November 12th, 2024: Boone, Soto, Sasaki, Sugano, Estevéz, Walker

I forgot to mention this last week, but the two Dominican Winter League games at Yankee Stadium were canceled. Apparently it had something to do with the Yankees not being able to guarantee the ballpark’s readiness after the World Series. The games were supposed to be played this past Friday and Saturday. The game at Citi Field was played as scheduled Sunday and I watched an inning, and when I saw a five-pitch at-bat take four minutes, it reaffirmed my love of the pitch clock. It is the best thing to happen to baseball since the DH. Anyway, here now is today’s postdone.

1. Yankees pick up Boone’s option. The Yankees on Friday exercised Aaron Boone’s club option for 2025, so he will be back as manager next season. This was inevitable once they won the pennant. Also, changing managers when you’re in the middle of trying to convince Juan Soto to stay would’ve been a bit awkward. Soto presumably wants to know who he’s going to be playing for next year.

“I am grateful for the trust placed in me to lead this team. It’s a responsibility – and an opportunity – that I will never take lightly,” Boone said in a statement. “It’s a great privilege to show up for work every day and be surrounded by so many determined and talented players, coaches and staff members. Starting with Steinbrenner family, there is a collective commitment to excellence within this organization that is embedded in all that we do.  I’m already looking forward to reporting for spring training in Tampa and working tirelessly to return the Yankees to the postseason to compete for a World Championship.

Brian Cashman added: "Aaron is a steadying presence in our clubhouse and possesses a profound ability to connect with and foster relationships with his players. Consistently exhibiting these skills in such a demanding and pressurized market is what makes him one of the game’s finest managers. Our work is clearly not done, but as we pursue the ultimate prize in 2025, I am excited to have Aaron back to lead our team."

There was speculation the Yankees could rip up the club option and hand Boone a multi-year extension after the World Series berth, but that’s not how this team operates. The Yankees let contracts expire before discussing an extension – Cashman has held himself to that standard as well – and they’re doing the same with Boone in 2025. The managerial lame duck year is nothing new. This is what the Yankees do.

Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner love Boone – I assume the front office loves him in part because he does what they ask with little resistance – and never did want to replace him, though I suspect Boone would’ve been in trouble had the Yankees missed the postseason or exited early. Eventually he would have been scapegoated, that’s the way these things go, but they went to the World Series, so that’s that.

I am not Boone’s biggest fan, I think he’s unremarkable in terms of on-field strategy and will occasionally do things that are egregious, like asking Nestor Cortes to face three Hall of Famers with a World Series game on the line when he hasn’t pitched in 37 days. We’ve seen Boone get outfoxed a number of times over the years, often by the same managers (Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, etc.). It’s tiresome and irritating.

Also, good gravy, this team is so sloppy and fundamentally unsound. What we saw in the postseason was nothing we haven’t seen before. It’s gone on for years. Different players, same undisciplined Yankees. At some point that reflects poorly on the manager and his coaches, and after seven years, I think we’ve reached that point. This team does not prioritize clean baseball. The front office apparently is okay with it.

At the same time, Boone is great with the media, which is not an insignificant part of the job, and he seems to have control over the clubhouse. The Yankees are more or less distraction free, right? Remember how quickly the Marcus Stroman/Gleyber Torres thing blew over? Boone has a calming Joe Torre-esque quality to him. You can never tell if the Yankees have won 10 straight or lost 10 straight based on his demeanor.

On the list of problems with the Yankees, Boone is not number one, and I’m not even sure he’s top 10, let alone top five. I’m also not sure he’s the manager who’s going to get the Yankees over the top. He seems like the quintessential “not bad enough to fire but not good enough to win you anything” manager, which isn't great. Those guys can leave you spinning your wheels.

The Yankees have, remarkably, had only three managers in the last 30 years, including 2025. The Yankees used to be a laughingstock because they cycled through managers so often. Three managers in 30 years! This same team had three managers in 1982. Stability is a good thing and not many organizations have it, but maybe the Yankees have overcorrected a bit too much following George Steinbrenner’s heyday? 

Boone was the first manager in Yankees history to come back for a sixth year after failing to win a World Series in his first five years. He then came back for a seventh year, and now an eighth. Granted, that’s an impossible standard given the franchise’s success during the reserve clause years, but Boone is already seventh in team history in games managed. The most games managed for the Yankees without a ring:

1. Aaron Boone: 1,032
2. Buck Showalter: 582
3. Billy Donovan: 465 (player/manager)
4. Lou Piniella: 417
5. Yogi Berra: 342

At some point that’s your legacy, right? Well, whatever. Boone was always coming back once the Yankees won the pennant. When you lose the World Series, there’s only one way to have a better season the next year, and that next year aligns perfectly with Boone’s contract ending. I have no idea what’s coming as far as the manager’s job goes. I just know it’ll be Boone in 2025. It was made official late last week. 

2. Latest hot stove news and rumors. It has been 13 days since the Yankees forgot how to play baseball for an inning and lost the World Series, and we’re still waiting for the hot stove to heat up. Other than the Angels trading for Jorge Soler and signing Kyle Hendricks for some reason, things have been quiet. It’ll pick up soon enough. Here are the latest hot stove nuggets. 

Obsessive Soto Watch

Technically, Juan Soto has not been a Yankee for 13 days, and I hate it. The last time I was this anxious about a free agent was CC Sabathia. I wasn’t nearly this antsy about Aaron Judge two years ago because I didn’t think he wanted to leave and I didn’t think the Yankees would let him leave. I badly wanted the Yankees to sign Gerrit Cole, but I want Soto more. I will be on edge until this wraps up.

Here is the latest on Soto as the Scott Boras dog and pony show gets underway:

• Soto either has begun or will soon begin meeting with teams at Boras’ offices in Southern California. Steve Cohen and the Mets will have their meeting sometime this week, per Mike Puma.

• Hal Steinbrenner and the rest of the brain trust will meet with Boras and Soto in a week and a half, per Jon Heyman. The Yankees don’t need an introductory meeting with Soto. They already know each other. I wonder if they’ll get right down to brass tacks and start talking money?

• The Cubs have already ruled out a Soto pursuit given ownership’s budget constraints, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subs. req’d). We don’t have to worry about them, at least.

The owner is always directly involved with free agents of this caliber, so there is nothing especially notable about Cohen and Steinbrenner attending the meetings. Hal was part of the meeting with Cole back in the day, and with Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year. This is just the way the game is played. Hal already met with Soto once in July. Now he’ll meet with him again. This was always going to happen.

I expect the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, and Red Sox to meet with Soto at some point, probably a few other teams too, and where things go from there, I do not know. Boras/Soto could whittle down their list and hold a second meeting or visit each team, or they could jump right into contract talks. Boras floods the media with information. Whatever the next step is, we’ll hear plenty about it. For now, the face-to-face meetings are getting underway. 

"I want him in pinstripes going forward,” Aaron Boone said Monday, adding he will be part of the contingent that meets with Soto and Boras in the coming days. “I'm confident that the Steinbrenner family and front office are going to do everything possible to put us in a position to have another strong team that has a chance to compete for a championship."

Sasaki will be posted

It is official. The Chiba Lotte Marines will post star right-hander Roki Sasaki for MLB teams this offseason. They made the announcement Saturday. “From the time he initially joined the team, we had heard from him that his dream is to play in America. Taking the last five years into consideration, we have decided to respect his wishes,” the Marines said in a statement.

“From the beginning, the team has listened to my future desires to pitch in MLB and I am incredibly grateful that they are allowing me to be posted at this time,” Sasaki said in a statement. “I will do my best to climb up from a minor league contract and become the best player in the world so I have no regrets about my one and only baseball career and can live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me.”

If you’re reading this, you know Sasaki is only 23, and thus will be subject to the international bonus pools. He can only sign a minor league contract and the posting fee owed to the Marines will be 25% of his bonus. In August, Eric Longenhagen reported the Yankees had $1.5M in international bonus pool money to spend, though they still had room to acquire another $1.49M or so. They can max out at roughly $3M.

What we don’t know is when exactly Sasaki will be posted. The 2024 international signing period closes on Dec. 15th and the 2025 signing period opens on Jan. 15, and the 31 days between the 2024 and 2025 signing periods are a “quiet period.” No talks or signings are allowed during that time. Once posted, Sasaki will have 45 days to negotiate and sign with an MLB team. The Marines have two options:

• Post Sasaki right now, which gives him until Dec. 15th to sign. That gives him 30-something days to sign before the 2024 signing period closes, not the full 45 days.

• Wait to post him so that his 45-day period extends beyond Jan. 15th and into the 2025 signing period. The bonus pools would reset and give teams more money.

Francys Romero says the belief is the Marines will wait until the 2025 signing period opens to post Sasaki, which makes sense. Teams will have more money to spend then, and the more money Sasaki gets, the more money the Marines get. They’re taking a beating here. The Orix Buffaloes got over $50M for posting Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Mariners might – might – get $2M for Sasaki, and could wind up with only six figures.

Sasaki threw 111 innings with a 2.35 ERA and a 28.7 K% in 2024. That’s in a league with a 19.0 K%, and it was the worst season of Sasaki’s career. He had some arm trouble (and an oblique strain) at midseason and Lance Brozdowski (video link) notes Sasaki now sits closer to 97 mph than 99 mph. His fastball shape isn’t great and the pitch gets hit harder than you’d think. The splitter and slider are elite though. (Daniel Brim did a very deep dive into Sasaki, if you're interested.)

The NPB Pitch Profiler puts a 120 Stuff+ on Sasaki’s heater and a 146 Stuff+ on both the splitter and slider, though that is relative to pitchers in Japan, not MLB pitchers. The comp I’ve gotten is Hunter Greene. Big fastball that can get hit and two wipeout secondaries. There is some thought that Sasaki is not MLB ready (especially given his low innings totals) and would benefit from some time in the minors.

“Now that Yamamoto’s gone, he’s the best pitcher in Japan,” former big leaguer Gregory Polanco, Sasaki’s teammate with the Marines the last three years, told Chelsea Janes earlier this year. “He throws super hard. He’s tall. The split is nasty. Breaking ball. Everything. I tell him, he’s really young, he needs more experience. I’m like, ‘Hey, stay a little longer.’ He’s like, ‘No, I want to go!’”

The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to sign Sasaki. There are a lot of folks trying to downplay that right now for some reason, but they’re the favorites. That was true even before they landed Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees have scouted Sasaki and I’m certain they will offer him every last dollar and go all-out on the sell job, but for all we know his mind may already be made up. We’ll find out soon enough. Sasaki is coming stateside though. It’s official.

“Hopefully we're in the mix,” Boone said about Sasaki on Monday. “It's a unique and special talent. A guy with top-of-the-rotation qualities.”

Sugano wants to come to MLB (again)

Now for a Japanese pitcher the Yankees might actually have a chance to sign. Tomoyuki Sugano, one of the greatest pitchers in NPB history, will again attempt to come to MLB this offseason, reports Jeff Passan. Sugano has enough NPB service time to be a true free agent. He doesn’t have to be posted. There’s no 45-day window or a posting fee or anything like that. He’s a regular old free agent.

Now 35, Sugano was posted during the 2020-21 offseason, though he was unable to reach a deal during the 45-day posting window, so he returned to Japan. Sugano threw 156.2 innings with a 1.67 ERA and a 18.3 K% in 2024. His career numbers are absurd (2.45 ERA in almost 2,000 innings) and he’s won two Eiji Sawamura Awards (Cy Young equivalent), two MVPs, plus a host of other accolades.

Sugano’s spent his entire career with the Yomiuri Giants, Hideki Matsui’s former team. They’re considered the Yankees of Japan given their rich history and popularity, so he’s used to playing in the spotlight. Here’s David Adler with a scouting report (here’s video):

Sugano has exceptional command and poise on the mound. His ability to locate his pitches makes his stuff play up … Sugano has a diverse pitch arsenal. His velocity sits in the lower 90s at this stage of his career, but he throws six different pitch types -- a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball and splitter. Sugano's biggest swing-and-miss pitch is his splitter, the signature offering of many great Japanese aces. He also relies on his slider and cutter, using the slider heavily against left-handed hitters and the cutter against right-handed hitters.

The NPB Pitch Profiler gives Sugano an 80 Stuff+ for his fastball, which is bad, though all his secondary pitches clock in at 110 Stuff+ or better. Seems like he’s similar to 2019-20 Masahiro Tanaka, when his fastball was a show-me pitch and he leaned on his splitter and slider to get outs. Sugano does have more weapons than Tanaka, which could help, and his command and poise are considered pluses.

(I’ve seen Hiroki Kuroda mentioned as a comp for Sugano and I’m not sure I buy it. Kuroda, even when he was with the Yankees from ages 37-39, sat 92-94 mph with his fastball and touched 96 mph. Sugano is a tick or two south of that. He is similar to Kuroda as a no nonsense, won’t be overwhelmed veteran though.)

Given his age, Sugano’s looking at a one-year contract. He’s coming over for the competition at this point. He has been the highest paid player in NPB for several years, and granted, NPB money is not MLB money, but Sugano’s salary has reportedly been in the $8M to $10M range for a while now. He’s made a fortune and it doesn’t appear he’s coming over to get a big contract. He’s coming over to challenge himself.

I am intrigued by Sugano as a No. 5 depth starter and nothing more. I would not expect him to come in and pitch at the level he’s pitched at in NPB, or anywhere close to that. Can he give you, say, 150 average-ish innings? That would be super valuable. The Yankees are a high profile team with a history of signing star Japanese players. They don’t have Ohtani or Yamamoto, but Matsui and Tanaka thrived here.

MLBTR pegs Sugano for a one-year, $12M contract, and that’s a bit richer than I anticipated. That puts him in the Kyle Gibson/Justin Verlander range based on their predictions. No long-term commitment, no posting fee, but also the downside of a just turned 35-year-old with a ton of innings on his arm. I dunno. I don’t consider Sugano a must-sign or anything, but I am intrigued. Hmmm.

(A few other Japanese pitchers are expected to be posted this offseason, including Chunichi Dragons lefty Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Hanshin Tigers righty Koyo Aoyagi. Neither is as highly regarded as Sasaki or Sugano. Jason Coskrey says Aoyagi is open to a minor league deal.)

Miscellany

The Yankees have interest in free agent reliever Carlos Estévez, per Jon Morosi. They did not show much interest in him at the trade deadline, likely because the asking price was high (the Phillies met it). Now you only have to pay money to get him. Estévez, 32 next month, had a 2.45 ERA (3.24 FIP) with 23.6 K% and 5.7 BB% in 55 innings for the Angels and Phillies in 2024. He is very fly ball prone (32.9 GB% in 2024) and a fly ball prone late inning reliever can be a bit scary. Inevitably a few fly balls will find the short porch. The Yankees must re-sign or replace their entire setup crew (Tim Hill, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle), so expect them to be connected to A LOT of relievers the next few weeks … And finally, Bob Nightengale says the Yankees are among the teams expected to “aggressively pursue” first baseman Christian Walker. Walker > Pete Alonso in my mind. Walker turns 34 in Spring Training and is four years older than Alonso, so there’s age-related risk, but that will be reflected in the contract, and he’s a legit 30-homer bat and maybe the best defensive first baseman in the game. Walker’s a more complete player than Alonso, and he’ll likely come on a shorter term deal too (there’s some thought Alonso is a candidate to get Cody Bellingered into a one-year deal with player options).  Is it Soto and Walker? Or is Walker only part of the plan if the Yankees can’t retain Soto? I do not know.

3. Did we see a new Volpe in the postseason? Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton carried the Yankees in the postseason, and Gleyber Torres was really good too. Their fourth best player in October was probably Anthony Volpe? Aaron Judge struggled, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells didn’t contribute much, and the Yankees got a few scattered singles from first base. Yeah, Volpe was their fourth best player in October. 

In 14 postseason games Volpe slashed .286/.407/.408 (136 wRC+) with one home run (the World Series Game 4 grand slam) and nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (13). Volpe walked 10 times in the 14 postseason games after walking 10 times in the final 42 regular season games. He pulled six balls in the air in the postseason, surpassing his total in May (5) and equaling his total in June and July (six each).

Beyond the surface numbers, Volpe was a different hitter in October. He swung the bat faster and made more hard contact, and he did that while reducing his swings and misses and his chases. Here are his month-by-month numbers:

Volpe posted his lowest chase rate of the season in October (by a lot) and essentially tied his lowest swinging strike rate. He also posted his best average exit velocity, his best hard-hit rate, his fastest average bat speed, and his highest fast swing rate (i.e. 75+ mph bat speed). Volpe swung harder and made harder contact, and also somehow improved his plate discipline and contact skills. Huh.

That 75 mph bat speed threshold is a big one too. The best results come at 75 mph and above:

• Under 75 mph bat speed: .230 AVG and .338 SLG (.251 xwOBA)

• 75+ mph bat speed: .317 AVG and 643 SLG (.409 xwOBA)

We’re still learning about bat speed and a slower bat is not automatically a bad thing, though it does limit power output. That’s the one known here. The faster the bat, the higher the slug. Volpe’s fast swing rate in the postseason was still below the league average, though it was more than three times his best month during the regular season. Three times as many 75+ mph swings! That’s an enormous gain.

Unfortunately, the Yankees have Volpe media trained to the nth degree, so he didn’t say anything about his approach at the plate, why he’s swinging harder, anything like that during the postseason. “I want to hit the ball hard. I want to barrel the ball up. So when that's happening, I feel like I'm in a good spot,” Volpe said before the ALCS. That’s about all you’re going to get out of the kid. 

“I watch him every day from the side, and it was noticeable to me in the week off or the days off leading up to the Kansas City series,” Aaron Boone said during the ALCS. “It was like, ‘There you go, there it is.’ I think he's mechanically getting into a better position to get a good swing off. For me, he's just behind the ball. His load’s better.”

I noted Volpe’s bat speed was up in early August – fast swing rate is the key here, not necessarily average bat speed – after he hit five homers in his first 15 games out of the All-Star break. It stayed up the rest of the season even though Volpe’s production dipped. Remember, he hit .176/.220/.212 (22 wRC+) in August. Then he was legitimately excellent in October. Quality at-bats, good results, the works.

We’ve seen Volpe go on 14-game hot streaks the last two years, and sometimes there was even an underlying change to his process too. He was a pull-and-lift guy in 2023. When he came out of the gates on fire in 2024, he was shooting everything to right field. Volpe gets hot, we investigate, there are tangible reasons to believe it is For Real, then he cools down and it doesn’t last. Two years of this now.

Next season feels like a big year for Volpe. He can obviously play defense at the Major League level. He’s not the most graceful shortstop, but he’s an asset there. We’ve seen several different versions of Volpe as a hitter and no one seems to know what’s best for him. The pull-and-lift guy had a .283 OBP and an 82 wRC+ in 2023. The contact/singles guy had a .293 OBP and a 86 wRC+ in 2024. Neither’s okay, right?

Volpe upping his fast swing rate that much while also reducing his chases and swings and misses is really impressive, even in a 14-game sample. He did that when the lights were brightest in October, and against the best pitchers the other team could run out there. To answer the title, yes, we did see a new Volpe in the postseason. Will that guy stick around next year? I hope so, but the burden is on Volpe to prove this is the new him now. We’ve had a few false starts the last two years, if you know what I mean.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The 2024 awards finalists were announced Monday night and surprise, Aaron Judge is an MVP finalist. He’s almost certainly going to win. The Yankees have four awards finalists:

• MVP: Judge and Juan Soto (Bobby Witt Jr. is the other)

• Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil and Austin Wells (Colton Cowser is the other)

I assume Cowser will win Rookie of the Year, though maybe Gil or Wells will surprise us. The Yankees will get a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick if Wells wins, but not Gil because he didn’t meet the top 100 prospect list criteria before the season. No Yankees among the Cy Young finalists and Aaron Boone isn’t a Manager of the Year finalist. Here are all the awards finalists … And finally, Boone confirmed Monday there will be at least one change to the coaching staff without revealing who it will be. Soon thereafter Andy Martino reported assistant pitching coach Desi Druschel is joining the Mets, so I guess that's it. Luis Rojas was shockingly bad at third base this year – he wasn’t this bad last year, was he? – bad enough to warrant a change. Seems like he's staying though. Sigh. (I can’t imagine Matt Blake or Mike Harkey are going anywhere, ditto James Rowson, who is Judge’s guy.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)