Thoughts following the 2025 Draft

The 2025 MLB Draft is complete and 615 picks were made across 20 rounds. The Yankees forfeited their second round pick as part of the Juan Soto leaves/sign Max Fried series of moves, so they had 19 selections. They drafted one high schooler and 18 college players, their usual split these days. College heavy is the trend across baseball. It’s not just the Yankees. Here are all their picks.

Last year the Yankees went pitcher heavy, especially early in the draft. They used their first seven picks on pitchers. This year they went with position players early, in line with their 2018-23 draft strategies. Three of their first four picks and four of their first six picks were position players. Overall, they took 10 pitchers and nine position players. The league split is 54% pitchers. The Yankees are right there.

The draft is 20 rounds now, which means no more nepotism picks. The Yankees did not draft Carsten Sabathia III, CC’s son, and neither did any team. Little C isn’t a premium prospect, but, in the old 40-50 round days, the Yankees would’ve taken him in the 40-something round as a nod to his father. Can’t do that anymore. The 20 picks you have (19 for the Yankees this year) are too valuable. 

Now that the draft is complete and I’ve had time to wrap my head around everything, let’s go over the Yankees’ 2025 draft class. I know I said this was likely to come Thursday, but sometimes you get into a groove and the posts seem to write themselves. Let’s get to it.

1st round: Georgia HS SS Dax Kilby

The Yankees used their highest draft pick on a high school shortstop for the third time in seven years. Kilby, who Rob Manfred incorrectly called “Dax Kirby” when announcing the pick, follows Anthony Volpe (2019) and George Lombard Jr. (2023). You’re smart enough to know not to read anything into drafting a shortstop (replacing Volpe???). They’re the best athletes. Every team drafts several shortstops every year.

“Dax is a strong-bodied and athletic left-handed hitting shortstop,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. “We really like his potential and ability to swing the bat, plus, he’s an excellent runner. As a high schooler, Dax has already shown an accomplished bat, a great feel to hit, and on top of that, some pop, which is exciting for us.”

Kilby, 18, was a late riser who entered the late first round/early second round conversation within the last few weeks. In their final rankings, which were published the morning of the draft, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) had Kilby as the No. 23 and No. 28 prospect in the draft class, respectively. The other public rankings had him in the 60-80 range, which were outdated on draft day.

“The deep dive is so much further than what the publications (are) gonna have done,” Oppenheimer told Peter Sblendorio when asked about Kilby’s rankings. “… We’ve had him tested by our performance science people. We’ve had him meet with our mental conditioning department. He’s been down here to Tampa to visit to see what he would be getting himself into. We’ve met with the family.”

Here’s video of Kilby, a bat-first player who was a standout against other top draft prospects in showcase events last summer. He ran an 87% contact rate and 9% chase rate in those events, excellent numbers for that environment. Baseball America (subs. req’d) has the most detailed scouting report:

Kilby is a lean and lanky lefthanded hitter with a sweet swing and a track record of hitting at a high level. Listed at 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, Kilby has plenty of room to fill out and add more strength in the coming years, which should amplify an advanced and polished hit tool. He has an open setup and strides into a closed stance with good rhythm and balance. His bat path is fairly compact and comes without many moving pieces in his load stage, with a steady head throughout the swing that allows him to consistently find the barrel. Kilby pairs his strong contact ability with an advanced approach and an understanding of the strike zone, as well as high-quality pitch recognition. While he’s more of a line-drive, contact-oriented hitter, he has the physical projection to expect average or a tick better power in the future. Kilby is a solid runner who takes a few steps to get going but is above-average underway. A shortstop now, most scouts expect he’ll move off the position thanks to a rigid arm slot and below-average arm strength that will be a better fit for second base or the outfield.

Keith Law (subs. req’d) called Kilby a “superb contact hitter with a short and direct swing that looks like it’ll do the same against pro pitching.” His swing and approach sound like they’re in a good place, and he’s a pretty big kid at 6-foot-2 and 190 lbs. Grow into some power and we’re really cooking. That size is why Eric Longenhagen says Kilby has “uncommon long-term power projection for a left-handed hitter.”

Like most teams, the Yankees keep their prospects at the most valuable position as long as possible. Until they show they absolutely can not handle it. I expect them to send Kilby out as a shortstop. It is a weird throwing motion though (video). If it doesn’t work at shortstop, it’s hard to think it’ll work at third, in which case Kilby’s a second baseman or an outfielder. Perhaps he can make center field work down the line?

Kilby is not a Volpe/Lombard type. Those two stood out for their well-rounded games on draft day. Kilby is a bat-first guy with positional questions. If those positional questions didn't exist, he would’ve been a first rounder, and not available to the Yankees at No. 39. Considering how late the Yankees picked, they did well to get a player with good offensive upside with their top pick. Where Kilby plays is something they can figure out later.

3rd round: Texas A&M SS Kaeden Kent

There were a lot of sons of big leaguers in this draft. Moreso than most years. Eli Willits, the No. 1 overall pick, is Reggie’s son. Eli was around the Yankees now and then when Reggie was the first base coach from 2018-21. Ethan Holliday, Matt’s son, was the No. 4 pick. Wes Obermueller’s son Cade was the No. 63 pick. Benny Agbayani’s son Bruin was the No. 179 pick. Rod Barajas Jr. was the No. 326 pick. On and on it goes.

The Yankees forfeited their second rounder to sign Max Fried and used their third rounder, their second selection, on Kent, the son of five-time All-Star and 2000 NL MVP Jeff Kent. Kaeden is a middle infielder like his father, though he’s a left-handed hitter, not a righty. Kent hit .279/.398/.544 with 13 homers and more walks (14.7%) than strikeouts (13.9%) for the Aggies this spring. 

“Our scouting for Kaeden goes back to the Cape Cod League, where we’ve had success watching college athletes play well in a professional environment,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He also played well two years ago with Texas A&M in the College World Series. He’s a left-handed hitter, athletic, and can really play shortstop, which he showed us this past year. Growing up around his father, Kaeden has experienced elite baseball, so he knows what it takes and has seen what his dad had to do to be a successful ballplayer. For us, Kaeden has made a name for himself.”

Last year Kent was a postseason star, hitting a clutch grand slam in the Super Regionals (video) and going 10-for-24 (.417) at the College World Series, where Texas A&M lost to Tennessee. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of FanGraphs’ free scouting report:

His max-effort, low-ball swing produces uppercut power, and he struck out surprisingly little (14%) considering how hard he swings, though his rate was considerably higher than that versus SEC opponents. Kent is still a possible fit at shortstop. His range and internal clock are currently barriers, as he gets to balls that become singles because he doesn't get rid of them quickly enough, but he's athletic and has a great arm. Third base would be next in the pecking order of positions to try were he to continue to struggle. Realistically is a lefty-hitting utility guy.

Kent, 22 next month, gives off Roc Riggio vibes as a lefty quasi-shortstop type with power in a specific part of the strike zone. Riggio, the Yankees’ fourth rounder in 2023, whales away at pitches on the inner half. Kent’s power works best on pitches down. For what it’s worth, he’s said to be a top makeup and baseball IQ guy, the latter of which is the norm for kids of accomplished big leaguers. Kent grew up in MLB clubhouses.

A player with three years of SEC experience should chew up rookie ball and Low-A, especially these days now that Low-A is almost an extension of rookie ball following MLB’s minor league contraction. The Yankees have used several middle round picks on these lefty college power bats in recent years. Riggio, Anthony Hall, Trevor Hauver, etc. Kent is that archetype to a T.

The build-a-pitcher prospects

The draft doesn’t truly begin until the Yankees start grabbing less-than-overpowering college pitchers in the middle rounds. That’s where they dig up the Cam Schlittlers and Will Warrens, and trade chips like Richard Fitts, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski. The Yankees aren't really special in this regard. You can’t be considered a smart team these days unless you find good pitchers in the middle rounds.

Mississippi State LHP Pico Kohn (5th round) was a touted high schooler who went undrafted three years ago because he wasn’t signable. He was a trusted reliever as a freshman in 2022, then he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery in 2023. Kohn returned late in 2024 and the training wheels fully came off this spring: 4.73 ERA with 32.7 K% and 8.2 BB% in 80 innings. (The SEC averages were a 4.74 ERA and .285/.395/.489 slash line this year.)

Despite that strikeout rate, Kohn is not a huge stuff guy, instead relying on his funky delivery and strong analytical traits (spin, movement, etc.) to miss bats. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Kohn's fastball operates at 91-94 mph and tops out at 95, but it plays up because hitters have trouble picking it up from his low three-quarters arm slot and flat approach angle, and he can throw it with carry up in the strike zone or locate it down at the knees. He has very good feel for a sweeping low-80s slider that he can locate on either side of the plate. He works mainly with those two pitches and occasionally mixes in a low-80s changeup with fade.

Kohn looks more athletic this year, getting down the mound and repeating his delivery better, allowing him to improve his extension and pound the strike zone. There's still room to add more strength to his 6-foot-4 frame, so it's possible that his stuff could tick up further. He's not overpowering but has a high floor as a lefty starter with solid command and good mound presence.

Because of the Tommy John surgery, Kohn’s a bit older than the usual college draftee (23 in October), but age matters less than ever with pitchers. As long as you can get outs, no one cares how old you are, plus pitcher development is so good. Teams will usually find a way to max out your talent as long as your arm is attached, or at least the smart teams will. The Yankees are among them nowadays.

The development plan is pretty clear with Kohn. The fastball has good traits and would benefit from more velocity, something the Yankees have helped guys unlock (see: Schlittler this year). Kohn already has a quality slider and feel for a changeup. The Yankees are changeup masters these days. They take good changeups and make them even better, like Max Fried’s. Kohn’s a great ball of clay for the pitching folks.

Notre Dame RHP Rory Fox (6th round) made the leap from interesting to legit prospect this season, throwing 65.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA and okay strikeout (22.6%) and walk (9.6%) rates. His brother, Luke, was a 17th round pick in 2023 and currently pitches in the Dodgers’ system. Here’s video and here’s a part of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

Fox throws a fastball in the low 90s and will touch 96 mph with decent spin rates. He also mixes in a short slider in the low 80s, a mid-80s changeup and a 12-to-6 curveball in the upper 70s. His slider was his most consistent swing-and-miss pitch in 2025, and he’s always been a good strike-thrower, with a career 7.5% walk rate. Fox doesn’t have an overwhelming tool kit, but his starter’s frame, pitch mix and strike-throwing allow for an interesting foundation for a big league team to try and build upon.

Fox, 21, is relatively inexperienced. He was an all-state quarterback in high school and he was a starting pitcher for only his last 1.5 years with the Fighting Irish. Fox has been a full-time baseball player for only three years and he threw only 120.1 innings in college. The build-a-pitcher thing with him is about helping with pitch shapes and all that, and also just gaining experience and learning how to pitch.

“Being relatively new to pitching and having the stuff I do, I think there’s a lot of potential,” Fox told Dan Zielinski earlier this month. “I’m excited to see, as I continue to refine my arsenal, how I can improve. My goal is to continue to maximize my fastball velocity. The shape it has and the results it has shown to get have been a positive and a strength of mine.”

Texas Tech RHP Max Heuer (8th round) passed on signing with the Guardians as their 16th round pick out of high school two years ago. With Texas Tech, he has a career 6.12 ERA, including a 6.28 ERA with 19.8 K% and 9.5 BB% in 53 innings this spring. The numbers are unimpressive, but college ERA isn’t what teams look at these days. (Example: All-Star Bryan Woo had a 6.36 ERA in three years at Cal Poly.)

Heuer is a big guy (6-foot-5 and 265 lbs.) with more present fastball than Kohn and Fox. He was up to 99 this spring, though the slider and changeup are works in progress. People smarter than me say there's room for improvement with Heuer’s mechanics. It’s a short arm action and he doesn’t extend down the mound all that far, especially for such a big guy.

Kohn, Fox, and Heuer all fit the “we can rebuild him, we have the technology” mid-round pitching profile. The Yankees don’t bat 1.000 with these guys, no team does, but there’s a track record. These kids often look nothing like the pitchers they were in college when they show up in the minors the next year. The Yankees gave Warren his sinker and sweeper. Schlittler sat 90-91 mph in college. Tweaks are coming.

5th round: Utah SS Core Jackson

The Yankees drafted a Dax, a Pico, a Rory, a Mac, and a Core this year. Jackson is a college performer (career .328/.424/.517) with legit tools, including strong top end exit velocities and good shortstop defense. His contact rates are very good, though he is prone to chasing out of the zone. Good contact rates plus too much chase leads to weak contact, not swings and misses.

Still, Jackson can play shortstop and put a charge into the ball as a right-handed hitter, which is a good get in the fifth round. He’ll turn 22 in October and is a senior. Jackson played a year at a junior college in Arizona, a year in Nebraska, and two years at Utah. College seniors almost always sign below slot because they lack leverage. I strongly suspect Jackson will sign below slot and the Yankees will funnel the money elsewhere, possibly to Heuer, who is a draft-eligible sophomore.

The Bronx kid

The Yankees drafted a kid from their own backyard. Alabama OF Richie Bonomolo Jr. (7th round) grew up in the Bronx and attended Cardinal Hayes High School a couple blocks south of Yankee Stadium. He played two years at Wabash Valley College in Illinois and helped them reach the Junior College World Series in 2023. Bonomolo made his way to Alabama this spring and hit .311/.416/.526 with eight homers and 16 steals in 59 games.

Bonomolo, 21 and a bit undersized at 5-foot-11 and 190 lbs., is a ‘tweener who doesn’t have the power for an outfield corner nor the speed and defensive chops for center. That is usually the kinda college player you get in the seventh round. Still, it would be cool for a Bronx kid drafted by the Yankees to reach the big leagues. Think of the Roll Call: “Bo-No-Mo-Lo clap clap clapclapclap.” Let it be done.

Late round notables

UNC Charlotte RHP Blake Gillespie (9th round) faced the minimum in an 11-strikeout no-hitter against James Madison in March. He’s a slider monster. It’s a wipeout pitch that dives down rather than sweeping away. Gillespie threw it more than half the time this spring even though he’s a starter who racked up 100.1 innings, and 99 of his 131 strikeouts can on the slider.

Gillespie has a low-90s fastball, and he broke out a changeup from time to time before he went all-in on the slider. Maybe he belongs in the build-a-pitcher section, though my hunch is the Yankees will stick Gillespie in the bullpen and tell him to throw the crap out of that slider, and see where it takes them. Plus that delivery looks reliever-y. If he does go to the bullpen, I would expect big strikeout numbers in the low minors.

Indiana RHP Ben Grable (11th round) returned from injury this spring and moved into the rotation, where he had a 4.31 ERA with 26.2 K% and 7.0 BB% in 56.1 innings. He’s a fastball guy who’s been up to 97 mph and checks the analytical boxes. There’s also a slider. I think a move right back to the bullpen is possible. Grable is a fifth year senior, not that it will matter for bonus pool reasons. He won’t get an above slot bonus and the 11th round isn’t tied to the bonus pools.

Southern Louisiana RHP Brennan Stuprich (14th round) is a graduate student and one of the oldest players drafted this year (24 in November). He’s an interesting dude though. He had Tommy John surgery a few years back and last season he had a 2.87 ERA with 13.8 K% in 84.2 innings. Last week Stuprich told Richie Mills not getting drafted last summer was a wake-up call, and that the 13.8 K% wasn’t going to cut it.

“It hit me pretty hard. I realized it was a wake-up call,” he told Mills. “… I vividly remember one thing (my head coach) said: ‘We’re going to make them pick you this year.’”

Stuprich changed his pitch mix this year, leaning more on his slider and curveball than his low-90s fastball, and jumped up to a 29.7 K%. He’s maxed out physically (5-foot-10 and 210 lbs.) and throws with effort, so this might be a “what you see is what you get” situation, but hey, Stuprich showed he can be self-critical and adjust. Those are valuable skills in this game.

Texas Tech RHP Jack Cebert (15th round) sits low-90s and his breaking ball sometimes looks like a slider and sometimes looks like a curveball. He moved to the bullpen this season, but routinely worked 3-5 innings, so his velocity didn’t jump. The expectation is Cebert will become a bog-standard 95-and-a-slider reliever in short order under pro instruction, and once he starts working one-inning bursts. 

Texas JuCo RHP Hayden Morris (19th round) is Yankees-sized (6-foot-8 and 265 lbs.) with a big arm. He was 94-98 mph with spin and an upper-80s slider this spring. Morris had Tommy John surgery in high school and his control and delivery are unrefined, partly because he’s so big and partly because baseball is hard. In the 19th round, there are worse dice rolls. Morris is only 20 and he can bring it. 

The rest of the class

Houston 2B Connor McGinnis (10th round) missed a month with an injury this season and is a scout’s favorite because he’s a smart, hard-nosed player. It’s a plate discipline/doubles offensive profile with okay defense, and enough aptitude to move around to different positions … Liberty OF Camden Troyer (12th) had 10 homers and an 8.4 K% this year. The exit velocities are fine, not amazing, and this year is the first time he showed anywhere near double-digit much pop … West Virginia 1B Kyle West (13th) slashed .339/.487/.601 with 11 homers this spring. He went from 9.5 BB% and 29.0 K% last year to 19.5 BB% and 17.4 K% this year. West’s exit velocities are excellent, and it wasn’t until this year that he paired them with a semblance of an approach. Troyer and West are college seniors a little on the older side … Missouri SS Jackson Lovich (16th) played every position except pitcher, catcher, and left field in college. He’s another exit velocity guy, albeit one with too much swing and miss in his game (24.1 K%) … Virginia RHP Ryan Osinski (17th) stands 6-foot-6 and 235 lbs., sits anywhere from 91-100 with an okay slider, and is a full-time reliever who walked 14 batters in 21 innings this spring … Louisville LHP Justin West (18th) is another full-time reliever. He had a 31.5 K% this year and is low-90s with a slider and a changeup … USC SS Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek (20th) is Mark’s son. He’s similar to his father as a slick gloveman who doesn’t do a whole lot at the plate. Turns out I can still spell Grudzielanek off the top of my head. I’m rooting for him to make it for that reason.

About the money

Here’s where I say the Yankees will sign every pick in the top 10 rounds and not to worry about the bonus pool. They made those picks knowing exactly what it will take to sign each player. The Yankees have never failed to sign a pick in the top 10 rounds in the bonus pool era (since 2012) and there’s no reason to think that will change this year. If it does, it’ll be a shocker.

The signing deadline is 5pm ET on Monday, July 28th. Not even two full weeks away. Here are the slot values for the top 10 rounds, the rounds tied directly to the bonus pool:

1st round (No. 39): SS Dax Kilby ($2,509,500)
3rd round (No. 103): SS Kaeden Kent ($744,400)
4th round (No. 134): LHP Pico Kohn ($550,300)
5th round (No. 164): SS Core Jackson ($411,100)
6th round (No. 194): RHP Rory Fox ($319,800)
7th round (No. 224): OF Richie Bonomolo Jr. ($252,100)
8th round (No. 254): RHP Mac Heuer ($212,500)
9th round (No. 284): RHP Blake Gillespie ($196,600)
10th round (No. 314): 2B Connor McGinnis ($187,300)

Jackson is a senior and very likely to come in below slot. Heuer is a draft-eligible sophomore, so maybe the savings are going to him. I dunno. The Yankees have an $5,383,600 bonus pool and can nudge that up to $5,652,780 with the 5% overage, which they’ve spent every year of the bonus pool era. The only mystery is how that money will be distributed, and frankly that’s irrelevant to us. I'll have a signings recap after the deadline.

About the farm system

The top of the farm system looks much different than it did when I ran my Top 30 Prospects in February. My No. 1 (OF Jasson Domínguez) and No. 7 (RHP Will Warren) prospects graduated to the big leagues, my No. 4 prospect (SS Roderick Arias) has been terrible, and my No. 6 (RHP Bryce Cunningham), No. 8 (RHP Chase Hampton), and No. 10 (LHP Henry Lalane) prospects are hurt. Yeesh.

With the caveat that I haven’t spent much time thinking about how the system shakes out right now, here’s how I would lay out the top 10 Yankees prospects at the moment:

1. SS George Lombard Jr.
2. OF Spencer Jones
3. RHP Cam Schlittler
4. RHP Carlos Lagrange
5. RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
6. RHP Ben Hess
7. SS Dax Kilby
8. RHP Bryce Cunningham
9. RHP Chase Hampton
10. C Rafael Flores

Yes? No? Maybe? Lombard is the clear No. 1. Jones seems to be figuring some things out. You could put him, Lagrange, and Schlittler in the 2-4 spots in whatever order, and I wouldn’t argue. After that it’s healthy pitchers, Kilby, injured pitchers, everyone else. Kilby over Hess? Okay, that’s defensible. I don’t think you can go any higher than that though. Not above Rodriguez-Cruz, who was promoted to Double-A Somerset last week.

No other drafted prospects are top 10 worthy and I think Kent and Kohn are the only guys likely to land in a post-draft top 30 list, wherever you find those. Maybe Fox, though I have to stop overrating the build-a-pitcher guys and see them actually level up before pushing them up the rankings. (I got burned by Gage Ziehl this year.)

Final thoughts

These days I try to avoid good pick/bad pick and good draft/bad draft declarations because, ultimately, we have so little information as outsiders, plus player development is so good. These kids get drafted, teams go to work on them, and then the next year they look like completely different players. Especially pitchers. There is value in the public draft prospect rankings, but we shouldn’t take them as gospel.

Most years I develop an affinity for a prospect (or two or three) and hope the Yankees draft that player. That didn’t happen this year. The No. 39 pick is so late that there was no sense in hoping for anyone in particular. I’m a fan of Southern Mississippi RHP JB Middleton, who went No. 45 to the Rockies, though I didn’t have my heart set on him, nor was I majorly bummed out when the Yankees passed.

I like the Kilby pick and am glad the Yankees got someone with offensive upside at No. 39 rather than the sorta boring, reliable, unremarkable college bats you usually find just outside the first round. Kohn and Fox in particular are good candidates to make a leap under pro instruction. The later rounds are standard fare. Pitchers will control problems, hitters with swing and miss issues, etc. Nothing remarkable there.

The Yankees went back to position players in the early rounds this year, similar to their 2018-23 drafts, so for the moment the pitcher heavy 2024 class is an outlier. The talent pool plays a part in that (this wasn’t a great draft for second tier college starters), but bats earlier and pitchers late is a common strategy in this era of sophisticated pitcher development. What the Yankees did this year is more familiar.

“We think that we put the right kind of ingredients into the player development systems to give us a chance for Major League players,” Oppenheimer told Sblendorio. “And then we were able to spread out and do the depth that we think that we do a nice job in with some pitching further down that develops. Hopefully there’s a Cam Schlittler or a Will Warren or something like that that we nailed down there too.”