July 1st, 2025: Blue Jays, Schmidt, Gil, Grisham, Cruz

The “should the Yankees demote Jasson Domínguez?” poll is closed and two-thirds of you responded no. I’m among the no votes. There’s just no obvious replacement. He’s one of the four best outfielders in the organization and belongs on the MLB roster. Since that poll went live, Domínguez is 9-for-21 (.429) with two doubles. I expect a cut of your postseason share, Jasson. Anyway, I think the speaker volume was turned down at Yankee Stadium this past weekend. The non-stop noise between pitches is still there, but I think the volume is down around 8 now rather than cranked to 11. It’s a start. Here now is today’s post. It’s shorter than usual only because I broke the trade deadline primer out into its own post.

1. Weekend thoughts. Friday night’s win marked the halfway point of the season for the Yankees. They were 47-34 through 81 games, putting them on pace to go 94-68, matching last year’s record. Here’s where the Yankees ranked through 81 team games:

• +113 run differential (1st in MLB by 16 runs)

• 5.06 runs scored per game (4th in MLB)

• 3.67 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB)

• +8.1 starting pitcher WAR (4th in MLB)

• +3.3 relief pitcher WAR (8th in MLB)

• +17.0 position player WAR (4th in MLB)

• +29 defensive runs saved (6th in MLB)

• -2.7 baserunning runs (23rd in MLB)

The Yankees are the only team in baseball to rank top five in runs scored and runs allowed per game. The baserunning still stinks overall, but at least it’s regular bad now instead of the worst in baseball. Regular bad counts as progress. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.

An annoying loss in Toronto

Monday’s loss was one of those losses made possible by everything the Yankees don’t do well. In one game we witnessed:

• Aaron Boone getting burned by going batter-to-batter with his starter. Carlos Rodón was pulled after allowing a leadoff double in the sixth, putting the comeback rally in motion.

• Anthony Volpe being the dumbest good defender in baseball. Why did he throw to third on this play? Why did he throw to first on this play? Part of being a good defender is knowing when you don’t have a play, and need to hold onto the ball.

• The second baseman playing third base (who did not not play any third base in Spring Training) getting eaten up by a hard-hit grounder, possibly because he’s still growing accustomed to the speed of the game at the hot corner.

• The bullpen not being able to miss bats unless the hitter chases a splitter/changeup in the dirt. Three relievers threw 41 pitches and got four swings and misses, or one fewer than Jeff Hoffman got in his 22-pitch ninth inning.

• The Yankees stranding a small army of baserunners, including at least one runner in the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. 

• Aaron Judge standing on deck when the game ended because he was batting third instead of second.

• The Yankees losing to an AL East team. They’re now 10-13 within the division.

A tour de force of things the Yankees don’t do well costing them. There’s a bad defensive play every game, a reliever who doesn’t have it every game, and a scoring chance going by the wayside every game. I feel like I’ve watched that exact game – Yankees score early, don’t tack on, the other comes back to win – a dozen times this season. How many times can I write the same thing?

The A’s did the Yankees a solid and beat the Rays on Monday, so the Yankees are two games up in the loss column on Tampa and Toronto. They’ll leave Toronto in first place as long as they don’t get swept. I'm not looking behind the Yankees though. Look in front of them. They’re two games behind the Astros for the AL’s second seed and a Wild Card Series bye. What good is winning the division if you don’t get a bye? Yeah, home field advantage in the Wild Card Series is nice, but without the bye, you're a glorified Wild Card team. I want that bye.

The Yankees went 13-14 in June, the third straight year and fourth time in five years they were no better than one game over .500 in June. This is what they do. They start great, drag through the middle of the season, then rally enough to do what they need to do in September. It’s Groundhog Day, both the trajectory of the season and the way Yankees seem to lose the same game over and over. I've watched this movie too many times.

Schmidt’s scoreless streak

Saturday afternoon, Clarke Schmidt had the One Bad Inning that he’s mostly avoided this season. Walk, walk, three-run homer to break the game open. It was only the second time in 13 starts Schmidt allowed four runs, and only the sixth time he allowed even three runs. The season numbers remain excellent: 3.09 ERA (3.77 FIP and 2.66 xERA) while averaging just about six innings per start.

Schmidt’s scoreless streak was snapped at 28.1 innings, the longest in baseball this season, and he came one out short of a hidden no-hitter. He went 8.2 innings spanning two starts between base hits. As for the scoreless streak, it’s the longest by a Yankees starter in a very, very long time. Here are the last four with a scoreless streak of at least 28 innings:

• Clarke Schmidt: 28.1 innings (2025)

• Whitey Ford: 28 innings (1958)

• Don Larsen: 29 innings (1957-58)

• Allie Reynolds: 30 innings (1951)

That is some group of names there. Several Yankees relievers have had longer streaks (Clay Holmes had a 31.1-inning scoreless streak in 2022), but among starters, Schmidt’s the longest since the days of Yogi Berra and Mickey Mantle. I definitely didn’t have that on my 2025 Yankees bingo card. Also, Schmidt brought back his four-seam fastball. It had been on the shelf since 2022.

“This has been a pitch that we’ve been working on and fiddling with over the course of this year,” Schmidt told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). “I’m really happy with where it’s been. It doesn’t always get registered as a four-seamer, so the usage is messed up a little bit. For me, it just gets guys off the cutter, especially lefties. It can be effective versus righties as well for some swing-and-miss at the top of the zone, especially when guys are hunting my breaking ball package. When you can mix up usages and get guys off certain pitches that they’re obviously sitting on, that’s when you find success.”

In 2023, lefties tagged Schmidt for a .303/.375/.500 (.376 wOBA) line with 18.0 K%. The last two years it’s a .221/.318/.378 (.309 wOBA) line with 28.7 K% thanks first to the cutter, and now to the four-seamer. No one on the staff is more in tune with analytics and all that entails than Schmidt. He’s all about optimizing pitch shapes and all that. This is now his third season as a full-time starter and he’s getting better each year. Saturday was a tough day for Schmidt, which has been a rarity this season.

On playing a man short

The Yankees played Friday and Saturday with a three-man bench and a 25-man roster. J.C. Escarra was on the paternity list and the Yankees didn’t replace him. Everson Pereira was on the paternity list and Braden Shewmake was on the injured list in Triple-A, but the Yankees have several other 40-man roster options (CJ Alexander, Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Rodriguez, Jorbit Vivas) they could have called up. They just didn’t. The RailRiders were in Scranton too. It’s not like travel would have been an issue.

“A couple of the guys that we were gonna bring, one got hurt, the other is on paternity leave as well,” Boone told Gary Phillips. “ … It probably didn’t make sense to make a certain move.”

I assume the “certain move” that didn’t make sense was Vivas with the lefty JP Sears pitching Saturday. The Yankees also played a man short last Wednesday because Escarra went on the paternity list suddenly and they couldn’t get anyone to Cincinnati in time for the game. That’s fine. It happens. But there was an off-day Thursday! They had time to prepare for Friday and Saturday and just … didn’t. They opted to play with one fewer bench player, meaning at a disadvantage.

The Yankees won Friday night and lost by seven runs Saturday, so playing with a full roster likely wouldn’t have changed any outcomes. But still, you’ve had a tough month and are clinging to a small lead in the AL East. Playing with a full roster is not too much ask. The Yankees aren’t beating the lack of urgency allegations anytime soon. I can’t believe I’m sitting here writing about voluntarily playing a man short because the Yankees couldn’t be bothered to make a roster move. Good grief man.

Miscellany

I had a feeling Aaron Judge was on the verge of snapping out of his slump when he hit two balls right on the screws Saturday, only for them to be caught on the warning track. Judge then smacked two homers Sunday (video), including one against Tyler Ferguson, a Fresno native who said he wanted to strike out Judge, a Fresno State alum. Listening to Ryan Ruocco tell that story right as Judge connected was pretty funny … Props to Marcus Stroman. He was really good Sunday: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR (video) on 73 pitches. The solo homer came with the Yankees up seven in the fifth inning, so no big deal. Stroman was on a 75-ish pitch limit after throwing 63 pitches in his final rehab start, and he still got through five innings. Nicely done, Marcus … Jacob Wilson against the Yankees: 20.8 K% (5 K in 24 PA). Jacob Wilson against everyone else: 6.6 K% (21 K in 319 PA). Sometimes you just have a guy’s number … DJ LeMahieu is 9-for-48 (.188) with three walks and one extra-base hit (a double) in his last 18 games. He’s down to .239/.312/.319 (82 wRC+) on the season and is a negative on the bases and in the field. It’s getting to be time to send LeMahieu to Ellsbury Island … DFA worthy performance from JT Brubaker Sunday. Came in with a 10-1 lead, faced seven batters, and got one out (on a great defensive play). That forced the Yankees to use four (!) more relievers, including Luke Weaver, the day before beginning an important four-game series in Toronto. Brubaker is still on the roster, but if the Yankees had DFAed him after that, I would’ve understood. 

Injury updates

Luis Gil (lat) threw live BP last Thursday and he’s going to throw 35 pitches or so in live BP on Tuesday. After that, they’ll get together and determine whether he’s ready to start a rehab assignment. It could happen as soon as Sunday … Trent Grisham exited Monday’s game with left hamstring tightness. I think he's going for tests today. As much as I want Jasson Domínguez to play more, losing Grisham would be a blow. He’s the best count-worker on the team other than Judge, and a plus in the field … Austin Wells has a circulatory issue with his finger. Tests ruled out the serious stuff (aneurysm, blood clot, etc.) and he’s expected back in the lineup Wednesday. Wells is fourth in baseball in innings caught. A few days off isn’t the worst thing in the world … Fernando Cruz is back on the injured list with a high grade oblique strain. He hurt himself in the weight room. High grade means it will be weeks, maybe months. Sucks. Righty Geoff Hartlieb, who had a good Spring Training, was called up in his place. He had a 3.34 ERA (3.05 FIP) with 26.2 K% in 35 Triple-A innings. Utility guy CJ Alexander was designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Hartlieb.

Up next

The rest of the Blue Jays series, then the Citi Field leg of the Subway Series. After this series in Toronto, the Yankees won’t leave New York until after the All-Star break. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (3pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Wednesday: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP José Berríos (7pm ET on Amazon)

• Thursday: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Tuesday is Canada Day, hence the 3pm ET start. We’re gonna hear a bunch about Fried being a stopper and pitching well the day after the Yankees’ loss, and he has, but Tuesday will be the fifth time in his last six starts that he’s pitching the day after a loss. Maybe give the ace a chance to extend a winning streak rather than rely on him to halt a losing streak once in a while? Would be cool.

2. 2025 draft prospect: Southern Mississippi RHP JB Middleton. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.test

Middleton, 21, was not drafted out of his Mississippi high school and he spent his first two years with the Golden Eagles in the bullpen. He moved into the rotation this spring and was great: 2.31 ERA with 29.4 K% and 6.0 BB% in 105.1 innings. (The Sun Belt Conference had a 5.42 ERA this year.) In the Cape Cod League two summers ago, Middleton struck out 15 of 33 batters faced. Here’s where he sits in the latest draft prospect rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 58

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 50

• FanGraphs: Unranked

• MLB Pipeline: No. 41

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 42

For what it’s worth, Middleton has been linked to the Yankees in two recent mock drafts (Jonathan Mayo and Kiley McDaniel). When a player goes to a team with a late pick in multiple mock drafts this late in the game, it likely means there’s real interest. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d), which is the most informative:

An undersized righty, Middleton is listed at 6 feet, 180 pounds and throws from a high three-quarters slot with quick arm speed. Middleton’s fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range and will get up to 97 with solid riding life. He has done a nice job holding that mid-90s velocity deep into his outings, which bodes well for his ability to stick as a starter despite his size. Against righthanded hitters, he’s almost entirely a fastball/slider pitcher, but against lefties he dials up his firm, upper-80s changeup more often. The slider is a hard, upper-80s breaking ball with gyro shape that occasionally flashes a cutter look when it crosses the 90 mph threshold and looks like an above-average pitch. Middleton gets around 10 inches of vertical separation from his fastball with his mid-80s changeup. It’s a solid bat-misser that generated a 54% miss rate in 2025.

Every public scouting report calls Middleton a no-doubt starter because he has a three-pitch mix, can get guys out on both sides of the plate, and has good strike-throwing ability. Supposedly there’s a good deal of interest in Middleton in the late first round/early second round, which is right where the Yankees pick. Teams see a solid foundation and also room to clean a few things up and get better.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Futures Game rosters were announced Monday and the Yankees are sending only one player this year: George Lombard Jr. No surprise he was picked. I thought Carlos Lagrange would go as well, but eh, I don’t think his omission is egregious. Plus the Yankees might’ve held him out for workload reasons. Lagrange is up to 61 innings this season, almost as many as he threw from 2023-24 combined (71.1). It’s fine. Lombard will be our reason to watch next Saturday.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)