Thoughts after Game 3 of the 2024 ALDS

The Yankees have two chances to win one game to advance to their fourth ALCS in the last eight years. A late-inning homer and more excellent bullpen work gave the Yankees a 3-2 win over the Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday night. Since divisional play began in 1995, the winner of Game 3 in a best-of-five series tied at 1-1 has won 45 of 62 series, or 73%. Good omen, that is, but the series ain’t over. Here are a few thoughts on the Game 3 win.

Game 4 on Thursday: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha (8pm ET on TBS, Max, TruTV)

1. Postseason G. An idiot said this:

I don’t think the Yankees should put Jasson Domínguez at DH over Giancarlo Stanton, but I’m slowly coming around on the idea. Giancarlo is 12-for-73 (.164) with a 34.1 K% in his last 21 games dating back to the regular season, and that covers more than a month now. He hasn’t looked especially comfortable at the plate (and there’s the lack of speed). I’m not there yet, Stanton can still flip the game with a swing at any time, but it’s at least a thought that has popped into my head these last two games.

In my defense, I didn’t say I wanted Stanton out of the lineup, only that replacing him had crossed my mind. At least I got the "Stanton can still flip the game with a swing at any time" part right. Big G provided the big hit in Game 3, or really the two big hits. He doubled in the game’s first run and also won it with his eighth inning dinger (videos). It’s the first go-ahead homer in the eighth inning or later of a postseason game by a Yankee since the Raul Ibañez game in 2012.

"He's a killer,” Aaron Boone said about Stanton after Game 3. “I admire how well he's able to focus in these big moments."

Stanton went 3-for-5 with a double and a homer and a stolen base (!) in Game 3. I mean, when Stanton steals a base, you have to win, right? It was his first stolen base since Aug. 3rd, 2020, against the Phillies. The Yankees didn’t bring him around to score, but still, Giancarlo stole a base. I hope this means the Royals will make a few pickoff throws the next time he’s on first base. That would be a hoot. 

“Probably better than the homer, to be honest,” Stanton said about the way his teammates reacted to the stolen base. “No, it was good. It was an opportunity again that I could take, and I did.”

Stanton went 3-for-5 in Game 3 and the rest of the Yankees went 1-for-25 (.040). I’ve run the numbers and that’s bad. The Yankees are up 2-1 in the ALDS, but this is a problem:

Austin Wells had a real nice Game 1, twice driving in the game-tying run (once on a bases loaded walk and once with a single), but he is 1-for-9 with four strikeouts in the last two games, and he’s struggled badly since the end of August. The Yankees really should bump Wells down the lineup and move Stanton right behind Aaron Judge, and bunch the three big power threats together.

As for Judge, he went 0-for-4 with a walk and a strikeout in Game 3, and is 1-for-11 with three walks and five strikeouts in the series. He did have three pretty good rips Wednesday though: 114.4 mph liner right at Bobby Witt Jr., a fly ball to the warning track in left field, and a fly ball just in front of the warning track in center. Also, the strikeout came on a check swing that looked like it should have been ball four to me:

The swings and contact were more Judgian, and he saw 22 pitches in five plate appearances, but the end result was an 0-for-4. "He's definitely gonna do damage. It'll come when we need him most,” Stanton said after Game 4. I hope so. It’s one thing to wait out a slump like we did in April. It’s another to do in a short postseason. Having a 2-1 series lead with Judge not doing much is a minor miracle.

With the 3-4 hitters not doing much yet, others have had to pick up the slack. In Game 1, it was fan favorite Alex Verdugo. In Game 2, it was no one, and the Yankees lost. In Game 3, it was Stanton, a .266/.331/.633 (141 wRC+) career postseason hitter with 12 homers in 30 games. It doesn’t happen as frequently as it did during his prime, but Giancarlo still puts the Yankees on his back now and then, and he did it in Game 3.

"Yeah, we need to wrap it up tomorrow,” Stanton said. “No wiggle room and we've got to get it done."

2. So many walks. So, so many walks. The Yankees drew nine more walks in Game 3. They’ve walked 22 times in the three games. The Yankees haven’t done much hitting with men on base – 10-for-56 (.179) with runners on in the three games – but they are getting men on base. Lots of them. The Yankees have a .356 OBP in the ALDS. Keep getting men on and the runs will come, right? I hope so.

The approach against Seth Lugo – 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 2 K for the former Met – was so good. He needed 87 pitches to get through five innings and eight of the 21 batters he faced saw at least five pitches. Five saw at least six pitches. Also, only four swings and misses. That’s it. Four. There were some loud sounds and long distances against Lugo. What a great job making him work.

(Hit distance is how far the ball traveled before it hit the ground or was caught, not necessarily how far it traveled before it came to a stop.)

“The efficiency of those first couple innings was great,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said about Lugo. “They started to make him work a little bit in the third and then in the fifth again. But his stuff was good. Just kind of, I don't know if they were just off the plate or whatever, just started to fall behind a little bit in the third and fourth and the pitch count got up and he had to work pretty hard there.”

Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera in particular had fantastic at-bats in Game 3. They reached base six times between them – Cabrera drew threw walks, Volpe had a single and two walks – and that’s two kids who had less than stellar regular seasons at the plate stepping up in October. Look at the pitches Volpe swung at in Game 3. He’s staying in the zone and not expanding:

I thought Aaron Boone should have pinch-hit Jasson Domínguez or Ben Rice for Cabrera when he came to the plate with runners on first and second and two outs in the sixth (Cabrera flew out), but he didn’t, and in the end it was fine. The Yankees won and Cabrera reached base later in the game. Cabrera, Volpe, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres are all sporting .400+ OBPs in the series. That’ll work.

Also, what was up with that foul call on Gleyber’s would-be bloop double in the third inning? The extra umpire they stick down the foul line in the postseason was looking right it:

It sure looked like the ball landed on the line, but the call on the field was foul, and the replay center in New York couldn’t find conclusive evidence it was fair. Cabrera was on first and running with two outs. He was going to score on a fair ball. I don’t want to make a big deal about this because I hate blaming umpires, but the Yankees got jobbed there. Maybe Jazz Chisholm Jr. is right. Maybe the Royals are lucky.

At some point Judge has to hit and at some point the Yankees need to cash in all these runners. The other team (probably) won’t average more than seven walks a game all postseason. I’m very happy with the way the Yankees are digging in and battling, including against Lugo in Game 3. On paper, the Royals have the starting pitching advantage this series, but on the scoreboard, the Yankees are up 2-1 in the series. 

“That's who we are. That's our DNA. That's what we try to do,” Boone said about his team grinding out at-bats. “From Day 1 in Spring Training, that's what we talk about, and these guys go out and live that. It's like, we haven't really broke through in a huge way yet, but we're giving ourselves a lot of opportunities against a really good pitching staff … You're not always going to get a hit, you're not always going to get a result, but I feel like the quality of the at-bat has been there."

3. Schmidt got burned by the bottom of the lineup. The bottom of the lineup thing is getting annoying. Bobby Witt Jr. finally got on the board with a ground ball single in Game 3. He’s 1-for-13 in the ALDS. Vinnie Pasquantino is still hitless in the series. Sal Perez hasn’t done much outside his solo homer off Carlos Rodón in Game 2. The Yankees have kept the middle of Kansas City’s order in check. But the bottom of the order? Nope.

Clarke Schmidt started Game 3 very well, retiring 13 of the first 16 batters he faced. He’d thrown only 58 pitches too. Seemed like he’d get the Yankees into the sixth inning at least. Instead, things unraveled with two outs in the fifth. Anthony Volpe threw away Adam Frazier’s ground ball, then Schmidt had trouble with the bottom of the lineup:

• No. 9 hitter Kyle Isbel went from a 1-2 count to a full count to slashing a run-scoring double down the left field line.

• No. 1 hitter Michael Massey went from 0-2 to 2-2 to a run-scoring triple beyond the reach of a diving Juan Soto in right.

The No. 8 hitter put a ball on the ground, but the Yankees couldn’t turn it into an out. Schmidt got ahead 1-2 on the No. 9 hitter – the No. 9 hitter who slashed .192/.269/.290 in two-strike counts during the regular season – and then left a cutter up, and allowed the two-out, two-strike extra-base hit. Massey’s the leadoff hitter, not a bottom of the order guy, but still. You have to get him out to prevent the inning from getting to Witt. Didn't happen though.

“If you give them an inch, they'll take a mile,” Schmidt said. “… I mean, if you look at the inning, it's like a 67 mph single. I don't know how Isbel kept that ball down the line (fair), and then the Massey hit. It's just playoff baseball is what it really boils down to. But really good game plan tonight. And I think there's a lot to be said about coming out hot and trying to put up zeros early. It gives your team a chance to win. Really happy with coming away with a win.”

By and large, the Yankees have done great work holding down Witt, Pasquantino, and Perez. It’s the Isbels and Masseys and Garrett Hampsons that have made this series as close as it's been. The ALDS has been about the supporting casts, right? Aaron Judge and Austin Wells have been mostly quiet, ditto Witt and Pasquantino. The players around the big names have decided Games 1, 2, and 3.

Schmidt got yanked after the Massey triple – that inning got away in the blink of an eye – and my goodness, the bullpen has been so good this series. All summer we pulled our hair out over the blown saves and the lack of strikeouts, but so far in the ALDS, these guys have been nails. Schmidt retired 13 of 16 to start the game and Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Luke Weaver retired 13 of 16 to end the game.

The bullpen through three ALDS games: 13.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R (unearned), 4 BB, 12 K. Holmes has thrown four scoreless innings in three games and Weaver, even with that little eighth inning jam in Game 3, has been lights out. The bullpen’s been really great picking up three starters who turned in less than stellar outings, and twice didn’t complete five innings. October is a clear slate and the relief crew has stepped up big.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees didn’t give Gerrit Cole a $324M contract to shut down the Blue Jays in May. They gave him that contract to go on the road and win a game that can send you to the ALCS. Cole had a rough start in Game 1. The ace being the ace in Game 4 would be welcome. I want no part of Cole Ragans in a win or go home Game 5 … Anthony Volpe’s eighth inning diving catch (video) was such a massive swing. If that gets down, the Royals have runners on the corners with one out. Instead, it was a man on first with two outs. The next batter got a hit too, so yeah, big catch there. Throwing away that infield single to open the door in the fifth inning sucked, but Volpe’s been really good both at the plate and in the field in the ALDS … How do you think it feels for Royals fans to watch former Royal Luke Weaver dominate the Royals? Weaver got the five-out save on only 20 pitches in Game 3, and he even ran into a little trouble. With that pitch count, there’s no reason to think he won’t be available in Game 4. Maybe not for five outs again, but if the Yankees have a lead in the late innings, I reckon he’ll be out there again … And finally, we should all root for a Guardians win Thursday and thus a Game 5 in the other ALDS. That would force the Guards and Tigers to play another game, first and foremost, and also force Detroit to burn Tarik Skubal. He’s lined up to start Game 5 of the ALDS or Game 1 of the ALCS. The Yankees have to handle their business, of course, but we fans are free to look ahead and root for optimal outcomes. Go Cleveland. Big fan of midges here.

5. On a serious note. Brian Cashman said Wednesday that the Yankees got their “stay ready” group, the extra players who are working out in case they’re needed at some point in the postseason, out of Tampa a few days ago ahead of Hurricane Milton. They’re in New York now. George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa is being used as a shelter for team employees and their families. I hope everyone in the storm’s path is doing okay. Stay safe, folks. (The Tropicana Field roof got ripped to shreds. The ballpark was being used as a staging area for first responders. City officials say everyone is accounted for and there are no injuries, thankfully.)