October 24th, 2024: World Series X-Factors, Mailbag

The World Series will begin Friday on a somber note: Dodgers legend Fernando Valenzuela died Tuesday. He was 63. Fernandomania was before my time but is one of those extraordinary baseball things I wish I could have experienced. He supercharged the sport, particularly in Southern California. Valenzuela won Rookie of the Year and Cy Young as a 20-year-old in 1981, and helped the Dodgers beat the Yankees in the World Series. The Dodgers and MLB are planning to honor him during the World Series, probably before Game 1. My heart goes out to the Dodgers and their fans, but I also hope they don’t honor Valenzuela with a World Series win. Sorry folks, but the game is the game. Here now is today’s post.

1. World Series x-factors. My ALDS x-factors were ridiculously bad and completely irrelevant. My ALCS x-factors were a bit more on the ball. The Yankees did wear down Cleveland’s bullpen (or, really, Stephen Vogt wore down his bullpen) and Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton each hit an important home run on a fastball up in the zone. Let’s go down memory lane (videos):

Game 1 of the World Series is still a day away – this week has felt interminable, hasn’t it? – so let’s get back on the horse, and lay out some x-factors for Dodgers vs. Yankees. I still can’t believe this is real. Yankees vs. Dodgers in a true World Series clash of the titans. We’ve earned this after sitting through years of Jayson Nix at-bats and Luis Cessa innings.

Cole being the No. 1

No. 1 as in the best starter in the series. On paper, the Yankees have the starting pitching advantage, and not by a little either, right? The Dodgers have five MLB starters on the injured list (Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Gavin Stone) and they’re also without a few depth arms. They use bullpen games because they don’t have enough starters. Not because they want to.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is really good, though the Dodgers have limited him to 75-ish pitches since he returned from his shoulder injury in September, so he’s a five-and-fly guy. Jack Flaherty had a bumpy end to the regular season and a bumpy postseason. He’s in Brett Anderson territory where the idea of acquiring him is better than actually acquiring him. Walker Buehler has been greatly diminished since his second Tommy John surgery. This is not the most imposing rotation.

Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher in the World Series (Carlos Rodón might be No. 2) and he needs to perform at that level. He is the single greatest advantage the Yankees have over the Dodgers. They can match the Judge/Soto/Stanton star power. They have more lineup and bullpen depth, I think. The Dodgers do not have a Cole though. A difference-making starter who can truly dominate.

There’s no denying this has been a rocky postseason for Cole, who’s made one great start (ALDS Game 4) and two so-so starts (ALDS Game 1 and ALCS Game 2). Beating the Dodgers with Cole being something less than very good will be difficult. The ace pitching like ace is the greatest separator the Yankees have this series. This series is why the Yankees signed Cole. Now he needs to perform.

Freeman’s ankle

The two first basemen in this series are highly respected veterans with World Series rings who suffered back luck injuries in the final days of the regular season. Anthony Rizzo is playing with two broken fingers after getting hit by a pitch in Game 161. Freddie Freeman sprained his right ankle when he stumbled running through first base in Game 159, and did this:

Freeman said the trainers told him it’s a 4-6 week injury (this is Week 4), but he got treatment during the Wild Card Series bye week, and was back out there in the NLDS a week later. Clearly though, he is diminished. Freeman’s hitting .219/.242/.219 (31 wRC+) this postseason with little hard-hit ability, zero speed, and shaky defense. The Dodgers can’t put him at DH either because of Shohei Ohtani.

The injury is bad enough that a) the Dodgers burn mound visits to give Freeman a breather after he makes plays on defense, and b) he’s sat out three games this postseason. That includes NLDS Game 4, when the Dodgers were facing elimination, and NLCS Game 6, when the Dodgers had a chance to clinch the pennant. Imagine how bad the pain must be for Freeman to sit out an elimination game and a potential pennant-clincher.

Going into Game 1, Freeman will have played one game in the previous eight days and no games in the previous six days. I’m sure he spent this week getting treatment. This is as healthy as the ankle is going to get, and the difference between healthy Freeman and the current version is significant. Significant enough to swing a World Series. I bet he plays every game. How effective he’ll be is another matter.

"Every day I can get off my feet, not running, treating this, is huge,” Freeman told Mike DiGiovanna on Tuesday. “… I've had three straight days of not running, so every day is going to be better. Trying to do the best we can to get it to a spot where we'll be ready to go on Friday.”

(Anthony Volpe pushing a bunt in Freeman's direction feels like a thing that should happen Friday. If he's gonna play on that ankle, then test him and really make him play on it.)

LA’s lack of lefties

The Yankees have had issues with left-handers all season and the Dodgers had one lefty on their NLCS roster: Anthony Banda (former Yankee Anthony Banda). He reinvented himself as a slider monster this year and was quite good for the Dodgers. Los Angeles could add rookie southpaw Justin Wrobleski to the roster, he threw 36.1 replacement level innings for them this year, though that seems unlikely.

The wild card is Alex Vesia, their go-to high leverage lefty. He suffered an intercostal strain during the NLDS and was not on the NLCS roster, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called him a “game-time decision” for the World Series roster. Banda and Vesia are both awfully tough on lefties. Their 2024 numbers:

• Banda: .218/.282/.269 (.251 wOBA) with 27.6 K%

• Vesia: .144/.238/.311 (.245 wOBA) with 32.4 K%

No Vesia would leave the Dodgers with only one lefty in the World Series. Roberts would have to pick between using Banda against Juan Soto, or the Jazz Chisholm Jr./Anthony Rizzo/Alex Verdugo lane at the bottom of the lineup. Or just leaving him in to face all four guys, which you could maybe do 2-3 times in the series, but not every single game. Not without burning out/overexposing Banda.

The Dodgers do not have a lefty starter and that’s sneaky great for the Yankees. They also have only one lefty reliever at the moment. Maybe Vesia is healthy enough to be on the World Series roster. Intercostal injuries are tough and can linger for weeks though (they’re basically oblique strains), and who knows how effective Vesia will be even if he is on the roster? Playing hurt is admirable, but not always smart.

Michael Kopech is better against lefties than righties and Daniel Hudson’s platoon split is about neutral, so, even with the lack of lefties, the Dodgers have a very good bullpen. It is one that will give the Yankees the platoon advantage a bunch though, particularly the lefty heavy bottom of the lineup and particularly if Vesia can not go. The Yankees can have trouble with lefties and the Dodgers just don’t have many of them. 

How nasty is Nestor?

The Yankees have their own injured lefty in Nestor Cortes. He’s working his way back from a flexor strain and it sure sounds like he’s going to be on the World Series roster. Cortes faced hitters in live BP again Tuesday, and afterward he admitted he still has some soreness, and that he understands the risks. Flexor strains can turn into Tommy John surgery, but Nestor’s ready to risk it.

“The conversations have been really clear throughout the whole postseason,” Cortes told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “We have weighed the consequences that this can lead up to, but if I have a ring and then a year off of baseball, then so be it.”

Admirable. Maybe not the smartest thing in the world, but admirable. In the short-term, the most pressing question is how effective will Cortes be after the flexor strain? What good is carrying him on the roster if he can't perform? Nestor ate up lefties during the regular season (.204/.248/.282 and .235 wOBA with 27.5 K%) and having him available for Ohtani, Freeman, and Max Muncy would be a nice little bullpen boost.

The World Series roster does not have to be submitted to MLB until 10am PT on Friday, so 1pm here on the superior coast. We won't find out whether Cortes makes the roster until tomorrow afternoon. Being on the roster is one thing. Pitching well is what really matters. This Nestor move makes me nervous. Kinda feels like the Yankees are just winging it because they don't trust Tim Mayza or Marcus Stroman or whoever. But, if Cortes is on the roster, I hope he pitches well.

The 7-8-9 hitters

You have to figure the stars will get theirs. Judge, Soto, Stanton, Ohtani, Mookie Betts, etc. Those guys will make an impact at some point in the World Series. To limit the damage, you must keep the 7-8-9 hitters in check, and make sure there are as few runners on base as possible when the historically great top of the lineups come to the plate. Ohtani’s postseason splits are comical:

• Bases empty: 4-for-29 (.138) with 13 K

• Runners on: 8-for-13 (.615) with 2 HR

That is small sample size weirdness to the max, but yes, you want Ohtani and Betts hitting with the bases empty as often as possible. And the same goes for the Dodgers on the other side. They want to keep the bottom of the order in check so they can limit Soto, Judge, and Stanton to solo homers rather than the game-changing multi-run shots. Here are each team’s 7-8-9 hitters this postseason:

• Dodgers: .262/.301/.415

• Yankees: .256/.376/.344

The personnel has changed throughout the postseason. Enrique Hernández, Gavin Lux, and Andy Pages have most often batted in the 7-8-9 spots for the Dodgers, though they’ve also had Tommy Edman, Will Smith, and Chris Taylor down there at various points. For the Yankees, Alex Verdugo and Volpe have been the constants in the 7-8-9 spots. The other spot is more of a revolving door.

Volpe’s had an excellent postseason: .310/.459/.345 (147 wRC+) with more walks (21.6%) than strikeouts (16.2%). Verdugo’s had a few timely hits this postseason, for sure, and the value of contact was born out when the Guardians bobbled a couple of his weak ground balls, but he’s been bad overall (.194/.286/.258 and 60 wRC+) in October. It is what it is. Verdugo’s in there for his glove.

That .376 OBP from the 7-8-9 spot is propped by my Volpe and the first basemen. The Yankees got some of the worst first base production in franchise history during the regular season (.216/.284/.355 and 76 wRC+!), but whoever they’ve put there this postseason has produced: .290/.405/.355 between Rizzo, Jon Berti, and Oswaldo Cabrera. Zero power whatsoever*, but sign me up for that OBP.

* The Yankees still have not gotten a home run from a first baseman since DJ LeMahieu’s grand slam in Philadelphia on July 31st. That was 61 games and 244 plate appearances ago.

Again, you have to figure the big names will do their thing during the series. It is easier to keep Betts and Ohtani down in a seven-game series than it is during a 162-game season, but it’s still really hard, and you have to figure they’ll do something impactful at some point. Not making life worse by getting beat by the 7-8-9 hitters is a way to mitigate that damage. Keep 7-8-9 off base and shorten the lineup.

Outfield arms

I love a good outfield throw. Few things in this sport can take your breath away quite like a rocket throw to get a runner at the plate, or even just stop a runner from advancing. If you’re like me and enjoy good outfield arms, this is the World Series for you. The average outfield throw was about 89 mph in 2024. Here are the World Series outfielders:

1. Andy Pages: 92.6 mph average (102.1 mph max)
2. Alex Verdugo: 92.1 mph average (98.2 mph max)
3. Aaron Judge: 88.1 mph average (95.1 mph max)
4. Teoscar Hernández: 87.5 mph average (93.1 mph max)
5. Enrique Hernández: 86.3 mph average (94.9 mph max)
6. Mookie Betts: 85.5 mph average (94.0 mph max)
7. Juan Soto: 84.7 mph average (89.5 mph max)

Outfield assists are a tricky stat. The guys with the best arms usually don’t get many assists because teams don’t run on them, so they have fewer opportunities. Soto, for example, had 10 assists this year, fourth most in baseball. Why? Because he has a below average arm and teams test him. Judge had only four assists. 46 outfielders had more. Verdugo and Teoscar each had seven outfield assists.

The value of a great arm is just throwing guys out. It’s also preventing runners from going first-to-third, taking the extra base, etc. Dodgers baserunners had a 49% extra-base taken rate this year, the highest in baseball. The Yankees were dead last at 36%. These two teams are on the complete opposite ends of the baserunning spectrum. The Dodgers are great at it. The Yankees positively stink.

One thing the Yankees do well is use their outfield arms (Judge and Verdugo in particular) to stop the other team from taking the extra base. The outfield’s hold rate this year was 65.8%, one of the highest in the league (MLB average: 64.3%). The Yankees do have an unfortunate knack for missing the cutoff man and throwing to the wrong base, which subtracts from their outfield arm contributions, but overall, they are very good, and they hold runners at a comfortably above average rate.

Dodgers’ baserunners vs. Yankees’ outfield arms will be a fun little subplot this World Series. The Dodgers are going to test Soto, I’m sure of it. We’ve seen him make some great throws to cut down runners this year, and the Dodgers will force him to do it again. The Dodgers have great outfield arms too, though the Yankees don't take the extra base often, so I’m not sure it’ll matter much. Aggressive baserunning is a larger part of what the Dodgers do. The Yankees must be ready for it.

Two similar ballparks

Dodger Stadium is one of baseball’s gems. It’s a beautiful place to watch a ballgame. And after being billed as pitcher friendly for decades, we now know that isn’t really the case. In fact, Dodger Stadium is similar to Yankee Stadium in that it inflates home runs while suppressing all other hits. Here are the ballparks the Yankees have played in this postseason with their Statcast park factors:

It’s hard to hit home runs in Kauffman Stadium and Progressive Field (harder than Giancarlo made it look, anyway). Good ballparks for doubles, not so much home runs. Dodger Stadium and Yankee Stadium are two of the most home run friendly ballparks in baseball though. They’re bad for singles, doubles, and triples, but great for homers. Dodger Stadium is better for righties, Yankee Stadium for lefties, and both great for dingers in general.

In theory, Dodger Stadium and Yankee Stadium will give us a more consistent World Series rather than wild swings from hitter friendly to pitcher friendly each time they change venues. These are two home run hitting teams and all 4-7 games will be played in homer happy ballparks. The record is 25 homers by the Astros and Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. Can the Dodgers and Yankees beat that in 2024? Hmmm.

Will Ohtani pitch?

The Dodgers have insisted he will not for weeks now. That’s also exactly what I would expect them to say if he was going to pitch. Not even two weeks ago Dave Roberts admitted he made a big deal of the Manny Machado throw incident just to hype up his guys. Being deceptive through the media is what the Dodgers (and Yankees and every other team) do. Why wouldn’t they do it with Ohtani?

These are the facts: Ohtani had major elbow surgery last September. There are conflicting reports over whether it was the internal brace or full blown Tommy John surgery, but he had his UCL repaired. Ohtani’s rehab is going well and he began throwing bullpen sessions in August. He’s continued to ramp up from there. If he’s faced hitters, it hasn’t been made public. As far as we know, it bullpens only.

"I haven't given much thought to (Ohtani pitching), but if that's the case, we'll be ready for everything," Boone told Peter Sblendorio earlier this week.

Letting Ohtani make his 2024 pitching debut in the World Series would be very aggressive, and the Dodgers have 700 million reasons to be cautious with him. They have a lot of money and a lot of years invested in him. It would be reckless to put him on the mound without proper rehab games and all that, right? Common sense would say yes, but common sense doesn’t always apply in baseball.

The fact of the matter is the Dodgers are in the World Series right now, and they can’t be sure they’ll ever get back with Ohtani. He’s also exceeded every expectation and proved every doubter wrong. Under no circumstances will I say “Ohtani can’t do that.” He can. He obviously can. I will believe Ohtani will not pitch in the World Series when the series is over and he hasn’t pitched, and not a second sooner.

(Ohtani’s two-way player designation is intact because he met the criteria last season. He’s eligible to pitch at any time. He doesn’t have to wait until the Dodgers are down at least eight or up by at least 10 to pitch like regular old position players.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Ben asks: Is there some reason why Gerrit Cole shouldn’t start games 1 and 4 and potentially 7 on short rest? With the pen being the weakest link on the team, doesn't it make sense to use your ace as much as possible like the Yankees did in 2009 with CC? Cole seems like a real routine guy but c’mon—he hasn’t thrown very many innings and this is for the ring! 

Cole has made one career start on short rest: 2020 ALDS Game 5. That was the pandemic postseason with no off-days. He started Game 1, then four days later started the win or go home Game 5. Cole was great too: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 HR on 94 pitches. That was four years ago though. Physically, I’m not sure 34-year-old Cole is as up to starting on short rest as 30-year-old Cole.

Starting Cole on short rest in Games 1, 4, and 7 of the World Series only makes sense if you start Carlos Rodón and either Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil on short rest too, and go with a straight three-man rotation like the Yankees did in 2009. If it’s just Cole on short rest, then you need the No. 4 starter anyway:

Game 1: Gerrit Cole
Game 2: Carlos Rodón
off-day
Game 3: Clarke Schmidt
Game 4: Cole on short rest
Game 5: Luis Gil (if it’s not Rodón on short rest)
off-day
Game 6: Rodón (if it’s not Schmidt on short rest)
Game 7: Cole on short rest (or Schmidt on normal rest)

Getting Cole out there as many times and as often as possible is sensible, sure, but at some point there will be diminishing returns. The last starter to do the Games 1, 4, and 7 on short rest thing was Corey Kluber in 2016, and that’s when he was at his Cy Young peak. After Game 7, several Cubs hitters said Kluber was less sharp in Game 4 than Game 1, and even less sharp in Game 7 than Game 4.

Is it better to have Cole make three starts in the World Series, including the last two on short rest, or to use four starters on a normal schedule with Cole available out of the bullpen in Game 7? Basically, is Cole with the short rest penalty (whatever it is) enough of an upgrade over whichever one of Schmidt or Gil loses a start to make it worth it? It might be, sure. Remember, Cole skipped a start in July because he was worn down. It’s not a given he feels less fatigued than everyone else right now.

Joe asks: What’s the deal with Cody Poteet? When healthy, feel like he gave Yankees some good outings with strong peripherals. Is it as simple as “Stroman $$ = roster spot” bc I think Poteet is a better “mop up/long relief” guy.

Poteet is part of the “stay ready” group, the extra players who are working out and, well, staying ready in case the Yankees need them as injury replacements. I know for sure Poteet, Clayton Beeter, and Jahmai Jones are in that group, and I assume Carlos Narváez is as the third catcher. There are others. I’m just not sure who. Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch that Poteet (and Beeter) was considered when Ian Hamilton went down, though they ultimately went with Mark Leiter Jr. I think there’s a case to be made that Poteet is better use of a roster spot than Marcus Stroman, who never ever warmed up in the ALCS. If it comes down to that roster spot though, that the Yankees are kinda screwed either way. I don’t think Poteet vs. Stroman is the biggest deal. Either one would be the emergency long reliever and nothing more.

Steve asks: Would the Padres have taken Trevino instead of Higashioka in the Soto trade? If so, in hindsight wouldn't it have been better for the Yankees to hold on to Higgy?

It was not a matter of the Padres wanting Kyle Higashioka over Jose Trevino. The Yankees wanted to keep Trevino over Higashioka because he’s three years younger, grades out better defensively, and is further away from free agency. Higashioka had a really good season thanks entirely to his power:

• Higashioka: .220/.263/.476 (105 wRC+) with 17 HR and +1 DRS

• Trevino: .215/.288/.354 (83 wRC+) with 8 HR and +9 DRS

Higashioka took over as San Diego’s starter in the middle of the season and hit three homers in their seven postseason games. In hindsight, yeah, you’d rather have Higashioka over Trevino, though the Yankees got good work out of Austin Wells most of the year, and they are in the World Series. Kinda hard to complain about things now, right? I certainly wouldn’t have blown up the Juan Soto trade if the Padres insisted on Higashioka over Trevino (or vice versa).

Cory asks: You've answered this a handful of times in the past but now seems like a good time to look at the current roster. Game 7 of the World Series, bottom 9, 2 outs up 1, how would you rank the current roster in terms of confidence level with the ball being hit towards them. How enormous is the gap between Judge & the next player? 

I used to ponder this question – which Yankee do you want the ball hit to with the game on the line? – every so often and for the longest time the answer was Brett Gardner one, Mark Teixeira two, then everyone else. Now? Yeah, it’s Aaron Judge, even though the defensive stats didn’t love him this year. I’d rank the current Yankees in this order (I ignore the pitcher and catcher for this exercise):

1. CF Aaron Judge
2. LF Alex Verdugo
3. SS Anthony Volpe
(big gap)
4. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
(gap)
6. 1B Anthony Rizzo 
7. RF Juan Soto

Love Soto, he’s the man, but he’s not a good defender. Rizzo has looked shaky enough lately (and really all year) that I get nervous when the ball is hit his way. Weirdly, I feel good about Rizzo having to scoop a throw. Just not when a hard-hit grounder or line drive is hit his way. I could be talked into flipping Chisholm and Gleyber. Chisholm clearly has the physical tools. He’s just inexperienced at third.

I feel best about Judge just making the play and not making it interesting. Verdugo and Volpe are sure-handed enough, though we have seen Volpe botch routine plays at inopportune times. That's enough to bump him behind Verdugo for me. He's still well ahead of Jazz and Gleyber. That top three is pretty clear cut to me. The other four could almost go in any order.