Thoughts following the 2024 Draft

Gotta call him Hess Truck at 6-foot-5 and 255 lbs., right?

The 2024 MLB Draft is complete and 615 picks were made across 20 rounds. The Yankees neither gained nor lost picks via free agent compensation last offseason, so they had their full allotment of 20 picks. One per round. No more, no less. The Yankees selected 19 college players before taking a high schooler in the 20th round. College heavy is the trend across baseball. It’s not just the Yankees. Here are all their picks.

You never really draft for need because it’s impossible to know what you’ll need 2-4 years down the line, when these kids are actually big league ready, but you will always need pitching, plus the Yankees traded an awful lot of arms the last two years. The Yankees had to replenish the pitching pipeline to some extent and they certainly did that. They used their first seven picks on pitchers, and 13 of their 20 picks on pitchers.

The Yankees made 20 picks this year but not the most obvious one: Teddy Cashman. Brian’s son, an outfielder at Lafayette, went undrafted. MLB shortened the draft to 20 rounds after the pandemic and that has greatly reduced the number of nepotism picks (the Red Sox did draft David Ortiz’s son in the 19th round though). Sorry Teddy, but the game is the game. Let’s now review Yankees’ 2024 draft haul, shall we?

1st round: Alabama RHP Ben Hess

For the first time since Anthony Volpe in 2019, which was a weird year for the blog as we transitioned from RAB proper to the Patreon, I did not write up this year’s first round pick as a possible draft target. I had Hess further down my list and maybe if I’d spent another 5-6 weeks profiling prospects, I would have gotten to him, but he wasn’t a high priority for me. I’ll take the L this year.

“Ben checks off a lot of things for us,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He fits what we are looking for in a potential top-of-the-line Major League starter. Specifically, he’s a big, power right-hander that can throw two breaking balls and can reach up to 97. We think there is even more to come from Ben with our player development program.”

Other than a 34.8 K%, Hess had poor surface numbers this spring (5.80 ERA, 11.5 BB%, 1.71 HR/9), and his injury history includes a stress fracture in his back in high school and a flexor strain in 2023. He was very good around the injury last year (3.22 ERA, 33.6 K%, 5.5 BB% in 36.1 innings) and Hess has gotten Lance Lynn comps because he’s a big sweaty lad who gets tremendous carry on his four-seamer.

Hess had a 33% whiff rate on his fastball this year, an excellent number even for a first round pitcher, as well as a 32% whiff rate on his slider and a 59% whiff rate (!) on his curveball. That 34.8 K% was not an accident. The last few years the Yankees targeted pitchers who needed to improve their breaking ball. This year they gravitated toward guys who already have that wipeout pitch, and Hess has two of them.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Hess as the No. 38 prospect in the draft class. MLB Pipeline had him at No. 44, Keith Law (subs. req’d) had him at No. 54, and ESPN (subs. req’d) had him at No. 57. Baseball America (subs. req’d) has the most informative scouting report. Here are the relevant parts:

Hess has a fastball that sits around 94 mph and has been up to 98-99 with above-average riding life. He complements it with three different secondary pitches. Hess’ mid-80s slider has traditionally been his go-to breaking ball. When executed properly, the pitch features two-plane break and solid depth, but his location of the offering was inconsistent this spring. Hess also throws a mid-70s curveball with 12-to-6 shape and solid depth and a mid-80s changeup with lots of armside life. Like his slider, Hess’ changeup was another pitch he showed less feel for in 2024 compared to his previous years with Alabama. Hess’ four-pitch mix, strong frame and relatively easy delivery give him a chance to start, though he’ll need to rediscover some of the control that he flashed in previous years to do so.

The various scouting reports say Hess has toyed with a sinker and a cutter at times, and Law (subs. req’d) called him “one of the most underrated starters in the draft class … (he has) a full arsenal with multiple 55s or better (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a big extension out over his front side.” Asking around a bit, the thought is Hess will benefit from a pro conditioning program. His body has been soft at times (not that I should talk).

For what it’s worth, Eric Longenhagen says some teams were scared by Hess’ medicals (understandable given last year’s flexor strain) and that he’s expected to sign below slot. With a weak draft class, it seems the Yankees didn’t love who was available at No. 26, so they took a big stuff guy who also allows them to save bonus pool money for later draft picks. (We’ll discuss those later draft picks in a bit.)

The last few years the Yankees sought pitchers who needed to add velocity and/or improve their breaking ball. Think Brendan Beck, Drew Thorpe, etc. Those were the prototypes. This draft class is a departure from that strategy and Hess is at the forefront not only because he’s the first round pick, but because he’s the most extreme example. He has the velocity and breaking ball(s) already.

Keeping pitchers healthy is the riddle every team is trying to solve. Improving control has not been a strength of the Yankees – if anything, they lean into iffy control by encouraging their pitchers to throw the nastiest pitch at all times, which hurts location – though this spring was the first time Hess had strike-throwing issues. There is a track record of throwing consistent strikes, just not a recent one. 

The Yankees are banking on their pitching folks getting Hess back to where he was prior to 2023 in terms of strike-throwing. There are always tweaks to be made and room for improvement, but the power pitcher foundation is in place. As for the injury concerns, well, if Hess had a clean bill of health, he’d probably be a top 15 pick. College starters with mid-90s gas and two breaking balls don’t slip to No. 26 if they’re healthy and performing.

2nd round: Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham

When I launched this year’s draft coverage, I noted there is a Vanderbilt to the Yankees pipeline these days. The Yankees have drafted several players who either played at Vandy (Spencer Jones) or were committed to Vandy (George Lombard Jr., Anthony Volpe) not because they specifically target Vandy kids, but because Vanderbilt and the Yankees value similar traits, so they wind up pursuing the same players.

This was a down year for the Commodores (Vandy did not have a first round pick for the first time since 2018), but the Yankees would not be denied. They used their second round pick (No. 53) on Cunningham, Vandy’s best prospect and the highest drafted Vanderbilt player this year. Some of the prospect rankers consider him a better prospect than Hess:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 39

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 37

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 62

• MLB Pipeline: No. 63

“We love Bryce because he’s another pick that could have top-end starter potential and has already been tested in the SEC,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He’s a quality pitcher and a powerful right-hander with a big fastball that can reach up to 99, a good changeup, and a slider that continues to improve. Bryce has continued to get better, and credit to him on what he has done on his own, his performance in the Cape Cod Baseball League, and the support he received at Vanderbilt.”

Cunningham, 21, pitched to a 4.36 ERA with a 26.6 K% and 9.1 BB% in 84.2 innings this spring, which is quite good considering the SEC average was a 4.99 ERA and .283/.395/.497 slash line this year (yes, really). Last summer Cunningham had a 2.38 ERA and a 25.8 K% in the Cape Cod League, which is more or less a collegiate All-Star league. That’s where the best players in the country play summer ball.

Similar to Hess, Cunningham is a pitch data guy, and he stands out most for a unique power changeup that was one of the top swing-and-miss pitches in the draft class. As soon as the pick was announced, MLB Network put this graphic on the screen:

Generally speaking, you want low spin on changeups because that creates the tumbling action downward, but Cunningham has a high spin power changeup that runs hard away from lefties and in on righties. Devin Williams and his Airbender is the gold standard for high spin changeups, but other changeup specialists like Ryan Pepiot and Trevor Richards (and old pal Domingo Germán) get a ton of spin on the pitch.

Per Baseball America (subs. req’d), Cunningham complements that changeup with a “power fastball that sits 94-95 mph and has been up to 99 in the past … (and a) mid-80s slider that was previously his best swing-and-miss offering (before the changeup emerged).” Like Hess, Cunningham is a three-pitch pitcher with power behind everything. This is what a 2,400 rpm changeup looks like:

Cunningham may get Drew Thorpe comps because they both stand out for their changeups and were second round picks by the Yankees, but those comps don’t really fit. Thorpe has terrific command, it was arguably the best in his draft class, and Cunningham has more power to his arsenal. Thorpe was low-90s when he was drafted and his heater is averaging 91.0 mph in the show this year. They’re not all that similar aside from their draft slots.

The developmental goals here are using more of the plate – Cunningham tends to pitch primarily to his gloveside with his fastball (in on lefties and away from righties) – as well as improving the slider and just his overall delivery and mechanics. The Yankees can definitely help with the slider. His injury history is clean too. All things considered, I think Cunningham is the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year?

3rd round: LSU RHP Thatcher Hurd

If nothing else, Hurd is the most famous player the Yankees drafted this year. He was viewed as a possible first or second round pick out of high school, but he was firmly committed to UCLA, so he went undrafted. Hurd bounced from UCLA to LSU, and from the rotation to the bullpen to back to the rotation. Last year he started and won the College World Series clincher: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K against a Florida lineup that included current big leaguer Wyatt Langford and 2024 No. 6 pick Jac Caglianone (game highlights).

This spring Hurd, 21, continued a frustrating career trend in which he showed good stuff but inconsistent at best performance. He threw 44 innings across nine starts and nine relief appearances, and had a 6.55 ERA with 26.2 K% and 11.1 BB%. Hurd had some terrific individual games, including saving LSU’s season in the Regionals, and also several stinkers. It’s the third round. Inconsistency is usually what you get here.

Similar to Hess, Hurd is a stuff over stats draft prospect, though his stuff is considered a bit below Hess’. Here is MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Hurd shows a quality fastball/slider combination even when he struggles. His fastball ranges from 93-96 mph and tops out at 98 while taking a sharp right turn at the plate. His high-spin slider sits at 84-86 mph and reaches 91 with plenty of horizontal and vertical action … Hurd uses his 78-82 mph curveball rather than a too-firm upper-80s changeup to keep left-handers off-balance, though neither is effective. He's athletic and has a quick arm, so the ingredients are there for at least average control, which would allow him to pitch in the front half of a big league rotation. Some evaluators think his inability to find the strike zone will land him in the bullpen, where both his fastball and slider could play as plus-plus offerings in shorter stints.

The slider and curveball have both pushed 3,000 rpm, apparently, and Baseball America (subs. req’d) says “many scouts think Hurd will be a better pro pitcher than college pitcher” because he lacks refinement rather than stuff or athleticism. I mean, I would hope he’ll be a better pro pitcher than college pitcher. The Yankees certainly think so, hence using the No. 89 pick on a kid with a career 4.84 ERA at UCLA and LSU.

There’s a pattern with the Yankees’ top three picks. They’re all high velocity, high spin pitchers with three pitches. Didn’t perform well in college? That’s okay. Have an injury history (Hurd had a back issue at UCLA)? That’s okay too. The Yankees drafted the hardest, nastiest, widest arsenals available, and will figure out the rest later. They’ve moved away from “we’ll help you add velocity.” These guys already have it.

Also, they’re physically huge. Hess is listed at 6-foot-5 and 255 lbs., Cunningham at 6-foot-5 and 230 lbs., and Hurd at 6-foot-4 and 230 lbs. It’s power stuff and a three-pitch deep arsenal, and also a frame that a) creates extension, and b) old school types will say projects well for durability. Pitchers of all shapes and sizes get hurt. I’m not sure how much size matters. But Hurd, like Hess and Cunningham, has it.

The build-a-pitcher prospects

The middle rounds, that 4th to 9th round range, is where the Yankees have really fared well the last few years. Go back to 2019, and the Yankees got Ken Waldichuk in the 5th round and Hayden Wesneski in the 6th round. Richard Fitts (6th), Will Warren (8th), and Chander Champlain (9th) were mid-round picks in 2021. Chase Hampton was a 6th rounder in 2022. So on so forth.

The Yankees traded most of those guys (only Warren and Hampton remain in the system) but that’s okay. Prospects serve two purposes. You either plug them into your MLB roster or you trade them for MLB help, and being able to consistently turn mid-round pitchers into desirable trade pieces is a valuable skill. (Now the Yankees just have to start hitting on more of these trades. The returns have largely stunk.)

This year’s mid-round picks include Miami RHP Gage Ziehl (4th round) and LSU LHP Griffin Herring (6th round). Unlike Hess, Cunningham, and Hurd, who bring loud stuff and a sketchy track record, Ziehl and Herring are more traditional build-a-pitch types along the lines of Waldichuk, Warren, Wesneski, etc. They've performed and now the Yankees will aim to boost their stuff. Here is Baseball America (subs. req’d) on Ziehl:

A 6-foot, 223-pound righthander, Ziehl is a standout competitor who repeats his delivery well and throws plenty of strikes to maximize his pure stuff … Ziehl has a three-pitch mix but he mostly goes to a 93 mph fastball that has been up to 97 mph in the past and 96 mph this spring. He also has a mid-80s slider that he used nearly 40% of the time this spring. Ziehl has excellent feel to land both pitches, and managed to throw his short sweeping slider for strikes more than 70% of the time. Against lefthanded hitters Ziehl will mix in a mid-80s changeup more frequently, and the pitch does feature solid fading life to the arm side, though none of Ziehl’s three pitches are clearly plus offerings now. Instead he relies on mixing and matching, changing speeds and location and avoiding any free passes that will get him into trouble.

MLB Pipeline says Ziehl’s slider is more cutter-like – Baseball America’s report above called it a “short sweeping slider” and isn’t that two conflicting ideas? how can it be short and sweeping? – and adds that evaluators “laud his makeup and toughness on the mound, wanting the ball in key situations and leading a staff.” The Yankees sure do love their makeup guys. Nothing wrong with that, of course. Just noting it.

Ziehl brings three okay sounding pitches, strike-throwing ability, a good track record, and toughness to the table. The Yankees will try to improve the quality of his stuff to maximize everything else. The gold standard for coaching up this profile is Jordan Montgomery, another Yankees’ fourth round pick. That’s what it looks like when it works. The Yankees will try to repeat their Montgomery success with Ziehl. The 21-year-old had a 3.87 ERA with 21.1 K% and 6.6 BB% in 100 innings this spring.

As for Herring, he was on the same LSU staff as Hurd, and like Hurd he had a signature postseason moment in 2023. In an elimination game against Wake Forest, Herring came out of the bullpen with LSU down 2-0, and struck out six in 4.2 scoreless innings to give the offense a chance to get back into the game. LSU came back to win, and went on to win the national championship (game highlights).

Herring, 21 and a draft-eligible sophomore, had a terrific college career, pitching to a 2.66 ERA with 29.8 K% and 8.8 BB% in 84.2 innings in his two years with the Tigers. He began his career in the bullpen as many freshmen do, and Herring was so valuable in that role that he never got a chance to start. Here's what MLB Pipeline says about the kid:

Scouts believe he has the ingredients to succeed as a starter in pro ball … Herring's money pitch is a sweeping mid-80s slider with horizontal and vertical action that eats up both left-handers and right-handers. His fastball operates at 91-92 mph and maxes out at 94 with some armside run, though it doesn't have enough velocity or life to just throw it by hitters … Herring's delivery isn't the smoothest and his arm action is long, but that hasn't prevented him from significantly improving his strike-throwing in his second college season. To make it as a starter, he'll need to develop better feel for a too-firm changeup that he almost never uses. His slider and competitive edge could allow him to fill a high-leverage role in a big league bullpen.

The Yankees are willing to give college relievers a chance to start in pro ball (the trend started with Chance Adams, plus there’s Zach Messinger, Glenn Otto, Garrett Whitlock, and others) and I’m sure they’ll give Herring a look in the rotation as well. Try it, and if it doesn’t work as a starter, then you put him back in the bullpen, where you know he can be successful. I’m certain Herring will be developed as a starter.

Ziehl needs more velocity and sharper secondaries. Herring needs more velocity and a better changeup, and also to learn how to turn over a lineup multiple times. The Yankees are pretty good at developing pitchers these days – they are also very good at knowing which ones to keep (Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, etc.) – and Ziehl and Herring are their next mid-round projects. Ziehl is really interesting to me. He seems like a potential capital-D Dude.

The arm strength lottery ticket

Every so often the Yankees will roll the dice on a kid with outrageous stuff and no idea how to harness it. Tanner Myatt (2018 11th round) was one of those. Same with Brooks Kriske (2016 6th round). Old heads might remember Sam Elam (2009 8th round). The overwhelming majority of these guys don’t work out, but once a generation one of them turns into Dellin Betances, and you have the best reliever in baseball for a few years.

This year’s dart throw is Vanderbilt RHP Greysen Carter (5th round), who had a 5.63 ERA with more walks (19.5%) than strikeouts (19.0%) in his three years on campus. Things weren’t much better this spring: 6.58 ERA with 20.1 K% and 16.4 BB% in 39.2 innings. The fastball is absurd though. Here’s video and here is a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s scouting report:

Few college pitchers can light up a radar gun like Carter, who operates at 96-99 mph and reaches 103 with a flat approach angle coming out of a high arm slot and explosive carry when he keeps his heater up in the zone. He has shown little feel for spinning a breaking ball or landing one close to the strike zone, with his low-80s curveball marginally more reliable than his mid-80s slider. He also struggles to locate his mid-80s changeup but it bottoms out at the plate when it's working … He has difficulty maintaining consistent mechanics and regressed this spring after making some encouraging progress with his control during the fall. He almost certainly will be a reliever in pro ball after having little success as a starter in college.

The Yankees will work with Carter on his breaking balls and mechanics, but, at the end of the day, either things will click for him and he’ll throw strikes, or they won’t and that’ll be that. He only needs to throw strikes at a below-average rate. Carter doesn’t need to be a control artist to make it at the next level. Luis Gil is getting by with a 12%-ish walk rate. Can the Yankees get Carter there? That’s a goal, realistically.

At some point it’s out of your hands and on the player. The Yankees can employ the best coaches, use the best technology, whatever. Either Carter will learn how to throw strikes or he won’t, and you can only help him so much. History says this won’t work. The minors are full of guys who throw 100 mph and have no idea where it’s going. But maybe, just maybe, things click, and Carter makes an impact.

The bonus pool savers

Most years the Yankees (and many other teams) use a few picks in the 7th to 10th round range on college seniors who have little leverage and agree to below slot bonuses (sometimes as low as $1,000). It saves bonus pool money to use on other players. Where that money is going is often a mystery in real time, but once the senior picks roll in, you know bonus pool shenanigans are afoot. The Yankees grabbed three seniors late on Day 2 this year.

Grand Canyon OF Tyler Wilson (8th round) is the son of former big leaguer Steve Wilson, who had a six-year career as a journeyman lefty with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Rangers from 1988-93. Tyler was born in Taiwan, where his father pitched for a few years, and lived there until he was nine. His family then moved to Arizona. He slashed .378/.441/.691 with 17 homers this spring and was named WAC Player of the Year. 

Wilson, 22, is a switch-hitter who apparently can’t throw after a series of shoulder injuries. I mean, he can physically make throws, there’s just nothing on them. He’s limited to first base, left field, and DH (the Yankees announced him as an outfielder). Wilson can hit a bit though. Good contact rates, good swing decisions, some pop. A four-year college vet like him should wreck rookie ball and Low-A pitching.

Auburn LHP Tanner Bauman (9th round) has a lefty specialist skill set even though lefty specialists aren’t really a thing anymore. It’s a 90-ish mph fastball with a sweepy slider right around 80 mph, and he pitches from a weirdly low arm slot. Bauman’s bigger than the classic LOOGY (6-foot-5 and 225 lbs.), but we’ve all seen dudes like this mosey out of the bullpen and frustrate lefty batters:

The Yankees selected eight pitchers in the top 10 rounds (i.e. the bonus pool rounds) and two outfielders: Wilson and William & Mary OF Joe Delossantos (10th round). Delossantos was born in Queens and spent his childhood on Long Island before his family moved to North Carolina. He’s a fifth year senior who slashed .330/.431/.584 with 14 homers and a 94 mph average exit velocity this spring. Delossantos is a righty bat and a poor defender, and his approach is sketchy. Hits the ball hard, not much else.

Late round notables

Virginia Tech RHP Wyatt Parliament (7th round) had an ugly 7.63 ERA this spring, but also a 31.2 K% and 6.9 BB% in 43.2 innings. And also 14 homers allowed (2.89 HR/9). He’s a low arm slot 95-and-a-slider type. These guys are increasingly popular now that teams know how to optimize fastball angles, etc. Now that the Yankees have a Judge and a Parliament, they just need to trade to get Mike King back, then they’ll be set.

I reckon some (all?) of the bonus pool money the Yankees save with Hess’ reported below slot deal and the senior signs will go to Florida JuCo RHP Mack Estrada (11th round). Estrada, 19, punched out 94 in 79.1 innings this spring and was the best junior college prospect in the draft class. He is a pitch data darling with a 90-96 mph two-seamer, a mid-80s slider, and a mid-80s changeup I’ve been told tunnels very well off his sinker.

Estrada’s a big kid (listed at 6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.) and a former football player who is said to be very intense on the mound. To the point where it’s a detriment because he’ll rush through his delivery. Estrada pitched his way into a scholarship to Florida State this spring and the Yankees will have to buy him away from that. As an 11th round pick, Estrada’s slot value is $150,000, and every dollar over that counts against the bonus pool.

Texas Tech 2B Austin Green (14th round) is a fifth year senior but also a legitimate prospect. He hit .322/.435/.546 with eight homers this year and is a “does a lot of things well but nothing great” type. Green, a switch-hitter, played mostly outfield for the Red Raiders this season, though he has played second base in the past, and the Yankees announced him as a second baseman. They’re trying him there.

Mississippi LHP Xavier Rivas (16th round) is an interesting pick. He tore his UCL in February and had Tommy John surgery, so he didn’t pitch at all this spring. Last year’s 6.35 ERA hides a 28.2 K% and a low-90s fastball, breaking ball, changeup, cutter mix. Rivas told Chase Parham he was cleared to begin throwing earlier this week, though he’s gonna hold off until after the draft to see how that shakes out.

"It went really well,” Rivas told Parham about his latest checkup. “Dr. Meister said the elbow is strong and ready. I can begin with the five-month throwing program if I were to return to school. Not going to start anything until after the draft though. So that if I sign, the team can decide when they want me to begin throwing."

Rivas, 22, has been noncommittal about his future, which isn’t uncommon for Day 3 draft picks. They see what kinda bonus they’re offered, then decide whether to sign or return to school. Chances are the Yankees took Rivas and will hope he signs, but if he decides to go back to school, then he goes back to school. They won’t lose bonus pool money or anything. Four-pitch lefty with a 28.2 K% in the SEC though. Hmmm.

Georgia HS RHP Cole Royer (20th round) is huge (listed at 6-foot-6 and 190 lbs.) and already sitting mid-90s, plus the makings of a breaking ball and a changeup are there. Royer is committed to Georgia Tech and was considered a possible top 10 rounds pick entering the draft. Seems like he and Estrada are the plan for whatever bonus pool money the Yankees save in the top 10 rounds.  

The rest of the class

Kansas State OF Brendan Jones (12th round) is a burner who went 40-for-42 stealing bases in 61 games this spring. There is some pop in his bat too. He slashed .303/.442/.500 with nine homers this year, but Jones is mostly a speed/glove type who really gets down the line from the left-handed batter’s box … Queens University of Charlotte OF Dillon Lewis (13rd round) beat up on Atlantic Sun competition and hit .371/.444/.729 with 22 homers and 20 steals this year. He and North Carolina OF Vance Honeycutt, this year’s No. 22 pick, were the only 20/20 players in the country. Lewis is tooled up and an exit velocity dude, but a disjointed right-handed swing and bad approach hold him back … Wofford OF Marshall Toole (15th round) is a performance guy who hit .375/.461/.617 and went 43-for-46 stealing bases this spring. He hit zero home runs in three summers in various wood bat leagues (396 plate appearances) … Georgia State OF JoJo Jackson (17th round) is a switch-hitter with power and a long swing from both sides of the plate. He hit .310/.394/.655 with 15 home runs in 2024 and has played well in the MLB Draft League this summer (.352/.435/.593 with 12 strikeouts and 10 walks in 20 games). JoJo Jackson is an excellent baseball name. I hope he makes it for that reason … High Point RHP Gus Hughes (18th round) is a High Point legend. He transferred from UNC Charlotte two years ago and this spring he threw 102.2 innings with a 3.77 ERA and 24.9 K%, leading High Point to their first ever Regionals berth. They then eliminated Vanderbilt in chaotic game for their first ever Regionals win. Hughes is one of the most important players in program history. He’s a senior pitchability guy with a low-90s fastball and the standard issue secondaries (curveball, slider, changeup). Major Brody Koerner/Josh Maciejewski vibes here as a guy who might spend six years in the system before getting called up as an emergency arm at age 28. Also, Gus Hughes is another great baseball name … Oakland RHP Brandon Decker (19th round), like Hughes, threw a healthy 102.2 innings this spring, a top 15 mark in the country. He’s another senior and a low-90s fastball guy with a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Seems to me the Yankees used the late rounds to add some innings dudes to a system that lacks them. They’re short on guys who can reliably take the ball and make it easy to avoid overworking the actual prospects.

About the money

Here’s where I say the Yankees will sign every pick in the top 10 rounds and not to worry about the bonus pool. They made those picks knowing exactly what it will take to sign each player. The Yankees have never failed to sign a pick in the top 10 rounds in the bonus pool era (since 2012) and there’s no reason to think that will change this year. If it does, it’ll be a shocker.

The signing deadline is 5pm ET on Thursday, Aug. 1st. Here are the slot values for the top 10 rounds, the rounds tied directly to the bonus pool:

1st round (No. 26): Alabama RHP Ben Hess ($3,332,900)
2nd round (No. 53): Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham ($1,721,200)
3rd round (No. 89): LSU RHP Thatcher Hurd ($838,900)
4th round (No. 119): Miami RHP Gage Ziehl ($606,700)
5th round (No. 152): Vanderbilt RHP Greysen Carter ($440,100)
6th round (No. 182): LSU LHP Griffin Herring ($339,600)
7th round (No. 211): Virginia Tech RHP Wyatt Parliament ($265,800)
8th round (No. 241): Grand Canyon OF Tyler Wilson ($215,100)
9th round (No. 271): Auburn LHP Tanner Bauman ($192,600)
10th round (No. 301): William & Mary OF Joe Delossantos ($181,600)

Hess will reportedly come in underslot and Wilson, Bauman, and Delossantos are all seniors, so expect them to sign below slot too. Those savings will likely be funneled to Estrada and Royer, though it’s possible Royer is just a “backup” pick. If Estrada decides not to sign, the Yankees will throw that money at Royer instead. That kinda thing. Cunningham and Hurd could get more than slot too, and possibly Herring since he’s a draft-eligible sophomore. We’ll see.

The Yankees have an $8,134,500 bonus pool and can nudge that up to $8,541,225 with the 5% overage. The only mystery is how that money will be distributed, and frankly that’s irrelevant to us.

About the farm system

The farm system is not in the best shape at the moment. Too many of my Top 30 Prospects are either hurt or having down years, and there haven’t been many breakouts to make up for it. Add in a few graduations (Luis Gil, Austin Wells, soon Ben Rice) and trades (Keiner Delgado for JT Brubaker, John Cruz for Jon Berti), and it’s fair to say the system is in worse shape now than it was at the start of Spring Training.

One draft alone won’t fix that, the Yankees need guys already in the system to take steps forward, but the draft is a needed infusion of talent. With the caveat that I haven’t spent too much time thinking about this, here are my updated top 10 Yankees prospects, assuming every 2024 draftee signs:

1. OF Jasson Domínguez
2. OF Spencer Jones
3. C Agustin Ramirez
4. SS George Lombard Jr.
5. RHP Will Warren
6. SS Roderick Arias
7. RHP Chase Hampton
8. 1B/C Ben Rice
9. RHP Bryce Cunningham
10. RHP Ben Hess

There is definitely a case to be made for Ramirez over Jones. In fact, Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) has Ramirez as the No. 33 prospect in baseball in this week's midseason top 50 prospects list, a list that does not include Jones. It’s close, and Ramirez is certainly outperforming Jones this year, but Jones still has that unparalleled on-contact damage ability, plus way more secondary value (speed, defense, etc.).

Anyway, Cunningham over Hess because he performed better in college and has the cleaner injury history, and their stuff is comparable. Hurd is an easy top 30 prospect in the system. Probably in the 11-15 range somewhere. Ziehl and Herring seem like top 20-30 prospects to me too. I feel like I would’ve ranked them over some of the guys I had in the 20-30 range on the Preseason Top 30 Prospects List. Anyway, that's the state of the farm system.

Final thoughts

These days I try to avoid good pick/bad pick and good draft/bad draft declarations because, ultimately, we have so little information as outsiders, plus player development is so good. These kids get drafted, teams go to work on them, and then the next year they look like completely different players. Especially pitchers. There is value in the public draft prospect rankings, but we shouldn’t take them as gospel.

My first round preference would have been one of the high school arms who came off the board soon after No. 26, such as Braylon Doughty (No. 36 to the Guardians) or Ryan Sloan (No. 55 to the Mariners), but also I don’t know what those kids were asking. It might not have worked as far as the bonus pool goes. The Yankees passing on exit velocity monsters Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 31 to the Diamondbacks) and Billy Amick (No. 60 to the Twins) is more evidence they’re shifting away from their “exit velocity above all” player evaluation approach.

Again, there was a clear shift in strategy this year. This is the first time the Yankees took a pitcher in the first round since Clarke Schmidt in 2017, and the first time since 2014 they used each of their top five picks on pitchers. Also, when the Yankees have taken pitchers early in recent years, they took guys with a standout tool (Brendan Beck’s command, Drew Thorpe’s changeup, etc.) and a need for improved stuff.

This year they went in the other direction and took guys with big arms and really lively stuff (and also big extension off the mound), but maybe not the control or delivery to get the most out of it. They shifted from good pitchability with a need to improve pitch quality to good pitch quality with a need to improve pitchability. Here’s what Director of Pitching Sam Briend said on a podcast appearance earlier this year:

“We’re looking for guys not who are perfect, not who have perfect deliveries, but the guys we can actually impact. Where are they actually weak? Because you’re always looking to develop, right? If you get that guy who already kinda maximized, we think the delivery is about as clean as it can get for that guy, that might not be the right fit for us. We’re not going after one specific thing. We’re going after individuals – I use the term ‘athletes with feel’ a lot – we’re looking for athletes who have the feel to spin some stuff. Maybe they’re not perfect right now, but can we shape it? Do they throw a couple different breaking balls that we think we can turn into something special? Maybe making adjustments inside the delivery.”

That is pretty much exactly what the Yankees drafted this year. Pitchers with a feel for spinning the ball and present stuff who need to make adjustments within their deliveries. Having that philosophy and executing it are two very different things, but that’s what’s going on with this draft class. The Yankees went for those “athletes with feel” and now have to turn that athleticism into a usable delivery and a functional level of command.

Pitchers carry so much injury risk now. More than ever because the max effort pitching style has gone mainstream. Even the biggest and strongest guys with the prettiest deliveries get hurt. So yeah, the Yankees did assume a lot of risk this draft, especially since some of these guys already have injury histories. Pitchers break, it is the way of the world, but you also need them. You need waves of them, not just a handful.

The “this guy throws 97 mph now” breakout has been a staple of the last few years and this draft class, with a few exceptions (Ziehl and Herring, mostly), doesn’t really lend itself to that. The top arms the Yankees selected already throw hard and have wicked breaking balls. They’ll try to improve everything else – improve their execution, basically – and I don’t know if I love it or hate it. I am kinda fascinated by it though.