November 19th, 2024: Gil, Soto, Judge, Volpe, Rule 5 Draft, Vivas

The Offseason Plan is a go for Friday. It is written – 18,974 words before edits – and now I just need to read through it again, edit it, etc. Friday’s regularly scheduled post will run Thursday, then the Offseason Plan will run Friday. Thanks for being patient. Blame the Yankees for going to the World Series. Maybe they’ll have the decency to win it next time if they’re gonna make me delay the Offseason Plan. ANYWAY, let’s get to Tuesday’s post.

1. Gil wins Rookie of the Year. If not for Gerrit Cole’s Spring Training elbow injury, Luis Gil would have started the season in Triple-A, and who knows if/when he would have been called up? Fast forward eight months and now Gil is the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year. He was announced as the winner Monday night, beating out fellow finalists Colton Cowser and teammate Austin Wells.

“It means so much to me,” Gil told Gary Phillips following Monday’s announcement. “I’m so happy about being able to win this award. Everybody in my corner, they’re so happy for me right now and so proud."

It was a very, very, very close race. Gil beat Cowser by five points. Here’s the voting:

Cowser appeared on more ballots than Gil (27 vs. 26), but the first place votes gave Gil the award. This is the second closest AL vote behind 2003, when Angel Berroa beat out Hideki Matsui by four points (88-84). Paul Skenes won NL Rookie of the Year. He and Gil are the first starting pitchers to win the award since Michael Fulmer in 2016. This is the first time two pitchers have won since Jeremy Hellickson and Craig Kimbrel in 2011. It’s the first time two starting pitchers have won since Fernando Valenzuela and Dave Righetti in 1981.

Gil is the fifth Dominican-born Rookie of the Year, joining Berroa, Alfredo Griffin (1979), Neftali Feliz (2010), and Julio Rodríguez (2022). He’s the tenth Yankee to win the award. The others: Gil McDougald (1951), Bob Grim (1954), Tony Kubek (1957), Tom Tresh (1962), Stan Bahnsen (1968), Thurman Munson (1970), Dave Righetti (1981), Derek Jeter (1996), and Aaron Judge (2017). Only the Dodgers (18) have had more Rookie of the Year winners.

After beating out Will Warren for the No. 5 spot as Cole’s replacement, Gil threw 151.2 innings with a 3.50 ERA (4.14 FIP) and a 26.8 K%. He also made two postseason starts. Gil did lead baseball with 77 walks, though his .189 AVG allowed was second lowest among the 71 pitches with at least 150 innings. Only Hunter Greene (.183 AVG) was lower. Gil had five starts with no more than one hit allowed, the most by a rookie since the mound was moved to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893.

The Yankees will not get a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick for Gil because he did not meet the top 100 prospects list criteria, and because he had too much service time (Gil spent the entire 2023 season on the MLB 60-day injured list as he completed his Tommy John surgery rehab). Here are the PPI eligibility rules:

• Appear on at least two top 100 lists from Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.

• Rookie-eligible and fewer than 60 days of service time (including time spent on the injured list ).

• Accrue a full year of service time as a rookie.

Gil was not on any top 100 lists this spring because he barely pitched last year following elbow reconstruction, and he has a history of control issues. It wasn’t egregious that he wasn’t a top 100 prospect. I had Gil as the 12th best prospect in the system before the season. He was way better than I think even the Yankees expected. Gil mastered his changeup and improved his slider as the season went on.

The Yankees don’t get a PPI pick for Gil but hey, the Orioles don’t get one for Cowser either. They would have gotten one had he won the award. The Yankees would have gotten one for Wells had he won. They could still get for Wells if he manages to finish in the top three of the MVP voting in 2025 or 2026. That’s unlikely. Finishing top three in the MVP voting is hard. Lots of good players out there.

It has been more than six years since the Yankees traded Jake Cave to the Twins for Gil. Gil was in the Dominican Summer League at the time and hardly a top prospect. He was the quintessential lottery ticket arm. What a player development success for the Yankees. Calling him a savior is a bit strong, but Gil came up so big for the Yankees this year. Wells too. He was great much of the summer. Congrats to Gil. What a cool and (at least to me) unexpected Rookie of the Year win.

2. Obsessive Soto Watch. I can guarantee you there will be Juan Soto news Tuesday. The qualifying offer decision deadline is 4pm ET, so we’ll get official word Soto’s passing on the $21.05M offer later today. As for his free agency, Soto and Scott Boras have spent the last few days meeting with teams in Southern California, and they have at least one more coming up. Here’s the latest:

• The Yankees had their meeting with Soto and Boras late Monday afternoon, so says Jon Heyman. Aaron Boone, Brian Cashman, and Hal Steinbrenner were in attendance and Hal is believed to be “all in," per Bob Klapisch. There’s no word on how the meeting went, but when was the last time we heard one of these things went poorly? They all go well, allegedly.

• Mets owner Steve Cohen, POBO David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza met with Soto and Boras on Saturday, per Heyman. They made a “very detailed” presentation and are “hopeful,” though it’s unknown whether any offers were made or numbers were exchanged.

• The Red Sox met with Soto last Thursday, according to Sean McAdam. Soto asked them about their commitment to winning and their player evaluation methods, among other things. That’s the first bit of information we’ve gotten about what Soto is asking teams.

• The Dodgers will meet with Soto and Boras sometime this week, per Mark Feinsand. Feinsand says at least one team that hasn’t been reported has also met with Soto (Nationals? Phillies?).

For what it’s worth, Heyman (subs. req’d) says the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and exceeding Aaron Judge’s $40M annual salary. That would take Soto through his age 38 season (Judge is signed through age 39) and sets their baseline offer at 13 years and $520M. It’s gonna take more, methinks. I think it’s more likely Soto’s deal starts with a 7 than a 5.

The quarterly owners meetings begin Tuesday and they’re in New York. I’m sure a few local reporters will be around to stick a recorder in front of Steinbrenner (and Cohen), and get him to say something about Soto. He’ll say something like “we had a productive meeting and we want to keep Soto in pinstripes.” Hal is nothing if not predictable. But at least he’ll have to go on the record with something.

No one seems to know what’s coming after the meetings are complete. Will Soto and Boras then solicit offers? Will he whittle down his list and visit cities? Does he even need to do that for the Yankees? Seems to me the only piece of information Soto needs from the Yankees is how many zeroes. The Winter Meetings are three weeks away. I don’t think this drags out any longer than that.

(Here’s where I point out Soto is four months younger than Luis Gil, the AL Rookie of the Year.)

3. Random tidbit: Judge and Volpe and OAA. I’ve been sitting on this stat for weeks and I wasn’t really sure what to do with it, and I figured I should just throw it out there before it's too late. In 2024, Anthony Volpe the hitter fell victim to the best defense in baseball while Aaron Judge the hitter benefited from some of the worst defense in baseball. Here is the OAA leaderboard among the 239 hitters who hit into 200+ defensive chances:

1. Anthony Volpe: +12 OAA
2. Wyatt Langford: +10 OAA
3. Jordan Westburg: +9 OAA
…
237. Aaron Judge: -10 OAA
238. Josh Bell: -11 OAA
239. Heliot Ramos: -12 OAA

Opposing teams played Gold Glove defense when Volpe was at the plate and terrible defense when Judge was at the plate. They’re on the same team! They hit against the same defenses! In fact, Judge and Volpe are outliers among the Yankees. Most of the rest of the Yankees were bunched together close to +0 OAA (i.e. league average), then you have Judge and Volpe on the extremes:

A lot of the game’s very best hitters are near Judge at the bottom of the OAA leaderboard. Yordan Alvarez (-9 OAA), Marcell Ozuna (-8 OAA), Brent Rooker (-7 OAA), José Ramírez (-6 OAA), on and on. I wonder if Statcast has issues grading out defense against guys who hit the everloving crap out of the ball. It can be difficult to properly measure anything at the extremes, and Judge is certainly extreme in terms of how hard he hits the ball.

I’m not sure what to make of opposing teams playing literally the best defense in baseball against Volpe though. Volpe hasn't lit up Statcast with big exit velocities, not even in 2023, so maybe it’s as simple as “he doesn’t hit the ball hard and makes it easy on defenses.” Seems plausible. Light-hitting Tyler Freeman (+9 OAA) and Jake Meyers (+9 OAA) are high on the leaderboard and they’re both weak contact guys like Volpe.

Volpe has speed, so in theory he puts pressure on the defense and could force mistakes (not all of which are errors given official scoring these days), but what if that’s wrong? What if defenses are on high alert against fast guys, and a speedy hitter leads to better defense? Volpe was at +7 OAA in 2023, again near the top of the leaderboard. This is now two straight years of hitting into elite defenses. Hmmm.

(Judge hit into -3 OAA while missing two months in 2023. Figure he would’ve finished in the -4 to -5 OAA range across a full season.)

I’m not sure where I’m going with this. I just thought it was interesting Judge and Volpe hit into extremely different defenses this year despite being teammates. Then again, they are extremely different hitters, and it certainly seems like it would be harder to play defense against Judge given how hard he hits the ball. A 117 mph ground ball or line drive will make even the best big league defenders antsy.

4. Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is 6pm ET Tuesday, so there will be news later today. The Yankees got a head start on their Rule 5 Draft protection when they called up Ben Rice and Will Warren during the season. Rice and Warren were, by frickin’ far, the Yankees’ two most notable Rule 5 Draft eligibles this year. Here’s the best of the rest: 

• Catchers: none

• Infielders: Caleb Durbin, TJ Rumfield

• Outfielders: none

• Righties: Cole Ayers, Bailey Dees, Alex Mauricio,  Zach Messinger

• Lefties: none

(Yerry De Los Santos and J.C. Escarra were added to the 40-man roster two weeks ago to prevent them from becoming minor league free agents. That doubled as Rule 5 Draft protection.)

The Yankees have five open 40-man roster spots but that does not mean they will add five players for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. It just means they have five open spots. They’re gonna need them throughout the offseason. Durbin’s obviously going on the 40-man. Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman both brought him up as a second base option in recent weeks. Durbin will get one of those five spots.

I poked around a bit and there seems to be some buzz around two players: Mauricio and Rumfield. Ayers, Dees, and Messinger are interesting pitch data guys who probably aren’t interesting enough to have a real chance to stick on a big league roster all next year. Messinger is the best prospect of the bunch and most likely to stick. The more likely outcome is he gets picked and then gets returned at some point, a la Matt Sauer this past season.

Mauricio, meanwhile, was a 27th round pick in 2017 and he retired in Dec. 2019, but he decided to give baseball another try, and was eventually reinstated in 2022 (the pandemic delayed his return). This past season the 28-year-old threw 49 Triple-A innings with a 2.39 ERA (4.12 FIP) and a 25.5 K%. Too many walks (13.0%) and not enough ground balls (35.5%), but the stuff pops …

• Four-seamer up to 97 mph

• Cutter up to 91 mph

• Mid-80s slider with big spin

…  and folks like Mauricio’s competitiveness. It’s not a lock the Yankees will protect him, it’s not a lock he’ll get taken, and it’s certainly not a lock he’ll stick next year, but Mauricio is at least on a few preference lists leading into the Rule 5 Draft. Teams have noticed the stuff and performance. Yeah, he’s already 28, but who cares? If you can get outs, you can get outs. They don’t care how old you are (especially if you’re cheap).

As for Rumfield, he slashed .292/.365/.461 (116 wRC+) with 15 homers and a 16.5 K% in 114 games with Triple-A Scranton this year. A first base only guy with a 116 wRC+ in Triple-A doesn’t jump off the page, you know? Rumfield is a good defender, so he has that going for him. First base defense only gets you so far though. Here are Rumfield’s Triple-A contact/plate discipline numbers:

• 90th percentile exit velocity: 102.2 mph (43rd percentile)

• Max exit velocity: 108.5 mph (48th percentile)

• Pulled fly ball rate: 6.1% (25th percentile)

• Chase rate: 28.5% (67th percentile)

• In-zone contact: 88.8% (86th percentile)

• SEAGER: 11.4 (42nd percentile)

What kinda upside are we talking about for a lefty hitting first baseman who doesn’t pull the ball in the air, doesn’t make great swing decisions, and was in the bottom half of Triple-A in contact qualify? That all said, there’s enough interest around the league that Rumfield could get picked. Sticking next season is another matter, but there’s enough interest that he could get taken, which equals a Spring Training audition.

Players get better and the 24-year-old Rumfield deserves more time to continue his development, but Tuesday is decision day. Either the Yankees put him on the 40-man roster, or he will be available in the Rule 5 Draft. If the Yankees do protect Rumfield, it won’t necessarily be because they believe he’s ready to be part of the first base solution in 2025. They just won’t want to potentially lose him for nothing in the Rule 5 Draft.

There are always small trades at the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline as teams get their 40-man in order, and move players they’re not going to protect before losing them for nothing. The Yankees last did this in 2021, when they sent Nick Nelson and Donny Sands to the Phillies for Rumfield and Joel Valdez. Maybe they have another small trade coming Tuesday. I dunno. We’ll find out in a few hours.

Durbin is definitely going on the 40-man roster. Mauricio and Rumfield (and Messinger) are toss ups and I would not be surprised to see them added to the 40-man, or left unprotected. Really could go either way. With all due respect, when Durbin is your no doubt about it protection candidate, it’s not a great year for your Rule 5 Draft eligibles. An important deadline, for sure. Just less important than usual this year.

5. Vivas in 2025. The Yankees have talked up Caleb Durbin as a second base option next year – “I think he's a stud … He'll play a big role for us this upcoming season,” Aaron Boone said last week – and it seems not great that fellow Triple-A infielder Jorbit Vivas has not gotten the same slip service. Vivas spent a few days with the Yankees in July, you may remember, though he never did get into a game.

“There could be a start for him this weekend, but no guarantees,” Boone told Greg Joyce during the series before the All-Star break. “Just going to let the weekend play (out). But he’s got some pop in the bat, can move well, he’s a good athlete. There were probably a few guys in consideration and he’s the guy that’s definitely earned the right to be here.”

By Boone standards, that is faint praise. Vivas slashed .252/.397/.396 (120 wRC+) in 46 games before his brief call up, sat on the big league bench for a few days, then went back to Scranton and hit .205/.310/.330 (71 wRC+) in 57 games the rest of the way. The end result was a .225/.347/.366 (92 wRC+) Triple-A line with nine homers, 20 steals, 16.6 K%, 13.3 BB%, and meh contact/plate discipline numbers:

• 90th percentile exit velocity: 100.8 mph (25th percentile)

• Max exit velocity: 109.8 mph (68th percentile)

• Pulled fly ball rate: 9.3% (56th percentile)

• Chase rate: 33.1% (36th percentile)

• In-zone contact: 88.1% (82nd percentile)

• SEAGER: 13.3 (57th percentile)

Vivas missed the first few weeks of the 2024 season with a freak broken orbital injury (he was working out when a resistance band snapped and hit him in the face) and he was swinging the bat really well before the call up, slashing .329/.466/.614 (182 wRC+) in his previous 20 games. Then he cooled off. Maybe sitting a few days threw Vivas off track? I’m sorry though, that’s life as an up/down player. It’s on you to adjust.

I ranked Vivas as the No. 9 prospect in the system before the season and said he’s a “high probability big leaguer and one who can be part of a contender’s roster, though likely as a complementary player rather than as a centerpiece.” Baseball America (“chance to be a second-division starter”) and Eric Longenhagen (“looks more like a second-division second baseman who’d perform at a 1.5-ish WAR clip across a whole season of at-bats”) had similar assessments. Good player, but not a difference-maker.

Vivas should be out of options. The Dodgers added him to the 40-man roster in Nov. 2021 and he used his three option years in 2022, 2023, and 2024. I say should though because I just do not understand the fourth option rules. It seems like MLB makes them up as they go at times. If for whatever reason Vivas is given a fourth option for 2025, great. The Yankees will send him back to Scranton and hope he performs better.

If Vivas is out of options though, the Yankees don’t have any good, well, options with him. His trade value is minimal and there is little reason to think he can contribute at the MLB level next year, but you also don’t want to put him on waivers and risk losing him for nothing. The Giants or Marlins or Rockies could claim Vivas, bring him to Spring Training, and see what’s what. Odds are he’s a goner on waivers.

I wonder then if the Yankees could non-tender Vivas at Friday’s deadline? A non-tender removes him from the 40-man roster without exposing him to waivers, then the Yankees could re-sign him to a new minor league contract. The Yankees did the non-tender/re-sign to a minor league deal move with Domingo Germán and Slade Heathcott back in the day, among others. It’s been a while, but they’ve done it.

The risk is another team could offer Vivas a Major League deal, though that’s a hard sell at the moment. It’s one thing to claim a guy on waivers and see if he lasts on your 40-man until Spring Training. The player has no say in that. It’s another thing to sell the guy on that when he can look at your roster and see that hmmm, I don’t have a great shot at the second base job, and the 40-man roster is crowded.

Non-tender Vivas and he’ll likely have his pick of several minor league contracts, not a Major League deal, in which case he’ll look for the best opportunity. Which team gives him the clearest path to a big league job? Well, the Yankees in that group, right? There are indications they will go cheap at second base. We might be looking at a Durbin/Oswald Peraza/veteran non-roster guy competition in camp.

Rejoining the Yankees on a minor league deal puts Vivas in that second base mix, and even if he doesn’t win a job in Spring Training, he’s a phone call away in Scranton. The Yankees can sometimes have trouble landing premium minor league contract guys because no one wants to sit behind whatever established player they have at that position. There should be no such issues with non-roster second base candidates going into 2025.

Friday is the non-tender deadline and decision day. Assuming the Yankees can’t/don’t trade Vivas by then, Friday will be the last (only) opportunity to take him off the 40-man roster without putting him on waivers. The Yankees could simply keep him and kick the can down the road, but they should be proactive here. Gauge his willingness to return on a minor league deal, then make a decision at the non-tender deadline.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The 2025 Hall of Fame ballot was released Monday. CC Sabathia is on the ballot for the first time and Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez are the notable Yankees who are holdovers. I have a Hall of Fame vote now and yes, I will write something explaining my ballot when the time comes (a few people asked about that). I’m in the BBWAA because of CBS, so my ballot explainer will go up there, and I’ll link to it here when the time comes. It’ll be a few weeks. Ballots don’t have to be postmarked until Dec. 31st and I’m not rushing into it … The Orioles are getting rid of Walltimore. GM Mike Elias said they “overcorrected” when they pushed the left field wall back three years ago, so it’s coming in next year. Not all the way back to where it was all those years, but in. Here’s the rendering the Orioles sent out:

The Orioles aren’t adding any seats. That empty space between the old wall and the new wall will remain ugly empty space. Statcast estimates say Walltimore robbed 138 homers the last three years, more than one every other game, and the new wall will give a few of those back. If the O’s sign Gleyber Torres now, something fishy is going on (I kid, I kid) … Marc Topkin has the logistical details on the Rays moving into George M. Steinbrenner Field next year, if you’re curious. Things like the Yankees keeping their executive offices in the ballpark, the Rays needing space to fulfill their advertising and sponsorship agreements, which team’s ballpark employees will be used, etc. The Rays are also looking into later start times to avoid the heat and afternoon showers. Gonna be a headache for them, for sure (John Romano says the Rays' new stadium is in jeopardy because the city council may not approve $300-something million in bonds, though I can't tell if he's reporting that or speculating) … And finally, one last bit of ballpark news: Minute Maid Park is now Daikin Park. The Astros announced the name change Monday. The internet tells me Daikin is the world’s largest air conditioner manufacturer. I look forward to finding out the Astros are stealing signs through the HVAC ducts in a few years (sometimes the lowest hanging fruit tastes the best).

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)