September 2nd, 2024: Wells, Stroman, Warren, Domínguez

For the first time since 2019, the Yankees entered September with the best record in the American League. The last two and a half months haven’t been the prettiest, I know, but the Yankees are 79-58 with a +121 run differential. They’re one up in the loss column in the AL East. As a certain someone likes to say, it’s right in front of them. Take care of business these last 25 games and it doesn’t matter what the Orioles or any other team does. Here now is Tuesday’s post on Monday. I’m sending this a day early and I apologize it’s shorter than usual, but it’s Labor Day weekend, and I plan on doing absolutely nothing Monday.

1. Weekend thoughts. What does it say that the Yankees made a spirited five-run comeback Sunday but still lost by seven, and it barely even registers on the Worst Loss of the Season scale? Saturday was the first time the Cardinals won a game in the Bronx since Bob Gibson struck out 13 in 10 innings in Game 5 of the 1964 World Series, then the Yankees were nice enough to allow St. Louis to set new season highs in runs and hits Sunday. During what was, on paper, a favorable stretch of schedule in August (and on Sept. 1st), the Yankees went 14-13 with a +3 run differential. It's just not good enough. Here are a few thoughts on the Cardinals series.

Wells and the Rookie of the Year race

Starting catcher/TikTok star Austin Wells had his first career two-homer game Friday night (video) and was back behind the plate Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Yeah, he struck out to end Saturday’s game, but this was a pretty nasty 3-2 pitch by Ryan Helsley. Wells keeps getting better and now the power’s starting to arrive. Two homers Saturday, three in his last six games, and four in his last 13 games. He had four homers in his previous 29 games. Please enjoy the bat flip:

“The catching was ahead of where we expected last year. And at the start of this year, we were waiting on the bat to come. It sure has,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Friday's game. “He puts together really good at-bats, and then he’s got that power in there. This is what we’ve seen from him for more than a couple of months now. Just a real middle of the order presence.”

Wells is up to .254/.343/.439 (121 wRC+) on the season, which is a) well above the .237/.301/.385 (92 wRC+) league average for catchers, and b) incredible given how he started the season. In addition to the bat, Statcast has Wells as a top three framer and an above average blocker, and an average-ish thrower. He’s fifth among catchers with +10 DRS despite being 17th in innings caught. What an impressive all-around rookie season.

“He’s a catcher for the New York Yankees as a rookie. There’s a lot that comes with that,” Marcus Stroman told Hoch. “It’s not easy at all. I think he’s done an incredible job. We all love him in this clubhouse, and I think he’s only going to get better.”

With a month to play, Wells is firmly in the AL Rookie of the Year mix, and I think he should win, though I’m not unbiased. This isn’t a great AL rookie class overall, right? There’s no 2023 Gunnar Henderson or 2022 Julio Rodríguez, a tippy top prospect having a blow you away rookie year. Here is the FanGraphs AL rookie WAR leaderboard entering play Sunday (fWAR includes framing):

1. Austin Wells: +3.5 fWAR
2. Colton Cowser: +3.4 fWAR
3. Wilyer Abreu: +3.0 fWAR
4. Mason Miller: +2.3 fWAR
5. Luis Gil: +2.2 fWAR

Cowser has 469 plate appearances and Wells is at 331, so despite 71% of the playing time, Wells has provided essentially the same value. Wells is outhitting Cowser – Cowser has a .245/.322/.448 (118 wRC+) line – and he’s crushing him in win probability added (+0.60 WPA vs. -1.77 WPA). He’s also playing better defense at a more premium position. Over the last four months, it’s no contest:

Cowser in April: .303/.372/.632 (179 wRC+) with -0.34 WPA and +1.3 fWAR
Wells in April: .196/.338/.294 (89 wRC+) with -0.10 WPA and +0.4 fWAR

Cowser since April: .232/.311/.408 (105 wRC+) with -1.43 WPA and +2.1 fWAR
Wells since April: .273/.351/.481 (134 wRC+) with +0.70 WPA and +3.1 fWAR

April counts! And Cowser was incredible during the season’s first month. Wells has been the better player the majority of the season though, and not by a little either. Maybe the difference in playing time is too much to overcome. And maybe none of this matters because the voters will be wooed by Miller’s 103 mph gas, and he’ll win. I dunno what’ll happen. I just know Wells has been arguably the most productive rookie in the league this year, and he’s quickly become indispensable to the Yankees.

Stroman’s resurgence

For the first time since May 31st in San Francisco, Stroman completed seven innings Friday night, and that didn’t appear likely after the third inning. Stroman threw 27 pitches in the two-run third inning and 61 pitches in the first three innings. He then threw 37 pitches in his final four innings. Eight in the fourth, six in the fifth, eight in the sixth, and 15 in the seventh. His line: 7 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K (video).

“For me, it’s process-oriented. A lot of things going on in the weight room, behind the scenes, a lot of things going on mechanically. I feel pretty sound and very fluid and in sync,” Stroman told John Healy. “I feel great. Just looking forward to taking this into my next start. Obviously into the next few weeks and months into the season where it gets down to the nitty gritty.”

Stroman allowed four straight two-out singles in that third inning, including two after Jazz Chisholm Jr. was unable to catch a pop up along the netting in foul territory, but that’s all they were, singles. In the four starts since having a start pushed back to work on mechanical issues, Stroman has a 2.35 ERA (2.82 FIP) and has held hitters to a .314 SLG. In the four starts prior to that, it was a 7.47 ERA (5.34 FIP) and .625 SLG.

These last four starts are as good as Stroman has looked really at any point this season. He hasn’t faced the best competition – Stroman faced the Rangers, Tigers, Rockies, and Cardinals in those four starts and those are four below average offenses – but even bad teams were hitting him hard earlier this year. The process is important and look at Stroman’s sinker location heat maps:

Stroman stopped throwing 90 mph sinkers in the heart of the plate and You Won’t Believe What Happened Next. For real though, Stroman’s stuff isn’t good enough to challenge hitters in the zone. There’s a reason he nibbles so much. He’s trying to stay out of the middle of the plate and make sure his misses are off the plate, not middle-middle. Earlier this year Stroman was in the zone too much. Now he’s locating better.

“I feel like he’s just behind all of his pitches,” Wells told Zach Braziller after Friday’s game. “He’s hitting some better spots than he was, and it’s working out really well for him.”

Four weeks remain in the regular season and all we know about the postseason rotation right now is Gerrit Cole will start Game 1. My guess is the Yankees default to Carlos Rodón in Game 2, but I don’t know that. The rotation behind Cole is unsettled. For much of the season, Stroman was pitching himself out of the postseason rotation. With any luck, these last four starts are a sign he’s figured some things out and he’s back in the mix for October, and not just a blip against bad competition.

“The stuff is a little crisper,” Boone told John Healy after Stroman’s start. “Whether it’s a mile per hour on the heater, I don’t know. But it feels a little sharper watching from the side. Misses are in line when he’s going well. Command-wise, he’s getting better places.”

Warren hit hard again (and a note on wasting pitches)

Another bad start for Will Warren, who’s only good big league start in five tries came against the historically terrible White Sox. His line Saturday: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR. A double play wasn’t turned behind him and he gave up a short porch dinger to Brendan Donovan (Statcast says it wouldn’t have been a homer in any other park), but still, it was a bad outing. Warren has a 9.55 ERA (4.56 FIP) through five starts and 21.2 starts.

“You’ve got to know where you can miss, in the zone and out of the zone,” Warren told Hoch after the game. “These guys are good at what they do. Minimize mistakes and minimize damage as much as possible.”

The YES broadcast made a big deal about Warren wasting pitches after getting ahead in the count, and it’s certainly true he does that, but that’s a Yankees thing, right? Not just a Warren thing. I first mentioned this back in May. The Yankees waste a lot of pitches. Here are the updated numbers on Yankees pitchers after getting ahead in the count 0-2:

Walk Rate
30. Mets: 4.5%
29. Astros: 4.2%
28. Yankees: 4.0% 
(MLB average: 3.2%)

Zone Rate
30. Yankees: 36.3%
29. Phillies: 36.2%
28. Orioles: 36.2% 
(MLB average: 38.8%)

Noncompetitive Pitch Rate
30. Cardinals: 28.6%
29. Yankees: 27.6%
28. White Sox: 27.4% 
(MLB average: 25.0%)

Noncompetitive pitches are pitches at least 18 inches from the center of the zone. Those pitches are easy takes (hence noncompetitive). In all two-strike counts the Yankees are 29th in zone rate and 29th in noncompetitive pitch rate. This is what they do. They waste more pitches in two-strike counts than just about any team in the league. Warren merely does what the Yankees preach.

No Martian landing on Sept. 1st

I wish I could say I’m surprised, but I’m not. The Yankees did not call up Jasson Domínguez when rosters expanded Sunday. Here are the full roster moves:

• Warren and Ben Rice sent to Triple-A.

• Anthony Rizzo activated off the 60-day injured list.

• Duke Ellis, Scott Effross, and Ron Marinaccio called up.

• Josh Maciejewski DFAed to clear a 40-man roster spot for Rizzo.

Ellis, who the Yankees claimed off waivers last week, is very fast and that’s it. He can’t hit and he’s not a lockdown outfield defender. The only players the Yankees are gonna pinch-run for are Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and the catchers. Ellis is a poor use of a roster spot. He’s a guy you called up back when you could carry your entire 40-man in September. Not when you get only one extra position player spot.

That said, Ellis is only here until Jon Berti returns, which should be very soon. He’s got a full week of rehab games under his belt already. Chances are Ellis not only goes down when Berti returns, but also gets DFAed to clear the 40-man spot (Berti’s on the 60-day injured list). But also, Berti’s nothing special either. He’s a 34-year-old speed guy coming off a major calf injury. How much can you expect from him, really?

The Yankees are, for reasons I will never understand, undyingly loyal to Alex Verdugo, who’s hitting .234/.292/.361 (84 wRC+) overall and:

• .223/.273/.338 (71 wRC+) since May 1st. 

• .216/.273/.312 (65 wRC+) since June 1st.

• .214/.278/.305 (65 wRC+) since July 1st.

• .204/.269/.280 (56 wRC+) since August 1st.

Verdugo is one of the least productive everyday outfielders in baseball and he’s gotten worse with each passing month. There are no reasons to believe a turnaround is imminent. He’s not even a long-term piece! Verdugo will be a free agent in a few weeks. Why is his job so secure? When in doubt, bet on the Yankees sticking with the underperforming veteran over the prospect.

"Certainly in the conversation. Will remain in the conversation moving forward,” Boone told Chris Kirschner about Domínguez on Sunday. “When he comes up here, you're going to want to play him every day. He'll continue to remain in that conversation. Over the last couple of weeks, starting to play well from coming back from the oblique injury. Tough call right now. It doesn't mean that it won't change in a couple of days, a week, two weeks, whatever it is. But it's important for him to continue to play right now."

I think the Yankees should call up Domínguez and put him in left field everyday (maybe shelter him against tough lefties since the right side is his weaker side). I’m usually willing to defer to teams when it comes to prospect readiness because they know way more than us, but the Yankees don’t have a good track record in this department, and the bar in left field is on the ground. How is Verdugo not at the end of his leash?

It’s not hard to come up with reasons to keep El Marciano in Triple-A. For example, he’s missed a lot of time with injuries this year and needs regular at-bats. But also the big league team is the priority, and the Yankees are in a division race in their one guaranteed year with Juan Soto. Feels like the time to put your best, most talented players on the field. I guess the Yankees think Verdugo is that, not Domínguez.

(It’s not even clear Domínguez will be eligible for a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick next year. One of the requirements is fewer than 60 days of service time, and Domínguez will be over that next year because of all the time he spent on the injured list. Injured list time doesn’t count toward the rookie service time limit, but it appears it does toward the 60-day limit for PPI eligibility. I don’t think the Yankees are keeping Jasson down for PPI purposes, but I’m not sure he's eligible for one anyway.)

The pitching moves are whatever. Maybe Effross can fill the high leverage void Mark Leiter Jr. has been unable to fill, but his stuff has been down in Triple-A, and he got hit hard Sunday, so I won’t get my hopes up. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt (and Ian Hamilton) aren’t too far away, so neither Effross nor Marinaccio (nor Phil Bickford) figure to be around much longer. Rizzo had two hits Sunday and hopefully he hits these last few weeks, because first base is a wasteland. Here are the worst positions by WAR entering play Sunday:

1. White Sox 3B: -1.9 WAR
2. Yankees 1B: -1.6 WAR
3. Astros 1B: -1.5 WAR
4. White Sox LF: -1.5 WAR
5. Marlins C: -1.4 WAR

The Yankees have gotten a .209/.273/.338 (72 wRC+) line from first base. Only Reds first basemen have been worse (71 wRC+). Getting even league average production from Rizzo would be an enormous upgrade. Then again, Rizzo hit .223/.289/.341 (80 wRC+) before getting hurt. Hope isn’t a strategy, but that’s where we are at first base. Hoping Rizzo performs in a way he hasn’t performed in 15 months.

My guess is the roster will look different by this time next week. Berti will replace Ellis. Gil, Hamilton, and Schmidt are coming to replace some combination of Bickford, Effross, Marinaccio, and Tim Mayza. Maybe we’ll see Domínguez too. Can’t say I expect it though. It seems like the Yankees are ready to sink or swim with Verdugo even though he’s been an anvil for months.

(I will say that, as bad as Verdugo has been this year, he does give off some “randomly goes 8-for-17 with three doubles, three walks, and one strikeout in a postseason series” vibes.)

Miscellany

Garbage performance top to bottom by the pitching and defense Sunday. Nestor Cortes, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Volpe at short, Soto in right, all of ‘em. Just awful. Six relievers faced 27 batters and they struck out four, or 14.8%. It is September and we’re still talking about the bullpen’s inability to miss bats. When you allow so many balls in play and the defense barfs all over itself, you get games like Sunday. It happens way too often. The Yankees shoot themselves in the foot and give away extra outs constantly … Soto and Aaron Judge in the last two series: 8-for-47 (.170) with three doubles, seven walks, 16 strikeouts, and four double plays.  If those two don’t hit, then the jig is up. The Yankees can’t overcome it. They’ll get on track eventually, I’m sure of it. They’re too good to continue struggling. But damn man, doesn’t make it suck any less in the moment … What great, heads-up baserunning by Chisholm in the second inning Sunday. Here’s the play. The Cardinals were all asleep and waiting for the pitch to be delivered, so Jazz broke for third, then he scampered home when the ball got away. Stole a run. His speed, aggressive baserunning, and energy have been such a breath of fresh air … Stanton’s bases-clearing pinch-hit double Saturday (video) was the 300th double of his career. It was this close to being a game-tying grand slam too:

Stanton is the 55th player with 400 homers and 300 doubles. Also, would you believe he only had 4 RBI in his entire career as a pinch-hitter prior to Saturday’s game? Then he got 3 RBI with one swing. Stanton has not been an effective pinch-hitter (career 5-for-46), but still, I figured he would have driven in more runs than that … Leiter has been banished to low leverage work and he finally had his first 1-2-3 inning as a Yankee on Saturday. He went 1-2-3 in the seventh. He allowed two runs in the sixth, so it wasn’t a clean outing, but you have to start somewhere. The Yankees managed to make the bullpen worse at the trade deadline. That’s unfortunate … Rough few games for Volpe defensively. Almost yippy. Even a few plays he did make were dicey (video). Defense can slump too and Volpe needs to snap out of it quickly. He doesn’t do enough with the bat to make up for shoddy glovework …  And finally, the pitch clock violation on Oswaldo Cabrera to lead off the ninth inning Saturday was the correct call. It doesn’t matter that Helsley wasn’t on the mound. The clock starts when the pitcher receives the ball, not when he gets on the rubber, and the hitter has to be in the box and alert to the pitcher at the eight-second mark. Cabrera wasn't, so he was dinged with a strike. Strike three, in this case. You can say it’s dumb the hitter can get hit with a violation when the pitcher isn’t on the mound, but it was called correctly in that spot. “It’s completely my fault,” Oswaldo told Erik Boland after the game. It is what it is.

Injury updates

Schmidt (lat) will make another rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Monday, which is usually an off-day in the minors, but some leagues are playing on Labor Day. It will be Schmidt’s third rehab start. He threw 46 and 55 pitches in his first two, so figure 65-70 pitches Monday … Gil (back) made a rehab start with Somerset on Sunday: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K (video) on 80 pitches. Boone said there is a “very good chance” both Gil and Schmidt are back in the rotation this coming weekend. The Yankees start a stretch of 10 games in 10 days Friday. Maybe they’re going with a six-man rotation for the time being? … Cody Poteet (triceps) made his third rehab start Friday: 3.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K (video) on 47 pitches with Somerset. His 30-day rehab window runs through Wednesday, Sept. 18th. I wonder if the Yankees will max out the 30 days to delay making a 40-man roster move to activate him off the 60-day injured list. Poteet’s collecting big league pay and service time while on the MLB injured list. For him, staying on rehab for the full 30 days is better than being activated and optioned to Triple-A, and it allows the Yankees to kick the 40-man move can down the road … Hamilton (lat) was scratched from Friday’s rehab game with back spasms. He is still shut down. No word on when he’ll return to the mound … Berti (calf) is 4-for-19 (.211) with a homer through seven rehab games with Somerset. He still hasn’t played a full nine innings in the field, though I’m not sure that’s necessary. Rizzo and Jose Trevino maxed out at seven innings in the field before coming off the injured list … And finally, Caleb Durbin was placed on the Triple-A injured list Sunday. He doubled and stole third base in his first at-bat Saturday, then was removed an inning later. Not sure what the injury is, exactly. Scranton’s season doesn’t end until Sept. 22nd, so if it’s a minor injury, there’s still time for Durbin to come back and play a few more games.

Up next

The Yankees head out on a seven-day, six-game road trip through Texas and Chicago. It’s their second to last road trip of the regular season! Here are the next few days:

• Monday at Rangers: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Jack Leiter (8pm ET on YES)

• Tuesday at Rangers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (8pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday at Rangers: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Nate Eovaldi (8pm ET on Amazon)

• Thursday: off-day

Leiter is Al's son, Mark Jr.'s cousin, Volpe's former high school teammate, and also a former Yankees draft pick. The Yankees took Volpe in the first round in 2019 and Leiter in the 20th round. They signed Volpe away from Vanderbilt, but not Leiter. It was known he'd go to school, which is why the Yankees took him in the 20th round, not the first or second. Leiter was the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, though his prospect stock has taken a tumble since.

The Yankees took two of three from the Rangers at Yankee Stadium three weeks ago. The Rangers are 65-72 overall and on pace to win 77 games. Texas has to win 16 of their final 25 games to avoid being the first defending World Series champ with a losing record since the 2014 Red Sox went 71-91. I would like the Yankees to not contribute to those 16 wins the Rangers need.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)