RAB’s 10 bold predictions for the 2025 Yankees

Everyone’s lining up to read this year’s bold predictions.

I swear, it feels like the World Series just ended, but Opening Day is mere days away. Spring Training has not been kind to the Yankees on the injury front, dampening excitement and expectations, but the start of the new season is always a good time. There will be plenty of time later for crushing losses and despair. In a few days, the Yankees will play Game 1 of 162, and anything will be possible.

With the start of the new season upon us, it is once again time for my sure-to-be wrong bold predictions. I started doing these on a whim in 2017 and that year was pretty fun, so I kept at it. I went from 10 bold predictions to five to back to 10 a few years ago. Here’s how I’ve fared over the years:

• 2017: 7-for-10

• 2018: 0-for-5

• 2019: 0-for-5

• 2020: 0-for-5

• 2021: 1-for-5

• 2022: 5-for-10

• 2023: 2-for-10

• 2024: 4-for-10

I’m 19-for-60 overall and I’ll sign up for a .317 batting average every day of the week. Believe it or not, I do put thought into my bold predictions. I don’t want to be lazy about this and give you something like “Aaron Judge will break his own AL single-season home run record.” That’s the easy stuff, you know?

On top of that, I was told last year’s bold predictions weren’t very bold. A pal even texted me a yawn emoji and let me tell you, that cut deep. I tried to ramp up the boldness this year while also staying within the realm of things that could possibly happen because, again, I do want to get some right. Hopefully I found the sweet spot between bold and doable. A wise man said you can’t predict baseball, but I enjoy trying.

One thing I've learned over the years is that predictions, both bold and not-so-bold, should be easily verifiable. Yes or no, black or white. No gray area. Either it happened or it didn’t. This exercise loses a little something when success or failure is subjective. With that, here are RAB’s 10 bold predictions for the 2025 Yankees (in no particular order).

Aaron Judge will be intentionally walked with the bases loaded

It’s gonna happen this year. There were multiple times the last few years when I thought it would happen, but it didn’t. This year, it will happen. At some point this summer Judge will come up with the sacks full in the late innings with the Yankees down a few runs, and the opposing manager will put up four fingers and take his chances with Cody Bellinger or Paul Goldschmidt or whoever.

There are eight recorded instances of a player being intentionally walked with the bases loaded, most recently Corey Seager in 2022. That decision gave us this towering GIF of Mike Trout’s WTF face:

Seager’s bases loaded IBB was a peak Joe Maddon “look how smart I am” moment. It worked in that the Angels won the game, but Seager’s bases loaded IBB came with the Angels down a run in the fourth. The Rangers added two more runs immediately after the IBB, so it didn’t really prevent a big inning. The Texas bullpen had to melt down for the Seager bases loaded IBB to work (“work”).

This bold prediction likely requires a Maddon type in the other dugout. A veteran manager with job security and that “I’m smarter than you, just ask me” attitude. Alex Cora definitely has that vibe, though I don’t think he would IBB anyone with the bases loaded. Same with Kevin Cash and A.J. Hinch. There’s a reason this happens so infrequently. It’s a poor strategy and managers hate being second guessed.

Rather than a smart manager with job security, I say it’s an IDGAF manager, and Ron Washington will issue the bases loaded IBB to Judge. Washington is on his last managerial job and he knows it. He managed the Angels in a very “how dare you question me, I’m a baseball lifer” way last year and threw his players under the bus several times. Washington’s going out with guns blazing.

The Yankees visit the Angels in May (May 26-28) and host them in June (June 16-19). I’ll say the bases loaded IBB happens during the Anaheim series in May, before the Angels really fall out of the race and Washington’s still managing with urgency. This bold prediction says Judge will get IBBed with the bases loaded sometime this year. The Angels/Washington stuff is just me guessing when it’ll happen.

Austin Wells will have a .400 OBP leading off games

When I wrote about Wells as a leadoff candidate last month, I never thought the Yankees would actually go through with it. He hit leadoff for the first time on Feb. 28th, 10 days after my post, and he slugged four leadoff homers in Spring Training. All signs point to Wells hitting atop the lineup against righties. If it works, he’ll stay there. If not, the Yankees will move on to someone else.

For this bold prediction, I say Wells at leadoff will work (at least against righties). So well that he’ll post a .400 OBP leading off games. Set the minimum to 100 games in the leadoff spot and 19 times has a Yankee reached base at least 40% of the time to begin a game. Here are the last five to do it:

• 2017 Brett Gardner: .410 OBP in 139 G

• 2012 Derek Jeter: .407 OBP in 150 G

• 2009 Derek Jeter: .415 OBP in 147 G

• 2005 Derek Jeter: .422 OBP in 154 G

• 2003 Alfonso Soriano: .411 OBP in 141 G

Soriano was something else in 2003. He slashed .362/.411/.777 (221 OPS+) with 13 home runs leading off games that season. Those 13 leadoff homers were the single-season record for all teams, not just the Yankees, until Kyle Schwarber hit 15 leadoff homers last year. Sheesh.

Anyway, the bold prediction has Wells reaching base 40% of the time when he leads off a game. I say this for three reasons. One, I just think Wells is really good, and will take a step forward this year. Two, he is pretty patient. Wells had a 11.4 BB% last year, third on the Yankees behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. When you walk that much, you’ve got a reasonably solid floor, offensively.

And three, it sounds like Wells will only hit leadoff against righties, at least initially. The Yankees are going to give him favorable matchups. Wells was better against righties (11.6 BB%, .327 OBP, 116 wRC+) than lefties (10.4 BB%, .299 OBP, 59 wRC+) last year. A patient hitter who is maturing and gaining experience and will get the optimized matchups when he does hit leadoff is a recipe for a strong OBP.

One possible issue is Wells will hit in front of Judge, and pitchers may pitch him more aggressively in that spot. They could come right after Wells rather than nibble and try to get him to chase, which could cut into his walk rate. Soto had an 18.1 BB% hitting in front of Judge last season, but eh, that’s Soto. Pitchers will always pitch him carefully. I could see them being more willing to challenge Wells. If it happens, it'll be on him to make them pay.

The Yankees have never had a catcher hit leadoff in a regular season game. They’ve said it more times than I could possibly count on YES this spring. It’ll happen for the first time this year and Wells will start the season atop the lineup against righties. I think he’s going to fare well there. Well enough to post a .400 OBP to begin first innings. No Yankee has done that in eight years now.

Jasson Domínguez will be a positive defender in left field

First impressions are hard to shake and the first impression of Domínguez in left field was bad, both late last year and early in Spring Training. He’s been fine the last few weeks with no misplays of note though, and the fact of the matter is the kid does have speed and range. His defensive issues come at the point of the catch. Domínguez looks uncomfortable then, and I’m betting he’ll grow out of it with experience.

How quickly will he grow out of it? No idea, but a) I hope soon, and b) it may have already happened given the lack of left field adventure the last few weeks. I’m betting – boldly predicting – Domínguez settles in as a more than fine left field defender this year, so much so that he finishes with a positive rating. We have four publicly available defensive stats:

• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS available at FanGraphs)

• Outs Above Average (Statcast)

• Ultimate Zone Rate (UZR available at FanGraphs)

• Defensive Runs Prevented (DRP via Baseball Prospectus)

I am not saying Domínguez will be a Gold Glover. I am merely predicting that one of those four stats will rate Domínguez as a positive defender in left field this year. If it’s only +1 DRS, then so be it. I’m claiming bold prediction victory if one of those defensive stats say Domínguez is a positive, even if the other three and the eye test says he’s a negative.

We tend to remember the plays on the extremes, defensively. The spectacular catch that makes a good defender look amazing or the bad misplay that makes a great defender look bad. Domínguez has had a few plays on the negative side of the extreme, and the perception he’s a poor defender will be hard to shake. I’m not sure he’ll do it this year. He probably won’t. I’m just predicting one defensive stat will look upon his work favorably after 162 games.

Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge will combine to hit more home runs at GMS Field than any one Ray

The Yankees played their final Grapefruit League game of the year at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Sunday, but they’ll be back in three weeks for a four-game series with the Rays. The Rays will play home games at GMS Field this season after Hurricane Milton badly damaged Tropicana Field in October. Where the Rays will play in 2026 and beyond, I do not know, but they’ll call GMS Field home in 2025.

The Rays finished 29th in runs and 28th in home runs last year. GMS Field should help them score more runs this year. It has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, meaning a short right field porch, plus they’ll be outside in the Florida heat rather than in the climate controlled Trop. The Lowes, Brandon and Josh, figure to benefit most as Tampa’s top two lefty bats. Brandon in particular has a high pull rate.

This bold prediction says that, despite Tampa’s massive advantage in games played, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge will combine to hit more home runs at GMS Field this year than whoever leads the Rays in home homers. Here’s who led the Rays in homers at the Trop last season:

1. Jose Siri: 10 (traded in the offseason)
2. Randy Arozarena: 9 (traded at the deadline)
3. Isaac Paredes: 9 (traded at the deadline)
4. Yandy Díaz: 8
5. Brandon Lowe: 8

Tampa’s only real offensive addition over the winter was Danny Jansen, who always seems to kill the Yankees. The Lowes should benefit from the move into GMS Field, though both are known to frequent the injured list, plus Brandon’s the highest paid Ray, making him a trade candidate. Junior Caminero has huge power and could lead the Rays in home homers even as a righty hitter.

The Yankees have a four-game (April 17-20) and a two-game (Aug. 19-20) series at GMS Field this year, so that’s only 12 man games between Bellinger and Judge. To even the playing field a bit, I’m going to say this bold prediction covers the 2025 calendar year, and includes Spring Training and the postseason*. This bold prediction is already in progress then. Here’s the updated leaderboard:

1. Bellinger + Judge: 3 HR at GMS Field (two by Bellinger, one by Judge)
2. Junior Caminero: 1 HR at GMS Field
3. All other Rays: 0 HR at GMS Field

We have an early 3-1 lead but with only six more team games to pad our total. The Rays still have another 81 games at GMS Field coming. The best case scenario is Bellinger and Judge hit what, seven homers combined in those six regular season games at GMS Field? Hell, Judge might hit seven homers in those six games by himself if he’s on a heater. Whatever the number, Bellinger and Judge will hit more homers together at GMS Field this year than any one Rays player. You heard it here first.

* I don’t think we’ll have to worry about the postseason. Not because the Rays won’t qualify, but because MLB and the MLBPA would likely agree to move any Rays postseason home games out of GMS Field and into a real MLB ballpark (Miami?). More attendance equals more money for everyone.

Two Yankees will steal 30 bases, and another will steal 20 bases

It’s been a while since the Yankees had this much speed on the roster. Probably not since Jacoby Ellsbury was last healthy (2017) and paired with Brett Gardner. Jazz Chisholm Jr. stole 40 bases between the Marlins and Yankees last year. Anthony Volpe stole 24 and 28 bases in his two MLB seasons. Jasson Domínguez stole 77 bases in the minors from 2022-24. Cody Bellinger stole 20 bases in 2023 too.

The Yankees seem likely to bat Chisholm, Domínguez, and Volpe close together in the bottom half of the lineup, and when you bunch fast guys together, they do things like double steal. The Yankees have three guys who can really run, maybe four if Oswald Peraza hits enough to play regularly, plus another who can be a threat on the bases in Bellinger. The baserunning should be very improved this season.

Given that, this bold prediction says the Yankees will have three players steal at least 20 bases, and two of them will clear 30 steals. The Yankees last had two 30-steal guys in 2002, when Alfonso Soriano (41) and Derek Jeter (32) got there. Their last season with two 30-steal guys and one other 20-steal guy was 2001, when they had two of each:

• Alfonso Soriano: 43 SB

• Chuck Knoblauch: 38 SB

• Derek Jeter: 27 SB

• Paul O’Neill: 22 SB

O’Neill stealing a career high 22 bases at age 38 always amuses me. Anyway, I’m not going to bother predicting who will steal 30 bases and who will steal 20 bases. I’m just going to say two Yankees get to 30 steals and another gets to 20 steals. It’s been a long time since the Yankees were built this well to run. I expect them to take advantage. You can’t not use all that speed, you know?

Aaron Judge will start a 9-3 putout

Three Aaron Judge bold predictions? Sure, why not. He’s earned them. In addition to all the other stuff, Judge will start a 9-3 putout this year. Someone will smoke a would-be single to right field, Judge will scoop it up, and throw him out at first base. As best I can tell, the last 9-3 putout was Jesús Sánchez throwing out Josiah Gray on Sept. 22nd, 2021 (video). José Bautista did it on back-to-back nights in 2014!

I can not find the last time a Yankee started a 9-3 putout. It definitely wasn’t recent. I can tell you that much. Zachary Levine found 27 9-3 putouts league-wide from 1990-2013, and none were Yankees. If a Yankee had done it since 2013, I feel like I would remember it. With a fairly high degree of confidence, I can tell you a Yankee has not started a 9-3 putout since at least 1990. It’s been over three decades.

Judge is the perfect guy to do it. He’s got the cannon arm, first and foremost, and also right field in Yankee Stadium is tiny. It allows the right fielder to play a bit more shallow than he would in other parks, and thus get to a ball hit in front of him quicker. Given that, it’s actually kinda amazing we haven’t seen a 9-3 putout at the current version of Yankee Stadium yet. The ballpark conditions are ripe for it.

Watch one of those 9-3 putout highlight videos on YouTube and you’ll notice all the batters are righties, and that makes sense. Righties have that much further to travel to first base, giving the defense that much more time to complete the play. I’m going to say Yandy Díaz will be on the wrong end of Judge’s 9-3 putout. I say that for four reasons:

• Díaz is a right-handed hitter.

• He’s not fast (25.4 ft/s sprint speed in 2024), which helps.

• Díaz wears out the opposite field (16th highest Oppo% in 2024).

• Díaz hits the crap out of the ball (92nd percentile average exit velocity).

Yandy is a slow right-handed hitter who frequently hits the ball very hard to right field, giving Judge more time to complete the 9-3 putout. The fact he’s in the division helps too. More games with the Rays means better odds Díaz is the hitter who makes it happen. This bold prediction says Judge to start a 9-3 putout. If it’s Yandy, it’s Yandy. If it’s not, it’s not. Judge will do it to someone this year though. It has been foretold.

Max Fried will join the 25/60 club

That being the 25 K% and 60 GB% club. Reliable batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, since then, there have been 1,921 individual pitcher seasons of at least 150 innings. Exactly one of those 1,921 pitcher seasons produced a 25 K% and 60 GB%. You could have given me 500 guesses and I don’t think I would’ve gotten it. And guesses? I’ll wait.

…

…

…

It was Tyson Ross with the 2015 Padres (25.8 K% and 61.5 GB%). Framber Valdez never did it. Brandon Webb never did it. Tim Hudson never did it. None of those ground ball monster starting pitchers ever did it. Ross is the only pitcher to go 25/60 in 150 innings in the batted ball data era. That’s a pretty darn good season. For his efforts, Ross received zero Cy Young votes (3.26 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 196 IP!).

For my latest bold prediction, I say Fried will join Ross this year, and become the second member of the 25/60 club. He’s really not far off. Fried had a 23.2 K% last year and it was 25.7% in 2023, albeit in only 77.2 innings around a forearm injury. Last year he finished with a career best 58.8 GB%. I need Fried to add 1.8 percentage points of K% and 1.2 percentage points of GB% to last year’s rates. It’s not that much.

This bold prediction is me betting on whatever Matt Blake and the Yankees have in mind to “tighten the screws” on Fried’s already impressive arsenal taking him to a new level. We’ve already seen indications they’ve tweaked his changeup, specifically deadening it a bit to get more velocity separation off the fastball and more horizontal movement. Something like that can help with whiffs and grounders.

Again, Fried is already on the cusp of the 25/60 club. I’m not asking a non-ground baller like, say, Carlos Rodón to suddenly figure out how to get grounders. I’m boldly predicting Blake & Co. will help a very good pitcher become a tiny bit better, and join Ross in that very exclusive 25/60 club. And if this happens, I would have to think Fried will be right in the Cy Young mix. (Tyson Ross, eh? Who knew.)

The Yankees will set the single-season record for strikeouts on changeups and splitters

This will be the Year of the Offspeed Pitch for the Yankees. They had success helping Luis Gil and Luke Weaver level up their changeups last season, and also Carlos Rodón. Rodón’s changeup really flew under the radar. That’s my bad for not writing about it. Set the minimum to 400 changeups thrown, and here’s the 2024 changeup whiff rate leaderboard:

1. Carlos Rodón: 49.5%
2. Cole Ragans: 47.8%
3. Tarik Skubal: 46.2%
4. Reese Olson: 42.9%
5. Nick Martinez: 41.6%
(MLB average: 30.8%)

Rodón threw 400 changeups on the nose last season, more than he threw from 2021-23 combined (380), and the majority of them came after June 1st. The Yankees leaned into the offspeed pitch kick when they added Mark Leiter Jr. and his splitter at the trade deadline, and they leaned into it even further over the winter, when they brought in Devin Williams and his Airbender and Fernando Cruz and his splitter.

We also saw Gerrit Cole and Will Warren (and Max Fried) tweak and/or emphasize their changeup this spring. The Yankees are all about offspeed pitches – changeups and splitters – right now, which leads me to my next bold prediction. This year’s Yankees will set a new single-season record for strikeouts on changeups and splitters. Here is the leaderboard during the pitch-tracking era (since 2008):

1. 2013 Rays: 410
2. 2012 Rays: 374
3. 2021 Angels: 365
4. 2023 Angels: 349
5. 2023 Blue Jays: 348

The Yankees’ record is 267 strikeouts on changeups and splitters in 2021, the 32nd highest total of the pitch-tracking era. That year they had changeup guys Domingo Germán and Jordan Montgomery in the rotation, and Wandy Peralta in the bullpen. The 2024 Yankees got 227 strikeouts on changeups. That is 85th most of the pitch-tracking era, one strikeout behind the 2023 Yankees.

That 2013 Rays total will fall this year and the 2025 Yankees will strike out more batters on changeups and splitters than any team in the pitch-tracking era. Just look at the makeup of the pitching staff. Fried and now Rodón are changeup guys. Warren’s working his changeup into his arsenal. Eventually Gil will be back. Cruz, Leiter, Weaver, and Williams are in the bullpen. Hopefully at some point Jonathan Loáisiga too.

Look at the depth arms too. Brandon Leibrandt and Allan Winans are big time changeup guys. So are Michael Arias and Brent Headrick. I’m not sure we’ll see Arias in the big leagues this year, but he is on the 40-man roster, giving him a possible leg up on a promotion when a fresh arm is needed. The others will for sure see time in the Bronx this year. It is inevitable. And, when they arrive, they’ll add strikeouts on changeups to our total.

The 2023 Rays hold the pitch-tracking era record with 5,150 changeups/splitters thrown, and their 21.7% changeup/splitter rate is the highest in a non-pandemic season. I think the Yankees have a chance to beat those numbers. This bold prediction is about strikeouts though. This year, the Yankees will strike out more batters on changeups and splitters than any team since pitch-tracking began in 2008.

Pitchers not currently on the 40-man roster will make 54 starts

This one may feel like a gimme given Gerrit Cole’s and Luis Gil’s (and Clarke Schmidt’s) injuries, but the Yankees made the inevitable Carlos Carrasco move official Saturday, and added him to the 40-man roster to prevent him from using his opt out clause. He does not count toward this bold prediction because, as of publication (6am ET on March 24th), he’s on the 40-man roster. No cheating here.

The injuries and the lack of 40-man roster rotation depth means the Yankees will cycle through a whole lot of pitchers this year. Carrasco is just the start. We’ll see Brandon Leibrandt and/or Allan Winans at some point, and neither is on the 40-man roster. The Yankees really seem to like Cam Schlittler. Maybe he becomes an option at some point. It won’t be Chase Hampton though. He had Tommy John surgery.

And then there’s the trade deadline. Cole’s season-ending injury makes it more likely the Yankees are in the market for a starter at the deadline, even if Gil and Schmidt make healthy returns. We can (and will) dream about Sandy Alcantara, but maybe it’s just a Luke Weaver circa Sept. 2023 move. A waiver claim to give the team innings down the stretch. Not every in-season addition needs to be a blockbuster.

I went with 54 starts here because that is one-third of the 162-game season. I’m boldly predicting one out of every three starts this year will be made by someone not on the 40-man roster right now and hoo boy, that’s a lot. Even if I’d cheated and counted Carrasco here, and Carrasco makes 32 starts, I’d still have to find 22 other starts by non-40-man guys. Without Carrasco, this will be a very tall order.

Losing Cole is a significant blow, no doubt, but I am way more confident in the Yankees addressing their pitching issues than any offensive issues that pop up. It won’t always be a sexy name. Sometimes it’s just a Cody Poteet type who parachutes in when you need innings. The Yankees are pretty good at working through any pitching crises. I’m betting they’ll have to do it frequently this summer. 

Spencer Jones will make his MLB debut and lead the Yankees in home runs from that point on

It’s been a while since we have a really good out of nowhere September around these parts. Shane Spencer in 1998 is the gold standard here. Since then, the closest thing to Spencer’s 1998 is probably Luke Voit’s 2018? Voit came over in an easy to overlook trade at the 2018 deadline, then came up in August and started mashing. By the time September arrived, Voit was a lineup staple. The surprise had worn off.

We’re overdue for a great September surprise and Jones will give it to us this year, I boldly predict. The Yankees will summon their top power-hitting prospect late in the year and, from that day on, he’ll lead the team in home runs. Maybe he plays 30 games and hits eight homers. Maybe he plays only five games and hits two homers. Whenever it is, Jones will lead the Yankees in dingers after being called up.

Power is not really in question here. Jones can disappear balls like few others. The two questions are a) will Jones perform well enough in the minors to deserve a call up, and b) will the Yankees call him up even if he deserves it? Teams only get two extra roster spots in September now. One position player and one pitcher. That’s it. The Yankees must determine Jones is worth that one extra position player spot.

Jones, my No. 2 prospect, had a so-so Spring Training, slashing .244/.333/.517 with two homers in 33 plate appearances. Those 33 plate appearances came with 15 strikeouts though, and in games with Statcast, he missed 36 times on 69 swings. That 52.2% whiff rate is ghastly. The MLB average was 25.3% last year, for reference. Getting the bat on the ball remains the No. 1 issue here.

To get the call up in September, Jones will have to get his strikeouts under control and perform well in Triple-A, and he’s changed his setup at the plate in hopes of doing that. The Yankees love the kid, and they have to put him on the 40-man roster after the season for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes anyway. If he has a good season in Triple-A, I could see the Yankees bringing Jones up in September. Sure.

Once you get into the lineup, you can force them to keep you in the lineup by hitting. Put some balls over the fence, something Jones can do even while swinging and missing a ton, and they’ll keep running you out there. Spencer gives way to Spencer. Shane bashed in September 1998 and I boldly predict Jones will do it in September 2025. Unlikely? Yes, but that’s why this is a bold prediction and not a regular prediction.

 * * *

I thought about going back to the trade deadline and/or a postseason finish prediction well, but eh, those are starting to bore me. I also had an “Anthony Volpe will play a game in Triple-A” thought cross my mind, though I think there’s close to zero chance the Yankees demote him for performance reasons, and predicting an injury (i.e. Triple-A rehab game) is bad juju. It’s one thing to say this guy has an injury history. It’s another to predict an injury. I won’t go there.

Five of my 10 bold predictions are based on offense and that’s enough that I didn’t want to force a Ben Rice prediction in there. I hope he mashes though. He crushed the ball in Spring Training. Paul Goldschmidt hitting a home run in his first at-bat of the season after the Yankees did not get a single home run from a first baseman after July 31st last year (including the postseason!) was another idea.

I think there's a chance, albeit a very small one, either Ben Hess or Bryce Cunningham, last year’s top two draft picks, makes his MLB debut late this season. That bold prediction fell to the cutting room floor though. Spring Training is extension season, but a Jazz Chisholm Jr. extension prediction would have been a for-sure loser. It's too late in the spring for that. Like I said, I do try to get some of these right. 

Anyway, those are my bold predictions for the 2025 Yankees. We’ll circle back at the end of the season and see how I fared. If I hit on five, I'll be thrilled. If I hit on three, I'll be happy. If I hit on zero, I’ll be mad at myself. The regular season and the bold prediction tracking begins Thursday.