January 24th, 2025: Hall of Fame, Sabathia, Coaches, Mailbag

The Yankees made two waiver claims Thursday afternoon and I didn’t have time to write them up, so they’ll have to wait until Tuesday. The first, righty Allan Winans, came over from the Braves and is a depth No. 6-7(-8) starter type. The second, righty Roansy Contreras, is a former Yankees prospect, which I’m guessing you know if you’re reading this. They sent him to the Pirates in the Jameson Taillon trade. The Yankees are Contreras’ fifth team this offseason: Angels, Rangers, Reds, Orioles, and now Yankees, all on waiver claims. He’s out of minor league options and I’m not sure he’ll stick on the 40-man roster long. We’ll see. The Yankees do still have an open 40-man spot. More on Contreras and Winans coming Tuesday. Here now is today’s post.

1. Ichiro, Sabathia, Wagner elected to Hall of Fame. There are three new members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame: Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner. I’m not familiar with Wagner, maybe he’s a gas too, but Ichiro and Sabathia giving Hall of Fame speeches the same year is gonna rule. Two of the coolest, funniest, and larger than life personalities in recent memory. I can’t wait.

“It means a lot to be in the Hall of Fame period,” Sabathia said after the announcement. “But first ballot, I know what that means as a baseball player. It’s very special.”

Here are this year’s voting results. Ichiro fell one vote short of being unanimous and that one voter has not been identified, and probably never will be. I’m not gonna get worked up over Ichiro not being unanimous. It’s really hard to get 400 or so people to agree on anything, and you’re a Hall of Famer at 100% the same way you’re a Hall of Famer at 75.1%. Ichiro got in and that’s the important thing.

Here are the highest voting percentages in Hall of Fame history:

1. Mariano Rivera: 100% (425 of 425)
2. Derek Jeter: 99.7% (396 of 397)
3. Ichiro Suzuki: 99.7% (393 of 394) 
4. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.3% (437 of 440)
5. Tom Seaver: 98.8% (425 of 430) 

(After seeing the outrage about Ichiro not being unanimous, I joked with my CBS editor that I’ll volunteer to be the guy who doesn’t vote for Albert Pujols, then write about it. The page views will feed generations.)

Ichiro spent 2.5 years with the Yankees from 2012-14, though of course he’ll go into the Hall of Fame as a Mariner. Wagner was on the BBWAA’s ballot for the final time and got over the hump this year after missing by five votes last year. Here’s the video of Wagner getting the call. It was a long 10 years on the ballot for him, and seeing players get that happy and that emotional makes me feel good about being a big Hall guy.

Carlos Beltrán fell 19 votes short of induction in his third year on the ballot, so he’s getting in at some point, possibly next year. Alex Rodriguez finished in the 38% range for the fourth straight year. That seems to be his ceiling. Andy Pettitte jumped from 13.5% last year to 27.9% this year, but with only three years of eligibility remaining, he’s going to fall short on the BBWAA ballot. Maybe the Veterans Committee puts him in one day.

As for Sabathia, he is one of my favorite Yankees ever and one of my all-time favorite players period, and I was happier than I expected when the Hall of Fame was made official Tuesday. I kept tabs on the public ballots and knew he was in great shape, though hearing it made official hit different. Here’s CC getting the call with his family. I love that he fanboyed out on social media too:

“Despite CC’s impressive statistical credentials, he set team goals ahead of personal goals,” Brian Cashman said in a statement. “And when you have a player of his stature displaying that type of selflessness, it tends to manifest itself inside every corner of the clubhouse. CC was a difference maker for this organization in a multitude of ways, and it’s gratifying for us to see him receive baseball’s highest honor.”

Among the many great Sabathia moments, my favorite is “That’s for you, bitch!” A selfless act in which he was willing to forfeit half-a-million bucks to stand up for his teammate (the Yankees did pay him the bonus anyway), and he took the Rays down a peg. Disrespecting the Rays always gets the RAB stamp of approval. Here are all the statements the Yankees released after the Hall of Fame announcement. They all praise Sabathia for being a great teammate.

Aaron Boone: “He is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer because of his exceptional body of work on the bump – but for me, his greater legacy is the type of teammate he was. He always put team over self.”

Aaron Judge: “As a teammate, CC was the ultimate glue that held us together, celebrating our successes and supporting us through our challenges.”

Joe Girardi: “He was such a great connector in the clubhouse, and he brought teams together.”

Derek Jeter: “His career on the field speaks for itself, but it’s his career as a teammate that stands out the most.”

Jorge Posada: “He had a remarkable career, and he was one of my favorite teammates I played with.”

Leading up to the Hall of Fame announcement, Sabathia told Pete Caldera he wanted “to win, to take the ball every single time out, to be that good teammate and be there for the guys, that’s all I ever wanted.” He did that everywhere he played. Sabathia wasn’t popular with the opposition (see: the Rays) but everyone who played with him loved him. CC was a true franchise player.

As good as he was with the Yankees, Sabathia’s signature moment was his 2008 run with the Brewers. With a record free agent contract on the horizon, and with a team he’d joined only two months earlier, CC made four starts in 13 days to send the Brewers to the postseason for the first time in a quarter-century. Two earned runs in 21.2 innings in three starts on three days’ rest. A legendarily selfless act, that was.

“I went into (manager Dale Sveum's) office and told him I was pitching,” Sabathia told Adam McCalvy years later. “The Brewers shouldn’t take any blame (if I get hurt). It was all on me.”

For the Yankees, Sabathia was the ace of their most recent World Series winner. He was the ALCS MVP that year. He threw a complete game in Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS to send the Yankees to the ALCS. He outpitched peak Corey Kluber in Game 5 to complete the 2017 ALDS comeback. He started that game because, with the season on the line, the Yankees trusted Old Man CC over 27-year-old Sonny Gray.

Sabathia gave the Yankees everything he had right up until his shoulder gave out in Game 4 of the 2019 ALCS, and even then he kept trying. "Felt terrible," he joked after that game, adding he felt his shoulder pop out three pitches before his final pitch. “… When I was throwing those pitches to (George) Springer, I couldn't even look up to see where I was throwing the ball. Letting it go, whatever happened, happened."

"I told (my wife) Amber last night that this was kind of the best way for it to end for me," he added. "Because the way I've been feeling – loving the bullpen and jogging out, feeling pretty good – I feel like about July of next year I would've been like, 'I can pitch.' The way I feel now I obviously can't. It's kind of fitting. I threw until I couldn't anymore."

Now that Sabathia is in the Hall of Fame, can we get him in Monument Park please? I think No. 52 should be retired (no Yankee has worn it since Sabathia), but if the Yankees don’t want to go there, alright. I don’t agree, but okay. CC deserves at least a plaque though, right? He was a transformative figure in the team’s history, and, you know, a really great pitcher. Put him in Monument Park, Yankees. (And while we’re at it, invite Ichiro to Old Timers’ Day too.)

Unless something unexpected happens with A-Rod or Robbie Canó, it’ll be a while until the next Yankees’ Hall of Famer. Maybe Gerrit Cole, maybe Aaron Judge, maybe Giancarlo Stanton. We’re talking about a decade's wait, and possibly longer. Sabathia’s in though, and that makes me happy. First ballot too. I thought he might have to wait a few years. Now that he’s in the Hall of Fame, the next mission is Monument Park.

2. Yankees announce 2025 coaching staff. In a sure sign Spring Training is approaching, the Yankees announced their 2025 big league coaching staff earlier this week. Not the most exciting stuff, I know, but it is actual news in mid January, and it means we’re getting close to pitchers and catchers. Here is the big league staff the Yankees will employ this coming season:

Only one change, and that’s Preston Claiborne taking over as assistant pitching coach. He replaces Desi Druschel, who took a job with the Mets earlier this winter. Yes, this is that Preston Claiborne. The Preston Claiborne who threw 71.1 innings with a 3.79 ERA (4.00 FIP) with the Yankees from 2013-14. He also got into one game with the Rangers in 2017.

Now 37, Claiborne finished up his playing career in 2019 and started coaching with the Yankees in 2020. He was going to be their rookie Gulf Coast League pitching coach in 2020, then the pandemic canceled the minor league season. Claiborne has since been the pitching coach with the rookie Florida State League Yankees (2021-22), High-A Hudson Valley (2023), and Low-A Tampa (2024). 

Going from High-A in 2023 to Low-A in 2024 is technically a demotion, though that was a function of the Yankees sending certain coaches to certain levels to work with certain prospects. They do that with hitting coaches, pitching coaches, and defensive coaches. Most notably, Claiborne worked with 2023 draftees Josh Grosz and Cade Smith, and 2024 Top 30 Prospect Luis Serna, with the Tarpons last year. Plus a few dozen others.

I can’t tell you much about Claiborne as a coach, though obviously the Yankees believe in him enough to add him to their Major League staff. Druschel was their hands-on pitch design guy who helped with grip changes and things like that. I assume that’s the role Claiborne will fill. Matt Blake helps with that stuff, for sure, though his job involves a lot of big picture stuff (game planning, etc.). Pitching coach is a 2-3 man job these days.

Although the coaching staff was announced this week, Claiborne has likely been on the job for weeks now, and communicating/working with his pitchers, especially those down in Tampa. He's been in the organization long enough that he's worked with a few of the big league guys in the past, so it should be a pretty seamless transition from Druschel to Claiborne.

As for Blake, his contract is up after the season (like Aaron Boone’s). For as long as I can remember, the Yankees have let the contracts of their coaches and front office people (including Brian Cashman) play out and expire before discussing a new deal. I don’t agree with that philosophy, I think it’s shortsighted, but it’s what they do. Pitching coaches make pretty big money these days and Blake seems well aware of his worth.

We’ll see how the season goes. Maybe it turns out Druschel was the brains behind the operation the whole time, or a poor year leads to a new manager and coaching staff turnover. Or, maybe, Claiborne is being groomed to replace Blake. Much like players, teams will move on coaches when they start to get too expensive and there’s a cheaper alternative in-house. A lot can change in 10 months. A lot.

Also, Luis Rojas returning as third base coach is not a surprise, though I don’t like it. He was so bad last season! I’m not going to say Gleyber Torres is a good baserunner, but he made seven outs on the bases last year and six of them were getting thrown out at home. That ain’t all on Gleyber. I’m certain Rojas has value to the Yankees beyond his third base coach duties, but man, he was so bad last year. He was bad even by “every fan thinks their team’s third base coach is bad” standards.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Old pal Lou Trivino threw a showcase at Eric Cressey’s facility in Florida earlier this week and the Yankees were among the teams in attendance, per Pat Ragazzo. That passes the sniff test. The Yankees attend all these showcases. After two seasons lost to injury, Trivino is looking at a minor league contract. My annual non-roster invitee preview is coming Monday and another non-roster righty reliever is pretty much the last thing the Yankees need to add before camp, but there is no such thing as too much pitching. They know Trivino and he knows them, so maybe that leads to a reunion. We’ll see … In recent days Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak said the team has more financial flexibility than expected, and owner Bill DeWitt said they don’t need to cut money to keep Nolan Arenado. So they’re in the “actually, we can keep Arenado, we’re totally not desperate to move him” phase with Spring Training approaching. I don’t think the Yankees will trade for him and the three years remaining on his contract, but the chances it happens aren’t 0%. Corbin Burnes was traded on Feb. 1st. Mookie Betts was traded on Feb. 10th. Alex Rodriguez was traded on Feb. 16th. There is plenty of precedent for high-profile trades going down in February. Plenty of time for Arenado to land in Not St. Louis … And finally, the Yankees have added an exhibition game to their Spring Training schedule. They’re going to loanDepot Park to play the Marlins on Tuesday, March 25th. The Yankees have to play the Mets on Florida’s Atlantic Coast in Port St. Lucie that Monday, so they’ll just bring everyone on that trip and go from Tampa (Sunday) to Port St. Lucie (Monday) to Miami (Tuesday) to New York (Tuesday night) that final week of Spring Training. Wednesday’s an off-day, then Opening Day is Thursday, March 27th, against the Brewers at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were supposed to play an exhibition against the Blue Jays in Montreal at the end of camp in 2020, before the pandemic. I hope they do that one of these years.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Thank you everyone for the mailbag question after I asked for them Tuesday. Ask for mailbag questions and the inbox gets flooded. A tale as old as time. Thank you for real. Please don't take it personally if I don't get to your question. There are a lot of them, more than I can answer, plus some I don't know how to answer because I'm dummy or because I don't know how to look up whatever it is that needs to be looked up. Also, I had a Jurickson Profar mailbag question written up before he signed with the Braves on Thursday. That's in the Content Graveyard now. Here now are this week's questions.

Adam asks: I really appreciated your HOF ballot explainer piece on CBS Sports. Do you think ballots should remain confidential and that it should remain up to the voter to decide if they want to share?

No, absolutely not. If you fill out a Hall of Fame ballot, it should be made public, and I would go a step further and say you should have to explain your ballot. I don’t care if it’s a 200-word blog post on the BBWAA's site, but explain it. Transparency and accountability is everything in this business. If you won’t explain yourself, how can you expect the players and people you cover to do the same? Also, I must note the BBWAA has twice voted overwhelmingly in favor of making all Hall of Fame ballots public, but the Hall of Fame shot it down. The ballot includes a little box to check if you want yours to be made public, and the Hall of Fame says those ballots will be revealed on Feb. 4th. A lot of them are already on the ballot tracker, but not all. But no, I don't think ballots should remain confidential unless the voter agrees to make it public. If you fill out a ballot, it should be made public, and I would like an explainer as well.

Steve asks: What do you think the dodgers are doing? Especially with all the deferred money. The Yankees outbid a lot of teams in the early 2000s but this seems kinda different. Are they just trying to get the Asian market and hope to just get all the great talents coming up from there? Or do you think they are trying to pump the value of the team and sell? The dodgers were bought out of bankruptcy court for “only” 2.1 billion which was I believe was the 2nd highest valued team behind the Yankees. But 13 years later they are worth more than double that. I wonder if this is some sort of situation where they just try to win a few more rings and sell once the contracts start coming off the books. Or so the owners just love spending money and winning? Ha

Occam’s Razor: They’re trying to win. I don’t think Dodgers’ ownership is planning to sell in the near future (call it the next 10-15 years). In fact, the deferrals suggest the exact opposite. Teams with little money on the books long-term are most attractive to buyers, not teams with over $1 billion in deferred payments coming their way. The Angelos family got their salary commitments down to a minimum before they sold the Orioles. The Twins are doing the same now. Prospective Dodgers’ buyers won’t like assuming all that deferred money and it would be reflected in the sale price.

Shohei Ohtani’s deferrals were his idea and the Dodgers are seizing the opportunity. Those deferrals give the Dodgers tremendous flexibility, and they’re using it to improve the team, which is what Ohtani wanted. They’re holding up their end of the bargain. And once the ball gets rolling, and this player and that player take deferrals, it becomes easier for others to jump on board. The Dodgers do have an older core. Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and others are in their 30s. Seems to me they’re doing what they can to win as much as they can now, and are leveraging their financial might to do it.

There is definitely an international component to this. The Japanese media I see around the ballpark have said Ohtani is the most popular person in Japan, and his dog is probably No. 2. Generations of Japanese people/players will grow up rooting for the Dodgers because of him. It felt like the Dodgers announced a new sponsorship agreement with a Japanese company every week last season. The inroads the Dodgers have made in Japan because of Ohtani can not be quantified. We’re talking generational influence. There is not a doubt in my mind his $700M contract will pay for itself and then some.

And, of course, Ohtani’s presence helps the Dodgers get guys like Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Sasaki was a special case given the bonus pools, but keep in mind Yamamoto did not take a discount. He signed a record contract. Ohtani might’ve helped the Dodgers get across the finish line, but Yamamoto did not volunteer to take less, and I don’t think you’ll see Japanese players taking discounts to play with Ohtani year after year. It just so happens the Dodgers can afford record contracts, so they have the money and Ohtani’s pull. (Again, Sasaki will be the exception, not the rule.)

Ultimately, the Dodgers are owned by business people, and everything they do is done because it’s good business. Winning is good business. It’s great business, really. So is employing Ohtani, and the fact he was open to such a team-friendly contract structure was a gift from the baseball gods. The Dodgers are making the most of it. I don’t think there’s any super secret reason they are doing what they’re doing. They’re just trying to win, and make themselves the most money in the process.

Sandeep asks: What do you see as the big issues for the next CBA? There’s huge finance structural issues as the league transitions from cable to streaming, of course, but we’ll at least see the interim if not long term plan in place by that time. Beyond that there may be some momentum for a salary floor, addressing the deferrals “loophole” and the holdover international draft and FA draft pick comp issues. I imagine the players really want to adjust the QO too, since it really seems to suppress their markets. What else do you see?

I think the biggest issue will be the increasing revenue disparity between big market teams with their own television networks, and everyone else. This has been an issue for a while, and the collapse of Diamond Sports Group (i.e. Bally Sports) has exacerbated things. The owners will ask for a salary cap, and they might have the best argument for one they’ve ever had, but they know that’s DOA. The union won’t agree to it. There’s a reason a salary cap has been like a two-day conversation every CBA negotiation since the 1994-95 strike. The owners ask, the players forcefully say no, and then they move on.

Although the MLBPA must agree to everything, the revenue disparity is an ownership issue. Small market teams will push for more revenue sharing and big market teams will fight it. There’s a lot of “your team could have done this” going around with the Dodgers, and while that’s true with some things (like signing Kirby Yates), it is not true that every team could run the highest payroll in baseball by $70M, like the Dodgers are right now. I’m not sure it is Bad For Baseball, but it is definitely a thing the owners want to fix.

And, of course, the proposed fix will come with some element that suppresses player salaries. In the end, that’s all this is. Billionaires and millionaires fighting over how to split up the money. The revenue disparity will create owner infighting and that could get messy with small market teams feeling a financial squeeze they haven’t felt in a long time. For some of these owners, they’ve never felt it. Relying on attendance and gate revenue is scary to them, because you have to earn that. Television money was locked in.

Things like the qualifying offer, free agent compensation, and the draft all get put on the back-burner. The money is the most important thing come CBA time, and nothing else gets discussed until that problem is solved. Moreso than at any point in recent CBAs, the owners will have to solve that problem among themselves, then figure it out with the union. Big market vs. small market could get messy when the CBA expires in two years. Messy enough to cause work stoppage that costs games? I’m worried the answer is yes.

Anthony asks: Seeing the offseason the Dodgers are having leads me to think that we’re more likely to see a salary cap in the next CBA than we are to see the Yankees act accordingly unfortunately. I’m not a big fan of the idea - I would prefer the Yankees just acted like the YANKEES but I digress - however it did get me thinking about a system where only acquired players would count towards the salary cap/luxury tax. So basically if a player is acquired prior to exceeding rookie eligibility - via trade, draft, etc. - they would never count towards the spending limit as long as they remain with that team. If a player is acquired, a percentage of their future earnings would count depending on when they were acquired - pre-arb would be 50%, free agent 100%, something along those lines. So for example, Aaron Judge would never count towards the Yankees salary limit, but Gerrit Cole would. Incentivizes teams to promote from within, focus on developing prospects and a home grown core, makes it easier for small market teams to invest in the free agent market (if the Pirates don’t have to worry about Paul Skenes counting towards the cap, they might be more inclined to pursue free agent pitching). Makes trades and free agent signings more interesting because there’s more financial risk involved if it doesn’t work out. Obviously it’s not perfect but could a system along those lines make for an interesting compromise between a straight salary cap and the current system?

The problem with a rule along these lines – you get a luxury tax break for signing/re-signing certain players – is not every team will benefit. Only a handful of teams pay luxury tax each year, or even approach the threshold. A record nine teams paid luxury tax in 2024, per Ron Blum. That means 21 teams did not pay tax, and many of them were nowhere close to the $237M threshold. This system wouldn’t help them in any way. The Pirates, for example, had a $122.9M luxury tax payroll in 2024, and Cot's has their projected 2025 luxury tax payroll at $137.4M. They could give Skenes a $60M a year extension and they still wouldn’t come close to the luxury tax threshold, so what does this rule do for them? Really, all this would do is make it less painful for the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees to keep homegrown players. I’m all for a rule that encourages and rewards teams for spending, especially cheap teams, but I don’t think anything tied to the luxury tax would work. Only a few teams swim in that pool. Maybe something tied to revenue sharing instead? Sign a homegrown guy long-term and you can deduct his salary from the chunk of local revenue you have to throw in the pot? I dunno.

Brian asks: Are signing bonuses factored in at all for the luxury tax? Besides the fact that no team would put up all that money up front is there anything stopping a team offering a 100 million dollar signing bonus and a low AAV contract?

Yes, signing bonuses are luxury taxed. They’re guaranteed money, so they’re taxed. Believe me, if skirting the luxury tax was as easy as offering an upfront signing bonus and smaller annual salaries, teams would have been doing it for a very long time. Several of these Dodgers’ deals (Tommy Edman, Tanner Scott, Blake Snell, etc.) include a large signing bonus and deferrals, so what they’re doing is giving the player a big pile of cash now in exchange for delaying some payments further down the line, and the deferrals lower the luxury tax number. Like I said two weeks ago, I have no issue with deferrals. Let teams and players structure contracts however they want. Just change the luxury tax calculation and use straight average annual value with no present day value adjustment. That’s the easiest, most straightforward solution (if MLB and the MLBPA believe a solution is needed, which I’m not sure they do).

(After I wrote this, it was reported Anthony Santander's $92.5M contract with the Blue Jays includes $61.75 million in deferred salary. It's enough to lower his annual luxury tax hit from $23.125M to $13.7M.)

Matt asks: Question about the posting system. I know if the dodgers gave Sasaki an extension now it would raise issues. The normal rookie contract is 6 years? What if they gave him an extension after year two or three? Say he wins rookie of the year and then Cy young in year three and Dodgers give him some crazy Fernando Tatis Jr deal or something? Would it still be against the spirit of the posting system?

It shouldn’t be an issue in a few years. You can’t promise international amateur free agents that you’ll sign them to an extension or that you’ll put them on the 40-man roster as part of the recruiting process, but if a player comes in, earns a roster spot, and performs well enough that you want to lock him up long-term, it’s not an issue. Tatis, Ronald Acuña Jr., Yordan Alvarez, José Ramírez, and many others originally signed as international amateur free agents and then signed long-term extensions early in their MLB careers. No reason Sasaki can’t do the same. It would only be a problem if the Dodgers promised him an extension when they were recruiting him, and even then, how does MLB prove they did that?

Chris asks: The Yankees for some made up reason pivot late and decide they do want to blow past the self imposed salary cap of $304M. What are the immediate moves you’re making to fill out the holes remaining on the roster? What’s the final payroll and subsequent tax penalty?

Pier asks: Let's imagine the Yankees want to trade for Carlos Correa (surely they won't, but that could be amazing). 1. What would it take to get him from the Twins? Stroman probably needs to be involved. 2. Could the Yankees restructure the contract and try to defer part of the money?

Ben asks: I wonder if Edouard Julien or Jose Miranda is worth a further look as a potential 2nd/3rd base pickup. Both at least have some track record of production at the ML level and seem squeezed out in MN. Maybe we take on either Christian Vazquez or Chris Paddack to lower the cost (MTPS). Thanks!

I’m lumping these three questions together, because when I read about hypothetically blowing past the self-imposed payroll limit (Chris’ question), my first thought was Correa (Pier’s question) and taking on Vázquez’s and/or Paddack’s money (Ben’s question) to lower the prospect cost. 

Other than Bo Bichette, there are no infielders close to Correa’s caliber set to hit free agency until Gunnar Henderson in four years. Maybe someone shakes loose on the trade market, but free agency? Nope. If you want to spend big on the bat the next few years, you’re signing a first baseman (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) or a corner outfielder (Randy Arozarena, Kyle Tucker, etc.). Elite infield talent just won’t be there.

The Twins put the clamps on payroll last offseason and are hiding behind their local television situation as an excuse (Aaron Gleeman’s done a great job covering the team’s pauperism). I get it, it’s a scary and uncertain time for these teams, but the Diamondbacks are in the same boat, and they just signed Corbin Burnes. Small market is a mindset. ANYWAY, trading Correa would clear a lot of money. Here’s what he’s owed:

• 2025: $36M

• 2026: $31.5M

• 2027: $30.5M

• 2028: $30M

• 2029: $25M club option (no buyout)

• 2030: $20M club option (no buyout)

• 2031: $15M club option (no buyout)

• 2032: $10M club option (no buyout)

That’s four years and $128M ($32M per year) covering Correa’s age 30-33 seasons, then you get four (!) club options with declining salaries. You get the remainder of his peak, more or less, without having to lock yourself into his deep decline years. I don’t think team-friendly is the right term, but that contract is not that painful. Not for a shortstop who’s hit .272/.351/.453 (127 wRC+) the last three years.

Vázquez ($10M) and Paddack ($7.5M) are one-year rentals. Vázquez stopped hitting two years ago but remains a good defender. Paddack has not been healthy and effective at the same time since 2019. I would stick him in the bullpen and let him air it out one inning at a time, and see what happens. Might be time to give up on him as a starter. Both guys are overpaid, but the one-year commitment makes it easier to swallow.

Correa + Vázquez + Paddack = $53.5M in 2025. The Twins get enormous salary relief, plus they already have Correa’s replacement (top prospect Brooks Lee) and Vázquez’s replacement (Jair Camargo) ready to go. They can use the savings on pitching, which they badly need. Would they take back Marcus Stroman and his $18M in the trade? Minnesota would still save $35.5M in 2025 by taking on Stroman.

The Yankees would get a massive upgrade at third base, the position Correa was going to play with the Mets before that deal fell apart a few years ago, and a defense-first backup catcher who is better than all their in-house backup catcher candidates. And a lottery ticket arm. Even if they keep Stroman and take on all that money, the Yankees’ 2025 luxury tax payroll would still be about $20M south of the Dodgers’.

Obviously the Yankees won’t do this. They’re not juicing payroll this much. This is what I would do with the payroll limit raised though. Call the Twins and see just how little they’re willing to take in return if we eat all the money owed to Correa, Paddack, and Vázquez. POBO Derek Falvey downplayed the possibility of a Correa trade a few weeks ago. Well, call him, and make him say no to the offer.

To further answer Ben’s question, Julien would have been a big deal about 20 years ago, when Moneyball was the new thing. He’s a one-tool player and that one tool is walks. Not much power, high strikeout rate, poor defense, no real baserunning value. Going all in on run prevention and then putting Julien at second base would be … curious. Luis Arraez will at least hit .320, you know? I'd rather a one-tool who hits singles than a one-tool guy who walks.

Miranda’s interesting. Offensively, he has the Miguel Andujar/Gio Urshela skill set. Swings at everything, makes lots of contact, rarely walks, will put a mistake in the seats. Miranda has more hard-hit ability than Miggy/Gio though, especially to the pull side. Defense at third is a little shaky, and he’s not gonna steal you any bases. He’s the kinda guy who could run a .375 BABIP for three months and hit .310/.350/.450.

Julien is a man without a role. He’s slotted in as a platoon DH right now, and might even wind up back in Triple-A. There’s always a price where it makes sense, but Julien’s skill set is so limited that I wouldn’t pursue him aggressively. Miranda is slated to be Minnesota’s full-time first baseman with Carlos Santana gone. He’s better than the scrap heap second/third basemen sitting in free agency. If the Twins are desperate enough to move Vázquez or Paddack’s money, then yeah, Miranda would make sense.

Dan asks: I know it's not going to happen, but I really think that the Yanks should try to sign Pete Alonso to a one-year deal that has multiple opt-outs. Let's say they do that, Goldschmidt moves to the bench and gives them some leeway in-case Stanton or Alonso get injured (and DJ can hopefully be cut). This wouldn't solve the 2nd base/3rd base issue, but they could roll with Oswaldo at 3rd and Jazz at 2nd. Signing Alonso would go against their run-prevention plan, but he'd help bolster their offense. If we take money out of the equation, do you think signing Pete Alonso could work with Goldschmidt and Stanton already on the roster?

The only way this could work is if the Yankees are willing to release DJ LeMahieu, and we have no reason to believe they’re willing to do that right now. Paul Goldschmidt would then step into LeMahieu’s bench spot alongside the backup catcher, Trent Grisham (the backup outfielder), and Oswaldo Cabrera (the backup infielder). I suppose the Yankees could trade Grisham and keep LeMahieu rather than release LeMahieu, but then you’re counting on Cabrera to back up every position except first base and catcher. I would rather have Pete Alonso at first base and in the middle of the lineup in 2025 than Goldschmidt, for sure. It feels like a lot of teams are going to look up on Sept. 1st and see Alonso with 30 homers and say you know what, maybe we shouldn’t have nickel-and-dimed him. I’ll believe he’s not going back to the Mets when I see it. It just makes too much sense now that he’s willing to do a short-term deal. Remember, Cody Bellinger did not re-sign with the Cubs until Feb. 27th last year, after weeks of “they’ve moved on” talk.

Tim asks: I’d like to get your thoughts on where you expect all the starting pitching prospects will start the year. If Stroman is traded, that puts a lot of unproven guys in the 6,7 and 8 spots. Please calm my fears about Will Warren getting 15 starts this year!

Warren’s not as bad as we saw last year, but he is higher up on the rotation depth chart that I would like (ostensibly No. 7). Trade Marcus Stroman, and Warren moves up another rung to No. 6. Yikes! This is my best guess at what the minor league rotations will look like to begin the season:

• Triple-A: Warren, Brandon Leibrandt, Zach Messinger, Ben Shields, Trystan Vrieling

• Double-A: Kyle Carr, Chase Hampton, Brock Selvidge, Cam Schlittler, Baron Stuart

• High-A: Bryce Cunningham, Ben Hess, Josh Grosz, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Cade Smith

• Low-A: Thatcher Hurd, Carlos Lagrange, Henry Lalane, Saber Marte, Gage Ziehl

Of course a lot can and will change between now and Opening Day. Elbows will pop in Spring Training. It is inevitable. Hopefully the spring injuries are kept to a minimum and the Yankees bounce back from last year’s injury-riddled season in the minors. Looking at that Triple-A rotation, please don’t rush into a Stroman trade, Yankees. The rotation depth chart thins out quick behind him.

Paul asks: You mentioned in your Tuesday post that several Yankees pitchers rank highly in opposing batter fast-swing rate and that perhaps the Yankees are targeting this type of pitcher. You've been looking at exit velocity suppressors to see whom they might target next. I'm assuming there's a pretty high correlation across those 2 metrics: low fast-swing rate probably leads to low exit velocity, right? This is just, perhaps, a better indicator of future success (the process) than GB rate (the result), right?

There is a correlation between fast swing rate and average exit velocity, which, duh. Here is the graph. I set the minimum to 250 plate appearances in 2025:

That dot all by itself in the upper right corner? That’s Giancarlo Stanton, the king of bat speed and exit velocity. Anyway, an r² of 0.49 means a moderate correlation. I think? Been a while since I took statistics or any kinda math. Faster swings creating more exit velocity certainly passes the sniff test, at least.

There are many different ways to use exit velocity (average, max, 90th percentile, etc.) and some are more predictive than others, but, generally speaking, the higher the exit velocity, the higher the SLG across all batted ball types (ground balls, fly balls, etc.). Basic GB% can be noisy BABIP-wise. Exit velocity within GB% is much predictive. A 90 mph grounder goes for a hit more than a 75 mph grounder, etc.

We’re getting more and more granular. First we looked at where the ball was hit. Then it was how hard the ball was hit. Now it’s how fast the swing is that produced the ball that was hit that hard. It’s overwhelming! I have to understand this stuff on some level, it is my job, but it does make my head spin sometimes. As for the Yankees, we know they like to limit SLG, so they prioritize ground balls and exit velocity suppressors. The logical next step is pitchers who keep hitters from taking big swings.

A different Brian asks: I heard this thrown out there a few years ago when there was talk about a signing period for free agents: What are your thoughts on an offseason trade deadline? If your roster has holes after January 15 (or something) you need to sign players to fix those or wait until March something to make trades.

I would greatly prefer an offseason trade deadline to a free agent signing deadline. A signing deadline would straight up deny players employment, and you know teams will leverage that against them in a way that will get nasty. The top of the market guys, the Juan Sotos and Corbin Burneses, they always get theirs. It’s the mid-range free agents who are already getting squeezed that would get squeezed even more by a signing deadline.

A trade freeze from, say, Jan. 10th (roughly the start of arbitration season) to March 20th (teams need a chance to add to their roster before Opening Day in case of Spring Training injuries), could help both the trade and free agent markets. It forces teams to act on their trade candidates/targets rather than drag things into February (like Burnes last year), and also clarifies the market for free agents. At least part of the reason Alex Bregman is unsigned is Nolan Arenado’s presence on the trade market, and vice versa.

Almost nothing in this sport happens without a deadline. So many front office weenies are hyper focused on ~efficiency~ that they’re afraid to make decisions, so we have to force them. Maybe a trade freeze wouldn’t actually accomplish anything – what’s the difference between trading for a guy on Jan. 9th vs. March 21st? – but I’m willing to give it a try. Much moreso than a signing deadline. Force teams to make trades by a certain date, and they’ll make trades by that date, and change the offseason “schedule.”

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)