February 6th, 2025: Hill, Carrasco, Non-Roster Invitees, Not Top 30 Prospects, Mailbag

On this date in 1998, the Yankees and Twins finally completed the Chuck Knoblauch trade. I remember the weeks of rumors, but I forgot the trade didn’t actually happen until right before Spring Training. The Yankees won three World Series titles in Knoblauch’s four years even though he wasn’t as impactful as expected. He hit .321/.420/.470 (131 wRC+) in his last three years with the Twins. Sure would be nice to plop a hitter like that in the leadoff spot in front of Aaron Judge, no? Anyway, my annual Top 30 Prospects List will run tomorrow, so here is Friday’s post on Thursday. Let’s get to it.

1. Latest roster moves. Spring Training is approaching and the Yankees made a few moves this week to wrap up (?) their offseason shopping. Here’s the latest.

Welcome back, Timmy

I hoped this would be one of those fun “Tim Hill has a locker in the clubhouse” signings on the first day of Spring Training, but alas, they got it done a week before pitchers and catchers report. Hill is back. Joel Sherman says it’s a one-year deal with a club option. Hill gets $2.5M in 2025 and a $350,000 buyout on a $3M club option for 2026, so it's $2.85M guaranteed.

“Tim had his eyes set on the Yankees,” Garrett Parcell, Hill’s agent, told Gary Phillips. “It’s a team he believes in. He wants to win a World Series.”

Hill, 35 next week, went from getting released by the 121-loss White Sox last June to working high leverage innings for the Yankees in October. Set the minimum to 66 innings, and he had the highest ground ball rate (68.2%) and lowest strikeout rate (10.7%) in baseball last season. He also threw 100% fastballs from Aug. 25th through the ALDS. That covers 14 games and 14.1 innings. Interesting guy, Hill is.

The Yankees have replaced Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle with Fernando Cruz and Devin Williams this offseason, so they’ve traded ground balls for strikeouts. Hill gives the Yankees a ground ball monster and also a lefty, which they lacked. There are eight spots in the bullpen. Might as well use one on the lefty, just to have that look available to you. The current bullpen (40-man roster pitchers only):

Closer: RHP Devin Williams
Setup: RHP Fernando Cruz, RHP Luke Weaver
Middle: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Ian Hamilton, LHP Tim Hill, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.
Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Marcus Stroman

Injured: RHP Jonathan Loáisiga 
Depth: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Yerry De Los Santos, RHP Scott Effross

I have nine relievers listed for eight bullpen spots, though that’s nothing a Stroman trade or a spring injury can’t clear up. If necessary, the Yankees can option Cruz, Cousins, and Hamilton to Triple-A. They can all be sent down without requiring waivers. Matt Blake said they’re targeting late April or May for Loáisiga. He’ll be back when he’s back. Loáisiga has an unfortunate knack for missing more time than expected.

The Yankees were said to have interest in a Hill reunion basically since Day 1 of the offseason. As good as he was last year, it is Tim Hill, and there was no need to rush into anything. The Yankees waited out the market and got him at a reasonable price. One year and $2.85M is Danny Coulombe ($3M), Caleb Thielbar ($2.75M), and Hoby Milner ($2.5M) money, and those three guys were all hurt and/or bad last season.

I’m going to sound like a grump, but we have to remember Hill is a soon-to-be 35-year-old pitch-to-contact guy, and there’s a chance things go poorly this year. “Get released by the White Sox” poorly. If it happens, it would suck, and I would hope the Yankees are quick to move on. They have very little invested in Hill and should move on quickly if the performance isn’t there. Hill’s cool. Let’s just maintain perspective on what he is.

At one point it this offseason was reported the Yankees had interest in Andrew Chafin, and hey, why not sign him too? There’s nothing wrong with having two lefties in the bullpen, plus Chafin (sliders and strikeouts) and Hill (sinkers and grounders) are very different pitchers. Multiple lefties would be nice. I won’t hold my breath though. Let’s just be thankful Hal Steinbrenner splurged on one lefty reliever this winter.

Shewmake claimed on waivers

The Yankees have added a depth infielder, albeit not someone who changes the second/third base outlook in a meaningful way. Wednesday afternoon they claimed Braden Shewmake off waivers from the Royals. He’s a former first round pick (No. 21 overall in 2019) who went from the Braves to the White Sox in the Aaron Bummer trade, and the White Sox to the Royals on waivers last month. Now he’s a Yankee.

Shewmake, 27, is a good glove/no bat infielder. He’s a career .239/.299/.395 (74 wRC+) hitter in over 800 plate appearances … in Triple-A. In limited big league action, it’s a .118/.127/.191 (-20 wRC+) line. Shewmake falls into the “fundamentally sound but not impactful” category defensively. He has mostly played shortstop in his career, and he has some second and third base experience. A depth infielder for Scranton. Nothing more.

Yankees also claim White

Owen White, specifically. A righty pitcher from the Reds. White, 25, was a high draft pick (No. 55 overall in 2018) and a consensus top 60-ish prospect as recently as 2023. He’s had a rough go of it at the upper levels though, including allowing 13 runs in seven big league innings with the Rangers the last two years. The Reds picked White up in a cash trade last month, and now the Yankees get him on waivers.

While repeating Triple-A, White threw 99 innings with a 5.64 ERA (5.58 FIP) and underwhelming strikeout (19.5%) and ground ball (43.7%) rates last season. He did move to the bullpen in August though, so a role change is underway. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked White as the No. 24 prospect in Cincinnati’s system last month. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Though his stuff is not what it was in previous years, White still has a chance to pitch in the big leagues. Nothing in his arsenal is plus, but nothing is below-average either. White’s fastball regained a bit of the velocity he’d lost in 2023, averaging 94 mph and peaking at 97. His slider is his best secondary pitch and has the potential to be an above-average offering with further refinement. To that end, he tweaked the grip on the pitch near the end of the year … Scouts are bullish on White’s control and command but believe he needs to bring one of his offspeeds forward to the point that it can miss bats on a consistent basis … If he can maintain his velocity and find an out pitch he might fit as a back-end starter. If not, he could settle in as a swingman or bulk reliever.

You never know when the Yankees will unearth the next good reliever and a 25-year-old who was a top 100 prospect just two years ago is worth a waiver claim, and is a good use of a 40-man roster spot. White has an option remaining too, so the Yankees can easily stash him in Scranton, and shuttle him up/down this season. Given the team’s recent pitching successes, we shouldn’t dismiss White as a nothing move.

Alright, we need to do some 40-man roster housekeeping now. The Yankees came into the week with one open 40-man spot. That went to Shewmake. When they claimed White later in the day Wednesday, they DFAed Allan Winans to open a 40-man spot, which makes sense because what is White if not a four-years-younger version of Winans? Winans could clear waivers and stay with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. That would be nice.

The Hill re-signing is not yet official and the Yankees will need to open a 40-man spot once it’s done. Maybe Loáisiga is a 60-day IL candidate and the Yankees will wait until they can do that next week to finalize Hill’s deal? If not, Shewmake and Roansy Contreras stand out as DFA candidates. It won’t be difficult to open a 40-man spot. It’s just something that will have to be done soon to accommodate Hill.

Yankees sign Carrasco

Carlos Carrasco, one of the friendliest and easiest to root for players in the game, will be in camp with the Yankees. They signed him to a minor league contract earlier this week. Sherman says Carrasco gets a $1.5M base salary in the big leagues with another $2.5M in performance bonuses. The rotation depth chart now looks something like this: 

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP JT Brubaker
8. RHP Carlos Carrasco
9. RHP Will Warren

Nos. 1-5 are Nos. 1-5, Stroman is the clear No. 6, and Nos. 7-9 and Nos. 7-9. You’re welcome to quibble with the exact order, but I wouldn’t waste the brain power. This will all be put in a blender in a few weeks.

Carrasco, 38 next month, was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2014-20, though he’s nearing the end of the line now. He’s coming off a 5.64 ERA (4.93 FIP) in 103.2 innings with the Guardians last season. A hip strain effectively ended his season in early August, though Carrasco did get healthy and complete a rehab assignment. Cleveland DFAed him in September rather than activate him off the injured list.

There are arrows down aplenty. Career low fastball velocity last year (91.6 mph), career worst whiff rates on his slider (28.8%) and changeup (29.2%), lefties and righties both slugged over .485 against him, etc. Carrasco threw 42% four-seamers and sinkers last year. The Yankees might put him on the Masahiro Tanaka plan, and have him throw 25% fastballs while leaning heavily on his slider and changeup. I dunno.

Carrasco overlapped with Matt Blake in Cleveland years ago, which I’m sure contributed to the signing. The Guardians are pretty good with pitchers, and if the best they could get out of Carrasco was a 5.64 ERA last year, then I won't get my hopes up. It’s a minor league contract, so there’s no risk. Seems like the Yankees see Carrasco as Stroman trade/Spring Training injury insurance, and not a whole lot else.

How willing is Carrasco to go to Triple-A? At his service time, his minor league contract automatically includes an opt out at the end of camp. Al Leiter retired in the middle of Spring Training in 2006. More recently, Gio Gonzalez and Tyson Ross walked away in March after failing to win a big league job. This might be a “if I win an MLB job, great, if not, I gave it my best and I’m going home” situation for Carrasco. Either way, if the Yankees need him to provide a not insignificant sum of innings in 2025, then it’s likely something very bad has happened.

Yankees bringing 26 NRIs to camp

The Yankees finally got around to announcing their non-roster invitees Wednesday and sheesh, I had a really rough year with my predictions. Usually I miss on 5-6 guys. This year I had 15 misses between players I thought would be an NRI but aren’t, and players who aren’t NRIs that I thought would be. Here are the 26 NRIs the Yankees are bringing to Major League Spring Training this year:

Reminder: 40-man roster players will be in big league camp automatically. That group includes prospects like Jasson Domínguez, Ben Rice, Jorbit Vivas, and Will Warren, among others.

Arias and Lombard, arguably the two best non-Domínguez prospects in the organization, will be in camp as NRIs and I didn’t expect that. Lombard is still only 19 and Arias turned 20 in September. It’s not often the Yankees bring prospects this young to big league camp. They love Lombard, so his NRI surprises me less than the Arias NRI, but I am still surprised. Jones being an NRI was expected. He was one last year.

Martínez gets the “lower minors catcher who gets an NRI because the Yankees need someone to catch bullpens” spot I had earmarked for Antonio Gomez. Schlittler gets the spot I thought would go to Zach Messinger. Other notables who I thought would get an NRI but did not are lefty Brock Selvidge, righty Alex Mauricio, and pinch-runner specialist Cam Eden. I wonder if Selvidge is still dealing with the biceps issue that ended his season last July? Hmmm. 

Schlittler you’ll learn more about in my Top 30 Prospects post tomorrow. Stevens had a nice run last year before getting hurt in August. At least he’s healthy now. Boyle returned from elbow surgery last summer and is a Ryan Weber-y low slot, low velocity, sinker/slider guy. Hernández and Pestana are inventory arms more than prospects until further notice. Hernández is the more highly regarded of the two.

Leal is a name I had not heard in a long time. I checked to make sure it's the same Erick Leal who had a little prospect shine with the Cubs and got traded for Tony Campana back in the day, and yep, it is. Now 29, Leal pitched in the Mexican League the last four years (4.35 ERA in 122 IP in 2024). Turns out the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal last September. Curious to see what his stuff looks like this spring.

My takeaways with the NRIs are, one, yay prospects. Spring Training is a great time for prospect watching, and because Arias and Lombard (and Jones) are NRIs, they’ll get some Grapefruit League starts. They won’t be limited to late inning duty as minor league camp call-ups. Flores and Reyzelman are notable too. Reyzelman will open eyes with his stuff. Flores will run into a fastball and hit a ball over the concourse at some point.

And two, the Yankees really didn’t bring in any veteran NRI types to compete for the backup catcher job and the second/third base job, huh? No depth lefty relievers either? I assumed the Yankees would bring in someone to at least push the in-house candidates for those jobs in camp. Someone to make Oswald Peraza earn a roster spot rather than have one handed to him (someone better than Shewmake, I mean). So far though, nope. No such signings.

The Yankees can always sign players to minor league contracts and add them to their NRI list later (Yasmani Grandal? Yoán Moncada?). Teams sign players in Spring Training all the time. I just thought the Yankees would do it before camp opened. I’m very surprised they’re going into the spring with this collection of backup catcher and second/third base candidates. Maybe it’ll work out. I hope it does.

2. Not Top 30 Prospects. Pitchers and catchers report next week and that means it's prospect season here at RAB. My annual Top 30 Prospects List will run Friday morning, and today we’re going to dig into my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are not prospects 31-35. They are merely five prospects outside the Top 30 who I think could jump into next year’s list with a strong developmental season in 2025.

Only one of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects made this year’s Top 30. Two of last year’s Prospects to Know made the Top 30, so I guess my radar was off. Anyway, again, these are not prospects 31-35. They are five prospects who are trending up but are not quite Top 30 caliber yet, at least in my eyes. Here are this year’s Not Top 30 Prospects, listed alphabetically.

RHP Alex Almonte

Date of Birth: Sept. 14th, 2006 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2024 out of the Dominican Republic ($275,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: 3.51 ERA (5.11 FIP), 23.9 K%, 11.0 BB%, 47.0 GB% (25.2 IP in DSL)

Listed at 6-foot-4 and 205 lbs., Almonte fits the physically huge pitcher archetype the Yankees seem to love. His fastball sat 92-93 mph with a few 97s last summer, and his low-80s breaking ball varies between a traditional slider and a sweeper within games. He also has a hard changeup in the upper-80s. The control (strikes) is okay, the command (quality strikes) has a ways to go.

Almonte is a standard projectable teenager with a lively fastball and the feel to spin a breaking ball. These days even the best internationally signed pitchers spend two years in the Dominican Summer League, so I expect Almonte to return there this season. The Yankees can help him sharpen his breaking ball. Now it’s just a matter of adding to the fastball, firming up the changeup, and figuring out location.

SS Mani Cedeno

Date of Birth: Aug. 14th, 2008 (age 16)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2025 out of the Dominican Republic ($2.5M bonus)
2024 Stats: N/A (just signed)

Cedeno made the 2025 international signing period cutoff by 18 days and was one of the youngest players in this year’s signing class. His $2.5M bonus was the largest the Yankees gave out this signing period and the seventh largest given out this signing period overall. Cedeno is listed at 5-foot-10 and 180 lbs., and he stands out most for his superb shortstop tools. Good hands, good footwork, strong arm, etc.

At the plate, Cedeno is a right-handed hitter with good bat-to-ball ability and some pop, and obviously the Yankees are hoping he adds strength and more hard-hit ability as he matures. If that happens, he has a chance to really take off in the coming years. An assignment to the Dominican Summer League is in the cards for Cedeno this summer. Given his age, he might head back to the DSL in 2026 too. (It’s Mani, not Manny as previously reported.)

RHP Mack Estrada

Date of Birth: Sept. 12th, 2004 (age 20)
Acquired: 2024 11th round, No. 331 overall ($640,340 bonus)
2024 Stats: Did not pitch after signing

The Yankees selected college seniors and saved some bonus pool space in the eighth, ninth, and tenth rounds in last summer’s draft. They gave those savings, plus a chunk of the 5% overage allowed before the harshest penalties kicked in, to Estrada, the top ranked junior college player in the draft class. Slot for every pick after the tenth round is $150,000, and everything above that counts against the bonus pool. Estrada was a $490,340 hit.

Anyway, like every other pitcher the Yankees drafted last year, Estrada’s a big dude (6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.). He ran his two-seamer up to 96 mph last year and pairs it with a slider and a changeup, both in the mid 80s. I’m told Estrada tunnels his pitches well, and that his pitch data pops. He’s a former football player who pitches with that mentality, which isn’t always good. The Yankees sent Estrada to Tampa for pitch design work after the draft last year. Figure he’s ticketed for the rookie Florida Complex League in 2025.

C/UTIL Jesus Rodriguez

Date of Birth: April 23rd, 2002 (age 22)
Acquired: Signed July 2018 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
2024 Stats: .302/.375/.481 (144 wRC+), 10 HR, 9.9 BB%, 14.7 K% (333 PA at A+, AA)

A surprise addition to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline in November, Rodriguez is a developmental stash, meaning he’s not ready to help the Yankees at the big league level in 2025. The Yankees didn’t want to risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft, though he just got to Double-A late last year, and probably has another 1.5-2 years in the minors ahead of him.

Up until his 23-game Double-A cameo last year, Rodriguez has hit everywhere he’s played, and he backed into versatility because he was often teammates with more highly regarded catching prospects (Agustin Ramirez, Austin Wells, etc.), and they got the lion’s share of the workload behind the plate. Rodriguez has played first, third, and left regularly. At this point he's best defensively at first and third, though you can put him behind the plate or in an outfield corner if needed.

Rodriguez is a certified hacker whose 9.9 BB% last year greatly oversells his patience. He chases A LOT and that will be the thing to watch now that he’s in Double-A. He does get the fat part of the bat on the ball though, and can drive the ball out of the park the other way as a righty hitter. Upper level pitchers may pick Rodriguez and his overly aggressive approach apart. If he tightens up his discipline a tad, he has a chance to be a nifty utility guy for a contending team.

OF Brian Sanchez

Date of Birth: July 4th, 2004 (age 20)
Acquired: Jake Bauers trade with Brewers (Nov. 17th, 2023)
2024 Stats: .306/.394/.514 (143 wRC+), 4 HR, 11.6 BB%, 20.7 K% (198 PA in FCL)

The Yankees were able to trade Bauers to Milwaukee for two prospects a few hours before last offseason’s non-tender deadline. Sanchez has surpassed the whiff-prone Jace Avina and is now the more highly regarded player. He’s a physically imposing hitter who looks bigger and stronger than his listed 6-foot-3 and 170 lbs., and the exit velocities are impressive: 114 mph max and 104 mph 90th percentile in 2024. Sheesh.

Sanchez has a big leg kick and some in-zone contact questions, but he can really sting the baseball from the left side of the plate, and he’s a disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase excessively. Defensively, he’s left fielder long-term because he doesn’t have the range for center or the arm for right. Sanchez is a bat-first player with a good approach and hard-hit ability, but also a stiff swing. He’ll move up to Low-A Tampa this season and has a chance to really open eyes if he can shorten up the leg kick and make more contact.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. We have our first (but almost certainly not last) umpire gambling scandal. Earlier this week MLB suspended Pat Hoberg for one year after it was discovered he shared an account with a friend who bet on baseball, including games Hoberg worked. Also, Hoberg deleted all sorts of evidence (messages, ledgers, etc.), which obstructed MLB’s investigation. The league says it found no evidence Hoberg manipulated the games his friend bet on. Hoberg rated as one of the best ball/strike umpires in the game, including calling a “perfect game” (i.e. no missed calls) in Game 2 of the 2022 World Series. He can apply for reinstatement in a year. Hoberg’s friend bet on baseball, not Hoberg himself, but still, it was a shared account, and pretty dumb of him. He’s a good umpire, but I would be okay with MLB banning Hoberg permanently. Don’t leave any wiggle room and make sure everyone knows the consequences.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Sebastian asks: My question is about your thoughts on whether the front office has actually learnt lessons from the past. Specifically, let's say next season Dominguez hits the 90th percentile of his potential and has an All-Star/Rookie of the Year campaign to establish himself in the Yankee OF. Do you think the Front Office will use that success and Bellinger's 2026 contract as an excuse not go all out for Kyle Tucker in FA, or have they finally learnt from doing the same with prospects like Andujar/Frazier/Volpe who had success/hype in limited or no time, and then getting burned so often not going for the elite FAs in those cases. Does a signing like Fried this year despite the breakouts from Gil and Schmidt indicate they've moved beyond that? I fear that I know the answer is whatever will save Hal money, but still wanted to get your thoughts.

Oh yeah, these decisions are 99% based on money and not roster fit. The Yankees were very willing to pay Juan Soto a lot of money even though it would have meant a less than ideal outfield alignment for at least a few years. They signed DJ LeMahieu (the first time) despite having two of the three reigning Rookie of the Year finalists on the infield (Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres). If the money is right, they’ll do it, and figure out how the pieces fit later. Saying they can’t sign Bryce Harper because they have Clint Frazier (or can’t sign Kyle Tucker because they have Jasson Domínguez) is just a way to ward off any complaints. Generally speaking, fans are more willing to forgive free agent inactivity when it involves making room for a young player than ownership saving money. I’m not sure there is any lesson to learn here. I guess the lesson is sign great players when they become available, because the alternative (homegrown players, cheaper free agents, etc.) is almost always worse. Using young players as an excuse not to spend is just that, an excuse, and not the real reason the Yankees (or any team) does it.

Adam asks: I understand that being a defense-first player, Ha-Seong Kim would’ve been an imperfect fit for what we currently need in the infield, but the contract he received from Tampa, don’t you think the Yankees should’ve been all over him?

I gotta think being able to play shortstop was appealing to Kim, and he would not have accepted a similar contract to play second or third base with the Yankees. His best chance at a big-ish contract next winter involves showing he can still play high level defense at short. The Rays will give him that chance. The Yankees would not have. How much more would the Yankees have had to pay to convince him to pay second/third? Beats me. Wouldn’t surprise me if it was a fairly big number though, and not an extra $1M or something relatively insignificant like that.

Brian asks: With the latest prospect lists we've seen George Lombard Jr generating a lot of buzz in top 100 lists (Kiley McDaniel has him as high as #60 at ESPN). I've also seen rumblings that there is belief he can't stick at SS long term and would move to 2B or 3B. Are we in for a redux of the whole "we have the SS of the future already" where the team won't get an established, good, long term solution, and instead have a stop gap because we have the 3B or 2B of the future already in the minors?  

Good news! Other than Bo Bichette after 2025, no infielder worth a significant contract is scheduled to become a free agent in the next three offseasons. There won’t be one until Gunnar Henderson hits the market after 2028. That should be plenty of time to figure out whether Lombard is the real deal, and worth plugging into the infield and not displacing with a veteran. Lombard is very young (still only 19) and a few years away from the big leagues. Come the 2028-29 offseason, we should have a pretty good idea what his future looks like. Are we looking at a possible All-Star? A solid everyday player? A utility man? Who knows. Right now, Lombard is so far away that it’s not worth considering his long-term future when making moves to reinforce the infield. In a few years, maybe, but that’s an eternity away in baseball time.

Paul asks: It just hit me: they're trying to trade Stro to get under the $301M and reset their tax, aren't they? On the heels of a world series run. They're not adding anything else. 

Getting under the $301M fourth luxury tax threshold doesn’t reset their tax rates. The only benefit would be saving money via lower payroll and less tax. The Yankees would have to get payroll under the $281M third luxury tax threshold to avoid moving their 2026 first round pick back 10 spots, and get all the way under the $241M first threshold to reset their tax rates and avoid the harshest free agent compensation rules. After the Tim Hill signing, Cot’s puts the luxury tax payroll at $304.8M. Realistically, there’s no way the Yankees can get under the $281M threshold, let alone the $241M threshold. Trading Marcus Stroman is about saving money and nothing else. Maybe the Yankees reinvest the savings in the roster, maybe ownership pockets it, but that’s all it is. Saving money. There are no non-financial benefits.

Mike asks: Whatever happened with that Ellsbury suit?

They settled in April 2022 and did not go to a hearing. April 2022? I would have guessed this happened in like 2019. Anyway, the settlement terms were never revealed. The Yankees claimed Jacoby Ellsbury used an outside rehab facility without their permission, and withheld the final $26M remaining on his contract. The $26M was owed in 2020 and the settlement money did count against their luxury tax payroll, so they had to pay some back luxury tax on that. This is over and done with though.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)