screening actions between Brunson and Hart to directly involve the defensive big, which marginalizes a stagnant Towns on the perimeter.

For the Pacers to replicate that strategy, there might need to be some consideration for Nesmith to guard Towns rather than Brunson. Actually, let's rephrase that: There might need to be some consideration for Nesmith to guard Towns so that he can also guard Brunson. Think of it this way. Last season, prior to trading for Siakam, the Pacers would occasionally assign Nesmith to the opposing team's center in order to switch ball-screens, with the defensive big for the Pacers guarding weak-side corner.

Picture this scenario against the Knicks. Nembhard would apply full-court pressure against Brunson, so as to minimize the risk of overzealousness leading to foul trouble for Nesmith. When Towns approaches as the screener, Nesmith would switch onto Brunson, thereby repositioning his length on-ball. In the background, meanwhile, Turner would kick Nembhard out to Hart in the corner on the roll from Towns, just as Jalen Smith can be seen doing here against the Hornets.

The Pacers gradually went away from that coverage last season, as the timing of executing that switch can be tough depending upon who is at the controls (i.e. if Haliburton is piloting the pick-and-roll, he'll weaponize the skip pass in anticipation of the scram for the Pacers to play through the weak-side corner). Brunson, for all his scoring prowess, which is immense, isn't quite that quick at making pre-emptive reads. Another reason why that scheme fell by the wayside is that the Pacers came to prefer maintaining Siakam's presence in the gaps and also found that opponents would often just screen with the low-usage wing to still force Turner away from the basket. In this case, though, if the Knicks start screening with Hart, as they so often do, at the expense of Towns, then that seems like a win. To be fair, Hart is certainly a capable screener (and crasher!), but he isn't going to average 30 and 12 against the Pacers in the same manner as Towns, who (again) tends to be less involved in the offense for the Knicks against cross-matches.

It's possible the Pacers could try to mimic that same strategy with Siakam instead of Nesmith. The only problem is, if Siakam switches onto Brunson, the Knicks would be wise to follow with a subsequent pick to test his screen navigation. In that event, based on the coverages against the Giannis-AJ Green inverted pick-and-roll in the first round when Siakam was on-ball, a Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll followed by a step-up screen from Bridges (who would likely be defended by Haliburton) could get dicey. By comparison, Nesmith is more capable of climbing over the top of picks, which could also be essential if a Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll, switching Nesmith on-ball, is followed by Brunson-Hart pick-and-roll, with Turner defending in drop. For those reasons, the more suitable match-up for Siakam will arguably be against Anunoby, who has suddenly flashed a bit more juice in terms of advantage creation while playing in a secondary role.

Of course, attempting this wouldn't come without risk. Last season, before the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam or once again made a go of trying to turn Jalen Smith into a power forward, Nesmith started opposite from Towns on the road in Minnesota. After that game, the following piece was published here at Basketball, She Wrote: "The Pacers are still winging it against wings."

If Towns makes it his mission to dive into post catches against Nesmith, and the Knicks oblige him, the outcome could end up looking like one of those "must be this tall to ride" signs outside a roller coaster.

Then again, the Pacers are generally quick to double post mismatches and the efficacy of their help defense is considerably more cohesive than what was the case during the first half of last season, when "pretty girls can guard, too" and "hot girl basketball" were common monikers in these parts. If the Pacers have to choose between the way in which Towns has overwhelmed their bigs or the possibility of either limiting his touches or overwhelming him in the post with multiple bodies, there's reason to at least ruminate on the possibility of the latter.

In addition to Nesmith, the Pacers will also have other change-up options at their disposal. During the fourth quarter of the win over the Knicks in November, Jarace Walker very quietly made a case for himself as a potential reinforcement in support of Nesmith against Brunson. Just as the first round projected as a series where spot minutes could be needed from Walker in relation to Siakam, with the same being the case with regard to Ben Sheppard and Nembhard against the Cavs, this series could once again tilt in the direction of Walker, if for no other reason than his length still allows him to account for the lean and tilt of Brunson's various counters.

In that way, the Pacers have more options than what was possible in the semi-finals a year ago, but determining which buttons to press and when, especially as it applies to whether Nesmith should start out opposite from Brunson or Towns, will arguably be of the utmost importance.

On offense:

There are 37 players in the NBA who have attempted at least 60 jump-shots in the playoffs. Among them, here's who leads the pack in effective field-goal percentage:

Aaron Nesmith, at 69.85 percent.

At first glance, given that the players coming in at second and third are Myles Turner (68.33 percent) and Andrew Nembhard (66.25 percent), the assumption likely is that Haliburton is generating tons of open shots or that this isn't sustainable. But, here's the thing. Nesmith shot 27.9 percent from three in the playoffs last season, with 44.3 percent of his attempts being heavily contested. This season, he's shooting 48.2 percent, with 57.1 percent of his attempts being heavily contested. That means, he's hitting more often from deep even while also technically being defended more.

So, what gives?

Well, because Haliburton is so often being face-guarded, more initiation responsibility has tilted to Nembhard. In the second round against the Cavs, Haliburton averaged 27.1 ball-screens per 100 possessions for a total of 96 picks, compared to 35.3 for Nembhard, amounting to a total of 123 picks. As such, Nembhard was often piloting the pick-and-roll in four-on-four situations, producing a robust 1.152 points per chance. In turn, with how much Nembhard has been on-ball, opposing teams responded by shifting more of the weaker defensive and/or smaller guards over to Nesmith.

Some of this is also match-up specific, but look at the difference in his top-six most frequent half-court match-ups during this playoff run by comparison to a year ago:

• 2024 Playoffs: Jalen Brunson, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Josh Hart, Alec Burks

• 2025 Playoffs: Donovan Mitchell, A.J. Green, Kyle Kuzma, Darius Garland, Gary Trent Jr., Damian Lillard

The average height of his defenders over the last two rounds of the playoffs is 6-foot-3. He's listed at 6-foot-6, and he's shot 45.8 percent on his guarded three-point attempts, compared to 24.1 percent a year ago. So, although a higher percentage of his threes have been contested in terms of the position of the defender's body, he's more capable during this run to shoot over the top, by virtue of who is defending him.

Concurrently, during the regular season, he also improved as a movement shooter, hitting on 40.3 percent of his 67 shots whether moving to the left, right, or in relocation, after shooting just 35.9 percent on 103 attempts the prior season. That progression has carried over to the playoffs, as he's already gone 10-of-14. Needless to say, the fact that he's making nearly every shot in sight, without barely even taking a dribble, isn't just a product of Haliburton's gravitational waves. It's also representative of both his (and Nembhard's) growth, and doesn't necessarily have to be an indicator for regression.

After all, the player who defended him most for the Knicks during the regular season was Brunson, who he will once again have a size advantage against. Now, he needs to look to that leverage that more readily, even if not only for the purpose of scoring.

There are 37 players who have drawn at least 50 closeouts during the playoffs. Of that group, the only player who has tallied more points per direct chance than Nesmith (1.362) is Derrick White (1.439). Unlike the second game of the regular season, if Nesmith catches the ball against Brunson in a spot-up situation, he shouldn't let the smaller guard off the hook -- especially if he has an entire side of the floor to himself.

Even when he doesn't have the ball, Nesmith still needs to play an active part in forcing Brunson to defend. Just look at the difference, here, when he sets a weak-side flare screen to remove Brunson as the low-man on the mismatch for Siakam.

By comparison to the same play/action, when he stays idle.

Depending upon how the rotations shake out for both teams, it's possible that Bennedict Mathurin, after a fairly quiet playoffs in terms of overall impact, could play a part in the directive to guard Brunson by forcing him to guard, as well.

Either way, similar to the New York Knicks, Aaron Nesmith has leveled up his play from where he finished last season. Whether the Pacers also level up from where they finished last season, advancing to the NBA Finals, could hinge significantly on to what degree the changes he's made to his game and the changes he's capable of bringing to the game can change the series, if need be. He isn't a star, but the Pacers need him, now as much as ever, to star in his role while going toe-to-toe and attempting to gain a foothold against at least one, and maybe even both, of the opposing team's stars.