May 12th, 2025: Domínguez, Warren, Bullpen, Goldschmidt, Yarbrough, Judge, Carrasco

Nestor Cortes, Wandy Peralta, and Luis Severino are three of my favorite Yankees’ pitchers of the Aaron Judge era, and they’ve combined to give up 22 runs in 6.2 innings against the Yankees this season. Good looking out, guys. The Yankees are in “every series is two great wins and arguably the worst loss of the season” mode right now and hey, that’s a 108-win pace. I’ll take it. Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday because my days of staying up late to finish posts after West Coast night games are over.

1. Weekend thoughts. Last year Athletics owner John Fisher said he is excited to watch “Aaron Judge and others launch home runs” in Sacramento, and Judge obliged this weekend. Two homers Saturday (video) give him an MLB leading 14 on the season. He also leads baseball in AVG (.409) and RBI (39). Still a lot of season to be played, but the Triple Crown watch is on. Here are a few thoughts on the Yankees’ weekend in Sacramento. 

Domínguez for three (bang!)

There are three areas Jasson Domínguez must improve to take his game to the next level. He has to get better in the outfield, improve against lefties, and also get to his power more consistently. The power showed up in a big way Friday night when Domínguez became the youngest Yankee ever (ever!) with a three-homer game (video). Here’s that list:

1. Jasson Domínguez vs. Athletics: 22 years and 91 days (May 9th, 2025)
2. Joe DiMaggio vs. Browns: 22 years and 200 days (June 13th, 1937)
3. Tony Lazzeri vs. White Sox: 23 years and 184 days (June 8th, 1927)
4. Ben Chapman vs. Tigers: 23 years and 197 days (July 9th, 1932)
5. Mickey Mantle vs. Tigers: 23 years and 205 days (May 13th, 1955)

"Tonight was special. I get a homer from the right side, my first grand slam, my first three-homer game. Today was a really special night that I will remember,” Domínguez, who is the 11th youngest player with a three-homer game period, told Erik Boland. “… I didn’t feel like I was going to have a day like this (during BP), to be honest."

A solo homer left-handed (89 mph changeup), a solo homer right-handed (73 mph curveball), and a grand slam left-handed (97 mph fastball*). Three homers on three different pitch types at three distinct velocities, including Domínguez’s first big league homer as a righty. He’s the first Yankee with a home run from each side of the plate since Neil Walker against the Rangers on Aug. 9th, 2018. Neil Walker, eh?

* The 97 mph fastball came from righty Elvis Alvarado, who I signed to a minor league deal as part of my Offseason Plan. Always a good time when the Yankees cross paths with a rando from the Offseason Plan.

Domínguez went into Friday’s game with two homers all season, though it’s not like he’s been hitting the ball poorly. As a right-handed hitter, yes, absolutely, his contact quality and everything in general leaves a lot to be desired. As a lefty though, he’s hammered the ball:

The kid is two completely different hitters from each side of the plate. Against righties, he’s a beast, with a .324/.407/.541 (166 wRC+) slash line and strong contact quality. Against lefties, he’s a pushover: .119/.229/.286 (52 wRC+) with poor contact. I keep saying he’s too young to give up switch-hitting and I firmly believe that. If this continues all season, giving up switch-hitting will have to be a conversation though.

Anyway, Domínguez has talent and hard-hit ability as a left-handed hitter. It’s obvious. Up until Friday, the power hadn’t really shown up with any consistency though. Look at this heat map:

That big blue splotch middle-middle and middle-in represents a great deal of upside. Domínguez’s hard-hit ability has only shown up on pitches down and pitches away right now. Start driving those middle-middle and middle-in pitches, and the upside is in outer space. We’re not asking for a miracle here. We’re just waiting for a talented young hitter to start punishing meatballs as he gains experience.

“That was incredible,” Aaron Judge told Josh Debow. “Just even going back to Spring Training, the guy goes out there, wins a job. The work I saw him put in on the backfield when no one was really looking on the defensive side, the work in the cage. To see him have a game like this tonight, three homers, is pretty special.”

Domínguez showed us so much Friday. He showed us his power potential, he showed us there’s hope for him as a righty hitter, he showed us he can cover so many pitch types and velocity ranges. That last part is really exciting. There have been 149 three-homer games since Statcast launched in 2015 and only 19 times did the guy go deep on a fastball, a breaking ball, and an offspeed pitch in the same game.

I don’t envy Aaron Boone’s lineup decisions. He has more good players than lineup spots. Domínguez has been so good against righties that he should always be in there against a righty starter. He’s also been so bad against lefties that the Yankees could platoon him, but how is he supposed to get better against lefties if you don’t let him face lefties? It’s a difficult balancing act. For now, all Jasson can do is perform and force the issue. Friday’s game was a glimpse at the long-term upside.

“He just needs to play,” Boone told Theo DeRosa. “It’s just the experience with him. He’s so talented.”

Warren’s long-awaited breakthrough start (I hope)

Will Warren turned in the best start of his MLB career by a frickin’ mile Friday: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video) on 87 pitches. He pitched into the eighth inning after getting only one in the sixth inning in his previous 12 big league starts. The seven strikeouts break down into two on changeups, two on curveballs, and one each on the four-seamer, sweeper, and sinker. A strikeout on five different pitch types is fun.

“I’ve said I'm close (to figuring things out). I meant that,” Warren told Greg Joyce. “I think it comes down to executing our plan, and sometimes you miss a few inches outside, a guy gets on, it can change an entire game. Tonight we executed our plan.”

The difference between Good Warren and Bad Warren is limiting mistakes and pitching on the attack. He mostly kept the ball out of the middle of the plate Friday, especially when he was ahead in the count and had a chance to put hitters away. This 0-2 changeup to JJ Bleday with two on, two outs, and a two-run lead was probably the single best pitch Warren has thrown as a big leaguer:

Look where that pitch started and where it ended up. This is a nasty piece of business:

Warren hasn’t had much trouble getting ahead in the count this year. It’s putting guys away quickly that gives him trouble. A lot of 0-2 counts become extended at-bats even if the hitter doesn’t reach. Relatedly, Warren went into Friday averaging 20.0 pitches per inning, the most in baseball. He then threw 7, 11, 10, 19, 8, 13, and 13 pitches in his seven full innings against the A’s. Keep doing that, Will.

The A’s have a pretty good offense. They’re eighth with a 110 wRC+ and they’ve hit the seventh most homers (51) with the fourth lowest strikeout rate (19.8%). That was a pretty good lineup Warren shut down. It is so clearly not a stuff issue with him. It’s four really good pitches, and sometimes even a fifth. Execution and aggressiveness have held Warren back, the latter of which could be a confidence thing.

One run in 7.1 innings won’t happen every time out, but there’s no reason Warren can’t turn in games like this more often. The ability is there. When he’s on the attack and when his mistakes are off the plate and not in the middle of the zone, he can be a handful with that pitch package. Warren has yet to put together back-to-back good starts this year. Please build on this and let Friday be the start of something.

“Hopefully another step for him and another confidence booster for him,” Boone told Joyce. “I think he knows he can be successful in this league. A night like tonight is validation for that. He was really good.”

The unclutch bullpen

Saturday’s loss was already the Yankees’ sixth when taking a lead into the seventh inning, and their fourth when taking a multi-run lead into the seventh. Both those totals lead baseball. The Yankees have let an awful lot of late-inning leads slip away 40 games into the season. Devin Williams is responsible for a good chunk of those, but it’s not all him. Just about every key reliever has melted down at some point.

“Just unfortunately we couldn’t hold on,” Carlos Rodón told Mark Sanchez after Saturday’s loss. “As a group we need to throw the ball better, including myself.”

As a unit, the bullpen ranks 24th with -0.42 win probability added, and their “clutch” rating is second worst in baseball. Only the awful White Sox are worse. “Clutch” is a fun little stat that compares players/teams to themselves in low leverage and high leverage spots. Perform better in high leverage than low leverage, and you score well in clutch. Do the opposite, and you score poorly in clutch, like the Yankees' bullpen.

Here are the bullpen’s leverage stats entering play Sunday:

• Low leverage: 1.79 ERA (3.04 FIP) with .254 wOBA allowed (85.2 IP)

• Medium leverage: 3.99 ERA (3.09 FIP) with .257 wOBA allowed (38.1 IP)

• High leverage: 13.79 ERA (5.48 FIP) with .416 wOBA allowed (15.2 IP)

Tiny sample of high leverage bullpen innings, that is unavoidable this early in the season, but yeah, the Yankees have really stunk in those spots. And it’s not all on the bullpen, right? There were a couple fly balls that could’ve/should’ve been caught Saturday, plus other defensive mistakes frequently happen with this team. Ultimately, the run prevention in high leverage situations has been poor.

Following up on something I wrote about a few weeks ago, the Yankees rank dead last in bullpen average fastball velocity (92.1 mph). The Rangers are next worst at 92.7 mph, so the Yankees are last by a good bit. They’re also last in 90th percentile fastball velocity (95.0 mph). The league averages are 94.3 mph (average) and 97.8 mph (90th percentile), respectively, and the Yankees are comfortably south of both.

To put this another way, the fastest pitch thrown by a Yankees’ reliever this year was a 96.9 mph fastball by Yerry De Los Santos on Sunday. He's an up/down guy. The Yankees have not had a reliever throw a legit 97 mph fastball this year (i.e. no rounding up). The hardest pitch by a Yankees’ reliever would be tied for the 417th hardest pitch by a Padres reliever. (San Diego’s bullpen leads in win probability added.)

Williams, Fernando Cruz, Mark Leiter Jr., and Luke Weaver are the go-to high leverage options and every one of them – every single one – is 92-94 with the occasional 95 or 96, and relies on deceiving hitters with changeups/splitters. It’s the same general look over and over. Ian Hamilton has labored lately, so his slambio has been ineffective as a change of pace look. Tim Hill is unique, but he is only one man.

Jonathan Loáisiga’s rehab is going well and he could return within 10-14 days. He’s topped out at 96.9 mph during his rehab games, which a) ties the hardest pitch thrown by a Yankees’ reliever this year, and b) is a few ticks south of Loáisiga’s usual velocity. That last part is understandable though. Loáisiga is still building arm strength as part of his rehab. He’s essentially in Spring Training mode right now. 

Hopefully Loáisiga’s return will give the bullpen the big velocity arm they currently lack. Counting on a guy coming off UCL surgery to provide an immediate impact is dicey, but I hope Loáisiga quickly settles in as a high leverage monster. Either way, the Yankees need a big fastball in the bullpen. Someone who can come in and throw a fastball by a hitter. They flat out do not have that tool in their shed right now.

Variety is the spice of life and the Yankees could use more of it in the bullpen. They have a few too many lower velocity changeup/splitter guys and there are perhaps diminishing returns there. Regardless, too many late inning leads have slipped away already this year. The banged up rotation and the offense have put the Yankees in position to win more games than they have. The bullpen has to start carrying its weight soon. 

Miscellany

Saturday was one of those “he was really good other than the back-breaking three-run home run” starts for Rodón. He’s been so good of late that I’m willing to give him a one-start pass. My biggest complaint is Brent Rooker’s three-run homer was set up by a single from No. 9 hitter Jhonny Pereda. Here’s how the Yankees have performed against each lineup spot entering Sunday. I’m not mad, I’m laughing:

Only the Phillies and the very bad Marlins and Rockies have allowed a higher OBP and OPS+ to the No. 9 hitter. I understand No. 9 hitters are Major Leaguers too and they can do damage if you make a mistake, but COME ON. Take those “easy” outs and stop putting guys on base for the top of the lineup please … Paul Goldschmidt more than doubled his season extra-base hit total against righties over the weekend. He went into Sacramento with three doubles, no triples, and no homers against righties. He then hit a homer (video) and three doubles off righties in three games against the A’s. Goldschmidt’s been driving the ball a bit more lately and now there are some extra-base hits against righties. There’s no chance he hits .349 with a .408 BABIP all year, but the underlying data is promising-ish … Ryan Yarbrough’s spot start couldn’t have gone much better. The offense gave him plenty of breathing room and he gave the Yankees two turns through the lineup plus three batters in five innings. Only two runs and 67 pitches too. Yarbrough was great. The Yankees don’t need their fifth starter again until next weekend, so it’s back to the bullpen for him for a bit. He has a 3.70 ERA (4.97 FIP) with a ton of weak contact in 24.1 innings this year. That sums up the Ryan Yarbrough experience well.

Injury updates

Triple-A Scranton was rained out last Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. That threw a wrench into the rehab plan for DJ LeMahieu (calf). He was able to play Saturday and Sunday (at second base again). Will we see him in Seattle tonight? … Clayton Beeter (shoulder) through six rehab games: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 7 BB, 9 K. His 30-day rehab window ends next Monday. The Yankees will activate him off the injured list and option him to Triple-A when the time comes … Marcus Stroman (knee) threw a simulated game in Tampa on Friday and still had discomfort. They’re figuring out the next step now. With each little setback, it becomes more and more likely Stroman takes a trip to Ellsbury Island.

Up next

The West Coast trip continues and concludes in Seattle. The Mariners are 22-17 and in first place in the AL West not because of their pitching, but because of their offense. They’re averaging 4.93 runs per game, sixth most in baseball. The Mariners winning because of offense is the surest sign the end times are upon us. Here’s what’s coming up this week:

• Monday at Mariners: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Emerson Hancock (9:40pm ET on YES)

• Tuesday at Mariners: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Bryan Woo (9:40pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Wednesday at Mariners: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Luis Castillo (4pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Thursday: off-day

Woo is going to throw a no-hitter one of these days. He has a 3.25 ERA (2.92 FIP) with 25.3 K% and 4.6 BB% this year, and it’s an elite fastball. Mid-90s velocity with excellent shape from a lower arm slot that just explodes on hitters through the zone. Woo is the poster child for “teams ignore college stats and draft pitch traits.” He had a 6.36 ERA in three years at Cal Poly and has a 3.41 ERA in MLB.

Beyond the usual reasons, this series is important for postseason tiebreaker scenarios. There is still a lot of season to be played, but right now the Yankees and Mariners are separated by a half-game in the standings. You want to win the season series just in case the tiebreaker is needed to determine which team has to play in the Wild Card Series and which team gets a bye in a few months.

T-Mobile Park and Seattle in general are on my bucket list. Everyone I know who’s been there has told me it’s a top five park and an all-around great city. I’ll get there one of these days. Also, you are forewarned: The Yankees have played an extra-inning game in Seattle each of the last three years (remember this?). One of these games is going at least 10 innings. The baseball gods wouldn’t have it any other way.

2. Why is Judge seeing so many pitches in the zone? Aaron Judge has been incredible this season. I’m running out of words to describe the guy and, as staggering as the numbers are (.409/.494/.779 and 254 wRC+), I’m worried we might become a little numb to this absurdity if I keep listing them over and over. This is, truly, one of the greatest hitters to ever live in the middle of an all-time great peak.

Judge has been out of this world good this year and the last four years, and there is one thing that keeps blowing my mind: Why are teams throwing him so many pitches in the zone? Entering play Sunday, 50.7% of the pitches Judge has seen this season have been in the strike zone. That’s below the 52.0% league average but also a career high for Judge. Here are his year-by-year zone rates:

I’ve been monitoring this the last few weeks and Judge’s zone rate has been over 50% just about all year. Granted, the difference between this year and last year is pretty small, but look at last season compared to 2016-23. Judge saw a career high rate of pitches in the zone last year and now he’s seeing an even higher rate of pitches in the zone this year. You should not want to throw this man strikes:

2024-25 Judge vs. in-zone pitches: .378 AVG and .815 SLG (.509 xwOBA)
MLB average vs. in-zone pitches: .277 AVG and .469 SLG (.326 xwOBA)

2024-25 Judge vs. out-of-zone pitches: .170 AVG and .304 SLG (.431 xwOBA)
MLB average vs. out-of-zone pitches: .151 AVG and .204 SLG (.294 xwOBA)

I thought this might have had to do with Judge batting with fewer runners on base this season. He’s hit with men on in 43.3% of his plate appearances this year. That’s a tick below the league average (44.2%) and well south of last year’s 49.7% (thank Juan Soto’s .419 OBP). With the bases empty, the best Judge can do is hit a solo homer, so it stands to reason teams would be more willing to pitch to him in those spots.

That isn’t really the case though. With the bases empty, 50.2% of the pitches Judge has seen have been in the strike zone. With runners on, it’s 53.6%. Judge doesn’t see many pitches in the zone in high leverage spots (44.8%), but he only has 11 high leverage plate appearances this year. It’s 52.1% in low and medium leverage, so maybe that explains it? Few high leverage at-bats = more pitches in the zone overall?

It’s also important to note the types of pitches Judge sees in the zone are changing. Judge seeing more pitches in the zone does not mean pitchers are grooving fastballs. He is seeing more fastballs in the zone, yes, but he’s seeing more breaking balls in the zone. Way, way more breaking balls in the zone, especially lately:

Judge is bottom 10 in fastball rate and top 10 in breaking ball rate. Pitchers feed him breaking balls and soft stuff in general, and I totally get it. I wouldn’t want to throw him a fastball either. This year more of those breaking balls have been in the zone. Judge again has one of the lowest chase rates in baseball. In the past, when he took a breaking ball, it was a ball. More often now, those takes are a strike.

And it hasn’t mattered, right? Judge is better than ever right now. If anything, more pitches in the zone has contributed to the best version of Judge yet. This is why this has confused me. Why would you throw this guy more strikes? Teams threw him more pitches in the zone than ever last year, saw the .322/.458/.701 (218 wRC+) line he put up, and said hmmm, maybe we should throw him even more pitches in the zone? Whatever, man.

I don’t get it and I don’t care to get it. All I know is it’s happening. Judge is seeing more pitches in the zone this year than any point in his career (more breaking balls in the zone especially), and it makes no sense. You would think he’d see fewer pitches to hit these days, but no. Teams are giving Judge more pitches in the zone and he’s having one of the greatest offensive seasons ever. Thanks to those teams, I guess?

3. 2025 draft prospect: California HS SS/3B Brady Ebel. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Ebel, 17, is the son of Dodgers’ third base coach Dino Ebel, and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft class. He’ll turn 18 about two weeks after the draft. Ebel is one of three players at his high school with a chance to go in the first round, joining SS Billy Carlson and RHP Seth Hernandez. Carlson and Hernandez could be top five picks. Ebel is more of a possible late first rounder. Here’s where he places in the latest draft prospect rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 35

• ESPN (subs. req’d): Unranked

• FanGraphs: No. 31

• MLB Pipeline: No. 56

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): Unranked

Ebel has not had a great spring, though he performed well against other top draft prospects in showcase events the last few summers, so teams have a good deal of background on him. Here’s video and here’s the important stuff from MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Ebel showed he could do a lot of things well, albeit without wow tools, along with some physical projection that could enable his skills to play up. It’s clear he’s been around professional hitters, with a smooth left-handed swing and an advanced approach at the plate. He found the barrel consistently and performed well against high-level stuff over the summer, but concerns about bat speed and impact have carried over to his senior year. There could very well be more power to come as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame … Ebel doesn’t run well and many see a move to third in his future, where he was already playing this spring in deference to Carlson … He does have a plus arm that is impressively accurate and would play from anywhere. His baseball IQ could allow everything to play up

Ebel gives off major George Lombard Jr. vibes. Young for his draft class, tools aren’t loud, mature player who grew up around the game and has already received pro-caliber instruction. Lombard is becoming a pretty good prospect, one better than the draft scouting reports would have led you to believe. Anthony Volpe is cut from a similar cloth. Okay tools, great makeup/baseball smarts. The Yankees clearly dig this profile.

The No. 39 pick comes with a $2,509,500 slot value and the Yankees could stretch that to $3M, maybe even $3.5M with underslot deals elsewhere and the 5% overage on the bonus pool. Would that be enough to buy Ebel away from LSU, a really strong program with a chance for decent NIL money? I dunno. Ebel does seem to fit what the Yankees look for in high school position players, hence the write-up.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Carlos Carrasco cleared waivers and went to Triple-A Scranton rather than elect free agency. I didn’t expect that, a 38-year-old 16-year veteran who’s made a ton of money agreeing to go to Triple-A. Some guys just love the game, I guess. Carrasco was not good with the Yankees, but they’re short on rotation depth at the moment, and it’s not like the starters they do have are workhorses known for avoiding the injured list. You needn’t try hard to see Carrasco returning to the Bronx in the coming weeks. He has not yet pitched for the RailRiders but should get a start soon, possibly tomorrow (Monday is the universal off-day in the minors). Also, Allan Winans started for Scranton on Sunday. It is not a coincidence he was lined up with the TBA spot. If the Yankees needed Ryan Yarbrough in relief Friday or Saturday, they would have used him, and Winans would have come up to make the spot start Sunday. Winans has allowed one unearned run in 19 innings for Scranton.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)