Thoughts before Game 1 of the 2024 World Series

UPDATE: Turns out Jon Berti is not on the roster because of an injury. He has a right hip flexor strain, Aaron Boone announced. Berti suffered it running the bases in ALCS Game 4. Looks to me like he came up limping a bit after scoring on Alex Verdugo's infield single (video). This is Berti's third lower body injury of 2024. He was out with a groin strain from April 13th to May 4th, and a calf strain from May 25th to Sept. 9th. Now his hip is acting up.

ORIGINAL POST: The 2024 World Series, featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, will begin Friday night at Dodger Stadium. I have written thousands of words, probably millions, about this stupid team since the last time they were in the World Series. Around these parts, 15 years between pennants is an eternity, let alone 15 years between parades. I can’t wait. I also feel like I’m gonna be sicktest2.

“Dodgers-Yankees, two pillar franchises in the sport, obviously with a lot of history, going back a long, long time,” Aaron Boone said Thursday. “These two teams have met up a lot in the Fall Classic. Amazing that it's been 43 years. It's certainly special, especially with having a few days to allow it to sink in and getting ready. I think this is something that will garner a lot of interest all over the country, all over the world, probably more so than usual. I think everyone can identify with Dodgers, can identify with Yankees, and just what that means worldwide. Excited to be a part of it. But for us now, that's all it is. We're getting ready for an opponent with a chance to win a world title, and that's what we're looking forward to.”

The Yankees flew to California on Wednesday and Clarke Schmidt’s father, Dwight, a commercial pilot with Delta for over 20 years, flew the friends and family plane out. The Yankee Dads have gone viral this October for their dance routines after postseason wins (video). José Soto and Eusebio Torres started it and based the dance numbers on winter ball in Latin America. The other Yankee Dads then joined in.

“We practice sometimes,” Soto told Britt Ghiroli (subs. req’d). “Despite being American, (Michael Volpe) dances it well.”

Brian Cashman, other front office folks, and a bunch of behind-the-scenes people remain from 2009, but only one uniformed person is still with the Yankees: Mike Harkey. Harkey was the bullpen coach in 2009 and he is still the bullpen coach in 2024, though he did leave for two years to serve as the Diamondbacks pitching coach (2014-15). Harkey is the only player or coaching staff tie to the last championship Yankees team.

“For me, he’s such a rock and an amazing sounding board and friend,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Harkey. “So much experience now in the game as a player and as a coach. Obviously great at what he does and in his role. I just feel so lucky that he’s on our staff and been a rock for me over the years.”

To win the World Series, the Yankees will have to do something they still have not done since the 2012 ALDS against the Orioles: Beat a non-AL Central team in a postseason series. They did beat the Athletics in the 2018 Wild Card Game, but that was one single game. They haven’t beaten a team outside the AL Central in an actual multi-game postseason series since Raul Ibañez’s magic.

• 2012: Beat Orioles in ALDS, lost ALCS to Tigers

• 2013: Missed postseason

• 2014: Missed postseason

• 2015: Lost Wild Card Game to Astros

• 2016: Missed postseason

• 2017: Beat Twins in Wild Card Game, beat Cleveland in ALDS, lost ALCS to Astros

• 2018: Beat A’s in Wild Card Game, lost ALDS to Red Sox

• 2019: Beat Twins in ALDS, lost ALCS to Astros

• 2020: Beat Cleveland in Wild Card Series, lost ALDS to Rays

• 2021: Lost Wild Card Game to Red Sox

• 2022: Beat Guardians in ALDS, lost ALCS to Astros

• 2023: Missed postseason

• 2024: Beat Royals in ALDS, beat Guardians in ALCS, now World Series vs. Dodgers

Giancarlo Stanton is playing his hometown team in the ballpark where he won All-Star Game MVP in 2022. Stanton is a .309/.363/.723 (189 wRC+) hitter with 10 homers in 25 career games at Dodger Stadium, and he once hit a ball out of the stadium. Aaron Judge is the best hitter against the Dodgers ever. Gerrit Cole and Tim Hill grew up in Southern California like Stanton. So did Boone.

“I grew up with my dad in the ’70s and ’80s playing for the Phillies, who won a bunch of Eastern Division championships, and the Dodgers sent them home in back-to-back Championship Series years for the right to play the Yankees in the Fall Classic,” Boone said earlier this week. “That’s right in my wheelhouse, those teams in those days. It’s definitely meaningful to me and not lost upon me. I’m looking forward to all of it. The stars will be out, the eyeballs will be watching, and hopefully we can deliver on a great series.”

Ticket prices are obscene and the 8pm ET start time means there will be empty seats at Dodger Stadium at first pitch. Fans need time to leave work, sit in traffic, get into the ballpark, etc. I reckon it will be much louder at Yankee Stadium when the game begins than out in Los Angeles. Regardless, two great teams with plenty of stars. This is what the World Series should be. Here are a few thoughts on Juan Soto's 26th birthday.

Game 1 on Friday: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (8pm ET on FOX)

1. World Series rosters announced. The World Series rosters had to be submitted to MLB by 1pm ET, and both teams announced them publicly about an hour later. The Dodgers added Brusdar Graterol, Miguel Rojas, and Alex Vesia. Edgardo Henriquez, Kevin Kiermaier, and Evan Phillips were dropped. Phillips revealed he had “arm fatigue” during the NLCS. It must be pretty bad if he’s missing the World Series. Phillips is one of their go-to high leverage guys. That’s a really big loss. They’ll miss him in the late innings.

Here is the Dodgers’ World Series roster. Now here are the 26 players the Yankees will use in the World Series:

Nestor Cortes on, Jon Berti off. The rest is the same as the ALCS. I’m surprised the Yankees kept Trent Grisham, who was on the ALDS and ALCS rosters but did not get into a game, over Berti, who can play all over and pinch-run. Then again, they have used Jasson Domínguez as their top pinch-runner this postseason, and having Grisham on the bench as the reserve center fielder means they can be more aggressive with Domínguez. Grisham is more of a threat at the plate than Berti too. He can come off the bench and run into a mistake. Little surprising though. Sure.

Cortes threw several live BPs in recent days and apparently all went well. The Yankees have three lefties in the bullpen (Cortes, Tim Hill, Tim Mayza) to match up with Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy (and others). Not a surprise the Yankees added a 13th pitcher. Their bullpen was worn down by the end of the ALCS and that was only five games. The Dodgers will make the pitching staff work way harder than the Royals and Guardians. Kinda nuts that 13 pitchers feels necessary for a best-of-seven, no? (The Dodgers are carrying 13 pitchers as well.)

2. Dodgers set rotation (kinda). It did not occur to me until sometime Tuesday that the Yankees will face Jack Flaherty in the World Series after nearly trading for him at the deadline. They reportedly had a deal in place with the Tigers, then backed out over concerns about Flaherty’s back. He missed a start in early July and received two injections in his back in the span of three weeks leading up to the deadline.

(Jon Heyman says the Tigers wanted Will Warren, and that Agustin Ramirez was also part of trade talks. The Yankees later sent Ramirez to the Marlins for Jazz Chisholm Jr. Would getting Flaherty have meant no Chisholm?)

The Tigers instead traded Flaherty to the Dodgers for a package that included former Yankees first rounder Trey Sweeney. Flaherty started out well with the Dodgers before fading late in the regular season. He’s had one great start (seven shutout innings in NLCS game 1), one okay start (four runs in 5.1 innings in NLDS Game 2), and one awful start (eight runs in three innings in NLCS Game 5) this postseason.

• Regular season with Tigers: 2.95 ERA (3.12 FIP) and 5.9 innings per start

• Regular season with Dodgers: 3.58 ERA (4.16 FIP) and 5.5 innings per start

• Postseason with Dodgers: 7.04 ERA (6.23 FIP) and 5.1 innings per start

Flaherty will start Game 1 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who shut the Yankees down on June 7th, will start Game 2. Then it will be Walker Buehler and a bullpen game in Games 3 and 4 in either order. The Dodgers haven’t said yet. Buehler in Game 3 would line him up to start Game 7, and the Dodgers would need only one bullpen game in the series. Then again, wouldn’t it be easier to bullpen Game 3 coming out of the off-day?

The Dodgers have seven (!) starters on the Major League injured list. They’ve used bullpen games out of necessity, not because this is what they want to do. Also, the starters the Dodgers do have typically do not pitch deep into games. Yamamoto has not thrown more than 79 pitches since returning from his shoulder injury in September. Buehler has labored to get through five innings since coming back from his second Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

Here are how many innings Buehler, Flaherty, and Yamamoto have thrown in their eight postseason starts: 3, 5.1, 5, 5, 7, 4, 4.1, 3. Those three have a combined 6.14 ERA (5.32 FIP) and are averaging 4.6 innings per start in the postseason. Some short starts were because of ineffectiveness, some were to avoid the third time through the order, and some were because those guys aren’t built to pitch 6-7 innings.

Working the count, grinding out at-bats, and wearing down the starter is a timeless strategy. It is effective in any era. It’s maybe not as effective now as in the past because every bullpen is full of 98 mph fastballs and sliders that seem to defy the laws of physics, but it is effective, and no team this year grinded out at-bats like the Yankees. The Dodgers came close, but the Yankees were a touch better:

That has continued this postseason. The Yankees have the highest walk rate and the lowest chase rate in baseball. The Dodgers are second in both categories. They drew 42 walks in the NLCS, the most walks in a postseason series ever (it didn’t even go the full seven games), yet the Yankees have the highest walk rate in October: 13.9% vs. 12.6%. We’re gonna see a lot of walks in the World Series, I suspect.

On paper, the Yankees have the rotation advantage, largely because they have four actual starters. Their fourth starter is going to get Rookie of the Year votes! Yankees starters have thrown four more innings than Dodgers starters this postseason despite playing two fewer games. The Dodgers have three starters who don’t pitch deep into games at all. They use their bullpen a ton and not only on bullpen day games.

The Yankees wore down Cleveland’s starters early in the ALCS and reaped the rewards when Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith were on fumes later in the series. It is imperative they do this again in the World Series. Work Buehler, Flaherty, and Yamamoto hard and force the Dodgers to use that bullpen even more than they already do. It’s a very good bullpen, but it is not impenetrable. Every out a Dodgers' starter gets in the sixth inning or later is a tiny little failure by the Yankees.

At the same time, the starters have to give the Yankees some length, and avoid overexposing the underbelly of the bullpen. The Dodgers are going to wear down Yankees pitchers – the Yankees and Dodgers are similar in that they don’t work the count for the sake of working the count, they’re waiting for something in the zone they can drive, and if it’s the first pitch, they’ll swing – and the middle of the bullpen is sketchy.

(Obligatory caveat: Trying to predict what any reliever will do in his next 4-5 innings is a waste of time.)

Gerrit Cole is the best starter in the World Series and must pitch like it. Carlos Rodón might be the second best starter in the World Series, and even if he’s not, he must pitch like he is. Those two are the biggest advantage the Yankees have over the Dodgers. They can match the Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton star power and star production. They can not match Cole, and maybe not Rodón either. Beating up on the rotation essential.

3. Bunting on Freeman. I mentioned this the other day and it’s worth repeating: Anthony Volpe should bunt on Freddie Freeman. Early in the series too. First at-bat, if the situation allows. Freeman is playing on a sprained ankle and is clearly hobbled, so test it. It’s the World Series. Show no mercy. Volpe is pretty good at pushing bunts toward first base (videos). Make Freeman show you he can field his position.

Even if Freeman makes the play and Volpe bunt into an out, it’s worth it to see how well he’s moving, and to plant the seed. Remember the 2003 World Series? Second pitch of the series, Juan Pierre bunted for a hit (video), and it completely broke the Yankees’ collective brain. They were paranoid Pierre (and Luis Castillo) would lay down a bunt every time they stepped to the plate the rest of the series. 

So, test Freeman with a bunt early in Game 1, and put it in his mind that you’re going to bunt and force him to hustle on the ankle. He’s hobbled. He’s in pain. Make him feel it. Make him a little nervous when he’s playing first base. I have mad respect for Freeman. He’s a Hall of Famer in my book. But, if he’s going to play hurt, then try to exploit it. This is the big leagues. This is the World Series. Prey on weakness.

Volpe’s had success bunting toward first base this season, and it would make sense for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to bunt toward Freeman as well. It’s not just about making him move to get the ball. You want to pressure him with speed too. Even if the first bunt is out, do it again if Freeman looks shaky. The Yankees famously didn’t not bunt against Curt Schilling in 2004. Do not repeat the mistake 20 years later with Freeman.

“With all injuries, treatment and rest and time away from the initial injury is only going to be better,” Freeman told Juan Toribio earlier this week. “So we’re just trying to do the best we can to get it into a spot where we’re ready to go on Friday.”

4. Final thoughts. You are free to yell at me: I picked the Dodgers to win the World Series in seven games in our CBS staff predictions. I tend to pick the team with the deeper and more high-powered offense in the postseason, and the Yankees have some easy outs once you get into the 5-9 spots. The advantage the Yankees had over the Royals and Guardians was SLG. The Dodgers can match that and they’re a much more buttoned-up on the bases and in the field. They have a greater margin of error, basically. 

That does not mean I expect the Yankees to get bowled ever. I think it’ll be a very good and very entertaining series that goes 6-7 games. Gerrit Cole is so important. Hard to see how the Yankees can win the World Series without him pitching well. Same with Aaron Judge. He’s hitting .161/.317/.387 (94 wRC+) in nine games this October. You can beat the Royals and Guardians with Judge doing that. Not the Dodgers. Your best players have to be your best players this time of year. They can’t just tag along for the ride.

“It’s really important to have your star players set the tone,” Dodgers POBO Andrew Friedman told Juan Toribio earlier this week. “Depending on how they handle that stardom and responsibility has a pretty major impact on the culture of your team.”

Cole and Judge have to be difference-makers. If they are, the Yankees will have a chance to win. If they’re not, the Yankees almost certainly will not win No. 28. Cole and Judge must perform and others who’ve had quiet postseasons (cough Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells cough) must do something that moves the needle, even if it’s just a random solo homer like Wells in ALCS Game 4. I picked the Dodgers to win but I am not super confident. This World Series is as close to a 50/50 toss up as any in my lifetime. The Yankees are absolutely talented enough to win it.