September 30th, 2024: No. 1 Seed, Rizzo, Judge, Soto, Awards

Longtime RAB readers and hardcore prospect watchers may remember catcher Gustavo Campero. He spent a few years in the Yankees’ system and had a big rookie ball debut in 2017 (.292/.444/.521 and 174 wRC+), but the bat stalled, and the Yankees cut him loose after the 2020 pandemic season. The Angels signed him, and as recently as 2022, he was their Double-A bullpen catcher. Campero got back on the field as a player in 2023, performed well the last two years, and got called up on Sept. 15th. Now 27 and an outfielder, he hit his first MLB homer Saturday. Look how happy he is rounding the bases! What a cool moment. I had an Angels game on a week or two ago and thought there was no way it was the same Gustavo Campero, but it is indeed him. Good for him. He went 11-for-46 (.239) with the one homer during his September stint. Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday just to get it out of the way before the Wild Card Series begin.

1. Weekend thoughts. The six-month adventure that was the 2024 regular season is over. The Yankees went 94-68 with a +147 run differential, both the best marks in the AL. It’s the first time a team finished with the league’s best record with as few as 94 wins since 2007, when the Diamondbacks led the NL with 90 wins (yes, really). It’s the first time the AL’s best team had that few wins since the 91-win Orioles in 1974. Only the Dodgers (98-64) and Phillies (95-67) had better records than the Yankees, and only the Dodgers had a better run differential (+156). After the slog that was 2023, things went much better for the Yankees in 2024. Here are a few thoughts after the final series of the regular season, which ended when an Alex Verdugo ground ball to the right side got through to drive in two runs and Clay Holmes tossed a 1-2-3 inning for the save. Go figure, eh?

The AL’s No. 1 seed

After all that, after 162 games of Judgian dingers and Soto shuffles and soul-crushing blown saves and you-gotta-be-kidding-me double plays, the Yankees finished with the AL’s best record. It’s the first time they had the league’s best record since 2012, if you can believe that. Makes sense though. From 2013-23, the Yankees won the AL East only twice (2019 and 2022), and the Astros had the best record those years.

Anyway, the Yankees got the No. 1 seed because the Astros beat the Guardians twice over the weekend, though they did eventually beat the Pirates in Game 162. The Yankees certainly didn’t seem to prioritize the No. 1 seed. They ran the “if you’re over 30, you’re sitting” lineup out there Friday night after clinching the AL East on Thursday …

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. DH Juan Soto
3. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
4. LF Jasson Domínguez
5. RF Alex Verdugo
6. SS Anthony Volpe
7. CF Trent Grisham
8. C Jose Trevino
9. 1B Oswaldo Cabrera

Bench: UTIL Jon Berti, OF Aaron Judge, OF Giancarlo Stanton, 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Austin Wells

… and Will Warren pitched the ninth inning with a two-run deficit (later a five-run deficit) Saturday. Every regular got a day off this weekend (some got two days off) even though the Yankees won’t play again until Saturday. The Yankees will have home field advantage over every team in the postseason except the Dodgers or Phillies, should they meet in the World Series. Gonna be a busy October in the Bronx, I hope.

The Yankees are taking a full day off Monday, then they’ll hold heavier than usual workouts with sim games and live BPs and all that Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday will be the typical workout in line with what teams usually do the day before Game 1. The Yankees haven’t announced any rotation or roster decisions yet. That won’t happen until the end of the week, but look at the last few days:

• Thursday vs. Orioles: Gerrit Cole

• Friday vs. Pirates: Carlos Rodón

• Saturday vs. Pirates: Luis Gil

• Sunday vs. Pirates: Clarke Schmidt

Seems like a reasonable and realistic 1-4 postseason rotation order to me. Because of all the off-days, the Yankees won’t need a fourth starter in the ALDS, and Schmidt has bullpen experience. I guess then it makes more sense then to use Schmidt as a reliever in the ALDS than Gil? We’ll get into the postseason rotation and roster later this week, but the pitching clues are there.

So now we wait. Wait to see whether the Yankees will play the Orioles or Royals in the ALDS, wait for them to announce their rotation and roster, and wait for Game 1 on Saturday. I did not expect the Yankees to finish with the league’s best record this year, and the reasons that happened (Judge and Soto being so great, other top AL teams having down-ish years, etc.) are the same reasons the Yankees may never have a better chance to win a World Series in the Cole/Judge era. It’s time, fellas.

"We're not stopping until we get that ring,” Chisholm told Gary Phillips after the Yankees clinched the AL East. “That's what I've been hearing since I got here, and that's how I feel too."

Rizzo’s broken hand

The Yankees did not escape the final series without an injury. Rizzo’s right pinky and ring finger were broken by an errant Jalen Beeks pitch Saturday (video), though it does not necessarily rule him out for the postseason. It’s a pain tolerance thing more than anything. Between this and breaking his arm on a collision at first base, Rizzo’s had some rotten injury luck this season.

“Very much a long shot,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about Rizzo’s ALDS availability. “… I don’t necessarily expect him for the DS.”

Rizzo had been better of late – 10-for-26 (.385) in his last eight games – but it’s all singles and soft contact. He ran a 32.1% hard-hit rate and a 3.2% barrel rate in September, and had almost twice as many batted balls under 85 mph than at 100 mph. But still, Rizzo worked good at-bats and can scoop throws at first base, plus he’s not gonna spook in important postseason situations. He can contribute in those ways.

DJ LeMahieu is not yet ready to play, so Plan B is either Cabrera or Ben Rice, and the fact Rice was in Sunday’s lineup and Cabrera was not is pretty telling. Rice is (probably) better than what he showed earlier this season, but none of these guys figure to hit much. Rizzo’s defense alone makes him worth having in the lineup, especially with infielders prone to short-hopping throws.

That said, the standard should not be “can Rizzo tolerate the pain?” It should be “can Rizzo perform?” How can he grip a bat properly with two broken fingers? It’s his right hand, his bottom hand when hitting, the hand that makes it all work. It’s also his glove hand, so he’ll feel it every time he catches a ball. No one questions Rizzo’s toughness. It is the postseason though, and you need to be physically able to perform.

Rice went 0-for-3 Sunday and I think the Yankees should put him at first and try to get some offense from the position. They can always sub Rice out for defense in the late innings. The Yankees have gotten zero offense from first base, shortstop, and left field all season. This is not okay and they should attempt to address if it all possible:

Can we really expect Rizzo to hit with two broken fingers? The Yankees can plug Rice in at first – he hit .269/.420/.687 (174 wRC+) in Triple-A after being demoted – and maybe get some production there. It’s only maybe because Rice might not hit, but I think he has more offensive ability than Cabrera and an injured Rizzo, so plug him in there and maybe – again, maybe – plug a lineup hole.

The Yankees did not get a single home run from their first basemen in their final 52 games. Not since LeMahieu’s grand slam in Philadelphia on July 31st. There’s more to life than homers, for sure, but they are important, and this emphasizes how little the Yankees got from first base this season. If Rizzo is compromised, then he shouldn’t play. Rice has the best chance to provide an impact, so play him.

(If the Yankees are doomed because they don't have Rizzo, or because they played Rice over Cabrera or vice versa, then they probably aren’t going very far anyway.)

Two of best hitters in the world are better than one

When the Yankees traded for Soto, this is exactly what they envisioned. Pairing Soto with Judge and having the best offensive duo in the sport, and really one of the best all-time. Their final slash lines:

lol, lmao, etc. etc. Judge's 218 wRC+ is the best by a right-handed hitter ever. Ever. Among righties with at least 500 plate appearances, it's the best ever. Judge this year is first, Rogers Hornsby is second (214 wRC+ in 1924), Judge is third (206 wRC+ in 2022), Mark McGwire if fourth (205 wRC+ in 1998), and Frank Thomas is fifth (205 wRC+ in 1994). The best season by a right-handed hitter EVER.

Judge and Soto are the first teammates to finish 1-2 in OBP since Wade Boggs and Mike Greenwell with the 1988 Red Sox, and before Shohei Ohtani’s unreal final week, they were in position to become the first teammates to rank 1-2 in wRC+ since Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell with the 1989 Giants (Judge and Soto instead finished No. 1 and 3 in wRC+, respectively). 

The 2024 Yankees are the eighth AL/NL team in the Modern Era with two qualified hitters with a 175 OPS+ or better. The names:

• 2024 Yankees: Judge (223 OPS+) and Soto (178 OPS+)

• 1989 Giants: Clark (175 OPS+) and Mitchell (192 OPS+)

• 1933 Yankees: Lou Gehrig (177 OPS+) and Babe Ruth (176 OPS+)

• 1932 Yankees: Gehrig (181 OPS+) and Ruth (201 OPS+)

• 1931 Yankees: Gehrig (194 OPS+) and Ruth (218 OPS+)

• 1930 Yankees: Gehrig (203 OPS+) and Ruth (211 OPS+)

• 1928 Yankees: Gehrig (193 OPS+) and Ruth (206 OPS+)

• 1927 Yankees: Gehrig (220 OPS+) and Ruth (225 OPS+)

The 1927, 1928, and 1932 Yankees won the World Series and the 1989 Giants got to the World Series, though they got swept. Let’s hope the Judge/Soto Yankees follow the Gehrig/Ruth Yankees path and not the Clark/Mitchell Giants path, especially with the whole World Series earthquake thing. Judge and Soto did not get that last homer to reach 100 though, so they’ll have to settle for being the sixth set of teammates with 99 combined homers rather than 100.

1. Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 115
2. Rich Aurilia and Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 110
3. Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, 1927 Yankees: 107
4. Ray Lankford and Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals: 101
5. Rafael Palmeiro and Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 100
6. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: 99

Soto set a new career high in homers (only Ruth hit more home runs in his first season as a Yankee), he walked (18.1%) more than he struck out (16.7%) for the fifth straight season, and his 7.4% swinging strike rate was far better than the 11.1% MLB average. The contact/power combo is almost unmatched. This list surprised me. Here are the qualified Yankees with a 175 OPS+ or better in a non-pandemic season (LeMahieu had a 178 OPS+ in 2020): 

• Babe Ruth: 13 times

• Lou Gehrig: 10 times

• Mickey Mantle: 7 times

• Joe DiMaggio, Aaron Judge: 2 times

• Bobby Murcer, Paul O’Neill, Alex Rodriguez, Juan Soto: 1 time

That’s it. Only nine players in franchise history have had a 175 OPS+. Roger Maris had a 167 OPS+ in 1961. Don Mattingly peaked at a 161 OPS+ in 1986. Reggie Jackson (1980) and Jason Giambi (2002) both got to a 172 OPS+, though no higher. They’re the only other two to reach even a 170 OPS+ in pinstripes. Soto’s season was, truly, one of the greatest ever by a Yankee. The generational:

1. Aaron Judge: 218 wRC+
2. Juan Soto with men on base: 194 wRC+
3. Juan Soto on road: 188 wRC+
4. Juan Soto vs. RHP: 182 wRC+
5. Shohei Ohtani: 181 wRC+
6. Juan Soto overall: 180 wRC+
7. Juan Soto vs. LHP: 174 wRC+
8. Juan Soto at home: 171 wRC+
9. Yordan Alvarez: 168 wRC+
10. Bobby Witt Jr.: 167 wRC+

Ultimately, Judge fell short of 100 extra-base hits and 400 total bases – he finished with 95 and 392 – though Ohtani got to 400 total bases (411 to be exact). It’s funny, Judge outslugged Ohtani by 55 points, but Ohtani finished with more total bases because Judge drew 52 more walks and thus put the ball in play less often. Ohtani had more total bases. Judge had more total bases per chance to swing the bat. (Judge fell 10 AVG points short of the Triple Crown. He hit .322 and Bobby Witt. Jr hit .332.)

One thing Judge did do is join the 700/700 club: 700 plate appearances with a .700 SLG. He’s the sixth player to do it (seventh instance) and the second in the last 92 years. The 700/700 club:

• Aaron Judge, 2024: 704 PA and .701 SLG

• Sammy Sosa, 2001: 711 PA and .737 SLG

• Jimmie Foxx, 1932: 702 PA and .749 SLG

• Lou Gehrig, 1930: 703 PA and .721 SLG

• Hack Wilson, 1930: 709 PA and .723 SLG

• Lou Gehrig, 1927: 717 PA and .765 SLG

• Rogers Hornsby, 1922: 704 PA and .722 SLG

Judge finished with a higher AVG, higher OBP, higher SLG, higher wRC+, higher OPS+, higher BB%, lower K%, more bWAR, and more fWAR than his 2022 MVP season. No, he didn’t break the AL’s single-season home run record, but he managed to have an even better season. Over the last three years – 1,858 plate appearances! – Judge has hit .304/.433/.674 (202 wRC+). One of the greatest offensive peaks ever.

What happens in the postseason, we will see, but Judge and Soto just had the greatest offensive season by two teammates since Ruth and Gehrig. The Yankees could re-sign Soto – and I really hope they do! – and we still might never see something like this again. Judge is unbelievable. One of the greatest righty hitters the game has ever seen. Soto is just now entering his prime. What a treat these two made this season.

Miscellany

John Sterling was in the booth the last six games and we got a home run call for Chisholm: “Jazz making beautiful music! He hits one deep in the right field seats. And all that Jazz!” Here’s the video. I’m glad we got an answer to the “what would Sterling’s call for Jazz be?” question. Felt like unfinished business … Giving up back-to-back solo homers immediately after the offense gives you a 2-0 lead is the kinda thing that would chap me most of the season, but not when the game means nothing. Rodón finished his second season in pinstripes well enough Friday – 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 5 K, 2 HR on 95 pitches – and, most importantly, he made it through in one piece. The schedule lines up in such a way that Rodón can throw a full sim game on normal rest Wednesday, then start Game 2 of the ALDS on normal rest next Monday … Rough final start for Gil, who gave up four homers in 5.2 innings. He hadn’t given up more than two homers in a start all season. His final numbers: 3.50 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 26.8 K% in 151.2 innings. When Cole went down in Spring Training, it was easy to think the Yankees were in major trouble, but Gil went above and beyond filling in. At +3.1 WAR, it’s the best season by a Yankees' rookie pitcher since Dellin Betances in 2014 (+3.7 WAR) … Tim Hill finished the regular season with a 2.05 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 44 innings as a Yankee. He had the lowest strikeout rate (10.7%) and the highest ground ball rate (68.3%) among the 268 pitchers with at least 60 innings. Also, Hill has thrown nothing but fastballs since Aug. 25th:

What a good pickup and what a delightfully unique pitcher. I look forward to Hill pulling a 2009 Damaso Marte this October … Luke Weaver did not pitch at all during the homestand before throwing 15 pitches in a scoreless inning Sunday. Boone said he was fine, and Weaver did warm up a few times during the Orioles series, but he didn’t pitch much the final week. I’m totally fine with that. Weaver threw 81 innings in 62 appearances this season. It was a big multi-inning workload and they were almost all stressful high leverage innings. A little late season breather for the bullpen’s most important pitcher isn’t the worst thing in the world … And finally, good gravy what an arm on Paul Skenes. He absolutely cooked Soto:

If someone showed up with that kinda stuff 75 years ago, he would have been burned at the stake for being a witch. Skenes threw only two innings Sunday as part of his workload plan and he finished his rookie year with a 1.96 ERA (2.44 FIP) and 33.1 K% in 133 innings. He’s fourth among pitchers with +6.0 WAR, the most by a rookie pitcher since Mike Soroka’s +6.1 WAR season in 2019 (Soroka threw 44.2 more innings than Skenes). I’m very glad that man is in the NL Central and not the AL East. The talent level in the game these days is unreal.

Injury updates and roster moves

LeMahieu (hip) is continuing his rehab work and says he’s moving around better. “I don’t know if they’ll use me or not, but I’m definitely gonna try to be available,” he told Max Goodman. The Yankees shouldn’t use LeMahieu, he’s pretty cooked, but I appreciate him getting himself in position to at least be an option, especially with Rizzo now hurt … Jake Cousins (pec) has had no issues playing catch and will throw a bullpen Tuesday. If that goes well, he’ll face hitters in live BP on Thursday. That’ll determine his ALDS availability … Scott Effross was sent down to open a roster spot for Rice on Sunday. Rizzo was not put on the injured list, leaving open the possibility that he could play in the ALDS. Boone did call it a long shot though, so we'll see … And finally, it’s a bit weird the Yankees waited until Saturday, two days after he pitched, to send down Cody Poteet for a fresh arm (Warren). It’s possible I’m wrong and the 15-day waiting period doesn’t apply once the regular season ends, but, if it does, the demotion takes Poteet out of play for the ALDS (he would be eligible for the ALCS). Anyway, Poteet went down for Warren, then Warren went down for Mark Leiter Jr., who came off the paternity list Sunday.

Up next

The postseason. We still don’t know the full 12-team postseason field because the Braves and Mets have their makeup doubleheader in Atlanta later today. That should be fun. We do know the AL bracket though:

• Bye: No. 1 Yankees and No. 2 Guardians

• Wild Card: No. 6 Tigers at No. 3 Astros (winner plays Guardians)

• Wild Card: No. 5 Royals at No. 4 Orioles (winner plays Yankees)

TBS has the ALDS this year and we can safely assume the Yankees will get the prime time slot Saturday no matter who they play. Remember, the ALDS format this year is Game 1, off-day, Game 2, off-day, Game 3, Game 4, off-day, Game 5. The off-days are good for the team and the bullpen but bad for fans. I just want to watch the Yankees, man. Anyway, the fun begins Saturday.

2. The Yankees and 2024’s major awards. The regular season is over and so soon will be the voting for the season’s major awards. Ballots are due before the start of the postseason, so the voters still have a few hours. MLB’s major awards – MVP, Cy Young, Rookie and Manager of the Year – are regular season awards. The votes will have already been cast when the first pitch is thrown Tuesday.

This is where I put my annual “I don’t have an awards vote this year because the New York chapter of the BBWAA is huge, and the votes rightfully go to beat writers who cover the teams daily” note. I can’t lie, I would like a vote one day, but I understand not having one. On the bright side, no vote means I can write freely about this stuff. I don’t have a ballot to keep under wraps or anything.

The Yankees have had major award winners each of the last two years thanks to Gerrit Cole (2023 Cy Young) and Aaron Judge (2022 MVP). That streak is likely to extend to three years this season, though this year’s MVP race is a wee bit more competitive than 2022’s. Let’s dig into the awards races and see where the Yankees stack up, shall we? We shall.

Most Valuable Player

The last three AL MVP races were not races. Shohei Ohtani won unanimously in 2023, Judge got 28 of 30 first place votes in 2022 (Ohtani got the other two), and Ohtani won unanimously in 2021. Judge and Ohtani got every first place AL MVP vote the last three years. The last players other than Judge and Ohtani to get first place votes were José Abreu (21), José Ramírez (8), and DJ LeMahieu (1) in 2020.

This year’s AL MVP race is a little more wide open, but only a little. Bobby Witt Jr. had an incredible season, really one of the best all-around seasons in recent memory, and I don’t think it would be that egregious if he won MVP. Here is the Judge vs. Witt head-to-head comparison:

• AVG: Witt (.332 vs. 322)

• OBP: Judge (.458 vs. .389)

• SLG:  Judge (.701 vs. 588)

• wRC+: Judge (218 vs. 167)

• HR: Judge (58 vs. 32)

• RBI: Judge (144 vs. 109)

• SB: Witt (31 vs. 10)

• DRS: Witt (+2 vs. -6)

• OAA: Witt (+15 vs. -4)

• WPA: Judge (+6.05 vs. +4.74)

• CPA: Judge (+4.3% vs. +3.8%)

• bWAR: Judge (+10.8 vs. +9.4)

• fWAR: Judge (+11.2 vs. +10.3)

Judge’s MVP case is built around his offense, which is historically great more than plain ol’ great. It’s a nice narrative that he moved to center to make room for Juan Soto, but his defense has rated poorly, and it isn’t like other right fielders wouldn’t have done the same. Witt’s MVP case is built around great offense and all-around excellence. Elite offense, elite defense, elite baserunning. Witt is so, so good.

MVP voting and awards voting in general has become very homogeneous. Six of the 12 MVP and Cy Youngs the last three years have been unanimous and Judge (2022 MVP) and Blake Snell (2023 Cy Young) were two votes short of being unanimous. The voters think alike and that doesn’t necessarily mean blindly following WAR. It seems like the team being in contention doesn’t matter a ton in the MVP voting now.

Judge’s and Witt’s teams are both in the postseason, though the Yankees sailed in easily while the Royals did not clinch until Game 160. The argument can be made Witt is more important to the Royals than Judge is to the Yankees. Kansas City doesn’t sniff the postseason with a league average shortstop, but the Yankees might still get a Wild Card spot with a league average center fielder? Maybe? Possibly?

That is not me throwing my support around Witt. That’s just an example of the logic that might get applied to the MVP race in the past. These days, the team’s place in the standings doesn’t matter as much as it once did. Witt being so good for a team that was on the postseason bubble isn’t necessarily the sorta thing that will earn him additional votes over Judge, whose team finished with the league’s best record.

I don’t think Witt winning would be egregious. I also don’t think it will happen. Judge’s offensive performance is so huge, so outsized compared to the rest of the league, that I expect him to win. I also expect the voting to be closer than the last few years, which in this case might mean something like 25 first place votes for Judge and five for Witt. Those two will get all 30 first place votes though. How could they not?

My expectation is Judge will win MVP, Witt will be the runner-up, and then Ramírez, Soto, and Gunnar Henderson will finish third, fourth, and fifth in the voting in some order. The MVP ballot is 10 players deep and Judge and Soto will be the only Yankees to get votes. I doubt anyone gets even a stray tenth place vote this year.

Cy Young

There’s been an “Emmanuel Clase for Cy Young” push the last few weeks, mostly from Guardians fans, and hey, I get it. He’s been incredible. But Tarik Skubal threw 192 innings with a 2.39 ERA (2.49 FIP) and a 30.3 K%. He led the league in ERA, FIP, ERA+ (170), strikeouts (228), bWAR (+6,3), and fWAR (+5.9). The difference between Clase and Skubal is 117.2 innings of 3.52 ERA ball. That’s a borderline All-Star. Skubal’s winning.

The Yankees don’t have a Cy Young candidate this year. Cole’s injury takes him out of the race – this will be the first time he won’t get any Cy Young votes since 2017, when he was still in Pittsburgh – and no one else on the staff has an argument for Cy Young consideration. I guess Luis Gil has the best chance? As good as Luke Weaver has been, he hasn’t been “reliever gets Cy Young votes” good.

The Cy Young ballot includes five names and Skubal, Seth Lugo, and Cole Ragans will appear on all 30 ballots. That leaves two spots for Clase, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, Framber Valdez, etc. The Yankees have had a pitcher get a Cy Young vote every year since 2019, the first year before Cole. That streak will end this season. No Yankees are getting a Cy Young vote.

Rookie of the Year

The September slump cost Austin Wells a shot at Rookie of the Year. He was gonna have to continue mashing right through Game 162 to make up for finishing with 145 fewer plate appearances than Colton Cowser. Wells hit .113/.210/.197 (19 wRC+) in September and that dragged his season batting line down to .229/.322/.395 (105 wRC+), which is still quite strong for a rookie catcher and comfortably above the .234/.300/.379 (91 wRC+) league average for catchers.

With Wells fading, Gil is the Yankees’ best shot at Rookie of the Year, and Sunday’s rough start is the kinda thing that could serve as a tiebreaker for any voters who were on the fence. Gil finished with a 3.50 ERA (4.13 FIP) and 26.8 K% in 151.2 innings. He also led the league with 77 walks, but Cowser is at -2.60 WPA because he was so bad in high leverage situations. 651 players took a plate appearance this year and Cowser is 643rd in win probability added. There’s no great AL Rookie of the Year candidate. They’re all flawed. Here are the WARs, for posterity:

Baseball Reference
1. Wyatt Langford: +3.7 WAR
2. Wilyer Abreu: +3.4 WAR
3. Colton Cowser: +3.2 WAR
4. Luis Gil: +3.1 WAR
5. Ceddanne Rafaela: +2.8 WAR

FanGraphs
1. Colton Cowser: +4.1 WAR
2. Austin Wells: +3.4 WAR
3. Wilyer Abreu: +3.1 WAR
4. Wyatt Langford: +2.9 WAR
5. Cade Smith: +2.7 WAR

First time since 2021 there is no +4 bWAR rookie and only the second time since 2013 (excluding 2020). I suspect Cowser will win in a “well, we have to vote for someone” way. Voters are more likely to see Gil’s league leading walk total (and Wells’ relative lack of playing time) than Cowser’s awful performance in leverage. How about we scrap AL Rookie of the Year this year and give out two NL Rookies of the Year so Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill can both win? Sounds good to me.

(Just FYI: The Yankees would get a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick for Wells if he wins Rookie of the Year. They would not get one for Gil because he did not meet the top 100 prospect ranking criteria.)

Manager of the Year

I feel like I say this every year: Manager of the Year is a weird award, but I know what a Manager of the Year season looks like, and Aaron Boone didn’t have one. The Yankees were expected to be good this year and they were good, and this wasn’t some powerhouse 108-win team where voters will say “how can I not vote for the guy who ran that team?” Figure A.J Hinch (Tigers) or Stephen Vogt (Guardians) will win Manager of the Year. Both meet the usual “the team was better than expected” criteria. Vogt probably wins because he’s chummy with the media, and that plays. Boone might get some down-ballot votes like he did in 2022, but he ain’t winning.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Yankees have a bona fide Comeback Player of the Year candidate in Carlos Rodón, who followed last year’s miserable showing with a 3.96 ERA (4.39 FIP)and 26.5 K% in 175 innings. That’s quite good, and the Yankees badly needed Rodón to rebound, but is it good enough to win Comeback Player of the Year over Carlos Correa, Garrett Crochet, or Tyler O’Neill? Eh, hard to say. My guess is O’Neill will win. Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both came into the season as Comeback Player of the Year candidates, but that ain’t happening. Rodón’s the best shot for the Yankees here.

Gold Gloves

I am never going to find it nor will I even bother going back to look, but I distinctly remember YES showing an “Alex Verdugo has been great in left field” graphic in April when he was sitting on +8 DRS. Verdugo finished the season with +7 DRS. Friends don’t let friends take small sample size defensive stats seriously. The Gold Glove eligibility is needlessly complicated …

All infielders and outfielders must have played in the field for at least 698 total innings through his team’s 138th game: this equates to playing in the field for approximately 7.5 innings per game in approximately 67% of his team’s games by his team’s 138th game; this ensures that only full-time players are considered

… and nine AL players finished the season with 698 innings in left field (I’m not going to bother checking who got there in the first 138 team games). Among those nine players, Verdugo finished fourth in DRS and sixth with +0 OAA. Riley Greene and Langford have pretty good cases in left field, though Steven Kwan has the numbers (+10 DRS and +3 OAA) and the reputation (two-time Gold Glover), so he’ll probably win.

Wells meets the catcher eligibility criteria and he rates as a very strong defender: third in Statcast framing, third in FanGraphs framing, 11th in Statcast blocking, and fifth in DRS. Cal Raleigh exists though, and he’s at the top of the AL in basically every defensive stat, including innings caught. Raleigh will likely win the Gold Glove and he deserves it. Excellent metrics, great eye test, enormous workload.

It’s really just Anthony Volpe for Yankees’ Gold Glove candidates, and his defensive stats have reversed from last season: +5 DRS and +14 OAA in 2024 after +15 DRS and +1 OAA in 2023. Why? Beats me. The eye test says Volpe is a good defensive shortstop. Not an especially graceful one, but good, and he won it last year. Having one Gold Glove makes it easier to win another.

Volpe was second among AL shortstops in OAA and sixth in DRS. The statistical component of Gold Glove voting is kept behind closed doors, they don’t tell us exactly what it is, but if Volpe won with +15 DRS last year, I have to think this year’s +5 DRS hurts his case. Brayan Rocchio has been really good this season (+11 DRS and +6 OAA), but it feels like Witt’s award, no? He’s so good at everything.

(There is also a team Gold Glove award these days. The Yankees will not win that.)

Miscellany

Judge’s second career Hank Aaron Award as the league’s best hitter is in the bag. He won it in 2022 and he’ll win it again. It’s purely an offensive award and there’s no argument for anyone else winning it. Judge will also win a Silver Slugger, as will Soto. The September slump dragged Wells’ numbers down too far to win Silver Slugger. Sal Perez seems like a good bet at catcher. There is a team Silver Slugger award now and the Yankees might actually win it. They ranked first among AL teams in runs per game, fourth in AVG, first in OBP, second in SLG, first in wRC+, and first in home runs. No other individual Yankees will win Silver Sluggers though. Only Judge and Soto. Reliever of the Year is going to Clase. He deserves it, for sure. There’s also the All-MLB Team. Judge and Soto will be first-teamers and the only All-MLB Yankees, though Gil, Wells, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. were also nominated. That’s all the notable awards, right? Yeah, I think so. Judge is likely to win MVP, maybe Gil (or Wells) surprises us and wins Rookie of the Year, and Volpe could get a Gold Glove. That’s it for the important stuff this year.

3. Upcoming at RAB. The postseason begins this week and the usual Tuesday/Friday format goes out the window around these parts in October. I’ll definitely have a post between now and Game 1 on Saturday looking more closely at the ALDS opponent, the possible postseason roster, all that good stuff. Once the games begin, the posts will come on a more regular basis. I can’t promise a post before/after every single postseason game, but I will effort. Point is, the usual Tuesday/Friday posts go away in October – the mailbag goes on hiatus too unless I can carve out time or there’s something especially topical –  though I won’t leave you hanging. There will be plenty here the next few weeks.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)