August 22nd, 2025: Judge, Offense, Schlittler, Williams, Wells, Mailbag

Spencer Jones got back on the horse Wednesday and slugged his minor league leading 31st home run of the season (video). He hit it off Alek Manoah. I’m not sure if that makes it more or less impressive. With his next dinger, Jones will become the first Yankees’ minor leaguer with 32 homers since Pete O’Brien hit 33 in 2014. Let’s get into today’s post.

1. Judge’s throwing will be limited, maybe. Depending who you asked and when you asked them, Aaron Judge will be limited with his throwing whenever he returns to the outfield. There was an “everyone is not on the same page” situation Tuesday, I suspect moreso with messaging than with the actual nuts and bolts of Judge’s flexor strain. Here is Bryan Hoch with the relevant information:

"We’re trying to get through where he can let it go with ease and be able to protect himself,” Boone said on WFAN. “I don’t think we’re going to see him back to throwing like he normally does at any point this year, but that’s OK, too. We’ve got to feel like he can go out there and be able to protect himself and represent himself.”

Judge continued his throwing program at George M. Steinbrenner Field prior to crushing one of the Yankees' franchise-record-tying nine homers in a 13-3 win over the Rays, then pushed back on the assertion that his throwing may not return to 100 percent this year.

“I don’t know why he said that,” Judge said. “He hasn’t seen me throw for the past two weeks. I’m pretty confident I’ll get back to it.”

Speaking with reporters prior to Tuesday’s game, Boone clarified his remarks.

"I think I was trying to say, initially, I don’t expect him coming out and making Aaron Judge throws that we’ve become accustomed to seeing,” Boone said.

This feels like an “oh crap, was I not supposed to say that out loud?” moment for Boone. It doesn’t reflect well on him that the team captain pushed back so forcefully against something he said, but this isn’t the first time a player said he expects to do more post-injury than others believe, nor will it be the last. It’s just not often that Judge pushes back against Boone, let alone discusses anything about his injuries. Maybe there’s a little underlying tension there? Hmmm.

Ultimately, none of this matters. Judge has a flexor strain, it isn’t a secret, and opposing teams will test him (repeatedly) whenever he returns to the outfield. They’re gonna tag up on fly balls, go first-to-third and second-to-home, all that, more aggressively than they normally would until Judge shows he can make the throws necessary to stop them. And if he can’t, then they’ll keep running on him.

Here are Judge’s numbers holding and throwing out runners over the years (right field only):

Judge has always been exceptional at preventing runners from taking the extra base (Held%). He’s been around 60% in three of his last four seasons as a full-time right fielder, about 14 percentage points better than the league average. Part of that is Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch and being able to play a little shallower, but a lot of it is Judge and his strong arm. Teams don’t challenge him frequently.

(Kill% is rate of throwing out runners trying to take the extra base. Judge is average there. It’s a weird stat because the guys with the best arms typically have lower Kill% than you’d expect. That’s because teams don’t run on them as much. Only the fastest runners tend to push it against them.)

Historically, teams don’t try to take the extra base against Judge all that often, but that will change in his very first game back in right field. That was going to be true even before this wire-crossing about whether he’ll be able to throw 100% when he returns. Opponents were always going to make Judge prove he can make the throws he usually makes, or even just the throws an average right fielder makes.

Tests showed Judge’s UCL is intact but flexor strains are nasty business. From what I’ve picked up as a layman covering the game, the flexor takes the stress of the throw. If the flexor is compromised, the stress goes to the UCL, which it can’t handle, so it snaps. Aaron Hicks had a flexor strain in August 2019 and his UCL was intact. Two months later he had Tommy John surgery after trying to play through it.

I figured Judge’s throwing would be limited when he returns to the outfield for that reason. The Yankees and Judge will be taking a huge risk, and having him rein in his throwing (75%? 50%? I dunno) could help mitigate the risk. The scary part is that, in the heat of competition, can Judge stay grounded? There will inevitably be big moments and he’ll be tempted to really let a throw go. That’s just being a competitor.

There is nothing good about this. When Judge returns to the outfield, it will not mean he’s in the clear, and that he’s forever avoided surgery and/or will be able to throw without restrictions. The miscommunication or whatever that was between Boone and Judge earlier this week was silly but ultimately is a big nothing. The No. 1 concern is whether Judge can actually play through this, and do so in such a way that he’s effective and avoids a more serious injury.

"I’m not stupid. I’m going to be cautious with it and make sure we don’t make it worse,” Judge told Hoch. “We’ve got the rest of August, September, and October. I’ve got to be out there for all those games. So I’ve just got to be smart with it.”

2. Weekday thoughts. What a difference a week makes. Even with Thursday’s entirely predictable error-filled loss (you can pencil this team in for multiple errors in anything resembling a big game), the Yankees have won seven of their last nine games, and all the teams around them in the Wild Card race are stinking it up. The Red Sox are 4-7 in their last 11 games. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight. The Guardians are 1-5 in their last six. The Rangers are 3-11 in their last 14. Here’s the Wild Card race before and after:

AUGUST 10th
1. Mariners: 66-53 (+3.5 GB)
2. Red Sox: 65-54 (+2.5 GB)
3. Yankees: 62-56
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4. Guardians: 61-56 (0.5 GB)
5. Rangers: 60-59 (2.5 GB)
6. Royals: 58-60 (4 GB)

AUGUST 22nd
1. Yankees: 69-58 (+1.5 GB)
2. Red Sox: 69-59 (1 GB)
3. Mariners: 68-60
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4. Royals: 66-62 (2 GB)
5. Guardians: 64-62 (3 GB)
6. Rangers: 63-66 (5.5 GB)

The Astros have lost five of their last seven games and were shut out in four of those five losses, and they’ve gained a game in the standings because the Mariners have been so bad lately. Houston is trying to hand the Mariners the AL West, and the Mariners are just like no thanks, the Wild Card is fine. The Rangers, woof. I doubt they’ll put Merrill Kelly on waivers to dump his salary, but maybe?

I am rooting hard for the Yankees to stay in that top Wild Card spot and either the Guardians or Royals to sneak their way into that second Wild Card spot. Give me that sweet, sweet AL Central matchup in the Wild Card Series. The AL East is still in play, technically, but let’s worry about solidifying that top Wild Card spot before moving on to bigger and better things. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Another nine-homer game

In the first 112 years of their existence, the Yankees had two eight-homer games. They’ve now had two nine-homer games in 2025. They did it against Nestor Cortes & Co. on March 29th and again against the Rays on Tuesday. The Yankees made themselves so comfortable in George M. Steinbrenner Field you’d think they own the place. Here are all nine homers. It was a grand old time (without a grand slam).

“Did we hit nine?” Aaron Boone asked Bryan Hoch after the game. “… To do it twice, that’s remarkable. There were some ones that were seriously hit too. Just a really impressive offensive showing against a team that is not always easy to score runs against.”

Only four times in history has a team hit nine homers in a game and the Yankees are the only team to do it twice, let alone twice in one season. Here are the four times:

• Sept. 14th, 1989: Blue Jays with 10 HR vs. Orioles

• Sept. 4th, 1999: Reds with 9 HR vs. Phillies

• March 29th, 2025: Yankees with 9 HR vs. Brewers

• Aug. 19th, 2025: Yankees with 9 HR vs. Rays

Boone was involved in three of those games. He managed the two Yankees’ games this season and he hit the first of those nine homers for the Reds in 1999. Go figure. José Caballero, starting for the fourth straight game, hit two of the nine homers. He had two homers all year going into Tuesday, both for the Rays before the trade. Way to stick it to your former team, José.

Here are a few more nuggets on the nine-homer game since I have them in front of me:

• Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton hit back-to-back-to-back homers in the first inning. The 2025 Yankees, 2024 Dodgers, and 1982 Brewers are the only teams with three sets of back-to-back-to-back homers in a season. The Yankees also did it March 29th against Nestor and April 29th against Kyle Gibson. Nestor and Gibson were leading off the game, I’m sure you remember.

• Bellinger, Caballero, and Stanton each hit two home runs. It’s somehow only the second time in franchise history three Yankees had multiple homers in a game. Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, and Moose Skowron did it against the Red Sox on May 20th, 1961.

• Forget the ninth home run. The Yankees are only the third team with two eight-homer games in a single season, joining the 2019 Twins and 2005 Rangers.

• Of the four nine-homer games in history, Tuesday was the only time a team did it without also allowing a home run in the game.

Judge’s home run was his 40th this season. He is the fourth Yankee with four career 40-homer seasons, joining Babe Ruth (11 times), Lou Gehrig (five times), and Mantle (four times). Judge also did it in 2017, 2022, and 2024. He’s the 27th player with four career 40-homer games. Shohei Ohtani is the only other active guy to do it, though Pete Alonso could join them if he finishes the season on a heater.

With 35 games to go, Judge has a chance at his fourth 50-homer season (he hit 15 homers in a 35-game span earlier this year), and that’s an exclusive club. Only Ruth, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa have four 50-homer seasons. Judge has looked more like himself lately. He homered once and nearly a second time in St. Louis, homered again Tuesday, and is scalding the ball in general. Look at his Tuesday:

Stanton, good gravy does he look dangerous at the plate. The results have been excellent (.303/.384/.625 and 177 wRC+ with 15 HR in 47 games!) and his overall at-bat quality is top notch. He’s not taking those wild swings on breaking balls way out of the zone, he’s not flinching at pitches just off the plate, and he’s punishing anything in the zone. Right now, Stanton is like a second Judge.

"The way he’s been hitting lately, the preparation and the mental side of the game is really fun to watch,” Bellinger told Hoch about Stanton. “He’s locked in at the plate right now. It’s very impressive.”

Giancarlo came off the bench Wednesday and hit that extremely cool go-ahead two-run home run in the tenth inning. He is 4-for-9 with a double, two homers, two walks and zero strikeouts as a pinch-hitter this season. Stanton has changed games even when he wasn’t in the starting lineup. He’s running a career low 30% ground ball rate and his swing is optimized to launch right now (what’s ideal attack angle?):

The Yankees hit five home runs Wednesday (videos), including Stanton’s, which gave them 14 homers in the two-game series. That ties those 1999 Reds for the most in a two-game span in baseball history. Add in the first run Thursday, and the Yankees scored an Expansion Era (since 1961) record-tying 20 straight runs on homers. Which team held the record? Well, several, but the 2000 Yankees did it last.

Nine-homer games are always an outlier, even if you do it twice in a single season. It made for a fun night and the first true laugher the Yankees have had in some time. It was the first time they led by at least eight runs after five innings since June 29th against the Athletics. The Yankees put the game to bed early and cruised to an easy win. I could use a few more games like that these next few weeks.

Schlittler’s flirt with history

18 up, 18 down for Cam Schlittler on Wednesday before things started to get away from him in the seventh inning (and the third time through the order). He’s the first rookie to take a perfect game into the seventh inning since, uh, Jacob Misiorowski on June 20th, but he’s the first Yankees’ rookie to do it since Fritz Peterson on July 4th, 1966. Schlittler’s line against an admittedly weak Rays lineup: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K (video) on 95 pitches.

“Wasn’t really thinking about it too much,” Schlittler told Hoch about the perfect game bid. “… Even when he got the hit, I didn’t really care too much. I’m trying to focus on the next guy. The biggest thing is that we won and put the team in a good position to win.”

I was nervous, yes, though I like that Boone showed confidence in Schlittler and let him face Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe with the tying run on base in that seventh inning. He threw Caminero five straight four-seamers after falling behind in the count 2-0, then threw him a ridiculous (and perfectly located) cutter for the strikeout. What a pitch in a pressure situation:

Schlittler’s cutter looks like a slider at times, but it has cutter velocity and cutter shape (most of the time), and it has replaced his slider too. Schlittler has not thrown a single slider or sweeper in his last two starts. He had trouble leaving up in the zone, so he put it on the shelf. It’s been four-seamers, cutters, curves, and a few sinkers the last two starts. He’s pitching north/south with the four-seamer and curve, and changing lanes east/west with the cutter.

The metrics on Schlittler’s stuff are bonkers. Set the minimum to 30 innings, and here is the starting pitcher Stuff+ leaderboard:

1. Hunter Greene: 125
2. Cam Schlittler: 118
3. Jacob Misiorowski: 118
4. Tarik Skubal: 116
5. Eury Pérez: 116

Stuff+ rates all five of Schlittler’s pitches (four-seam, sinker, cutter, curve, slider) as at least average, three of them (cutter, curve, slider) as comfortably above average. It’s only 36.1 innings, so let’s not go too crazy, but it is frontline stuff. Can Schlittler get to frontline command (only 96 Location+)? That will determine whether he’s a legit No. 1 or even just a high-end No. 2, or a guy who tantalizes and leaves you wanting more. The stuff though, good gravy. He ain’t lacking there.

Even leaving out Clarke Schmidt because he’s hurt, the Yankees have three homegrown starters in their rotation in Schlittler, Luis Gil, and Will Warren. When was the last time we could say that? They’re all good too (Gil’s walk-filled Thursday notwithstanding). Those four have given the Yankees 261 innings with a 3.83 ERA (3.89 FIP) this year. Is it crazy to say Schlittler has the highest ceiling of these dudes? I don’t think so. The stuff is that good.

On playing a man short (again)

Once again, the Yankees played down a man earlier this week. I don’t mean someone was day-to-day with an injury and they couldn’t use him. I mean they played with a 25-man roster after Brent Headrick was placed on the 15-day IL with a forearm contusion Tuesday. Apparently the swelling and soreness from that comebacker (video) last Wednesday lingered and they had to IL him. Fine. It happens.

But the Yankees did not replace Headrick on the roster! Boone said the Yankees couldn’t get someone to Tampa in time for Tuesday’s game, and come on man, the injury didn’t come out of nowhere. They knew Headrick was banged up, and Monday was an off-day for both the Yankees and Triple-A Scranton. They couldn’t get Scott Effross or Ian Hamilton or whoever to Tampa as a taxi squad guy? If Headrick felt better and that taxi squad guy wasn’t needed, back to Scranton he goes. Better safe than sorry, you know?

This is not the first time the Yankees have done this. J.C. Escarra went on the paternity list in late June and the Yankees didn’t replace him on the roster. They played two games with a 25-man roster and a three-man bench. And it would have been nice to have a Headrick replacement in the bullpen Tuesday, no? It was a blowout game and Effross, Hamilton, or whoever could have covered at least one inning, and maybe two. Instead, the Yankees had to dip into their core relievers with a 10-run lead.

We don’t need the benefit of hindsight and knowing Tuesday’s game was a blowout to say not replacing Headrick was a bad idea. Bottom line, playing with a full roster while in a postseason race is not too much to ask. Headrick’s injury was not a secret and both the Yankees and their Triple-A affiliate had an off-day Monday. I say again: The Yankees are not beating the complacency allegations anytime soon.

(Allan Winans was called up to replace Headrick on Wednesday. The Yankees optioned him Thursday and signed Paul Blackburn, who the Mets released earlier this week. Joel Sherman says Blackburn was supposed to join the Yankees in Tampa on Wednesday, but had travel issues. This boils down to the Yankees liking Blackburn, who allowed 19 runs in 23.2 innings for the Mets, as a long man more than Winans. This is temporary anyway with Fernando Cruz and Ryan Yarbrough rehabbing.)

Miscellany

I admit it, I thought Devin Williams was gonna blow Wednesday's games after the single and double, but what a recovery. Three straight strikeouts against the 1-2-3 hitters (video) to strand runners at second and third. Chandler Simpson (9.8%) and Yandy Díaz (15.2%) don’t strike out much at all either. Heck of an outing for Williams, even if I’m still not comfortable when he’s on the mound … Two home runs for Austin Wells on Wednesday (video), both on hanging breaking balls. He didn’t hit breaking balls at all the last two months. Doing what you’re supposed to do to hangers is a good sign. Obvious statement is obvious: Wells getting on track even a little bit (like, say, a 90 wRC+) would be such a nice lift at the bottom of the lineup … Speaking of the catchers, both of them took a beating at the plate and behind it on the road trip. They got nailed by foul balls on defense and Ben Rice in particular fouled what seemed like two pitches an at-bat into his leg/foot. Rough road trip for Rice and Wells physically … The Yankees traded for three relievers at the deadline and only one of them is any good. Jake Bird has already been banished to Triple-A (where he’s allowed six runs in 4.2 innings) and Camilo Doval has allowed nine runs in 7.1 innings as a Yankee. He’s been scored on in four of his last five appearances. Cruz and Yarbrough can not come back soon enough … The Yankees walked nine batters Thursday, including the 7-8-9 hitters a combined five times. The pitching staff has a 10.7% walk rate in August, second highest in baseball. That is way, way, way too high … What’s the point of Amed Rosario if you’re not going to pinch-hit him for Jazz Chisholm Jr. with the tying run at third base and one out in the seventh inning? I’m not sure you could draw up a better situation for Rosario, who has a 9.0 K% against lefties (Rosario was on deck to pinch-hit for Rice when Thursday’s game ended) … Judge crossed George M. Steinbrenner Field off the list. He did the same with Busch Stadium earlier on the road trip. Nationals Park and Wrigley Field are the only active parks Judge has yet to go deep in, and Judge did hit a homer in Nats Park in the 2018 All-Star Game … And finally, Bellinger played all three outfield positions Tuesday. That isn’t that rare (Myles Straw did it last week), but no Yankee had done it since Ichiro Suzuki on Sept. 9th, 2012. Look at some of the names in that box score. I wrote way too much about Cory Wade that season.

Injury updates

Cruz (oblique) made his third rehab appearance Tuesday: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K (video) on 16 pitches. He will pitch in another rehab game Friday and could return after that … Yarbrough (oblique) made his second rehab start Wednesday: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K on 50 pitches. He’ll make one more rehab start. Pitching Tuesday and would line Yarbrough up perfectly to be activated and available when rosters expand on Sept. 1st … Jonathan Loáisiga (back) felt something in his elbow/triceps, and he has been pulled off his rehab assignment. He went for an MRI and “probably” has a flexor strain, per Boone. Loáisiga will go for a second opinion and all that. This likely ends his season and his time with the Yankees. Bummer. (The Yankees have a $5M club option for 2026 they will obviously decline) … And finally, Oswaldo Cabrera (ankle) has resumed baseball activity. That activity: Throwing out the first pitch at a Double-A Somerset game (video). Cabrera told Greg Johnson he will begin real baseball activity “soon,” though he’s currently in a cool down period because the cartilage isn’t ready for the workload. It’s still very unlikely Waldo returns this year.

Up next

The final three games of this Red Sox series, then a six-game stretch against the 52-75 Nationals and 45-82 White Sox. The early September schedule is a nightmare. Banking wins against the Nats and ChiSox will be imperative. Here’s the weekend ahead:

• Friday vs. Red Sox: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Brayan Bello (7pm ET on Amazon, MLB)

• Saturday vs. Red Sox: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Garrett Crochet (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday vs. Red Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Dustin May (7pm ET on ESPN)

• Monday vs. Nationals: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)

The Yankees won Warren vs. Luis Castillo, Warren vs. Seth Lugo, and Warren vs. Logan Gilbert games this year. Might as well add Warren vs. Crochet to the list. I’m setting the over/under on the number of errors this stupid team makes the rest of the Red Sox series at 7.5.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Andrew Marchand (subs. req’d) reports MLB is selling MLBtv to ESPN. I have no idea what this means for fans, though I’m sure everything will get more expensive and worse. When’s the last time one of these major media deals actually improved things for consumers? Assume it’ll get worse and/or more expensive, and if the product actually improves, then the end times are upon us. 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Matt asks: My social media feed has been full of “Cal Raleigh is AL MVP” threads with the primary justification being “he’s a catcher doing this,” or “Aaron Judge MVP fatigue.” Raleigh is having a special year no doubt, but based on the stats this take seems crazy as he only leads in HR/RBI and does DH quite a bit. The Judge fatigue angle also seems ridiculous as MLB doesn’t seem to have Shohei Ohtani fatigue regarding MVP or any topic about him! Maybe it’s my Yankee fan bias, the 2017 MVP travesty, but who would you vote for AL MVP? (Can’t recall if you get a vote)

No awards vote for me. The BBWAA’s New York chapter is huge and awards votes go to the beat writers who cover teams and travel all year. I would love a vote one of these years, but I understand why they go to who they go to. No complaints about the system here.

Anyway, at this time last year we were talking about Bobby Witt Jr. stealing MVP away from Judge, then Witt cooled in September (cooled as in a 127 wRC+) and it was clear Judge would win. I think the Raleigh for MVP talk this year is louder than the Witt for MVP talk last year and I get it. Witt’s season was terrific. Raleigh’s will be historic. He’s gonna set the catcher single-season home run record any day now. Raleigh’s gonna hit 50-something (60-something?) homers as a catcher. That’s nuts.

Here is the FanGraphs AL WAR leaderboard entering play Thursday (FanGraphs because it includes catcher framing and is most fair to Raleigh):

1. Aaron Judge: +7.5 WAR
2. Cal Raleigh: +7.1 WAR
3. Bobby Witt Jr.: +6.1 WAR
4. Tarik Skubal: +5.9 WAR
5. José Ramírez: +5.3 WAR

Raleigh is right there with Judge. WAR is not precise enough to consider a 0.4-win difference meaningful. If it stays that close, then it becomes a narrative race, and the Mariners and Yankees are neck-and-neck in the standings. Does one guy pick it up in September and push his team ahead of the other’s? Does one team win the division while the other gets stuck in the Wild Card Series? When the race is close, and this one is right now, it opens up to all sorts of unpredictable factors. Team success, who’s nice to the media, etc.

I think voter fatigue is a talking point more than a real thing. Ohtani wins MVP every year, Clayton Kershaw won three Cy Youngs in a four-year span, Randy Johnson won four straight Cy Youngs, Barry Bonds won four straight MVPs, etc. The years Mike Trout got snubbed, it was because the Angels missed the postseason, and voters went for (excellent) players on contending teams. I’m not sure Trout fell victim to fatigue as much as he did from the Angels being incompetent.

I don’t think we have to worry about fatigue with Judge. Raleigh might legitimately have a better season when it’s all said and done, and narrative reasons could push him ahead too. If I had a vote, I would vote for Judge right now, in mid August. Circle back after the season and I can’t say for sure I would have the same answer. A Raleigh vote would be plenty reasonable given what we know right now. Still lots and lots of time for the awards races to take shape.

Rob asks: Is it just me or are others getting a DJLeMahieu vibe from Cody Bellinger?  I mean, a true god-send when he arrives, eventually signs a lucrative free agent contract and then ends up being DFAed with more than a year left on that contract?

Yeah, I could see it. Bellinger is one of those “very good but not elite player entering his 30s” that I always worry about. Long-term contracts for those guys are the worst contracts handed out every winter (Willy Adames and Anthony Santander last offseason). Would I take Bellinger for 2026-28, his age 30-32 seasons? Yes, in a heartbeat. Do I want his age 34+ seasons too? No. A lot of his value is tied up in his defense and the early 30s is when that starts to slip.

The Yankees prefer long-term contracts to keep the average annual salary and thus luxury tax number down, and I guess we should give them credit for being willing to release these guys when they’re no longer useful (LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, etc.). If they’re willing to do that with Bellinger down the line, maybe I shouldn’t complain about a long-term contract. It ain’t my money, but I’d rather go short-term with a big salary, and limit the downside. Pay top dollar for peak years and nothing for decline years.

Andrew asks: Any news on where DJ LeMahieu and Marcus Stroman will end up? Figured they would have found a home shortly after the trade deadline. Are they goners from the league?

Last month Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported LeMahieu was planning to wait until after the deadline to sign, and there have been zero updates since. He’s still unsigned. As for Stroman, it’s been radio silence since the Yankees released him on Aug. 1st. Not a single rumor. I thought Stroman would hook on somewhere relatively quickly given the perpetual need for pitching. I mean, the Braves traded for Carlos Carrasco. Is there really no team Stroman can help? I guess not. LeMahieu and Stroman have until 11:59pm ET on Sunday, Aug. 31st to sign and be postseason-eligible. Their extended free agencies could mean the game is done with them.

Greg asks: With all the effort teams seem to put into workload management for young pitchers. Why don't guys like burns and misiorowski simply start the season later ? Limiting a starter to 3 innings an outing or phantom IL stints, doesn't seem to do the pitcher or the team any good. Also. It doesn't seem to work. 

The Pirates kinda did this with Paul Skenes last year. They brought him along slowly in Spring Training and early in the season in Triple-A. Skenes made seven Triple-A starts before being called up and his pitch counts were 46, 44, 55, 65, 71, 75, and 66, then 85 in his MLB debut. The Pirates are bad at a lot of things, but they did a really good job putting Skenes in position to throw a full season last year. He pitched right through Game 162 and got up to 160.1 innings thanks to careful planning.

The risk with having a young pitcher start the season later to keep his workload in check is that he could get hurt at some point, and suddenly you’ve got a guy who throws only a handful of innings and isn’t in position to build up further next year because he started this season late. There really is no good way to do this. Bad teams have it easy because they can just shut a pitcher down if they deem it necessary at some point. Contenders have to figure it out along the way, like the Brewers with Jacob Misiorowski.

Major shoulder injuries have been on the decline for years and that’s good. Those can be career-killers. Elbows are fixable. Shoulders are more tricky. This is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy though. Teams keep workloads down with good intentions, but less work means the pitcher can go max effort more often, and max effort leads to injuries. It also leads to better results and a better payday. The game rewards max effort, and shorter outings making it easier to do it. I don’t know how you fix it. Teams don’t either.

Larry asks (short version): in your opinion, what are the two most likely landing spots for new MLB franchises?  And how would you realign the divisions? Any city more likely to go AL vs NL (not that it matters as much these days with the universal DH)

Mark asks: There is a lot of talk about realignment. What's your opinion on that and if they were to realign the teams, what would yours look like?

Gonna lump these two together. There are groups trying to bring expansion teams to Nashville, Orlando, Portland, and Salt Lake City. Probably other cities too. I don’t know what makes the most sense from a market size and economic perspective for the league, but Austin or San Antonio seems like a pretty good spot to put a team. Lots of people, growing community, etc. Portland would fill a gap in the Pacific Northwest. We can’t put a team in Orlando. The last 30+ years show us Major League Baseball doesn’t work in Florida. (If anything, move the Rays to Nashville.)

Geographical realignment has been a hot topic this week because Rob Manfred brought it up during an appearance in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth last weekend. He mentioned it as a “yeah, whenever we expand, we can look at realignment” thing, not as a firm “we want to realign.” Manfred has said he wants the expansion wheels to be in motion by time he retires in 2029. Adding two teams allows you to create eight four-team divisions, so some level of realignment is inevitable.

"I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically realign," Manfred said. "I think we could save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel. And I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN, because you'd be playing out of the east and out of the west."

My preference would be to keep the American League and National League, but if the leagues go away and MLB moves to an Eastern Conference and Western Conference format, I’d get over it. I took a quick stab at pure geographic alignment at CBS. That’s a straightforward “these teams are close together, so they’re going in the same division” attempt. Here is an attempt at realignment while preserving the AL and NL as best I can, and also preserving historic rivalries (Cardinals/Cubs, Dodgers/Giants, etc.):

Put the AL South expansion team in Austin or San Antonio and the AL West expansion team in Portland, and we’re set. The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rockies, and Royals have to change leagues to make it work, which isn’t the end of the world. The Astros changed leagues in 2013 and the Brewers changed leagues in 1994. The sun still came up in the morning. It’s fine.

Some of this is a little convoluted. The Angels, Dodgers, and Padres are all close together, and then the Giants are 400 miles away. That's the price for keeping the Dodgers/Giants rivalry intact. Cincinnati to Tampa is almost 1,000 miles. The D’Backs are over 1,100 miles away from their three AL South rivals, though that's better than keeping the Angels in the division. Unless you have an unequal number of teams per division (and why would you do that?), some teams are going to draw the short straw. It is what it is.

I dread what expanding to 32 teams will mean for the postseason (eight spots per league, probably), but that’s another topic for another time. Expansion is coming. Everyone wants it. The owners want the expansion fees ($2 billion per team?) and the players want the additional jobs and roster spots. The shortage of pitching makes me nervous, the 30 teams barely have enough arms to get through 162 games now, though that won’t stop anything. And when expansion happens, so will realignment.

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