June 14th, 2024: Rodón, Tonkin, Bullpen Trade Targets, Mailbag

Turns out the new road jerseys were Aaron Judge’s idea. Well, not entirely. Judge liked the throwback uniforms the Yankees wore in the Field of Dreams Game a few years ago and mentioned it to clubhouse manager Rob Cucuzza, who ran it up the flagpole. That put the wheels in motion and now the Yankees have these sharp new road uniforms with navy blue lettering on gray jerseys with no white border. Ron Blum has the full story. Also, Clay Holmes’ new closer entrance? Judge pushed for that too, according to Pete Caldera. Gonna need Judge to get in management’s ear about ticket and concession prices being so damn high next, and use his pull for good. Here is today’s entirely too long post as the starting pitchers become candle connoisseurs.

1. Weekday thoughts. Thursday’s loss was a letdown, but I won’t complain about taking three of four on the road. It’s a long season. You’re gonna win some games you’re supposed to lose and you’re gonna lose some games you’re supposed to win. The Yankees are 17-2 with a +50 run differential against AL Central teams, and the two losses were walk-offs in games the Yankees led in the ninth inning or later (remember this?). They are 32-20 with a +77 run differential against non-AL Central teams, which is a 100-win pace. The road to the postseason is paved with wins against teams you’re supposed to beat. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Rodón’s resurgence continues

A year ago Carlos Rodón made his 14th start of the season in Kansas City, and got roughed up for eight runs without recording an out. It was the tenth time in history a pitcher allowed at least eight runs without  getting an out. Rodón also turned his back on Matt Blake during a mound visit. It was his final start of the season and it went about as poorly as possible, both that start and Rodón’s 2023 overall.

This year Rodón made his 14th start of the season in Kansas City, and he held the Royals to one run in seven innings (video). It was his seventh straight quality start. Rodón’s given up three runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts and two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts. Through 14 starts, Rodón’s 2023 and 2024 could not be any more different. The 14th start coming in Kansas City is the only similarity.

“I tried to flush (last year’s start in Kansas City) early on, but you know, it’s hard to get that one out of your head. It wasn’t just one start. It was a culmination of the whole ‘23 season that wasn’t so great. That definitely motivated me,” Rodón told Jackson Stone after Monday’s win. “… I definitely knew this game was coming. It was circled on the calendar, and I wanted to show up and give my team the best chance to win after coming out of here last year with what happened and not pitching well. I definitely remembered that.”

Last year Rodón dealt with numerous injuries (forearm, back, hamstring) and never got on track. He always seemed to be working his way back from something. Rodón dropped some weight in the offseason, had a normal winter and Spring Training, and he’s been a roll pretty much since Opening Day. In terms of production – a sub-3.00 ERA and roughly six innings per start – Rodón is giving the Yankees what they want.

He is not going about it the way we all expected though, not that that’s automatically a bad thing. With the Giants from 2021-22, Rodón was the game’s premier bat-misser among all pitchers, not just lefties. He had the highest fastball whiff rate in the game. That fastball whiff rate took a dip last year though, and another dip this season. Rodón’s 17.6% fastball whiff rate this year is well south of the 21.7% league average.

This is a big deal. If Clay Holmes suddenly stopped getting ground balls with his sinker, we would all worry. The Yankees signed Rodón expecting him to be a top tier bat-misser, and he’s not. And once this became apparent, Rodón and the Yankees went to work, and adjusted his arsenal. That new cutter in Spring Training? It's pretty much gone. Instead, Rodón’s throwing fewer fastballs and more sliders, curveballs, and changeups.

The current version of Rodón reminds me a bit of Masahiro Tanaka, who also scaled back on his fastball when it wasn’t doing what he wanted. Rodón is not doing it to the same degree as Tanaka (not yet, anyway), but it’s the same idea. My fastball isn’t an elite pitch anymore, so let’s not use it as much and lean on other pitches instead. That was Tanaka and now that’s Rodón.

The models love Rodón. He’s at 120 Stuff+ overall, behind only Jared Jones (129), Hunter Greene (124), and Dylan Cease (122), and he’s top 10 in Stuff+ on fastballs (113), sliders (144), and changeups (116). No other pitcher is top 10 in all three of fastballs (four-seamers or sinkers), breaking balls (sliders or curves), and changeups. Only a handful are top 10 in two pitch types. Rodón is below average in location (98 Location+), so it’s stuff over command, but it works.

“He’s got a presence all over the strike zone,” Aaron Boone told Stone. “His fastball up, he’s been getting it where he wants to. The slider has been good. We’ve seen him feature more and more of the changeup that’s become a real factor for him. I think just having a presence up in the strike zone, but also down and on both sides of the plate. When you can do that, and have quality stuff, you have the chance to be successful, and that’s what we are seeing.”

Rodón is an All-Star Game candidate. Whether he actually goes to the All-Star Game is another matter, the numbers crunch could leave him on the outside, but just the fact we’re talking about Rodón as a possible All-Star is a huge win after last season. Credit to him for bouncing back and proving all the doubters (including me) wrong. The Yankees needed Rodón to step up during Gerrit Cole’s absence and step up he has. 

Whatcha Tonkin about???

The Yankees rolled into Kansas City with a tired bullpen and that pushed Michael Tonkin into closing duty Monday. He pitched around a one-out walk to record his second career save (video). The first was last June 15th, when he threw the final 3.1 innings of a blowout win for the Braves. Tonkin threw 19 pitches and 1.2 innings Friday, 20 pitches and 1.2 innings Saturday, then he was right back out there getting the save Monday.

“It’s good to get in a groove and get comfortable, and be in a position where I feel like I’m not scared that I’m going to get tapped on the shoulder after every game,” Tonkin, who is already on his third team of 2024, told Mark Sanchez after Monday’s game. “… (This season has been) chaotic, I guess. The first month was less than ideal. To be here now, it’s all worth it.”

Tonkin has a 0.89 ERA (2.31 FIP) in 20.1 innings since the Yankees claimed him from the Mets in late April. He is ascending into the Circle of Trust™, which says as much about Tommy Kahnle (missing velocity after the shoulder injury) and Ian Hamilton (struggling the last few weeks) as it does Tonkin. His first appearance as a Yankee was that messy extra-innings game in Milwaukee. His next eight appearances came with the Yankees up eight, down five, up nine, down five, up five, up five, down four, and up five. Now four of his last five appearances have come with the score separated by no more than two runs. Earning trust in real time.

“(He has) guts. He’s fearless out there and really, really competitive,” Boone told Sanchez. “He’s fit in well in that room.”

The Yankees have tweaked a few things with Tonkin and the changes are very Yankees-like. He’s throwing more sliders and more sinkers while cutting back on his four-seamer. These are relatively new changes too. It wasn’t until his fifth appearance as a Yankee that Tonkin started to spam hitters with his slider. Since then, it’s been a heavy dose of sliders with more sinkers than he was throwing earlier this year.

Great, so more sliders and more sinkers. Tonkin’s stuff is unremarkable though. Velocity is average, spin is average, and his slider drops more than usual but nothing that stands out too much. His movement is otherwise just okay. With all due respect, watching Tonkin pitch, his stuff looks like what you find on the waiver wire. It’s suited more for lower leverage work than important outs.

What makes Tonkin stand out is not his stuff, but rather his release. He’s a big dude. He’s listed at 6-foot-7, and despite his height, Tonkin has a low release point. He’s 6-foot-7 and yet his average release height is 5.23 feet. Among the 204 pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown this season, Tonkin has the 21st lowest release point. His release point is lower than Marcus Stroman’s (5.26 feet) and Stroman’s 5-foot-7!

Also, given his height, you’d expect Tonkin to get really far down the mound and release the ball closer to the plate. That isn’t the case. His average extension is only 6.2 feet. That is 45th lowest among those 204 pitchers with 500 pitches thrown. Shallow release points are tricky. The ball is in the air longer, so the spin has more time to take effect, and the ball just kinda keeps moving. More than the hitter expects.

So much of pitching is being different and weird. Tonkin is this big tall dude with a funky delivery – it almost looks like he shot-puts the ball* – who doesn’t release the ball in a way hitters are used to seeing. It comes from a low slot and not that far down the mound. Tonkin’s not a big bat-misser (23.5 K% with the Yankees), but he gets grounders (54.5%) and limits hard contact (1.8% barrel rate). A good foundation, that is.

* Tonkin told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) he picked up that short arm action when he spent the 2020 pandemic season at home. He said his velocity jumped, so he stuck with it.

Tonkin is really easy to root for. He’s 34 and a true journeyman who’s had stints in Japan (2018), with the Long Island Ducks (2019-21), and in the Mexican League (2021). And who doesn’t love baseball players who don’t look like baseball players? Is this a man who closed a game for the New York Yankees earlier this week, or a man trying to figure out if he has time to stop at Ace Hardware before tomorrow’s PTA meeting?

If this is just a replacement level guy having a random stretch of good games – Tonkin is at +0.5 WAR with the Yankees and -0.7 WAR the rest of his career – then that’s what it is. I thought A.J. Cole was a possible stud once upon a time too. The Yankees force us to pay attention to guys like this though because they’ve had so much success with them. Perhaps they really did figure out how to maximize Tonkin’s unusual release.

For now, Tonkin is doing nice work filling the middle innings void until Kahnle and/or Hamilton get on track, and/or the Yankees go outside the organization for help. No offense to him, but the longer we can consider Tonkin a surprise contributor rather than a crucial part of the bullpen, the better. I didn’t expect him to be around this long when the Yankees claimed him, and now here he is getting big outs. 

The Bronx Bunters

First the Yankees hit eight triples in a 12-game span, then they bunted three times in a single game. Who is this team? The Yankees laid down three – three! – sacrifice bunts in Monday’s win. The bunt recap:

• 1st inning: DJ LeMahieu squeeze bunted a run in (video)

• 4th inning: Jahmai Jones bunted two runners up, then Jose Trevino drove them in (video)

• 9th inning: Trevino bunted a runner up, though the Yankees did not score (video)

Jones was almost certainly bunting for a hit. Either that or forgot how many outs there were, but nah. Looked like an attempt to bunt for a hit that turned into a sacrifice. Two out of three bunts worked in that they contributed to runs, and hey, that’s a pretty good conversion rate. The Yankees had four sac bunts on the season going into Monday’s game, and two were Anthony Volpe trying to push bunt for a hit (video).

“Not that I expect us to be a team that’s bunting a lot or stealing bases a lot – it’s not necessarily our personnel – but we have guys that can play that game. There are certain times you have to do little things on a diamond to help you win a ballgame,” Boone told Sanchez. “… It’s more stress (on the other team) that helps you win a game that you’re not slugging your way to or it’s not just a dominant pitching outing.”

Monday was the first time the Yankees had three sac bunts in a game since Sept. 22nd, 2012 against the Athletics. Derek Jeter, Jayson Nix, and Ichiro Suzuki did the honors. That game went 14 innings though, and the third bunt was part of the game-winning rally in the 14th. You might remember that game. Raul Ibañez hit a game-tying homer in the 13th and Eduardo Núñez won it on a walk-off error (video).

Before Monday, the last time the Yankees had three sac bunts in a game that didn’t go to extra innings and wasn’t an interleague game in an NL park without the DH was July 29th, 1990 in Cleveland. Bob Geren had two of the three bunts. Steve Sax had the other. It had been nearly 34 years since the Yankees last did what they did Monday (sac bunt three times in a nine-inning game with the DH). Pretty wild.

Order was restored Tuesday when the Yankees launched three home runs, including long blasts by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (video). Triples and bunts are cool (at least when the bunt works), but the Yankees we saw Tuesday and Wednesday are who the Yankees are built to be. They’re built to slug. Sometimes though, you have to break out the small ball, and the Yankees did it in Monday’s win.

A quick note on Poteet and Cole’s looming return

Another solid start for Cody Poteet on Wednesday: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K on 88 pitches (video). He pitched in the middle of the plate more than he did in his first three starts, though not a ton, and the pitches he did throw middle-middle looked like mistakes, not challenge pitches. Poteet is in the top 10% of the league in edge rate. He’s done fine work living on the corners through four starts.

Gerrit Cole will make his third rehab start Friday night and the Yankees have an off-day coming up Monday. If Cole’s rehab start goes well, I wonder if the Yankees will use the off-day to push Poteet’s spot back to Thursday, then slot Cole in. That would give Cole an extra day of rest before rejoining the Yankees and also allow them to a) use Poteet out of the bullpen Tuesday and/or Wednesday, or b) option Poteet as soon as tonight and bring up an extra reliever until Cole returns.

Even if Cole needs another rehab start, the Yankees can still use Monday’s off-day to push Poteet’s start out of next week’s important Orioles series. Instead of Poteet, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Gil in that order, the Yankees could go with Cortes, Gil, and Rodón against Baltimore, all on normal rest. The Yankees have the next four Mondays off. There will be opportunities to rearrange the rotation and give guys extra rest. This is an opportunity to be aggressive with the off-day, and skip the fill-in No. 5 starter and get Rodón in there against the O’s.

Anyway, those are just some quick thoughts on the roster and rotation possibilities as Cole nears his return. Hopefully Friday’s rehab start goes well and the Yankees are able to slot him in sometime next week. And if Cole needs a fourth rehab start, then he needs a fourth rehab start. The Yankees don’t have to rush him back. Poteet is holding the fort down nicely.

Miscellany

Juan Soto returned to the lineup at DH on Monday and he returned to the field on Tuesday, and he looked like Juan Soto. He went 4-for-11 with five walks in the Royals series and his at-bats looked as good as ever. He wasn't shy about taking big swings or making throw either. Guess the forearm is feeling good … Judge’s on-base streak ended the ugly way: 0-for-4 with four strikeouts Thursday. His 37-game on-base streak is the longest by any player this season, and the longest by a Yankee since Judge had a 45-gamer spanning 2021 and 2022. The last Yankee other than Judge to have an on-base streak this long was DJ LeMahieu (37 games in 2021). Judge is down to .302/.428/.690 (209 wRC+) on the season. Is it time to worry??? … Volpe tripled again Tuesday night. It hit the top of the wall and nearly went out (video). That gave Volpe five triples in a 17-game span. He’s the first Yankee with five doubles in 17 games since Derek Jeter spanning the end of 1998 and the start of 1999. Volpe has seven triples with 91 games remaining. He has a chance to become the first Yankee with 10 triples in a season since Brett Gardner had 10 in 2013. The last Yankee with more than 10 triples in a season was Willie Randolph. He had 13 in 1979. Can Volpe catch Willie? … Anthony Rizzo hit his first home run since May 10th on Thursday (video). It was the first sign of life we’ve seen from his bat since, well, May 10th. I hope that gets Rizzo going, but I’ve said that a lot the last 12 months … Infield single, line drive single, ground ball double inside the line and a blown save for Holmes on Thursday. I don’t understand why the Yankees had LeMahieu playing so far off the line on that double:

The no-doubles defense is going out of style, I guess. When the Yankees win games, it feels routine. When they lose games, it feels like a million different things had to go wrong … And finally, I understand pairing Daniel Lynch with an opener, but what’s with the Royals using Dan Altavilla as the opener? The entire point of the opener is to use a good reliever against the top of the lineup, not a guy who got called up two days ago and is back in the big leagues for the first time since 2021. I dunno, man. Seems like some teams have lost the plot with openers.

Injury updates and roster moves

As noted, Cole will make his third and possibly final rehab start with Triple-A Scranton on Friday. He threw 45 pitches and 57 pitches in his first two rehab starts, and is expected to throw 65-70 pitches Friday. What’s the plan after that? “We’ll see,” Boone told Max Goodman. I’m curious to hear what Cole thinks about the automated strike zone after Friday’s start … Jasson Domínguez’s rehab is over. The Yankees activated him and optioned him to Triple-A on Wednesday. They also moved Jon Berti to the 60-day injured list even though they didn’t need a 40-man roster spot for Dominguez. They still had an open spot after DFAing Dennis Santana, who was claimed off waivers by the Pirates. Eh, whatever. Berti’s spot will get used when Cole returns. El Marciano hit .368/.415/.658 (189 wRC+) with six homers and a better than average 20.3 K% in 20 rehab games. I’m glad his bat showed immediate signs of life and didn’t make us wonder how long it would take to knock the rust off. Not-so-bold prediction: Domínguez is back in the big leagues before Aug. 1st … And finally, Everson Pereira’s season is over. I don’t know what’s wrong with him, but he’s been on Scranton’s injured list since May 30th and the Yankees moved him to the full season injured list on Wednesday (the “full season” injured list is a thing in the minors). Pereira was a prime piece of trade bait at the deadline. So much for that. He hit .265/.346/.512 (118 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 40 Triple-A games before the injury. This is Pereira’s final minor league option year. Not sure what the future holds for him.

Up next

The first Yankees vs. Red Sox series of the season. Believe it or not, there are still three other intradivision matchups that have not yet happened in 2024: Angels vs. Athletics, Blue Jays vs. Red Sox, and Pirates vs. Reds. Blue Jays vs. Red Sox and Pirates vs. Reds will happen next week. The first Angels vs. Athletics series of the season is still two weeks away. Here are the weekend’s pitching matchups:

• Friday at Red Sox: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Brayan Bello (6:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Saturday at Red Sox: RHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Cooper Criswell (7pm ET on FOX)

• Sunday at Red Sox: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Kutter Crawford (7pm ET on ESPN)

Do we really need two national broadcasts for a Yankees vs. Red Sox series in the year 2024? It’s been a few years since the rivalry had any real juice. Whatever. The Yankees have an off-day coming up Monday, so at least they won’t have to travel to another city overnight and play a game Monday like last weekend.

Over the last three weeks the Red Sox have been 26-26, 27-27, 28-28, 29-29, 30-30, 31-31, 32-32, 33-33, and 34-34. The commitment to being .500 is impressive. If the pattern continues, the 35-34 Red Sox will lose Friday night. Might as well just take the night off then. We already know the outcome.

Through 35 games the Red Sox had a 2.61 ERA and everyone was like wow, their pitching is so improved! But that ignored the MLB-leading 30 – 30! – unearned runs they allowed in those 35 games. Unearned runs count! Thirty-five games into the season, a quarter of the runs they allowed were unearned. Their defense, particularly on the infield, is really shaky, and that doesn’t always show up in ERA.

Order has been restored since those first 35 games and the Red Sox have a 4.25 ERA (plus 15 unearned runs) in the 34 games since. That’s more in line with what’s expected from the talent on the roster. It’s a Fenway Park series, so there will be offense no matter what names are in the lineup. Rafael Devers is still the proverbial “can’t let him beat you” guy. The rest of Boston’s offense? Meh.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Bat-missing relievers. The trade deadline is six weeks and four days away and the Yankees have two clear needs: a corner infielder and bullpen help. And hopefully it stays just two clear needs too. We don’t need anyone getting hurt or underperforming, and creating a need elsewhere. Finding a corner infielder could be tough. That’s a conversation for another day.

The bullpen situation is a bit weird because, objectively, the Yankees have a very good bullpen. One of the best in the league, in fact. They rank near the top of the league in most important categories. The bullpen’s ranks following Thursday’s game:

• ERA: 3.19 (3rd in MLB)

• FIP: 3.85 (14th)

• K%: 21.9% (21st)

• BB%: 9.9% (22nd)

• GB%: 46.8% (3rd)

• HR/9: 0.74 (3rd)

• Inherited runners scored: 32% (10th)

• WPA: +3.30 (5th)

• WAR: +2.5 (11th)

Inherited runners are finicky because stranding a runner at first with two outs is not the same as stranding runners at second and third with no outs, but on a team-wide scale, the Yankees have done a good job picking up the guy exiting the game. That strikeout rate is a real issue and has been all season though. As good as the bullpen has been overall, the Yankees need more swing-and-miss in their relief crew. Someone who can come in and throw a fastball by a hitter.

With that in mind, here are a few relievers who could be available at the deadline and would help the Yankees with their swing-and-miss issue. This is the first batch of names, not a final list. I’m sure we’ll look at more relievers as we get closer to the deadline and the market takes shape.

LHP Jake Diekman, Mets

2024 stats: 3.68 ERA (4.69 FIP), 30.4 K%, 16.3 BB%, 1.23 HR/9 in 22 IP
Contract status: $4M in 2024 plus $4M club option for 2025

Diekman is doing Diekman things this season. Ton of strikeouts, ton of walks, and lefties can’t do anything but draw walks against him (.152/.310/.182 and .248 wOBA). Victor González and Caleb Ferguson have yet to inspire confidence as high leverage left-on-left guys. Diekman’s been there, done that even though he’s always had No. 1 lefty stuff with No. 2 lefty command. You take the good with the bad.

The NL is extremely top heavy and the Mets are only three games out of a Wild Card spot despite a 30-37 record. I don’t think hanging around the race would preclude the Mets from trading Diekman (or any other rental reliever) though. They probably won’t trade Pete Alonso if they hang around the race, but Diekman? The bullpen has been a problem for the Mets all year. They have to turn things over and trading Diekman helps that.

Diekman is 37 years old and 13 years into his career. He is what he is at this point. There is no “fixing” him. There is just helping him be good for the next 20-30 innings before he goes back to the guy he’s been his entire career. Diekman doesn’t hit 100 mph these days, he tops out at 97-98 mph now, but it’s still plenty of velocity and he misses bats. The walks are rough. The rest is pretty good though.

RHP Lucas Erceg, Athletics

2024 stats: 2.57 ERA (3.86 FIP), 30.8 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.19 HR/9 in 22.2 IP
Contract status: Pre-arbitration from 2024-25, arbitration-eligible from 2026-29 as Super Two

Everyone loves Mason Miller, that guy is ridiculous*, but I just can’t see the Yankees paying top dollar for the reliever flavor of the month. The asking price is said to be very high, and as good as Miller is, we are talking about a guy who missed 2022 with a shoulder injury and missed four months with a UCL strain in 2024. He has future injured Yankee written all over him, as is tradition when A’s pitchers come to the Yankees.

* Did you know Miller has allowed nine runs and three homers in his last 9.2 innings?

Miller is not the only interesting hard-throwing righty in Oakland’s bullpen. Erceg is a former Brewers prospect and a third baseman who converted to pitching because he couldn’t hit. He's a true four-pitch reliever who throws his four-seamer, sinker, changeup, and slider all at least 20% of the time. He’s capable of going 4-6 outs too (I kinda wonder if he can start?). Seems the A’s found a good one here. Here’s Erceg annihilating the Yankees a few weeks ago.

Erceg, 29, came off the injured list Wednesday. He missed the minimum 15 days with forearm tightness, which is always scary, but we’ll have several weeks to see how he holds up between now and the trade deadline. It’s late-inning stuff, it’s strikeouts and grounders, and it’s long-term control (depending how you value that with relievers). Erceg isn’t Miller, but he is very good.

For what it's worth, Jim Bowden (subs. req’d) says the A’s want near-MLB-ready position players for Erceg (and Miller). Who is that, exactly? I don’t know. The A’s thought Esteury Ruiz was a budding superstar and took him in the Sean Murphy trade rather than William Contreras. Do they have interest in Oswald Peraza? Ben Rice? Jorbit Vivas? Might as well call and ask. You never know when the A’s will be willing to give good players away. I’d be interested to see what Matt Blake & Co. could do with Erceg.

RHP Yimi García, Blue Jays

2024 stats: 1.98 ERA (2.37 FIP), 36.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 0.66 HR/9 in 27.1 IP
Contract status: $5M in 2024

Yimbo is the ideal bullpen addition. He’s pitched at something close to this level since the start of last year and he’s an extreme bat-misser who neutralizes righties and lefties. García pitches up with a four-seamer, down with a curveball, armside with a sinker, and gloveside with a sweeper. He has a weapon for everyone and he’s AL East battle-tested (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Trades within the division are always complicated, plus the Blue Jays are 14-10 in their last 24 games, so they are right in the Wild Card mix. Unless they completely crater these next few weeks, it’s hard to see them as sellers, and García is their best reliever. They’d get a haul for him (or at least as much of a haul as you can get for a reliever these days), but Toronto needs him to make a run at a postseason berth.

This is the prototype though. A reliever who piles up strikeouts, can get both righties and lefties, and is used to pitching in postseason races (García was with the Dodgers all those years). I hope the Blue Jays fall out of the race for many reasons, not the least of which is making García available at the trade deadline. He fits what the Yankees need extremely well.

RHP Michael Kopech, White Sox

2024 stats: 4.76 ERA (5.44 FIP), 31.8 K%, 14.0 BB%, 1.91 HR/9 in 28.1 IP
Contract status: $3M in 2024 and arbitration-eligible in 2025

I’m not sure if I’m surprised Kopech is still only 28 or is already 28, but he is 28, and he feels like the perfect Matt Blake project. Stuff has never been an issue here. It’s upper-90s gas with good (but not elite) spin and shape, and a hard mid-to-upper-80s slider. For whatever reason the White Sox have Kopech throwing 80% fastballs and 20% sliders/cutters this year, his first as a traditional one-inning reliever.

The White Sox used Kopech very heavily earlier in his career (the Tony La Russa years) and he’s had a bunch of injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2018, hamstring trouble in 2021, knee trouble in 2022, and shoulder problems in 2022 and 2023. La Russa and the White Sox rode him pretty hard, mostly by leaving him to navigate stressful 35+ pitch innings, and his body kept giving out. Almost every reliever comes with injury risk. Kopech is no different.

Walks (career 12.3%) and homers (career 1.57 HR/9) have always been part of Kopech’s game, though it is possible a smart team can curb those issues. Clay Holmes is an extreme example, but he did go from 14.9 BB% with the Pirates to 7.3 BB% with the Yankees. It can be done. Adjust his arsenal a tad and Kopech could become an MFer real quick. As it stands, he’s among the best strikeout relievers in the game.

LHP Andrew Nardi, Marlins

2024 stats: 5.04 ERA (2.15 FIP), 29.2 K%, 6.6 BB%, 0.36 HR/9 in 25 IP
Contract status: Pre-arbitration from 2024-25, arbitration-eligible from 2026-28

I wrote about Nardi, who the Yankees drafted in the 39th round in 2017 but did not sign, and several other Marlins relievers over the winter, and it’s time to circle back. I was poking around leaderboards the other day for something unrelated, and I stumbled across this:

Two of the six relievers I’m highlighting as possible trade targets are atop the edge rate leaderboard (min. 75 batters faced). Didn’t plan that, I swear. No one pitches on the edges of the zone as much as these two. Nardi’s home run rate is going to rise at some point, you usually can’t maintain a 3.3% HR/FB rate with a 32.8 GB%, though the strikeouts and walks are in line with the rest of his career.

Nardi, 25, bullies lefties. He’s held them to a .167/.238/.281 (.233 wOBA) line with 35.7 K% since the start of last season. Nardi’s not great against righties but not terrible either (.336 wOBA), and he does it with a pretty straightforward 60/40 split with his mid-90s fastball and low-80s slider (GIF via Rob Friedman):

The Marlins hired POBO Peter Bendix away from the Rays and, presumably, he harbors the same “don’t fall in love with relievers, they’re all fungible” beliefs as Tampa. They’re already selling (Luis Arraez was traded weeks ago) and there’s no reason for a team this bad to keep a good reliever. I fully expect Nardi (and Anthony Bender, Tanner Scott, etc.) to be available at the deadline. Or maybe right now!

Two years ago the Yankees gave up Hayden Wesneski for 5.5 years of Scott Effross, which could serve as a template for a Nardi trade (and also as a cautionary tale). Then again, Bendix went quantity over quality with the Arraez trade, and that is a very Rays way of doing business. Maybe it’ll take 2-3 lesser prospects rather than one good prospect? Not sure. Nardi misses bats and shuts down lefties though. Not hard to see how he fits.

RHP Paul Sewald, Diamondbacks

2024 stats: 0.87 ERA (3.15 FIP), 29.7 K%, 5.4 BB%, 0.87 HR/9 in 10.1 IP
Contract status: $7.35M in 2024

Sewald pulled an oblique in Spring Training and missed the first few weeks of the regular season, but he’s back now and pitching like he has the last few years. He is the quintessential modern reliever as a “uses a low arm slot to pitch up with his fastball and sweep his sweeper” guy. Plenty of whiffs, doesn’t beat himself with walks, will give up a dinger when the sweeper hangs or the fastball isn’t high enough.

It wasn’t until midway through 2022 that Sewald became a most of the time closer. The Mariners have been very flexible with their bullpen since trading away Edwin Díaz, opting to match up with their top relievers rather than assign innings, so Sewald has experience doing everything. Closing, setup, entering a jam, etc. The Yankees could keep Holmes at closer and use Sewald as their Moment of Truth™ reliever, or vice versa.

The defending NL champs took a 32-36 record into Thursday’s game, yet because NL is so mediocre, the D’Backs are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. For Sewald to become a trade candidate, Arizona will have to crash hard these next few weeks, and I’m not sure even that would be enough to push them to sell. No matter how bad things look, you’re always a good week away from being in the race in the NL.

* * *

García is the dream. That’s the exact skill set the Yankees need. Only problem is the Blue Jays are unlikely to sell, and if they do sell, there will be enough interest in García that they won’t have to trade him within the AL East. Diekman is a solid veteran rental, Erceg and Nardi are solutions for now and later (Ferguson, Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga, and possibly Luke Weaver will all be free agents after the season), and Sewald probably won’t be available. The NL is bad enough that the D-Backs will hang in the race. Too bad. He’d be a nice get.

Other than Lou Trivino as the second piece in the Frankie Montas trade, the Yankees have not traded for an established veteran reliever with a long-ish track record at the deadline since Zack Britton in 2018. They’ve instead traded for reclamation projects (Holmes) or short track record guys (Effross, Keynan Middleton, etc.) at easy to swallow prices. The Yankees build their bullpen on the cheap. It’s what they do, and to their credit, they are pretty good at it.

Chances are the Yankees will do the same at this year’s deadline, but with the team being so good and the need for a bat-misser so obvious, I hope they’re open to veteran relievers. Bullpen guys are unpredictable, I know that, but walling off an entire subset of relievers doesn’t seem wise. Not everything has to make you look like the smartest guy in the room. Sometimes you should just pay the price and get the veteran because he’s the best available player. We’ll see which way the Yankees go this deadline.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Oklahoma HS LHP Kash Mayfield. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Mayfield, 19, had a big workload last spring after helping his high school make a deep postseason run, so he skipped summer showcase events to rest. As a result, he wasn’t really on the radar coming into this spring, but he’s had a great year and teams have run Mayfield up draft boards even though he’s one of the oldest high schoolers in the draft class. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 29

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 23

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 32

• MLB Pipeline: No. 28

The latest mock drafts all say teams in the No. 15-20 range have interest in Mayfield, so he might not be an option for the Yankees at No. 26. Then again, no one really knows what’s going to happen with the draft still a month away. Here’s video and here is MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

After working with an upper-80s fastball last spring, Mayfield is dealing at 92-95 mph and reaching 97 with armside run and carry. He already possesses an advanced changeup that parks in the low 80s and drops at the plate, making his heater even more effective. His slurvy upper-70s breaking ball stands out more for his ability to locate it than its power or shape … Mayfield creates extension with his fluid delivery and repeats it well, enabling him to put his pitches where he wants.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Mayfield has “established a reputation as one of the better strike-throwers” in the draft class, and Keith Law (subs. req’d) adds “(if) he were a college pitcher, he’d be a top-10 pick in this class.” A 6-foot-4, 200 lb. lefty with mid-90s gas, a very good changeup, and the ability to throw consistent strikes? Sign me up. That’s a strong foundation.

There are two knocks on Mayfield. One, he’s already 19 with a February birthday, so he is on the older side. The track record of older high schoolers in pro ball isn’t great, though it is a bit better for pitchers than hitters. And two, teams don’t have data on him from last summer’s showcases. He didn’t play. Teams that lean heavily on analytical models will ding Mayfield for age and also the lack of data.

Every team uses analytical models for draft prospects, even the Rockies, but some lean on it more heavily than others (coughRayscough). The Yankees are definitely more on the analytical side, but they use their scouts as well, and Mayfield is an eye test > data prospect simply because the data is limited. Mayfield’s developmental needs (i.e. develop a consistent breaking ball) align nicely with what the Yankees do well.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Anonymous asks: Please do the math for me. If you take out April, Aaron Judge is on pace for the rest of the year - Average, HR , RBI, OPS? And then add back in April figures- Totals for the year?

Judge finished April with a .207/.340/.414 (118 wRC+) line and six doubles and six homers in 31 games in 141 plate appearances. This absolutely insane stretch started a few days earlier on April 24th (2-for-5 with a homer against the Athletics), but April 30th is a convenient cut-off point, so let’s roll with that.

In his 39 games and 167 plate appearances since May 1st, Judge is hitting .382/.497/.926 (295 wRC+) with 15 doubles and 19 home runs. It is one of the greatest 39-game stretches we will ever see. The last player with 35 extra-base hits (Judge also has a triple during his stretch) in a 39-game span was Rafael Devers. He had 23 doubles, a triple, and 11 homers from July 12th to Aug. 23rd in 2019.

The Yankees have 91 games remaining. If Judge continues on his “since May 1st” pace through the end of the season, he’ll add another 35 doubles and 44 homers to his totals. The slash line stays the slash line: .382/.497/.926 (295 wRC+) while averaging 4.33 plate appearances per game. Add that to his current numbers and it extrapolates out to:

• .346/.467/.821 (~257 wRC+)

• 56 doubles

• 69 home runs (nice)

The only comp for the slash line is Barry Bonds circa 2001-04: .349/.559/.809 (232 wRC+). The 56 doubles would be a lot but not anything historic (Freddie Freeman had 59 doubles just last year), though obviously the 69 homers are a ton. Would be the third most in a single-season, which is pretty nuts from a “Judge has been out of his mind these last few weeks and continuing at this pace would still have him only third on the single-season home run list” perspective.

Assuming Judge does not hit another triple this season (he has one triple in 2024 after having one triple from 2018-23), the 126 extra-base hits would be bonkers and a new all-time record. The current record is 119 extra-base hits by Babe Ruth in 1921 (44 doubles, 16 triples, 59 homers). Baseball hasn’t had a player with 100 extra-base hits since Bonds (107), Sammy Sosa (103), and Luis Gonzalez (100) all did it in 2001. Judge is on pace for 107 extra-base hits. A 100 extra-base hits chase would be very nerdy but also fun.

Several asked: How do we square Anthony Volpe’s performance with his Statcast numbers?

This is a difficult one to answer and I don’t know that I can answer it. Volpe is hitting .272/.331/.417 (116 wRC+) this season, which is obviously very good, though his under-the-hood numbers are pretty crummy. Here are the Statcast sliders for Volpe’s bat:

Volpe falls into the Luis Arraez bucket where his bat speed and contact quality isn’t very good, but he does rack up hits (though not at the same rate as Arraez, obviously). Did you know that Volpe walked only nine times during his 34-game on-base streak, and five of the nine came in the first five games? I guess hitting in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge will do that. No one wants to walk Volpe. Point is, Volpe gets hits. The on-base streak was built on ‘em.

Two things to consider. First, Volpe putting more balls in play this season, and hitters who put a lot of balls in play tend to have lower average exit velocities. Volpe’s chase rate is in the same range as last year (27.6% to 28.6%), but his out-of-zone contact rate is way up (49.7% to 61.5%), and when you make contact on pitches out of the zone, it’s weak contact, and it drags down your average exit velocity. Those pitches outside the zone are hard to drive.

Volpe’s max (108.7 mph to 108.2 mph) and 90th percentile (103.1 mph last year to 102.4 mph) exit velocities are down slightly from last season but more or less in the same range, and those numbers are more important than average exit velocity. They have more predictive value. Volpe’s average exit velocity is down because he’s putting more pitches out of the zone in play. His top end contact is still quite good though.

And second, Volpe is not pulling the ball nearly as much as last season. Last year he pulled the ball 45.6% of the time, which was in line with his minor league track record. This year’s Volpe has a 28.3% pull rate, sixth lowest among 150 qualified hitters. He’s a completely different hitter, spray chart-wise. Here’s Volpe’s breakdown by batted ball direction:

2023 pull (45.6%): .290 AVG and .556 SLG vs. .347 xAVG and .589 xSLG
2024 pull (28.3%): .368 AVG and .667 SLG vs. .285 xAVG and .404 xSLG
MLB RHB pull (40.0%): .360 AVG and .665 SLG vs. 357 xAVG and .587 xSLG

2023 center (32.4%): .283 AVG and .416 SLG vs. .350 xAVG and .576 xSLG
2024 center (40.8%): .298 AVG and .319 SLG vs. .317 xAVG and .438 xSLG
MLB RHB center (35.5%): .303 AVG and .420 SLG vs. .345 xAVG and .573 xSLG

2023 oppo (22.0%): .353 AVG and .729 SLG vs. .300 xAVG and .536 xSLG
2024 oppo (30.9%): .435 AVG and .768 SLG vs. .374 xAVG and .560 xSLG
MLB RHB oppo (24.5%): .286 AVG and .417 SLG vs. .262 xAVG and .417 xSLG

Looking at the league-wide numbers, it’s kinda neat how each field has its own personality. Pull the ball and you’ll outperform your xSLG (this is the Rays way). Stay in the middle of the field and you’re going to mute your production (because teams typically have their best defenders at second base, shortstop, and center field? I dunno). Go to the opposite field and you’ll outperform your expected AVG.

Volpe is wearing out the opposite field this season and is outperforming his expected AVG, which is based on exit velocity and launch angle, accordingly. The SLG > xSLG thing has to do with his speed as much as the short porch. Volpe has seven triples already, five on balls to right field, and those are doubles for most hitters. He’s boosted his oppo SLG with his legs moreso than with homers.

Like I said earlier, this is a difficult question to answer. Volpe does put a lot of pitches that are outside the zone in play, which drags down his average exit velocity. His max and 90th percentile exit velocities are solid though. Also, Volpe is pulling the ball less and using the opposite field more, and hitters who visit the opposite field frequently tend to outperform what Statcast says they should be doing.

James asks: You wrote Monday that finding a 3rd baseman should be a strong consideration for the Yankees. While Eugenio Suarez is cratering in Arizona, could a change of scenery help get him closer to his Mariner numbers? Also do you agree he wouldn't be very expensive for the Yankees to acquire - prospect wise?

Bob Nightengale recently reported the Diamondbacks are “willing to listen to offers” for Suárez, which is perhaps putting it nicely. Suárez, 33 next month, is hitting .197/.263/.312 (65 wRC+) with a 29.0 K% and only five home runs this season. His whole thing is power – Suárez was tied for the fifth most homers in baseball from 2017-23 – but that’s dried up. The strikeouts remain though, and his glove is slipping.

The D-Backs have begun taking playing time away from Suárez and the under-the-hood numbers paint a grim picture. Suárez is not hitting the ball nearly as hard as even last season. The decline in his contact quality is among the largest in baseball (maybe he's hurt?). Two-hundred-and-twenty players batted at least 400 times in 2023 and 250 times in 2024. Here are the declines in Suárez’s contact quality:

• Exit velocity: -2.9 mph (90.3 mph to 87.4 mph) (4th largest decline)

• Barrel rate: -5.3% (12.7% to 7.4%) (7th largest decline)

• Hard-hit rate: -9.3% (43.0% to 33.7%) (2nd largest decline)

A year ago Suárez hit .232/.323/.391 (102 wRC+) with 22 homers, then the Mariners salary dumped him on Arizona. Smart move, that was. Suárez slashed .223/.315/.425 (106 wRC+) from 2021-23, so he hasn’t been that great lately, and slipping from that to what he’s doing in 2024 isn’t the most shocking thing in the world given his age. All the age-related decline indicators are there: more chases, less power, less range.

Suárez is owed the remainder of his $11M salary this season plus a $2M buyout of his $15M club option for 2025. Top D-Backs prospect Jordan Lawlar returned this week from a Spring Training thumb injury. Once he gets back up to speed in Triple-A, Arizona can put him at third with Geraldo Perdomo at short (or vice versa), and cut bait with Suárez. Even average production at third base would be a big upgrade for a team in the NL Wild Card mix (or, ahem, a team in the AL East race).

I bet you could get Suárez for a song right now. Take on the money, give the D-Backs a Grade-C prospect, and he’s yours. It might not even take that much. There are enough red flags here (age, power in decline, more chases, etc.) that I say stay away. If Arizona releases Suárez and the Yankees bring him in for a look at the league minimum, fine, but as the solution at third base, I say pass. Find someone better.

Michael asks: I know it’s way too early and injuries/performance will likely sort this out, but assuming all 6 starters are healthy come the playoffs (Cole, Rodon, Cortes, Stroman, Gil, Schmidt), who do you think sticks in the rotation and who goes to the bullpen?  I assume they’d go with a 4-man rotation, leaving two guys in the pen. 

I am certain the Yankees want to go Gerrit Cole in Game 1, Carlos Rodón in Game 2, and Marcus Stroman in Game 3. Cole is Cole and Rodón’s had a great year despite the continued decline in fastball whiffs. Stroman as the No. 3 is a bit more iffy only because Luis Gil has been so good. I mean, if the postseason started today, wouldn’t you want Gil on the mound over Stroman? I would. Remember, the Game 3 starter also lines up to start Game 7. The Game 4 starter only gets one start in a best-of-seven.

Right now I think it’s Cole, Rodón, and Stroman in Games 1-3 with Gil in Game 4. Nestor Cortes has been very effective against lefties this year (.260 wOBA with 26.8 K% going into Thursday’s start), so maybe he becomes the high leverage left-on-left matchup guy if Caleb Ferguson and Victor González don’t settle into the Circle of Trust™. Clarke Schmidt has bullpen experience, including in the postseason. That’s a natural fit. Perhaps he’s the bat-missing righty the Yankees need. Needless to say, this is all hypothetical. The postseason is a long way away and who we want on the mound in what game will change many times between now and then.

Dan asks: So on Saturday night's game, right before Stone was taken out, the camera had a shot of the Dodger dugout and there was an Ipad that the Dodger coaches were looking at that clearly had a shot of the pitcher and catcher from the outfield camera. I was under the impression that it was illegal. Can you clarify what are the rules for such devices in the dugout during the game?

There have been iPads in the dugout since 2016. After the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, MLB took control of the iPads and has run the program since 2021. Every at-bat is uploaded after it is completed (the video is edited to remove the catcher’s signs if they’re not using PitchCom) and the iPads are not connected to any outside networks. It provides access to MLB’s uploads and that’s it. Players can watch their at-bats/pitches from any available television broadcast plus the non-public cameras MLB has set up around the league. The Yankees use the iPads all the time and YES isn’t shy about showing them. Every team has access to the same number of iPads and the same video. I’m in favor of banning iPads and outfielder positioning cards and all that. Do as much homework as you want between games, but you can’t use your textbook during the test. This will never happen, of course. The players won’t go for it.

Steve asks: As an out of market Yankee fan with a toddler I sadly do not get a chance to catch a lot of games anymore. However, I do have the MLB radio app through SiriusXM and occasionally I get a chance to listen to the radio broadcast. LIke many others who grew up with Sterling I deeply miss his calls. Has there been any talk in the media or within the organization on what the plan is to replace him? I believe you had a blurb in one of these posts about a national search but was curious if you had any more inside info.

I have no new information. John Sterling recently said he does not want to be involved in the search for his replacement, which tells us no replacement has been picked. Rickie Ricardo did the Dodgers series and he’s so good. I think he would be the best choice to replace Sterling, but he already handles the Spanish broadcast. He might not be an option. Ryan Ruocco is ESPN’s No. 2 for the NBA and is the voice of women’s basketball. Yankees radio is a step down for him at this point. Emmanuel Berbari, Brendan Burke, and Justin Shackil are the other Sterling fill-ins who could be the long-term replacement. Burke is the television voice of the Islanders though, and the MLB and NHL seasons overlap a bit. Sorry, but I don't have an update for you. No idea who will take over the radio booth long-term.

Paul asks: It feels like at least half of the yankees' Saturday games have been night games. What's the deal with that? And looking forward, I only see 2 more the rest of the season, if I counted correctly. Scheduling fluke? Conspiracy? 

Saturdays have been rough this season. The Yankees have played 12 Saturday games, including two as part of a doubleheader in Cleveland, though there was a night game on the original schedule that day anyway. Of the 11 originally scheduled Saturday games the Yankees have played this year, seven had a 6pm ET start time or later. We can drop those seven games into three buckets:

• National broadcast: Astros, Dodgers

• First Saturday home game of 2024: Blue Jays

• Road game the other team wanted to sell out: Brewers, Giants, Guardians, Padres

Not a conspiracy, not a fluke, just money. The Yankees don’t visit Milwaukee, San Diego, or San Francisco often and those teams wanted to sell out as many games that series as possible. Same when the Yankees went to Cleveland, and the Yankees when they played their first home Saturday game of the new season.

The Yankees have 16 Saturday games remaining and only four are night games, thankfully: June 15th at Red Sox, June 22nd vs. Braves, July 27th at Red Sox, Sept. 21st at Athletics. Yes, this weekend and next weekend are Saturday night games. Sigh. At least we’ll be done with the majority of these soon. Baseball in the afternoon and then a free Saturday night is what the baseball gods intended.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)