David Cormack

When the leaks began

Added 2020-04-18 22:51:45 +0000 UTC

In an earlier post I talked about a Curia Poll I was given access to that had Labour on 49 and National 31.

Obviously the context is important, and that context is that we're in the middle of a national emergency and there's a theory called the "rally 'round the flag" effect where people support whatever leader is leading during a crisis.

Totally plausible.

But then a National MP got in touch with me and said that the party had traditionally been shown its internal polling at the first caucus meeting of every sitting block.

But, they said, caucus hasn't seen internal polling since about February 11.

I know that I love to hide information from my team when I'm doing really well, so that must be why. Simon doesn't want to over-excite the team so he must be keeping the results.

As many have pointed out, polling right now is pretty meaningless because the world is fucked. And things will change at a rapid rate so Labour could tank and National might surge sometime between now and September.

There are a few barriers to that. Since Simon ruled out NZFirst, he needs to take National to about 47% on election day to win. That's the same as the best result that John Key ever managed when he was leader. And I'm not sure there are many in the National Party, or the country, or anywhere who believe that Simon is as good a leader as John Key.

The big thing they will have in their favour is that at the moment Labour is basically Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson, who are probably two of the most capable Labour MPs. As soon as this lockdown malarkey ends we'll be back to having all the other clowns involved. And unless those same clowns have suddenly learned to be capable they'll go back to the circus that was this Government.