June 18th, 2024: Red Sox Series, Cole, Rizzo, Domínguez, All-Star Game, Pereira

UPDATE: The Yankees are indeed calling up Ben Rice to replace Anthony Rizzo, according to Joel Sherman. Rice, my No. 11 prospect, is hitting .275/.393/.532 (155 wRC+) with 15 homers and good strikeout (20.9%) and walk (14.9%) rates between Double-A and Triple-A this year. I don't think they called him up to sit. Expect Rice to play a lot, at least against righties, though don't be surprised if the Yankees replace him for defense in the late innings. The Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot after putting Jon Berti on the 60-day injured list, so no other move is required there. They will need to open a 40-man spot for Gerrit Cole on Wednesday, but that won't be difficult.

ORIGINAL POST: Friday night the Yankees became the first team to 50 wins – no other team ended the day with more than 47 wins – and they also won their 10,000th game since the name change from the Highlanders to the Yankees in 1913. Even including the Highlanders years (1903-12), the Yankees do not have the most wins all-time. They’re eighth all-time behind seven franchises (Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Reds) that came into existence no later than 1884. The Yankees do have the highest winning percentage all-time though: .570. That’s a 92-win pace for over a century. Ridiculous. Anyway, here’s a quick thing I wrote at CBS about Aaron Judge’s hot streak and here is today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees being 9-10 with a minus-6 run differential against the AL East isn’t great. It doesn’t mean they can’t beat good teams or that they’re doomed in the postseason or anything like that. It just means they’re making life hard on themselves. The most straightforward way to win the division is beating the other teams in the division, and the Yankees aren’t doing it. Bad weekend in Boston. Hopefully things go better against the Orioles this week. A few thoughts on the last few days.

Boston steal party

That was embarrassing Sunday. I don’t think it’s going overboard to call it that. The Red Sox have been around since the dawn of time and they stole a franchise record nine bases, and the Yankees allowed a franchise record tying nine steals. The only other time they did it was in 1915, when there were 48 states in the union. The Red Sox stole at will and rubbed the Yankees’ nose in it.

“It’s on all of us,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce. “It’s a group effort. It takes everything to control running games. They have a very fast team and their running game beat us tonight. We gotta do a better job overall of controlling those things, slowing them down, and we didn’t do it well enough tonight.”

Here are the nine steals. It’s not just that the Red Sox stole nine bases. It’s that the Yankees weren’t even competitive on eight of the nine. The last stolen base, when David Hamilton was good and tuckered out after going 2-for-4 with a walk and three steals earlier in the game, was the only one that was a bang-bang play. Jose Trevino didn’t even make a throw on five of the nine steals!

Trevino said he needs to be better. Marcus Stroman said he needs to be better. Everyone said the right things, but words don’t mean much. Trevino has the weakest arm among catchers and would it kill Stroman to check a runner? Seriously, watch the video. How many times did he give the runner a cursory glance? The Red Sox ran wild on the bullpen too. Not just Stroman.

And the thing is, even after Sunday’s game, the Yankees still have the eighth highest caught stealing rate in baseball (25%), and Trevino is at 26% personally. The MLB average is 21%. Trevino’s arm strength is a liability, clearly, but Sunday was the first time it got exposed. The Yankees are fortunate not every team can run like the Red Sox. (Then again, when you give up steals to Bobby Dalbec and Dominic Smith, does it matter who’s running?)

Carlos Rodón had a bad game Saturday. He left way too many pitches in the middle of the plate, especially in the first few innings. That wasn’t a guy who was making his pitches and getting hit anyway. Bad starts happen. That one happened at an unfortunate time. Stroman is beginning to feel like a house of cards though. The 3.08 ERA is obviously excellent. The rest is worrisome:

• Career low tying 17.1 K% (also 17.1% in 2018)

• Career high 10.6 BB% (previous high: 9.0% in 2023)

• Career low 50.2 GB% (previous low: 50.8% in 2021)

• Career low 7.9 SwStr% (previous low: 8.6% in 2015)

• Career high 6.7% barrel rate (previous high: 6.6% in 2022)

• Career low 90.0 mph sinker velocity (previous low: 91.4 mph in 2023)

Every at-bat is a battle. Stroman’s thing for so long was quick grounders and now he never seems to get easy outs – his .275 OBP allowed in two-strike counts is 11th highest among the 73 pitchers who’ve faced at least 300 batters – and eventually his .255 BABIP will climb (career .296 BABIP). Stroman’s 3.08 ERA comes with a 4.77 FIP, a 4.52 xERA, and a 4.88 DRA. Everything except ERA is telling us to be worried. 

Third base is a complete disaster. DJ LeMahieu is up to 57 plate appearances without an extra-base hit. It’s the deepest a Yankee has gone without an extra-base hit to start a season since Chase Headley had 102 (!) extra-base-hitless plate appearances to begin 2016. Yankees third baseman have three extra-base hits in the last 55 games. Three! The fewest extra-base hits by position entering play Monday:

1. Cardinals CF: 8
2. White Sox 2B: 9
3. Marlins C: 9
4. Marlins SS: 9
5. Athletics SS: 9
6. Yankees 3B: 10

I understand he’s still working his way back from an injury, but LeMahieu has a 62.9% ground ball rate, and his 36th birthday is coming up. What even is the reward here? A .243/.327/.390 (101 wRC+) line like last season? Oswaldo Cabrera is not an everyday player, Jon Berti is weeks away from returning, and there’s no one who can play third base on an everyday basis for even a fringe contender in the minors.

Yankees infielders – first, second, short, and third combined – are hitting .239/.301/.352 (90 wRC+). They are 24th among the 30 teams in wRC+ and five of the six teams below them are the Athletics, Marlins, Tigers, Rockies, and White Sox. Not the company you want to keep (the Red Sox are the other team). The outfielders are hitting .284/.388/.553 (166 wRC+), well ahead of the second place Padres and their 132 wRC+, but the infield stinks man.

Anthony Volpe hasn’t hit a home run in over a month (since May 16th) and it’s been 75 plate appearances (since May 30th) since his last walk. He’s gotta start hitting homers or drawing walks (preferably both). It’s really hard to be an above-average hitter while doing neither. Gleyber Torres got hot for about 15 minutes, and has already cooled off. His at-bat with the bases loaded and no outs in the seventh inning Sunday was appalling. All three at-bats with the bases loaded were bad. The Yankees had a 3-0 count with the bases loaded and no outs, and did not score. Nice swing decisions, guys:

But even if the Yankees had tied it or taken the lead, what difference would it have made? They used all their top setup guys and they combined to allow five runs on seven hits and two walks in three innings. They faced 18 batters and struck out two. Relievers other than Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver have a 4.47 ERA (4.31 FIP) with an 11.4% walk rate since May 1st. The middle of the bullpen is another weakness.

This turned into more of a rant than I intended. The Yankees are really good! They are. But holy moly, the things they do well they do really well, and the things they do poorly they do really poorly. The Yankees have to address their corner infield* and middle relief situation at the trade deadline, and the good news is getting even an average player at those spots will represent a big upgrade. What a miserable game Sunday.

* The Athletics just DFAed J.D. Davis. He's hitting .236/.304/.366 (98 wRC+), but a year ago he hit .248/.325/.413 (104 wRC+) and was a +2.2 fWAR player, and Yankees third basemen are hitting .238/.291/.323 (79 wRC+). He doesn't have to be a permanent solution. Just a stopgap until someone better comes along. They'll have to trade for Davis. I imagine several other teams (Blue Jays? Diamondbacks? Dodgers?) will have interest.

Injury updates

Gerrit Cole will start Wednesday’s game, Aaron Boone confirmed Monday. His third rehab start went well Friday: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (video). He was scheduled to throw 70-ish pitches and he threw exactly 70 pitches. Because he was in Triple-A, we have Statcast data, and Cole's velocity was down 2-3 mph almost across the board (Statcast missed two pitches):

If this were Spring Training, Cole would be in early-to-mid March, so the missing velocity isn’t too much of a concern. He’s still building arm strength. Cole touched 98 mph and was pleased with how he felt – “There was really good work today … It’s a really good step in the right direction,” he told Alyssa Gomez – and that’s all I need to hear. If Cole says he feels good, and the only thing that’s left is building stamina, there’s no sense in wasting those bullets in Scranton. I assume he’ll be on an 80-ish pitch limit in that first game back. Otherwise, glad to have Cole back. I’ve missed him … Anthony Rizzo can’t catch a break. He broke a bone in his arm in that collision at first base Sunday (video) and will miss 4-6 weeks, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). He doesn’t need surgery. We’ll find out what the Yankees plan to do at first base later today, but I hope they call up Ben Rice and give themselves a chance at offense at the first base position. I am bracing myself for Cabrera and LeMahieu on the corners. Gotta get a first baseman at the trade deadline. It is a must … Jasson Domínguez was placed on Triple-A Scranton’s 7-day injured list Sunday. He felt something in his left side during a check swing Saturday, and was sent for tests. We should get an update on him later today. On one hand, it’s good it’s not something with his elbow. On the other hand, obliques or intercostals or whatever can keep a player out of action for a good long while. Hopefully this is minor. I was really itching for the Yankees to push the “call up Domínguez and sit Alex Verdugo against lefties and Giancarlo Stanton against righties” button. That’ll have to wait now. With Everson Pereira done for the season (more on him in a bit), the outfield depth chart suddenly got very thin. (Greg Allen is on Scranton's injured list as well.)

Up next

An important series with the Orioles. I know it’s only June, but there’s no reason to think Baltimore will fade in the AL East race. Beating them head-to-head is the best and maybe only way to create separation in the standings. The new schedule means you get fewer shots at division rivals, so the games you do have take on added importance. The Dodgers series felt big. This O’s series is big. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Tuesday vs. Orioles: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Albert Suárez (7pm ET on YES, TBS)

• Wednesday vs. Orioles: RHP Gerrit Cole  vs. LHP Cade Povich (7pm ET on Amazon, MLBN)

• Thursday vs. Orioles: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Cole Irvin (4pm ET on YES, MLBN)

I assume Cody Poteet will go down to clear a roster spot for Cole, not that he deserves to be sent down. The peripherals are just okay (4.29 FIP and 4.93 xERA), but getting a 2.14 ERA in four starts from what amounts to your No. 7 starter is a great outcome. Well done, Cody. I hope the Yankees blow the Orioles out Tuesday and Poteet can mop up the last 3-4 innings before being sent down.

As for the O’s, they’ve been using a six-man rotation and the Yankees won’t see their top three starters – Kyle Bradish, Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez – this week. There’s more to baseball than starting pitchers, but geez, what a break. Please take advantage. Also, Bradish’s elbow is barking again. I know it works sometimes, but it feels like the “rehab and try to avoid Tommy John surgery” gambit never works.

The Orioles (5.13) and Yankees (5.05) rank 1-2 in runs per game. The single biggest difference between the two offenses is lineup depth. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the two best hitters between the two teams, but after that, it’s all Orioles. Look how many O’s are between the second and third best Yankees (among qualified hitters):

1. Aaron Judge: 207 wRC+ (lol)
2. Juan Soto: 190 wRC+
3. Gunnar Henderson: 170 wRC+
4. Jordan Westburg: 138 wRC+
5. Adley Rutschman: 130 wRC+
6. Anthony Santander: 127 wRC+
7. Ryan Mountcastle: 123 wRC+
8. Giancarlo Stanton: 121 wRC+

The lineup is very top heavy and it is imperative the Yankees upgrade first and third bases. Will they? I don’t know, but they have to improve the lineup behind the top 3-4 spots. Judge and Soto are amazing and can carry the Yankees to wins and the postseason by themselves. They could use a little more help though. A deeper lineup equals more margin of error. The Orioles have it in a way the Yankees don’t.

Division rivals play 13 times these days and thus seven wins are needed to secure the tiebreaker. The O’s took three of four from the Yankees in Baltimore a few weeks ago and have a nice head start. The Yankees need to win six of their final nine head-to-head games to get the tiebreaker, so two of three in each of their three remaining series. A tall order? Yeah, the Orioles are really good, but it is doable.

Given how good and how close the Orioles and Yankees are, the tiebreaker could be the difference between playing in the Wild Card Series and getting a bye. The 2023 AL West and 2022 NL East were decided by tiebreakers. It’s not some rare occurrence. I’d rather the Yankees have the tiebreaker and not need it than need it and not have it. One thing at a time though. Win the game in front of you.

The Orioles have not lost a series to an AL East team since dropping two of three to the Yankees last April 7-9. They’re 15-0-6 in 21 series against AL East teams since, including 5-0-2 this year. The Yankees are gonna have to beat the Orioles head-to-head to win the division. Can’t count on other teams to do it. The Yankees have the best record in baseball but also the smallest division lead in baseball. Tired of the Orioles, man.

2. The Yankees and 2024 All-Star Week. The All-Star Game is four weeks away and Phase 1 of the fan voting is underway. The first voting update was released Monday and, surprise, Aaron Judge leads all players in votes. Juan Soto is second. Giancarlo Stanton is second at DH and Alex Verdugo is sixth among AL outfielders. They’re the only other Yankees in position to advance to Phase 2. 

Phase 1 runs through June 27th. The top two vote-getters at each position (top six outfielders) advance to Phase 2, then the voting resets, and the starter is picked. The leading vote-getting in each league gets to skip Phase 2 and is automatically named a starter, and that’s Judge in the AL right now. As you know, the All-Star break is not just the All-Star Game. There are a whole host of events:

• Saturday, July 13th: Futures Game

• Sunday, July 14th: Day 1 of 2024 draft

• Monday, July 15th: Home Run Derby

• Tuesday, July 16th: All-Star Game

The All-Star Game is at Globe Life Field in Arlington this year. It’s only the second time the reigning World Series champs will host the All-Star Game. The Giants also did it when they beat the Senators in the 1933 World Series and hosted the 1934 All-Star Game at the Polo Grounds. That was the second ever All-Star Game. This is the second time the Rangers will host the All-Star Game. They also did it in 1995.

With the All-Star break and related festivities creeping closer, let’s dig in and see where the Yankees sit and who could head to Texas next month. We’ll go chronological by event, starting with …

Futures Game

Based on last year’s announcement, the Futures Game rosters should be revealed pretty soon. Within a week or so. MLB has already announced a new Futures Game Skills Showcase. It will take place before the Futures Game and players will participate in three events. Here are the details:

• Hit It Here: Targets will be set up on the infield and in the outfield, and hitters will earn points for hitting them.

• Call Your Shot: Hitters will pick a field and try to hit the ball there, and continue calling their shots until they run out of swings.

• Swing For The Fences: A Home Run Derby, but with extra points awards for opposite field shots and consecutive homers.

Could be fun? I give MLB credit for trying. I’ve been fortunate enough to go to several of these, and the crowd is way bigger and more energetic for the Celebrity Softball Game than the Futures Game. I mean, it’s not even close. It might be that casual fans will just never get into the Futures Game, but at least MLB is trying something new. Maybe these events will be fun, maybe they’ll be lame. Might as well try.

Anyway, the Futures Game is not an All-Star Game for prospects. It’s not the best performers, necessarily. It’s the best prospects, though they will oftentimes stretch the definition of “top prospect” based on who’s available, what positions they need to fill, etc. Rangers legends Michael Young and Adrián Beltré will be the Futures Game managers. Last summer the Yankees sent RHP Clayton Beeter and OF Spencer Jones to the Futures Game. Here are some candidates to represent the Yankees this year.

SS Roderick Arias and SS George Lombard Jr.: It’s too early for these two. They’re both well-regarded, but they are teenagers in Low-A, and it’s not like they’re dominating the league either. Arias is slashing .216/.310/.378 (99 wRC+) and Lombard is at .220/.357/.295 (100 wRC+). The American League team – the Futures Game went to AL vs. NL in 2021 rather than USA vs. World – will have no trouble filling out the middle infield. It’s too early for Arias and Lombard. Anthony Volpe had to wait until Year 2 of his minor league breakout to go to the Futures Game, remember.

OF Spencer Jones: Although he’s starting to heat up – 18-for-61 (.295) with two doubles and four homers and a manageable 30.0 K% in his last 15 games – Jones’ season slash line sits at an underwhelming .232/.321/.372 (98 wRC+). That won’t disqualify him from the Futures Game. It’s a top prospects showcase more than an All-Star Game and Jones is the highest profile Yankees prospect in the minors (not counting Jasson Domínguez, who’s now injured). Jones was a Futures Gamer last year too. He’s not some obscure prospect, you know? I don’t think the meh season matters much. I bet Jones is firmly on the Futures Game radar (and also a candidate for the Swing For The Fences event).

C Agustin Ramirez: Ramirez has been the top performer in the system this year, slashing .290/.374/.571 (160 wRC+) with 16 home runs and a 16.3 K% in 57 Double-A games. He is the Yankees prospect who “deserves” to go to the Futures Game, but “deserves” doesn’t always have much to do with it. AL catcher is pretty stacked, but first base isn’t, and Ramirez has played 15 games at first base this season (mostly to get Ben Rice time behind the plate before he was promoted to Triple-A). Maybe he makes it and plays a few innings at first base rather than behind the plate? Or even just at DH? It will be hard to crack the AL roster as a catcher but I do think Ramirez is a legitimate Futures Game candidate.

1B/C Ben Rice: I can tell you think much: There’s not enough room for Ramirez and Rice in the Futures Game. Ramirez is the better performer this season and more in line with what the Futures Game is about as a young player making his way through the minors, etc. Rice is already 25 and a likely platoon player. A good prospect who could help the Yankees soon – very soon now that Anthony Rizzo is hurt – but not the type of prospect who gets showcased in the Futures Game.

LHP Brock Selvidge: The best performing pitching prospect in the system and an organizational favorite, Selvidge was given the Spring Breakout start and the Yankees could push for him in the Futures Game. It’s not their decision, ultimately, but teams can and do pound the table for their guys. There are shockingly few high-end pitching prospects in the AL right now. There are only six AL pitchers on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects list (there are six NL pitchers just in the top 25) and three figure to be unavailable for the Futures Game:

No. 9: RHP Jackson Jobe, Tigers
No. 38: LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Blue Jays (rehabbing from nerve inflammation in his elbow)
No. 39: LHP Noah Schultz, White Sox
No. 54: RHP Drew Thorpe, White Sox (in MLB)
No. 73: RHP Chase Hampton, Yankees (injured)
No. 100: RHP David Festa, Twins

The AL is gonna have a lot of non-top 100 pitchers on the Futures Game roster and that could open the door for someone like Selvidge, who’s performing well and has a little buzz after Spring Breakout. I think there’s a chance he makes it, which is not a thing I would have expected coming into 2024.

RHP Will Warren: Since his wretched May, Warren has a 2.81 ERA (3.41 FIP) with a 27.3 K% and a .203/.288/.288 opponent’s line in three June starts. He’s getting on track. Other than those four horrible starts last month, Warren’s been pretty good at Triple-A since being promoted last year. May is the outlier, not the norm. Anyway, Gerrit Cole’s imminent return will push Cody Poteet back to Triple-A and thus Warren down a rung on the depth chart. The Yankees might be more willing to let him go to the Futures Game in that case. If he was still next in line for a call up, no, they’d hold him out. With Cole back, they could let Warren go. Is he Futures Game worthy? Warren’s never been on a top 100 list and being the Yankees’ top pitching prospect is not the same as being one of the game’s top pitching prospects, though Beeter went last year under similar circumstances, so who knows. Warren could make it, sure, especially given the lack of tippy top pitching prospects in the AL.

You can’t go much deeper in the organizational prospect rankings for Futures Game candidates. Guys like LHP Kyle Carr, OF Brando Mayea, IF Jared Serna, and 2B Jorbit Vivas aren’t really Futures Game material, no offense to them. My guess is Jones and Ramirez are the two Yankees prospects selected (two is not the minimum or anything, that’s just how many each team usually gets). Neither Selvidge nor Warren make it despite the lack of AL pitching prospects. Now be prepared for someone I did not mention at all to make the Futures Game.

Home Run Derby

No Yankee has participated in the Home Run Derby since Aaron Judge won it in 2017 (Gary Sánchez was also in it that year). Judge has said he’s not interested in doing it again unless it’s in New York. Giancarlo Stanton won it in 2016 and participated in 2014 and 2017. He expressed an interest in the 2022 Home Run Derby because it was in Los Angeles, his hometown, otherwise he’s indicated he’s done with it.

What about Juan Soto? He won the 2022 Home Run Derby and advanced to the second round in 2021. He passed on the Home Run Derby last year. “For me, I've done it. I might do it again in the future, but for now I'm good,” Soto told Todd Strain about skipping it last season. In 2021, Soto credited the Home Run Derby with fixing his swing, which is fun. Fans always worry about it ruining swings. Soto said it fixed his.

Anyway, this is how things seem to go with the Home Run Derby, right? Guys do it once or twice when they are young and early in their careers, then no more. Soto did leave the door open – “I might do it again in the future” – but he had a little forearm scare last month and it is his free agent year. Methinks Soto will skip the Home Run Derby this season. He has a lot on the line these next few weeks. No need to risk anything.

Judge, Soto, and Stanton are the only Yankees anyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby. I don’t think anyone is hankering for Anthony Rizzo or Jose Trevino, you know? Then again, maybe the Home Run Derby will unlock Volpe’s power stroke the way it did Soto’s in 2021. The smart money is again on no Yankees in the Home Run Derby. Lame, but it is what it is.

All-Star Game

The Yankees have had multiple All-Stars every year since 1993 – Roberto Kelly was their only All-Star in 1992 – far and away the longest streak of multiple All-Stars in baseball. The Dodgers have the next longest streak. They last had one All-Star in 2013 (Clayton Kershaw). That streak will surely continue this season. The Yankees will again have multiple All-Stars this year. Who? Let’s dive in.

Locks: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. No need to spend much time on these two. They are the two best hitters in baseball by wRC+ and two of the four best position players by WAR. They’re also megastars. Well-known players who are not some breakout guy flying under the radar. Judge and Soto will be All-Stars. The only question is whether they win the fan voting or go as reserves. Onward.

Not locks, but close to it: Luis Gil and Clay Holmes. Things didn’t come quite as easily for Gil in his last two starts, but 14 starts into his season, he leads the AL with a 2.03 ERA while ranking top 10 in basically everything that matters (ERA+, FIP, WHIP, K%, WAR, etc.). Also, Gil has already faced nine of the other 14 AL teams, so most of the league has seen him. He isn’t sneaking up on anyone.

As for Holmes, he’s got a sub-2.00 ERA (1.80) and the highest ground ball rate in baseball (68.9%), and he’s second in the AL with 19 saves. All-Star Game pitchers are selected through player voting and MLB fills in any gaps. Historically, being second in the league in saves with a sub-2.00 ERA is the kinda thing that gets a reliever to the All-Star Game. Capital-C Closers tend to get voted into the Midsummer Classic.

In each of the last three years there have been 4-5 relievers on the initial All-Star Game rosters, then 5-6 make it to the game once replacements are named. Emmanuel Clase is a lock and Mason Miller figures to have the “that’s the nastiest guy I’ve faced all season” players’ vote secured. Andrés Muñoz belongs in the All-Star Game and so does Kirby Yates. Does that leave enough room for Holmes?

I can’t call Gil and Holmes locks because there always seem to be a few pitchers who deserve to go to the All-Star Game that don’t get in because there aren’t enough roster spots. With offense down this season – the league is hitting .241/.311/.390! – there are a lot of pitchers with All-Star Game numbers. Gil and Holmes have been better than most and are the Yankees pitchers most deserving of All-Star Game nods.

Have a chance: Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodón, and Anthony Volpe. Saturday’s start didn’t help his case, but Rodón has a 3.28 ERA (3.99 FIP) and he’s been an All-Star twice before. Then again, other than wins (and hit batsmen), Rodón isn’t top 10 in the AL in anything. He’s been really good and if the players voted before his ERA crept over 3.00, maybe he gets in. Feels like Rodón falls short though.

The DH spot in the AL is surprisingly bad. AL DHs are collectively hitting .236/.306/.400 (102 wRC+). NL DHs are hitting .248/.329/.419 (113 wRC+), for comparison. Stanton’s 121 wRC+ is third in the league behind Yordan Alvarez (145 wRC+) and Brent Rooker (142 wRC+). His 17 homers lead AL DHs. Figure Alvarez will get in, and they usually don’t take three DHs, so it's Stanton or Rooker for the other spot. Rooker deserves it, frankly. Even if Miller gets in. The A's could have two All-Stars. (At this point in his career, Giancarlo would probably rather have the week off anyway.)

Volpe’s All-Star case is built more on being a famous Yankee than his performance. His .266/.323/.405 (110 wRC+) slash line is good but not amazing, and with the defense it’s +2.4 WAR. Which two of these guys are you keeping home for Volpe?

• Carlos Correa, Twins: .308/.370/.507 (147 wRC+) and +2.5 WAR

• Gunnar Henderson, Orioles: .273/.370/.588 (170 wRC+) and +5.0 WAR

• Corey Seager, Rangers: .258/.348/.459 (123 wRC+) and +2.3 WAR

• Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: .327/.377/.551 (155 wRC+) and +4.3 WAR

Henderson and Witt are no doubt All-Stars and Seager could win the fan voting since the game is in Texas. He could make it as the token Ranger. Yates is the only other Ranger with a strong case given how much time Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Michael Lorenzen missed time with injuries. Volpe has a chance, but it’s a small one. The competition at shortstop is stiff, as always.

Eh, maybe: Jose Trevino, Luke Weaver, and Alex Verdugo. The AL catching crop is really deep this year. Sal Perez is an All-Star Game lock. He’s having a great year and is also very popular around the league, so the players are going to vote for him. The two other catcher spots will come down to:

• Ryan Jeffers, Twins: .233/.318/.481 (127 wRC+) and +1.7 WAR

• Logan O’Hoppe, Angels: .281/.332/.471 (126 wRC+) and +1.3 WAR

• Adley Rutschman, Orioles: .289/.333/.473 (130 wRC+) and +2.2 WAR

• Jose Trevino, Yankees: .271/.317/.451 (119 wRC+) and +1.5 WAR

• Connor Wong, Red Sox: .333/.389/.459 (141 wRC+) and +1.7 WAR

If Correa doesn’t make it, Jeffers could wind up being the token Twin, not that he would be undeserving. Also, beyond the slash lines, Trevino hasn’t even reached 150 plate appearances yet. He’s 14th among AL catchers in plate appearances. It’s hard enough to make the All-Star Game as a glove-first platoon catcher. Add in the quality of the competition and it’s hard to see Trevino making it. It’s fine.

Verdugo is an All-Star compared to the left fielders the Yankees have run out there the last few years, but come on, the only way he goes to the All-Star is if Yankees fans vote him in. He’s a corner outfielder hitting .260/.313/.426 (110 wRC+). The year Brett Gardner was an All-Star, he had a .305/.376/.498 (140 wRC+) line on the final day of June, and even then two outfielders had to get hurt to get him on the roster.

Judge, Soto, Kyle Tucker, and Steven Kwan will be All-Stars, and Riley Greene will probably be the token Tiger. Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill, and Anthony Santander also have stronger All-Star cases than Verdugo. Verdugo’s been very good and what the Yankees needed in left field. An All-Star though? Nah. Either the fans vote him in or a lot of guys will need to be replaced on the roster for him to make it.

Non-closer relievers always have a tough time making the All-Star Game. In the last three years there have been three non-closer All-Star relievers: Andrew Kittredge in 2021, Joe Mantiply in 2022, and Yennier Cano in 2023. Kittredge was an injury replacement too. Weaver’s case is no better than Yimi García’s or Griffin Jax’s or Cade Smith’s. Weaver’s been great, but an All-Star? Nah. His kind rarely make it.

* * *

The Yankees have baseball’s best record and will be well-represented at the All-Star Game. Judge and Soto will be there, no question about it, and I expect Gil and Holmes to be there as well. Rodón, Stanton, and Volpe are longer shots but one of them (probably Stanton?) making it is possible, even just as an injury replacement. I see four Yankees’ All-Stars this season: Gil, Holmes, Judge, and Soto.

3. Pereira has elbow surgery. OF Everson Pereira, who was transferred to the full season injured list last week, had the internal brace procedure two weeks ago, unbeknownst to us. Aaron Boone said Pereira played through the injury thinking it was minor, then he spoke up and went for tests. The internal brace is a Tommy John surgery alternative. It has a shorter rehab, though Pereira’s season is over (hence the full season injured list). 

“Unfortunate. But similar to Jasson, this is something that we fully expect him to come back from,” Boone told Gary Phillips about Pereira’s injury. “… This isn’t something that’s going to hurt his career too much because he should come back full strength.”

Barring a setback, Pereira should be ready for the start of Spring Training. Winter ball is probably pushing it, but Spring Training? Sure. Here are a few position players who’ve gotten the internal brace (via Jon Roegele's indispensable Tommy John surgery database):

• Brendan Donovan: Surgery on Aug. 2nd, 2023, returned Opening Day 2024

• Trevor Story: Surgery on Jan. 9th, 2023, returned Aug. 8th, 2023

• Garrett Cooper: Surgery on Aug. 1st, 2021, returned Opening Day 2022

• Rhys Hoskins: Surgery on Oct. 2nd, 2020, returned Opening Day 2021

Cooper and Donovan were full participants on Day 1 of Spring Training. Hoskins returned to game action about a week into the Grapefruit League schedule. Story missed eight months with his surgery after having it in the offseason (he began playing in rehab games on July 21st). Based on these guys, Pereira should be ready to go for the start of Spring Training. He won’t miss time in 2025.

Which team will employ Pereira come Spring Training? I’m not sure. The injury presumably takes him out of play as a deadline trade chip, and this is Pereira’s final option year. It’s big leagues or waivers next year. Or is it? MLB seems to make up the fourth option rules as they go, but Pereira won’t spend 90 days on active rosters this year, and that should qualify him for a fourth option. Will it though? Beats me.

The Yankees could look to trade Pereira over the winter, after he’s completed his rehab, though you’re not going to get much for him then, I don’t think. They could wait until he shows he’s healthy in Spring Training to trade him, similar to Ben Rortvedt. Or they could just keep him. Maybe Pereira begins 2025 on a rehab assignment and the Yankees delay the roster decision that way? I dunno. This is a problem for later.

I don’t think the Yankees saw Pereira as anything more than short-term outfield depth this season. He was depth in the sense that he’s a 40-man roster player who was performing well in Triple-A (118 wRC+), but if the Yankees needed an everyday outfielder, I think Jasson Domínguez (before his side injury) and Trent Grisham were first in line. Need an outfielder to sit on the bench for two weeks? Okay, Pereira. Otherwise the Yankees would turn to someone else.

That extra layer of depth is gone, but honestly, if things get to the point where we’re lamenting Pereira not being healthy, there are much bigger problems. The larger issue is not having him available as a trade chip at the deadline and maybe not in the offseason. What happens with Pereira in 2025 is something to worry about later. For now, hopefully all goes well with his rehab. Bummer of an injury.

4. 2024 draft prospect: Stanford C Malcolm Moore. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

This is not a great draft class but it is deep in bat-first college catchers, with Moore being one of four who could come off the board within the first 40 picks or so (also NC State's Jacob Cozart, Sam Houston's Walker Janek, and Cal's Caleb Lomavita). He was a consensus top 75-ish draft prospect out of high school in 2022, but he was strongly committed to Stanford, so no team selected him. Moore is a draft-eligible sophomore this time around and is a data over performance prospect.

Moore slashed .311/.386/.564 with 15 homers and freshman-y strikeout (16.8%) and walk (7.0%) rates last spring. This season he hit .255/.414/.553 with 16 homers and more walks (18.0%) than strikeouts (14.3%). Batting average isn’t everything, but a potential first round pick hitting .255? Even as a catcher in a power conference, that’s an eyebrow-raiser. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have Moore:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 28

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 18

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 26

• MLB Pipeline: No. 24

Because of position scarcity, catchers are often drafted higher than the rankings would lead you to expect, and Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) says some teams have Moore in the 13-15 range on their draft board. He also says a few others have him outside their 25. I suspect that wide range is common for back of the first round types. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

There is still confidence that Moore will hit at the next level. He makes a lot of hard contact to all fields and has easily plus raw power he showed he can tap into with 15 home runs as a freshman. He’s shown he can have an advanced approach at the plate, including doing damage with two strikes, though he wore out catching every day in his first year of college. While his surface numbers were down for much of his sophomore season, he still had elite chase rates and swing-and-miss rates in the zone.

If teams think he can be an average catcher, he could easily be considered a top 10 pick, but scouts aren’t quite as convinced on his glove as they are on his bat. He’s not a bad receiver and moves decently enough, with some scouts seeing improvement behind the dish this spring. He’ll flash an average arm, but it’s often more fringy, though some of that can be cleaned up with improved footwork. Even if a team thinks he’ll need to move to first base, his offensive potential could make him a first-rounder.

Keith Law (subs. req’d) says Moore has had “terrible luck at the plate this spring but he’s not punching out and his contact quality points to a higher average than he’s had on balls in play.” Baseball America (subs. req’d) adds “most of his homers have gone to the pull-side and straightaway center” and “(he has) some swing-and-miss questions against secondaries in particular.”

Data published by Carlos Collazo (subs. req’d) recently shows Moore added 10 percentage points to his contact rate and cut eight percentage points off his chase rate this year, and his 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is good for college hitters in the draft class but not elite. Moore has a bit of an unusual setup at the plate. He starts open, then toe taps back into his load and takes a bit ol’ back.

That looks a bit like Alex Verdugo, no? Verdugo starts his hands lower than Moore, but he starts with the same open stance and toe taps into his load. Stanford used to teach all their hitters to chop down on the ball and hit grounders the other way. The “Stanford swing” had to be coached out of their players in pro ball and thankfully isn’t a thing anymore. They teach their guys to launch, similar to Moore. Like it or not, pro teams dig swings and approaches like this.

The Yankees helped Austin Wells go from “he can’t catch” to rating as a positive defender at everything but throwing. They’ve also shown a willingness to accept below-average defense to get offense at the catcher position (see: Sánchez, Gary). Maybe this is recency bias because of Wells, but Moore seems right up the Yankees’ alley as a lefty bat with thump and a chance to catch.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)