Quick thoughts after Nestor Cortes heads for an MRI on his elbow

UPDATE: The Yankees placed Cortes on the 15-day injured list with a flexor strain, they announced this afternoon. Poteet was called up in a corresponding move and Stroman will start tonight. The injured list stint takes Cortes out of play through the ALDS, though flexor strains are pretty serious injuries – they can be precursors to Tommy John surgery but not always – so Nestor's season is likely over no matter how far the Yankees advance in the postseason. What a bummer.

ORIGINAL POST: Well, so much for heading into the postseason healthy. Nestor Cortes, Wednesday’s scheduled starter, is going for an MRI on his elbow, according to Jack Curry. Cody Poteet is expected to join the Yankees in the Bronx today, though it’s unknown if he’ll be added to the active roster or just join the team in a taxi squad situation. Probably the former, but fingers crossed for the latter.

We should get more information about Cortes later today (the nature of the injury, when it popped up, etc.), though elbow injuries are always bad news, and oftentimes there are second opinions and multiple doctor visits. We’ll get some information during Aaron Boone’s daily pregame press conference at 4pm ET, but probably not the full picture. So, we wait, and hope for the best. A few quick thoughts:

1. Wednesday’s starter. Wednesday’s game is not really a big deal. The Yankees can start Poteet or Marcus Stroman in Nestor’s place, and this rotation spot won’t come up again during the regular season. Tuesday’s loss was annoying, but the Yankees still need only one win (or one Orioles loss) to clinch the AL East. They’re in great shape. As far as the regular season goes, the Cortes injury is nothing significant. The Yankees will be fine these last five games.

2. The postseason. This is where a Cortes absence would really hurt, and let’s be real, how often do pitchers miss only a little time with an elbow injury? If the Yankees put Nestor on the 15-day injured list, even backdated the maximum three days, it rules him out for the ALDS. He won’t be eligible to be activated in time. You only need three starters in the ALDS this year because there are so many off-days, and figure those will be Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and either Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt. It’s not until the ALCS that you need a fourth starter this October.

That said, Nestor has been the team’s second best starter behind Gil all season – Cortes has a 3.77 ERA (3.83 FIP and 3.65 xERA) in a team-leading 174.1 innings – and three weeks ago he showed he can be effective out of the bullpen. He threw six scoreless innings against the Mariners in his most recent start and had a 1.58 ERA (2.99 FIP) in his last 40 innings spanning six starts and the one relief appearance. No performance red flags preceded the injury.

In one way or another, Cortes was going to be on the ALDS roster, and you didn’t have to try hard to see him settling into a multi-inning high leverage role. The postseason bullpen at the moment:

• Closer: RHP Luke Weaver

• Setup: RHP Ian Hamilton, LHP Tim Hill, RHP Tommy Kahnle

• You know he’ll be there: RHP Clay Holmes

• Whoever isn’t in the ALDS rotation: RHP Luis Gil or RHP Clarke Schmidt

• Others: TBD

Six locks for at least seven bullpen spots, and possibly as many as nine. Cortes and Jake Cousins are injured, though at least Cousins’ MRI came back clean. He’s expected to resume throwing later this week. Candidates for the other bullpen spot(s) include Stroman, Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Mayza, and I guess Clayton Beeter even though he’s yet to get into a game since being called up. Not great!

The Yankees are concerned enough to send Cortes for an MRI and, even if it’s just inflammation (the best case scenario), he’ll need some downtime to allow it to clear it, then time to get back on a mound and get back into game shape. It’s not often an elbow MRI is followed by a short timeout and a quick return to form. Nestor’s ability to return and pitch effectively will be unknown even with “good” news. Blah.

3. What about 2025? With elbows, it’s easy to think the worst case scenario right away, and Tommy John surgery would wipe out Nestor’s postseason and his entire 2025. It would likely end his time as a Yankee as well. Next season is his final season of team control and the Yankees won't pay him $6M or so through arbitration to spend the year rehabbing, and then immediately become a free agent.

This, unfortunately, would be nothing new. The Yankees non-tendered Kahnle (2020), Nate Eovaldi (2016), and Lou Trivino (2023) under similar circumstances. They had Tommy John surgery just before their final season of team control, and the Yankees cut them loose rather than pay them to rehab. It is a nasty part of the business, but it happens all around the league. It’s not just the Yankees who do it.

Cortes is one of my favorite Yankees, when he’s on he’s as fun as anyone, and this elbow injury ending his (third) stint with the organization would be such a heartbreaker. Gonna keep my fingers crossed and hope this isn’t the worst case scenario. More importantly, Nestor’s postseason availability and reliability is suddenly in question, and that is bad news for a Yankees team with a bullpen that is shallower than you’d like.