The Battle for National's Soul

One of the columns I wanted to write when I still wrote for the Herald was a piece on the rising Christian fundamentalism within National. I never got around to it as it was never that relevant, however it's become super relevant.

The leadership speculation has obviously been at feverpitch within National. Muller and Kaye had been speculated as a pairing for weeks, but it was also known that they didn't have an outright majority to get them over the line.

One National MP from Team Muller said to me they wanted a clean ousting. Just walk up to Simon, tell him they had the majority and have him leave. A bloodless coup. But without the majority that was impossible.

The next desired option was for Judith Collins to play the role of Peter Dutton. Have her try to roll Simon and then Muller would be Scott Morrison: creeping through the middle to take the role. However Judith wasn't born yesterday and would not be goaded into such a move. The repeated attempts to get her to do so actually drove her into a weird unholy alliance with Simon.

Plenty of National MPs said to me "we just need one bad public poll and we can move". And boy did they get it. And then they got the hair dye quip. And the word cloud. More than enough info to go. But still Muller waited.

Simon's play to call the no-confidence vote on himself was a smart one. Now wavering Nats would see that Simon was the courageous fighter, and Todd was the ditherer. And now Simon wants to have it as early as Friday, denying the party the chance to get together and chat before Tuesday's caucus.

There is a large bloc in National of Christians with some pretty extreme views. They're not traditional Christian National Party folk, but more fire and brimstone. Muller is a traditional National Party Christian, he voted no on the abortion bill's second and third reading, he voted no on all three readings of the euthanasia bill. But he is considered not right wing enough by the large Christian bloc.

The rest of this column is all unconfirmed things I've picked up so take it with a very large grain of salt.

Simon isn't just Christian, but allegedly went through a born-again ceremony a year or two back. This informs his thinking, and has also won over the Christian bloc.

Allegedly Paula Bennett has also found her way into the loving arms of Jesus [Edit: this is not to say she has suddenly become a social conservative, rather that she is now a person of more faith].

All of the highly conservative Christian MPs want to fight their very own culture wars here in NZ; think GOP level. Staunchly pro-Israel, really strongly anti-abortion, anti-women and gay rights. They want to fight the "Marxism" that they believe has infested our schools, universities and even Labour(!).

This is who Muller and Kaye were fighting against. They represent the "liberal" side of National. Socially more liberal, economically more conservative. 

In 2002 when Bill English led National to a slaughter, the far right of the party - the Don Brash side - wanted it to be a rout. Because after the rout the only ones left were the ones who were far right. This is the situation now, except it's Christian fundamentalists, not libertarians.

They want National to be obliterated at this election because the ones with safe electorate seats who will get in and will be the last ones standing are not liberal by any stretch. Maurice Williamson, who was one of the more liberal National MPs was replaced by Simeon Brown. John Key was replaced by Chris Penk. Up and down the country National's electorate branches have been installing hard Christian candidates in safe blue seats.

Based on the murmurings coming out Muller is struggling. There have been some really basic errors. After Simon called his bluff this morning, he should have issued a statement saying yes he would be challening for the leadership but he won't be doing it in public. If the story of who they brought in to help them is true then I wouldn't want to be TWELVE METRES from that campaign. But there should now be people out talking about Muller - who he is, what his background is etc. It's not like he'd have any magazines to do soft media in anyway even if he was successful [Edit: Muller firing back with the letter issued 15 minutes after this column was published was a very strong move, it may have given him back the momentum].

The Colmar Brunton Poll may give him impetus again but if it doesn't then we'll likely see Simon emerge as leader. And a sharp tack even further right for National's campaigning.

Forgot a really key point. Christopher Luxon ties in very neatly to the views of the Christian Bloc and so will help lead them to the Promised Land (?) when he gets in. That's why Muller needed to move now.

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