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May 26th, 2025: Rockies Series, Domínguez, Hill, Quarter-Century Team

Nothing official yet, but it looks like the 2027 All-Star Game will go to Wrigley Field. The Cubs last hosted the All-Star Game in 1990, so they’re overdue, plus they recently completed a big $575M renovation. Toronto hasn’t hosted an All-Star Game since 1991 and the Rogers Centre renovations were just finished, so the Blue Jays will probably get one soon, and I’m sure MLB will give an All-Star Game to Las Vegas as soon as the stadium is ready (assuming it actually gets built). So figure the early 2030s as the earliest possible date for the next All-Star Game in the Bronx? The last was 2008, the final year of the old Yankee Stadium. Future All-Star Game venue announcements are made during the All-Star break, so expect the Wrigley Field thing to be made official then. Here now is Tuesday’s post on Monday because I don’t want to stay up late to finish a post after tonight’s West Coast game.

1. Weekend thoughts. That was a classic “the Yankees play down to their competition” series. The 9-44 Rockies gave the Yankees a real fight twice in three games. Colorado still has not won a series this year, and I suspect this weekend was the closest they’ve come. One win, plus they had the winning run on base in the ninth inning in another game. Well, whatever. A series win is a series win – six straight series wins for the Yankees, that is – and the Yankees have a nice little six-game lead in the loss column in the AL East. Still a long way to go, of course. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Mile high blowout

It took 13 innings for the Yankees to remember the Rockies are on pace for 134 losses (and another nine innings to forget it, apparently). The fifth inning Saturday was their second 10-run inning of the season. They also had one against the Padres on May 6th*. The last time the Yankees had two 10-run innings in one season? 2009. Good omen? I hope so.

“All of us were just kind of feeding off each other,” Aaron Judge told Manny Randhawa about Saturday's 10-run inning. “We were kinda waiting for that big inning since we’ve been here these two games. So it was good to finally get that big inning.”

* Austin Wells had two hits in both 10-run innings. I thought maybe getting two hits in an inning multiple times in one season is rare, but nope. It happens a few times each year league-wide. The last Yankee to do it was Gleyber Torres in 2022.

I’m not sure if my favorite part of the 10-run fifth inning was the Rockies intentionally walking Judge to load the bases (with no outs!) only to face him again later in the inning, or second baseman Adael Amador throwing his glove at Paul Goldschmidt’s single.

“I didn’t have the glove tight on my hand,” Amador told Corey Masisak. “The glove kind of keeps falling. It always falls. I didn’t have it tight and I jumped up. When I jumped up, the glove slipped off.”

Had Amador’s glove hit the ball, it would have been a three-base penalty per Rule 5.06(b)(4)(C), and the under-the-radar fun thing about that rule is the ball is still live even after it is hit by the glove. The batter-runner can try to score. He doesn’t have to stop at third. I can’t remember ever seeing a thrown glove hit a ball. I hope to see it at least once before I turn into dust.

The Yankees scored 13 runs on a season high 21 hits (and five walks) Saturday, and they did it with just one homer. That was Judge’s solo shot to open the scoring in the first inning. The Yankees went 8-for-17 (.471) with RISP in the game, and all nine starters had an RBI. It was the first time all nine Yankees starters had an RBI since a 21-4 win over the (Devil) Rays on July 22nd, 2007. Here’s that box score.

Furthermore, Saturday was already the third time this season the Yankees scored at least 10 runs while hitting no more than one homer. They also did it April 27th against the Blue Jays and May 11th against the Athletics. The Yankees did not have a single 10-run/one or fewer homer game last year, and you have to go back to 2010 for the last time they did it more than three times in a season. They did it six times that year.

Home runs are good! The Yankees lead baseball with 86 home runs and I hope they continue to lead baseball in homers all year. This offense has a little more diversity to it though. I definitely think there’s more room to steal, especially in the late innings of close games, but the Yankees have a little more contact ability, a little more doubles/triples ability, and a little more baserunning ability than the last few years. Case in point:

I’m not saying the Yankees are a good baserunning team. They’re merely below average now rather than the worst in the sport like last year (-17.1 baserunning runs in 2024). They have more speed and athleticism than the last few years. Even Goldschmidt at first base. He looks like Usian Bolt compared to Anthony Rizzo. Did you know Goldschmidt is 48 for his last 50 stealing bases, including 3-for-3 in 2025?

Will Warren had another good start before the rain came Sunday: 4 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K (video) on 57 pitches. That first inning rally was kinda dumb. Jordan Beck kept a ball inside the first base bag for a leadoff double. Ezequiel Tovar swung at a two-strike sweeper here …

… and poked it into center for a single. Warren walked Hunter Goodman on five pitches to load the bases with no outs, which was his biggest mistake of the inning. Then a run-scoring wild pitch on a ball J.C. Escarra could not immediately get to because the home plate umpire was in his way, and a run-scoring ground out. Two runs is two runs, but the Rockies didn’t smack Warren around the park that inning.

Also, holy crap, Warren got 17 swings and misses on 57 pitches! 17 whiffs is good for a full start. Doing it in 57 pitches is crazy. It’s the fewest pitches to 17 swings and misses by any pitcher this season. Here are the highest single-game swinging strike rates this year (min. 50 pitches):

1. Tarik Skubal vs. Rangers: 33.3% (32 whiffs on 96 pitches on May 9th)
2. Hunter Greene vs. Braves: 30.2% (16 whiffs on 53 pitches on May 7th)
3. Will Warren vs. Rockies: 29.8% (17 whiffs on 57 pitches on May 25th)
4. Tarik Skubal vs. Guardians: 27.7% (26 whiffs on 94 pitches on May 25th)
5. MacKenzie Gore vs. Rockies: 26.9% (28 whiffs on 104 pitches on April 19th)

The Yankees generated 38 whiffs as a team Sunday. That is the most in a nine-inning game this season among all teams, not just the Yankees. The previous season high was 34 whiffs. That was done several times, including in that Skubal game on May 9th. So, yeah, that was the most whiff-happy game in the league this year. Kinda surprising the Yankees struck out “only” 13 Rockies, all things considered.

A winnable one-run loss Friday, a blowout win Saturday, and a nail-biter win Sunday. Kinda feels like the story of the season. The Yankees have a +107 run differential. It is their best run differential through 52 games since the 1953 team started 41-11 with a +125 run differential. The Cubs are at +91 and no other team is at even +80. The Yankees should have a few more wins than they do, those early season bullpen meltdowns really hurt, but this team has put belt to ass with regularity.

Domínguez’s good day

Jasson Domínguez had a really great day against Colorado’s lefties Saturday. Granted, Kyle Freeland and Ryan Rolison aren’t exactly Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal, but it’s not like Domínguez has had a tough time only with great lefties. Mediocre lefties flummoxed him too. El Marciano went 2-for-3 with a walk and a sac fly against the lefties Saturday, and took great swings throughout the game (videos). 

Going into Saturday, Domínguez had 10 95+ mph exit velocities against lefties all season, and never more than one in a game. He then had three Saturday. Progress? Maybe? Potentially? Hopefully? Saturday was Domínguez’s best day against lefties all year and not by a little, and maybe it’s a sign he’s growing more comfortable against lefties. That would rule. Either way, I just wanted to acknowledge his good day.

Also, those are El Marciano’s first two singles against lefties this season. He had been 5-for-46 (.109) with four doubles and a homer against them going into the game. I was kinda hoping he would go the entire season with nothing but extra-base hits against lefties, just for the statistical oddity, but if he wants to mix in a few singles, that’s cool too. Domínguez is hitting .243/.343/.426 (119 wRC+) overall.

The Tim Hill problem

I made the mistake of praising Tim Hill on April 22nd. In the month since, Hill has a 4.26 ERA (6.63 FIP) with a 5.7 K% and 51.9 GB% in 12.2 innings. Including inherited runners, a runner has scored with Hill on the mound in six of 14 appearances since April 22nd. That includes Ryan McMahon’s two-out, two-run double off the tippy top of the wall that won the Rockies the game Friday. This ain’t good:

Hill is going through it right now, and because he’s a 35-year-old sidearmer with middling stuff, there’s a chance he’s cooked. I’m not ready to say that, but there is a chance. It can go quickly with relievers, particularly relievers with not much margin of error. Hill throws 97% four-seamers and sinkers. Here are the before and after pitch location heat maps:

Still down in the zone, but more of the plate now, and that’s not good. Also, McMahon has good numbers against Hill: 3-for-9 with a double, a homer, a walk, and no strikeouts going into Friday’s game. McMahon seems to see Hill pretty well. I know the bullpen was short that night, but the Yankees did have another lefty available (Brent Headrick). It was a gut feel/trust over numbers move, I guess, and it backfired. 

Relievers slump too and I hope that’s all this is for Hill, a slump. I would like the Yankees to back off him in high leverage spots for the time being, but I know what won’t happen. When Aaron Boone demotes someone out of high leverage, he still uses him in important spots, just earlier in the game. It is what it is. Hill becoming a liability is unfortunate. I hope he wakes up soon. If he doesn’t, it’ll be DFA time. The leash isn’t endless.

Miscellany

Judge in Coors Field went exactly how you’d expect: 5-for-12 with a double, two homers (videos), and two walks. These were his first ever regular season games in Denver (he played there in the 2021 All-Star Game). Before this weekend, the Yankees had made one previous trip to Coors Field during the Judge era. That was a three-game series in July 2023, when Judge was on the injured list after running through the Dodger Stadium wall. Judge has homered in 25 of the 30 current stadiums. He’s missing Busch Stadium, George M. Steinbrenner Field, Nationals Park, Truist Park, and Wrigley Field. Judge did go deep at Nationals Park in the 2018 All-Star Game (video), plus who knows how many times at GMS Field in Spring Training … Max Fried was great again Saturday: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video) on only 83 pitches. The Yankees opted to save some bullets and get him out early with a huge lead. Fried also picked off two runners, giving him an MLB-leading five this season. He’s the first Yankee with multiple pickoffs in a game since Masahiro Tanaka against the Rays on August 16th, 2018. Pickoffs have been tracked since 1987 and the single-season record is 15 by several pitchers. The Yankees’ record is 14 by (who else?) Andy Pettitte in 1997. Not sure Fried will get there, but he sure does have a great pickoff move … One more nugget on Fried: He has a 1.25 ERA in six starts after a Yankees’ loss. That is obviously excellent and is pushing the narrative that he’s a stopper. But Fried has a 1.29 ERA overall this year. It’s not so much that he pitches well after a loss. He pitches well all the time … And finally, here’s a weird one: Ben Rice’s walk Sunday was only his third in his last 80 plate appearances. That’s a 3.8 BB%. He’s walked six times in his last 31 games after walking 10 times in his first 15 games. His chase rate is trending up …

… and yeah, that’ll explain the lack of walks. Benny Barrels is still crushing the ball (94.1 mph exit velocity, 19.1% barrel rate, 58.2% hard-hit rate). Even his outs are loud. He’s been a little too swing happy lately though, and doing pitchers favors by leaving the zone. Hopefully Rice locks his plate discipline back in soon. I don’t want him up there looking for a walk, but three walks in 80 plate appearances? That ain’t enough. Rice surely turned a few would-be walks into outs by chasing outside the zone along the way.

Injury updates

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (oblique) and Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) stayed back in New York to hit against the high velocity machine. They’ll head to Tampa to start taking live at-bats soon, possibly even today. Stanton will do that for at least two weeks before starting a rehab assignment. Not sure what the timetable is for Jazz … Fernando Cruz (shoulder) did his weighted ball work Friday and played catch Saturday. He is eligible to be activated next Tuesday. Sounds like Cruz could actually return after the minimum 15 days … Jake Cousins (forearm, pec) threw a 30-ish pitch bullpen Saturday. Not sure how long it’ll take him to get back to facing hitters or starting a rehab assignment, but he is throwing again … Marcus Stroman (knee) threw off a mound Saturday. They’re gonna see how the knee responds before figuring out the next steps … JT Brubaker (ribs) made his second rehab start with Double-A Somerset Friday: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 0 K on 49 pitches. The results stink, but I don’t care too much about that (yet). Brubaker has thrown 37 and 48 pitches in his two rehab starts, so the Yankees are stretching him out. Ryan Yarbrough’s in the rotation now. Brubaker could slot in as the long man when he returns, assuming he doesn’t get hurt again.

Up next

The West Coast trip moves to the actual West Coast. Three games in Anaheim, an off-day, then a World Series rematch in Los Angeles. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

The Angels are on a heater right now. They’re 8-2 in their last 10 games and they’ve outscored their opponents 63-46 in those nine games. The offense is averaging 6.30 runs per game in those games, and it’s not one or two blowouts propping up that average. The Angels have scored at least six runs seven times during this 8-2 stretch. The offense is clicking right now, even with Mike Trout hurt (again).

Luke Weaver had nothing Sunday. The Rockies were all over his fastball. He’s pitched four times in the last six days, and although the pitch counts were manageable, it showed Sunday. Weaver could use a breather. We don’t want this turning into a Scott Proctor situation. If the offense doesn’t put up a few crooked numbers against the Angels, then maybe give someone else the save chance these next few days, as uncomfortable as it might be.

2. The Yankees’ Quarter-Century Team. Last week Jayson Stark threw some Grade-A catnip at fans and bloggers alike when he ran a piece breaking down MLB’s Quarter-Century Team. The best player at each position 25 years into the 2000s, basically. Here is his full write-up (subs. req’d) and here is the graphic the folks at The Athletic put together:

You can quibble with a few spots but that looks about right to me. Judge vs. Mookie Betts vs. Ichiro Suzuki in right is a hell of a debate. Same with Molina vs. Joe Mauer vs. Buster Posey at catcher. I’d go with Alex Rodriguez over Beltré at third, but I’m a Yankees homer. If we’re focusing on the 2000s only, isn’t Johnson behind Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia, and Johan Santana? Johnson’s 2000-04 peak was insane though.

One thing you learn quickly in the blogging game is when a free content idea presents itself, never pass it up, and something like MLB’s Quarter-Century Team is begging for team-specific Quarter-Century Teams. I am here to provide. We’re going to build a Yankees’ Quarter-Century Team. The downside is the pick is obvious at so many positions, though I suspect that’s common across all 30 teams.

This is not a straight “the best player by WAR at each position” exercise, though I did use WAR as a guide and to make sure I didn’t overlook anyone obvious. My only rules are the player must have played at least 50% of his games at the position, and players are eligible at their most frequently played position. That’s it. One position per player. Here now is my Yankees’ Quarter-Century Team. Come with me, won’t you?

Catcher: Jorge Posada (+38.4 WAR)

Runner-up: Gary Sánchez (+11.8 WAR)

Posada is the fourth best catcher of the 2000s behind Mauer, Molina, and Posey. Depending how much you value framing, perhaps he’s behind Russell Martin, Brian McCann, and J.T. Realmuto as well. Either way, he’s clearly a top 10 catcher this century, and an easy pick for our Yankees’ Quarter-Century Team. Sánchez is the clear-cut No. 2 with Martin and McCann the obvious Nos. 3 and 4 behind him in either order. Then you’re getting into Frankie Cervelli, Jose Trevino, and Austin Wells territory.

First base: Jason Giambi (+22.0 WAR)

Runner-up: Mark Teixeira (+19.2 WAR)

Giambi played more games at first base (501) than DH (373) with the Yankees, including 118 games at first base in 2008, his final season in New York. That last bit surprised me. Giambi was not the defender Teixeira was (very few are), though he did thoroughly out-hit Teixeira. By OPS+, Teixeira’s best season with the Yankees would have been Giambi’s fifth best season with the Yankees. The head-to-head offensive comparison:

Perhaps you value first base defense enough to put Teixeira over Giambi, but I don’t. Teixeira’s best year with the Yankees (144 OPS+ in 2015) was essentially Giambi’s average season with the Yankees. Third place at first base is, uh, Luke Voit? Yeah I’d go Voit over Anthony Rizzo and late career Tino Martinez.

Second base: Robinson Canó (+44.4 WAR)

Runner-up: Alonso Soriano (+10.7 WAR)

Gleyber Torres has Soriano beat in WAR (+15.8 WAR), which he should, because he played 44% more games as a Yankee this century. I’m a peak value guy (longevity matters, for sure, but I love big peaks) and Soriano’s Yankees peak was so good: .295/.335/.536 (127 OPS+) with 44 doubles, 39 homers, and 38 steals per 162 games from 2002-03. Back when the YES Network did trivia, Soriano was my go-to guess when I didn’t know the answer. That dude filled up every column of the box score and was as good a guess as anyone. Canó’s clearly No. 1 here. Then it’s Soriano or Torres in whichever order you prefer, and DJ LeMahieu is fourth. LeMahieu has played 255 games at second and 254 at third as a Yankee (plus 235 at first), so moving back to second base this season made him second base-eligible for the Quarter-Century Team rather than third base-eligible.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter (+47.9 WAR)

Runner-up: Didi Gregorius (+14.8 WAR)

Jeter (2,032), Gregorius (649), and Anthony Volpe (368) are 1-2-3 in games played at shortstop for the Yankees this century. Any guesses who’s fourth? I’ll wait.

It’s Gleyber with 248. Eduardo Núñez is fifth with 138, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the only other player over 100. He played 136 games at short for the Yankees. Volpe is climbing the rankings, but Sir Didi played twice as many games in pinstripes and was a much better hitter at his peak than what we’ve seen from Volpe. I think Gregorius is an easy call for No. 2 here. And, of course, No. 2 is the pick at No. 1.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez (+53.8 WAR)

Runner-up: Gio Urshela (+6.4 WAR)

By WAR, third base has the largest gap between the Quarter-Century Team pick and the runner-up. Chase Headley has Gio beat in WAR (+8.5 WAR vs. +6.4 WAR), but Urshela had the greater peak, and was a much more fun player. That’s not a knock on Headley. He was steady and reliable, though he was pretty boring. Robin Ventura (+5.5 WAR) deserves a shoutout as we’ll. He’s right there with Headley and Urshela as a candidate for the runner-up slot. 

Left field: Brett Gardner (+44.3 WAR)

Runner-up: Hideki Matsui (+20.4 WAR)

Matsui is a universally beloved Yankee. Everyone loves that guy and would take him on their team in a heartbeat. Even Jeter has some detractors in the fan base. Not Matsui though. Left field is a difficult pick even though Gardner has Matsui easily beat in WAR. Matsui had a much greater offensive peak and was a World Series MVP, which counts for something. Gardner wasn’t a bad hitter by any means. He had a nine-year run as a .257/.339/.412 (104 OPS+) guy from 2012-20, and of course his glove was stellar. Normally I lean toward offense and that would point me to Matsui, but I think in this case, the difference in defense and baserunning is massive, and Gardner played nearly twice as many games. Love Godzilla. He was the man. I have to go Gardner here though.

(You could’ve given me 10 guesses who ranks third among Yankees’ left fielders in WAR this century, and I don’t think I would’ve gotten it. It’s Mike Tauchman at +4.0 WAR.)

Center field: Bernie Williams (+14.9 WAR)

Runner-up: Curtis Granderson (+14.9 WAR)

It’s pretty wild how close Granderson and Williams are. They’re tied in WAR and essentially tied in OPS+ (120 vs. 119). The difference is Bernie played almost twice as many games as Granderson as a Yankee in the 2000s, and had some decline years at the end. He still had a few peak years in the 2000s though. Granderson played four years with the Yankees. Here are his numbers as a Yankee compared to Bernie’s best four-year stretch of the 2000s:

Williams never had a 40-homer season like Granderson (who had two as a Yankee), but he was the better all-around hitter, and way more successful in October. Neither guy was a standout defender either. Bernie should have moved to a corner much earlier than he did. Same with Granderson. I love the Grandyman, he's delightful and is one of my favorite players, but Bernie is on the Mount Rushmore of my favorite Yankees. The production is so close that I’m willing to use my personal feelings as a tiebreaker.

Right field: Aaron Judge (+56.5 WAR)

Runner-up: Juan Soto (+7.9 WAR)

No surprise Judge is the pick here. The runner-up spot came down to Soto vs. Nick Swisher (+11.9 WAR) vs. Gary Sheffield (+8.7 WAR), and Soto’s 2024 was the best season by a Yankee other than Judge and A-Rod this century. It was better than Sheffield’s AL MVP runner-up season …

… and certainly better than Swisher’s best season as a Yankee. Swisher had four very good seasons with the Yankees. Sheffield had two great seasons and one injury-shortened season with the Yankees. Soto’s lone season in the Bronx was one of the most productive seasons in franchise history. That’s enough for me to give him the runner-up spot over Sheffield and Swisher.

Designated hitter: Giancarlo Stanton (+9.1 WAR)

The slimmest of pickings here given our “played at least half their games at the position” rule. Otherwise we could put Teixeira at first and Giambi at DH, or Matsui or Sheffield at DH. I guess David Justice is the runner-up here? He managed +3.7 WAR in 189 games as a Yankee while playing 103 games at DH and 85 in the outfield, and he was a godsend in 2000. One of the most impactful trade deadline pickups ever. Now that we have our nine position players, let’s build a lineup. Here's the Quarter-Century Team starting nine:

1. SS Derek Jeter, RHB
2. RF Aaron Judge, RHB
3. 1B Jason Giambi, LHB
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez, RHB
5. 2B Robinson Canó, LHB
6. DH Giancarlo Stanton, RHB
7. CF Bernie Williams, SHB
8. C Jorge Posada, SHB
9. LF Brett Gardner, LHB

That lineup would score some runs, I reckon. Going through peak Judge, Giambi, A-Rod, and Canó in the 2-3-4-5 spots would be a nightmare, then you have Stanton and Bernie cleaning up whatever they leave behind. You know what? Let’s build a lineup out of the runner-ups too:

1. 2B Alfonso Soriano, RHB
2. RF Juan Soto, LHB
3. 1B Mark Teixeira, SHB
4. DH Hideki Matsui, LHB
5. CF Curtis Granderson, LHB
6. C Gary Sánchez, RHB
7. DH David Justice, LHB
8. SS Didi Gregorius, LHB
9. 3B Gio Urshela, RHB

The runner-up lineup looks pretty good! Heavy on lefties through the middle, which is why I stuck Sánchez between Granderson and Justice, but Matsui hit lefties. An underrated fun thing in 2009 was whenever Matsui and Canó hit back-to-back, and the opposing manager would bring in a lefty reliever even though they both hit lefties better than righties this year. I don’t think that would happen now, teams have too much information, but it ruled in 2009. 

Starting pitchers (WAR leaderboard)

1. Mike Mussina (+35.1 WAR)
2. CC Sabathia (+29.4 WAR)
3. Gerrit Cole (+19.8 WAR)
4. Andy Pettitte (+29.6 WAR)
5. Roger Clemens (+18.4 WAR)

The top four is the top four. I’m not sure there is much argument to be made there. Those four guys were the four I expected to top the rotation before digging into the numbers, then the numbers confirmed I’m not crazy. The fifth spot came down to Clemens and Masahiro Tanaka, who were really close overall. So close that they both had a 114 OPS+ as a Yankee. Picking Clemens over Tanaka boiled down to:

Also, as good as Tanaka was in October (3.33 ERA and +12.0% championship probability added in 54 innings), Clemens had a 3.24 ERA and +34.9% CPA in 83.1 postseason innings with the Yankees from 2000-03. Love Tanaka. That guy is forever cool with me. Objectively though, Clemens is the pick for the No. 5 spot on our All-Quarter-Century Team rotation. Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Luis Severino, and Chien-Ming Wang headline the second team rotation.

Closer: Mariano Rivera (+41.1 WAR)

Yes, Rivera leads Yankees’ pitchers in WAR in the 2000s. He’s the franchise leader in pitching WAR too. Rivera’s at +56.3 WAR, just ahead of Whitey Ford (+53.5 WAR) and Pettitte (+51.3 WAR). Rivera was always going to be the pick here. Going deeper in the bullpen, Mo’s setup crew looks like this:

Tom Gordon, Andrew Miller, and Luke Weaver didn’t spend enough time with the Yankees to nudge any of those other guys out of our Quarter-Century Team bullpen. Maybe Weaver gets there in time, but he’s not there now. The five guys above all pitched at least 2.75 years in pinstripes. Gordon’s two full seasons with the Yankees are the most between him, Miller, and Weaver. Pretty excellent setup crew though. That might be the best bullpen among all 30 individual team Quarter-Century Teams even without Rivera.

3. 2025 draft prospect: Tennessee RHP A.J. Russell. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Russell, 21 next month, was outrageously good as a freshman reliever in 2023, pitching to a 0.89 ERA (1.22 FIP) with 44.8 K% in 30.1 innings. He allowed only 16 of the 105 batters he faced to reach base (nine hits and seven walks). That’s a .153 OBP. Tennessee put Russell in the rotation in 2024, but the UCL monster came for him in his fourth start. He had the internal brace procedure last June.

The internal brace usually comes with a 9-12 month rehab but the Volunteers pushed it with Russell. He made his 2025 debut on Feb. 25th, eight months after surgery. They realized that was too aggressive and put him back on the shelf for a few weeks. Russell returned on April 1st and Tennessee has built him up slowly since then. Russell has a 3.38 ERA (2.50 FIP) with 31.6 K% and 8.9 BB% in 18.2 innings this season. Here’s where he slots into the latest draft prospect rankings:

In addition to the UCL repair, Russell also had a relatively minor shoulder issue in 2024. He had a great freshman year, then injury cut his sophomore season short, and his junior season has essentially been a rehab year. Here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Russell has a unicorn fastball that could grade as a true 80 offering if he adds more velocity. It sits at 92-94 mph and tops out at 98 with the best heater metrics in the Draft thanks to an exceptionally low release point, wide angle, significant armside run and carry up in the zone. He can get swings-and-misses inside and outside of the strike zone with his fastball, and on the rare occasions when hitters make contact, they almost never drive it in the air.

A low-80s slider with plenty of horizontal action gives Russell a plus second pitch, though he has yet to show much feel for his mid-80s changeup with sink. He has pounded the zone and dominated when healthy but his durability is a huge question mark, as he also dealt with soreness as a freshman. He has the upside of a frontline starter and the stuff to close games if he can't handle a rotation workload.

Russell is a big dude (6-foot-6 and 223 lbs.) and the Yankees love physically huge pitchers. One of my inside baseball pals said Russell’s a priority guy for their team at the Draft Combine next month. These last few weeks are seen as a rehab period and Russell shaking off rust. He’ll have some innings under his belt come Combine time and teams will get a better look at what he really is (or can be).

For what it’s worth, the public scouting reports suggest Russell has top half of the first round talent. The arm is not really in question. Health is why he’ll (likely) fall out of the first round. The Yankees do not pick until No. 39 overall. Russell could be their best chance at selecting a player whose talent far outpaces that draft slot. There’s injury risk, but what pitcher doesn’t come with injury risk these days?

4. Rapid fire thoughts. First baseman/outfielder Cooper Hummel opted out of his minor league contract over the weekend, and signed with the Orioles. He’s on their MLB roster. The Yankees signed Hummel in early April and the switch-hitter went 8-for-31 (.258) with a double and more walks (nine) than strikeouts (eight) in 10 games with Triple-A Scranton. He also spent time on the injured list. The Yankees could have put Hummel on the big league roster to void the opt out, but eh, he would have been a messy tricky roster fit. He’s a first base/corner outfield guy, and the Yankees are juggling too many of those already. Upgrading the Pablo Reyes roster spot should be on the trade deadline to-do list. I’m not sure Hummel was the answer there. Whatever.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)

Comments

I miss Wang and his sinker.

Spookie

My first thought was Tex>Giambi but Giambi has probably become underrated. He never got back to the heights of his Oakland days or first Yankee season, was a bad fielder, and obviously had controversy but his production was still really good and he was pivotal for the 2003 ALCS. Excluding the bizarre 2004 season he was an on base machine and very productive hitter almost every season and his hitting skills aged surprisingly well.

John G


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