April 19th, 2024: Judge, Gil, Rodón, Soto, Verdugo, Trammell, Mailbag

After many failed attempts earlier in life, I finally got into the NBA a few years ago (Josh Hart forever), and watching the Play-In Tournament earlier this week made me miss the Wild Card Game. It was hell whenever the Yankees played in it – so stressful! – but the Wild Card Game ruled. It was much more fun than the best-of-three Wild Card Series, fairness be damned. There’s no going back though. The postseason only gets bigger, never smaller. But the Wild Card Game was a good time. Great baseball theater. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post. (Heads up: I have an annoyingly busy weekend ahead of me and I don’t know how much time I’ll have to write. There will be a post Tuesday. I’m just not sure how long or in-depth.)

1. Weekday thoughts. Here’s a thing I did not realize: The Yankees are 14-8 in Toronto since Rogers Centre reopened in 2021. They’re 11-17 against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium since 2021. The Yankees rule in Toronto and the Blue Jays rule in the Bronx. What’s up with that? This week was their first series loss at Rogers Centre since dropping two of three from Sept. 13-15, 2019. (The Yankees did lose series in Buffalo and at their Spring Training complex when the Blue Jays played there during the pandemic.) If you’re going to drop two of three, this week’s series is the best way to do it. Great comeback in the final game and everyone got to spend the off-day feeling good about things. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Fighting Spirit

Not a good series in Toronto overall, but the first game was close, the Yankees made noise in the ninth inning of the second game, and then they came back in the ninth to win the third game. It was their first comeback of at least three runs in the eighth inning or later since Sept. 20th, 2022 against the Pirates. That was the game Aaron Judge hit No. 60 and Giancarlo Stanton hit the walk-off grand slam (video). You remember that, don't you?

The Yankees are 13-6 and six of the 13 wins are come-from-behind wins, including Wednesday’s game and the first three games in Houston. Four times in the six losses they had the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning. The two exceptions are the 7-0 blowout in Arizona and the first game of the series in Toronto, which the Yankees lost by two runs and went down 1-2-3 in the ninth.

Last year’s team mostly rolled over and took losses. This year’s team has some fight to it. Is it time to bring back the Fighting Spirit graphic? Remember this?

FOX showed that graphic I think during a nationally broadcast Yankees vs. Red Sox game. I remember being amused they omitted the Red Sox entirely. The RAB archives tell me the graphic is from July 2015. Did the Yankees really show fighting spirit that year? I remember them crashing pretty hard down the stretch. Maybe in July they did. August and September, not so much. 

Anyway, fighting spirit. Apparently the 2015 Yankees had it and it appears the 2024 Yankees do too. That blowout loss against the Diamondbacks is the only time they’ve been truly out of a game three weeks into the new season. That was a needed and satisfying win Wednesday.

“We have confidence. Grinding every day, playing 27 outs,” Juan Soto told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s win. “I have really good confidence in this team. We all know what kind of players we have. I trust every single one of them.”

Judge finally breaks though

The slash line made me do a double take: .183/.330/.380 (110 wRC+) through 19 games and 88 plate appearances. Aaron Judge is off to, by frickin’ far, the worst start to a season of his career, and that slash line includes his incredibly clutch go-ahead two-run single Wednesday (video). Here are Judge’s worst marks through 19 games to begin a season (ignoring his August debut in 2016):

• AVG: .183 in 2024 (Next worst: .246 in 2021)

• OBP: .324 in 2020 (Next worst: .330 in 2024)

• SLG: .380 in 2024 (Next worst: .449 in 2021)

• OPS: .710 in 2024 (Next worst: .815 in 2021)

I continue to believe Judge will be okay (as long as he’s healthy, which he might not be for all we know) and that the single biggest issue is his timing isn’t there after the spring abdominal injury, which limited him to 10 at-bats the last 17 days of camp. It’s really hard to try to get up to speed at the plate against the best pitchers in the world. I hoped it would happen by now, but it hasn’t.

(Kids these days don’t say “his timing is off.” They say “his point of contact is off.”)

Judge’s strikeout (25.0%), chase (17.4%), and swinging strike (11.0%) rates are all career bests (it’s only been 19 games, of course). His SEAGER is right in line with 2021, 2022, and 2023 as well. The swing decisions are still elite. Probably the best piece of evidence Judge’s timing is not right is the fact the man has become a pop up machine (and pop ups are essentially automatic outs):

"When I’m getting my pitch, I’m just missing it,” Judge told Hoch. “We’ve got to keep throwing out good at-bats and take my walks when I can if I don’t get anything. Just keep staying aggressive. That’s the only way to put up some hits, especially with our lineup. You’ve got to keep swinging.”

Judge is being pitched differently. He’s seen a ton of spin so far this year. The league as a whole continues to trend away from fastballs (despite all-time high velocity) and toward spin because spin is harder to hit, so this is not unique to Judge, but yeah, he is seeing more spin:

Seeing that many breaking balls can’t be helping his timing issues. Judge has been a very good breaking ball hitter throughout his career, but, like everyone else, he is a better fastball hitter, and he’s seeing fewer fastballs. There is a lot going on with Judge and it’s difficult to untangle why he’s struggling. The injury that interrupted his spring? All the spin? Dumb luck? It’s all of it, really.

Judge is not the only hitter struggling – Gleyber Torres has been dreadful and Anthony Rizzo seems incapable of turning on a pitch – but he is the straw that stirs the drink. If Judge doesn’t hit, then the jig is up, and the Yankees are going nowhere even with Soto. As long as Judge is healthy, he’ll snap out of it, though I admit it’s taking longer than I expected. Hopefully Wednesday’s game-winner gets him going.

“He’s gonna get it and buckle up,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips. “I feel like he’s been in and out of getting real close at times. But you just got to work to get that feeling, and he will.”

Gil makes history (and not in a good way)

Congrats to Luis Gil on making history. Monday’s pitching line – 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 6 K – had never been done before in MLB. James Smyth says no pitcher has matched those exact totals in over 1.1 million pitching lines. Gil also became the first Yankee to walk seven batters in a game since, uh, Luis Gil on Sept. 8th, 2021*. That was against the Blue Jays too. Baseball is a flat circle.

“There are good days and bad days,” Gil told Hoch after Monday’s walkfest. “At the end of the day, when you’re out there, you just have to keep battling. You have to keep visualizing the strike zone. You want to keep making pitches. It was definitely not my night tonight.”

* Gil walked seven in 3.1 innings that day. Next time out he walked one in six innings. That's Gil in a nutshell.

Credit to Gil for grinding his way through five innings to save the bullpen, and we should also thank the Blue Jays. Bo Bichette got picked off first base to end the first inning, and for some reason Daulton Varsho did not score from third on George Springer’s grounder to Oswaldo Cabrera. Cabrera had to range to his left and would’ve had a hard time throwing home (video). Regardless, Gil was all over the place:

Gil was on two extra days of rest and so many fastballs above the zone can sometimes be an indicator the pitcher feels a little too strong, but who knows. We’re not talking about some control artist here. Gil’s career minor league walk rate is almost 14% and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, which tends to hamper control in the short-term. A pitcher with poor control had poor control. News at 11.

“I don’t think it affected me,” Gil told Hoch about the extra rest. “It’s definitely extra time that you’re not used to, but you’re just trying to execute pitches. If it’s not working or you’re not getting the results you really want, you keep battling and keep your focus on the strike zone. You’ve got to keep your head up high.”

I don’t agree with it, but there’s a school of thought that walks are acceptable because they’re better than allowing contact – this is not new either, it goes back to when Carlos Marmol was closing for the Cubs – and that is Gil to the max. He’s walked 14 batters in his 14 innings. He’s also allowed only six hits. 32.8% strikeout rate plus 23.0% walk rate equals only 44.2% of plate appearances ending in a ball in play. 

Gil’s three starts have gotten progressively worse and he lines up to face the Rays, Brewers, Orioles, and Astros in his next four starts. That is … not great. The Yankees could use off-days to rearrange the rotation, but they can't avoid Gil entirely. Gerrit Cole can’t be activated for another six weeks, and although Cody Poteet’s spot start was great, I can’t say I’m ready to see him take a regular turn.

The arm talent is obvious. Gil can throw his fastball by hitters in the strike zone – his 35.2% fastball whiff rate is fifth highest in baseball – and his changeup is coming along nicely. He could stand to throw his slider a little more, but the stuff is there. Gil makes the Statcast machine go brrr:

The question is, as it always has been, can Gil throw enough strikes? I’m not talking about getting down to a Nestorian 5.4% walk rate either. Just give me a below average 10% walk rate and Gil could be a monster. More than likely though, we’ll have to live with walk-filled starts. That’s just who Gil is right now. Three runs in five innings Monday wasn’t a disaster, though it was on the precipice of being one all night.

“When he’s in the strike zone, he can be dominant, and will be dominant,” Boone told Hoch “That’s just the next level for him. That’s where we’ve seen growth with his strike-throwing ability, but tonight was a challenge for him. If that continues to improve, even on a night where he struggled, you got a peek at how difficult he is to square up.”

Rodón and the overall lack of whiffs

It was hard to tell which lefty has the $162M contract and which has the $36M contract Tuesday, wasn’t it? Yusei Kikuchi was electric in shutting the Yankees down for the second time in 12 days. They can’t touch that guy. Carlos Rodón, meanwhile, needed 101 pitches to get through four innings. It could have been worse than three runs in four innings, for sure, but it was pretty bad as it was.

“I give them props, because they had some really good at-bats,” Rodón told Hoch after the game. “They made me work. It was tough. I wish I was better tonight. I had good stuff. I had stuff to get guys out, but they had a good approach.”

Simply put, Rodón doesn’t have a putaway pitch. His fastball no longer gets whiffs and the new cutter is useful but not a game changer. The Blue Jays fouled away 27 pitches, the sixth most allowed by a pitcher in a game this season. They had 16 fouls in two-strike counts. That’s the third most in a game this season. Rodón’s allowed a .256/.383/.462 line in two-strike counts in 2024. That is horrible. The league average in two-strike counts is .165/.248/.249.

Rodón’s strikeout (20.0%), walk (12.2%), and swinging strike (10.5%) rates are all comfortably worse than average. His swing-and-miss ability has vanished. That applies to the staff as a whole as well. I know I’ve been harping on it with the bullpen lately, but it really is the entire staff. To wit:

The Yankees are excellent at limiting hard contact. They’ve allowed the sixth lowest average exit velocity (88.1 mph), second lowest barrel rate (4.7%), and second lowest hard-hit rate (34.1%) in the early going. That is the single biggest reason they rank fifth in the league with the 3.11 ERA, broken down into seventh with a 3.47 ERA from their starters and fourth with a 2.62 ERA from their relievers. The Yankees live and die by the ability to get weak contact.

Every inning is a battle though. The outs don’t ever seem to come easy because the pitchers don’t miss bats and the infielders kick the ball around (how in the world was this scored a hit???). The Yankees are doing a great job grinding out at-bats and making the pitcher work, right? Well, so is the other team. The starter is at 40 pitches after two innings and the bullpen is in the game in the sixth. It is an almost daily occurrence. Here’s what Matt Blake told Gary Phillips about the bullpen’s lack of strikeouts:

“The group as a whole is largely designed to manage contact quality,” pitching coach Matt Blake told the Daily News. “I think that’s probably what their strength is. Do you wish they’d punch more guys out? Sure. But it’s really more about the walks for me than anything. We’re walking too many guys (9.9% walks for the bullpen) if we’re not going to strike guys out. You gotta do probably two of those things really well, and right now we’re probably doing [contact quality] really well. The other two are more marginal.”

…

“There’s probably spots where we could execute better with two strikes,” Blake said. “We won’t stay near the bottom of the league in strikeouts, but I don’t know if it’s necessarily a high strikeout group in general.”

I get that the pitching coach is going to defend his guys, but that’s a little too dismissive of a very real problem. The Blue Jays scored their fourth run Wednesday because Ian Hamilton couldn’t put Vlad Guerrero Jr. away after getting ahead in the count 1-2 (he walked him), then Bichette had a sac fly in a two-strike count. In situations that called for a swing and miss, the trusted Hamilton could not get it.

I know I’m repeating myself every post, I’m sorry, but this is important stuff. Go back through the last few years and look at the bottom 5-6 teams in strikeout rate. They’re all very bad and the Yankees are too close to that range for my liking. In the year 2024, you have to miss bats, and the Yankees don’t. Getting Cole back will help. Otherwise, the Yankees don’t have many internal candidates to add whiffs. I’m curious to see how they address this, if they even do address it.

Miscellany

Soto went 3-for-3 with a double, a homer, and two walks Wednesday. He’s hitting .351/.478/.577 (210 wRC+) with almost twice as many walks (20.0%) as strikeouts (12.2%). In the ninth inning Wednesday, Soto took a pitch below the zone that was called a strike, and after Tim Mayza tried to do it again for strike three, Soto stared him down and nodded his head no as he walked to first base.

Just about anyone else doing that would look dickish. Soto just oozes cool. Also, allow me to point out that April is Soto's *worst* month, historically. Gonna be a fun summer … Alex Verdugo has six doubles on the season, the most by a Yankee through 19 games since, well, DJ LeMahieu had six doubles in the first 19 games last year. But before LeMahieu it was Miguel Andujar in 2018. He had 12 (!) doubles through 19 games that year. I’m pleasantly surprised Verdugo’s continued to slash doubles despite being away from the doubles haven that is Fenway Park. He’s driven the ball into the right field corner a few times, and poked doubles down the line the other way as well … Marcus Stroman has thrown 22.1 innings as a Yankee and in those 22.1 innings the offense has scored two runs. Looks like he’s the heir apparent to the Hiroki Kuroda/Jordan Montgomery no run support throne … I wanted Austin Wells to pinch-hit for Jose Trevino in the ninth inning Tuesday because Jordan Romano has a sizable platoon split, and I was totally cool with Trevino pinch-hitting for Wells in the ninth inning Wednesday. Wells hasn’t faced many lefties and Mayza can be predictable because he throws a lot of fastballs up to righties. Seemed like a good matchup for Trevino’s bat-to-ball ability, and he came through. I’m not a fan of letting him face righties late in close games though … And finally, the Yankees get a lot of ground balls they can’t turn into a double play because they’re hit too slowly, no? This might be recency bias after Springer did it in the ninth inning Wednesday (video), though it would align with the team’s emphasis on weak contact. Maybe I’m just imagining things.

Up next

A seven-game homestand against the Rays and Athletics. Also, the Yankees will honor John Sterling with a pregame ceremony prior to Saturday’s game. Here are the pitching matchups for the games between now and the next post:

• Friday vs. Rays: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. TBA (7pm ET)

• Saturday vs. Rays: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Zach Eflin (1pm ET)

• Sunday vs. Rays: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Aaron Civale (1:30pm ET)

• Monday vs. Athletics: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP JP Sears (1pm ET)

Monday is the first night of Passover, hence the 1pm start.

Anyway, lefty Tyler Alexander is lined up to pitch bulk innings Friday. The only question is whether the Rays will pair him with an opener, which they’ve done twice in his three outings. Either way, Alexander should be in the game by time the No. 8-9 lineup spots come up. Things line up nicely for Trevino to start Friday, Wells to start Saturday and Sunday, and Trevino to start Monday.

Similar to the Yankees, the Rays have several core players who haven’t hit much yet. Randy Arozarena has a 53 wRC+ and Yandy Díaz has a 76 wRC+, plus the Lowes (Brandon and Josh) are hurt. Tampa’s had trouble scoring as a result. They’re also very right-handed. Old pal Ben Rortvedt and Berkeley Carroll’s own Richie Palacios are their only regular lefty bats.

Also, closer Pete Fairbanks has really struggled early on (7 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 8 BB, 10 K). Could get interesting if the Yankees are down in the ninth and he enters the game. Seems like a lot of top closers have struggled this year, no? Fairbanks, David Bednar, Josh Hader, etc. Ryan Pressly’s no longer a closer but he’s stunk too. It’s a shame. You hate to see an honest team like the Astros start the year 6-14.

2. Yankees claim Trammell, DFA Smith. Weird waiver claim Thursday. The Yankees claimed outfielder Taylor Trammell and designated infielder Kevin Smith for assignment yesterday, the team announced. Trammell had been with the Dodgers, who claimed him from the Mariners on April 2nd. The 26-year-old is a former top 100 prospect. He went 0-for-6 with three strikeouts with Los Angeles.

Claiming Taylor and DFAing Smith is fine in a vacuum. Like, whatever, the Yankees are swapping out fringe roster position players. The move is weird because now the Yankees have two left-handed hitting outfielders on the bench and no backup left side of the infielder. Trent Grisham already barely plays. How is Trammell, who is out of options, supposed to get into the lineup? What purpose does he serve?

Jahmai Jones, the only other non-catcher on the bench, is a natural second baseman who’s never played shortstop in pro ball, and has 14 career innings at third base (one nine-inning game in Triple-A last year and four innings this spring). Oswaldo Cabrera can back up short, so the Yankees must be comfortable with Jones at third base despite his inexperience for this bench to make sense. Otherwise, I dunno.

There’s a chance an outfielder is injured – Aaron Judge has his toe thing (and abdominal thing?) and Alex Verdugo kinda sorta grabbed at his leg in the ninth inning Wednesday – in which case Grisham goes into the starting lineup and Trammell goes to the bench. But then the Yankees would need to call up another infielder (Jeter Downs?) and would have to make a 40-man roster move to do so. There are no healthy 40-man infielders in the minors.

DJ LeMahieu will begin a rehab assignment Friday and Jon Berti can be activated Tuesday (I have no idea how Berti’s doing), so maybe the Yankees will just gamble with Jones as the backup infielder until Berti or LeMahieu makes it back? I dunno. Feels like there is another shoe to drop and I’m not sure what it is. I just hope no one is hurt. A poorly constructed bench wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

As for Trammell, he’s a career .165/.266/.361 (79 wRC+) hitter in 357 big league plate appearances spread across 2021-24. He’s a career .274/.381/.506 (116 wRC+) hitter in over 800 Triple-A plate appearances. In 2021, the last time Trammell was prospect-eligible, Baseball America (subs. req’d) said he “has the ingredients to be an offensive asset, but he hasn’t put them all together.” Seems that’s still true in 2024.

It is at least a little interesting the Dodgers and then the Yankees claimed Trammell. Those are two pretty smart teams, and if they claimed him, they must see something. For what it’s worth, Trammell’s contact quality has been strong, and you can put him in center field. The waiver claim itself (and cutting Smith) is fine. Nothing wrong with rolling the dice on a player like this. Maybe you’re the team that unlocks him.

It’s just a weird roster fit. The bench right now is a catcher (Jose Trevino or Austin Wells), a second baseman (Jones), and two lefty hitting outfielders (Grisham and Trammell). I’m not quite sure what the plan is, but that bench doesn’t seem like a thing the Yankees will stick with. Don’t be surprised if there’s another move before tonight’s game, and fingers crossed it doesn’t not involve an injured outfielder.

(I’m sure Smith will clear waivers and return to Scranton as a non-40-man roster player. And if not, oh well. He spent five days on the MLB roster and appeared in one game. Smith pinch-ran for Giancarlo Stanton at second base in the tenth inning in the series finale in Cleveland. He was the guy who got thrown out at home on Verdugo’s rally killing 3-2-3 double play.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: What are the chances DJ is leading off once he returns?

I think 0% when he returns. The other day Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips he’s “probably not taking Anthony out of the leadoff spot” when DJ LeMahieu gets back, which is about as close as Boone will get to definitively saying something will/will not happen. I figure the lineup will look something like this when LeMahieu returns:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton (flipping him and Rizzo would be reasonable at this point)
6. 3B DJ LeMahieu
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. LF Alex Verdugo
9. C Austin Wells

Oswaldo Cabrera doesn’t deserve to sit, but he sat three straight days in favor of Jon Berti last week, so I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to sit him for LeMahieu. It really should be Rizzo who loses at-bats to LeMahieu. Torres has been worse but I feel better about the healthy 27-year-old getting on track than I do the soon-to-be 35-year-old with a bad back coming off a concussion.

Volpe is starting to level out – he’s hitting .255/.333/.333 (102 wRC+) in 13 games since his four-hit game in Arizona – but the Yankees are all in the kid. He’s going to have to crash and crash hard to lose the leadoff spot at this point. LeMahieu’s going to bounce all around the infield when he comes back. I do not expect him to go back to the top of the lineup though. Volpe is the leadoff hitter.

Michael asks: If Stanton ends the season with an OBP that starts with a 3 (even 0.301) and hits 35+ bombs, do we consider that season a success?? And would you sign up for it right now??

Giancarlo’s sitting on a .254/.302/.559 (147 wRC+) line right now and yes, I would sign up for a .301 OBP with 35+ homers. Some of his plate discipline numbers are really bad (36.2% chase rate, 75.7% in-zone contact rate, his worst SEAGER on record, etc.). Getting on base at even a league average clip may be something Stanton just can’t do anymore. He can still change a game with one swing though. The power is there. If he loses that though, forget it, he’ll be useless. I’d trade the OBP for homers.

Chris asks: Do you think it’s possible for Luis Gil to learn even average control of his fastball? Control seems like a difficult skill to improve in the big leagues, are there any good examples that could give us hope?

The most obvious example is Randy Johnson, who had a 13.0% walk rate from 1988-94, his age 24-30 seasons, then suddenly cut it to 7.5% in 1995 and kept it at 6.9% the rest of his career. Johnson is an extreme example and I don’t like using Hall of Famers as a basis of comparison for anyone. The Big Unit is what, a top five pitcher all-time? Maybe top three? That guy is such an outlier.

Among mere mortals and more recent examples, there’s Robbie Ray, who had an 11.0% walk rate from 2014-2020 and then cut it to 6.7% in 2021, and won a Cy Young. Framber Valdez went from 10.6% walks from 2018-21 to 7.6% walks from 2022-23. There are examples of young pitchers walking a lot of hitters early in their careers, then the light bulb going on and them getting to the next level.

It does not happen often, however, and these control challenged pitchers usually leave you hoping this is the start or this is the year they finally figure it out. Think Tyler Chatwood, Ubaldo Jiménez, etc. I would sign up for Gil becoming Ubaldo in a heartbeat, but being an effective starter while walking that many batters is a difficult needle to thread. Some figure it out and improve. Most leave you frustrated.

Eric asks: I realize Spencer Jones has all the skills to play the outfield but given the first base (lack of) depth chart you mentioned in a recent post, do you think the Yankees brass would pull the trigger on calling up Jones to play first?

Jones was back in the lineup this week. He returned from his stiff neck in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader, but he did not play the night game and he did not play Sunday either, plus Monday was an off-day. Jones has been in the lineup playing his usual center field this week though. It seems all is well with his neck. He was 3-for-9 with a double, two walks, and two strikeouts going into last night’s game.

As for first base, I don’t think the Yankees would do that. Jones has barely gotten his feet wet in Double-A and a hitter like him (long levers, big zone to cover, etc.) figures to need time to adjust each time he moves up a level. That’s been true in his career to date, anyway. Jones did play a handful of games at first base at Vanderbilt, though it would essentially be a new position for him.

If things get bad enough with Anthony Rizzo that the Yankees decide to make a chance at first base, they should go trade for a new first baseman. Last year’s call ups happened because the Yankees were out of the race, and also because those guys were either on or going on the 40-man roster after the season. None of that applies now. I wouldn’t count on Jones to replace Rizzo this summer. Go get a new first baseman if need be.

Steve asks: So Nestor’s crazy windup antics (which I find hilarious) had me wondering about the pitch clock rules. It states “The pitcher must begin his motion to deliver the pitch before the expiration of the pitch timer.” Some pitchers have complained about the pitch clock being too short. To avoid this does that mean the pitcher can “start” their windup with one second but do it extremely slow or something ridiculous like Nestor does? That way they can avoid the automatic ball? I guess what I’m asking is if they want an extra few seconds to get rest/get ready for that pitch can they just slooooowly start their wind up? Idk. Whatever Nestor is doing is hilarious and am aware that he can only do this while now one is on base otherwise it’s a balk. 

Yep, absolutely. Marcus Stroman does this pretty regularly. He’ll take a step back to “start” his delivery for pitch clock purposes, take a breath to regroup, then deliver the pitch. That’s far from Nestor Cortes level funk, but that is more or less what Steve is asking, whether the pitcher can start his delivery to satisfy the pitch clock, then slow things down to get a brief rest. That’s legal.

Why don’t more pitchers do it? I reckon it’s because they don’t feel comfortable altering the rhythm of their deliveries. Muscle memory kicks in and once you start moving, it’s difficult to stop and restart while still executing. I know they’re fun and gimmicky, but Nestor’s funky deliveries take a lot of athleticism. It’s hard to do stuff like that on the mound and then get back into position to make a competitive pitch.

Jim asks: I was looking at your post on international free agent class a few months ago about the much-hyped Yankee 2014 International free agent class. As you know it was the last year under old rules where teams could exceed spending limits and pay a 100% tax. The Yankees were willing to go all in in 2014 and I loved the idea of the Yankees leveraging their financial might. Obviously, as we know it didn’t work out. I am surprised none of the signees ever showed even enough potential to be used as trade. I know Ronald Acuna ended up being the best player in the 2014 international class, but he was a bargain basement signing by Atlanta. I was wondering were any of the top tier prospects that Yankees missed on or was the entire 2014 international class weak? 

Acuña was an unheralded $100,000 signing on July 2nd, 2014, the day the 2014-15 international signing period opened, and within 18 months it was obvious he was a budding superstar. Those out-of-nowhere success stories happen much more often in international free agency than in the draft just because those kids are so young and have so much more growing/developing ahead of them.

By and large, the 2014-15 international signing class was a dud. The only player on MLB.com’s top 30 international prospects list to have any sorta MLB success is Huascar Ynoa, who signed with the Twins, got traded to the Braves for old pal Jaime García, and had a 4.05 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 91 innings in 2021. The most impactful top 30 guy was Franklin Pérez, who the Astros traded for Justin Verlander. Pérez never made it out of Single-A and now pitches for the independent Gary SouthShore RailCats.

As I write this Tuesday afternoon, I count 22 players on MLB active rosters or injured lists who originally signed during the 2014-15 international signing period, and only five are still with their original organization. Those 22 players, listed by bonus:

Digging through transaction logs led to some serious Remember Some Guys-ing. Olivares was traded for Yangervis Solarte! De Los Santos was traded for Joaquin Benoit! Clase was traded for Brett Nicholas (as a player to be named later)! There are a few big time deals there too. Moncada for Chris Sale, Montero for Nolan Arenado, Sixto for J.T. Realmuto, Contreras for Sean Murphy, etc.

Moncada was a special case because he defected from Cuba in June 2014 and was cleared to sign in Feb. 2015, and the hype was out of control. That was the peak of Cuban player hysteria. The Athletics hit the jackpot with Yoenis Céspedes in 2012 and José Abreu was great as a rookie as 2014, and that led to Moncada and Rusney Castillo and Héctor Olivera and Yasmany Tomás getting massive contracts. Teams got a little out of control with Cuban players in the mid-2010s.

The Braves are the big winners of the 2014-15 signing period because they landed Acuña and Contreras. The Astros found three legitimate MLB starters in Javier, Urquidy, and Valdez. They’ve had a lot of success signing older international pitchers. Urquidy signed at 20. Valdez signed at 21. Ronel Blanco, the guy you never heard of who threw that no-hitter a few weeks ago? That dude’s 30. He was 22 and working at a car wash when the Astros signed him for $5,000 in 2016.

Looking at the table, it seems to me the key to international free agency is knowing which 16-year-old is going to show up to Spring Training throwing 98-100 mph in a few years. The Yankees spent over $30M between bonuses and penalties during the 2014-15 signing period, landed several players who were by all accounts very highly regarded, and they got basically nothing out of it. Them's the breaks.

Paul asks: Is David Robertson a Hall of Famer?

No but his case is about as good as it can be for a reliever who spent the majority of his career as a setup man. Robertson does have 175 career saves, most coming during his time with the White Sox, though that’s out of 803 career appearances. Here is the career WAR leaderboard for pitchers with fewer than 200 saves and fewer than 50 starts:

1. John Hiller: +31.0 WAR
2. Kent Tekulve: +26.1 WAR
3. Jesse Orosco: +22.9 WAR
4. Don McMahon: +22.6 WAR
5. Roy Face: +21.1 WAR
6. Tug McGraw: +21.0 WAR
7. Keith Foulke: +20.8 WAR
8. David Robertson: +20.5 WAR

Foulke threw 786.2 career innings. Robertson is at 815.1. Everyone else on that list is over 1,240 career innings. There are eight relievers in the Hall of Fame (Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm) and all were capital-C Closers except Wilhelm, because closers weren’t really a thing yet when he played.

The door is beginning to open for relievers, though I think we’re going to need to see guys like Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Billy Wagner get into the Hall of Fame before the Robertsons of the world get serious consideration. Robertson is without question one of the best relievers of this generation though. He’s had about as good a career as you can have while spending more time as a setup man than closer.

Adam asks: Would you rather the Yankees be guaranteed a World Series win this year and Juan Soto walks in free agency or would you rather roll the dice on this season and you are guaranteed Soto signs long term (and gets enshrined in the Hall of Fame with a Yankees cap)?

I get asked a variation of this question – would you take a guaranteed World Series win or this other thing? – every few months and my answer is always the other thing. I think I would lose interest in baseball if I knew the outcome ahead of time. I understand I’m a spoiled Yankees fan who spent his formative years watching his team win championship after championship, and that I would likely have a different answer if I were a long-suffering Guardians fan or Mariners fans or whatever, but I am what I am, and I think knowing the outcome would take something away from it for me. Plus I’d like to think the Yankees can win a World Series or three with Juan Soto after signing him long-term. I’m passing on the guaranteed World Series title.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)