March 18th, 2025: Rodón, Schmidt, Weaver, Spring Breakout

The 2025 regular season begins today. The Cubs and Dodgers are playing two games in Tokyo this week (6am ET on Tuesday and Wednesday), then everyone else will start their regular seasons next week. The Cubs and Dodgers both played a pair of exhibition games against the Hanshin Tigers and Yomiuri Giants over the weekend and there were rumblings Masahiro Tanaka, who left the Rakuten Golden Eagles (his longtime team) and signed with Yomiuri (Hideki Matsui’s former team) over the winter, would start one of those two games, but that didn’t happen. Too bad. Now 36, Tanaka made only six starts around an injury last year. He is three wins short of 200 and 402 strikeouts short of 3,000 for his career between MLB and NPB. Yu Darvish and Hideo Nomo are the only members of the combined 200 wins/3,000 strikeouts club. (Hiroki Kuroda finished with 203 wins and 2,457 strikeouts.) Anyway, early morning baseball Tuesday and Wednesday, if you’ll be awake. Here now is today’s post. Sorry it’s shorter than usual. This was my last weekend to take it easy before things really ramp up and the season begins, so I took advantage.

1. Rodón on Opening Day. Once the Yankees pushed Marcus Stroman back a day last week, it became clear Carlos Rodón would get the Opening Day start, and the Yankees made it official Friday. Rodón will start Game 1 and Max Fried will start Game 2. Nothing has been set beyond those two. This will be Rodón’s second career Opening Day start. He started the season opener for the 2019 White Sox (box score).

“Just an honor. I’m excited. I just want to go out there and win the game. Honestly, it’s just the first game of the season and another baseball game,” Rodón told Bryan Hoch. “… Listen, it’s the Bronx Zoo. I love Yankee Stadium. Unfortunately, the last game we played there was Game 5 of the World Series, which was also electric. The outcome was not, but it’s always a great atmosphere.”

The timing of Gerrit Cole’s injury made it difficult to rearrange the rotation so that Fried would get the Opening Day start, so Rodón it is. And that’s fine. The Yankees need Fried for the long haul and tinkering with his spring schedule to give him what amounts to a ceremonial Opening Day start isn’t worth any risk that comes with disrupting his throwing. It was much easier to line Rodón up than Fried, so Rodón it is.

“We would have had to remove a spring start to make it line up, and I certainly didn’t want to do that,” Aaron Boone told Hoch about not going with Fried on Opening Day. “Carlos should be built for it, and I’m excited to give him the ball.”

Cole started Opening Day from 2020-23 and Nestor Cortes filled in for Cole last year, so Rodón will be the Yankees’ third different Opening Day starter in three years. I thought maybe it had been a while since the Yankees last had three different Opening Day starts in three years, but nope. Wasn’t long ago at all. Luis Severino in 2018, Masahiro Tanaka in 2019, and Cole in 2020 was the last time it happened.

Rodón hasn’t pitched in a Grapefruit League game since Feb 27th. He’s been throwing live BP in Tampa rather than going on road trips. The Yankees listed him as this past Saturday’s starter, then scratched him and had him throw live BP (here’s video if you don’t believe me). Rodón lines up to pitch this Friday. It’s another road game. Would he really instead throw live BP again? I dunno. Maybe. I kinda want to see him in a game though.

Anyway, the Yankees haven’t made anything official beyond Rodón in Game 1 and Fried in Game 2, in part because Clarke Schmidt is hurt again (more on that in a bit). We can count the days though. Marcus Stroman is lined up for Game 3, with Carlos Carrasco and Will Warren behind him in either order. Here’s what we know about the rotation going into the regular season.

• Thurs., March 27th vs. Brewers: Carlos Rodón vs. Freddy Peralta

• Fri., March 28th: off-day

• Sat., March 29th vs. Brewers: Max Fried vs. Nestor Cortes

• Sun., March 30th vs. Brewers: likely Marcus Stroman vs. TBA 

• Mon., March 31: off-day

• Tues. April 1st vs. Diamondbacks: likely Carlos Carrasco or Will Warren vs. TBA

• Weds., April 2nd vs. Diamondbacks: Rodón on extra rest or Carrasco or Warren vs. TBA

Tobias Myers was lined up to start Game 3 for Milwaukee, but he pulled an oblique over the weekend, so it won’t be him. Aaron Civale best lines up to start Game 3 because Brandon Woodruff is being brought along slowly following shoulder surgery, and Jose Quintana signed late and isn’t built up. If it’s not Civale, there’s a chance that’s a bullpen game, or an opener/bulk reliever situation. An opener three games into the season? Lame.

Rodón vs. Peralta is a good chaos matchup. They could both strike out 10, or they combine to get 14 outs, and neither would surprise me. They are two high variance pitchers. Opening Day is very fun with a lot of pomp and circumstance, and it is easy to think it carries increased importance, but it is ultimately just one game. Game 1 of 162. Try not to make too much of it. 

2. Grapefruit League observations. The poverty Rays did not broadcast Sunday’s game and we missed home runs from Oswaldo Cabrera, Jasson Domínguez, and Ben Rice. Here’s the janky video. All three to the opposite field! How about that? Rice added another opposite field blast Monday. Last Friday I noted he was having a statistically poor spring even though he’s been crushing the ball. Since that post, Rice is 7-for-12 with three homers. See? I can still use the Axisa curse for good. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Schmidt’s setback

Clarke Schmidt did not bounce back well from his Grapefruit League debut last week and was scratched from Monday’s start. The soreness is near his shoulder this time, not in his back, so I guess technically this isn’t a setback. It’s a new injury. Fantastic. Schmidt threw a 25-ish pitch bullpen Monday and now we’ll see how he bounces back over the next few days. Either way, it’s another injury, and that's always bad news.

“With some of the attrition we’ve had, it’s not something we want to push. He’s just not bouncing back as well as he wanted to,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “… I think we’re just being cautious with it, but he’s not making his start (Monday), so there’s at least that concern. Hopefully, he recovers, has no issues with the ‘pen, and then, we’ll insert him back in a couple of days.”

Opening Day is one week and two days away. Even with the plan to start Schmidt in the sixth game of the regular season, how's he supposed to be ready in time? Just put him on the injured list and through a proper build up/rehab assignment. Build him up right and do what’s best for the 162-game season, not what gets him back quickest so he can throw 60 pitches against the Pirates in two weeks.

With Schmidt’s latest injury, this is now the rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (will miss 2025 with Tommy John surgery)
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil (out until late May/June with lat strain)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (sidelined by back/shoulder soreness)
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP Will Warren
8. RHP Carlos Carrasco
9. RHP JT Brubaker (out with broken ribs)
10. RHP Allan Winans, I guess

Deep postseason run + short offseason = Spring Training injuries. Cole and Schmidt missed extended chunks of last season, yes, but it’s not like they sat around. Rehab is physically demanding too. One thing I didn’t appreciate about the late 1990s/early 2000s dynasty until I got older was the durability. Those guys played an extra month every single year and never got hurt. It was remarkable, really.

Anyway, adding Schmidt to the walking wounded gives us this updated Opening Day roster projection (asterisk means the player is out of minor league options):

Maybe it’s Brent Headrick instead of Winans, but a long reliever feels like a necessity with that rotation. Maybe even two long relievers (though you can always shuttle guys up/down). The Yankees will need someone to chew up innings whenever Carrasco or Warren (or Stroman) does a four-and-dive. 

“We’re not there yet,” Boone told Hoch about finalizing the Opening Day roster. “There’s still important days here in camp that we’ll continue to evaluate and keep assessing where we are, and ultimately what we think is the best decision for the team. I feel like a lot of guys have to this point forced us into making hopefully some decisions … We get a lot of voices in the room and hear what people are thinking. Because I think there are real debates to be had for how the shape of the roster goes.”

There is no sense in downplaying the injuries. You’re in a bad spot when you can’t afford Fried (elbow/forearm trouble the last two years) or Rodón (long injury history) missing a start. We can dream about a Sandy Alcantara or Dylan Cease or Erick Fedde trade, but history says the Yankees won’t jump into anything big. They’ll sort through what they have first, and what they have is Carrasco and Warren.

I am way more confident in the Yankees figuring out their pitching on the fly than their offense, but even that has its limits. They’re down three starters in Spring Training, one long-term, plus a bunch of relievers. The Yankees kinda gotta hope the American League is as mediocre as it looks on paper. They’re flat out running out of healthy players. Get well soon, Clarke. (Second time I’ve had to say that this spring.)

Weaver’s velocity

Luke Weaver made his third Grapefruit League appearance Saturday and, once again, his velocity was down 2-3 mph. That has been the case every time out this spring. Boone even remarked about Weaver not having much “power” behind his pitches during his in-game YES interview on March 6th (Weaver’s first spring outing). The absolute last thing the Yankees need now is an ineffective Weaver.

Missing velocity always has to be on the radar, though right now I’d say my concern is about a five on a scale of 1-10 and not a seven or eight. I say that because Weaver’s velocity was in this same exact range last spring. It wasn’t until the middle of the summer that he began living 95-96 mph, and touching even higher. Here is Weaver’s fastball velocity by game since the start of last spring:

The Yankees stretched Weaver out to 3.1 innings and 50 pitches last spring, so perhaps last year’s spring velocity was down because he was working longer outings. And it could be that his velocity is down this spring because of last year’s workload/short offseason. Weaver did not come close to his career high in innings last season, but he threw a lot of intense high leverage innings. It adds up.

Like I said, whenever a guy is missing 2-3 mph, you notice. I think the fact that Weaver’s velocity was in this same range last March makes this less worrisome. Less worrisome from an “oh great, now he’s hurt too” perspective, though maybe not in a “can he be as effective at this velocity?” way. Like everyone else, Weaver’s a different animal at 95-96 than 92-93. A 92-93 mph fastball is good hittin’.

The formula coming into the year was great starting pitching, enough offense around Aaron Judge, and Weaver and Devin Williams making it a seven-inning game. The rotation has been greatly compromised. The Yankees can not afford an ineffective Weaver too. Hopefully his velocity ticks up soon, once the regular season adrenaline begins flowing. If it doesn’t, the Yankees might have a problem.

Spring Breakout

The Yankees got walked off by the Orioles in Spring Breakout on Saturday (box score) and hey, they played a full nine innings this year. It was a seven-inning game last year. Spring Breakout was played in Sarasota and the O’s Spring Training park is not a Statcast park. We didn’t get any pitch velocities, exit velocities, spin rates, no ABS challenges, nothing. We don’t even have final pitch counts unless you counted yourself during the game. It was refreshing in a way. No numbers, just baseball. 

For the Yankees, the highlight of Spring Breakout was Carlos Lagrange, my No. 17 prospect, retiring 12 of 14 batters with a fastball that hit 101 mph on the stadium gun (video). He didn’t walk anyone, though I wouldn’t say his location was crisp either. It was clear control is a challenge for him. Lagrange can’t be a comfortable at-bat with that velocity, that lack of control, and that size (listed at 6-foot-7).

“We have a lot of good pitchers in our organization, so when I got the news, it felt incredible,” Lagrange told Hoch about getting the Spring Breakout start. ”… This was a really big opportunity for me. It meant a lot. It was an opportunity to prove to myself and to everybody else that I’m a good pitcher and that I can throw strikes.”

Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham, last year’s first and second round picks, each had a quick 1-2-3 inning on seven pitches before wobbling in their second inning of work (Cunningham gave up the walk-off single). Between his body type and his delivery, you can see why Hess gets Lance Lynn comps even though their arsenals aren’t all that similar.

Lynn’s stint with the Yankees wasn’t great, but he is a 13-year big leaguer with +30 WAR. Sign me up for Hess having that kinda career. Anyway, Hess and Cunningham technically made their pro debuts in Spring Breakout. The Yankees send all their drafted pitchers to Tampa for pitch design work after signing. Spring Breakout was the first time Hess and Cunningham appeared in an actual game as a pro.

The Yankees didn’t do anything exciting offensively in Spring Breakout. They scored their runs on an RBI single (Jesús Rodríguez), a bases loaded walk (TJ Rumfield), and an RBI ground out (Rodríguez). Yawn. The top single-play highlight was Rodríguez making a terrific sliding stop at third (video). He’s a better third baseman than catcher, defensively, though he’s split his time almost evenly this spring.

(Edgleen Perez threw out a runner trying to steal second with a perfect on-the-bag throw. Alas, the highlight does not exist anywhere. How do O’s fans get by with such limited Spring Training data/video?)

Here is MLB’s Spring Breakout recap video. As you can see, the wind was hectic. Outfielders on both teams ran around like they were chasing chickens instead of fly balls. Anyway, I don’t have anything else to add, really. Lagrange looked good, Rodríguez was the Yankees’ best player on both sides of the ball, and Hess and Cunningham made their pro debuts. Fun game, lousy outcome. So it goes.

Miscellany

Aaron Judge is 2-for-20 with 11 strikeouts this spring and his timing is not right. His hips are flying open and he's really pulling off the ball (like this). It’ll be fine, I trust Judge to figure it out, though the Yankees can’t really afford him repeating last April. They don’t have Juan Soto to pick up the slack. I do think it’s interesting Judge said he’s “shooting for 40-50” at-bats this spring, and he's at 24 plate appearances with only a week of exhibition games left. Judge has been taking live BP just about every single day, it’s not like he’s been sitting around, but there is no substitute for game action. Kinda weird he said he wants 40-50 at-bats but might only get 35-40. Hmmm … Anthony Volpe is still swinging hard, and he’s also 5-for-36 (.139) with 13 strikeouts this spring. He had great springs in 2023 (.309/.415/.618) and 2024 (.314/.364/.471), and stinky regular seasons. Perhaps the opposite will be true this year, and a bad spring will lead to a great season? I sure hope so … An update on the backup catcher competition. Here are the workloads:

• JC Escarra: 40 PA and 46.2 innings at catcher

• Ben Rice: 48 PA and 35 innings at catcher

• Alex Jackson: 18 PA and 31 innings at catcher

Escarra has a huge lead in innings and Jackson lags big time in plate appearances. He recently went five days without appearing in a game, so he might’ve been beat up. Methinks Escarra is the guy. And there is of course room for Rice on the Opening Day roster as well … Another solid outing for Carlos Carrasco on Friday: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K (video). He’s had a good spring overall. Can he be a “three runs in five innings every five days” rotation stopgap? I sure hope so. What other choice do the Yankees have if Schmidt misses time? … Cam Schlittler, my No. 21 prospect, made his third spring start (fourth appearance) on Sunday. Excluding 2023 Luis Gil and 2023-24 Will Warren, Schlittler’s the first prospect-eligible Yankee to make three Grapefruit League starts since Deivi García made three before the pandemic shutdown in 2020. To put it another way, he’s the first prospect for sure ticketed for the minors to make three spring starts since Deivi. Schlittler’s gotten so much run this spring that I almost wonder if the Yankees are showcasing him for a trade, not that he’s having a great spring (12.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 9 BB, 11 K, 2 HR). Hmmm … And finally, we have another entry into this spring's “minor leaguers who aren’t power hitters hitting homers” category. Infielder Brenny Escanio slugged a go-ahead homer against the Blue Jays on Monday (video). Escanio hit zero home runs in 76 games last season. Go figure. The Yankees got him from the Brewers for JP Feyereisen back in Sept. 2019.

Injury updates

Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) rejoined the Yankees over the weekend and he’s also dealing with a calf issue. The calf is considered minor though. The elbows will ultimately dictate when he can resume swinging a bat and eventually get back into the lineup. Boone said Stanton is “doing a little bit more” rehab work without specifying what exactly he is doing. Maybe he's taking simulated at-bats as himself in MLB The Show … Paul Goldschmidt exited Monday’s game with a sore back. He said it’s been bugging him the last few days and he isn’t worried about his Opening Day availability. I have no idea how much this matters or what it means, but Goldschmidt’s bat speed this spring is down about 1.5 mph from June through September last year. A 37-year-old with a sore back? Welcome to the club, Goldy … DJ LeMahieu (calf) has resumed hitting. He’s only in the early stages of his build up though. His return is not imminent … Jake Cousins (forearm) is progressing with his throwing program, though he’s still playing catch and has not yet gotten up on a mound. It’ll be a few more weeks for him … Mark Leiter Jr. was held out of Saturday’s game with back spasms. He was scheduled to throw live BP on Sunday, but didn’t do that either. He instead threw a 30-ish pitch bullpen. He’s scheduled to pitch in Wednesday’s game. Boone (and Leiter) say they’re just being cautious, but you know Boone. He downplays everything. I will believe Leiter is okay when I see him in a game … Ian Hamilton (infection) threw live BP last Thursday and was scheduled to throw another one before making his spring debut, so he could pop up in a game any day now. Hamilton told Bridget Reilly he never stopped throwing, so he’s not as far behind as he would’ve been had he completely shut it down. The Yankees are running out of MLB caliber arms. They really need Hamilton (and Leiter) to be okay for Opening Day.

Up next

Four games in three days as the Yankees wrap up this 12 games in nine days (with an off-day!) stretch. Here’s the full spring broadcast schedule and here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday vs. Red Sox: Max Fried (1pm ET on YES, Gotham)

• Wednesday at Phillies: TBA (1pm ET on NBCS Philly+, MLBN) (split squad)

• Wednesday vs. Braves: Marcus Stroman (6:30pm ET on YES, Gray Media, Gotham) (split squad)

• Thursday at Orioles: TBA (6:30pm ET on MASN, Gotham)

Carrasco and Warren line up to start Thursday and Friday, respectively. But also, Rodón must pitch Friday to stay lined up for Opening Day with an extra day of rest. Maybe he’ll throw yet another sim game instead of going on the road for that game? I would like to see him pitch in an actual game at some point before Opening Day, just for my sanity. Warren could pitch in a minor league game that day, or the Yankees could just bump him to Saturday. They have wiggle room with Warren. Not so much with Rodon.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Erik Boland says the Yankees are among “about 20 clubs” to check in with the Padres about Dylan Cease. No surprise there. The Yankees would check in on a guy like Cease even with perfect health this spring. Given the state of their roster and their contention window, I assume San Diego would want an MLB-ready player(s) in a Cease trade, not prospects who are a year or two away. I’m not sure the Yankees can swing that. I’m also not sure Hal Steinbrenner will okay adding a $13.75M pitcher to the payroll. With a 110% luxury tax rate, Cease would be a $28.875M player for the Yankees ($13.75M salary plus $15.125M tax) … And finally, old pal Joey Gallo went 2-for-20 with 11 strikeouts for the White Sox this spring, and got released over the weekend. He then announced he’s converting to pitching. I can’t imagine many players have gone from All-Star to the other side of the ball in less than four years. Anyway, the White Sox released a pitcher, you say? Matt Blake has a chance to do the funniest thing. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)