November 1st, 2024: World Series, Soto, Rizzo, 2025 Draft, Mailbag

Going to use the intro as a state of RAB update. The Patreon isn’t going anywhere or anything like that. It’ll be business as usual moving forward. I’m shifting back to the Tuesday/Friday schedule with extra posts as necessary, though I need a break, so there may not be much meat on the bone Tuesday. I’ll sit down Monday and get the ball rolling on the Offseason Plan. I can’t give you an ETA right now. It’ll be weeks, not days. I know that much. I’ll keep you all updated as I go. Thank you for another year of reading and your support. Here now is the first post of the offseason.

1. Wrapping up the World Series. I saw some folks say Game 5 was the worst loss in Yankees’ history and come on, it’s not even in the conversation. 2001 happened. 1995 happened. 1960 happened. Game 5 was not the worst loss in Yankees’ history. The most embarrassing loss in Yankees’ history? That I can get behind. Five unearned runs to blow a 5-0 lead with your season on the line*? That’ll live in infamy.

“We didn't take care of the ball well enough in that inning,” Aaron Boone said, stating the obvious. “Against a great team like that, they took advantage.”

* Five runs is the largest comeback ever in a World Series clincher. History with an exclamation point.

Anthony Volpe’s misplay at least had some degree of difficulty. He had to range a ways to his right and would have had to make an off-balance throw to first. I thought going to third was the right move. Volpe just made a poor throw. It was a tough play that was not made. The other two misplays – Aaron Judge dropping the fly ball and the non-out at first base – were routine plays that must be completed, but weren’t. Make any one of those three plays and the Yankees probably are probably in Los Angeles waiting for Game 6.

You hear all the time that balls hit right at you are the most difficult for outfielders, but the ball clanked off Judge’s glove. He had it, then he didn’t. Covering first base is literally Day 1 of Spring Training stuff. Report to camp, take your physical, play catch, go do some PFP. That’s Day 1 every February. Gerrit Cole didn’t cover, Anthony Rizzo didn’t charge the ball either, and that was that. Three free outs that inning.

And the thing is, Mookie Betts isn’t even fast anymore. Set the minimum to 100 opportunities and he ranked 179th among 290 players in home-to-first time in 2024. He was in the 31st percentile in sprint speed. Either cover first base or charge the ball more aggressively, and the inning is over, and the 5-0 lead is intact. Statistically, the World Series was close …

… and the difference was the Yankees not being good at basic baseball plays. They are so careless. They gave the Dodgers third base three times in Game 1. They ran into an out at home (with Giancarlo Stanton!) in Game 3. The fifth inning in Game 5. The 2024 Yankees were maybe the sloppiest, most fundamentally unsound good team I’ve ever seen. They lost games on the margins constantly.

The Yankees badly need a manager and a coaching staff that will impose some discipline and baseball sense. I don’t mean they need a hard-ass. No one responds well to an angry boss. You can drill down on those things in a way that doesn’t involve the football coach mentality. Buck Showalter was very good at that. He was pretty low-key, but his teams were buttoned-up. They knew how to play the game.

Boone is not that manager. We have seven years of evidence telling us he is not that manager. He is not the problem with the Yankees, but he is a problem, and I have no idea how anyone could watch Game 5 and the 2018-24 seasons and think yeah, Boone’s teams play winning baseball. Seven years of this is enough. I’m sure he’ll be back though. The Yankees love him and they just won the pennant.

What will I remember about the 2024 Yankees? I’ll remember the summer-long Judge/Juan Soto rampage. I’ll remember Luis Gil’s brilliant first half. Austin Wells being the best catcher in baseball for two months. Luke Weaver becoming a relief ace. Ben Thrice. October G. Soto’s ALCS clinching homer. Boone getting ejected for something a fan said (my favorite dumb baseball moment in years). I’ll remember that stuff.

I’ll also remember the World Series. Losing the World Series sticks with you and the Yankees lost the World Series to the team they should be but aren’t, and in a very embarrassing way that makes it impossible for them to deny their flaws. It is no longer our little secret that this team is fundamentally awful. The entire world watched it on the game’s biggest stage. You could say their flaws were right in front of them.

We could sit here and torture ourselves and say if only the Yankees had won Game 1. If only they had won Game 1, things could have been different. Reader, the Yankees would have lost the World Series anyway. They are way too sloppy and not deep enough to beat the Dodgers four times in seven games. The Yankees hit their ceiling again. They can beat AL Central teams in October, and no one else. Rinse, repeat.

2. Miscellaneous end-of-season notes. Was it last year that the Yankees waited an abnormally long time to hold their end-of-season press conferences? Or the year before? I don’t have the energy to look. At some point the powers that be will get in front of a microphone and talk about the season that just ended, and the offseason to come. Until then, here are a few miscellaneous notes.

Soto open to all offers

The obsessive Juan Soto free agency watch has begun. Following the Game 5 loss, Soto was of course asked about his free agency, and although he was very complimentary of the Yankees, he said he’s going to listen to every offer and give every team the same opportunity to sign him. Soto has made it no secret over the years that he’s going to milk free agency for all he can. His time has come.

“I'm really happy with the city, with the team, how these guys do,” Soto said. “At the end of the day, we're gonna look at every situation, every offer that we'll get, and take the decision from there … I feel like every team has the same opportunities when I go into free agency. I don't want to say anyone has an advantage because at the end of the day we're gonna look at what they have and how much they want me."

I caution you not to read anything into what Soto said. That’s not a sign he’s unhappy and looking to leave the Yankees. He’s just playing the game. Scott Boras has Soto trained very well. You’re going to drive yourself nuts if you spend the offseason trying to read between the lines of every soundbite. This is Boras and Soto maximizing their leverage and nothing more. This is free agency for an elite player. The game is the game.

The Yankees will try to re-sign Soto. The Mets will go after him. The Blue Jays too. The Dodgers will check in. The “the Nationals could try to bring him back” stories have begun. Eventually we’ll hear the Braves and Phillies are trying to figure out a way to make it work. The Orioles and Red Sox, the Yankees’ two biggest rivals, will get some ink at some point. There will be a Mystery Team. The Giants will finish third.

There are two ways this could go. Soto could pull a Gerrit Cole and take the highest offer. Five years ago the Yankees simply kept adding years until Cole said yes. Or he could pull an Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He could set his price, and once teams meet it, he’ll make his decision based on all the other stuff. Chance to win, team culture, etc. My guess is Soto goes the Cole route, but who knows.

My contract prediction is: more. Whatever number you think it’ll take to get it done, it’ll be more. That has been the case with every single tippy top of the market free agent in recent years. Judge, Ohtani, etc. They all blew contract projections out of the water. The biggest spenders (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc.) are insulated from Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports collapse. There is a lot of money waiting to be spent.

If anyone tells you they know how Soto’s free agency will go, don’t listen to them. No one knows. Boras and Soto don’t even know at this point. We have a pretty good idea which teams will be interested (all the good teams with money) and we know there will be constant rumors because that is what Boras does. He floods the rumor mill. So, we’ll see. Try not to drive yourself insane these next few weeks.

Rizzo hopes to retire as Yankee

When the Yankees visited Wrigley Field in September, Anthony Rizzo told reporters “I really hope to retire as a Yankee,” something he reiterated after the Game 5 loss. "I don't know what the future (holds). Talk with Cash, see what they're thinking. We have a lot left to give in this game in a lot of different ways," he said Wednesday. Rizzo’s $17M club option ($6M buyout) must be exercised or declined by Monday.

There is a chance Rizzo will get his wish and retire as a Yankee, just not in the way he thinks. That’s a bit harsh, but a 35-year-old first baseman with a bad back who can no longer drive the ball or field his position capably will not be a hot free agent commodity. Rizzo’s hit .209/.291/.298 (70 wRC+) in close to 600 plate appearances since the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. last May, and he’s become unreliable at first base.

Let’s be real here. Guys like that minor league contracts, or they get $5M from the Marlins or Pirates so the MLBPA doesn’t file a grievance over them pocketing revenue sharing money. Rizzo’s likable and easy to root for, and he’s beloved in the clubhouse, but the Yankees have to move on. First base was so bad this year. It is a position that gives the Yankees an opportunity to make an enormous upgrade in 2025.

Yankees have No. 39 pick in 2025 draft

The draft order is now determined via lottery and postseason finish, and losing the World Series gives the Yankees the No. 29 pick. The Dodgers get the No. 30 pick, the last pick of the first round, for winning the World Series. The Yankees lost the World Series and get the second-to-last pick of the first round. Under the old reverse order of the standings setup, they would’ve had the No. 28 pick. Tiny difference.

The World Series loss gives the Yankees the No. 29 pick, and because they exceeded the $277M third luxury tax threshold, their first rounder moves back 10 spots. The No. 29 pick becomes the No. 39 pick. It will be the Yankees’ latest first selection since 2014, back when teams surrendered first rounders to sign qualified free agents. Their first pick was No. 55 that year (Jacob Lindgren) after a hectic offseason that saw them pick up compensation picks for Robbie Canó and Curtis Granderson, and forfeit picks to sign Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann.

Oklahoma HS IF Ethan Holliday, Matt’s other son and Jackson’s brother, is the consensus No. 1 prospect in the 2025 draft class, but at this point that doesn’t mean much. It is way too early to know whether it’ll be a good, bad, pitcher, hitter, etc. draft class. Whatever kinda draft class it is, the Yankees will have the No. 39 pick next summer. (MLB Pipeline’s top draft prospects list isn’t even out yet.)

Rays could play at GMS Field

It has been three weeks since the Tropicana Field roof was shredded by Hurricane Milton. MLB, the Rays, and the City of St. Petersburg are still assessing the damage. Here’s a video from inside the park. The roof is the biggest concern, but there’s also damage to offices, to the field, and all over the stadium really (the stingrays are okay though). Here’s the latest on the Rays and where they could play in 2025:

• Nothing is official yet but the Trop is not expected to be ready to start next season. MLB hopes to have a final determination made by Christmas. (Jesse Rogers)

• If the Rays do need a temporary home, MLB prefers to keep them in the area, close to the fan base. Also so players and employees don’t have to relocate. (Curt Anderson)

• The Trop is scheduled to be torn down when the team's new stadium opens in 2028. They’re not eager to spend millions on a roof that will be demolished in a few years. (Marc Topkin)

Several Spring Training stadiums in the area are reportedly under consideration for a temporary home, including George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The Rays’ Spring Training complex is about 85 miles south of St. Petersburg and not really local. Minor league stadiums in Dunedin (Blue Jays), Clearwater (Phillies), Bradenton (Pirates), and Orlando (Disney’s complex) are among those under consideration.

Another obstacle: MLB can’t just say okay, go play in that minor league park. The MLBPA has a say in this and facilities will need to be upgraded to meet CBA standards. Rumor has it this makes GMS Field a leading candidate to host the Rays. The clubhouses were upgraded last offseason, the stadium lighting is top tier, and generally speaking less work would be needed to make the park suitable for a Major League team. There’s also plenty of parking with Raymond James Stadium across the street.

The minor league schedule would have to be reworked because Low-A Tampa plays home games in GMS Field, though apparently that’s not a huge deal. A headache, but workable. The larger issue is a Spring Training stadium, no matter which one,  is only a temporary solution. You can’t expect a Major League team to play outside in Florida in the summer. In April and May? Okay, but any later than that is a nope. We’ll see what happens. Nothing’s imminent. (The Yankees are supposed to visit the Rays from April 17-20).

Giants fire Zaidi, could have interest in Sabean

I mentioned this might happen in a mailbag a few weeks ago: POBO Farhan Zaidi was let go by the Giants. Buster Posey took over, so that’s fun. There is a wave of former players joining the front office ranks (Chris Young and the Rangers, Chris Getz and the White Sox, Sam Fuld and the Phillies, Brandon Gomes and the Dodgers, etc.) and Posey is the latest. Curious to see how this goes.

I am noting this for two reasons. One, current Yankees advisor and former Giants GM Brian Sabean is a candidate to rejoin the Giants as an advisor. “It’s possible. We’d have to see what type of role he’d want to be in,” Posey told Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d). If Sabean wants to go back to San Francisco, let him. I know he was a primary architect of the 1990s Yankees dynasty, but let him go and turn the page.

And two, the Yankees should hire Zaidi. Brian Cashman isn’t going anywhere, but there is always room for more smart people in the front office. The last few years suggest Zaidi is in over his head a bit as the lead executive – he was described to me as too rational for his own good – but as the No. 2 guy, he’s an ace. He was Dodgers POBO Andrew Friedman’s right-hand man before joining the Giants.

The Yankees are very good at big moves (trading for Juan Soto, signing Gerrit Cole, etc.) and also very good at small moves (waiver claims, Luke Weaver types, etc.). They’re not so good at everything in the middle. Mid-range free agents (Marcus Stroman), stopgap position players (Alex Verdugo), moves like that. The middle of the market whiffs keep holding the Yankees back and hurting their depth.

That is where Zaidi excelled with the Dodgers and Giants. The Yankees need someone who can help them dig up their own Max Muncy and LaMonte Wade Jr., and identify a Kevin Gausman and a Carlos Rodón before they break out and cost nine figures. Those are the kinda moves the Yankees have been lacking the last few years. They have a way of letting roster problems linger for years.

Zaidi’s time in San Francisco didn’t go as many expected, I’m shocked their roster is this bad six years into his tenure, but he’s a smart guy who had success as the No. 2 with the Dodgers. Unless there’s a surprise firing, there are no top baseball ops jobs available. The Yankees could use more smart people and some outside perspective. Zaidi may not want to be a No. 2, but there isn't a No. 1 job available right now. Even if it’s for only one year until a top job opens up, Zaidi could help the Yankees.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Adam asks: I had watched very little of Jazz prior to coming to New York. I loved his enthusiasm, I was impressed with his arm and ability to pick-up 3rd base. But Mike, the complaining, my god. Anything close he has to talk to the umpire about. Every play he looks in the dugout and says to challenge. It's always something. He doesn't even try to hide it! Judge will put his head down and clearly talk to the ump but Jazz will turn his whole body and make a face as if a close pitch bounced and he's shocked it was a strike. What do the Yankees do with him in 2025? I doubt he's worth enough in a trade, but man he is tough to watch sometimes. If they keep him, does Jorbit play 2nd and he plays 3rd? I feel playing him at 2nd is a waste of his arm. Do the Yankees re-sign Soto, move him (or Judge) to first, but the other in right, and put Jasson/Jazz in left?

Yeah, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is definitely a complainer. He does himself no favors there. Umpires are supposed to remain objective and unbiased, but keep chirping, and it could cost you. As for 2025, I think the Yankees should keep Jazz at third base, though he can move around and that gives them the option to see what comes their way and most improves the team. Jazz clearly has the physical tools for third base, right? The quick twitch reactions, the hands, the arm, etc. (It would be such a waste to put his arm at second base.) He just doesn’t know how to play third. I’d hope that, with more experience, he’ll grow comfortable and play the position better. I think the Yankees should keep him at third base and have him work on that position and that position only over the winter and in Spring Training. If he stays healthy, Chisholm’s a 30/30 candidate next year. His swing and approach are perfect for Yankee Stadium. I mean heck, he went 24/40 this year while playing most of the season in Miami. 30/30 next year is well within reach.

C.J. asks: I couldn’t help but notice this during the series. By my count, based on reporting at the time the players were acquired by LAD, the following players essentially slipped through NYY’s hands on their way to becoming Dodgers: Tommy Edman, Jack Flaherty, Freddie Freeman, Kiké Hernandez, & Yoshinobu Yamamoto. To you, does this say about the Yankees?

There are more examples too. The Dodgers tried to sign Gerrit Cole and DJ LeMahieu (the first time), and trade for Giancarlo Stanton, and they wound up with the Yankees. Tommy Kahnle’s last two employers are the Yankees and Dodgers (and Yankees again). This just means there’s overlap in how the two teams value players and the skills they prioritize, so they wind up pursuing the same players. You can take this as a good thing or a bad thing. A good thing because the Yankees are identifying the right players, a bad thing because the Dodgers beat them to the punch several times (and in the World Series). What does this say about the Yankees? I dunno. That they should maybe be more aggressive in trades and free agency? They are identifying the right guys. They’re just not getting them all. I’m sure this happens a lot, smart teams having interest in the same players. I don't think it's especially unique to the Yankees and Dodgers. There's surely overlap with other teams too.

Max asks: After Game 4: If Gil was only meant to pitch Game 4, and won't be rested enough for a Game 5, 6, or 7, and you know you're facing elimination in every game, do you fake an injury to get him off the roster to get another arm? Like Beeter or Effross? It's the edges of the roster but every little bit helps.

Can’t do it. MLB must approve all injury replacements in the postseason. Dr. Gary Green, MLB’s medical director, reviews all test results and the player’s medical information, and either signs off or says nope. You can’t just say oh yeah, he has some lower back soreness, we need to drop him from the roster. This is the kinda thing that, if it was allowed, it would happen every single year. Every single postseason series, really.

Mike asks: Could a team (ex. White Sox) that has an early Rule 5 pick reach out to the Yankees and tell them that if the Yankees don't protect Player A (ex. Rumfield), they will definitely pick him in the draft? Then, offer a lottery ticket player in A ball for the rights to the player. This way, the acquiring team puts the player on the 40 man roster without having to keep him on the MLB roster all season long. For roster flexibility, they give up a little. Would this be considered some form of collusion based upon the threat of taking the player in the draft if they were exposed? I realize trades like this are made all the time, but I'm more curious if there is any potential rule bending that might be occurring.

Nah, not collusion. This is well within the rules. These trades are rare because teams usually get out in front of their Rule 5 Draft protection at the trade deadline, and trade players they don’t anticipate protecting during the summer rather than wait until November. Trades along these lines sometimes happen after the Rule 5 Draft. The team picks the player, gives him a look in Spring Training, and if they decide they want to keep him but would rather not carry him on their MLB roster, they trade for his rights. The player’s former team has little leverage (“if you don’t make a trade, we’ll just keep him on the roster and you’ll lose him anyway”) and his new team gets a 1.5-month free trial in Spring Training. These trades are possible, for sure. Nothing's against the rules. They just don’t happen because teams don’t wait until the last minute to solve their Rule 5 Draft protection issues.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)