October 4th, 2024: ALDS Roster, X-Factors, Mailbag

Last week I answered a mailbag question about both teams celebrating postseason clinchers after a game, and noted it hadn’t ever happened. Then, sure enough, it happened Monday. The Braves and Mets split Monday’s doubleheader and each punched their ticket to the postseason. They didn’t just celebrate simultaneously in the two clubhouses, they celebrated together on the field! That is, uh, unusual.

Anyway, the Royals swept the Orioles in Baltimore in the Wild Card Series earlier this week, so it will be Yankees vs. Royals in the ALDS beginning Saturday. The Royals scored three runs in two games and swept the series. The O’s have lost 10 consecutive postseason games dating back to 2014. Sucks to suck. Here are the early ALDS details:

• Game 1 on Saturday: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha (6:30pm ET on TBS, Max)

• Sunday: off-day

• Game 2 on Monday: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Cole Ragans (7:30pm ET on TBS, Max, TruTv)

MLB has not yet announced the start times for the rest of the series and it sounds like the Yankees won’t decide on their Game 3 starter until after Games 1 and 2. Basically, Clarke Schmidt will be ready to pitch in relief, and if he’s not used in Game 1 or 2, he’ll start Game 3. That’s just me reading between the lines and speculating though. That’s not the stated plan. The Royals will presumably go with Seth Lugo in Game 3.

The Royals swept the Orioles and the Tiger swept the Astros. Houston’s season ended the way it started, by getting swept at home. As good as they were this season – they went 76-49 in their last 125 games, the best record in baseball – the Astros are no longer the powerhouse they were the last seven years. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, et al, are still around, but the rest of the roster is lacking.

Baltimore, I dunno what happened there. They collectively had a deer in the headlights look against Kansas City (wtf was this Adley?). The Astros won the World Series in their second postseason trip out of their rebuild. So did the Cubs. The Orioles are still looking for their first postseason win with this group. The honeymoon is over. They’re no longer the fun, upstart team. They’re the team that no-shows in October.

(Could you imagine being an Orioles fan and sitting through so much awful baseball during the rebuild, and then going into 2025 without even a single postseason win to show for it?)

The Royals and Tigers swept the Wild Card Series and the Guardians had the other Wild Card Series bye. If the Yankees can’t win the pennant when their competition is three AL Central teams, then it’s time to blow it up, fire everyone, sell the team, etc. etc. I’m only half joking. The Yankees will never have a better chance to win the World Series in the Gerrit Cole/Aaron Judge era. It has never been more right in front of them.

“I think we match up great with everybody,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch last weekend. “Obviously, we’re very talented, top to bottom. I personally think we’re the best team in baseball. I think we’re going to set out to try to prove that this postseason.”

I know how the postseason works. Any team can beat any other team in a short series. But the Wild Card Series could not have gone better for the Yankees. The Astros are out, the Orioles are out, and the three other AL teams still standing went 6-13 against the Yankees during the regular season. I’m not sure what more they could have asked for. The baseball gods did their part. Now it’s on the Yankees. Let’s get today’s post.

1. Sorting through the ALDS roster. No sport has a bigger difference between the regular season and postseason than baseball. They spent six months playing almost every single day, then you get to October, and there are off-days galore. The off-days are necessary for travel and all that, but they affect the way you build your roster, and it fundamentally changes the game. Postseason baseball is different.

That all said, there isn’t much mystery about the Yankees and their postseason roster this year. Something like 24 of 26 roster spots are already accounted for. The bigger mystery lies in specific roles (i.e. left field) than who’s actually on the roster. With that in mind, let’s talk about the ALDS roster, and figure out who will be there.

Position player locks

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. Here are the nine position players who are locks to be on the ALDS roster:

• Catchers: Austin Wells, Jose Trevino

• Infielders: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe

• Outfielders: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto

• DH: Giancarlo Stanton

• Utility: Jon Berti, Oswaldo Cabrera

Berti and Cabrera provide coverage all over and Berti’s a pinch-running option too. I don’t think there’s any chance either is left of the roster, especially with DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo hurt, and Cabrera being no lower than second on the “healthy first base option” depth chart. Aaron Boone even mentioned Berti as a candidate to see time at first base. Not sure I love that, but whatever. Anyway, 10 position player locks. Onward. 

Pitcher locks

Here now are the pitchers who are locks for the ALDS roster. I count nine of 'em:

• Starters: Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt

• Righty relievers: Ian Hamilton, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver

• Lefty relievers: Tim Hill

The Yankees only need three starters in the ALDS because there are so many off-days, so either Gil or Schmidt will be in the bullpen. Both guys will be on the roster though. Those are the four postseason starters with Nestor Cortes hurt, and those are the core Circle of Trust™ relievers. Nine pitcher locks and 10 position player locks mean 19 of the 26 roster spots are occupied.

Locks if healthy

There are two players in this category: Rizzo and Jake Cousins. Boone called Rizzo a “long shot” for the ALDS the other day, so I think we can scratch him off the list. Cousins got back on a mound this week and all indications are it went well. Sounds like he’s good to go and will be on the ALDS roster. Rizzo is a no, Cousins is a yes. That gets us to 20 players on the postseason roster.

(Cortes belongs in this group too, though his injured list time frame makes him ineligible for the ALDS, plus a flexor strain is a pretty serious injury. He is almost certainly done for the postseason even if the Yankees make it all the way to the World Series.)

The left field situation

Jasson Domínguez or Alex Verdugo, Alex Verdugo or Jasson Domínguez? Is there room for both on the postseason roster? Sure there is, and the Yankees wouldn’t even need to carry 12 pitchers and 14 position players rather than the standard 13 and 13 to make it work. Trent Grisham should get a mention here too even though he played zero innings in left field in 2024. He's still in the bench mix.

"You have off days. You don't necessarily need to use four starters,” Boone told Gary Phillips last weekend. “That could all factor into maybe an extra position player or something on the bench. So we'll see."

Domínguez started 15 of 19 games after being called up and Verdugo started only 10 of those games, and two of Verdugo’s starts came in right field during the Pirates series, after the Yankees clinched the AL East. If nothing else, the Yankees gave Domínguez runway. El Marciano didn’t hit much after being called up (.179/.313/.304 and 84 wRC+) and he played sloppy defense, but the Yankees gave him a look.

Of course, Verdugo didn’t hit much either, and his sample was much larger than 15 games. He will catch the ball though (most of the time), and the Yankees stood by him all season. They also stood by Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop all year in 2022, but when push came to shove in October, Oswald Peraza found himself on the field. I really have no idea which way the Yankees will go in left field.

“Obviously had some hiccups in the outfield. He didn't light up the stat line from an offensive standpoint, but I felt like he was having quality at-bats still,” Boone told Phillips about Domínguez. “I know what he's capable of – on both sides of the ball, for that matter – and the speed component he brings to the table. I feel like he's ready to go. Whatever way we go, he's going to play a big part."

What I do know is with three off-days in the ALDS – three! –  there’s no need to carry 13 pitchers. 12 is plenty, and I’d argue the Yankees could cut it down even further to 11 pitchers. You’re never going to play more than two consecutive days in the ALDS (unless there’s weather issues, like 2022). Do you really need 13 pitchers to navigate five games in eight games? Do you need 12? I don’t think so.

We’re at 10 position players right now. Going with 12 pitchers means the Yankees can carry Domínguez, Grisham, and Verdugo, and would still have an open position player spot, which is needed (more on that in a bit). We can safely assume at least two of the three outfielders will be on the ALDS roster and I would bet a shiny nickel Verdugo is one of the two. Two outfielders gets us to 12 position players and 10 pitchers.

The first base situation

It was telling that Ben Rice was at first base Sunday. It was a meaningless game, sure, but with Rizzo and LeMahieu out, the Yankees need someone to play first, and Rice got the only crack at the job. And the thing is, even if they decide to go with Cabrera at first in the postseason, they still need a backup on the roster. Berti, Trevino, and Wells have combined for 0.1 MLB innings at first base (Trevino in 2020). I think Rice is on the ALDS roster either as the starting first baseman or Cabrera’s backup. One way or the other, he’ll be there, and is the 23rd player on our roster (13 position players and 10 pitchers).

The second lefty

Nestor’s injury makes it a certainty Tim Mayza will be on the ALDS roster, I believe. The Yankees will need a second lefty against the Royals (Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, etc.) and Mayza pitched well for the Yankees, albeit almost entirely in low leverage situations. Only twice in 15 appearances did he enter into even medium leverage, and one of those two was Game 162, a game that did not matter.

Still, Mayza was a go-to high leverage lefty for the Blue Jays for years, so being asked to get important outs would be nothing new to him. The Yankees helped him clean up his mechanics and his velocity shot up …

… and Mayza held lefties to a .194/.194/.250 (.192 wOBA) line with the Yankees. Similar to Hill, he did it with a low strikeout rate (13.9%) and a very high ground ball rate (76.7%) against lefties. I really wish the Yankees had a bat-missing lefty (Cortes and his 27.5 K% vs. LHB will be missed), but they don’t. It is what it is.

The Yankees could make a 40-man roster move to get Anthony Misiewicz on the ALDS roster, but eh, that would be a surprise. Hill and Mayza are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster and I bet Mayza’s on the postseason roster. He is our 24th player (13 position players and 11 pitchers).

Do the Yankees want a pinch-running specialist?

The Duke Ellis question, basically. He spent a few days on the big league roster last month and, in his eight games with Triple-A Scranton, Ellis started once and pinch-ran seven times. If nothing else, the Yankees prepared him for a pinch-running role. I guess the question is, do you need a dedicated pinch-runner with Berti on the roster? Domínguez is speedy and at least has the potential to hit. Is the speed upgrade from Grisham to Ellis worth giving up much better defense (and offense)?

Yeah, it might be. Domínguez could be in the starting lineup and thus unavailable to pinch-run. And really, what would be Grisham’s role? He’s unlikely to pinch-hit for anyone and, other than an injury, under what circumstances will he find himself in center field? The Yankees pinch-run for Soto in a must-win situation, tie the game, then shift Judge to right and put Grisham in center? That’s probably it, right? Is it worth carrying Grisham to fill that emergency role over a pinch-runner? I think it’s reasonable to say no, it’s not.

We’re at 13 position players on our hypothetical roster and that includes only two of Domínguez, Grisham, and Verdugo. Assuming the Yankees go to 12 pitchers and 14 position players, they can either carry the third outfielder or Ellis, but not both. The designated pinch-runner role is easily overrated (they don’t get used often). I think that plus the fact Berti can run (and do other things) means Ellis gets left off, and the Yankees carry all three of Domínguez, Grisham, and Verdugo instead. This gets us to 25 players (14 position players and 11 pitchers).

The last bullpen spot

Assuming Cousins is healthy and the Yankees do with 12 pitchers rather than 11, there are three candidates for the final ALDS roster spot: Clayton Beeter, Mark Leiter Jr., and Marcus Stroman. The 15-day waiting period means Scott Effross, Cody Poteet, and Will Warren can not be on the ALDS roster unless they replace an injured player, and please no. Yoendrys Gómez? Put Nick Burdi or Phil Bickford back on the 40-man roster? Eh, possible, but very unlikely.

The last spot is down to Beeter, Leiter, and Stroman. Each has pros and cons:

Beeter: Was throwing harder than ever after returning from his shoulder injury in September and he had a dominant last weekend (four batters, three strikeouts), albeit against a checked out Pirates team. Beeter is a mystery box. Easy to dream on him being an out-of-nowhere contributor because he has a big arm and we haven’t seen him fail yet. He has basically zero MLB experience though.

Leiter: Leiter really struggled after the trade (4.98 ERA and 5.24 FIP), though he did have a 31.7 K% as a Yankee, so there is a redeeming quality here. Leiter can miss bats, against both lefties and righties, and his rotten BABIP (.407) and HR/FB (26.1%) luck as a Yankee can’t continue, can it? (Sure it can.)

Stroman: At this point in his career, all Stroman provides is bulk innings. They’re no longer quality innings, as he neither misses bats nor limits hard contact, and no longer gets ground balls at an elite rate. His role would be to soak up 3-5 innings in a lopsided game. The Yankees know bringing Stroman into a close game in anything other than an emergency would be a mistake.

With three off-days in the ALDS, I don’t think there’s any need for Stroman. There’s always an off-day right around the corner. You’re unlikely to run into a situation where your bullpen is taxed and worn down, at least not without the chaos of a long extra-innings game, and that isn’t something you plan for in the postseason. You just deal with it and adjust in the unlikely event it happens.

It’s always possible the Yankees will default to the Proven Veteran™ making real money and carry Stroman on the postseason roster, but it’s unnecessary, especially with either Gil or Schmidt in the ALDS bullpen. I think the last bullpen/roster spot is down to Beeter or Leiter. Whoever it winds up being is unlikely to pitch much, if at all. The last reliever will be the 26th man because the rules say you need 26 players.

The roster we just talked through includes 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Going with 13 pitchers given all the off-days is unnecessary, especially when we’re talking about guys like Beeter, Leiter, and Stroman for the last bullpen spot. Here’s what I guess we can call the projected ALDS roster:

Laying it out like that makes me want the Yankees to go with 11 pitchers even more than I already want them to. Do you really need that ninth reliever – Beeter, Leiter, or Stroman – when there’s three off-days in a best-of-five? Go with 11 pitchers and you can carry Ellis as a pinch-runner. Yeah, he might never get off the bench in the ALDS, but, if he does, he could make an enormous difference in a close game.

The ALDS roster does not have to be submitted to MLB until 10am ET on Saturday. The Yankees will publicly announce it not too long after that. My guess is they will err on the side of caution and carry the ninth reliever over Ellis because they’re more worried about running out of arms than running out of pinch-runners, which isn’t unreasonable. Sure feels like 11 pitchers and 15 position positions is the way to go given all those off-days though.

2. ALDS x-factors. It’s Yankees vs. Royals like we’re back in the late 1970s. On paper, the Yankees are the superior team, and the majority of RAB readers said they’d rather face the Royals than the Orioles in the ALDS (I voted for the Royals too). The superior team doesn’t always win in the short postseason series though. That's just baseball. We know what has to happen for the Yankees to win the ALDS, right? They have to solve Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto must lead the way offensively, the bottom of the lineup has to contribute something, and they can’t give Kansas City any openings with dopey defense and baserunning. Here now are a few other things that will help decide the ALDS.

How do the Yankees approach Witt?

Twice in the Wild Card Series the Orioles pitched to Bobby Witt Jr. with a runner on third, two outs, and a base open, and twice he singled to drive in a run (video). The game-winning run, in fact. Both times. The Orioles pitched to Witt when it wasn’t necessary and they got burned twice. (They pitched to him a third time in a similar situation late in Game 2, and Witt struck out. Third time’s a charm.)

Vinnie Pasquantino returned from his broken thumb about two weeks ahead of schedule in the Wild Card Series and went 2-for-7 with two walks and two strikeouts in the two games, and he looked pretty good. Made some hard contact, saw 40 pitches in nine plate appearances. That said, the guy missed more than a month and he returned in the Wild Card Series without any kinda rehab assignment. Being cautious with Witt (unlike the O’s) and challenging an ostensibly rusty Pasquantino is a defensible strategy.

We all remember the Rafael Devers incident, but the Yankees did not hand out many intentional walks this season. Only eight all year, and five of the eight came with the automatic runner in extra innings. So that’s three intentional walks in regulation in 162 games, and one was the Devers incident, which was a unique situation. Giving the other team free baserunners is not a thing the Yankees do all that often.

I’m not saying the Yankees should put up four fingers every time Witt comes to the plate. Only that, when a big situation finds him, will they pitch to him like the Orioles did, or take their chances with Pasquantino? Witt is a game-changer, man. That guy can ruin your day in a hurry. He’s on a team where he is clearly The Guy and I’m curious to see whether the Yankees will be careful with him, or take their chances.

The running game

It is no secret the Yankees had trouble preventing stolen bases this year. Jose Trevino in particular had a lot of issues – he finished with a 19% caught stealing rate, below the 22% league average – and Austin Wells is not exactly a shutdown thrower despite a strong 26% caught stealing rate. Here are his throwing metrics:

• Throw velocity: 77.9 mph (MLB average: 79.4 mph)

• Exchange time: 0.66 seconds (MLB average: 0.66 seconds)

• Pop time: 1.99 seconds (MLB average: 1.97 seconds)

When I wrote about Wells’ throwing early last month, his average throw velocity was 78.3 mph and he had ever so slightly quicker exchange (0.65 seconds) and pop time (1.97 seconds) rates. That maybe lends a little credence to the theory that he’s worn down after the longest season of his life. Wells caught 872.1 innings in 2024, well over his previous career high (725.1 innings in 2023).

The numbers say Wells is an average-ish thrower despite that 26% caught stealing rate and the Royals are going to test him. I know this because they test everyone. They were 11th in steals, seventh in stolen base attempt rate, and tenth in success rate during the regular season. They went 3-for-5 stealing bases in the two-game Wild Card Series. This is what the Royals do. They get on and run.

Here’s the thing though: Witt, Dairon Blanco, and Maikel Garcia stole 74% of their bases during the regular season. Their stolen base ability is largely tied up in those three players, and a) Garcia had a .281 OBP, and b) Blanco’s a bench guy and pinch-running specialist this postseason. Garcia and Witt are the two guys you really have to worry about. It’s not 2015 Royals-esque speed up and down the lineup.

Beyond the steals though, the Royals had a 48% extra-base taken rate this season, well above the 40% league average, and that is pretty much everyone except Pasquantino and Perez. The rest of their roster will go first-to-third, second-to-home, all that very aggressively. Yankees outfielders are prone to overthrowing the cutoff man and throwing to the wrong base (even Aaron Judge). Kansas City has the personnel to exploit that.

The extra bases worry me more than the stolen bases. The steals are mostly limited to Garcia and Witt. The entire Royals team save Pasquantino and Perez will test your outfielders. This is an x-factor though. The Royals are not a good offensive team – two runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games! – so they push things on the bases to try to scratch out runs. The Yankees are vulnerable against the running game.

The familiarity effect

There are three off-days in the ALDS and that will allow both teams to lean heavily on their high leverage relievers. Luke Weaver could throw two innings in Game 1 on Saturday, rest Sunday, pitch again in Game 2 on Monday, rest Tuesday, then get right back at it in Game 3 on Wednesday. A reliever could pitch in all five ALDS games without ever pitching more than two days in a row!

Using the off-days to lean on your top relievers in a short postseason series is smart, of course you do it, but there is a point of diminishing returns. Ben Lindbergh wrote about this last October. The more times an offense gets a look at a pitcher, the more familiar they become, and the more success they have. We might’ve just seen this play out with Phil Maton and the Mets. Here is Maton’s last week:

• Saturday at Brewers: Faced William Contreras, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers, and Isaac Collins

• Sunday at Brewers: Faced Blake Perkins, Gary Sánchez, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, and Jackson Chourio

• Monday at Braves: Pitched for third straight day

• Tuesday at Brewers: Did not pitch

• Wednesday at Brewers: Faced Chourio, Perkins, Contreras, Adames, Garrett Mitchell, and Hoskins

Pitching four times in five days is taxing enough, but Maton was also facing the Brewers for the third time in those five days. Five of the six batters he faced Wednesday got a look at him over the weekend. Maton gave up two singles (Perkins and Contreras) and two homers (Chourio and Mitchell) and blew Game 3 on Wednesday. It was just a coincidence the Mets closed out their regular season in Milwaukee, but it did give the Brewers a look(s) at their top setup man.

The familiarity effect is a real thing and this year’s ALDS schedule will make it awfully tempting for both teams – this applies to the Royals too – to use their top relievers pretty much every game. And really, what are you supposed to do, not use Weaver in a big spot because you’re worried the Royals will get too comfortable facing him? Weaver with the familiarity effect might still be the best option.

This is one of those things that could end up deciding the series or not play any role at all. The familiarity effect doesn’t guarantee the reliever will fail the more he pitches in a series, it only tells us relievers with similar usage patterns in the past have not been as effective. It could be that Yankees hitters will take advantage of all the extra looks more than Royals hitters, or vice versa. This is definitely a thing though. The schedule means conditions are ripe for a reliever(s) getting overexposed.

Moving Wells out of the cleanup spot

We’re not going to know until the lineup is posted sometime Saturday afternoon, though there are no indications the Yankees are planning to shuffle things, and I think that’s a mistake. I think the Yankees should bump Wells out of the cleanup spot even though he was so good there during the summer. This lineup seems reasonable enough:

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. C Austin Wells
7. LF Jasson Domínguez?
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 1B Ben Rice

I say this for two reasons. One, Wells really, really struggled at the end of the season: .111/.217/.194 (22 wRC+) in September and he finished the year in a 2-for-42 (.048) rut. I hope Wells was just gassed after the longest season of his life and that the Wild Card Series bye will give him a second wind, but he was really bad in September. Bad enough to make me want to move him out of the No. 4 spot.

And two, moving Chisholm up means more opportunities to use his speed. If Jazz hits behind Stanton and Stanton reaches base ahead of him, forget it. It’s station-to-station baseball and Chisholm can’t steal. With Judge ahead of Chisholm, the Yankees will be better equipped to double steal, things like that. Plus Judge hits so many homers that “reaching base” for him often means not standing on base, clearing the way for Jazz to run wild.

Mostly though, I think Wells has looked pretty bad for a long enough time to get him out of the cleanup spot, and get someone else in the all-important spot behind Soto and Judge. And if the switch allows Chisholm to use his speed more, great. I think a change is needed to get a better hitter behind Soto and Judge, first and foremost. Wells was so good much of the season. The last few weeks have been a real drag though.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Two quick non-postseason nuggets. First, the Yankees added RHP Carlos Lagrange to their Arizona Fall League contingent, per Josh Norris. Lagrange, my preseason No. 17 prospect, was limited to 21 ineffective innings by injury this year, though he did finish the regular season healthy, so the Yankees are sending him to the AzFL for more work. Here are the other six players the Yankees are sending to the desert. The AzFL season begins Monday … And second, MLB is fixing two uniform atrocities. Earlier this week the league announced players will go back to wearing their team’s uniform during the All-Star Game beginning next season, and they’re also rolling back all the uniform changes that were made this year (smaller names and numbers, new material, etc.). That won’t fully happen until 2026 because of production times and all that, but it’s happening. Good news. Seeing all the different uniforms on the field together during the All-Star Game was one of the sport’s great charms and traditions, and it never should have changed. Glad MLB is correcting that mistake. As for the new uniforms, they’re so amateurish. Good riddance. Funny how MLB’s stance went from “actually, the uniforms are the same and you’re all imagining things” in Spring Training to dumping them now.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Julian asks: If the Yankees win the World Series, would they potentially not pursue Soto as hard in free agency since the World Series pressure would be temporarily off?

Perhaps this is hopelessly naive of me, but I think the opposite would be true. The Yankees would make an even greater effort to retain Juan Soto if they win the World Series because he will be seen as the piece who put them over the top and he will make them an ungodly amount of money, and they don’t want to lose that. This is New York and these are the Yankees, the pressure of winning the World Series never goes away. This would not be like letting 36-year-old Hideki Matsui with two bad knees leave after he wins World Series MVP. Soto’s an in-his-prime megastar who can win you even more championships. I think the further the Yankees go, the more desperate they will be to re-sign him.

Adam asks: Other than the fact that Rodon is the highly paid veteran, is there any objective reason for giving Rodon a playoff rotation spot over Schmidt? I understand that Schmidt has had prior experience pitching out of the bullpen, but does giving Rodon a start in a series over Schmidt really put the Yankees in the best position to win the series?

I can’t say I ever truly feel comfortable and confident with Carlos Rodón on the mound, it always feels like he’s one or two things not going his way from melting down, but he did finish the season very well: 3.00 ERA (4.00 FIP) with 30.4 K% and 9.1 BB% in his last 13 starts and 72 innings. The home runs (1.50 HR/9) mean he’ll never have a shiny FIP, but 10 times in those 13 starts he allowed two earned runs or fewer. I gotta give Rodón props. He pitched really well the final 2.5 months of the regular season.

Schmidt pitched well in five starts after coming off the injured list (3.65 ERA and 3.69 FIP) and he did so under some extenuating circumstances. He was on a pitch limit when he first returned, he was on the mound for one of Jasson Domínguez’s outfield misplays, and he didn’t seem all that comfortable pitching in the rain in Game 162. I think Rodón and Schmidt both belong in the postseason rotation. The real question is whether Luis Gil does. His velocity was down late in the season …

… which is understandable given the largest workload of his life, and he did limp to the finish. Four runs in 5.1 innings against the Athletics in his second-to-last start, four homers in 5.2 innings against the Pirates (!) last time out. Nestor Cortes is hurt and the Yankees can’t start Marcus Stroman in the postseason, so Gil will be in the rotation, but he should be the No. 4 guy the Yankees won’t need in the ALDS (because of all the off-days) and will only need once in the ALCS and World Series (in theory).

It sounds like Schmidt will be available out of the bullpen in Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS, and the Yankees will do what they have to do to win those games. If Schmidt pitches, then it has to be Gil in Game 3. If Schmidt does not pitch in Game 1 or 2, then he’ll start Game 3. I don’t see this as Rodón vs. Schmidt for the postseason rotation. It’s Rodon/Schmidt vs. Gil. I think Gil’s the clear No. 4 right now given his workload and late season velocity dip. Give him as much rest as possible and use him infrequently.

John asks: If the Yanks resign Soto, where do you see Spencer Jones factoring into future lineups? He seems to have started to turn the corner in AA. Is he or Judge more likely to play center with the other playing first? Also could we see Soto play first down the road with an outfield of Dominguez-Jones-Judge 

Center field is open for Jones long-term. Aaron Judge in center is not something that can continue much longer. He turns 33 in April and his defensive numbers in center were poor this year (-9 DRS and -5 OAA). It is a young player’s position. Does that mean Judge moves to right and Soto moves to first, or Soto stays in right and Judge moves to first? I don’t know. But Jones is a legitimately above-average center fielder, so that’s where he fits. Figure Jones in center, Jasson Domínguez in left, then Judge and Soto in some combination of right, first, and DH.

Mike asks: Assuming Gerrit Cole stays in pinstripes, the Yankees have seven starting pitchers for five rotation spots: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nester Cortes, Luis Gil, Clark Schmidt, Marcus Stroman. It seems to me the smart thing to Do would be to try and trade Stroman. He's not making a ton of money and was decent this year. Do you think this is possible, and do you think the Yankees will try to do it?

I’m certain the Yankees will try to trade Stroman. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection, so that’s not an issue. The issue is he’s a declining veteran (declining velocity, declining ground balls, declining strikeouts, declining contact management, etc.), and although pitching demand always exceeds pitching supply, Stroman is not the most desirable trade target at this point in his career.

One thing Stroman has going for him is that he’s a “rainbow” pitcher, meaning his pitch movement chart covers the entire spectrum, like this:

I had someone tell me that’s the next big thing. "Rainbow" pitchers with deep arsenals and movement in every direction, even if none of the pitches grade out well individually. Everyone is looking for the next Seth Lugo, basically. The Yankees seem to be on this kick already. They have Stroman, Will Warren is cut from the same cloth, as are in-season pickups Jake Cousins and Michael Tonkin to some extent.

Pitchers with these arsenals are even more deceptive than they appear, and they already seem pretty darn deceptive. Of course, that is Stroman’s 2024 pitch movement plot, and the deception didn’t do him much good this season. Still, you only need one team to look at him and say “we can fix him.” Stroman’s $18M salary isn’t that bad, though the $18M vesting option for 2026 will be a headache.

The Yankees would likely have to eat money and/or take a bad contract back to move Stroman. If they can move him, they should, and they could always bring in someone else to backfill his innings. The Rangers stand out as a potential trade partner since they’re going to prioritize pitching this winter. I would say a Stroman trade is more like 20/80 than 50/50, but it is possible, the Yankees should explore it.

Max asks: Starting Sunday, the Padres were set to play the Diamondbacks. If the Diamondbacks win, it makes the Monday double header between the Braves and Mets necessary. The result is that the Mets and Braves have to exhaust themselves before facing the Padres in the playoffs. If you're the Padres, do you essentially throw the game? 

The D’Backs had to win Sunday to force the doubleheader Monday and Sunday's game meant nothing to the Padres, who were already locked in as the top Wild Card team. Arizona won that game in a blowout (11-2) and I wouldn’t say the Padres lost on purpose, but it was a meaningless game for them, and they acted accordingly. They used the last guys on the pitching staff, sat Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, etc.

Given the circumstances – D’Backs win forces the doubleheader and tires out a likely Wild Card Series opponent – I mean, yeah, throwing the game is the way to go, right? You’re not playing for anything and you have a chance to make life much, much harder on your opponent. This is extremely bad juju though. The baseball gods would not let it go unpunished. San Diego played it right. They went about as close to losing on purpose as possible without actually doing it. It was a meaningless game and they treated it as such.

(How do you even go about throwing a game? Piping fastballs down the middle? Letting fly balls fall in for hits? Keep in mind the stats count, and you've got guys on the field with arbitration raises on the line.)

Matt asks: Thanks for all the coverage this year! Let’s hope the yanks finish strong. I know you mentioned the ALDS is on TBS. Do we know all the stations covering the postseason this year? Do we need any streaming services? Does MLB TV get us postseason or do we need to have cable type package?

TBS (and related networks) has the ALDS and ALCS, and FOX/FS1 has the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series. You need a cable subscription to watch the postseason on MLBtv. There is no postseason-only option available. The easiest way to watch the postseason without cable is Sling. I’ve never used it but I know people who have, and they say it does the job (not the ringingest of endorsements, I suppose). The first month is $30 and you can cancel after that, once the postseason is over. That buys you access to every game.