October 12th, 2024: Guardians vs. Tigers, ALCS, Mailbag

The Yankees partied Thursday night in Kansas City, flew back to New York on Friday, and will hold a few workouts this weekend while awaiting their ALCS opponent. As much as I would enjoy beating the Astros in a revenge ALCS, I’m glad we don’t have to see their stupid faces this postseason. Let’s get to some miscellaneous stuff before we fully enter ALCS mode, shall we?

1. Early ALCS thoughts. We still don’t know who the Yankees will play in the ALCS, only that it’ll be the Guardians or Tigers, and that the series will begin Monday night at Yankee Stadium. Here are a few thoughts on the upcoming series before the Guardians and Tigers play Game 5.

Guardians vs. Tigers

There’s rain in the forecast Saturday night in Cleveland, so MLB moved Game 5 up from 8pm ET to 1pm ET. Maybe just postpone it entirely and make them play Sunday? Don’t take any chances MLB! For real though, moving the game up is the best way to ensure they play an uninterrupted nine innings in an elimination game. We’ll know the Yankees’ ALCS opponent in a few hours.

I don’t have a preference between the Guardians or Tigers. They’re very similar as bad offense/great run prevention teams, though Detroit finished the season much stronger – AL best 34-19 after July 31st while the Guardians went 27-27 – and they are a matchup nightmare with their pitching chaos, as manager A.J. Hinch calls it. They’re like the 2018-22 Rays with a rotation that is one ace (Tarik Skubal) and a series of bullpen games and openers, plus a platoon-heavy offense.

The Guardians are similar, except their ace (Tanner Bibee) is several notches below Skubal, and rookie manager Stephen Vogt is not as savvy as Hinch. Vogt got outfoxed by Hinch in ALDS Game 4. He made all his pinch-hitting moves early in Detroit’s bullpen game, then he had no more buttons to push in the late innings, and Hinch got all the matchups he wanted. Also, Cleveland can’t hit. It’s a bad offense:

April to June Guardians: .248/.319/.410 (108 wRC+) and 4.96 R/G
April to June Tigers: .229/.293/.368 (89 wRC+) and 4.06 R/G

July to September Guardians: .230/.296/.379 (92 wRC+) and 3.81 R/G 
July to September Tigers: .241/.306/.403 (102 wRC+) and 4.37 R/G

Postseason Guardians: .217/.270/.336 (71 wRC+) and 3.00 R/G
Postseason Tigers: .226/.317/.328 (88 wRC+) and 3.00 R/G

Cleveland started the season very well offensively, then went in the tank in July, and haven’t recovered. And really, April through June of this season is the outlier. July through September is more in line with what they’ve done the last 3-4 years. The Guardians have scored 12 runs in the ALDS and five of the 12 came in the first inning of Game 1. They’ve scored seven runs in 34 offensive innings since.

For all the grief Aaron Judge gets about his postseason performance (not unfairly), José Ramírez has been sneaky dreadful in October. He’s 2-for-14 (.143) with a homer in the ALDS and a .232/.287/.355 (68 wRC+) hitter in 36 career postseason games. How? If you built a hitter in a lab, he’d look a lot like Ramírez: switch-hitter with power from both sides who walks and doesn’t swing and miss much. He’s basically the perfect hitter, yet he’s been a poor postseason performer. Huh.

The Tigers are starting Skubal in Game 5 and that means he won’t be available to pitch on normal rest until Game 3 of the ALCS, and then not again until Game 7. Detroit’s best chance to win the ALCS is getting the likely Cy Young winner out there as often as possible, but the ALDS Game 5 start pushes Skubal back to ALCS Game 3. If you can win the ALCS in 4-6 games, you’ll only have to face him once. That’s huge.

Force me to pick one and I'll say give me the Guardians in the ALCS. The Tigers have been the better team for almost four months now, they have the best pitcher in baseball, and they get the most out of their patchwork roster. The Guardians were the better team over 162 games but I think the Tigers are better right now. Plus they played the Yankees much tougher than Cleveland during the regular season. Yeah, give me the Guardians in the ALCS. Gonna be a pain in the ass opponent either way. 

Potential roster changes for ALCS

The ALCS has the usual 2-3-2 format with off-days after Game 2 and Game 5. The best-of-seven ALCS has one fewer off-day than the best-of-five ALDS. Weird schedule. Anyway, with the longer series and the potential for three games in three days in the middle, I expect the Yankees to drop a position player and add a 12th pitcher to the roster. They could go 13 pitches, though that seems excessive. A 12th pitcher for sure though.

You need a fourth starter in the ALCS and Aaron Boone indicated a few days ago Luis Gil will be that fourth starter. My guess is then that Marcus Stroman is added to the roster over Clayton Beeter and Mark Leiter Jr. because Stroman can give length and be the long man you may need in a longer series. You can’t really expect quality innings from Beeter, Leiter, or Stroman. Stroman can give you the most innings though. I bet he’s back on the roster for the ALCS. (Stroman threw live BP the other day. He’s stayed ready.)

Who do the Yankees drop to add Stroman? There are four candidates: Jasson Domínguez, Duke Ellis, Trent Grisham, and Ben Rice. Jon Berti and Oswald Cabrera were so good during the ALDS (.438 OBP and surprisingly nimble defense) that the Yankees may not feel the need to carry Rice as the third string first baseman. My hunch is they would use Domínguez as a pinch-hitter before Rice too, so I’m not sure what reason there is to keep Rice on the ALCS roster. What does he bring to the table?

The same applies to Grisham, right? He has a narrow path to playing time in the postseason. He would come in to play center after Aaron Judge or Juan Soto are removed for a pinch-runner, and that’s it. Domínguez can do that too. I don’t think the Yankees need Domínguez and Grisham, especially since they could always put Cabrera (and Berti too) in the outfield in an emergency. Ellis is more likely to make an impact as a high leverage pinch-runner than Grisham or Rice as the 26th guy on the roster.

The other question is Anthony Rizzo. The Yankees haven’t said much about his recovery the last few days because they haven’t been asked about him. Berti and Cabrera were so good against the Royals that I kinda don’t want Rizzo back? I don’t want him to be hurt, don’t get me wrong, I’m just not sure he gives the Yankees a better chance to win over Berti/Cabrera given how limp his bat has been the last 14 months or so. We’ll get a Rizzo update soon. Maybe later today.

I fully expect a 12th pitcher to be added to the roster. I think it’ll be Stroman, but if it’s Beeter or Leiter, then it’s Beeter or Leiter. Who the Yankees remove from the roster is a bigger mystery. I’d drop Rice, though I would not be the least bit surprised if Domínguez, Ellis, or Grisham comes off. As for Rizzo, we’ll see. Berti and Cabrera did nice work in the ALDS. It was the most production the Yankees have gotten from first base in weeks. Maybe Rizzo and Stroman on with Grisham and Rice off? Hmmm.

ALCS rotation plan

The Yankees have not yet announced their Game 1 starter, which is not unusual so soon after a clincher. They’ll make it official maybe later today but definitely by the end of the day Sunday. Gerrit Cole can start Game 2 on normal rest. Game 1 will either be Carlos Rodón on extra rest or Clarke Schmidt on normal rest. Here are the two possible ALCS rotations (days of rest in parentheses):

Gil is the clear fourth starter given what he looked like at the end of the regular season. You only want him making one start in a best-of-seven if at all possible, and it is possible. He’ll start Game 4 and that’s it. The Yankees won’t start Gil in Game 1 even though it’s been a while since he last pitched. You put your best available out there and it's not him. This is where not having Nestor Cortes hurts. He’d be a really nice backup plan/alternative to Gil. Sucks.

The opponent figures to play a role in the Game 1 starter decision. The Guardians were significantly better than the Tigers against lefties in August and September (115 wRC+ vs. 82 wRC+) while the Tigers had the edge against righties (105 wRC+ vs. 91 wRC+). It would also make sense to get the home run prone Rodón out of Yankee Stadium, and let him pitch in the more pitcher friendly AL Central ballpark, whichever one it is.

My guess is the Yankees will default to Rodón in Game 1, but if the Guardians advance, it really should be Schmidt. Cleveland hammers lefties and you can push Rodón out of Yankee Stadium (116 HR park factor per Statcast) to Progressive Field (86 HR park factor). Honestly, it might be better to go with Schmidt in Game 1 no matter what. We’ll see. We’ll see we’ll see we’ll see.

Miscellany

I just want to give Anthony Volpe some more praise after the ALDS. He went 3-for-12 with four walks and one strikeout in the series, stung the ball consistently – Volpe had six 100 mph batted balls in the ALDS (plus one at 99.4 mph) after having six 100 mph batted balls in his final 21 regular season games – and took really good at-bats. He’s got an 8.8% chase rate (!) in October after a higher than league average 29.2% during the regular season. That won’t last, 8.8% is unsustainably low, but Volpe was the best shortstop on the field in the ALDS. I hope it continues in the ALCS … According to Umpire Scorecards, the Yankees were +2.07 runs on ball/strike calls during the ALDS, which is enormous. I saw some grumbling about this from Royals fans, and I get it, but isn’t it as simple as:

1. Patrick Bailey: +16 framing runs per Statcast
2. Cal Raleigh: +13
3. Austin Wells: +12
…
39. Salvador Perez: -2

After Diamondbacks vs. Rangers last year, MLB could really use a big ticket World Series. If they’re rigging it for the Yankees, I hope they do better in the ALCS than a few ball/strike calls and ruling Jazz Chisholm Jr. safe on a stolen base so Alex Verdugo can hit with a runner on second and two outs … Speaking of catchers, Wells went 2-for-16 with six strikeouts in the ALDS, even with his productive Game 1. Please get him out of the cleanup spot. Put Giancarlo Stanton there, move Wells down. The bat has been too quiet for too long to continue sandwiching Wells between Judge and Stanton … And finally, the Yankees drew “only” five walks in Game 4 against the Royals. The Yankees finished the ALDS with 28 strikeouts and 27 walks (17.9 K% and 17.3 BB%). The Royals finished with 34 strikeouts and seven walks (23.6 K% and 4.9 BB%). In a series in which neither team hit for average or power, the walks were the difference. The Yankees remained disciplined and stayed in the strike zone, Kansas City's hitters didn't, and at times their pitchers appeared unnerved.

2. Hurricane Milton update. Per Bryan Hoch and Brendan Kuty, George M. Steinbrenner Field and the minor league complex in Tampa escaped the storm with only minor damage. The foul poles and some fences were knocked down, and the batter’s eye at the minor league complex got ripped up, and that’s about it. No structural or flood damage. It’s only a bunch of baseball fields, certainly not the biggest concern in the grand scheme of things, but the Tampa complex should be ready to go for Spring Training.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Richard asks: Eduardo Perez on MLB Network Radio suggested that Judge’s kryptonite is changeups. This is the first time that I have heard this analysis. Can you provide some data to support or refute this claim?

Aaron Judge has historically had less success against offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters) than fastballs and breaking balls, yes. And by “less success” I mean he’s merely been very good against offspeed pitches rather than superhuman. Here are the last three years (i.e. when Judge became this):

Judge just had his best season against offspeed pitches: .262 AVG and .723 SLG (.486 xwOBA). Go back to 2022 and it was a .198 AVG and .374 SLG (.338 xwOBA) against offspeed pitches. He was so good that season even though he was league average-ish against changeups and splitters. Improving against offspeed pitches is one way Judge has continued to level up. He’s closing that weakness.

Perez is correct in that offspeed pitches are the best way to get Judge out, but he’s still an excellent hitter against them relative to the league average. That was especially true this season. By Statcast’s run values, Judge was the best hitter in baseball against four-seamers, sinkers, and sweepers in 2024. He was merely the 12th best against changeups and fifth best against splitters. So yes, technically offspeed pitches are Judge’s kryptonite, but it’s not like he’s noncompetitive against them.

Jon asks: Luke Weaver. He's become critical. Things have worked out but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. I was worried when Boone brought him into Game 3. I was worried that 5 outs in Game 4 would be too many. He keeps proving me wrong, and I have no expectation of the second coming of Mariano Rivera, but - how confident are you with Luke Weaver as the Yankees closer and should Boone be using him any differently than he has been this series?

Very confident. Excellent fastball, elite changeup, usable third pitch (cutter), throws strikes, hasn’t given us any reason to think he’ll scare in big moments. If anything, Weaver has leveled up since moving into the closer’s role, and really risen to the occasion. Including the ALDS, Weaver has struck out 52.7% of batters faced since Clay Holmes was demoted. He’s been unreal of late. I trust Weaver implicitly.

As far as using him differently, the only thing I would say is I hope Aaron Boone and the Yankees are open to using Weaver in the seventh or eighth inning if a big moment arises rather than holding him back for the ninth. That said, Holmes has been nails of late, and so has Tommy Kahnle. Seems like the bullpen is in a good place right now. Maybe the best place it’s been all year. Weaver’s been awesome.

James asks: Not a directly Yankee related question. With the roof now gone on Tropicana Field, what do you think the future of the Rays will be? I've read they were on the list of teams that could relocate before the storm and stadium damage. So how do you think it plays out?

Sam Blum (subs. req’d) spoke to the engineers who designed Tropicana Field and they said the Teflon roof fabric has a service life of about 25 years, and it was 34 years old. Seems like the Rays were hoping the roof would hold up these last few years before their new stadium opens in 2028. So much for that. From Blum (subs. req’d):

As for how long it would take to repair Tropicana Field’s roof, (engineer David) Campbell said it remains too early to give a specific timeline, mostly because it would depend on whether the primary structure of the venue sustained any significant damage. While he said the strut and cable networks “appear to be fine,” a more thorough condition assessment would be required to determine an accurate schedule for repair.

…

Campbell was a part of the team that constructed the roof nearly four decades ago. He clarified that while there were no “life safety concerns” related to keeping the aging fabric, the wear and tear through the years would make it more susceptible to significant damage in a high wind event.

It took seven months to repair the Metrodome roof after it collapsed during a snowstorm in 2011. That’s seven months from the date of the collapse to the day the repairs were completed. That’s the best point of reference we have for something like this, and if it takes seven months to repair the Trop, the repairs will bleed into April and the regular season. (The Yankees have a four-game series in Tampa from April 17-20.)

The Trop is an indoor facility, there’s no drainage system, plus the Rays couldn’t play there while the roof is being repaired even if they wanted to. The construction project will be too significant and everything will be hovering over the field. Not sure it’s feasible to repair the roof above while playing games and protecting everything down below. If the Trop isn’t ready for Opening Day, the Rays will have to play elsewhere. 

The Blue Jays played their April and May home games at their Spring Training park during the pandemic in 2021, and that’s the best course of action for MLB and Tampa. April and May is not yet peak Florida swamp weather. The weather is still mild enough to play outdoors. Sharing a stadium with, say, the Braves or Marlins would be a logistical nightmare, and relocating to the old ballpark in Arlington would be a last resort, I assume.

Marc Topkin says Tampa’s Spring Training complex in Port Charlotte came through the storm okay. There is recent precedent for playing early season regular season games at a Spring Training park in Florida, and that seems like the easiest solution. Path of least resistance and all that. Ultimately, MLB and the Rays won’t know what’s what with the Trop until they get in there and the damage is fully assessed. 

Steve asks: I know it’s playoff baseball time and you don’t have the bandwidth to answer questions… Which I totally get! But now that the diamondbacks are eliminated, when was the last time both teams that were in the previous World Series didn’t make the following years playoffs? From looking it up really quick it seems like the 2006 World Series was the Tigers versus Cardinals and neither of them made it the following year. But considering that was almost 20 years ago and we have all the new playoff changes, how do you feel about that? Does that just mean parity is officially amongst us and this is how it with the NFL? Only the top teams will make it every year and then it’s a crapshoot? I miss the days of the smaller amount of playoff teams, but I know that’s a pipe dream. Anyway, thought I’d ask your thoughts since it’s kind of ridiculous you can make the World Series one year and not the playoffs the next.

Steve’s correct, the Cardinals and Tigers in 2007 were the last defending pennant winners to both miss the postseason the following year before the D’Backs and Rangers this year. This should happen less often moving forward. More postseason spots equals a better chance to make it back the next year. Remember, the 2023 D’Backs and Rangers were not powerhouses. Arizona won 84 games a year ago! The Rangers didn’t clinch until Game 161. They were the epitome of a “just get in and you can get hot” team.

The postseason field is as big as it is because MLB values the extra revenue over putting only the very best teams in the postseason. Also, the 84-win D’Backs beating the 90-win Phillies four times in seven games, like they did in the NLCS last year, is just the way it goes sometimes in this game. Sometimes we can get a little too lost in the weeds and forget (or not accept) the postseason is a chaos machine. It’s not entirely a crapshoot, only mostly. No sport is more subject to randomness in the playoffs. 

The larger postseason field creates more opportunities for upsets. It doesn’t make an upset more likely, it only means more of them will happen, if that makes sense. I think the postseason field is too big. The fact this Tigers team, with one starting pitcher and a patchwork offense, is one win away from the ALCS kinda sucks! Overall, it’s probably in MLB’s best interests to make it easier for teams like Tigers and Royals to contend. I do miss the days of the very best teams being the last ones standing though.

(The mailbag is not a priority in the postseason but I’ll get to any questions when I can. Send your requests to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)