August 30th, 2024: Nationals Series, Injury Updates, Mailbag

Jazz Chisholm Jr. slugged a solo home run in the eighth inning Monday (video) and, in the grand scheme of things, it didn’t mean much. It put the Yankees up four, they won by three, yadda yadda yadda. But that home run is notable because it was the Yankees’ 674th run of the season. They scored 673 runs all of last year. The 2024 Yankees have officially outscored the 2023 Yankees, and there’s still 28 games to play. Amazing what happens when you add Juan Soto and Aaron Judge doesn't run into the Dodger Stadium wall. Only 28 games though, eh? Season is flying by. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees have played 134 games this year. In their first 67 games, they went 46-21 with a +111 run differential. In their last 67 games, they’re 32-35 with a +15 run differential. They’ve been mediocre as long as they were great. That nearly every other team at the top of the standings (Guardians, Orioles, Phillies, etc.) has been in a similar stretch of mediocrity makes me feel only slightly better. At the end of the day, I only care about the Yankees, and I would like them to start playing better than they have these last 67 games. Here are a few thoughts on the Nationals series.

You’re supposed to beat bad teams

Going 7-8 against the Angels, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, and White Sox just isn’t good enough. The road to the AL East title is paved with wins against bad teams and the Yankees have left a lot on the table this month. They lost two of three to a Nationals team that has some impressive young talent, for sure, but it is also a team you should beat when you’re in a tight division race. The Yankees lost two of three and might've gotten swept had they not played their best defensive game of the season Monday.

“We didn’t play our best tonight. Tough one,” Aaron Boone told Joe Trezza after Tuesday’s loss, though he could have said that after any number of games this month.

Carlos Rodón’s meltdown Wednesday was honestly impressive. PitchCom glitched out and it led to a run-scoring balk and forgetting to hold baserunners. Poor Austin Wells has to wear it on his caught stealing rate, but those steals were on Rodón, who didn’t bother to check runners. Eventually the Yankees got through to him (five steals in the first two innings and none thereafter), but by then it was too late.

“We just have to do a better job mixing looks and holding runners. Gotta make some better throws,” Wells told Greg Joyce. “I don’t think it’s on the PitchCom or anything. It’s on us.”

Letting DJ LeMahieu bat in the ninth inning Tuesday was obviously stupid. LeMahieu’s beyond his expiration date and Boone said he let him hit because Kyle Finnegan has reverse splits, which is true, but it also demonstrated Boone’s lack of feel and inability/unwillingness to adjust to what’s happening in front of him. Lefties smoked the ball against Finnegan that inning … 

… and the fact Boone pinch-hit for LeMahieu against Finnegan in a similar situation the next night is an acknowledgment letting him hit Tuesday was dumb. At least Boone learned and admitted his mistake, I guess. Chances are the Yankees lose even if LeMahieu is pinch-hit for Tuesday, but at least give the team the best chance to win, you know? I can’t believe I’m sitting here eagerly awaiting Anthony Rizzo’s return. I didn’t think such a thing was possible in the year 2024. The first base situation has been that bad.

That all said, Tuesday’s game was not lost in the ninth inning. It was lost in the first six innings, when the Yankees rolled over for Patrick Corbin. And I do mean rolled over. Fourteen balls in play, nine ground balls. The 64% ground ball rate is top 30 among Corbin’s 319 regular season starts. Tuesday was his seventh scoreless start in the last five years, and in one of the seven he left with two outs in the first with back spasms. The Yankees got silenced by MacKenzie Gore on Wednesday too. I swear, if I hear the YES broadcast say “[lefty with middling numbers] looks sharp against the Yankees tonight” again, I’m going to lose my marbles.

Because the Nationals started three lefties, the Yankees scored only nine runs in three games, and that’s not gonna cut it. They continue to be a righty bat short. Have been all year. Juan Soto went hitless in the series and Aaron Judge banged into a double play with the bases loaded Tuesday, and Giancarlo Stanton still weirdly can not hit lefties. I don’t understand what’s happening here:

2023 Stanton vs. LHP: .265/.324/.618 (150 wRC+)
2024 Stanton vs. LHP: .231/.270/.380 (81 wRC+)

2023 Stanton vs. RHP: .175/.264/.376 (73 wRC+)
2024 Stanton vs. RHP: .241/.310/.526 (132 wRC+)

This is the first time in Stanton’s career he hasn’t hammered lefties. I don’t get it. Regardless, when Judge and Soto (and to a lesser extent Stanton) don’t hit, the Yankees have a hard time scoring. That goes for every team, right? When Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani don’t hit, the Dodgers struggle to score. Same with the Phillies with Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, the Astros with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, etc. I know this is how the game works. I’m still annoyed. Let me vent.

The Yankees scratching across five runs Monday without Judge and Soto contributing was a happy accident, not a sign the tide is turning. Tuesday and Wednesday are my evidence. All of the team’s problems were on display the last two days. The lineup is top heavy, the defense is careless, the ace isn’t very ace-like this year, the No. 2 starter seems incapable of handling the slightest bit of adversity, and the manager doesn’t make the best use of the players available to him. A well-earned series loss.

Miscellany

Nestor Cortes had the ugliest 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR line possible Monday night. The defense was incredible all game – Nestor did strike out three to stand the bases loaded in the sixth, which was cool (video) – with Judge turning a possible home run into a double play the biggest highlight (video). It was only the third 8-4-3 double play in Yankees history, per Erica Block, and it was also Judge’s ninth home run robbery since 2018. That leads baseball. He leads baseball in home runs and home run robberies over the last seven years. Having a literal giant in the outfield has its perks … Rough, rough few days for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at third base. Errors aren’t the best way to evaluate defense, but in this case, five errors in four games tells the story. Such is life when a player is learning a new position on the fly. This play in particular stands out as an example of Chisholm having a second base clock at third base. “Still learning,” Boone told Gary Phillips about Jazz at third. At least he’s mashing dingers. Nine in 20 games as a Yankee now … And finally, can the Yankees please get Anthony Volpe a helmet that fits? He damn near ran into a concussion Monday (video). You should protect everyone’s head, and especially the one that belongs to the kid you think is your franchise shortstop. The line being parroted is that Volpe is between sizes, but my dudes, it’s 2024 and you’re the Yankees. Get one custom made. Come on already.

Roster moves

Michael Tonkin was indeed claimed off waivers after being DFAed last Sunday. He went back to the Twins. Tonkin has gone from the Mets to the Twins to the Mets to the Yankees to the Twins on waivers since April. See you in the ALDS, Mike … The Yankees claimed outfielder Duke Ellis off waivers from the Mariners earlier this week. He’s another postseason pinch-runner candidate if the Yankees decide to carry one. Ellis, 26, can’t hit (career 86 wRC+ in the minors), but he is 51-for-55 stealing bases in the minors this season. He had a short big league stint with the White Sox earlier this year (and got picked off second in his MLB debut). The Yankees moved Ian Hamilton to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot for Ellis. That’s just a paper move. Hamilton has already been on the injured list longer than 60 days. He can still be activated at any time. 

Injury updates

Clarke Schmidt (lat) made his second rehab start Wednesday: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K (video) on 55 pitches with Triple-A Scranton. Sounds like he’s going to make at least one more rehab start before rejoining the Yankees … Luis Gil (back) threw live BP on Tuesday and there’s a chance he’ll be activated next Thursday, the first day he’s eligible to come off the injured list. Things are lined up for Gil to make a rehab start this weekend, then be ready to pitch when he’s activated Thursday … Rizzo (arm) played first base in a rehab game for the first time Tuesday. He is 2-for-8 with a homer, two walks, and four strikeouts through four rehab games. Rizzo was in New York to be evaluated Thursday. Methinks he’ll be in the lineup Friday night, but we’ll see … Jon Berti (calf) is 2-for-10 with a homer, a walk, and four strikeouts through four rehab games. Hamilton (lat) has retired all seven batters he’s faced in his two rehab games, six via strikeout. Cody Poteet (triceps) is lined up to make his third rehab start this weekend. And with that, we’re getting closer to the cavalry arriving. Here are the possible roster moves in rough order of when they they figure to happen:

• Ben Rice sent down for Rizzo.

• Berti takes the extra position player spot on Sept. 1st.

• Hamilton takes the extra pitcher spot on Sept. 1st.

• Will Warren sent down for Gil.

• Phil Bickford DFAed to clear a spot for Schmidt.

• Poteet activated and optioned to Triple-A.

The Yankees are not going to DFA LeMahieu or Alex Verdugo. To call up Jasson Domínguez, they’ll have to send down Oswaldo Cabrera (and use Berti as their backup shortstop, not that Volpe ever sits) to make room on the roster, assuming there are no other injuries. Or maybe they DFA Berti? How much are you getting from a 34-year-old speed guy coming off a major leg injury? I doubt it happens, but I suppose the chances are not 0%. Point is, I don’t think it’s a given El Marciano comes up in September. The Yankees will need to open 40-man spots for Berti, Hamilton, Poteet, Rizzo, and Schmidt. Bickford, Ellis, Josh Maciejewski, Tim Mayza, and Anthony Misiewicz are most likely to get DFAed. The Yankees could also call up Clayton Beeter (shoulder) and/or Everson Pereira (elbow) and put them on the 60-day injured list. They’d collect big league pay and service time the last few weeks of the season, but a) who cares?, and b) that would open two 40-man spots without cutting anyone, preserving depth. I reckon the roster will look a bit different come Tuesday’s post. (The Yankees did the call up and 60-day injured list thing with Gil in Aug. 2022, after his Tommy John surgery. It’s been done.)

Up next

The quick road trip is over and now the Yankees are back home for a quick homestand. Three games against the nosediving Cardinals this weekend, then a six-game trip through Dallas and Chicago’s north side. Here is the schedule this weekend:

• Friday vs. Cardinals: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Erick Fedde (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Saturday vs. Cardinals: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday vs. Cardinals: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Monday at Rangers: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (8pm ET on YES)

Insane stat: St. Louis is in danger of having a losing record in back-to-back uninterrupted seasons for the first time since 1958-59. Ignore seasons with pandemics and work stoppages, and the Cardinals have not had two straight sub-.500 years since the late 1950s. Pretty wild, eh? They went 71-91 last year, their first losing season since 2007, and they enter the weekend at 67-67. 

One of my favorite non-Yankees is Cardinals center fielder Victor Scott II. He hasn’t hit at all as a rookie this season – .175/.215/.286 (38 wRC+), though he’s been a bit better of late – but man is he fun. Scott might be the fastest man in baseball and he shows it off in the field and on the bases. He’s one of those electrifying, can’t take your eyes off him athletes. I hope he hits long-term, just not this weekend.

Also, righties! All three opposing starters this weekend are righties. Thank goodness. My guess is Warren goes down after Saturday’s game regardless of his performance. There’s another off-day next Thursday*, so the Yankees can push back that rotation spot as far back to Tuesday, Sept. 10th. Gil and/or Schmidt should be back then. Might as well carry an extra reliever in the meantime.

* The Yankees flipped Stroman and Warren this time through the rotation and there's no doubt in my mind they lined up Warren to pitch Saturday specifically so they use Thursday's off-day to skip that rotation spot. Had they kept everyone on turn, Warren would have started Friday, and been needed to start next Wednesday. Instead, they flipped Warren and Stroman, and can skip Warren's next start.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Cardinals put Tommy Pham on waivers Thursday and the Yankees should claim him. He's merely good against lefties now (.232/.323/.439 and 115 wRC+), not great, but the Yankees have been a righty bat short all year, and a platoon partner for Alex Verdugo is the easiest place to add one. The right side of the plate is Jasson Domínguez's weaker side (.208/.240/.292 vs. LHP this year). I don't think he's the answer to the team's issues with southpaws. Pham's only owed about $500,000 the rest of the season. He's the best you're gonna do this time of year. Claim him, Yankees (Robbie Grossman is also on waivers. He's a switch-hitter who's much better against lefties, though at this point of his career, it's all OBP with little SLG) … And finally, the joint YES Network and MSG Network streaming app – GAME for Gotham Advanced Media and Entertainment – is coming soon. In time for the start of the NBA and NHL seasons in a few weeks. GAME was officially announced earlier this week and you’ll get the Yankees, Knicks, Nets, Rangers, Islanders, and Devils in one place. (The Mets are separate. They have their own thing going with SNY.) Here is the pricing:

• GAME: $360 per year or $42 per month

• YES app: $240 per year and $25 per month

• MSG+: $280 per year and $30 per month

GAME is cheaper than the combined cost of the YES and MSG services, so if you’re a cord cutter who subscribes to both, GAME is the better option. And if you have cable, you don’t need a GAME subscription. You just log in with your cable provider and you’re set, like you are with the YES and MSG apps now. The YES and MSG apps are really buggy. I hope GAME cleans that up, but I won’t hold my breath. That’s just how apps are these days.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: Should the Yankees claim Thairo Estrada or Taylor Rogers?

The Giants put Estrada, Rogers, and Tyler Matzek on waivers earlier this week. It’s a last minute salary dump attempt. The postseason roster eligibility deadline is 11:59pm ET on Saturday. Matzek is on the injured list with an elbow issue, so forget him. Estrada’s been horrible – .217/.247/.343 (64 wRC+) and -0.5 WAR! – and will get non-tendered this offseason. Even with their infield, he doesn’t help the Yankees.

Taylor, the left-handed half of the Rogers twins, is having a pretty good season: 2.45 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 28.2 K% and 7.7 BB%. He’s had issues with lefties (.273/.356/.416 and .340 wOBA), which is unusual. Rogers has been really good against same-side hitters throughout his career. Last year he held them to a .101/.206/.124 (.167 wOBA) line with 37.9 K%. It’s a .242 wOBA for lefties for his career.

Now 33, Rogers gets strikeouts and limits hard contact, and if you do that, chances are you’ll be useful. He’s on waivers to dump salary. Last month I noted Giants ownership is grouchy about the team’s luxury tax status, and they might cut payroll next year. Rogers is owed $2M or so the rest of this season plus another $12M next year. The Giants are hoping some team takes that salary.

The Yankees could use another lefty reliever (Tim Mayza ain’t it) and Rogers has shut down lefties every year of his career except this season. The hangup is the $12M salary next year. I’m not opposed to paying top dollar for a top reliever, though the Yankees probably don’t want to take that on, especially with Juan Soto’s free agency looming. For baseball reasons, yes, the Yankees should claim Rogers because he’s better than Mayza. The money makes it (very) likely it won’t happen. I bet he clears waivers and stays in San Francisco. Estrada and Matzek too.

(The $12M salary next year is the only reason a pitcher as effective as Rogers will get to the Yankees on waivers. Anyone who's good and affordable will get claimed long before the Yankees come up in the waiver order, which is based on the reverse order of the standings.)

Ray asks: Will Hal feel like he has to choose between retaining Cole or signing Soto? He shouldn't HAVE to make ANY choice because he has more money than Midas and can sign them both. But given his past payroll comments, I can see him telling Cashman (and I bet he's back) that you can have one or the other. How do you see this? And if the hypothesis is true, who would you keep (seems Soto is the easy answer)

I can’t speak for Hal Steinbrenner, but I don’t get the sense Gerrit Cole will stand in the way of re-signing Juan Soto. I’m certain the Yankees want to re-sign Soto and traded for him with the intention of re-signing him. I am less certain they’ll make the highest offer (these are Hal’s Yankees, after all), but I think they badly want to re-sign him, and have always planned on having Cole and Soto long-term.

If it is Cole or Soto, and Cole opts out, then the Yankees have to let Cole walk and prioritize Soto. That’s not crazy, is it? Objectively, you let the soon-to-be 34-year-old ace pitcher with a ton of innings on his arm go so you can sign the soon-to-be 26-year-old superstar hitter. We’re starting to see the cracks form in Cole, right? He had the elbow injury earlier this year (no structural damage, but still an elbow injury), he had a start pushed back because of fatigue, he’s been good but not really dominant, etc. I don’t think it’s one or the other though. I think the Yankees have always planned on having both.

Anthony asks: Maybe this is blasphemy but do you see a situation where the Yankees let Cole walk if/when he opts out and pursue Corbin Burnes? What do you prefer? What would be better for the 2025 Yankees and beyond outside of age being on Burnes’ side? Is there a scenario where keeping Cole and not pursuing Burnes is better?

My guess is the Yankees would keep Gerrit Cole, though letting him leave and replacing him with Corbin Burnes, who is four years younger and a comparable pitcher, is a conversation worth having. Not right now, but in the offseason. I mean, who will be better the next five years? Cole from ages 34-38 or Burnes from ages 30-34? You’re gonna have to pay for Burnes’ age 35-38 seasons to get his age 30-34 seasons, but that’s business. Prioritize the next few years and maximize the window while Aaron Judge is in his prime.

Like the Yankees, the Orioles have been playing .500-ish ball the last few weeks, and Burnes had a rough August: 7.36 ERA (4.81 FIP) in five starts. Wednesday night he gave up six runs in five innings to the Dodgers, though only one of the six was earned, so that ERA is deceptively low even while being really high. What's going on here?

Burnes told Steve Melewski he’s no longer chasing strikeouts and is willing to let hitters put the ball in play with two strikes, and I guess I can buy that, but his home run rate is up, his barrel rate is up, etc. From 2021-22, Burnes was arguably the best pitcher in the world (2.17 ERA and 2.46 FIP with 32.8 K%). The last two years he’s merely been great (3.32 ERA and 3.76 FIP with 24.0 K%) rather than a best in the sport type. Come the offseason, Burnes is worth a deeper dive. Seems like there’s some not great stuff going on under-the-hood.

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees will keep Cole this offseason. If he opts out, they’ll pick up the club option and that’ll be that. And if they are open to letting Cole leave, signing Burnes to replace him is something that should be considered. The timing isn’t great – they'll have to make a decision about Cole’s option long before free agency really heats up – but it is what it is. I’m not ready to go all in and say hell yeah go get Burnes and let Cole leave. I want to look into Burnes more. It’s not a crazy idea though.

Harrison asks: With Rizzo coming back soon, it got me thinking whether the team is annoyingly closer to picking up his option for next season then it would appear on the surface. With the buyout, it's essentially an $11 million question. Looking at the free agent market for first base, it's hard to see the team pursue Alonso unless they lose out on Soto (of course, they would have to pick up Rizzo's option before Soto hits free agency, so they can't wait to find out) and there is not a clear #2 who you can get excited about (unless you count Bellinger, who is not guaranteed to become a free agent and who only plays first occasionally). Given the effective low relative cost of his option, if Rizzo can show that he is not totally cooked in September -- let's say he can put up a league average 100 OPS+ in 15 games while playing in the field -- is that enough for the team to bring him back? Or, might the Yankees let him go and stick DJ there full time (welp).

Anthony Rizzo’s $17M club option comes with a $6M buyout, so yes, it is an $11M decision, both in terms of real dollars and luxury tax. Rizzo is beloved in the clubhouse and is best buds with Aaron Judge (I worry that will carry weight), but the guy has hit .204/.282/.296 (65 wRC+) in almost 500 plate appearances since the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. His defense has taken a step back too. Rizzo turned 35 earlier this month and has been unproductive most of the last two years. Even if the Yankees want to bring him back, I bet they could decline the option and re-sign him at a lower salary ($5M?).

As for first base possibilities, Christian Walker will be a free agent, and he’s been a consistent 30-homer, 120 wRC+, Gold Glove defense player the last three years (the numbers and eye test agree Walker’s the best defensive first baseman in the game, he’s great). The downside is he turns 34 in Spring Training, so his next step could be the one that takes him over the cliff. I’m pretty sure I’d rather have Walker on whatever contract he gets than Pete Alonso on whatever contract he gets. Carlos Santana is still reasonably productive and could be a cheap one-year option. He’s also 38, so yeah.

The Rays will probably trade Yandy Díaz and he's worth further investigation given the sudden decline in walk rate, but he’s a possible fit. Productive hitter, affordable ($10M in 2025 with a $12M option for 2026), etc. Just eyeballing depth charts, maybe Jake Burger if the Marlins continue their tear down? Would the Tigers sell low on Spencer Torkelson? Doesn’t look like a great first base market this winter. Rizzo returning would not surprise me – it would disappoint me, but not surprise me – but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk. First base is gonna be interesting this offseason. Not sure what the Yankees are going to do.

Steve asks: The Yankees should probably extend Volpe and maybe Wells, right? I mean I understand the hesitance for extensions, especially since Wells is already 25, but if the Yankees aren't going to sign a bunch of free agents, don't they need to extend some of their own guys below market at some point? Granted, they haven't really had any great candidates and the few extensions they did blew up immediately (Hicks/Severino). I know Volpe hasn't hit much at all but even this version of him is extremely valuable, right? And Volpe is set to be a FA at like 28, wouldn't it make sense to get a couple FA years? If they're going to pay 4 players (Judge/Soto/Cole/Rodon) about 152M it's going to be nearly impossible to get under the luxury tax threshold anyways. Assuming Soto gets around 50M.   

I don’t think an extension for either is a priority right now. If the Yankees truly believe in Anthony Volpe as much as they say they do, then now’s the time to extend him, before he breaks out offensively. The biggest discount comes before the breakout, not after. Right now Volpe’s a +3-4 WAR player and it’s all defense, and defense doesn’t pay well in arbitration. An extension would be more about keeping him beyond his six years of control, not necessarily saving money. Just to spitball some numbers:

• 2025: $1M (last pre-arb year)

• 2026: $3M (first arb year)

• 2027: $5M (second arb year)

• 2028: $9M (third arb year)

• 2029: $15M (first free agent year)

• 2030: $18M (second free agent year)

• 2031: $20M club option (third free agent year)

That six years and $51M with an option that can push it to seven years and $71M. The Rockies gave Ezequiel Tovar, who is similar to Volpe as a glove over bat shortstop, seven years and $63.5M in Spring Training. He signed that deal when he was five years away from free agency, not four like Volpe will be this offseason. Tovar will make $58M during the final six years of his contract, the same six years covered by the Volpe extension I just spitballed. So maybe I’m a bit light. It’s in the ballpark though.

As for Austin Wells, he turned 25 last month and the Yankees control him through age 30. The position is changing because the one-knee down catching stance reduces wear and tear, but it’s still a brutal position, and few catchers are worth big bucks in their early 30s. I love Wells, he’s awesome, but I’m cool going year-to-year with him. For reference, Willson Contreras made $20.775M in his three arbitration years, and he was a multi-time All-Star. Does something like six years and $50M make sense for Wells? That buys out one free agent year and takes him to age 31.

Joshua asks: Who is in our Playoff rotation and Bullpen? Let’s factor in that when Gil and Schmidt return, 2 starters may become relievers. Let’s also remember Effross, Trivino, and Hamilton. Rodon and Stroman are so hit-or-miss that it’s scary.

We’ll definitely dive into the postseason roster more deeply in the coming weeks. For now, I think nine pitching spots are accounted for:

Game 1 SP: Gerrit Cole
Game 2 SP: Carlos Rodón (we all know he’s starting Game 2)
Game 3 SP: Marcus Stroman I guess
Game 4 SP: TBD

Closer: Clay Holmes
Setup: Jake Cousins, Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver
Lefty: Tim Hill
Middle: TBD, TBD
Swing: Nestor Cortes

I think those nine guys are locked into postseason roster spots. Nestor chews up lefties (.234 wOBA and 25.6 K%), so there’s room for him in the postseason bullpen, plus he might be the Yankees’ best option to start Game 4 if Luis Gil’s worn down and Clarke Schmidt doesn’t bounce back well from the lat injury. Gil and Schmidt are two of the 12 best arms the Yankees have though. Ideally they get two of the TBD spots.

Candidates for the other TBD spot include Nick Burdi, Scott Effross, Ian Hamilton, Mark Leiter Jr., Ron Marinaccio, Tim Mayza, and I guess Cody Poteet. Hamilton was in the Circle of Trust™ earlier this year so I would say he has a leg up on that TBD spot, though I wouldn’t call him a lock. The opponent will play a role here. For example, the Twins are very lefty heavy, so the Yankees might want Mayza.

Two more things. First, that’s a 12-man staff up there, which I would say is the absolute minimum. I can’t see the Yankees carrying 11 pitchers even with all those off-days in the ALDS. They’re much more likely to carry 13 pitches, though the recent Cam Eden and Duke Ellis additions tell us they’re at least leaving open the possibility of carrying 12 pitches and using a roster spot on a designated pinch-runner.

And second, the Yankees could need their No. 4 starter as early as Game 1 of the ALDS, or as late as Game 4 of the ALCS. The difference between having to play in the Wild Card Series vs. winning the AL East and getting a bye is potentially enormous for the rotation. Just to lay out the schedule:

Those are only two possible scenarios. Things change if you sweep the Wild Card Series, win the ALDS in three or four, etc. But yeah, you might need that No. 4 starter as early as Game 1 of the ALDS, or you might not need him until Game 4 of the ALCS. Other than the Mariners and Phillies, no team has a No. 4 starter they love and trust. The Yankees aren’t alone here.

You can change your roster between the Wild Card Series and ALDS. So, if Schmidt comes back well and is the clear choice to start Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, then leaving Stroman off the Wild Card Series roster is sensible. That gives you another spot for a bona fide reliever – Stroman’s not really the kinda pitcher whose stuff will tick up in the bullpen – and you can put Stroman back on the roster for the ALDS.

Right now, nine pitching roster spots are accounted for, with Gil and Schmidt having a leg up on two other spots. We’ll circle back in a few weeks and look over the entire postseason roster. You know how it is. Spots that look set right now could be up in the air in a few weeks.

Paul asks: Do you think Judge could get his career average up to .300, and keep it there until he retires?

I do not. Judge is hitting .333 this season and that has raised his career batting average from .282 to .289. He’s had to be this good to move his career average up seven points. Figure it’ll take him two more years like this to get his career average up to .300. Then he has to stay there the rest of his career to finish with a .300 average. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, only 37 players have batted 5,000 times and finished with a .300 average. That doesn’t include guys who had a .300 average late into their careers, then dipped under (like Albert Pujols). Judge is incredible, but it is really, really hard to hit .300 if you spend a decade or more in the league. I don’t think he gets there. He’ll have to hit 600 home runs to make up for it.

Frank asks: Fun little thought crossed my mind as i was watching old timers day the other day. How good a team would a combination of the 2009 and 2024 team be? If you got to pick 5 players from the 2009 team to strengthen the 2024 team who are we going with? How many games would that team win?

Mark Teixeira at first base and Alex Rodriguez at third base are two of my five picks no questions asked. First and third bases have been so, so bad this year. CC Sabathia in the rotation and Mariano Rivera in the bullpen are my next two picks. Those four feel pretty obvious to me. There are several good options for the fifth spot. I could go Robbie Canó at second, Johnny Damon in left, Andy Pettitte* in the rotation, or any number of relievers in the bullpen (Al Aceves, Phil Hughes, David Robertson, etc.).

* A.J. Burnett was better than Pettitte in 2009, (+4.5 WAR vs. +3.4 WAR) but yeah, give me Pettitte over Burnett eight days a week. No offense, A.J. 

Canó (124 wRC+ and +4.5 WAR) and Damon (122 wRC+ and +4.2 WAR) had almost identical seasons in 2009. Gleyber Torres (94 wRC+ and +0.6 WAR) has been better than Alex Verdugo (84 wRC+ and +0.6 WAR), though we’re splitting hairs. Neither has been great. I’d replace Verdugo with Damon before I’d replace Torres with Canó, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone who picks Canó over Damon. I get it.

Ultimately though, I think adding A-Rod and Teixeira to Aaron Judge and Juan Soto leaves the offense in a really good place. I don’t need another bat. I mean, this works:

1. LF Aaron Judge
2. RF Juan Soto
3. 1B Mark Teixeira
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez
5. C Austin Wells
6. DH Giancarlo Stanton
7. CF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. SS Anthony Volpe

Judge has hit leadoff in the past, most notably in Sept. 2022 – he’s a career .352/.466/.711 (224 wRC+) hitter at leadoff! – so put him atop the lineup and let that top four eat. The fifth 2009 Yankee comes down to Pettitte as the No. 3 starter or another high leverage reliever. I think I need a No. 3 starter more? I don’t trust Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman even a tiny little bit, so give me Pettitte over another reliever. In that case, you’re going to war with this pitching staff in October:

SP1: CC Sabathia
SP2: Gerrit Cole
SP3: Andy Pettitte
SP4: Rodón, Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, or Clarke Schmidt

Closer: Mariano Rivera
Setup: Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver
Middle: Jake Cousins, Tim Hill
Others: Whoever isn’t SP4

Sign me up. A-Rod, Pettitte, Rivera, Sabathia, and Teixeira are my picks. Those are the five 2009 Yankees I would add to the 2024 Yankees.

Dan asks: What do you make of Brett Gardner snubbing the Yankees?

Gardner never made it a secret he planned to live a quiet, private life when he was done playing – he said so in no uncertain terms on CC Sabathia’s podcast years ago – and that’s exactly what he’s doing. Also, he last played in 2021. Gardner hasn’t been retired that long. Derek Jeter retired after the 2014 season and didn’t make his Old Timers’ Day debut until 2023. Sabathia retired after 2019 and made his Old Timers’ Day debut this year. It sometimes takes a few years for these guys to warm up to the idea of being Old Timers. Only Brett knows how he truly feels, and maybe he is really hurt by the way things ended. I hope not, that would be a shame, but if that’s how he feels, then that’s how he feels. Hopefully the fences can be mended soon if that is the case. Gardner was always going to disappear from the public eye after retiring and he hasn’t been retired that long. I would have loved to have seen him at Old Timers’ Day, but I don’t think this rises to the level of “Gardner is mad at the Yankees and won’t come to Old Timers’ Day” yet. This is only Year 3 post-Gardner. Let’s give him some time.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)