Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2024 ALDS

The Yankees will finally play another baseball game tonight. Between the Wild Card Series bye and all the ALDS off-days, they’ve played two games in the last nine days. This is me complaining as a fan who wants to watch the Yankees play baseball. I’m not saying all this time off puts the Yankees at a disadvantage. The lower seed won three of the four Wild Card Series. I don’t want none of that best-of-three smoke. I just want to watch the Yankees, man. Feels like they’re on an NFL schedule.

Anyway, the ALDS shifts to Kauffman Stadium for Games 3 and 4. They will be the first postseason games in Kansas City since their 2015 World Series run, so I’m guessing the crowd will be nuts (not that TBS will let anyone at home hear it). Here are the updated ALDS ZiPS odds:

Rather than fly out immediately after Game 2, the Yankees stayed in New York and worked out at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday (Marcus Stroman threw live BP, I know that much), then traveled to Kansas City. The next time the Yankees play in the Bronx will either be ALDS Game 5 on Saturday, ALCS Game 1 on Monday, or Opening Day on March 27th, 2025. Here are a few quick thoughts before Game 3.

1. A good start needed from Schmidt. Two games into the ALDS, Gerrit Cole had the best performance among the four starting pitchers, and that’s not surprising. What is surprising is Cole wasn’t all that good – 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 K – and the other three starters were somehow worse. Cole Ragans, Carlos Rodón, and Michael Wacha all failed to record an out in the fifth inning.

“The best I can tell you is I just feel like he's the right guy for that game,” Aaron Boone said about going with Schmidt over Luis Gil in Game 3. “I have a lot of confidence in what both bring to the table, and hopefully if we're able to move on, then Luis is obviously going to find himself back in the rotation as well if you move on in this thing. But right now I think best that he plays a role in the pen for us, and I feel like Clarke is in a spot to where he's ready to go for Game 3.”

I agree with the decision to start Schmidt in Game 3 – Gil had a terrific season, but he stumbled at the end and his velocity dipped as his workload mounted – and now the Yankees need him to give them something neither team has gotten yet: a good, quality start. It feels like the first team to get a good start – two runs in six innings, something like that – will take control of the series. The sooner the Yankees get it, the better.

One thing Schmidt will have going for him Wednesday is the element of surprise. He didn’t face the Royals this season. He was on the injured list when the Yankees went to Kansas City in June, and he didn’t line up to start when they were in New York in September. No one on the Royals has even 10 plate appearances against Schmidt, and none have seen the 2024 version of Schmidt, the best version of him (to date).

In theory, Schmidt matches up well against the Royals, who are one of the most chase happy teams in the league. They had a 30.2% chase rate during the regular season, seventh highest in baseball and a rounding error away from being fourth, and the guys on their ALDS roster combined for a 30.8% chase rate. They've chased at 32.3% in their four postseason games. The Royals are not very disciplined. It works for them, but they’re not.

Schmidt’s whole thing is spin. Sweepers away, curveballs down, and enough sinkers in the zone to keep hitters honest. Execute those breaking balls in the shadows of the zone and the Royals will swing, and pitches in those locations are difficult to drive even if you do make contact. These are the key pitches:

Execute there and Schmidt should be okay. And if the Royals slap those balls for hits, then what can you do. Schmidt’s stuff is vicious. When he gets beat, it’s usually because he makes mistakes and leaves spinners in the middle of the plate. The Royals may not hit those mistakes over the wall, but they will hit them. Live on the edges and they’ll hack, and that’s the best way to limit damage.

There’s no off-day between Games 3 and 4 (crazy, I know), so running to the bullpen in the fourth or fifth inning Wednesday is not something either team wants to do. If you have to do it, then you do it, but it could put you in a bind for Game 4. Someone has to have a good start eventually and the team that gets that good start will have the edge in the series. The Yankees are trusting Schmidt to be that guy in Game 3.

“This is every kid's dream to be able to start a playoff game for the New York Yankees, and to be able to have this opportunity is something that I don't take lightly,” Schmidt said Tuesday. “… Very much looking forward to it and kind of trying to seize the moment. Just want to win a ballgame really. I think that's what it comes down to.”

2. Solving Lugo. Seth Lugo was one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, one so good that he has front offices searching for new ways to evaluate pitchers (I mentioned the idea of “rainbow” pitchers in last week’s mailbag). He’s going to finish top five in the Cy Young voting. Maybe top three? On Sept. 10th, Lugo had the best start by any pitcher against the Yankees in 2024: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K.

“Hopefully that serves us well, that familiarity,” Aaron Boone said Tuesday. “We've seen him a couple times this year. We had a little bit of success with him when we were in Kansas City in June, but yeah, I thought his last outing against us here was outstanding … Hopefully that serves us well, having that familiarity of just seeing him, but he certainly poses a challenge.”

The Yankees did beat Lugo earlier this season. They got to him for four runs in seven innings on June 10th, though it wasn’t a rousing offensive performance. All eight hits against Lugo were singles and the average exit velocity on the 23 balls in play he allowed was 82.0 mph. That was the game the Yankees sac bunted three times. By and large, Lugo was awfully tough against the Yankees in two starts this year.

I don’t have the answer to the “how do you solve Lugo?” question. That’s on the guys in the dugout and the front office to figure out, and really, how do you solve a guy who regularly features this pitch mix?

That is Lugo’s Sept. 10th start against the Yankees. The splitter is his least used pitch at 2.6% but he did start using it more later in the season. Lugo has nine pitches – the curve, slurve, slider, and sweeper all have different movement profiles, they’re distinct pitches – and he shows all nine to righties and lefties. He forces hitters to cover a wide velocity range (mid-70s to mid-90s) with movement in every direction. He’s tough, man.

Lugo’s bread and butter are his four-seamer and high spin curveball (high spin as in 3,284 rpm on average in 2024). Those are his moment of truth pitches. When he struggles, it’s usually because he goes too deep into the well and either hangs a slider or an offspeed pitch, or puts himself in bad counts by trying to live on the corners with all nine pitches. Lugo is so unpredictable he can live in the zone and survive on deception.

The Yankees worked Cole Ragans hard in Game 2. He needed 87 pitches to get 12 outs and that guy had a 3.14 ERA (3.00 FIP) with 29.3 K% in 2024. He’s great and the Yankees wore him down. The Big Hit with men on base, that multi-run extra-base hit that really puts a dent in the scoreboard, hasn’t come yet, but the Yankees made Kansas City’s pitchers work hard in Games 1 and 2. The at-bats are tough.

That will have to continue to beat Lugo and I reckon he’s about as difficult to grind down as any pitcher in the game just because he has so many weapons. Do you sit breaking ball? I mean, he does throw his four-seamer and sinker a combined 42.5% of the time. I dunno, man. What I do know is Clarke Schmidt has to at least match Lugo and turn it into a battle of the bullpens, and that ain’t gonna be easy.

3. The bad little things keep adding up. The Yankees have held Kansas City’s 2-3-4 hitters – Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Sal Perez – to a combined 2-for-27 (.074) with 11 strikeouts in the ALDS. Other than Perez’s solo homer in Game 2, the Yankees have done a great job keeping the middle of the order in check. This is what’s killed them two games into the series:

• Garrett Hampson: 3-for-3 with 1 BB (.230/.275/.300 and 59 wRC+ in 2024)

• Maikel Garcia: 5-for-9 (69 wRC+ was dead last among qualified hitters)

• Yuli Gurriel: 2-for-6 with 2 BB (was in Triple-A until September 1st)

Those three guys combined to hit .232/.284/.322 (68 wRC+) in almost 1,000 plate appearances during the regular season, and now they’re 10-for-18 with three walks in the ALDS. Annoying. And I get it, bad hitters have good games all the time, and I’m sure Royals fans were annoyed about getting beat by Alex Verdugo in Game 1, but COME ON. If Witt beats you, fine. But Garrett Hampson?

Also, lost in Carlos Rodón’s fourth inning meltdown in Game 2 was the Yankees giving away second base three times in that inning. It bit them every single time:

• Rodón spiked a slider, allowing Gurriel to take second. He then scored on Tommy Pham’s single.

• Pham stole second after Rodón didn’t check him at first on four straight pitches (videos). He scored on Hampson’s single.

• Hampson took second on his single because Jazz Chisholm Jr. wasn’t in position to cut off the throw from Verdugo (video). He scored on Garcia’s single.

Rodón’s the primary culprit. He couldn’t put Gurriel, Pham, or Hampson away in two-strike counts to limit the damage. But the Yankees kept giving the Royals an extra 90 feet, and it bit them. Then there’s Anthony Volpe throwing a potential inning-ending double play ball into right field in Game 1, leading to two runs. There’s Giancarlo Stanton’s lack of speed showing up at the worst possible times. So on and so forth.

All these bad little things – getting beat by Garrett Hampson, the cutoff man not being in position, botching a double play, no speed, etc. – add up and close the talent gap on the field. High-end talent tends to win out and overcome those mistakes during the long 162-game season, but in a short postseason series, they can send you home. It’s like the Yankees play on Hard Mode every night. Is one mistake-free game too much to ask? It could be the difference in the ALDS.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Obvious statement is obvious: The Yankees need more from Aaron Judge. He is 1-for-7 with an infield single, two walks, and four strikeouts in the ALDS. In both Games 1 and 2, he batted with two runners on and no outs in the first innings, and struck out both times. Those were opportunities to take control of the game early, and the likely AL MVP didn’t capitalize. Judge has hit .143/.221/.338 (53 wRC+) in 19 postseason games since 2020. We all love the guy, but if he doesn’t hit in October, the Yankees aren’t going very far, and he hasn’t hit in October since before the pandemic … Runners went 5-for-10 stealing bases against Seth Lugo during the regular season and he did not allow a single steal in his final 14 starts (15 including the Wild Card Series). I don’t think the Yankees should shut down the running game though. They’re 2-for-2 stealing bases in the series – Jazz Chisholm Jr. stole second ahead of Alex Verdugo’s game-winning single in Game 1, and Anthony Volpe stole second in the second inning in Game 2, but was stranded – and Sal Perez is almost a perfectly average thrower based on Statcast’s measurements. Don’t be reckless, but if an opportunity arises for Chisholm or Volpe (or Jon Berti?) to test Lugo and Perez, do it. Don’t shut down the running game just because Lugo had a good regular season holding runners … And finally, I don’t think the Yankees should put Jasson Domínguez at DH over Giancarlo Stanton, but I’m slowly coming around on the idea. Giancarlo is 12-for-73 (.164) with a 34.1 K% in his last 21 games dating back to the regular season, and that covers more than a month now. He hasn’t looked especially comfortable at the plate (and there’s the lack of speed). I’m not there yet, Stanton can still flip the game with a swing at any time, but it’s at least a thought that has popped into my head these last two games.