July 2nd, 2024: Rodón, Stroman, Volpe, Soto, Torres, Chisholm

Aaron Judge is officially an All-Star. He led all players in votes in Phase 1 and that got him an automatic starting spot (Bryce Harper got the NL’s automatic spot). This is Judge’s sixth All-Star Game selection and the sixth time he was voted in as a starter in his eight full seasons. He was not an All-Star in 2019 because he got hurt in late April, and he was not an All-Star in 2020 because there was no All-Star Game (Judge was voted in last year but did not play because of the toe injury). Ryan O’Hearn jumped Giancarlo Stanton at DH, so Juan Soto is the only Yankee among the finalists. He’s up against Steven Kwan, Kyle Tucker, and Anthony Santander for the final two outfield spots. Phase 2 ends tomorrow afternoon and the starters will be announced tomorrow night. The rest of the All-Star Game rosters will be announced this Sunday (then replacements will be added over the next week). Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees split four games with the not very good Blue Jays this past weekend, which is a step up from losing the previous four series. They play nothing but blowouts these days, win or lose. The last five games and seven of the last 10 games were decided by 6+ runs, and the Yankees are 2-5 in those seven games. Even with wins Friday and Sunday, it’s been a rough few weeks. Here are a few thoughts on the Toronto series.

Good news and bad news for the pitching staff

The good news: Gerrit Cole looked closer to himself Sunday. He’s not all the way back, his location in particular is not there yet, but Sunday was the best Cole has looked since returning from the injured list: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K on a season high 90 pitches (video). Cole’s velocity was back after that weird in-game dip last time out. He’s getting there. Sunday was a great bounceback after the Mets game.

“It was a good day,” Cole told Erik Boland. “There was a conscious effort to hone in the command a little bit, making sure we’re giving ourselves a chance over the plate. But that’s part of the buildup process. As you keep getting stronger and keep getting going, you’re going to have to tinker here and there. Certainly isn’t where it needs to be, but it was definitely improved. Pretty close.”

The bad news is pretty much everything else, rotation-wise. Six times in the last 10 games the Yankees were down big relatively early, including twice in Toronto. Look at these deficits:

• June 20th vs. Orioles: Down 8-1 in the third

• June 21st vs. Braves: Down 8-1 in the fourth

• June 25th at Mets: Down 6-0 in the fourth

• June 26th at Mets: Down 7-0 in the fifth

• June 27th at Blue Jays: Down 8-0 in the second

• June 29th at Blue Jays: Down 8-1 in the sixth

Carlos Rodón was on the wrong end of that June 27th game. I guess we have to give him credit for getting through five innings after being down 8-0 in the second, but that’s three straight stinkers since I praised him for his outing in Kansas City. Rodón is the first Yankee to allow 20 earned runs in a three-start span since Chien-Ming Wang in April 2009. (Wang pitched through a shoulder injury early that season.)

“They put some really good swings on some fastballs tonight that I didn’t execute,” Rodón told Greg Joyce, stating the obvious. “It was not fun.”

How bad is Rodón’s fastball now? So bad that George Springer* hit two home runs against it Thursday. The pitches were clocked at 96.2 mph and 96.5 mph. Springer had three hits on 96+ mph pitches all season entering the game, and he had not gone deep on a 96+ mph pitch since Aug. 2022. Then he did it twice in one game against Rodón. The radar gun and movement data says Rodón has a good fastball. Opposing hitters say otherwise. They’re hitting .263 with a .526 SLG against his heater, and the expected stats are even worse (.290 xAVG and .608 xSLG).

* Springer entered the series with a 70 wRC+, fourth lowest among qualified hitters. He then went 7-for-11 (.636) with two doubles and two homers in the four-game series. Annoying.

After Springer’s second homer, the Yankees and Rodón realized he needs to stay away from his fastball. He cut back on the fastball (and slider) and threw more changeups and cutters, and was able to save the bullpen some and pitch into the fifth inning.

Rodón was horrible Thursday and he’s been horrible the last three times out. The under-the-hood numbers weren’t great even when he was having success earlier this year, and now the roof is caving in. But it’s not just Rodón. Marcus Stroman couldn’t get through five innings Friday (more on him in a bit), Nestor Cortes’ road woes continued, and the middle relief has let more than one game get out of hand lately.

As recently as June 12th, the Yankees led baseball with only 3.26 runs allowed per game. They’re now up to 3.90 runs allowed per game, seventh fewest in baseball. Still very good! But run prevention was the strength of this team the first two months, and now it’s become a liability. I refer you to all those big deficits I listed above as evidence. Six times in the last 10 games the Yankees allowed at least eight runs.

Cole is getting there. Cortes needs to be better on the road, Rodón and also Stroman need to be better in general, and the Yankees have to figure out the bullpen. It’s really hard to win two of three games every series when you’re giving up runs like the Yankees have lately. No, I don’t think the pitching is actually this bad. Some regression is inevitable. But there are things that have to be ironed out.

Stroman vs. Torres

In the fifth inning Friday, the Blue Jays loaded the bases with no outs, and the Yankees were unable to complete a 6-4-3 double play in which nothing was done incorrectly. Vlad Guerrero Jr. hustled down the line and beat it out. Stroman yelled “throwing the fucking ball bro” at Gleyber Torres, then was shown in the dugout yelling “show a little intensity bro” at no one in particular. Aaron Judge talked with Stroman, then, an inning later, Stroman was the first one out of the dugout to high five Torres after his home run. Any issues were quickly resolved in-house. It’s over and done with. You can see the entire sequence here.

”It was frustrating,” Stroman told Joyce. “At the end of the day, I felt like I made a good pitch and that was a big spot. I wanted to have that turn there. We didn’t and some raw emotion comes out.”

Stroman’s a fiery guy but calling your teammates out on the field is the kinda thing no player appreciates. Torres having a bad year doesn’t justify it. These guys are making plays behind you all year. Showing up your teammates on the field is a universal no-no and why Judge stepped in as quickly as he did. Also, maybe don’t call out a teammate when you’re crapping the bed? Stroman followed the failed double play with a four-pitch walk to end his outing. His line: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 K on 88 pitches.

The Yankees were reeling and needed a good start, and Stroman didn't make it through the five innings. Rodón gave up eight runs in the first two innings Thursday and even he managed to get through the fifth. Stroman has struck out more batters than he’s walked once in his last six starts. He already has more BB > K starts (five) than any Yankee since Sonny Gray had six in 2018. Maybe someone should yell at Stroman for throwing three pitches in the other batter’s box every at-bat?

Stroman has never been a strikeout pitcher. He’s a ground ball guy, but walking more hitters than you strike out is a bad thing no matter what kinda pitcher you are, plus Stroman is running a career low 50.0 GB%. He no longer gets ground balls at an elite rate. Also, Stroman’s bleeding velocity:

Stroman has a 3.29 ERA with poor under-the-hood numbers (4.86 FIP, 4.34 xERA, 4.66 DRA). He’s a unique pitcher with a history of outperforming his underlying numbers, so hopefully that continues. But if he continues losing velocity, his margin of error will shrink, making it less likely he does continue to avoid big damage despite more walks than strikeouts and a good but not elite ground ball rate. It’s a bit worrisome.

It was fitting J.A. Happ was Friday’s Name that Yankee because the Yankees might have to put Stroman on the Happ plan next season and keep moving his starts around to prevent him from reaching 140 innings and triggering his vesting option. Regardless, don’t call teammates out on the field man. Not when you can’t get through five innings against one of the lowest scoring offenses in the game.

“You never want to get in a situation where you’re voicing frustration in and around a play or of a teammate,” Aaron Boone told Joyce. “But 162, we’re family, it happens. One of the reasons you’re able to handle those things and deal with them well is because of the strength of that room and the closeness of these guys. I don’t think anyone really took much offense to it.”

Volpe’s power outage

Anthony Volpe is up to 41 games without a home run, and in those 41 games he’s drawn seven walks. It’s a .249/.280/.348 (79 wRC+) line in those 41 games and a .261/.315/.389 (102 wRC+) line for the season. Has Volpe been better than last year? Yes. Is he anything more than an average-ish hitter? No, not yet. He has to start hitting for power or drawing walks (preferably both), otherwise he’s a singles merchant without the top of the line contact skills of, say, Luis Arraez or peak Jeff McNeil.

The Yankees should move Volpe down in the lineup. Not all the way down to 7-8-9, but toward the middle of the lineup. I had this thought last week and a few others have sent in mailbag questions with a similar idea, so I’m not alone (the RAB community can go crazy together). Could do something like this:

1. Juan Soto
2. Aaron Judge
3. Anthony Volpe
4-9. Everyone else

Soto and Judge are the two best hitters in the league by wRC+ and the offense is heavily reliant on them. Moving them up to 1-2 gets them the most at-bats. The Yankees did this with Judge in 2022, remember? The offense was struggling badly in the second half and he hit leadoff 34 times, including in 23 of the final 24 games. Give your best hitters the most at-bats.

Volpe does not have the power of a traditional No. 3 hitter, but neither does anyone in the lineup other than Soto and Judge most days, and he’ll at least pepper singles. Judge has a .491 OBP in his last 13 games and he’s scored only four runs that weren’t on his own homer. Four! He gets on and no one drives him in. Volpe’s splits say you want him hitting with men on base …

• Bases empty: .246/.290/.338 (81 wRC+) with 25.0 K% and 5.1 BB%

• Runners on: .291/.364/.496 (144 wRC+) with 17.2 K% and 9.7 BB%

… plus he’s less likely to GIDP than everyone else who’s hit behind Judge and Soto because he’s speedy. Also, it would free Volpe up to run more. He’s attempted only five steals in his last 29 games, in part because you don’t want him getting thrown out ahead of Soto and Judge. First base is scoring position with those two at the plate. Steals are a thing Volpe provides, but the Yankees can’t take full advantage because they don’t want to risk losing baserunners with Soto and Judge coming up.

It’s also fair to wonder if leaving Volpe in the leadoff spot to struggle as much as he has lately can hurt his development. I’m sure it’s hurting his confidence, but Volpe seems like a tough kid with the right stuff between the ears. He’ll handle the confidence part. It’s mostly about making sure he stays within his game and does not get away from what works for him because he feels he needs to do something else at leadoff, you know? 

There are no indications the Yankees are considering a change at leadoff, but I don’t think it should be off the table. Volpe hit .220/.238/.309 (53 wRC+) in June, he’s got this long home run drought going, and he doesn’t walk much. The larger issue is the continued lack of power and walks, not the lineup spot. It seems like Volpe is still trying to figure out what kinda hitter he is. Marrying this year’s contact rate with last year’s power would be ideal. Is it doable? I’m not sure even the Yankees know the answer to that. 

Soto’s surprising return

When’s the last time a late lineup change was good news? Soto was not in Sunday’s original lineup, then he was added about five minutes before first pitch. Alrighty. Initial x-rays on Soto’s right hand came back negative Saturday and he said he might go for more tests Monday, but apparently he felt good enough to get in the lineup Sunday. He went 1-for-3 with two walks and his swings looked fine to me.

“We went through a lot of exercises and treatments before the game,” Soto told Bryan Hoch. “As I started hitting in the cage, it started getting better and better.”

Soto slammed his hand down hard on a play at the plate Friday (video) but did stay in the game, and even hit a home run a few innings later (video). It swelled up on him overnight and he had trouble gripping a bat Saturday, and I guess it subsided Sunday. With the off-day Monday, I figured Soto would sit Sunday and the Yankees would give him three consecutive days off to let the hand heal up, but nope.

The lineup was remarkably consistent earlier this season. Not so much lately because of the injuries, but day after day it was the same lineup the first few weeks, and it was unusual for the Yankees. In theory, it showed a heightened sense of urgency. Playing Soto on Sunday feels the same. The Yankees would never let someone play banged up with an off-day coming, especially not someone as important as Soto.

We’ll find out later today whether Soto went for more tests Monday. We just went through this with the forearm inflammation: Soto is irreplaceable and losing him for any length of time would be devastating. It was very encouraging that he was able to play (and look like himself) Sunday. It was also something of a shock to see a not 100% Yankee work his way into the lineup. That’s been a rarity over the years.

“I’ve got to talk to the doctor when we get back to New York, and we’re going to see what we’re going to do,” Soto told Hoch. “There’s still a little swelling in there, but I think it was in a spot that I could help my team.”

Miscellany

I praised Rodón for his Kansas City start, and he’s stunk since. I called for Torres to lose playing time last post, then he rattled off three straight multi-hit games. Feel free to send me suggestions for the next player I should jinx/reverse jinx. Torres is 6-for-13 (.462) with a double and a homer in three games since his two-game benching. Is he back? Like back back? I hope so, though it’s too early to say. Getting the good version of Gleyber back (for real this time) would be such a huge lift. It would improve the lineup and also scratch one thing off the trade deadline shopping list … At long last, DJ LeMahieu has an extra-base hit. He doubled in the eighth inning Friday (video) and someone in the dugout said save the ball:

LeMahieu got his first XBH hit in his 89th plate appearance. It’s the deepest into a season a Yankee has gone without an XBH since Chase Headley in 2016 (106 PA). LeMahieu doubled again Sunday afternoon and his ground ball rate is down to, uh, 58.0%.  … Ben Rice gives off Nick Johnson vibes. He has the same kinda presence in the batter’s box and he knows the strike zone well. His batting stance is even similar to Nicky J.’s too. All anyone talks about with Johnson is the injuries, but the guy was a career .268/.399/.441 (126 wRC+) hitter who slashed .281/.414/.459 (134 wRC+) during his peak from 2003-09. That dude could hit. The Johnson thing is meant as a compliment. Also, Rice caught the ninth inning of Friday’s blowout win. He’s needed at first base right now, but that’s a sign the Yankees aren’t completely giving up on him behind the plate. Rice is going deep this week. I can feel the first homer coming … Austin Wells caught Cole for the first time outside Spring Training on Sunday. Jose Trevino has been Cole’s personal catcher most of the last two years, then it was Ben Rortvedt after Trevino got hurt last year. The Yankees will see a lot of righties the next week and a half. I’d like them to put Wells at DH when he’s not catching and get him in there every day … And finally, there was a minor scare Sunday when the just called up Josh Maciejewski warmed up in the second inning, after Cole’s 14-pitch first. Cole stayed in and pitched well for five innings. He isn’t himself yet but losing Cole would have been so demoralizing. Turns out Maciejewski didn’t get to Toronto until just before the game and he was loosening up in the bullpen after not being able to do his usual pregame stuff. Phew. Maciejewski threw a scoreless ninth inning in the win. Took him 15 pitches, unlike his four-pitch debut in April (video).

Injury updates and roster moves

Chase Hampton is back. My No. 5 prospect made his season debut with the rookie Florida Complex League Yankees on Monday. His line: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K. We don’t have pitch data in the FCL, so figure something like 25-30 pitches. Hampton missed the start of the season with a UCL sprain. There haven’t been many updates on him the last few weeks, which is not unusual for a non-40-man roster player, but obviously it’s good news he’s back on the mound … Clarke Schmidt (lat) started a throwing program last Monday. He’s only playing catch right now, but that’s where these things start. Last Monday was the start of Week 4 of Schmidt’s 4-6 shutdown period, so he’s slightly ahead of schedule. It’ll be another few weeks though … Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) has started running on a treadmill. “Not a lot, but he's moving around now,” Boone told Hoch. Has Stanton really only been out 10 days? Feels like it’s been a month … Scott Effross (elbow, back) made two more rehab appearances since the last post: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K on Thursday and 1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR on Sunday. He’s made four rehab appearances so far. Not sure how many more Effross will make, but I don’t think it’ll be one or two. Might be more like five or six, or even more than that … JT Brubaker (elbow) made his third rehab start Sunday: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K on 47 pitches (video). He moved up to Double-A Somerset. Boone said the Yankees are stretching Brubaker out to start, though they could use him as a reliever once he completes his rehab … Nick Burdi (hip) threw live BP on Saturday. He can’t come off the 60-day injured list until Wednesday, July 24th, so he has close to four weeks to rehab and do what he needs to do … And finally, the Yankees DFAed Phil Bickford and brought up Maciejewski on Sunday. Bickford got into four games during his nine days on the active roster. Matt Blake talked about his unique fastball and arm slot, and it felt like the Yankees were giving him a look to see what he could do. It didn’t work out, so he’s gone. Maciejewski, meanwhile, caught a break. He was scheduled to start in Triple-A on Saturday, but they got rained out. That made him available Sunday and he got called up as a fresh arm able to give length. If he starts Saturday as scheduled, he’s still in the minors. The rain out got him a few days of big league pay and service time. If the Yankees send Maciejewski down later today, Cody Morris is the only 40-man roster guy eligible to be called up. Yoendrys Gómez, Ron Marinaccio, and Anthony Misiewicz are all still in their 15-day waiting period after being sent down within the last week or so.

Up next

A six-game homestand against the Reds of Cincinnati and Red Sox of Boston. It’s the final homestand before the All-Star break. Here are the pitching matchups for the Reds series:

• Tuesday vs. Reds: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft (7pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday vs. Reds: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Andrew Abbott (7pm ET on Amazon)

• Thursday vs. Reds: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Frankie Montas (1pm ET on YES)

The Yankees could have used Monday’s off-day to push Gil back and give him extra rest, but they didn’t. Unless the Yankees call up a spot starter this week (unlikely), Gil will have to make two starts this week (Tuesday with an extra day of rest and Sunday on normal rest) rather than just one, giving him a nice little in-season breather. Alas.

The Reds are one of those teams in the NL’s mushy middle. They started 15-12, went 5-18 in their next 23 games, then went 14-5 in the 19 games after that. Now they’re 4-10 in their last 14 games. And here I thought the Yankees going from great to bad was aggravating. Imagine going from good to bad to great to bad like the Reds have these last three months? An exhausting team they must be for the fan base.

Elly De La Cruz is one of my favorite non-Yankees – that dude is electrifying – and he stole his 40th base of the season the other day. I assume Trevino will be behind the plate against the lefty Abbott. In case you’re wondering, the record for stolen bases in a game is six. It’s been done a few times, most recently by Carl Crawford in 2009. Gotta keep Elly off base, otherwise he’ll steal the Yankees blind this week.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Jazz Chisholm Jr. The trade deadline is exactly four weeks away and, among other things, the Yankees must upgrade their infield. They are 25th in WAR at first base, 24th in WAR at second base, and 23rd in WAR at third base. Trading for three new infielders is (probably) unrealistic, but the Yankees need at least one infield upgrade. It’s a must.

There are a lot of middling .500-ish teams that will spend the next four weeks deciding whether to buy or sell. The Marlins are not one of them. They’re awful (30-54 with a -126 run differential) and they’re already selling. Luis Arraez was traded two months ago. The Marlins have a few rentals to move, including Tanner Scott, though the Arraez trade tells us they’re open to trading players with control beyond 2024.

Chisholm, 26, is Miami’s best position player and it’s not all that close either. That roster is just … sheesh. Chisholm is slashing .259/.324/.423 (109 wRC+) with 10 home runs this season and his center field defense is either acceptable (+0 OAA) or disastrous (-7 DRS) depending where you look. We’ll get into his game a little more in-depth in a bit. That’s the quick overview.

I think we can safely assume that yes, Chisholm is available. Does he make sense for the Yankees? Will the cost be prohibitive? Let’s break it all down.

Background

Chisholm is one of only nine MLB players from the Bahamas and the best by WAR. He originally signed with the Diamondbacks as a $200,000 international free agent in July 2015 and Arizona traded him to the Marlins for Zac Gallen straight up at the 2019 deadline. It was the ultra rare prospect for prospect trade (Gallen had already made his MLB debut, though he was still prospect-eligible at the time of the trade).

From 2019-21, Chisholm was a consensus top 60-ish prospect in the game. He debuted in 2020 and was a deserving All-Star in 2022 (136 wRC+ and +2.2 WAR in the first half), not just Miami’s token representative. For what it’s worth, Chisholm has a colorful personality and is easy to like when he’s playing well, but he’s rubbed some teammates the wrong way, and every so often he’ll pull a Josh Donaldson and settle for a single after thinking he hit a home run and admiring it. That drives everyone nuts.

Offense

We’re still waiting for the 2022 All-Star version of Chisholm to return, though he has been an average or better hitter these last two years. Here are the surface stats:

There is swing-and-miss in Chisholm’s game, no doubt, but he has begun to rein it in this year, and there is some promising stuff going on under the hood. He’s in the 81st percentile in SEAGER after sitting in the 50th to 60th percentile the last few years, so his swing decisions have taken a step forward, and his hard-hit ability is better than average. Swing at the right pitches + hit the ball hard = profit.

Why then has Chisholm’s SLG gone from .535 to .457 to .423 since 2022, and his HR/FB rate from 23.3% to 23.5% to 13.7%? Batted ball direction, mostly. From 2022-23, Chisholm pulled 9.5% of his fly balls, or nearly one out of 10. This year he’s down to 7.2% pulled fly balls. He went from the 60th percentile range for pulled fly balls down to 36th percentile. Here are the numbers:

Chisholm is swinging more in general, both at pitches in and out of the zone, though his in-zone contact rate has improved significantly. That has boosted his SEAGER. That’s good. But more grounders and a lower pull rate has muted his power – Chisholm’s barrel rate is still comfortably better than the 7.8% MLB average average, but well below where it was two years ago – and we are talking about a left-handed hitter. You want Chisholm to pull the ball in the air in Yankee Stadium.

Know who Chisholm’s evolution reminds me of? Anthony Volpe. Volpe is wearing out the opposite field this year and his ground ball rate has shot up, and he’s making more contact. Chisholm is making more contact this season and also generating more grounders and more balls to the opposite field. Chisholm’s AVG hasn’t crept up like Volpe’s, though he has similarly seen his power slip.

In addition to all that, this season is the first time Chisholm has held his own against lefties. From 2021-23, he hit .266/.326/.501 (122 wRC+) against righties and .203/.253/.333 (57 wRC+) against lefties. This year it’s .251/.318/.437 (108 wRC+) against righties and .274/.336/.396 (110 wRC+) against lefties. Is 116 plate appearances against lefties a sign of real improvement, or small sample size weirdness? For what it’s worth, Chisholm worked specifically to get better against lefties over the winter. From Christina De Nicola:

During Spring Training, Chisholm often spoke about working over the offseason with Dominique Collie Jr., whom he calls his “left-handed little brother.” A member of the D-backs’ system from 2017-18 like Chisholm, Collie threw him cutters and sinkers to better his approach in lefty-lefty matchups.

…

“I think he had something to prove, too,” (Marlins manager Skip) Schumaker said. “He kept saying that he is capable of playing every day, didn't want to be a platoon guy, didn't want to hit ninth with lefties. I sort of protected him early on in the year getting sixth and seventh in the order because I really liked his defense and baserunning, all that. It wasn't just the offense. But he worked his butt off to try to hit better against lefties and to not get pinch-hit for or to not start against them.”

When Chisholm gets into a pitch, he can really crush it. He’s shown good hard-hit ability throughout his career. He’s getting less out of that hard-hit ability than in the past because he’s hitting so many more ground balls and pulling fewer fly balls, and that’s happening despite making more contact within the zone. The core skills are good – hard-hit ability, more contact, etc. – but Chisholm is still searching for a way to make them all work together, rather than going from one extreme to the next.

Chisholm is only 26 (he'll play the entire season at 26) and no player is a finished product at that age, but he is still potential more than production to some extent. The tools are evident, and he’s put it together for stretches of time. There is another level in here, and that’s the idea behind trading for him. Paying for this version of Chisholm and unlocking a better one, one who can rediscover his 2022-23 power without sacrificing his 2024 contact gains.

Defense

Chisholm came up through the minors as a shortstop, though the reports on his defense were not good, so he played mostly second base once he reached the big leagues. In 329.2 innings from 2020-21, he was a -4 DRS and -9 OAA defender at short, which is really, really bad. Chisholm has not played short since Game 162 in 2021 and he won’t ever play it again in anything other than an emergency.

At second base though, Chisholm was really good! He was a +7 DRS and +8 OAA defender in over 1,300 innings at second from 2020-22. The Marlins moved Chisholm to center last year not because his defense at second was bad, but because they wanted to upgrade their offense, so they traded for Arraez and put him at second. Chisholm embraced the position switch, though his defense has been shaky in center.

The Yankees don’t need another outfielder right now. The idea behind trading for Chisholm is moving him back to second base, where he played the best defense of his career. How easy would it be to transition back to second in-season? It’s a familiar position, but a position Chisholm hasn’t played since 2022, and it’s not an easy position either. Things happen a million miles an hour on the infield.

Keep in mind Chisholm would come in with zero chemistry with his double play partner – he and Volpe wouldn’t have a Spring Training to get comfortable with each other – plus he would have to make the move back to second on top of everything else that comes with being traded to the Yankees. New team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, crazy media and fan base, etc. It’s a lot. It really is.

It’s possible the Yankees or some other team trades for Chisholm, puts him at second, and it’s like riding a bike. It’s seamless. It’s also possible, maybe even likely, there are hiccups along the way, and you don’t get the good defensive second baseman version of Chisholm until 2025, after he has an offseason and Spring Training to properly prepare. It’s a familiar position, sure, but in-season position changes are always risky.

Baserunning

Chisholm would definitely help the Yankees with their lack-of-speed issues. He’s a burner with a very good 28.5 ft/s sprint speed and the second fastest average home-to-first time in the game, behind Byron Buxton and just ahead of Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr. Chisholm is very fast, though he’s not the most efficient base-stealer, even with the new rules. His numbers on the bases the last few years:

• 2021: 23-for-31 (75%) stealing bases and 71% extra-base taken rate

• 2022: 12-for-17 (71%) stealing bases and 75% extra-base taken rate

• 2023: 22-for-25 (88%) stealing bases and 60% extra-base taken rate

• 2024: 14-for-7 (67%) stealing bases and 55% extra-base taken rate

These days the MLB averages are a 78% stolen base success rate and a 42% extra-base taken rate. Chisholm had a great year stealing bases in 2023 – he stole those 22 bases in only 97 games – but he’s taken a step back this year, and has mostly been a high volume/average efficiency bag-swiper. Also, his extra-base taken rate is trending down, but is still above-average.

Volpe is the only stolen base threat on the Yankees. They have several players who take the extra-base at a better than average rate (Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells), but, for the most part, the Yankees are a station-to-station team. Chisholm, who is top 11 in baserunning value since 2011, won’t fix that himself (no single player will), but he would give the Yankees more of a speed element.

Injury history

A smaller player at 5-foot-11 and 184 lbs., Chisholm is no stranger to the injured list, and later this month he’ll reach 400 plate appearances for only the second time in his career. He also did it in 2021, the only time he’s had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Here’s the injury history:

• 2017: Minor league season ended in mid May by torn right meniscus.

• 2021: Missed 18 days with left hamstring strain.

• 2022: Season ended in late June by a stress fracture in his back. Also had another torn right meniscus and had surgery in September.

• 2023: Missed 43 games with turf toe, then 28 games with a left oblique strain. He had surgery on the toe after the season.

Similar to Aaron Judge, Chisholm injured his toe last year running into the outfield wall (video), and he did eventually have surgery. The fact he’s running as well as he has this year (based on sprint speed and home-to-first time) indicates the toe is all good. Chisholm has started 79 of Miami’s 84 games in center field this season (plus one at DH). This year, he’s healthy. The last few years, not so much.

Contract status

Chisholm will make $2.625M this season, his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’ll be under team control another two years beyond this one. Figure $5M and $9M salaries in 2025 and 2026, give or take. Trade for Chisholm on deadline day and you’re absorbing less than $1M in salary the rest of the season ($867,000 or so). Even with the Yankees' 110% luxury tax rate, we’re talking an all-in financial hit under $2M. The money should be a complete non-issue. (Chisholm has two minor league options remaining, but if you have to use one of those, you have bigger problems than roster flexibility.)

What would it take?

Chisholm has 2.5 years of team control remaining (i.e. three postseason runs) and not many players of his caliber have been traded at that point in their careers the last few seasons. The big one is Juan Soto, and that doesn’t apply here. The Soto trade (Nationals to Padres) doesn’t tell us much about Chisholm’s value. Here are two trades involving three postseason runs of an above-average position player:

• Luis Arraez (Twins to Marlins): Traded for two years of an above-average starter (RHP Pablo López), a team top 10 prospect (SS Jose Salas), and a team non-top 30 prospect (OF Byron Chourio).

• Sean Murphy (Athletics to Braves): Traded for five years of a young big leaguer (C William Contreras), a team top five prospect (LHP Kyle Muller), two team top 20 prospects (RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Royber Salinas), a team non-top 30 prospect (RHP Justin Yeager), and a salary offset (C Manny Piña).

Murphy was a big three-team trade, and that’s what the Braves gave up to get him (not necessarily what the A’s received in return for him). The Arraez and Murphy trades tell us the Marlins would not be crazy to ask for a young big leaguer (Luis Gil?) plus more for Chisholm, but we don’t have much to go on here, so I wouldn’t take this as definitive. I’m just trying to get us in the ballpark.

The Marlins hired POBO Peter Bendix away from the Rays over the winter and the Arraez trade tells us two things. One, the Marlins are willing to eat money to improve the return, though that shouldn’t matter with a Chisholm trade. He’s pretty cheap. And two, Bendix is employing the same quantity over quality approach the Rays take. They’d rather get 3-4 good prospects than 1-2 great prospects, in part to build organizational depth.

In my completely amateur opinion, I think you’re looking at two top 5-10 team prospects plus secondary stuff to fill out a trade package for Chisholm. Four players isn’t unreasonable. The Twins got three players for Arraez and the Braves gave up five for Murphy (plus a sixth to offset money). If Bendix goes quantity over quality again, yeah, sure. Four prospects it is.

(There is of course the potential for a larger Yankees-Marlins trade, one that includes Chisholm and Tanner Scott coming to New York. That changes the trade package calculus.)

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Torres is 6-for-13 (.462) with a double and a homer since his two-game benching, so perhaps he’s coming around and the Yankees don’t need a second baseman. The Yankees will need a second baseman in 2025 and beyond though, and Chisholm is under control another through 2026. We’re not talking about a rental who goes away after the season and leaves the Yankees again searching for a second baseman.

Is there a scenario in which the Yankees trade for Chisholm at the deadline, he plays outfield the rest of this season (Alex Verdugo is the only candidate to lose playing time), then returns to second base next season (with an offseason and Spring Training to prepare)? Sure, I could see it, though these complicated “three things need to happen for it to make sense” scenarios rarely happen. Path of least resistance and all that.

I think Chisholm the player fits. He brings present offensive production with the potential for more, he’d add speed, and he played second base well earlier in his career. Fitting him into the 2024 roster would take some creativity because a) Gleyber is still here (spin him off elsewhere?), and b) Chisholm would have to transition back to second in-season. And if you keep him in the outfield the rest of the year, then you have to do something with Verdugo (and put Aaron Judge in an unfamiliar left field full-time).

The skill set fits and the positional stuff is an obstacle more than a dealbreaker, I think. Chisholm is available right now and he might not be in the offseason (because he could be playing for another team by then). And really, Torres or Verdugo can be moved. They’re rentals. It’s not like they’re locked into long-term contracts. You might not get a ton back, but those guys will appeal to other teams around the league.

Unless the price is outrageous, I think the Yankees should do it and put Chisholm in the outfield the rest of the year, then move him to second in 2025. And that, of course, does nothing to help the 2024 infield, which is the problem we set out to solve. Chisholm kinda feels like one of those “good idea, but not a perfect fit, so the Yankees will probably look elsewhere” scenarios.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Illinois HS RHP Ryan Sloan. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything. 

Sloan, 18, has been on the radar for years and he’s consistently stood out against other top draft prospects in showcases. He’s a big kid (6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.) and a Wake Forest recruit, which is notable because Wake Forest has become a top of the line pitcher development program. Similar to Vanderbilt, they recruit the best of the best. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have Sloan:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 26

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 30

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 31

• MLB Pipeline: No. 19

Last week the very plugged-in Jim Callis said the Yankees “would prefer a pitcher” in the first round, which is a change of pace for them. They last used a first round pick on a pitcher in 2017 (Clarke Schmidt). Given the draft class, it’s a good year to zig after zagging for so long. Anyway, here’s video and here is the important stuff from MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Sloan shows the ability to manipulate a 93-96 mph fastball that tops out at 99, as he can ride and run it at the top of the zone, cut it in on left-handers or sink it for ground balls. He has a more advanced changeup than most prepsters, throwing hitters off balance with a mid-80s cambio that fades and sinks. His low-80s slider is nearly as good, featuring two-plane depth and some horizontal action as well … Sloan has a strong lower half and is built to eat innings … (He) uses his size to create extension and a flat approach angle to add deception. He repeats his delivery well and throws his entire arsenal for quality strikes.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Sloan’s slider has “spin rates in the 2,500-2,600 rpm range,” which is a tick better than the MLB average (2,470 rpm). Keith Law (subs. req’d) adds Sloan is “better to his arm side than his glove side,” so his command needs work. Keep in mind he’s a cold weather state kid. Sloan hasn’t had much high level instruction and is just starting to scratch the surface of his ability.

I’ve said this a few times through the draft write-ups but this is a good year to target pitching in the first round rather than defaulting to a bat. The best high school hitters figure to come off the board before No. 26 and it’s a down year for second tier college bats. Teams are so scared of high school pitchers because of the injury risk that they’ve almost become a market inefficiency. There are some really good ones out there.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. In a recent deadline rumblings post (subs. req’d), The Athletic folks noted the Yankees have had a “noticeable scouting presence” around the Cubs. The Cubs are in a weird place. They’re 39-46 and in the NL Central cellar, but only five games out of a Wild Card spot, which isn’t insurmountable. Also, if they do sell, they don’t have many desirable veteran rentals. Would the Yankees trade for Cody Bellinger to play first base? Bellinger’s having a good but not great year – his .267/.327/.416 (109 wRC+) line is more or less what was expected given his contact quality last season – and it’s no guarantee he’ll pass on his $27.5M player option after the season (he also has a $25M player option for 2026). I have a hard time believing the Yankees will absorb that much potential salary with Juan Soto’s free agency looming and Hal Steinbrenner already bellyaching about next year’s payroll. Maybe the Yankees were watching Chicago’s relievers? They have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, so I dunno … And finally, the Futures Game rosters will (finally) be announced at 10am ET Tuesday. I think Spencer Jones is going. The 35.5 K% rate is an eyesore, but he had a great June (.296/.355/.546 and 148 wRC+) and is the best healthy prospect in the system. Agustin Ramirez is still trying to find his way in Triple-A (4-for-34), but he was great in Double-A, and could get the nod as well. We'll find out in a few hours.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)