April 12th, 2024: Rodón, Judge, Volpe, Verdugo, Rizzo, Mailbag

We’re only two weeks into the season and I’ve already run out of intro material. The dog days of summer arrive a little earlier with each passing year. Let’s get right to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. It would have been nice to finish the sweep Wednesday, especially against a bad team like the Marlins, but did you know this is only the sixth time in franchise history the Yankees have won their first four series of the season? James Smyth says they also did it in 1922, 1926, 2010, 2020, and 2023. They won their first five series in 1926 and 2010. Can the 2024 Yankees match them this weekend in Cleveland? I hope so. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

Rodón’s new arsenal (for at least one night)

Carlos Rodón has gotten better each time out this year and Tuesday was his best, most encouraging start as a Yankee. Yes, the Marlins stink, and no, Rodón still isn’t missing bats with his fastball, but the cutter is becoming a legit weapon, and he executed his changeup well. Rodon went changeup, cutter, changeup to strike out Josh Bell on three pitches in the first inning (video). Who is this pitcher and what has he done with Carlos Rodón?

“A lot of righties in the lineup that we thought that changeup would work well against, and today I had it,” Rodón told Gary Phillips after the game. “The profile was good and the location was good. Got some good swing and miss on it, and just hope to keep using that further on.”

Nestor Cortes threw a lot of changeups Monday and both he and Rodón said they leaned on it because the Marlins are free swingers – MLB worst 34.5% chase rate! – so we’ll see what happens moving forward. They might scale back on the changeup for matchup reasons. The cutter seems real though. Rodón threw 16 cutters and 15 sliders, and more cutters than sliders would’ve been unthinkable even 2-3 weeks ago.

Rodón threw four pitches (fastball, cutter, slider, changeup) at least 10 times each Tuesday. It was the first time he’d thrown four different pitches at least 10 times each in a regular season game since Sept. 2018. From 2021-23, Rodón was roughly 90% fastballs and sliders. Three starts into 2024, and especially Tuesday night, he’s more well-rounded. Alex Verdugo explained it best. From Greg Joyce:

“Throwing in that changeup, I feel like he’s really pitching now with the four-seamer, the cutter, the changeup and slider,” Verdugo said. “The biggest thing is usually he’s a fastball-slider guy so guys can kind of take their chance and open up a little bit more. Because righties, everything’s coming into them. Lefties, everything’s going away. Just to add that changeup against righties, it humbles and balances it out a little bit. Can’t have guys cheating. It just forces them to be a lot more accurate with their barrel. He’s been lights out.”

In addition to the cutter and changeup, Rodón just looks more comfortable this season too. I’m sure my feelings about that will change if he gives up a walk, a bloop, and a blast in the first inning against the Blue Jays next week, but Rodón never seemed to really “fit in” last year, for lack of a better term. Being healthy can make a big difference. Being injured sucks. Guys say it feels like you’re not part of the team when you're on the injured list.

I have no idea what happened to Rodón’s ability to miss bats with his fastball – he has an 18.2% fastball whiff rate, well below the 22.1% league average – but I hope he regains it at some point. For now, Rodón is making progress widening his arsenal and learning how to get outs with what he has. This most definitely is not 2021-22 Rodón. He’s going about in a very different way and, at least on Tuesday, it worked well.

“It’s a step in the right direction today,” Rodón told Bryan Hoch after Tuesday’s game. “Just keep going. The confidence is growing, for sure.”

Judge’s slow start

For a moment I thought the Marlins might intentionally walk Aaron Judge with the bases loaded in the ninth inning Wednesday. Four times in history a batter has been intentionally walked with the bases loaded, most recently Corey Seager in 2022, and although Judge hasn’t yet been AARON JUDGE, he’s still Aaron Judge. Giancarlo Stanton was lifted for a pinch-runner in the previous inning, so the options behind Judge were:

• Jahmai Jones, who had one at-bat in the previous 16 days.

• Austin Wells against hard-throwing lefty Tanner Scott.

• Trent Grisham, who had not played in a week, against Scott.

• Oswaldo Cabrera, who is apparently more comfortable hitting left-handed.

I would have walked Judge I think? Yeah, I would have. That would have pushed the tying run into scoring position, but every runner is in scoring position with Judge, and the options behind him weren’t great. The Yankees would’ve pinch-hit Cabrera for Jones, probably? Cabrera has said he sees velocity from lefties better when he hits lefty, so presumably he would’ve hit lefty against Scott. No good options there.

The Marlins pitched to Judge and it worked out for them, but man, Scott was nine batters and 34 pitches into his outing, and he gave Judge a pitch to hit. Not quite center cut, though we’ve seen Judge hit 95 mph fastballs in this location into Monument Park. And into the short porch. And into the left field second deck. Scott got away with one.

Wednesday’s 0-for-4 with a walk put Judge’s slash line at .178/.367/.378 (127 wRC+) two weeks into 2024. He has the highest walk rate in baseball (23.3%) and the lowest strikeout (21.7%) and swinging strike (11.2%) rates of his career. The on-contact damage hasn’t been there though. Judge’s contact quality is excellent for mere mortals, yet down considerably for him:

• Exit velocity: 92.8 mph (97.6 mph in 2023)

• Hard-hit rate: 45.5% (64.2% in 2023)

• Barrel rate: 12.1% (27.5% in 2023)

• xwOBA on contact: .390 (.635 in 2023, lol)

Judge had 10 at-bats the final 17 days of Spring Training and then he jumped right into the regular season, where the pitching and game-planning are more focused. As long as Judge is healthy – and we don’t know that he is between the toe and abdominal – I’m sure he’ll be fine. His timing is all out of whack though. Pitches he usually hits into the bleachers are being fouled off or popped up. No one’s more frustrated than him.

“I mean, he does have an almost .400 on-base percentage. I sure would like to struggle like that,” Aaron Boone told Bridget Reilly on Wednesday. “It’s a matter of time. I feel like his at-bats have been really good. What was he on base four times (Tuesday) night? I think so. I’m not too worried about Aaron Judge.”

It’s encouraging the Yankees are 10-3 even though Judge isn’t himself yet, Anthony Rizzo seems incapable of hitting the ball hard (86.2 mph average exit velocity), and Gleyber Torres has been a complete non-factor. The Yankees had a real hard time winning games when those three didn’t perform the last few years. A deeper lineup gives you more margin of error and the Yankees have needed it early on.

The new leadoff hitter

One day – literally one day! – after he said moving Anthony Volpe into the leadoff spot is “not something I’m in a real hurry to do,” Boone moved Volpe into the leadoff spot. Boone said he did it because he felt Torres was putting too much pressure on himself, but he also said he thinks Torres is on the verge of breaking out. A perfect Booneism. Two statements that don’t make sense together.

“I feel like if I left him there over time, he’d be Gleyber Torres, and we’d see the results,” Boone told Max Goodman. “But I feel like it’s weighed on him a little bit here in the last two nights, maybe chasing that result a little bit. (I think he is) on the verge of really getting it going.”

Earlier this week I said I didn’t want the Yankees to move Volpe to the leadoff spot yet and I still don’t, but I don’t think it’s a colossal mistake or anything. I’m sure it’ll be fine. I just don’t like making big lineup changes two weeks into the season. Can’t we let the kid settle in and let his slash line level out? The Yankees had not even played one full homestand before moving Volpe to the top of the lineup.

The timing was weird too. It was the day before an off-day, Volpe was coming off an 0-for-4, and he was quietly hitting .269/.296/.385 (100 wRC+) in the seven games since his four-hit game in Arizona. We still have no idea how good Volpe actually is. Maybe take some time to find out before rearranging the lineup? We all want Volpe to be the leadoff hitter for the next 10 years, but let’s not rush into it.

It feels like we’re a week away from hearing Michael Kay say “Volpe is 2-for-23 since moving to the leadoff spot and you wonder Paul if he’s putting too much pressure on himself” when it’s just an expected return to Earth because he’s not gonna hit .372/.460/.581 (207 wRC+) with a .438 BABIP all year. I dunno. Just feels like a move that didn’t have to be made yet. Whatever. No big deal. Go kill it, Tony.

(Being 10-2 at the time has nothing to do with me not wanting to move Volpe into the leadoff spot yet. If you think something makes you a better team, do it, no matter what your record is.)

The lack of strikeouts

I was hoping he’d make it through the Marlins series, but alas, Verdugo finally swung and missed at a pitch in the strike zone Tuesday night. To be fair, it was against A.J. Puk, who’s got a Randy Johnson thing going on as a big lefty (6-foot-7) who slings the ball from a low arm slot, so Verdugo can be forgiven. It wasn’t like the pitch was center cut either. Non-zero chance the ump calls this a ball if Verdugo doesn’t swing.

I bring this up only to note that, going into Tuesday night’s game, Verdugo and Jung-Hoo Lee were the only qualified hitters who had yet to swing and miss at a pitch in the strike zone (Lee still hasn’t). In 52 plate appearances, Verdugo has four strikeouts (7.7%), and poor umpiring contributed to two of them Wednesday night. He’s swung and missed seven times at 210 pitches for a 3.3% swinging strike rate, fourth lowest in MLB.

Verdugo is an extreme case – he’s always been a high contact hitter and he’s taken it to the max early this season – though he’s not the only Yankee with a better than league average strikeout rate two weeks into the season. The league average is a 22.6% strikeout rate. Judge (21.7%), Torres (21.3%), Rizzo (19.6%), Volpe (17.6%), Wells (16.7%), and Juan Soto (12.9%) are all better than that in addition to Verdugo.

The Yankees as a team have a 20.5% strikeout rate, seventh lowest in baseball. That’s down from 23.9% last year. They targeted hitters with strong contact rates over the winter (Soto, Verdugo, etc.) and the results are obvious. The offense is improved even without Judge, Rizzo, and Torres clicking yet, and the Yankees put the ball in play more often. That’s a good, aesthetically pleasing thing.

On the other end of the spectrum, Yankees pitchers have the fourth lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.6%. Gerrit Cole being out is a factor, though the Yankees prioritize weak contact, preferably on the ground but they’ll take it in the air. Their bullpen is built around it and it led them to Marcus Stroman over, say, Blake Snell. The pursuit of weak contact is achieving the desired results:

• Exit velocity: 87.8 mph (sixth lowest in MLB)

• Hard-hit rate: 32.0% (lowest)

• Barrel rate: 4.6% (third lowest)

• BABIP: .260 (fourth lowest)

Even without an elite team defense – the Yankees are tenth in both DRS (+3) and OAA (+1) – the Yankees have converted balls in play into outs at one of the highest rates in the league (i.e. low BABIP) because their weak contact ability lends to easy plays. It’s only two weeks. Will this continue? I hope so, but I don’t know so. This is the plan though. Generate weak contact and turn that weak contact into outs.

I would like the pitching staff to strike out more batters, but speaking strictly as a viewer, this is so refreshing. Between the hitters (20.5% strikeout rate) and pitchers (19.6%), Yankees games have featured more balls in play and more action early this year than at any point I can remember.

Miscellany

Rizzo has been awfully shaky in the field two weeks into the season. He’s muffed several batted balls and throws that we’re used to seeing him vacuum up. Normally I’d chalk this up to a defensive slump, those happen, but Rizzo is coming off a concussion that he said messed with his depth perception. It’s not time to panic yet. This is definitely something to monitor though … The Yankees had a lot of just misses during the Marlins series, no? More than a few balls that looked gone off the bat, and then just died. Here are their outs on fly balls and line drives the last three games:

Yeah, I wasn’t imagining things. Lotta deep outs that series. Those will turn into homers once the weather warms up. Also, look how many more fly balls and line drives they hit to right field than left! An offense built for Yankee Stadium?

… No pinch-hitter for Jose Trevino in the eighth inning Wednesday, huh. He did hit a ball to the warning track earlier in the game, but still, the Yankees were down three runs with four outs to go. Trevino is 1-for-18 with a bloop single and three GIDPs this year, so that’s 20 outs in 18 at-bats. Oddly curious to see how deep into the season he can go with more outs than at-bats … The Marlins started three lefties and Jon Berti started all three games. Add in Thursday’s off-day, and that’s four straight games on the bench for Cabrera. Not a fan. Berti’s a useful player – he gives me major Jayson Nix vibes – but don’t let him stand in the way of a young kid having much-needed success early in the season. Should’ve given Cabrera a start one of those three days. Hopefully he doesn’t miss a beat when he returns to the lineup this weekend … And finally, Wednesday’s home run gave Stanton a home run against all 30 teams. As best I can tell, he’s the 73rd player to do it, and I count 15 others who are active: Mookie Betts, Nick Castellanos, Randal Grichuk, Manny Machado, Martín Maldonado (!), J.D. Martinez, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Hunter Renfroe, Eddie Rosario, Carlos Santana, Kyle Schwarber, and Jorge Soler. In 1997, the year he got traded from the Athletics to the Cardinals, Mark McGwire hit a home run against 24 of the 28 teams. That is completely nuts.

Up next

The homestand is over and now the Yankees head out on a six-game road trip through Cleveland and Toronto. Here’s what’s coming between now and the next post:

• Friday at Guardians: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (7pm ET)

• Saturday at Guardians: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Triston McKenzie (6pm ET)

• Sunday at Guardians: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Logan Allen (1:30pm ET)

• Monday at Blue Jays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (7pm ET)

Three weekends into the season the Yankees will have played three Saturday night games. I remember when they played baseball in the afternoon on Saturdays. Anyway, the Guardians are 9-3 with a +35 run differential, though they haven’t played the toughest schedule (Athletics, Mariners, Twins, White Sox). Good work by them stacking wins against weak competition early in the season.

Carrasco is back with Cleveland and his first two starts haven’t gone well (8 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 9 K). He’s 37 now and he’s throwing less than 40% fastballs. At this point, he’s surviving with spin and changeups. Like the Yankees, the Guardians had an off-day Thursday, so they moved all their starters up. They still don’t know who will replace Shane Bieber in the rotation and used the off-day to push his spot back.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Doug asks: Why do the Yankees feel different this year? Lineup and bullpen decisions feel different this year. Is it too early in the season to judge that? If not, what do we credit that to? Better roster construction? The audit? Soto? Baseball randomness?

The winning certainly helps. The vibes are immaculate. Juan Soto’s and Alex Verdugo’s swagger have changed the team’s entire vibe. Mostly Soto, he’s on a different level because he’s so good, but there is something Swisherian about Verdugo, no? His boisterousness was needed, the same way the Yankees needed Nick Swisher to liven things up in 2009. The Yankees don’t seem as uptight.

To get to Doug’s point, yes, it does seem like the Yankees are operating differently this season. I shouldn’t even say it seems like they are, they definitely are. The other day I mentioned they’ve already used their “A” lineup more times this year than they used any lineup all of last season. I mean, look at Wednesday’s lineup:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Anthony Rizzo
6. 2B Gleyber Torres
7. LF Alex Verdugo
8. 3B Jon Berti
9. C Jose Trevino

The Yankees had already won the series and there was an off-day Thursday. In the past, that’s the kinda game Judge would sit, or at least DH. The Yankees love resting him the day before an off-day to give him two straight days off his feet, yet there he was, roaming center field. Same with just about all the other regulars. Series win in the bag with an off-day coming up? That called for the punt lineup in the past.

The Yankees have stuck with their “A” lineup even though Jon Berti and Trent Grisham are the two best bench players this team has had since … the end of 2019? After the regulars got healthy and guys like Cameron Maybin and Mike Tauchman moved to the bench? You’d think Berti and Grisham would lead to a less consistent lineup because the Yankees would want to get them in there, but nope. Grisham is a $5.5M bench player and he didn’t play during the homestand!

“It’s them talking to me, knowing there’s an empathy behind going from starting every day to coming in off the bench,” Grisham told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) about the lack of playing time. “They know that I’m going through an adjustment period. Just constantly checking in, asking me how I’m doing, where’s your mind at, that kind of stuff. That’s what makes it feel like I’m in it with everybody, even though I’m not getting in every day now. I know at some point in the season, I’m going to be needed.”

Some of the bullpen decisions have been aggressive too. The Yankees used Clay Holmes three times in four days right out of the gate in Houston, and pushed him into a second inning during the extra innings game in Arizona. Ian Hamilton’s usage kinda sorta feels like a setup guy who is being asked to get extra outs more than a true multi-inning role a la Mike King. The priority is that day’s win. Not the big picture.

Eventually the Yankees will throttle back (right?) and rest their regulars more – it is a long, long season – but right now, the pedal is on the floor. I’m not sure what brought this about, though my guess is the Yankees felt it was imperative to get off to a good start this season after last year (and with the fan base being restless). Also, they want Soto to fall in love with this place. A good first impression certainly helps.

Adam asks: Watching Clay Holmes the last couple years has got me thinking - do you think the Yankees have gotten to the point where they are prioritizing ground balls too much relative to strike outs? I understand pitchers with high ground ball rates are generally very desirable and that skill can be extremely useful in certain situations but I feel that relievers that miss bats/avoid bad BABIP luck have started to become a little undervalued by the Yankees. I understand they’re kind of zigging when others zag but do you think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction?

I do. And to be fair, Holmes had a 27.1% strikeout rate last year, which is very good. Overall though, the Yankees have really leaned into weak contact, and two weeks into this season the bullpen has an MLB worst 15.3% strikeout rate. I expect that to come up as the season progresses, but yes, this bullpen is designed to limit hard contact, not miss bats. A strikeout is still the best thing a pitcher can do, nothing bad can happen when the ball is not put in play, and other than Ian Hamilton and Holmes at his best, and maybe Nick Burdi, the Yankees don’t have a relief crew that is going to get outs without the help of the defense. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees prioritize keeping the ball in the park in the late innings. They want to avoid that one big swing that can turn the tide in a close game, and since even the best strikeout pitchers allow a lot of balls in play, focusing on weak contract does make sense. Still, it would be nice to have at least one guy you can count on to come in and throw fastballs by hitters in a jam, you know? (A Chad Green type, basically.)

Kevin asks: With Jordan Hicks moving from the bullpen to the rotation and starters being more expensive by the year, does it seem like other teams might follow suit and turn some relievers into five-and-fly guys for the sake of saving money? Perhaps it gives more life to guys like Clayton Beeter who could be a starter if teams are more willing to accept shorter starts.

Yep. I wrote about the reliever to starter thing at CBS a few weeks ago. The Yankees did it with Mike King last year. The Angels put Michael Lorenzen in the rotation two years ago, the Padres did it with Seth Lugo last year, the Rays with Zack Littell and Jeffrey Springs, etc.. This season there’s the Giants and Hicks, the Braves and Reynaldo López, and the Marlins and A.J. Puk. Turning relievers into starters is the new thing.

I’m sure cost efficiency factors into the equation – Hicks and López got paid pretty well, to be fair – but I think it mostly has to do with finding ways to cover innings. It gets harder and harder to cover 162 games worth of innings with each passing year because so many starters aren’t allowed to go through the lineup a third time and so many guys get hurt. Shorter starts and the max effort approach are taking their toll.

The Clayton Beeter and Luis Gil types – 100 pitches in five innings, etc. – definitely have more of a place in the game today than they did even 15-20 years ago. Back then, if you struggled to reliably give length, you were put in the bullpen. Now they’ll take those 4-5 innings even if they include a lot of walks, or they’ll take two innings and once through the order if that’s how you’re most effective.

Teams are a lot better at finding ways to get the most out of pitchers, and these days that includes moving relievers into the rotation. Legit high leverage guys too. Hicks closed for the Cardinals, López has spent the last few years as a one-inning setup man, etc. Teams are taking short relievers and making them starters. That doesn’t really apply to Beeter, though guys like him are more desirable than they were in the past.

Chris asks: You mentioned in your most recent post that there is not really a great solution to the pitcher injury concerns. What if MLB/MLBPA jointly created an upper velocity limit on pitches? In essence if a pitch is clocked at greater than some number (95mph?), the batter would have the option to accept the result if it's favorable or else be an automatic ball. It would be a significant departure from baseball tradition, but that has never stopped Rob Manfred before. While certain hard-throwing members of the MLBPA would vehemently oppose, the majority of the union members I think would be in favor? Hitters constitute roughly half of the union and would love it, and the pitchers who can't dial it up at high velocity also benefit from not losing opportunities to those hard-throwers. Owners should also largely be in favor since IL stints are wasted money and since more hitting leads to more eyeballs. What do you think?

Two things before I answer the question. First, Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) spoke to Dr. Keith Meister, one of the leading Tommy John surgeons, and he said they can tell who throws a sweeper because it causes a specific kind of tear in the ligament. “We’re getting very recognizable tear patterns as a consequence of this. You can look at a scan now and say, ‘Oh, this guy throws a sweeper,’” Meister said.

And second, Travis Sawchik did the research and found Tommy John surgeries aren’t actually up this year. February, March, and April are peak Tommy John surgery season because pitchers overdo their build up in Spring Training, but in the first 100 days of 2024, there have been nine MLB Tommy John surgeries and 16 in pro ball overall. Go back to 2000, and it was 10 in MLB and 17 in pro ball. Pitcher injuries in general may be up, but Tommy John surgery is at roughly the same level as the last 25 years.

Anyway, I thought that stuff was interesting. To answer the question, there is a 75 mph velocity limit in Major League Wiffle Ball (yes, that’s a thing), though they have that because it’s too hard to hit higher velocities, not because they’re trying to prevent injuries. There is some precedent for a pitch velocity limit. I’m just not sure how realistic it is in MLB. Can a pitcher really toe the line right at 95 mph or whatever the limit would be? Do they know exactly how much effort is required to throw 95 mph and no higher? Maybe they do!

The MLBPA would oppose such a rule because they don’t want to put a limit on player performance or skill set. The union was against the three-batter minimum because it got rid of lefty specialists and they would be against a pitch velocity limit because it works against hard throwers (and there are a lot more hard throwers than lefty specialists). To put it another way, the union believes pitchers should have the freedom to pitch max effort and potentially hurt themselves if that’s what they want to do. 

A pitch velocity limit doesn’t seem practical. I have no idea how to solve the pitcher injury problem, though it probably starts at the amateur level. Perfect Game has rankings and scouting reports and average velocities on 2028 draft-eligible players. Those kids are 14! Amateurs play and train year-round now, and they come into pro ball with more wear and tear on their arm. It kinda feels like the problem starts there. 

Dan asks: How do you think the players feel about having to play in Sacramento, both the home players and visiting ones?

I’m guessing they’re not fond of the idea. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) spoke to a few veteran players about playing in Sacramento rather than RingCentral Coliseum and the responses amounted to “it can’t be worse,” but yeah, it can. Former big leaguer Trevor Hildenberger, who played for Sacramento last season, had this to say after the Sacramento plan was announced:

League rules and the Collective Bargaining Agreement include all sorts of facility requirements, and Sutter Health Park in Sacramento will need upgrades to the lighting, the clubhouses, the workout areas, etc. The Blue Jays had to make similar upgrades when they played in Buffalo during the pandemic. Minimum standards have to be met and the MLBPA has to sign off on everything too. 

Even with the necessary upgrades, do big leaguers really want to play in a Triple-A park? I just can’t see it. Even coming through on a three-game road trip would stink. The “big leagues” should mean something. Once you’re in the show, you’re supposed to leave all that minor league stuff behind. If the Athletics pay up, players will play there, but give them a truth serum and I bet they tell you they won’t be happy about it. The bar can’t be “it's not as bad as the Coliseum.”

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)