July 5th, 2024: Gil, Volpe, Rodón, Ferguson, Rice, Mailbag

As expected, Aaron Judge was named AL Player of the Month for June, which usually happens when you slash .409/.514/.864 (277 wRC+) with 11 homers in said month. He’s currently on pace for 102 extra-base hits (101 if we assume he won’t hit another triple). Judge gave the rest of the league a head start in April and he’s still the best hitter in the sport. A few Player of the Month nuggets:

• Judge also won Player of the Month in May. He’s the first Yankee to win back-to-back Players of the Month since Don Mattingly capped off his MVP season in August and September 1985.

• Judge has eight career Players of the Month. Since 2017, that is twice as many as anyone else. Ronald Acuña and Shohei Ohtani are second with four Players of the Month each.

• Those eight Players of the Month are tied with Frank Thomas for the third most ever. Only Barry Bonds (13) and Alex Rodriguez (10) have more. Some company, eh? (Player of the Month has been around since 1958 in the NL and 1974 in the AL.)

• Bryce Harper won NL Player of the Month in May and June. This is the first time ever the winners in each league both won it in back-to-back months.

I’m pretty sure I’ve written more about the Player of the Month award these last two months than I did in the entirety of my blogging life prior to June. Look what the 2024 Yankees have done to me. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post. I apologize it’s shorter than usual, but yesterday was the Fourth of July, so I took it easy. Everything will be back to normal next week.

1. Weekday thoughts. I gotta tell you, this “fall behind 3-5 runs early, score a few runs to make it a game, then lose anyway” act is getting old. The Yankees are 4-13 with a -38 run differential in their last 17 games. They can't even win an anthem standoff. This team has shown no ability – zero, zip, zilch, none  – to pick itself up off the mat the last few years. Why should I expect this year to be different? I’ll believe this year is different when they give me a reason to believe this year is different. A few thoughts on the last few games. 

Luis Gil is not the same

The line would've been slightly better if Caleb Ferguson could strand an inherited runner once in a while, but that’s three straight clunkers for Gil. He’s allowed 16 runs in his last three starts after allowing 16 runs in his previous 12 starts. Gil’s season numbers are still very good – 3.41 ERA (3.85 FIP) and 3.45 xERA – but he is trending in the wrong direction (as are several of his rotation-mates).

“It’s a tough game,” Aaron Boone told Bill Ladson after Tuesday’s loss. “He is a very young man at this. Again, this is all valuable experience. You want to get it turned around quicker. But it’s a work in progress. You have to keep working alongside him to help him get better.”

The Gil we are seeing now is not the Gil we saw earlier this season, both in terms of the results and the under-the hood stuff. His stuff has changed even though his velocity is holding steady. Here are the numbers quick (July is just the one start so far):

In English, Gil’s arm slot has dropped and his stuff is flattening out. His fastball inducted vertical break – the “life” at the top of the zone – has slipped from 17.9 inches in April to 15.3 inches in his July start. That’s going from excellent to almost exactly league average. His changeup isn’t moving as much either, though several of them sailed up and armside on Gil on Tuesday (including two for HBPs).

Gil’s release point has dropped roughly two inches from April and his four lowest average release points of the season have come in his last four starts. That’s the root of the problem. Gil is releasing the ball from a (slightly) lower slot and it has changed the shape of his pitches for the worse. His arm slot is dropping and his stuff is flat, in old school terms. For what it’s worth, Gil says his delivery is out of whack.

“Later in the fourth, I came in, maybe the delivery wasn’t quite as I wanted. I can’t pinpoint exactly. I wasn’t able to execute my pitches in the fourth and fifth,” Gil told Ladson. “… Overall, things mechanically, you sink into your body to a good point where you feel comfortable. Sometimes you hit bumps when you are competing at this level. At the same time, I feel assured of myself that by working hard, I’ll be able to get out of it and not let things keep happening.”

Boone said he doesn’t believe Gil’s workload is a problem – “I don’t think it’s a fatigue issue. I think it’s a ‘little out of sorts’ issue, and having a harder time correcting on the fly,” Boone told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) – but the Yankees are not going to broadcast to the world that Gil’s out of gas. They didn’t use Monday’s off-day to give Gil extra rest, suggesting they believe he’s in a good place physically.

But the fact of the matter is Gil is up to 89.2 innings, only 19 behind his career high (108.2 in 2021), and we’re in the first week of July. He’s already thrown 85.2 more innings than last year and 64 more innings than the last two years combined. His arm slot is dropping and yes, fatigue could be contributing to that. That’s the preferred outcome, honestly. If Gil is fresh and this is who he is now, that’s a bigger problem.

Clarke Schmidt is working his way back from a pretty serious injury and it’s getting tougher and tougher to count on Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman. With Gil struggling, either because of a mechanical issue or fatigue, the Yankees should probably be in the market for a starter at the deadline. Who saw this coming two months ago? Well, it’s not the most surprising thing in the world. That’s pitching, man.

Gil will start Sunday, then he’ll make one more start next week before the All-Star break. A little break is coming regardless of whether the Yankees believe he needs it. Gil was never going to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-.150 AVG against. That’s just not doable. The crash back to Earth has been more harsh than I expected though. Whatever the cause, this is another problem the Yankees have to solve.

“His arm slot is changing on him, so the fastball profile changes and he loses a little command,’’ Matt Blake told Dan Martin. “Guys go through it in a season. There’s just more focus on him with how good he’s been. Now there’s some regression, and everyone wants to know why. It’s a little bit of everything.”

On Volpe not bunting

Anthony Volpe definitely should have bunted in the ninth inning Wednesday. Instead, he grounded into a double play, and I can’t remember the last time I heard the air sucked out of Yankee Stadium the way it was at that moment. The crowd was alive and trying to will the Yankees to a win, Austin Wells just went from 0-2 to a hard-fought 10-pitch walk, and the top of the order was coming up. Then bam, rally over in an instant. What a letdown.

“I felt like he’s gonna be hard to double up – obviously he hits a perfect ground ball to do that – but wanted to take our shot,” Boone said about Volpe not bunting after the game. “You’re taking a shot with Soto and Judge coming up. Not necessarily getting into a situation where the bunt’s going to be on.”

Volpe doubled in two runs in seventh inning (video), but that was a happy coincidence and not representative of the way he’s swung the bat the last 5-6 weeks. He has been so popup and strikeout prone lately that I thought a bunt was his best chance to do something productive. Maybe Volpe doesn’t get the bunt down or even bunts into a double play. That’s possible. Bunts are not automatic. I’d still take my chances.

Getting the bunt down invites an intentional walk, of course. Maybe even two. But get the bunt down and you’ve got a runner on second with one out and Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Ben Rice coming up. They are your three best hitters right now and the Reds couldn’t intentionally walk all of ‘em. At least one of them, likely two, was going to get a chance to swing the bat with the tying run in scoring position. I am generally not a bunt guy, but with the way Volpe’s been going and who was coming up, I’d have called for it.

(What idiot said hit Volpe behind Soto and Judge because he won’t hit into double plays? He almost hit into a GIDP earlier in the game Wednesday too (video).)

I understand letting Volpe swing away. I don’t agree with it, but I understand it. But really, the problem isn’t not bunting. It’s that giving up an out in the ninth inning of a one-run game with your leadoff hitter is even a consideration because he’s been swinging a bat so poorly. Volpe is so focused on making contact that he’s lunging at everything. He’s completely fouled up. It’s one empty, punchless at-bat after another.

Miscellany

Hitters are telling Rodón to stay away from his fastball, and stay away from his fastball he did Wednesday night. He still gave up two homers (including one on his fastball) and three runs in 5.1 innings, so it wasn’t a good start, but Rodón definitely scaled back on his heater:

25.3% four-seamers is Rodón’s lowest rate in a game since June 9th, 2018, when he threw 16.5% four-seamers and 52.6% sinkers. Is it good when your $162M pitcher has to abandon what was the most dominant fastball in the game two years ago in Year 2 of a six-year contract? Maybe we need to pull back on the Matt Blake praise for a little bit … 20 runs and seven homers in Stroman’s last six starts and 30.1 innings. His velocity was down again Thursday and he’s up to a 3.58 ERA (5.14 FIP) on the season. Not for nothing, but Stroman spent the last five years saying he’s better than everyone in the Yankees' rotation other than Gerrit Cole. Maybe show up once in a while when the team needs someone to stop the bleeding? … Ferguson has inherited six runners in his last four appearances (in one of those appearances he started the inning clean) and has allowed five to score. Would you believe he’s allowed only 32% of inherited runners to score this season? The league average is 34%. But yeah, it’s been really bad lately for Ferguson, who has a 5.46 ERA (4.12 FIP) on top of all the recent inherited runners he’s allowed to score. The Yankees went 0-for-2 in lefty reliever trades with the Dodgers this past offseason because Ferguson and Victor González haven’t performed, not because the two prospects they gave up (Trey Sweeney and Christian Zazueta) have been great (they haven’t) … And finally, I did say a Rice homer was coming this week, didn’t I? Blind squirrel, nut, etc. etc. I wish the Yankees would just hit Soto and Judge 1-2 atop the lineup, but Rice in the leadoff spot Thursday is a step in the right direction. His at-bats have been so good and the Yankees are putting their three best hitters in the top three spots of the order. I’ll take it. I don’t think Rice is the long-term answer at leadoff. He’s just the best candidate for the job right now.

Injury updates

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) began hitting and doing other baseball stuff earlier this week. This is the end of Week 2 of what he said he expects to be a four-week absence, so he’s right on schedule. Figure another week of hitting and rehab stuff, then a week of rehab games? Stanton would have to go to Tampa and the Florida Complex League to play rehab games in two weeks though. All the other minor league affiliates have their All-Star break the same week as MLB … The latest Scott Effross (elbow, back) rehab appearance: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K on 15 pitches Wednesday. That was his fifth rehab game. Boone said Effross returning after the All-Star break “could potentially be in play,” per Dan Martin … Jon Berti (calf) went through defensive drills Wednesday. He’s going to travel with the Yankees to Tampa next week, then stay there to begin ramping up his rehab. Berti is eligible to come off the 60-day injured list on Thursday, July 25th. Just in time to go 6-for-17 with six singles in four games, and convince the Yankees they don’t need another infielder at the trade deadline … Caleb Durbin (hand/wrist) was shifted to the Triple-A 60-day injured list earlier this week. The earliest he can return is Monday, July 22nd, which isn’t that far away. Durbin has been out since getting hit by a pitch on May 23rd, so he must’ve broken something. I’m not sure he was ever a realistic infield call up candidate this year, but the .299/.413/.458 (131 wRC+) slash line in Scranton is nice to look at … Phil Bickford cleared waivers and elected free agency after being DFAed last weekend. The scrap heap reliever wheels continue to turn … And finally, Henry Lalane, my No. 7 prospect, is back. He threw an inning in the FCL on Thursday after missing the start of the season with a shoulder issue. All the injured pitching prospects (Lalane, Chase Hampton, Carlos Lagrange) got healthy just in time for the trade deadline. Good timing.

Up Next

The final home series before the All-Star break. Three games against the Red Sox this weekend, an off-day Monday, then a road trip through Tampa and Baltimore to close out the first half. Here are the pitching matchups this weekend:

• Friday vs. Red Sox: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Tanner Houck (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Saturday vs. Red Sox: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Josh Winckowski (1pm ET on YES, FS1)

• Sunday vs. Red Sox: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Kutter Crawford (7pm ET on ESPN, MLBN)

Houck is having a superb year (2.67 ERA and 2.56 FIP), but the home run rate regression monster came for him last start. He surrendered three dingers in 4.1 innings after giving up two homers – two! – in his first 16 starts and 103.1 innings of the season. May the ball continue to fly tonight. And also may the Yankees keep the Red Sox off base so they don’t run wild on Jose Trevino on national television again.

I expect the Orioles to win the AL East, I said so before the season, but the Red Sox are only 5.5 games behind the Yankees for the top Wild Card Spot now. They were 14 games back as recently as June 14th. I know it’s only July and way too early to worry about postseason seeding, but this weekend is important. It’s a chance to keep the Red Sox at bay and not make the standings any tighter than they need to be.

The Yankees are 12-14 with a -12 run differential against AL East teams. They have to be better within the division. You can only expect so much outside help. Starting tonight, the Yankees will play 13 straight games against AL East teams. Is an 8-5 record in those 13 games too much to ask? Maybe I should just be happy with competitive games and not a 5-0 deficit in the fifth inning.

2. 2024 draft prospect: New Jersey HS SS Luke Dickerson. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything. 

Dickerson, 19 next month, is a local kid from the Morristown area. He’s an arrow-up prospect. Dickerson got a late start on baseball this spring because he was busy helping his high school win the state hockey championship, and since getting on the field, everyone’s liked what they’ve seen. He’s now getting early round buzz. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have Dickerson:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 56

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 83 (rankings are a bit outdated at this point)

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 56

• MLB Pipeline: No. 49

In his latest mock draft, Carlos Collazo (subs. req’d) said the Yankees are “one of a handful of teams who seem to have a lot of interest in Dickerson,” so here I am writing about him. A high school shortstop from New Jersey? Why yes, I could see the Yankees drafting one of those in the first round. Here’s video and here is the important stuff from MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

A strong and athletic right-handed hitter and middle infielder, Dickerson has some exciting offensive traits. Some have seen a very good feel for the barrel and an all-fields approach that focuses on the center of the diamond. Others feel his swing is more strength-based than bat speed, but he has a short and simple swing that he repeats easily and has shown the ability to adjust to make plenty of contact. Anyone who has seen him feels there’s plenty of power for him to tap into, some of which was showing up more this spring … Dickerson is a plus runner with some 6.3-60 times to his credit. He has good hands and easy actions, so he could start his career at short, though some feel his arm is a touch short for the premium position. He should be able to stay up the middle, with a move to second or center field distinct possibilities.

Every year one or two of these high school hitters from the Northeast pops up and gains a lot of helium in the weeks leading up to the draft. These kids play like four weeks of high school ball, look bigger and better than they did in showcases the previous summer, and teams run them up draft boards. Jackson Merrill in 2021 is the best recent example of one of these Northeast pop up prospects working out.

(Anthony Volpe was not in this group. Volpe was well-known heading into his draft year.)

Dickerson seems to hit the sweet spot where it sounds like enough teams are in on him that he won’t be around for the Yankees in the second round (No. 53), but you kinda want a little more at No. 26. Not much track record, some questions about the bat – Baseball America (subs. req’d) says “scouts seem mixed on whether his offensive profile will be more power-over-hit or hit-over-power – and his ultimate position, etc.

Last year the Yankees were heavily connected to Sammy Stafura, another one of these Northeast pop up kids, but ultimately passed and took George Lombard Jr., who was a better version of Stafura. (Stafura is out-performing Lombard this year, so maybe I shouldn’t say that.) My guess is the Yankees like Dickerson at No. 53 but not so much at No. 26. On their radar but not a top priority, know what I mean?

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Juan Soto is heading to the All-Star Game. I mean, he obviously was, but he was voted in as a starter alongside Aaron Judge. Judge, Soto, and former RAB Offseason Plan target Steven Kwan will be the AL’s starting outfield (why didn't the Yankees trade Nick Nelson for Kwan like I did? idiots). Here are all the All-Star Game starters. The rest of the rosters will be revealed Sunday. Recent hiccups aside, I expect Luis Gil to be there (the players’ vote wrapped up sometime in June). Clay Holmes is an All-Star Game candidate too … Soto will start the All-Star Game but he is skipping the Home Run Derby. “No, not this year,” he told Erik Boland earlier this week. Can’t say I’m surprised. Soto has a lot on the line this year with free agency coming up. No need to risk injury in a home run exhibition. Soto won the 2022 Home Run Derby and advanced to the second round in 2021. I’m only half-joking when I say Anthony Volpe should do the Home Run Derby. Maybe it’ll remind him how to drive the ball … And finally, Spencer Jones and Brock Selvidge will represent the Yankees in the Futures Game. Jones is the best healthy prospect in the system and he’s been much better the last few weeks, so he was a no-brainer. I had Selvidge among my maybes last month. It’s a down year for AL pitching prospects (it feels like a down year for all prospects, the Futures Game rosters are pretty thin), so second tier guys like Selvidge were able to sneak in. Here are the full Futures Game rosters. Also, the Futures Game will be on MLB Network. They’re not hiding it on Peacock this year.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: Is David Robertson immortal, should the Yankees pursue him, and what would it take to get him?

Now 39, Robertson is humming along doing the usual David Robertson things: 3.34 ERA (2.47 FIP) with a stellar 37.8 K%, a career high 54.8 GB%, and better numbers against lefties (.188 wOBA) than righties (.297 wOBA). On June 12th, Robertson did something no other pitcher has done in 2024: He struck out Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman in order. Then he did it again the next day (video).

The fit is obvious. Robertson is the high-strikeout reliever the Yankees lack, you don’t need to shelter him against lefties, he can pitch in any situation (escape a jam, setup, close, whatever), and he’s New York and postseason battle-tested. Even at 39, the guy is the perfect modern reliever. Excellent and versatile. I’d take eight Robertsons in my bullpen if it were possible. Of course the Yankees should pursue him.

The last time Robertson was a Yankee, the postseason shares thing was reported after he became a free agent, which is still deeply weird. The entire team votes on postseason shares. Robertson had one of 20-something votes, yet the blame was hoisted on him. I don’t get it, but if there are still hurt feelings on either side, then Robertson might not be an option. On the field though, he’s a perfect fit.

The Rangers are 17-31 in their last 48 games and they’re fading out of the postseason race. Their plan was to stay afloat in the first half until their injured pitchers (Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, etc.) returned in the second half, but the offense isn’t holding up its end of the bargain. The team that averaged 5.44 runs per game last year is down to 4.24 runs per game this year. What a fall.

Given the makeup of their roster, the Rangers can’t really rebuild. I think it’s more likely they add pieces at the deadline and try to make a run at a Wild Card spot, but, if they do sell, I would guess they’ll move only rentals and look to reload for next year. Not kick start a long-term project. In that case, Texas would presumably target MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready players in return, not Single-A prospects, you know?

In recent years late inning rentals like Andrew Chafin, Daniel Hudson, and Chris Martin were traded for a role player with long-term control. Chafin (Peter Strzelecki) and Hudson (Mason Thompson) for relievers, Martin for a utility guy (Zack McKinstry). Does that work for a Robertson trade template? Someone like, say, Ron Marinaccio or Oswaldo Cabrera rather than the usual prospects-for-rental package?

The Rangers have some really interesting rentals if they do sell: Robertson, Nate Eovaldi, Max Scherzer (the Mets are paying most of his salary), Kirby Yates, etc. I’m not convinced Texas will sell, but, if they do, they have several pitchers who could help the Yankees, not just Robertson. Robertson rules. He’d be a wonderful addition to the bullpen. (I feel like I write this every trade deadline.)

Paul asks: Luke Weaver evolved into a trusted late inning guy, usually pitching the 8th in close games. On Friday, he had the 7th, with Tommy Tightpants getting the 8th. Is that a function of lanes, or is Kahnle moving up in the pecking order?

Tommy Kahnle’s velocity is ticking up and he’s been very good lately, but I think last Friday was just matchups and the game events forcing a change of plans. The Yankees were trying to snap a four-game losing streak and had a 7-4 lead, and Weaver came in to face the 2-3-4 hitters. He gave up a solo homer and then a double, and had a long seventh inning (26 pitches), so the Yankees got him out of there. I think the plan was to use Weaver, who hadn’t pitched in five days, for the seventh and eighth innings, but the seventh was bumpy, so they changed course. The offense tacked on a few insurance runs in the top of the eighth, which probably made the decision to take Weaver out a little easier too.

(Kahnle threw the seventh inning and Weaver the eighth and ninth in Tuesday’s close game. Safe to say Weaver’s still ahead of Kahnle in the pecking order.)

Ben asks: I know we as fans have been asking this for years, but is there any chance this team slump gets Boone fired? How many years can we go through these long stretches of mediocrity (or outright poor play) with no change? At least this year he’s on an expiring contract.

I think there’s maybe a 2% chance this slump gets Aaron Boone fired, and that’s up from the 0% I would have said the last few years. The Yankees are, at least in theory, operating with more urgency this season, and if things get bad enough, sure, I could see them hitting the panic button and firing Boone. They have a ready-made replacement in bench coach Brad Ausmus, who’s managed before. Boone’s contract is up after the season too. It’s not like Hal Steinbrenner would have to stomach paying two managers the next 2-3 years. I think the chances the Yankees fire Boone are small, hence the 2%, but I also think they’re no longer 0%. It’s much more likely the Yankees reinforce the roster at the deadline and then reassess after the season. They can then make a clean break when Boone’s contract expires.

John asks: If the yanks continue to struggle, at what point should they consider being sellers at the deadline? They have assets, such as weaver, clay, verdugo, and Soto who could fetch a decent prospect haul, and they could always re-sign Soto after the season. It seems a mini-rebuild is probably their best chance to reopen the window  for the remainder of Cole and judge’s contract. Apologies if this is over dramatic, but it’s really the only way to have a sustainable team over the course of a 5-6 year window.

Zero chance they sell. I would lose my marbles if the Yankees sold at the trade deadline. It has never been easier to get into the postseason than it is right now, and once you get in, you have a chance. The 2023 Rangers are evidence. Aaron Judge is in superhuman mode, Juan Soto is in pinstripes and may not be next year, and Gerrit Cole just came back and is beginning to look like himself. How many more bites at the apple do you expect to get with all three of those things being true? Don’t worry about sustainability. The Yankees are the most sustainable franchise in the sport and they have the ability to contend every single year. They don’t need a mini-rebuild. I don’t trust them with young players anyway. Trade prospects for big leaguers and try to win in 2024. I just don’t see how the Yankees can be so bad between now and the trade deadline that selling becomes a consideration. The deadline is only 19 games away. There’s no way to fall so far out of the postseason race in 19 games that selling would be on the table.

Brian asks: With Rodon's last 4 starts shooting his ERA all the way up to 4+, it got me thinking if his way of reaching that ERA (great for two months and then three disastrous starts) is better than someone who more consistently gives up a few runs. If you had to choose one of these three pitchers who each end the season with a 4.50 ERA, who would you choose? 

Pitcher A: will throw 6 innings with 3 ER every start

Pitcher B: will alternate between throwing 7 innings/2 ER and 5 innings/4 ER every 2 starts

Pitcher C: will throw 8 IP/1 ER for 2 out of 3 starts, and on the other start will throw 2 IP/7 ER

My initial thought was Pitcher C because, unless you’re giving up a mountain of unearned runs or have the worst offense in baseball or a horrible closer, eight innings and one earned run is close to an automatic win. We can put numbers on this though. Here are the winning percentages when a team gets one of these starts (2022-24 numbers to get a bigger sample):

• Pitcher A: 6 IP, 3 ER (.457)

• Pitcher B: 7 IP, 2 ER (.652) and 5 IP, 4 ER (.285)

• Pitcher C: 8 IP, 1 ER (.806) and 2 IP, 7 ER (.167)

I’m surprised the 8 IP, 1 ER winning percentage isn’t higher! I would’ve guessed it was over .900. There are sample size issues with Pitcher C – there have been only six 2 IP, 7 ER starts since 2022 – but we’re answering a mailbag question about a hypothetical pitcher who gives you a predetermined result every time he takes the ball. We don’t need to take this too seriously.

Anyway, Pitcher B has a .469 combined winning percentage (one .652 start and one .285 start) and Pitcher C has a .593 combined winning percentage (two .806 starts and one .167 start). Pitcher A is at .457. So yeah, my instinct was correct. Pitcher C is the pick. Those two 8 IP, 1 ER starts are so incredibly valuable – beyond being an excellent start, they also save the bullpen for the next day and allow the manager to be more aggressive with his bullpen the day before – that they more than make up for the 2 IP, 7 ER stinker every third time out.

Adam asks: With the second game against KC in the books, according to the Fangraphs Dollar value, Aaron Judge has now officially surpassed his actual salary for the entire 2024 season. Pretty amazing considering how much money he earns and that the Yankees have only played a touch more than 40% of their regular season games. Do you know who owns the record for the highest Fangraphs Dollar value in a single season and do you think Judge has a shot of eclipsing that this year?

Adam sent this question in during the Royals series (duh). I meant to answer it, and then I just forgot. It got lost in the inbox. My bad. The point stands though: Judge is already providing surplus value despite a $40M salary. He’s at +6.1 WAR and these days teams are paying $8M per WAR, so Judge is at $48.8M in value. In 2022, Judge was at $89.9M. Even last year he was at $38.7M despite missing two months.

The dollar value of WAR changes over time as salaries and payrolls rise, so the dollar value leaderboard is not the same as the WAR leaderboard. It does align closely though. FanGraphs has been calculating dollar values since 2002. Here are the most valuable seasons based on their calculations (hitters and pitchers):

1. Aaron Judge, 2022: $89.9M (+11.2 WAR)
2. Mookie Betts, 2018: $81.4M (+10.2 WAR)
3. Mike Trout, 2018: $75.7M (+9.5 WAR)
4. Mike Trout, 2013: $75.1M (+10.1 WAR)
5. Bryce Harper, 2015: $74.5M (+9.3 WAR)
6. Mike Trout, 2015: $74.4M (+9.3 WAR)
7. Jacob deGrom, 2018: $72.3M (+9.0 WAR)
8. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2011: $72.0M (+9.5 WAR)
9. Ronald Acuña, 2023: $71.8M (+9.0 WAR)

Those are the only $70M+ seasons since 2002. The least valuable player since 2002 is 2011 Adam Dunn, who put up -2.9 WAR and was worth -$22.1M. The White Sox paid him $12M that season, so that’s $34.1M in the red. Ouch.

These dollar value calculations are simplistic. They treat $/WAR as linear even though it’s not. The second win is more valuable than the first, the third is more valuable than the second, etc.. They also treat $/WAR the same across teams. That part definitely isn’t realistic. A +2 WAR player is more valuable to an 86-win team on the postseason bubble than a 65-win team that’s out of the race (or even a 98-win team assured of a postseason berth), and they should be willing to pay him accordingly.

FanGraphs says Judge has provided $372.3M in value in his career. The Yankees will have paid him about $115M in salary by the end of this season. That $372.3M does not include all the tickets he sells, the beer and hot dogs bought by the people who use those tickets, the ad buys that come with increased television ratings because people want to watch the big dinger man hit dingers, etc. Judge’s value to the Yankees is incalculable. Hal Steinbrenner was never letting him get away two years ago.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)