November 8th, 2024: Soto, Offseason, Arbitration Projections, Mailbag

Two pieces of business. First, I’m planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 29th. That is three weeks from today and it is the Friday after Thanksgiving. I will happily cover any breaking news that comes down (Juan Soto re-signing? pretty please?), otherwise I’m going to take it easy during the holiday weekend. And second, I was told Thursday that I’ve been approved as a Hall of Fame voter. Not gonna lie, I got a little emotional when I found out. I started a blog with some pals almost 18 years ago, and now I have a Hall of Fame vote. Crazy shit, man. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Early offseason thoughts. The GM Meetings were held in noted baseball town San Antonio earlier this week and the Yankees didn’t make any moves, which is not unusual. There has been an uptick in hot stove activity at the GM Meetings in recent years, though it’s rumors more than transactions, and it still doesn’t come close to the Winter Meetings. Here’s the latest on the Yankees:

• They’ve been in contact with Scott Boras about Juan Soto and all his other clients, including Pete Alonso, Brian Cashman confirmed.

• Cashman all but announced Aaron Boone will be back. Can’t say that’s surprising after the Yankees won the pennant. (If they were going to make a change, it would've happened already.)

• The Yankees have touched base with Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Sean Manaea, and Blake Snell, per Jon Heyman. It’s unclear if they’re willing to sign Soto and a top starter though.

• The Yankees have also checked in on basically every free agent reliever, per Jon Morosi. Here’s where I remind you the Yankees check in with every free agent throughout the winter.

The Yankees signing Alonso to a long-term deal after passing on all those mid-20s stars (Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, etc.) would turn me into the Joker. Alonso’s a good player, and we all know how badly the Yankees need a slugging first baseman, but settling for Alonso after losing out on Soto (and Harper and Seager) would be a major letdown. Please just re-sign Soto. Please.

"I had a chance to thank (Soto after the season) and told him we'd be in touch. And then since that time I've talked to obviously Scott as well. He'll get a feel for the dance steps that Juan Soto wants, and he'll keep us in the loop,” Cashman told Ron Blum. “… We certainly have an interest in retaining him and we'll put our best foot forward there. That will either lead to us retaining him and signing him back, or we'll be forced to go in a different direction if we can't. And if we can't, there's a lot of different players in this marketplace that can positively impact this roster in different ways. Clearly that pressure point's not on us today, but it does exist in the marketplace every winter, so those are the tough decisions you have to make."

Typical CashmanSpeak. I feel like I’ve read that same exact quote about different Boras clients every offseason for the last 20-something years. Anyway, the ball is in Soto’s court. Cashman’s entire offseason and team building strategy will change depending whether Soto stays or leaves. As it stands right now, before things really get going, I’d rank the Yankees’ offseason priorities like so:

1. Re-sign Soto
2. Get a big first base bat
3. Rebuild the bullpen
4. Find a second or third baseman (depending where Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays)
5. Dig up another outfielder (or commit to Jasson Domínguez)
6. Depth additions, etc.

No. 1 is No. 1 and No. 6 is No. 6 , and you could put Nos. 2-5 in any order and make a good argument that’s the correct order. That’s what the Yankees are facing this offseason though. Even if they bring Soto back, they still need to address the right side of the infield, figure out what they’re doing with the third outfield spot, upgrade the bullpen, and then improve on the margins. It’s a lot. It really is.

The rotation should not be ignored either. Gerrit Cole will be back, so, on paper, the Yankees have six big league starters for five rotation spots. The rotation depth chart currently looks like this:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. RHP Clarke Schmidt
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. LHP Nestor Cortes
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP JT Brubaker
8. RHP Cody Poteet
9. RHP Will Warren

Pitching-wise, losing the World Series is the worst case scenario. You didn’t win a championship but your pitchers still endured that heavy workload, and they have one fewer month to recover in the offseason. After 2009, the Yankees traded for Javy Vazquez because they were worried about their starters after the deep postseason run. Vazquez stunk but the logic was sound. They wanted to add reliable innings.

Nestor’s coming off his flexor strain. Gil set a new career high in innings (by 51!). Rodón and Schmidt have injury histories. Brubaker is coming off Tommy John surgery and Poteet missed three months with a triceps issue. Even Cole missed time. They’re pitchers, they get hurt, and the added workload/less recovery time puts them at increased risk in 2025. Maybe the offseason priority list should look like this?

1. Re-sign Soto
2. Get a big first base bat
3. Add a starter
4. Rebuild the bullpen
5. Find a second or third baseman (depending where Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays)
6. Dig up another outfielder (or commit to Jasson Domínguez)
7. Depth additions, etc.

Keep in mind that, if Soto signs elsewhere, the Yankees don’t suddenly have all that money to spend this offseason. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Yankees offer Soto 12 years and $600M ($50M a year). If he says no to that, they won’t have $600M to spend. They will have $50M per year to spend, which is a heck of a lot different. This is what $50M per year could have bought you last offseason if we cherry pick the best players with the benefit of hindsight:

• Teoscar Hernández: $23.5M

• Seth Lugo: $15M

• David Robertson: $11.5M

Soto passing on a $600M contract doesn’t mean the Yankees will turn around and give $250M to Corbin Burnes, $150M to Willy Adames, $100M to Christian Walker, $50M to Hernández, $40M to Jeff Hoffman, and $10M to Robertson. Soto passing on $600M leaves you $50M per year to play with for the next 12 years, not $600M over the next, say, seven years. Spreading Soto's money around ain't gonna land you as much as you may think.

I get the sense that everything will be on hold until Soto signs. The Yankees did this with Aaron Judge two years ago and DJ LeMahieu four years ago. They were their No. 1 offseason target and they waited until those free agencies were resolved before moving on to other things. I suspect the Yankees will do that with Soto and I don’t think they’ll be alone. Soto will require an enormous commitment and teams will want a full picture of their future finances before firming up the rest of the roster. So, we wait. 

"Due to the volume of interest and Juan's desire to hear (from interested teams), I can't put a time frame on it, but it's going to be a very thorough process for him," Boras told Jesse Rogers earlier this week. "He wants to meet people personally. He wants to talk with them. He wants to hear from them."

2. 2025 arbitration projections. Last month Matt Swartz and the MLBTR crew published their annual arbitration salary projections. As long as it’s not a weird 60-game pandemic season, their model has proven to be quite accurate over the years. At minimum, their projections give us a very good ballpark figure for payroll estimation purposes.

The Yankees have an average-sized 10-player arbitration class this offseason. Last winter they had an MLB high 17 (!) arb-eligibles. Not all 10 of those players will make it to Spring Training. Honestly, I’m not even sure half will. Some will get non-tendered or released or traded over in the coming weeks. It’s inevitable. Let’s go through the salary projections and see what’s what.

Definitely won’t get non-tendered

• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $6.9M (second time eligible)

• Clarke Schmidt: $3.5M (second time as Super Two)

A straightforward two-player group. Even with this year’s lat injury, Schmidt has been one of the Yankees’ most reliable starters the last two years, and a $3.5M salary is nothing. That’s reclamation project reliever money. Chisholm had a rough postseason, though he was quite good overall after the trade, and the Yankees need more players like him (athletic, speed, power, etc.), not fewer. These two aren’t going anywhere. Onward.

Probably won’t get non-tendered

• Nestor Cortes: $7.7M (third time)

• Jose Trevino: $3.4M (third time)

• JT Brubaker: $2.275M (third time)

• Mark Leiter Jr.: $2.1M (second time)

• Scott Effross: $900,000 (first time as Super Two)

Cortes was healthy enough to pitch in the World Series, which suggests his flexor strain will not require surgery. If he needs surgery at some point between now and the Nov. 22nd non-tender deadline, then he’s gone. The Yankees won’t pay him $7.7M to rehab during his final year of team control in 2025, and walk him right to free agency. Nate Eovaldi and Tommy Kahnle were non-tendered under similar circumstances once upon a time.

Trevino’s throwing has become a glaring issue and he’s never been much of a hitter, but he is arguably the best pitch-framer in baseball, and the pitchers love working with him. Last offseason Martín Maldonado ($4.25M), Austin Hedges ($4M), and Luke Maile ($3.5M) all signed one-year deals in the same range as Trevino’s projected salary. That is the going rate for a free agent backup catcher. (Hedges signed for $4M again earlier this week.)

The Yankees could cut ties with Trevino and plug Carlos Narváez in as the backup catcher at the league minimum next year. Narváez rated as an okay framer in Triple-A this year and he’ll be a similar bottom of the order righty bat as Trevino. Even if they go with Narváez behind Austin Wells, there will probably be a trade market for Trevino? The Yankees could probably get some team’s 15th ranked prospect for him. I don’t think they’ll non-tender him, but it’s not completely off the table.

Brubaker strained his oblique during his Tommy John surgery rehab this summer and never made it back to the big leagues. He did appear in a few Triple-A games at the very end of the season though, so he’s healthy and the elbow is okay. That projected $2.275M salary is nothing. Of course you bring him back as an added layer of pitching depth. As long as he’s healthy, and all indications are he is, Brubaker will be tendered a contract for 2025.

The Yankees should probably stop trading for Cubs relievers who are Statcast sliders over stuff at the deadline. Effross has been a dud because he's been hurt, not because he was ineffective on the few occasions he did pitch. Leiter pitched poorly this year. It was kinda funny he went from not being on the ALDS or ALCS roster to being thrown into high leverage situations pretty much right away though, no?

Effross traveled with the Yankees during the World Series in case he was needed as an injury replacement, so he’s healthy. His projected salary is not much above next year’s $760,000 league minimum. Effross has minor league options left too, so the Yankees can stash in Triple-A. I don’t think the Yankees will cut Leiter loose. He’s cheap enough and they trusted him in big spots in October. If he continues to stink and you have to DFA him later, so be. They’ll give him a chance to prove himself first, I bet. Effross and Leiter will return and try to make good on their trades.

Non-tender candidates

• Trent Grisham: $5.7M (third time)

• Tim Mayza: $4M (fourth time as Super Two)

• Jon Berti: $3.8M (fourth time as Super Two)

Paul DeJong, Garrett Hampson, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, and Joey Wendle all signed for $2M or less last offseason. I just don’t see how you keep Berti at that salary. I mean, yes, these are the Yankees and they can afford to overpay a bench player, but Berti turns 35 in a few weeks, he’s a speed guy who was limited to 25 games by three separate lower body injuries, and he’s approached league average offense once in the last four years. I would be surprised if the Yankees keep him at that salary.

If the Yankees are going to overpay a bench guy, Grisham’s the guy to do it with, not Berti. Grisham is a legit center fielder at a time when the center field depth chart is:

1. Soon-to-be 33-year-old Aaron Judge
2. The Defensive Misadventures of Jasson Domínguez
3. Everson Pereira, I guess
4. Duke Ellis (not a real person)

The Yankees could always non-tender Grisham and sign a different backup center fielder, but Harrison Bader (hurt all the time) and Kevin Kiermaier (played 2024 at age 34) both got $10M+ last offseason. This offseason’s top free agent center fielders are Bader and, uh, Manny Margot and Michael A. Taylor? Those last two were barely replacement level in 2024. Maybe the Yankees swing a trade for Cedric Mullins or Leody Taveras?

Grisham is a rough watch because he’s so passive, he strikes out a lot and hits under .200, and plays the game very casually, but he is an elite defensive center fielder and he’ll put a mistake in the seats. The safe play is paying Grisham the projected $5.7M and spending the offseason knowing you have a high level center fielder in the organization. Replacing him will be tougher than I think a lot of people realize. I hope Grisham stays. I’m not certain he will though. He is a non-tender candidate, for sure.

Mayza turns 33 in a few weeks and $4M is about right for a veteran lefty. Andrew Chafin, Jake Diekman, and Will Smith all signed for similar amounts last offseason. So maybe he stays. Then again, $4M would make Mayza the highest paid reliever in the bullpen, pending whatever else the Yankees do this offseason. I’m not sure what to think here. I could see Mayza coming back or the Yankees saying thanks for those 18 good yet low leverage innings this year, and moving on. Hmmm.

2025 payroll estimate

The arbitration projections allow us to better estimate the 2025 payroll. I will assume the Yankees non-tender Berti and Mayza, and keep everyone else. Here’s the luxury tax payroll estimate:

• Guaranteed contracts (7 players): $161M

• Arb-eligibles (8 players): $32.475M

• Rest of 26-man roster: $8.6M (estimated) (11 players at league minimum-ish)

• 40-man players in minors: $3M (estimated)

• Dead money: $10M (Aaron Hicks)

• Miscellany: $19.2M (pre-arb bonus pool, benefits package, etc.)

That adds up to $234.275M. Let's call it $235M for simplicity's sake. The luxury tax threshold is $241M in 2025. Realistically, there’s no way to improve the team and stay under $241M, let alone re-sign Soto. Not unless the Yankees unload DJ LeMahieu and Marcus Stroman, and cheap out on the rest of the roster. Even then it might not be possible.

That $235M roster looks like this with an entire offseason still to come (yellow means arb-eligible, green means guaranteed contract, rest are pre-arb):

Hal Steinbrenner has indicated a payroll reduction is coming and a) we should take him seriously, and b) are you kidding me? The Yankees added the $25M a year Starr Insurance patch last year. They came into the Strauss ad campaign money this postseason. Reaching the World Series comes a massive windfall, even if you lose. Why is payroll coming down? It should go up. A payroll reduction for any reason next year would be shameful. But I digress.

Cot’s estimates the 2024 luxury tax payroll at $314.9M. The fourth penalty tier next season (i.e. the “Steve Cohen tax”) is $301M. Going from $314.9M to $301M would save the Yankees about $40M between salary and luxury tax on top of all the additional revenue that is not being put back into the roster. The Yankees are at $235M right now. Even if they spend up to $301M, most of it would go to Soto, I hope. That would leave the Yankees with $20M to $30M to improve the rest of the roster, and in the year 2025, that’s not a ton.

3. Offseason Plan update. I started chipping away earlier this week and, really, the writing is the easy part. The hard part is investigating players and figuring out who I want, who to avoid, etc. I start the Offseason Plan every year by my ideal roster in a payroll spreadsheet, and it came in about $30M above my assumed payroll limit. That happens every year. From there I figure out who to drop, who to replace, what Plan Bs and Cs make the most sense, etc.

My goal is getting the Offseason Plan published before Thanksgiving. Ideally the week before Thanksgiving, but if it’s the week of Thanksgiving, then that’s what it is. I make zero promises about a publication date, it will be done when it's done, and I will effort to get it done as soon as possible. I’ll keep you updated. For now, I got the thing started. I will keep you updated on my progress.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chase asks: How bad exactly would the 2024 Yankees have been without Soto? The theme next year will be "they made the World Series last year" regardless if Soto and GT are back or not, but it is a very different team without them.

It’s impossible to say without knowing how the Yankees would have plugged the outfield hole. Do they sign Cody Bellinger or Teoscar Hernández? Trade for Tyler O’Neill? Go cheap with Everson Pereira? No matter what, it’s a downgrade. The only question is how big a downgrade. The Yankees won the AL East by three games and had a nine-game lead on a postseason berth. I’m comfortable assuming the Yankees don’t win the AL East without Soto but do sneak into the postseason as a Wild Card team. Playing in the Wild Card Series changes everything. It’s an extra round, Gerrit Cole would have to start Games 2 and 5 of the ALDS rather than Games 1 and 4 if they advance, etc. Plus you don’t have Soto’s immense production in October (.327/.469/.633 and 203 wRC+). My guess is the Yankees without Soto are eliminated no later than the ALDS. I don’t think they go any deeper than that even with Bellinger or Hernández or whoever. Soto is that good and that much of a game changer.

Bert asks: Do you think the Yankees would be fine with letting Soto go for "roster considerations". Judge probably shouldn't play CF again (1B? Haven't heard any rumblings myself) - but they'd be fine sticking him in RF and having Trent/Jasson in CF. Let's not pretend they care who's playing LF next season they haven't for years. 

No. I don’t think the Yankees would let Juan Soto leave just because the roster puzzle pieces would fit better with Aaron Judge in right field. Soto’s starting to feel like a once in a lifetime hitter, not just a once in a generation hitter. If you have a chance to get that guy through his prime and the rest of his career, you do it, and figure out how to make the roster work around him. The Yankees aren’t stupid. They know their roster is a bunch of round pegs and square holes, but having Juan Soto is better than not having Juan Soto, and they’ll do whatever they need to do to make things work if they bring him back. I don’t think roster considerations will factor into the decision to re-sign him at all. For the Yankees, the decision will be entirely about money, not roster fit, and it’s a Hal Steinbrenner call, not a Brian Cashman call. The owner has the final say on a contract of this magnitude, not the GM.

Dan asks: Does it seem to you like the rumors of the Dodgers moving Betts to the infield might just be gamesmanship to drive up the price of Juan Soto? Mookie is 32 and moving a right fielder back to second at that age is dicey.  

It could be, sure. It is a bit of a weird decision otherwise. The Dodgers picked up their $5M option for Miguel Rojas earlier this week and they still have Gavin Lux too. I guess they’re planning to platoon Lux and Rojas at second and short? Like this:

• vs. RHP: LHB Lux at 2B and Mookie at SS

• vs. LHP: Mookie at 2B and RHB Rojas at SS

Betts started 2024 at short and survived on athleticism and instincts. He didn't look all that comfortable though. Similar to Jazz Chisholm Jr. at third, Betts had trouble with timing and just knowing where to go on cutoff plays, etc. Eventually the Dodgers realized they’re better off with Rojas at short, and moved Mookie back to right field when he returned from the injured list in August.

Committing to putting Betts back on the infield is a bit curious because, again, they have Lux and Rojas for the middle infield, and their outfield is thin. Assuming Tommy Edman moves to center field full-time (it’s his best position), that leaves the corners to Andy Pages, James Outman, and Chris Taylor now that the Hernándezes (Enrique and Teoscar) are free agents. Top prospect Dalton Rushing is a catcher, though he began working out in left field late last year, so maybe he’s in the mix too.

Clearly, the Dodgers need another outfielder no matter where Betts plays. Why wouldn’t they show interest in Juan Soto? Didn’t Shohei Ohtani take those massive deferrals specifically to give the team the flexibility to build the best possible roster? You thank him and reward him for that by signing someone like Soto. The Dodgers got great work from Teoscar this year, but he’s not Soto, and they’re detached enough emotionally to say thanks Teo, but we're moving on to someone better.

I’m not sure the Betts thing is related to Soto because the Dodgers would have room for Soto even if they keep Mookie in the outfield. They’re going to make a run at Soto. The Dodgers are in on every prime-aged free agent. Will they be in on him at the same level as the Mets and Yankees? I dunno. Either way, I don’t quite understand the rush to put Mookie back on the infield. 

Howie asks: My trade proposal sucks, but would a Montgomery-for-DJLM plus a prospect deal make any sense? Maybe a better offseason and familiar environs can help Monty get back on track.

Anonymous asks: With the news of Jordan Montgomery picking up his player option, I wonder if a Stroman for Montgomery trade would make sense? Assume Diamondbacks would have to pick up some money as well. 

Going to lump these two together. The D’Backs are obviously going to trade Montgomery. Last month owner Ken Kendrick said signing Montgomery was a “horrible decision” and “our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Feels like there’s no coming back from that*. Montgomery picked up his $22.5M player option earlier this week because what was he supposed to do coming off a 6.23 ERA (4.48 FIP) and a demotion to the bullpen? He’s not getting that on the open market.

* D’Backs GM Mike Hazen told David Brandt this week that he met with Montgomery to smooth things over. He had to do that and he had to say so publicly just to give himself some semblance of leverage.

The D’Backs will have to eat money and/or take a bad contract back to get a trade done. They’re not going to be able to unload the full $22.5M. Not unless they attach a prospect(s). Marcus Stroman at $18.5M for Montgomery at $22.5M maybe works for Arizona, though I suspect they’ll be able to unload a larger chunk of his salary on another team. I bet more than a few teams would be happy to roll the dice on Montgomery at, say, $10M or $12M in 2025. Saving only $4M probably isn’t enough for the D’Backs.

Unless the prospect sweeter is really good, the DJ LeMahieu thing isn’t gonna work because a) he has 5-and-10 rights and full no-trade protection, and has given no indication he wants to leave, and b) he’s owed $30M over the next two years. I guess the Yankees could pay a chunk of that down and spread the $22.5M the D'Backs owe Montgomery across two years, like so:

2025 D’Backs: $11.25M for LeMahieu
2026 D’Backs: $11.25M for LeMahieu

2025 Yankees: $22.5M for Montgomery + $3.75M for LeMahieu
2026 Yankees: $3.75M for LeMahieu

The D’Backs spread Montgomery’s $22.5M out across two years and instead pay it to LeMahieu, who may no longer be a viable big leaguer. The Yankees would shift a bunch of money from 2026 to 2025, get the pain over with sooner, and swap LeMahieu for a potentially more useful piece in Montgomery. That could work for the Yankees, sure. Arizona wouldn’t save any money in the grand scheme of things though, and I’m not sure what they’d do with LeMahieu anyway. The prospect would have to be good.

I think a more sensible trade for Arizona would be Nestor Cortes for Montgomery. Cortes is projected to make $7.7M in 2025, so that’s $14.8M in savings for the D’Backs. They get a useful piece, and even if Nestor’s elbow gives out next year, they at least save cash. The Yankees get a pitcher who is a better bet to throw 175 innings in 2025. I guess? They’re probably best off giving the D’Backs a prospect or two and absorbing $12M or so in salary. They Yankees don't have a bad contract to send back that hits the sweet spot between "save the D'Backs significant money" and "isn't useless on the field."

Sandeep asks: Given that guys like Pivetta and Nick Martinez are getting QOs and Frankie Montas turned down $20M from the brewers, is it worth trying to trade Rodon? He’s owed $110M from ages 32-35, he doesn’t feel as reliable as his numbers this season suggest, other than one start against Cleveland he was awful in the postseason and frankly he seems like kind of a jerk/head case.  Add in a long injury history (including the first season of this deal) and it seems like a trade might be the best way to take a mulligan on his deal and open up some salary space. Yes you have to replace him, but Gil and Schmidt showed as much if not more upside than him this past season.

There are indications the price of starting pitching will be high this offseason. Martinez had a great year with the Reds, but it was spread across 16 starts and 26 relief appearances. That's apparently enough to get the qualifying offer now. Did you know Nick Pivetta turns 32 in February? I don’t know how old I thought he was, but younger than that. He just wrapped up his third or fourth straight season as a breakout candidate. Luis Severino got a qualifying offer after his first healthy season since 2018, Michael Wacha leveraged his opt out in a three-year, $51M extension, etc. Starting pitching will be pricey. It always is, and the price is going up given the state of pitching.

Assuming the Yankees can convince Carlos Rodón to waive his no-trade clause, yeah, it would be worth moving him. He has four years at $27M a pop remaining and those figure to be decline years given his age, and if you can avoid them, go for it. The Yankees would have to replace Rodón’s innings and that may not be so easy. There’s probably a way to do it where you don’t have to commit $27M to the pitcher’s age 35 season in 2028 though. Easier said than done, but it’s doable. There are always value pitchers available.

I don’t anticipate the Yankees moving Rodón or even trying to move him, or there being much interest if they do try to move him even with starting pitching prices soaring. Generally speaking through, if you can avoid the back-end of a big money long-term contract, especially for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history, you should do it. There’s no harm in gauging interest in Rodón. You never know when some team will surprise you with an offer, and when Rodón will be open to a change of scenery.

Brian asks: Looking at the MLB free agent 2B rankings, it is pathetic. Even with a mostly down year Gleyber looks head and shoulders above the field. Are the Yankees really going to be even worse at 2B than 2024 and just let Torres walk? Are there any realistic trade options?

Brian Cashman named Caleb Durbin as a second base candidate earlier this week in a “he’s an option” way more than a “he’s our guy way.” If nothing else, that tells us Durbin will be added to the 40-man roster at the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline in two weeks (not that that’s a surprise). Maybe Durbin surprises us and performs, but his Triple-A contact quality suggests he’s not an everyday player, and I can’t say I’m eager to hand him the reins as Plan A at second base.

Jonathan India is an obvious trade candidate now that Matt McLain is healthy and the Reds again have more infielders than infield spots (in theory). India is fine. An average-ish bat and a below average defender and runner, not unlike 2024 Gleyber Torres. The difference is that was a down year for Torres and is what India has been since his Rookie of the Year win in 2021. The Rays picked up Brandon Lowe’s $10.5M club option and I assume they’ll trade him because they trade their most expensive players every winter. Nico Hoerner’s worth a conversation. Maybe a buy-low guy like Edouard Julien or Nolan Gorman?

The Yankees could slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second. That would be a waste of his arm, I think, but it might be easier to drum up a new third baseman than a new second baseman. The Cardinals figure to try to unload decline phase Nolan Arenado, which maybe makes sense depending how much money they eat. Do the Yankees roll the dice on Brett Baty? He might be too far gone at this point. Slick-fielding personal fave Jared Triolo could be an under the radar option if you think he can hit (he didn’t in 2024). And, of course, Alex Bregman’s a free agent.

The Yankees got a .257/.330/.377 (103 wRC+) line and +2.0 WAR from second base in 2024 (MLB averages were a 93 wRC+ and +1.9 WAR at second), and obviously that’s almost all Gleyber. He started 152 of 162 games at second. Right now, on Nov. 8th, I’ll take the under on both a 103 wRC+ and +2.0 WAR at second base in 2025. The Yankees seem determined to save money somewhere, and second base and the bullpen are places to do it. I’m worried they’re going to zag too far in the good glove/live with the bat direction after Torres.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)