September 24th, 2024: AL East, Judge, Cole, Torres, Wells, Cousins, Beeter

It’s official: There will not be a 100-win team this year. First time since 2014. The Dodgers and Phillies both took their 63rd loss over the weekend to clinch it (the Yankees lost their 63rd game last weekend, the Rafael Devers intentional walk game). There were at least three 100-win teams every full season from 2017-23. No 100-win teams this year but there is a 120-loss team. The White Sox got there Sunday, tying the 1962 expansion Mets (40-120-1) for the most losses in the Modern Era. Chicago has six games remaining. They are 45 games out … of fourth place. They’re further away from fourth place than every other last place team is to first place. Good gravy. Here now is today’s post. I apologize it’s a bit shorter than usual, but the postseason is a week away, and things are about to pick up. This past weekend was my last chance to take it easy and relax a bit, and recharge before things get hectic between RAB and CBS.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees are done with their regular season road schedule. They went 50-31 (.617) with a +115 run differential away from Yankee Stadium this year, and unless the Padres go 6-0 this week, the Yankees will finish with the best road record in baseball. This is their best road record since the 2003 team went 51-29 (.638) with a +128 run differential away from the Bronx. The Yankees haven’t been as great at home, but they haven’t been bad at Yankee Stadium either (42-33 and +32 run differential), and I want them to play as many home games as possible in October. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The state of the AL East race

The Yankees were unable to clinch the AL East in Oakland (it was unlikely anyway because they needed to sweep the A’s while the Tigers swept the Orioles), but the lead is season high six games with six to play. The magic number is one. To put it another way, the only way the Yankees can lose the AL East is if they go 0-6 and the Orioles go 6-0 this week. The division was a toss up as recently as Sept. 6th!

Since Sept. 6th, the Yankees are 11-4 while the Orioles are 4-10. The Yankees got their act together and handled their business. The Orioles did not. Did you know Baltimore has not won a series against a team with a winning record since July 2-4 against the Mariners? Even if the Yankees get swept by the O’s this week, they’ll leave the series with a three-game lead and three games to play. Let’s not tempt fate though.

“We’re focused,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Sunday’s win. “I think everyone in that room knows what’s at stake and what the mission is, where we’re at in the calendar and the opportunity in front of us. I think guys are just ready to do what we’ve got to do to win ballgames and give ourselves a chance come October.”

Although they didn’t clinch the AL East in Oakland, the Yankees did check a few other boxes. The kinda boxes that get checked along the way to a division title. Here’s where things stand with the Yankees:

• Clinched a better record than the Astros.

• Clinched home field advantage in at least the first round.

• 2.5 games up on the Guardians. The magic number over them is three.

• One game behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball.

Clinching a better record than the Astros means the Yankees will get a Wild Card Series bye if they win the AL East. They’re also assured of being no worse than the top Wild Card team, so they’ll have home field advantage in their first round. It’ll almost certainly be the ALDS after the bye, but if it’s the Wild Card Series, then it’s the Wild Card Series. One way or the other, the Yankees will play their first two postseason games in the Yankee Stadium, and that’s pretty cool.

The Guardians clinched the AL Central when the Royals lost Saturday afternoon, then they celebrated and lost hangover games Saturday and Sunday. That gave the Yankees a 2.5-game lead for the AL’s best record, and because the Yankees hold the tiebreaker, it’s functionally a 3.5-game lead. As long as the Yankees get a bye, I don’t really care if they’re the No. 1 or 2 seed, but if you can get the No. 1 seed and home field advantage through at least the ALCS, then do it. The Yankees can and I hope they do.

As for the best record in baseball, that is within reach, but it will only matter if the Yankees face the Dodgers in the World Series, and that’s unlikely just because the odds are always against any two specific teams meeting in the World Series. The best record may not be decided until Game 162. Let’s get the AL East and No. 1 seed wrapped up this week, then circle back to the best record Friday. Despite that ugly stretch in the middle of the summer, the Yankees are in excellent shape to finish the season's with the league's best record.

Judge’s final series in Oakland

Aaron Judge’s first official act as a Yankee was taking batting practice with the big league team at the Oakland Coliseum after signing his first pro contract in 2013 (video). He grew up not too far away in Linden, California, and over the weekend he said he and his wife used to go to Yankees vs. Athletics games on dates when they were younger. The Coliseum is a dump of a building these days, but it is a special place for Judge.

“It’s definitely sad. I had a lot of great memories here as a player,” Judge told Hoch. “I came here a couple of times as a kid, so I’ll reminisce on that a little bit. There’s a lot of history in this building, going back to the ’70s, what they were able to do here three years in a row (the 1972-74 World Series). A lot of special players played here, and getting a chance to be on that same field is definitely something I won’t forget.”

Judge went 4-for-9 with two homers – his 54th and 55th of the season – and four walks over the weekend, and leaves as a .323/.457/.738 (217 wRC+) hitter with seven home runs in 18 career games in Oakland. I mean, it’ll probably be his final series in Oakland, though there is an element of “I’ll believe it when I see it” with the Las Vegas thing given A’s owner John Fisher’s lack of progress securing his part of the funding.

Anyway, Judge homered twice over the weekend and joined Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa as the only players with multiple 55-homer seasons. He’s on pace for 57 home runs, 96 extra-base hits, 394 total bases, and 326 times on base. Judge could absolutely go nuclear this final week and get to 100 XBH and 400 TB, but alas, he’s on pace to fall short. He gave it a good run.

With a week to play Judge leads baseball in homers (55), RBI (138), walks (129), OBP (.458), SLG (.695), OPS (1.154), OPS+ (221), wRC+ (216), and both versions of WAR (+10.3 bWAR and +10.7 fWAR). He was leading in both win probability added and championship probability added too before Shohei Ohtani went bonkers last week: 16-for-28 (.571) with six homers and seven steals.

Judge and Juan Soto are going to become the first teammates to finish 1-2 in OBP since Wade Boggs and Mike Greenwell with the 1988 Red Sox. It's remarkable Soto's hitting .287/.418/.572 (179 wRC+) with 40 homers and is clearly – clearly – the second best hitter on his own team. I don’t know how many times I’ve said that this year, but it’s a lot, yet it still feels like not enough. What a season for Judge.

(Since 2022, Judge has homered 154 times in 417 games. That’s a 60 homers per 162 games pace for three seasons. How is any of this real? The Yankees gotta win this guy a World Series.)

Cole peaking at the right time

Other than the disaster that followed the Rafael Devers intentional walk, Gerrit Cole has been lights out the last two months, and Friday night was far and away his best start of the season: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video) on only 99 pitches. One of those two hits could have been scored an error too (this one). For a brief moment I thought Cole might go out for the tenth inning, but nah. Nine innings is enough. (The last pitcher to go 10 innings was Cliff Lee in 2012.)

"I didn’t fatigue tonight, which is a good sign. I had more in the tank, which is also a good sign,” Cole told Hoch. “That allowed us to execute pitches well into the night. I hadn’t pitched in the seventh, eighth, or ninth yet. That felt really good, and so it was nice to see it come together.”

Including the terrible Red Sox start, Cole has a 2.53 ERA (2.68 FIP) with a 26.4 K% and 7.5 BB% in his last nine starts. Only two homers in 53.1 innings too. Opponents are hitting .193/.269/.266 against him in those nine starts. That is very much Cy Cole, no? He’s allowed no more than two runs in 11 of his 16 starts. It’s really only the Red Sox and Mets that have given Cole trouble this year:

• Mets + Red Sox: 11.29 ERA (9.60 FIP) and .480 wOBA against (18.1 IP in four starts)

• Everyone else: 1.67 ERA (2.30 FIP) and .236 wOBA against (70 IP in 12 starts)

The Yankees are done with the Red Sox this season and, if they see the Mets again, I will happily take my chances with Cole on the mound. That means we’ve got a Subway Series World Series. Those Mets and Red Sox starts count, absolutely, but Cole’s been really good more often than not this year. Especially lately. The last two months have been vintage Cole (right down to getting hit around by Boston nyuck nyuck nyuck).

One thing Cole has not done these last two months is throw 100 pitches. Nine innings and 99 pitches Friday is as close as you can get to throwing 100 pitches without actually throwing 100 pitches, but he hasn’t thrown 100 pitches since July 24th. I don’t think this is that big a deal. I’m sure Cole will be good for 110 pitches in a postseason start, if necessary. I’m just a bit surprised he hasn’t done it in a while.

The intentional walk to Devers was a dumb decision, but some of the reactions were over the top. Cole’s not really an ace, he would do the Yankees a favor by opting out, etc. Silliness. It was a dumb decision and that’s all it was. Live and learn. More importantly, Cole has looked very good almost every time out the last two months. The stuff is crisp and the location is getting better. It’s coming together right before October.

"I’d much rather have 212 innings under my belt,” Cole told Hoch. “Regardless of how I feel today, you’ve been in the flow of the league since April. That experience is invaluable. But I feel like we’re in a good spot right now. Just keep trying to press and go forward with a lot of confidence."

Gleyber mashing, Wells slumping

Leadoff Gleyber continues to be the best Gleyber. Torres is hitting .308/.383/.448 (139 wRC+) with five homers in 34 games since moving back into the leadoff spot. He’s reached base multiple times in 23 of those 34 games. Torres is averaging 4.36 pitches per plate appearance since returning to leadoff, well above the 3.83 league average. When the whiffs go down, the production goes up:

The narrative that Torres turned his season around after getting benched seems to have taken hold, but eh, that’s not really the case. Gleyber hit .291/.344/.473 (130 wRC+) in the 14 games before the benching. The fact of the matter is that, in his last 108 games (two-thirds of a season), Torres is hitting .271/.341/.417 (116 wRC+). That’s pretty much exactly what I expected from him this year, minus some power.

On the other end of the spectrum, Austin Wells has had a rough September, slashing .140/.206/.246 (27 wRC+) with a 30.2 K% in 16 games (he did double in an insurance run Sunday). I think he’s a little beat up – well, no, it’s late September and he’s a catcher, he’s definitely beat up – because he’s done a lot of “look at his right hand and shake it out after a swing and miss” lately. For example:

Seems like Wells might be grinding through a hand issue much like Soto earlier this year. Also, Wells has caught, by frickin’ far, the most innings he’s ever caught this season. He’s at 836.1 innings behind the plate this year. It was 725.1 innings last year, 557.2 innings the year before, and 585.2 innings the year before that. He’s young and strong, but it is a lot of innings. This is one reason the Wild Card Series bye is important. Wells (and others) could use a few days to rest.

Wells hit .288/.378/.522 (153 wRC+) from June 1st through Aug. 31st. As much as I wanted it to happen, it was unrealistic to expect him to do that right through October. He’s allowed to slump. Hopefully his hand is okay and hopefully the Yankees nail down the bye, and Wells can relax next week. Gleyber’s been awesome lately. Wells hasn’t. A few weeks ago, the opposite was true. That’s baseball for ya.

Cousins to the IL, Beeter up

Jake Cousins was placed on the injured list with a pec strain Sunday. He exited last Thursday’s game with tightness and said it had given him trouble since last Saturday. The move is backdated to Sept. 20th, so although his regular season is over, Cousins will be eligible to be activated for the ALDS. Seems like the Yankees gave him as much time as possible to feel better before making the move. Sunday was the last day to put Cousins on the (backdated) injured list without wiping out his ALDS availability.

“We’re hoping it’s minor enough where a couple days down, then start ramping up next week to be in line for the playoffs,” Boone told Randy Miller. “We didn’t want to get in a situation where if he comes into a game Tuesday and isn’t quite right, then we’ve got to IL him, and we’re up against it from a time situation. So we’ll see what we have.”

Cousins has been really good this season – his 34.2 K% is 14th among the 465 pitchers with at least 30 innings – and, in theory, losing him is a blow. The Yankees are in excellent shape in the AL East race and to secure a Wild Card Series bye though, so they can be cautious and give Cousins a little break and time to heal up. And, frankly, if the Yankees blow the AL East, it won’t be because Cousins wasn’t available for the final seven regular season games. Something much worse and more horrible will have happened.

To replace Cousins, the Yankees called up Clayton Beeter, whose season was thought to be in jeopardy in May. Brian Cashman acknowledged Beeter may need surgery, but apparently that was not the case, and he popped back up in minor league games earlier this month. Not only that, but he’s been terrific: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K in five relief appearances for Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton. Beeter’s velocity has been way up too. This is quite the velocity spike after a shoulder injury:

Beeter’s thrown his three fastest and eight of his 11 fastest pitches ever tracked by Statcast this month. Velocity often ticks up with a move to the bullpen, sure, but Beeter is coming off a shoulder injury and a lengthy absence. Not often a guy comes back from that throwing harder than ever. Also, Beeter has put his changeup on the shelf. It’s all fastballs and sliders this month, which is the typical reliever arsenal. All things considered, Beeter has looked as good as anyone could have hoped after the injury.

“Lights out,” Boone told Hoch about Beeter’s recent relief work in the minors. "I’m excited to get him here and see what he can do in these final games.”

Is this final week enough time for Beeter to show the Yankees he belongs on the postseason roster? Yeah, maybe it is. We are in the Golden Age of out-of-nowhere relievers. Orion Kerkering made his MLB debut last Sept. 24th, made three regular season appearances, then he was pitching in high leverage situations for the Phillies in the postseason. The back of the bullpen is in flux, especially now that Cousins is hurt. If Beeter wows this week, I could absolutely see him on the postseason roster.

For now, let’s hope Cousins gets healthy in time for the ALDS, and be thankful Beeter’s shoulder injury was not the season-ender initially feared. Him blowing hitters away this week would be amazing. Beeter might be a reliever long-term because he’s been mostly low-90s as a starter the last two years and is pretty ordinary at that velocity. September 2024 kick-starting his career as a lockdown reliever would be swell. 

Miscellany

Anthony Volpe went 5-for-12 in Oakland with a 421-foot homer Saturday (video), his longest as a big leaguer. Was sitting twice in eight games and getting pinch-hit for last Thursday a wake-up call? Or is this merely one of Volpe’s random hot streaks? Trying to figure this guy out is exhausting. Whatever’s going on, please let it continue this week and into the postseason … Carlos Rodón was great Saturday: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K (video) on 90 pitches. Michael Kay went overboard with the “Rodón has been terrific this season!” stuff, but Rodón’s been really good lately, and he was great Friday. Cole is starting Game 1 because he’s Gerrit Cole. I’m pretty sure the Yankees are going to default to Rodón in Game 2 because of his contract, though I can’t say Rodón in Game 2 is egregious. The Yankees have multiple good options for Games 2-4, and that's a great place to be … Remember when Luis Gil was a changeup monster earlier this year? That’s gone out the window. It’s been mostly fastballs and sliders the last few weeks:

I don't know how the Yankees will fill out their postseason rotation behind Cole and Rodón. If Gil isn’t in it, then they should have him come out of the bullpen later this week just to do it. So he’s not doing it for the first time in a postseason … Once again, Clay Holmes was brought into a high leverage situation Sunday, though at least this time Boone pulled him before the inning got away. Why use Holmes in a 10-run game Saturday when he could work on things (specifically not hanging his slider all the damn time) without sweating the score when you could use him in a close game the next day? They’re just so stubborn with him. I don't get it … Six up, six down, three strikeouts for Mark Leiter Jr. in Saturday’s blowout. Five whiffs on 11 swings (45%) too. He threw 27 pitches. It was Leiter’s best outing as a Yankee and it’s not really close either. The guy had allowed a run in eight of his previous 11 appearances. Leiter’s been so bad that I’m not sure I’ll ever fully trust him this year, but if Saturday was a sign he’s getting on track, I’ll take it … Jasson Domínguez and Alex Verdugo have the same number of MLB home runs since July 7th (two). Verdugo made one start in Oakland. In that game he made five outs in four plate appearances and overthrew the cutoff man on his only defensive play, allowing the runner to take second base. Domínguez needs to play every single game on the homestand to get familiar with left field in Yankee Stadium. He’s the guy in the postseason, largely because Verdugo has shown he’s not the guy … And finally, weird defensive alignment in the tenth inning Friday, no? Here’s who the Yankees had out there after all the pinch-hitting and pinch-running in the top of the tenth:

Wouldn’t it have made more sense to keep Verdugo in left, move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center, and put Jon Berti at third base since those are their more familiar positions? Jazz has short-hopped a lot of throws lately and Berti played all of 21 innings in left field on his rehab assignment. Eh, whatever. It all worked out. 

Injury updates and roster moves

Lou Trivino has been shut down with a shoulder issue, which explains why he hasn’t pitched since Sept. 13th. It’s not uncommon for Tommy John surgery guys to go through a dead arm phase during their rehab, and for Lou’s sake, I hope that’s all this is. Either way, his chances of being part of the postseason bullpen have been downgraded from slim to none … DJ LeMahieu (hip) has started baseball activities, including hitting off a tee. He’s still unlikely to return this year, but he’s doing stuff now, and is no longer in the rest phase of his recovery … Cody Poteet (triceps) was activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Scranton on Friday. Ron Marinaccio was DFAed to open the 40-man roster spot and the White Sox claimed him off waivers, so the Ron from Toms River era is over. Marinaccio was great in 2022, throwing 44 innings with a 2.05 ERA (3.02 FIP), but the last two years have been bumpy, and he didn't gave the Yankees much of a reason to keep him around whenever he got called up. He’ll be out of options next year and it’s hard to think Marinaccio would have entered 2025 assured a big league roster spot. Godspeed, Ron … And finally, Triple-A Scranton’s season ended Sunday, and the Yankees presumably sent a group of players to Tampa to play in sim games and stay ready in case they’re needed as injury replacements either this coming week or in October. Figure it’s the 40-man roster guys we’ve seen at various points this season. Poteet, Scott Effross, Oswald Peraza, Carlos Narváez, Ben Rice, Will Warren, etc. Maybe even non-40-man guys like Nick Burdi and Jahmai Jones. Would be nice to be able to simply add those guys to the active roster, but nope. Stupid new September roster expansion rules.

Up next

The Yankees’ most important series since the 2022 ALCS. That’s a bit overdramatic, but it is true. The O’s are in the Bronx for three games this week and the Yankees are six up in the AL East. The magic number is one, so one win this series (or next series) clinches the division. Here’s what’s coming up:

• Tuesday vs. O’s: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Dean Kremer (7pm ET on YES, TBS)

• Wednesday vs. O’s: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Zach Eflin (7pm ET on YES)

• Thursday vs. O’s: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

The Yankees used the off-day Monday to flip Schmidt and Cortes – Schmidt will start Tuesday on normal rest, Cortes on Wednesday with an extra day – presumably just to buy Nestor a little extra rest late in the season. He leads the Yankees in starts and innings and hasn’t missed a turn. Schmidt had a long break this summer because of his injury. He should have plenty left in the tank.

Looking ahead, the Yankees will host the Pirates in the final series of the regular season this weekend. The O’s go to Minnesota to play a Twins team that is suddenly out of a Wild Card spot. The Pirates mapped out a plan that involves Paul Skenes pitching all season, and he is lined up to start Saturday. That’ll be fun. I hope the Yankees have everything clinched by then so we can enjoy Skenes and not stress over the outcome.

(Reminder: The Orioles series is a John Sterling series. He's doing this series as a warmup for the postseason.)

2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees and WFAN are getting close to picking a John Sterling replacement, per Ryan Glasspiegel. Rickie Ricardo is among the finalists, as are television play-by-play men Dave Sims (Mariners) and Paul Severino (Marlins). Ricardo and Sims are great. I have no opinion of Severino because I’ve watched maybe six innings of Marlins baseball when they weren’t playing the Yankees over the last five years, and that was only to watch Ohtani go 6-for-6 with two doubles, three homers, and two steals last Thursday (lmao). Severino could be amazing for all I know. He’s from Connecticut and was on ESPN and MLB Network before getting the Marlins job. For Sims, the WFAN job is a chance to come home and be near his family as he gets closer to retirement. For Severino, it’s a step up, right? Yankees radio is more prestigious than Marlins television, I have to think. No word when WFAN will announce the hire. Wouldn’t shock me if they announce it tomorrow or not until after the World Series.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)