February 18th, 2025: Stanton, Stroman, Boone, Arenado, Brubaker, Leiter, WBC

The Yankees have their first major injury of 2025. Bench coach Brad Ausmus pulled his hamstring playing basketball over the weekend and apparently it’s a significant strain. He’s got weeks of recovery ahead of him. Did Aaron Boone play in the game? “Absolutely not. I stay in my lane,” he told Gary Phillips. Boone has a bad history with basketball, as I’m sure you know. Here is the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule (first game Friday!) and here is today’s post.

1. Position players reported to Tampa on Sunday and the biggest news to come out of camp is Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) and Trent Grisham (hamstring) are hurt being brought along slowly. Grisham hurt himself during an offseason workout, though he’s already resumed baseball activities (including running), so it doesn’t seem like a big deal. As for Stanton, he has tendinitis in both elbows and it dates back to last year, probably from carrying the Yankees in October. Stanton told Bryan Hoch his pain level is “very high” and said he hasn’t swung a bat in 3-4 weeks. He’s not sure he’ll be ready for Opening Day. If his pain level is still “very high” after weeks of rest, bet the over on however long you think Stanton will be out. We need to start thinking about Plan Bs at DH. The Yankees have little quality position player depth because they can’t develop hitters and because payroll has been reduced. If Stanton misses time, they will rotate players through the DH slot like they always do, which means more at-bats for Grisham and Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu (and Ben Rice?). Players you don’t want to give more than a few at-bats a week, basically. I can’t find it now, but 2-3 weeks ago Joel Sherman reported the Yankees floated minor league deals to Mark Canha and Adam Duvall, which is about the best you’re going to get in free agency at this point in the offseason (or, gulp, Alex Verdugo). J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner are still out there, though a) neither can play the field anymore (Turner can fake it at first, but that’s it), so they’re not great roster fits unless Giancarlo will be out long-term, and b) the Yankees didn’t spend to improve third base, so I'm not optimistic they will spend on a replacement DH. That last little bit also applies to a potential Luis Arraez trade. Not sure what else to say here. Grapefruit League games haven’t begun yet and Opening Day is still five weeks away. Hopefully that’s enough time for Giancarlo’s stupid sexy elbows to feel better. Grisham’s hamstring too. If it’s not, then the Yankees will solve the problem in a way the fan base finds unsatisfying, and underwhelms on the field. It’s what they do.

2. Marcus Stroman reported to Spring Training on Friday after skipping Wednesday’s and Thursday’s workouts, which was his right per the CBA. He said he’s not willing to pitch out of the bullpen – “I’m a starter. I won’t pitch in the bullpen,” he told Bryan Hoch – which is a bit funny, because when the Yankees put him in the bullpen last September, Stroman told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d), “I have no ego nowadays … I’m open to doing whatever they need me to do to help continue to contribute.” My scorching hot take is Stroman is just being pouty because he’s not happy about his situation, and this will be a non-issue before you know it (things have already died down). There are five possible outcomes here:

• The Yankees trade Stroman before Opening Day.

• The Yankees release Stroman before Opening Day.

• A starter gets hurt and Stroman is in the Opening Day rotation.

• Stroman puts his tail between his legs and opens the season in the bullpen.

• Stroman gets hurt this spring and fades into the background.

A trade could happen, as unlikely as it may seem. I would be surprised if the Yankees straight up release Stroman. Things would have to become so toxic for that to happen and I can’t see it getting that far. Stroman is just making his feelings known, but he knows it’s in his best interest to be a good teammate and pitch when he’s asked to pitch. Nestor Cortes wasn’t happy when he was briefly moved to the bullpen last September. The Yankees let him say his piece, and that was it. It was over and done with. They’ve been doing this since the Joe Torre days. If you’re unhappy, it’s okay to say you’re unhappy, but then work with us to make it better and don’t let it fester. I apologize if you came here expecting me to rip Stroman to shreds. Maybe this will continue and become an actual distraction rather than something to talk about in the early days of Spring Training, and he’ll deserve a good ripping. I don’t think it’ll get to that point. Under Aaron Boone, the Yankees have been very good at not letting little things spiral into big things. There’s a bad moment now and then, those are inevitable during the long season, but they’re basically a one or two-day story, and that’s it. Stroman made his feelings known, and now he’ll go get ready for the season. It’s a lot of bark and I’m expecting little bite. Stroman knows the best way he can help himself is pitch well, so he’ll focus on that.

3. It seems the Yankees are prepared to drop their longtime “wait for the contract to expire, then work out a new deal” policy for Aaron Boone. Late last week Brian Cashman said the Yankees hope to get an extension done with Boone before the end of camp – “Hopefully at some point, sooner than later, we’ll be able to officially cement something,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch – and I’m sure that means it’ll happen. Boone’s contract is set to expire after the season. I don’t have the energy to get worked up over this anymore. To me, Boone falls into the “okay but not great” manager bucket. He’s not bad enough to sink your season but he also hasn’t shown he can get the most out of anyone who isn’t a generational talent or 6-foot-7 superhuman, and his teams are so sloppy. It’s been a constant since he was hired and the Yankees are apparently okay with it because a) the players love Boone, b) he's an ace with the media, and c) he doesn’t push back particularly hard against the front office. Giving the manager an extension after winning the pennant is a perfectly normal baseball thing. It happens every offseason. It’s just that the Yankees haven’t extended their manager before his contract expired in a very, very long time. Even Joe Girardi had to play out 2010, the final year on his contract, before signing a new deal after winning the 2009 World Series. Can’t say I’m surprised the Yankees are eager to extend Boone. They love him. This is just another reminder that, no matter how frustrated you are with the inability to beat non-AL Central teams in the postseason or the poor hitter development or the annual unaddressed lineup spot, the Yankees are perfectly happy with the way things are going. The goal is to be good enough to get to the postseason (which is easier to do than ever), and from there you hope things go your way. Everything the Yankees do makes perfect sense when you view it through that prism.

4. Nolan Arenado reported to Cardinals camp Sunday and said he’s sticking to his list of five teams he’s willing to join. “I don’t see myself really changing that list ever,” he told Jeff Jones, citing his unwillingness to move his family somewhere he doesn’t absolutely want to be. Perfectly reasonable and that’s his right as a player with a full no-trade clause. Derrick Goold, ace Cardinals beat reporter, says the Padres, Red Sox, and Yankees are three of the five teams. The Dodgers and Phillies are believed to be the others. The Red Sox just signed Alex Bregman, so they’re out. The Padres are looking to cut payroll, so they're probably out. I don’t think we could ever rule the Dodgers or Phillies out on anything, though they’re both set at third base (Max Muncy and Alec Bohm), and seem to be done adding. It feels like it’s Yankees or St. Louis for Arenado. Here’s what Goold wrote last week:

(The Yankees) want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the ’value’ of Arenado’s performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest.

FanGraphs has Arenado as a +3.1 WAR player last season and values that at $25.1M. The Cardinals owe him $27M in 2025. There is zero chance a) the hang up is the $1.9M difference in 2025 salary vs. 2024 performance, and b) the Yankees are willing to take on Arenado at $25.1M per year. The Yankees value him at something far less than that. How far less? I do not know, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was as low as $10M, which would conveniently raise payroll to last year’s level. Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak told John Denton he has “exhausted” trade possibilities with the five teams Arenado is willing to join, and is prepared to keep him this year. That is the most likely outcome at this point, and not by a little either, but I refuse to rule the Yankees out on Arenado until he gets traded elsewhere or is in the Cardinals’ lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees have all the leverage at this point and it won’t get easier for St. Louis to trade Arenado in the future, when he’s older and further into his decline. Will the Cardinals reach a point where they’re willing to eat more money than they anticipated to move Arenado now to avoid potentially being stuck with him forever, or not? I think the Yankees would do it at their price, whatever it is (maybe their price has changed with Giancarlo Stanton's elbow injuries?). They’re just waiting for the Cardinals to blink. Opening Day is five weeks away. Plenty of time for this game of chicken to play out.

5. Nolan Arenado or no Nolan Arenado, the Yankees must play their best defensive third baseman whenever Max Fried is on the mound. He’s a weak contact/ground ball guy, and because he’s a lefty who faces a lot of righty heavy lineups, Fried gets a ton of ground balls to the left side of the infield. Here are the pitchers with the highest percentage of plate appearances that ended with a ground ball to the left side from 2022-24 (min. 400 IP):

1. Framber Valdez: 18.7%
2. Logan Webb: 18.5%
3. Max Fried: 18.4%
4. Sandy Alcantara: 17.4%
5. Ranger Suárez: 17.1%
(MLB average: 13.5%) 

Normally when I say a pitcher has a 50% ground ball rate, it means 50% of his balls in play are grounders. I used plate appearances here rather than balls in play because Fried is neither a high strikeout nor a high walk pitcher, so he allows a lot of balls in play, and I want to show just how frequently his at-bats end with a ground ball to the left side. It’s almost one out of every five. Good defenders on the left side of the infield are a must behind Fried. The Yankees are in great shape with Anthony Volpe at short. At third, they can’t play DJ LeMahieu and his diminished range behind Fried. They need a young, athletic, live body at the hot corner during Fried starts because not only will the third baseman have to range left and right, he’ll also have to charge in on weak squibbers and potentially make barehand plays. Oswald Peraza is the best defender among the team’s third base candidates and I’m not sure it’s close either, so it should be him at third base behind Fried. The Yankees can always pinch-hit for him later in the game, especially since the bullpen is built around strikeouts and fly balls rather than grounders. The Yankees know they need a good defensive third baseman behind Fried. I don’t expect to see LeMahieu over there unless it’s an emergency. Fried makes his money getting hitters to roll over on ground balls. The infield personnel must be deployed accordingly.

6. Last week Aaron Boone said he doesn’t know who will hit leadoff yet – “I don't know. We'll see. I really don't,” he said last week when asked who will hit leadoff (video) – which is not great, but also not surprising given the state of the roster. You have the best hitter in the world. Maybe get someone who can reliably get on base to hit in front of him? Just a thought. Anyway, the Yankees want Anthony Volpe to be the guy, but it can’t be him on Opening Day. Don’t fall for another big Spring Training, please. Let’s see a few weeks of sustained excellence (or even sustained averageness) in games that count before running him to the top of the lineup again. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is probably the best leadoff candidate on the roster because he’s averaged over four pitches per plate appearances in his career, he’s run league average walk rates the last few years, he can run, and he can give you a quick 1-0 lead with a leadoff homer. I kinda sorta love the idea of hitting Austin Wells leadoff through. Consider:

• Walk rate: 11.4% (MLB average: 8.2%)

• Pitches per PA: 3.95 (MLB average: 3.88)

• Chase rate: 26.4% (MLB average: 28.6%)

Only Aaron Judge and Juan Soto had a higher walk rate among Yankees last year. Wells sees a good amount of pitches and doesn’t chase excessively, his sprint speed is almost exactly average, and Wells can put a ball in the seats. Yeah, he only hit 13 homers last year, but it was four in his first 57 games and nine in his last 58 games. I know hitting a catcher leadoff is unconventional (Jason Kendall is the only catcher to start more than 60 games at leadoff this century), but defensive position should not be a consideration when putting together the batting order. Wells is the best count-worker on the roster behind Judge and he has power, and the lack of speed isn’t a deal breaker because I don’t want to risk outs on the bases via stolen base attempts in front of Judge anyway. Just let the big guy hit with as many runners on base as possible. I think there’s no chance the Yankees put Wells in the leadoff spot, but I’ve come around on the idea. When you don’t have a good and obvious solution, think outside the box. Wells at leadoff is outside the box.

7. I am irrationally excited about JT Brubaker. He hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2022 because of Tommy John surgery and an oblique strain, but he’s healthy now, and is part of the group already facing hitters in live BP (here’s Brubaker vs. Ben Rice). That indicates we’ll see him in one of the first few Grapefruit League games. Now 31, Brubaker had a 4.69 ERA (3.92 FIP) in 144 innings with the 2022 Pirates, though that was before Pittsburgh got their act together on the pitching front. He wasn’t optimized, so to speak. The book on Brubaker before his elbow blew out was command of a 92-96 mph sinker and a slider that graded out at 106 Stuff+ in 2022. Statcast had his velocity in the same range during his Triple-A rehab starts last season, so that’s good, and I have to think the Yankees will tweak his slider and changeup and everything else. My Brubaker optimism boils down to my confidence in Matt Blake & Co. turning a guy who can locate a hard sinker into something useful, even if he settles in as "just" a short reliever. I assume they’ll stretch Brubaker out to start this spring because why not? He can’t go to the minors though, he has enough service time to refuse the demotion, so the bullpen may be his role this season. The Yankees turned Luke Weaver into a great reliever last year after he pitched to a 5.95 ERA (4.77 FIP) from 2020-23. I’m guessing they’ll figure out a way to turn Brubaker into a real contributor. He’s got a chance to surprise folks this year.

8. Sticking with the bullpen, I expect a better version of Mark Leiter Jr. this year. He can’t be worse, right? Actually, yes, he can, but I don’t think he will. Leiter gave up 14 runs in 21.2 innings with the Yankees because he couldn’t keep the ball in the park. Six homers in those 21.2 innings after two homers in 36.1 innings with the Cubs. That was regular ol’ home run rate regression:

• 2024 with Cubs: 0.50 HR/9 and 8.0% HR/FB

• 2024 with Yankees: 2.49 HR/9 and 26.1% HR/FB

• 2024 overall: 1.24 HR/9 and 16.7% HR/FB

• 2022-23 Leiter: 1.16 HR/9 and 15.7% HR/FB

By the end of the season, Leiter’s home run rate was right in line with the prior two years. The Yankees just caught the ugly end of the regression stick. They brought him in to miss bats and he did that (31.7 K% and 17.6% swinging strikes), and Leiter was solid in limited action in postseason after replacing Ian Hamilton on the roster. The 91.5 mph sinker is worrisome, that doesn’t give him much margin of error, but the splitter is an equalizer (56.5% whiffs!), and the Yankees doubled his curveball usage. A curveball that had a 50.7% whiff rate. It would not surprise me to see Leiter throw 75% splitters and curveballs this year (it was 53% last year), and just go full spam mode with non-fastballs. The arbitration hearing was just business. That didn’t put Leiter on the organization’s shit list or anything. They’ll give him a chance to make a difference, and if he continues to struggle with homers, they’ll DFA him. I bet we see a more effective version of Leiter this year. Someone who settles in as the No. 3 high leverage option, which is much more than he was last season.

9. MLB released bat speed data going back to the 2023 All-Star break last week. The Statcast folks say that’s all we’re going to get, they won’t release anything further back than that, but previously we only had 2024 bat speed data. Now we have a few weeks of 2023 data to compare. Boringly, the vast majority of the Yankees held pretty steady from 2023 to 2024. Aaron Judge jumped from 68.1% fast swings (i.e. 75 mph bat speed or higher) in 2023 to 75.2% in 2024, which could be a function of the toe injury. It’s the second half of 2023 only, remember, so after he came back from the injured list. Here’s Paul Goldschmidt, the newest Yankee:

• 2023: 72.1 mph average bat speed and 18.7% fast swings

• 2024: 72.5 mph average bat speed and 24.3% fast swings

• MLB average: 71.5 mph and 23%

Now that’s interesting. Goldschmidt’s average bat speed didn’t change much but his fast swing rate increased about 30%. What does that mean? That means Goldschmidt did not swing harder, he just swung hard more often. Stephen Sutton-Brown dug into 2023-24 bat speed changes and found increases in bat speed correlate to more homers and also more whiffs, which makes sense. Goldschmidt, of course, whiffed more often in 2024 than at any point in his career. Perhaps the increase in whiffs was a product of swinging hard more often, and not age? Can he cut back on the fast swing rate a tad, reduce his whiffs, and be more productive? Or even just stave off further decline? Or does he have to swing this hard this often to stay productive? I dunno. This bat speed stuff is fascinating to me, though it will make your head spin, and at some point it’s paralysis by analysis. You start chasing ghosts and looking for things that aren’t there. Regardless of the bat speed data, the Yankees need Goldschmidt to be an above average hitter this season, especially with Giancarlo Stanton’s elbows barking. A league average line would be an upgrade over last year’s first base production, yes, but a) a league average line equals a below average first baseman, and b) the Yankees need more than that.

10. I admit to being a catcher worrywart. It’s a physically demanding position with a lot of responsibility, and I like overkill levels of depth at catcher. It is not a position where you want to get caught with your pants down. If you run out of first basemen, you can always come up with a solution, but it's not so easy to do that behind the plate. So yeah, I'm freaking out a little that this is the catcher depth chart in terms of Major League innings caught:

1. Austin Wells: 1,031.1
2. Alex Jackson: 818.2
3. Ben Rice: 1
4. Everyone else: 0

Are the Yankees really going into the season with this catcher depth chart? I know they like JC Escarra and Rafael Flores, but come on man, you have to do better than being one bad luck foul tip away from Alex Jackson having an everyday lineup spot. I refuse to believe the Yankees will go into the season with this catcher group. They have a history of acquiring catchers at the end of Spring Training (Chris Stewart in 2012, Jose Trevino in 2022) and maybe that’s the plan this year. Looking through depth charts, maybe the Diamondbacks are willing to move Jose Herrera or René Pinto? The Braves and Curt Casali? James McCann is still unsigned, but there’s a reason for that (89 wRC+ and -5 DRS in 2024). Then again, when the alternative is Alex Jackson, maybe McCann is the way to go. I dunno. Just feels like the Yankees are flying too close to the sun. They’ve proven to be very good at helping catchers level up defensively, but never before have they banked on that ability to this extent.

11. The other day I mentioned the Brewers named Freddy Peralta their Opening Day starter, so we’ll see him in the Bronx on March 27th. That sent me looking at the schedule and hoo boy, I hope the Yankees have their turtlenecks and hand warmers ready to go. The early season slate:

• Six-game homestand (3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Diamondbacks)

• Six-game road trip (3 in Pittsburgh, 3 in Detroit)

• Six-game homestand (3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Royals)

After that, the Yankees will go to Tampa for four games, then they go to Cleveland for a three-game series. That’s 21 of the first 25 games in cold weather climates. It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be rainy, and offense will likely be down. It will be four weeks of weather misery to start the season. So it goes when the schedule makers send you to Pittsburgh and Detroit in April. Nothing else to add here. I mean, the schedule is the schedule. What can you do? I just didn’t realize the Yankees would spend so much time in cold weather cities right out of the gate. At least mix in a trip to the dome in Toronto or something, you know? Hopefully the weather delays and postponements are kept to a minimum. That’s what worries me most. Me being personally inconvenienced by the weather.

12. And finally, next year is a World Baseball Classic year, and the qualifying events begin this weekend. 16 teams secured 2026 WBC berths with their finish in 2023: Australia, Canada, Cuba, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Great Britain, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Panama, Puerto Rico, South Korea, United States, and Venezuela. The other four spots will be decided in the upcoming Taipei (Chinese Taipei, Nicaragua, South Africa, Spain) and Tucson (Brazil, China, Colombia, Germany) qualifiers. No Yankees or Yankees prospects are playing in the qualifiers because, duh, they’re in Spring Training. Those rosters are filled by players who are unsigned or are playing overseas, in independent leagues, etc. MLB’s press release last week got me thinking about next spring’s WBC, and which Yankees could be there. Aaron Judge was noncommittal when asked about it in 2023. I don’t get the sense Gerrit Cole is eager to do it, though maybe that changes since 2026 might be his last chance to represent his country. A few Yankees stand out as 2026 WBC candidates:

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Jazz committed to play for Great Britain in 2023, but the Marlins blocked him because he missed their final 89 games of 2022 with a back injury. 

• Luis Gil: Here’s the 2022-24 WAR leaderboard among Dominican pitchers. Not many guys would have to drop out before Gil finds himself in the mix for a 2026 WBC rotation spot.

• Anthony Volpe: He won’t be USA’s shortstop (Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., etc.), though he’s also eligible to play for Italy. Italy’s 2023 shortstop was Nicky Lopez, so yeah.

• Austin Wells: USA’s catcher depth chart is very deep (Cal Raleigh, Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, etc.), though who knows who will drop out, get hurt, etc. 

• The Oswald(o)s: Venezuela will need utility players and Cabrera and/or Peraza could make it that way. Hernán Pérez was on Venezuela’s 2023 roster for that reason.

• Miscellaneous: Fernando Cruz (Puerto Rico), Jasson Domínguez (Dominican Republic), Scott Effross (Israel), plus others.

Teams can only block players from the WBC under certain injury-related conditions. If Cole or Judge or Volpe or anyone else wants to play and they’re healthy, and finish 2025 healthy, they can play, and the Yankees can’t stop them. The rosters won’t be finalized until next February and a year is an eternity in baseball time, so we'll see how things shake out the next few months. I do enjoy the WBC though. It’s a lot of fun and the next one isn't far away. We’re going to hear rumblings all summer about this guy wanting to play, that guy committing, etc. Good times, the WBC is.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)