May 24th, 2024: Schmidt, Andrews, Cole, Volpe, Kahnle, Mailbag

I’m not sure when exactly it happened, but at some point during the homestand Aaron Judge moved into the franchise’s top 24 in WAR. He bumped Jorge Posada out. Open up the Yankees’ franchise page at Baseball Reference and there’s Judge among Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Derek Jeter, and all the other all-time great Yankees:

Judge entered Thursday’s game with +44.0 WAR and he could pass Brett Gardner (+44.3 WAR), Graig Nettles (+44.4 WAR), Robinson Canó (+44.4 WAR), Earle Combs (+45.1 WAR), Thurman Munson (+46.1 WAR), Tony Lazzeri (+46.3 WAR), Roy White (+46.8 WAR), and Ron Guidry (+47.8 WAR) before the end of the season. That would put him in 15th place on the franchise’s all-time list behind Bernie Williams (+49.6 WAR). Of course, WAR can go down, though I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Judge putting up negative WAR seasons anytime soon (or at least I hope we won’t). How how does Judge finish in that grid? Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Shoutout to the Cardinals. They swept the Orioles this week, so even though the Yankees dropped two of the first three to the Mariners, they picked up a game in the standings. It was the first time Baltimore got swept in a regular season series since the Tigers got them from May 13-15, 2022. That was the week before Adley Rutschman got called up (the O’s got swept in the ALDS last year, of course). The Yankees rebounded to split the four games with Seattle and they sit atop the AL East heading into Memorial Day weekend. It’s not like the Orioles are underperforming either. What a great start to the season. Better than I could’ve possibly hoped after Gerrit Cole got hurt. Here now are a few thoughts on the Mariners series.

Tippin’ Schmidt

Getting smacked around for four days by utility man Dylan Moore, a career .208/.315/.390 (100 wRC+) hitter entering 2024, was annoying. Moore went 5-for-12 (.417) with a double and two home runs during the four-game series. Both homers came against Clarke Schmidt on Tuesday night. The first was a bomb to left, the second a short porch job to right. They all count the same.

“I love to play,” Moore told Ryan Divish after his two-homer effort. “And I love to hit. If you hit, you play.”

Schmidt ran a lot of long counts and had his worst start in a while Tuesday night, allowing two runs (both on Moore’s first homer) in five innings. He needed 100 pitches. The home run wasn’t a terrible pitch either. Schmidt did leave a cutter up, but it was off the plate away, and Moore was still able to barrel it up. It’s not like Schmidt left a cement mixer in the middle of the zone.

Moore timed up that pitch like he knew it was coming, and maybe he did? After the game Schmidt said he went back and watched the video, and thinks he was tipping his pitches. More accurately, he thinks he was giving away the pitch to runner at second base, Josh Rojas, who then relayed them to Moore at the plate. Rojas was nice enough to confirm it Wednesday. The Mariners had Schmidt’s pitches.

“I mean, you can see in the videos he was clearly tipping,” Rojas told Daniel Kremer. “... It wasn't a thing where we were tipping every pitch. I can tell you that. D-Mo had a great at-bat and he hit a great pitch. And I guess I could say, honestly, we weren't tipping every pitch, but he was giving some stuff away.”

“Tipping is a part of this game and it’s always in the back of our heads. It’s something that we’re well aware of. I think (Rojas) was definitely probably relaying some signs there at second. Obviously it paid off for them,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch. “... 100% (fair game). If I’m giving away the pitches, then it’s a credit to them to be able to find it. Especially a credit to Moore for being able to capitalize on a mistake. So it’s definitely part of the game.”

Notice anything in the GIF above? Rojas turns his head quickly to the left right before Schmidt delivers the pitch. I thought that was the tell and how he relayed the pitch to Moore. I went back and watched the at-bat though, and I didn’t notice a pattern:

• 0-0 pitch: Sweeper taken for a called strike (Rojas doesn’t look left)

• 0-1 pitch: Cutter off the plate for a ball (Rojas kinda looks left)

• 1-1 pitch: Cutter on the corner for a called strike (Rojas doesn’t look left)

• 1-2 pitch: Curve down for a ball (Rojas doesn’t look left)

• 2-2 pitch: Sinker off the plate for a ball (Rojas doesn’t look left)

• 3-2 pitch: Sweeper fouled away (Rojas looks left)

• 3-2 pitch: Cutter hit out of the park (Rojas looks left)

Yeah, I dunno. Rojas had Schmidt’s pitches and was relaying them to Moore at the plate. He said as much. I just don’t think he was relaying them with his head. How Rojas relayed the pitch to Moore isn’t important anyway. What is important is Schmidt was tipping his pitches. I’m not good at finding this stuff, but it looks to me like Rojas could see right into Schmidt’s glove and pick up his grip:

It’s kinda dopey but this stuff happens more often than you think. Remember when the Blue Jays thought the Yankees and Aaron Judge were stealing signs last season? It turned out the pitcher, Jay Jackson, was positioning his glove in such a way that first base coach Travis Chapman could see his grip, and Chapman then relayed the pitch to Judge at the plate. I think that’s what happened with Schmidt and Rojas.

Only twice did the Mariners have a runner at second base against Schmidt: Rojas for Moore’s homer, and Mitch Garver for Julio Rodríguez’s at-bat in the fifth. Schmidt got ahead in the count 0-2, then Julio took two pretty nasty pitches just off the plate to work the count back full before grounding out (video). Those were some great takes and perhaps Rodríguez, like Moore, knew what was coming. Who knows?

As long as the Mariners didn’t hack PitchCom and steal signs that way, this is all fair game, and Schmidt has to clean it up and be better. I mean, five innings and two runs is pretty good for a guy who was giving away pitches, no? Get to work, Clarke. “It’ll be fixed by my next start,” Schmidt told Dan Martin. 

Clayton Andrews? Clayton Andrews???

We had our first “what is Aaron Boone doing?” moment of the season Tuesday night. The Yankees were down 4-0, then Gleyber Torres hit a three-run home run (video) to get them back in the game and bring the crowd back to life. Bryan Woo was outstanding – that kid has an A+ fastball between his velocity and low release point – and the Yankees capitalized as soon as he left the game.

Rather than go to one of his leverage relievers to keep the game close, Boone went to Andrews, who was called up earlier in the week when Ian Hamilton went on the COVID list. Luke Raley hit Andrews’ first pitch as a Yankee into the short porch and took the wind out of everyone’s sails. Yankee Stadium went from electric to silent. After the game, Boone came as close to admitting he screwed up as he ever will.

“The case there is to bring in (Caleb Ferguson) there, which in hindsight, I probably should have done,” Boone told Hoch.

Andrews was warming up to come in when it was 4-0, which, fine. It’s okay to use him then. And to be fair to Boone, Andrews has been really good against lefties in Triple-A: .189/.303/.322 with a 39.4% strikeout rate and a 62.0% ground ball rate the last two years. The calculus has to change once the Yankees pull to within a run though. Use your go-to guys against the middle of the lineup and give the offense a chance.

And the thing is, Ferguson and Nick Burdi wound up pitching anyway, only later in the game after Seattle had tacked on insurance runs. Instead of facing 3-4-5 with a one-run deficit in the eighth, Ferguson faced 1-2-3 with a three-run deficit in the ninth. The Yankees got back into the game and then the last guy in the bullpen, essentially the ninth man in an eight-man bullpen, let the Mariners pull away. Groan.

The Yankees didn’t score again after Gleyber’s homer and I don’t blame Andrews or Boone for the loss, but it felt like the Yankees got a little greedy there. Maybe even lazy. Andrews was warmed up, and rather than shift gears after Torres went deep, Boone & Co. tried to steal a few outs with a pitcher they knew they were sending down after the game (to make room for Tommy Kahnle), and it backfired. The manager is charged with putting the team in the best position to win and Boone didn’t in that situation.

The larger issue is the middle of the bullpen. Kahnle is back now and he’ll help, but Dennis Santana looks Dennis Santana-y rather than the next Matt Blake revelation, plus Burdi, Ferguson, and Hamilton have been spotty too. It’s been a tale of two bullpens through 52 games:

• Clay Holmes + Luke Weaver: 2.06 ERA (2.54 FIP) and +2.04 WPA in 52.1 IP

• The rest of the bullpen: 3.28 ERA (4.34 FIP) and +1.09 WPA in 118 IP

Monday’s meltdown aside, Holmes has been awesome. Kahnle should give Boone a third trusted leverage option. Jonathan Loáisiga’s done for the season though, Lou Trivino just had a setback, and the last 14 months or so tell us not to count on Scott Effross. If he comes back, great, but don't plan on him being the bullpen savior. Even if he’s healthy, what will he look like after that long layoff?

Ron Marinaccio pitched well when he was up earlier this year and I think he’s one of the eight best relievers in the organization, so get him back up here (his 15 days in the minors are up Sunday). That would mean optioning Burdi or Hamilton, or DFAing the out-of-options Santana. So be it. The middle of the bullpen has to be addressed and Marinaccio should get another chance. The Andrews decision was bad and the last three games were a reminder the non-Holmes/Weaver(/Kahnle) portion of the bullpen can be shaky.

On the two-strike approach

The pitchers, not the hitters. The eye test says the Yankees waste a lot of pitches in two-strike counts, presumably in an effort to get chases and swings and misses, though it also leads to a lot of extended at-bats and hitters getting back in the count. The numbers say the eye test isn’t lying. No team throws the ball in the zone less with two strikes. The numbers in two-strike counts:

Zone Rate
30. Yankees: 40.5%
29. Mets: 41.1%
28. Blue Jays: 41.2%
…
1. Pirates: 46.4%
(MLB average: 43.1%)

Noncompetitive Pitch Rate
30. Yankees: 25.0%
29. Cardinals: 24.2%
28. Mets: 23.6%
…
1. Nationals: 18.0%
(MLB average: 21.2%)

Noncompetitive pitches are pitches that are at least 18 inches from the center of the strike zone. They’re easy takes. Pitches that are, well, not competitive. And no team throws more of them with two strikes than the Yankees. They’re not throwing noncompetitive pitches intentionally. They’re pitching off the plate though, more than every other team, and when you do that you sometimes miss far outside. That’s better than missing over the plate, I suppose. The Yankees do prioritize limiting mistakes and damage.

It must note the Yankees are holding opponents to a .153/.242/.248 line in two-strike counts, a bit better than the .167/.246/.258 league average, so their approach is working. The results aren’t the issue. It’s the at-bats that get extended and elevate pitch counts and shorten outings. The 0-2 and 1-2 counts that turn into 2-2 and 3-2 counts. I’m not data savvy enough to check how often the Yankees turn 0-2 into 3-2, but this would seem to support the observation:

Walk rate after 0-2 count
30. Mets: 5.1%
29. Yankees: 4.8%
28. Rangers: 4.6%
…
1. Guardians: 1.5%
(MLB average: 3.3%)

Cal Raleigh hit a three-run homer Wednesday and the homer was preceded by Michael Tonkin walking Garver after getting ahead in the count 0-2. He got two quick strikes, then it was three sliders trying to get him to chase, then a 3-2 sinker that missed. That sequence felt annoyingly familiar because it is. The Yankees throw more pitches out of the zone with two strikes than any team in the league.

The Mariners have an excellent pitching staff and the difference in approaches was noticeable this week. The Yankees got to two strikes, then nibbled. The Mariners got to two strikes and kept pounding away. Both approaches can work! And are working given how well the two teams have pitched this year. But Schmidt and Nestor Cortes were nearing 100 pitches in the fifth inning while Woo and Logan Gilbert had barely broken a sweat. 

The pitching has been so good this season that it feels kinda dumb to complain about anything, though this does seem like something the Yankees might be able to improve. Tighten things up a bit with two strikes, put hitters away sooner, preserve the pitch count. It helps everyone. The guy on the mound, the guys in the bullpen, the defense, etc. The Yankees are nibblers and seeing how the entire staff does it, it’s intentional.

Injury updates

Gerrit Cole (elbow) faced hitters for the first time Tuesday (video) and all went well. It was a light session (22 pitches) and Cole felt good Wednesday, so he’ll face hitters again this weekend. “I hit 96 a couple of times and Matt (Blake) yelled at me. I had to throw it like 90 a few times to even it back out,” Cole told Mark Sanchez about Tuesday’s session. Nothing is set in stone as far as how many live BPs he’ll throw or when he’ll start a rehab assignment, but Cole is facing hitters, and that’s a big step … DJ LeMahieu (foot) is 3-for-6 with three walks and a strikeout through three rehab games. The plan is to play a few games with Triple-A Scranton this weekend, rest Monday, then join the Yankees for Tuesday’s series opener with the Angels. Jahmai Jones is likely to be the corresponding move, though I do wonder if an Oswaldo Cabrera demotion is on the table … Jose Trevino exited Thursday’s game with an illness but is traveling with the Yankees to the West Coast. That’s at least a little worrisome after Ian Hamilton went on the COVID list earlier this week. The last thing the Yankees need is an illness spreading through the clubhouse, COVID or otherwise … Speaking of Hamilton, he is expected to return sometime this weekend. That’ll likely be the end of the Tonkin era … Scott Effross (elbow, back) is getting closer to a rehab assignment, though it’s still a matter of weeks, not days. At least he's moving in the right direction … Jasson Domínguez (elbow) moved his rehab assignment up to Double-A Somerset earlier this week and is 5-for-21 with a double, five walks, and seven strikeouts through six rehab games. He has not yet played the field. That could happen sometime next week, though that is only my speculation … And finally, Clayton Beeter was placed on Scranton’s 7-day injured list with shoulder discomfort earlier this week, Boone told Gary Phillips. His velocity was down the last few times out. In his last start, Beeter topped out at 94.7 mph, which is what his fastball averaged in Spring Training. Hopefully this is a minor issue and a short absence. Either way, the Yankees are down a piece of pitching depth.

Miscellany

Anthony Volpe’s hitting streak is up to 16 games and his on-base streak is up to 20 games. It’s the longest hitting streak by a Yankee since Didi Gregorius had a 17-gamer in 2017, and it’s the longest on-base streak by a Yankee other than Aaron Judge since Gleyber Torres had a 20-gamer in Sept. 2022 (Judge had a 45-gamer last season). Would you believe the last Yankee other than Judge with an on-base streak longer than 20 games was Josh Donaldson? He had a 24-game on-base streak in April 2022. Huh. Anyway, Volpe is up to .275/.348/.425 (125 wRC+). The kid has arrived … Giancarlo Stanton’s homer Thursday came on a 95.8 mph fastball (video). It is by far the fastest pitch he’s hit out of the park this year – the previous high was 93.7 mph – and the fastest since he turned around a 97.0 mph heater last Aug. 24th (video). Stanton has six home runs in his last 14 games. Nothing quite like it when Giancarlo gets hot … The Mariners lead baseball with 4.07 pitches per plate appearance and they really made Nestor Cortes work Wednesday. His pitches by inning: 27, 20, 27, 11, 12. Nestor picked up a few key strikeouts to avoid damage and he settled down enough to get through five scoreless innings. Cortes has a 3.29 ERA (3.33 FIP) and, going into Thursday, his 65.2 innings were third most in baseball. Only Tyler Glasnow (67) and Ranger Suárez (66) have thrown more innings, and Glasnow has made one more start than Nestor because of the Seoul Series … Ho hum, one hit in 6.1 scoreless innings for Luis Gil on Thursday. Two walks, eight strikeouts. Gil’s last five starts: 30.2 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 10 BB, 35 K. Within those five starts he beat Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, and Justin Verlander (and Tyler Alexander and Brad Keller). When you put a young kid in the rotation, you understand there will be ups and downs, but right now it’s all ups for Gil. He’s been tremendous. Is it wrong to say Cole’s injury was a blessing in disguise? (Yes, that's bad juju) … Anthony Rizzo had two doubles and a homer in the series finale in Milwaukee. He has one double and two homers in 21 games since. He’s hitting .254/.319/.389 (107 wRC+) overall. Hopefully Rizzo rediscovers his power stroke soon … Welcome back, Tommy Kahnle. Tommy Tightpants had a 1-2-3 inning in his season debut Wednesday and he’s retired all 18 batters he’s faced in 2024, rehab assignment included. Boone said the Yankees aren’t going to use Kahnle back-to-back days yet, but it’ll happen soon enough. Glad to have Kahnle back … And finally, Todd Frazier is not polished in the broadcast booth (understandably) but I enjoyed him this week. Good banter with Michael Kay. It feels like the YES rotation is on overdrive this year, doesn’t it? They aren’t even sticking with one booth for a homestand. The booth changes almost by the series. It’s a bit much.

Up Next

A three-city, nine-game, 10-day West Coast trip that takes the Yankees from San Diego to Anaheim to San Francisco. The Yankees have this trip and then a Seattle-Oakland trip in September. Here are this weekend’s pitching matchups and start times (blah, a West Coast night game on a Saturday):

• Friday at Padres: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Yu Darvish (9:40pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at Padres: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Dylan Cease (9:40pm ET on YES)

• Sunday at Padres: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (4pm ET on YES)

• Monday: Memorial Day off-day for some reason

This weekend will be the Yankees’ first trip to Petco Park since the 2020 pandemic postseason. It’ll be their first time playing the Padres at Petco Park since a three-game series in July 2016. That series is most memorable for Mark Teixeira’s 400th home run (video). Chad Green started the first game of the series and not as an opener. That was back when he was still a starter, before he broke out as a reliever. Six innings of one-run ball!

Last weekend Darvish became the third pitcher to win 200 games between MLB and NPB, joining Hideo Nomo (201) and old pal Hiroki Kuroda (203). Masahiro Tanaka is sitting on 197 combined wins and will join that group soon. Darvish is also working on a career best 25-inning scoreless streak. He’s been excellent this season. So too has Cease. We won’t see knuckleballer Matt Waldron this weekend, thankfully. I can’t say I'm eager to hear “the knuckleballer messed up their swings!” takes for a week.

The Yankees also will not see Mike King this weekend. He started Wednesday night. It’s probably for the best. I don’t want to sit through a potential Mike King revenge game, plus I like the guy, and would rather watch the Yankees tee off against someone else. Jhony Brito is in San Diego’s bullpen, Kyle Higashioka is Luis Campusano’s backup, and Randy Vásquez is in Triple-A. Their numbers:

• RHP Jhony Brito: 3.96 ERA (3.73 FIP) in 25 IP

• C Kyle Higashioka: .140/.140/.256 (10 wRC+) in 43 PA

• RHP Mike King: 4.28 ERA (4.87 FIP) in 61 IP

• RHP Randy Vásquez: 5.82 ERA (5.02 FIP) in 21.2 IP in MLB

Drew Thorpe, the other guy the Yankees sent to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, has a 1.50 ERA (2.65 FIP) with 24.3% strikeout rate in 42 innings for the White Sox’s Double-A affiliate. San Diego sent him to the ChiSox in the Cease trade. I have no idea how Padres fans feel about Soto and the trade. Maybe they’ll boo him this weekend, maybe they’ll cheer. I dunno. All I know is I’m glad the Yankees have him.

2. 2024 draft prospect: LSU 3B Tommy White. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

The man they call Tommy Tanks is one of the greatest power hitters in college baseball history. He set the freshman record with 27 homers at North Carolina State in 2022, and earlier this week White slugged his 75th career home run (video). That is tied for eighth most all-time and the most for anyone this century. White could climb as high as fourth on the NCAA’s all-time home run list by the end of this season.

White, 21, began his college career at NC State, then transferred to LSU last season and helped the Tigers win the College World Series. He’s a career .361/.425/.727 hitter with a 14.7% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate, though if you remove intentional walks, it drops down to a 5.1% career walk rate. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him: 

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 21

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 17

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 22

• MLB Pipeline: No. 16

With all due respect, public draft rankings are not precise enough to say White won’t be available for the Yankees and the No. 26 just because he’s ranked higher than that. The gap between No. 16 and No. 26 is not that big, especially in this draft class. Anyway, here are some more Tommy Tanks and here is a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

White is physical with huge raw power and electric hand speed that allows him to homer to all fields. What makes him particularly dangerous to opposing college pitchers are his standout bat-to-ball skills. He has an overall 75% contact rate as a college hitter, but an 85% in-zone contact rate and connects against all pitch types equally well. He loves to swing the bat and will expand the strike zone with an aggressive chase rate, which is perhaps the lone offensive question mark scouts have when projecting him in pro ball. White is a fine enough college third baseman but scouts expect him to make the shift over the diamond to first base at the next level, which will place more strain on his hitting chops.

White has put up 110 mph exit velocities on the regular throughout his career. The power is legit and he pairs it with strong contact rates, but the plate discipline is a red flag, and the right/right profile at first base is rough. If White doesn’t stick at third base and/or chase less, he has major C.J. Cron risk. Good player, one who will stay employed through his 20s, but not someone who will be the centerpiece of a lineup.

The Yankees are into exit velocity and they’ve put more of a premium on contact rates in recent years, and hey, if White does stay at third base and reign in his chase rate a bit, he’s got a chance to be a devastating middle of the order presence. There’s C.J. Cron risk but also Austin Riley upside. The Yankees did the “we think he can play the position even though nobody else does” thing with Austin Wells at catcher. Maybe they will with White at third?

It’s a weak draft class and college hitters who perform are always popular targets, so my hunch is Tommy Tanks will not make it to the Yankees at No. 26 even with the concerns about his chase rate and position. Top of the scale power with a track record like this usually doesn’t make it to the back of the first round. And, if White is there at No. 26, I’m not sure the Yankees would pounce. They tend to go for up-the-middle athletes with broader skill sets (Spencer Jones has a ton of power too, and he has more secondary value than White with his speed, defense, etc.).

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Hal Steinbrenner never passes up an opportunity to be a wet blanket. Earlier this week he told Dan Martin the team’s current payroll level is “simply not sustainable.” He added that doesn’t rule out re-signing Juan Soto, but clearly, he’s angling to lower payroll if not get back under the luxury tax threshold. Hal complaining about payroll and luxury tax is nothing new. Why does he have to do it now though? The Yankees are great, Soto rules, fans are excited. Things are going so well! Is this really the time to talk about a “sustainable” payroll, wherever that means? Just say “Soto has been everything we hoped and we’re excited for the rest of the season” and be done with it. Is that so hard? Owners are better when they are neither seen nor heard, especially this one.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: What is your gut saying about this current Yankees team in terms of winning the World Series. I understand it’s very early and they have flaws but answering as a fan first, do you think they have what it takes to win it all? 

We’re nearly two months into the season and watching games around the league has led me to the conclusion there are five great teams (Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, Phillies, Yankees), five terrible teams (Angels, Athletics, Marlins, Rockies, White Sox), and then 20 teams in the mushy middle. Seven of those 20 teams will win 84-87 games and worm their way into the postseason because the math says it must happen. Feels like there are very few truly great teams and a whole lotta meh teams these days.

To answer the question, yes, I absolutely believe the Yankees can win the World Series this year. They’re not perfect, but no team is. I feel good about the rotation – Gerrit Cole hasn’t thrown a pitch yet! – and that depth is something the Yankees might be able to turn into bullpen weapons in October thanks to all those built-in off-days. Can’t you see Luis Gil has a 2-3 inning dominator out of the bullpen later this year? The lineup is so much deeper than in years past and there’s diversity now. Contact, power, etc. It’s not one-dimensional.

Given what we know about the Yankees and the rest of the league, yes, I absolutely believe they are on the short list of World Series contenders. I think they can beat any team if given the chance. Doesn’t mean they will, but some of the critical roster weaknesses that existed in the past (too right-handed, etc.) aren’t there now, or at least aren’t as pronounced. It’s impossible to predict a short series, especially one five months into the future. Right now, on May 24th, I believe yes, this team can win a championship.

John asks: How does this team compare to the start from 2022? Record wise seems similar, but curious how they compare under the hood. Any reason that we should be more confident in this start being more sustainable than 22 was?

The 2022 Yankees do a good job keeping us grounded, eh? They’re a reminder it is a long season and the things that drive your success in April and May won’t necessarily be there in September and October. I think we all know that, but the way things played out in 2022 really drove home the point. We don’t have to look back far to see the last time a dream start to the season didn’t last.

Similar to the 2024 Yankees, the 2022 Yankees got off to such a great start largely because their pitching was so good, particularly the rotation. It felt like the Yankees were getting 6-7 innings and two runs from their starter every night. That didn’t last and the rotation began to stumble in the middle of June. The Yankees started 49-16 in 2022 and went 50-47 the rest of the way. Here’s the rotation:

The personnel did change a bit. Luis Severino was so great to start the year, then he got hurt and Domingo Germán stepped in. The Yankees effectively swapped Jordan Montgomery for Frankie Montas at the trade deadline. The mainstays (Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jameson Taillon) also performed worse as the season went on. I mean, it’s right there in the table. The home run rate jumped nearly 50%.

The offense did not slip as much as the rotation – 119 wRC+ and 5.09 runs per game during the 49-16 start and 114 wRC+ and 4.91 runs per game thereafter – though Aaron Judge did all the heavy lifting later in the season. The Yankees had a 15.5-game division lead whittled down to 3.5 games at one point and Judge basically dragged them to the AL East title. Yankees other than Judge hit .218/.291/.360 after the All-Star break in 2022. He was a one-man army.

Similar to the 2022 Yankees, the 2024 Yankees are winning in large part because their rotation has been excellent, including pitching to a 0.95 HR/9. That’s ninth lowest in baseball despite playing home games in homer happy Yankee Stadium. Once the weather warms up, the ball will fly out of the park more often. It’s inevitable. The key will be keeping the homers to a manageable level (i.e. not 1.40 HR/9).

I think there are two key differences between the 2022 and 2024 Yankees. One, the 2024 team has Cole on the way. It’s possible he won’t be the same pitcher after his elbow injury! We’re not gonna know until he gets back into games, but it’s not a ligament or structural injury, which lowers the risk some. The rotation has been as good as it's been without the reigning Cy Young winner throwing a pitch.

And two, the offense is not being elevated by outlier performances. It wasn’t just Judge having a career year. It was Matt Carpenter hitting like Barry Bonds for two months (not hyperbole!). No one expected much from Jose Trevino and then he hit enough to go to the All-Star Game. Even Tim Locastro showed up from time to time and socked dingers. Other than Judge, none of it lasted all season.

Is anyone on the 2024 Yankees having an outlier year? Trevino. And that’s it? Judge and Juan Soto are not doing anything that is out of line with the rest of their careers. Alex Verdugo has been better than I expected, but we’re talking about a guy with a career 106 wRC+ having a 113 wRC+. Nothing crazy there, especially since he’s 28 and in his prime. Anthony Volpe has been great and a former top prospect raising his game in Year 2 isn’t unheard of it. That’s how it’s supposed to work.

If anything, the 2024 Yankees have more underperformers (Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, third base, etc.) on offense than overperformers. It’s much easier to look at this offense and say “this guy and that guy will be better moving forward” than it is to say “that guy won’t keep it up.” Trevino and maybe Giancarlo Stanton are the only major regression candidates. The others crashing later this season would be a surprise.

Injuries threaten to derail any promising season. In terms of on-field performance, I don’t have the same concerns about the 2024 offense that I did in 2022 because it’s more balanced and younger, and there isn’t anything wildly out of the ordinary happening. The rotation is probably performing over its head a bit. I’m sure there will be a return to Earth at some point, and with any luck Cole will arrive in time to limit that.

The 2022 Yankees were firing on all cylinders and getting those out-of-nowhere performances early in the season. Almost everything is clicking early this year too, especially with the rotation, but nothing about the offense feels unsustainable, and at some point Cole is coming back to give the Yankees a shot in the arm. Also, the 2024 Yankees have amazing vibes. There’s an energy to this group that’s been absent since when, 2019? Maybe 2017.

Paul asks: Last week, the Yes network had a stat about Yankees pitching allowing the fewest 2-out hits in MLB. That got me thinking about their offense. Where do they rank in getting 2-out hits?

Going into Thursday’s game the Yankees had allowed the fewest hits (80), the lowest AVG (.158), the lowest OBP (.252), and lowest SLG (.262) with two outs in baseball. The gaps are pretty big too. The Dodgers are second with a .188/.262/.283 line allowed with two outs. The Yankees have been excellent at closing out innings. They’ve been excellent at everything on the run prevention side, really.

As for the offense, the Yankees are tenth in two-out hits (130), ninth in AVG (.241), first in OBP (.338), and eighth in SLG (.402). Bit of a mixed bag there. Great at getting on base, middle of the pack at everything else. Thanks to the OBP, the Yankees have the third best two-out OPS (.740) behind the Red Sox (.776) and Phillies (.753). The Royals (.732), Braves (.725), and Guardians (.714) are right behind the Yankees. Good teams do this good thing well. News at 11.

I do want to note offensive numbers with two outs are comfortably below  where they are with one or two outs, and this has been true for the entirety of baseball history. Here’s are the 2024 league averages:

There are a many reasons for this and some of it is simple accounting: you can’t hit a sac fly or drop down a sac bunt with two outs. For example, if we count sac flies and sac bunts as at-bats, the AVG with no outs drops to .240, and three points of AVG is significant on a league-wide scale.

With two outs you also might see a closer come in to get a four-out save or just a fresh reliever in general to escape a jam. Hitters with two outs and the bases empty may have a different approach than they do with zero or one out (i.e. swing for the fences because building a rally with two outs is hard). The Yankees are the best in the league at closing out innings with two outs. They’re good with two outs offensively too, particularly at getting on base and extending the inning.

Matt asks: Is it just me or are the Yankees getting hit with fewer pitches this year? I recall Rizzo getting plunked a couple times but not much beyond that. Is it just me or are there fewer?

They are getting plunked at roughly the same rate as last year, which was down quite a bit from 2021-22. The Yankees are 20th with 18 HBP this year. Last year they were 19th with 47 HBP. Here are their HBP rates the last few years:

• 2021: 96.2 PA per HBP

• 2022: 88.2 PA per HBP

• 2023: 127.1 PA per HBP

• 2024: 113.9 PA per HBP

The league average this year is 90.9 PA per HBP. The Yankees are lagging behind that pace, though I’m not sure there’s any real significance to this. Yeah, it’s another way to get on base, but we don’t need Juan Soto or Aaron Judge getting hit and missing a few games (or longer). Anthony Rizzo has six HBP, Anthony Volpe has three, and no one else has more than two.

Mike asks: Stephen Ridings. Whatever happened to this guy?  I remember seeing his "I've peaked" tweet and thinking he may have just jinxed himself.

Everyone’s favorite substitute teacher turned reliever is an unsigned free agent and has been since the Mets released him last July 30th. The Yankees signed Ridings to a minor league deal in Jan. 2021 because he trained at Eric Cressey’s facility and Cressey, the Yankees’ director of player health and performance, put in a good word. The Yankees called Ridings up in Aug. 2021 because they needed bodies during a COVID outbreak. He allowed two runs (one earned) in five innings across five appearances, and tweeted “I’ve peaked” after appearing on Pitching Ninja.

Ridings came to Spring Training in 2022, developed a shoulder problem, and missed the season. The Yankees put him on waivers that November and the Mets claimed him. Now 28, Ridings allowed six runs in 11 Triple-A innings with the Mets in 2023 before they released him. He hasn’t played since. I’m not sure if he’s looking to continue his career or what. Ridings did spend 2022 on the MLB injured list and thus collected a year of big league pay and service time. That ain’t so bad.

Steve asks: Everything is going so well in Yankeeland. What can I realistically ask? How about our favorite Yankee fan pastime. Who's the next future Yankee? Gunnar Henderson at 3B in 4.5 years would be amazing (Scott Boras, so he's most likely hitting FA). At that point, the only long term contracts the Yankees have on the books will be Aaron Judge with 2 years left and I'm assuming long term contracts for Soto and Volpe. But Rodon, Cole, DJLM, Stanton, etc will have all fallen off. So my question is, who do you think is the next Future Yankee™? Predict the next signing over 100M. I know it's a broad question, but what is being a Yankee fan if you can't speculate on signing other teams' star players years before they hit free agency?

Not including Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe, two players immediately jumped to mind: Henderson and Tarik Skubal. Skubal is 2.5 years away from free agency and that’s an eternity in pitcher years (Skubal had flexor surgery not too long ago), but the guy has been out of this world the last three years: 3.00 ERA (2.47 FIP) with 28.6% strikeouts and 5.5% walks. Sure would be nice to add that to the rotation, no?

Before I continue, we should look over the contracts the Yankees have on the books, just so we get an idea of when money is coming off and whatnot. Here are the annual luxury tax hits:

• Aaron Judge: $40M through 2031

• Gerrit Cole: $36M through 2028 (2029 if the Yankees pick up the club option to void the opt out)

• Carlos Rodón: $27M through 2028

• Giancarlo Stanton: $22M through 2027

• DJ LeMahieu: $15M through 2026

• Marcus Stroman: $18.5M through 2025

• Aaron Hicks: $10M through 2025

With any luck, the Yankees will add Soto to that list at what, $45M a year through 2037? Lord. 2037 isn’t a real year. Anyway, the contracts are staggered and it is somewhat intentional. The Yankees try to structure their payroll in such a way that there’s money coming off the books every offseason rather than some this year, some more two years from now, then more three years after that, etc.

Skubal will be a free agent after 2026 and eh, that doesn’t align with the end of the biggest contracts the Yankees have. The 2028-29 offseason is when the Yankees will shed significant money and, wouldn’t you know it, Henderson is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2028 season. Good timing. Maybe the Orioles’ new owner will lock him up, but Henderson is a Boras client, so an extension may not be possible.

Here are a few other candidates to be the next $100M Yankee signing:

RHP Corbin Burnes: Would the Yankees pivot to Burnes if they don’t re-sign Soto? I don’t think so (my guess is they’ll look to reset their luxury tax rates if they don’t re-sign Soto) but we shouldn’t completely rule it out. Objectively, letting Cole walk if he uses his opt out and signing Burnes, who is four years younger and every bit as good (and not coming off an elbow injury), to replace him would be a smart move. (Free agent after 2024.)

C William Contreras: Contreras is so good. The guy is hitting .333/.408/.523 (165 wRC+) this year and .294/.371/.485 (136 wRC+) since the start of 2022, and he rates as a plus defender these days. Contreras will be 30 in Year 1 of his free agent contract and J.T. Realmuto got $115M at that age, so it is possible for a catcher in his 30s to get nine figures. (Free agent after 2027.)

SS Elly De La Cruz: Another Boras client, De La Cruz is a Statcast megastar and he’s starting to figure out an approach at the plate. His speed will fade as he ages, it does for everyone, but come free agency he’ll still be a switch-hitter with power and a rocket arm that is more than suitable for third base. Also, he’ll hit the market at age 27. (Free agent after 2029.)

OF Jasson Domínguez: Steve mentioned Soto and Volpe in his question, but we can’t forget about El Marciano. He has to complete his Tommy John surgery rehab and show last season’s eight-game cameo is the real him and wasn’t just a great week, but Domínguez certainly has the tools to be a $100M player. (Free agent after 2029 at the earliest.)

1B/3B Munetaka Murakami: Murakami has not been the same hitter since his record-setting 56-homer season with the Yakult Swallows in 2022, which means he’s been merely great instead of otherworldly: .258/.387/.502 with 41 home runs in 781 plate appearances since the start of 2023. Murakami is only 24 and he has big lefty power, something that always plays well in the Bronx. Even if he’s a first baseman long-term, he’s getting $100M. (Expected to be posted after 2025.)

OF Kyle Tucker: If the Yankees are unable to retain Soto, then Tucker is as good a bet as anyone to be their next major free agent target. Lose out on Soto, reset the luxury tax rates in 2024, then go all-in on Tucker next offseason. He’s going to hit the market at 28 and he’s a lefty hitter with contact, power, speed, defense, etc. Tucker does it all and the Astros have a history of letting their top players leave as free agents (Carlos Correa, George Springer, likely Alex Bregman, etc.). (Free agent after 2025.)

Soto and then down the line Volpe are, by a mile, the two best candidates to be the next $100M Yankee. Other than those two, I don’t see the Yankees handing out any other $100M contracts in the near future. I will say Henderson come the 2028-29 offseason will be the next player from outside the organization the Yankees give $100M+. Henderson’s free agency aligns nicely with money coming off the books.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)