April 5th, 2024: Judge, Verdugo, Gil, Bullpen, Minors, Mailbag

Good thing the Yankees opened the season on the road, huh? The Mets have been rained out three times already and the Yankees would have been too had they started the season with a seven-game homestand instead of a seven-game road trip. Also, just to circle back to something I said Monday, I have to admit I’m enjoying the new "Name that Yankee" game more since they’ve upped the difficulty. The first two games they gave us Randy Johnson and Aaron Boone, and I was worried they would be cupcakes all season. The last two were Mark Reynolds and David Dellucci, and that’s more in my wheelhouse. I wish they gave us "Name that Yankee" and trivia, but props to YES for quickly catering the new game to us sickos. Let’s get to today’s post as Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres get a 3am haircut.

1. Weekday thoughts. We’re all in agreement the 2023 Yankees would’ve gotten walked off by the pitcher on Wednesday, yes? Winning an extra innings game on the road might be the surest sign the 2024 Yankees are built different. They went 2-13 in road extra innings games from 2022-23. I would have been happy with a 4-3 trip and delighted with a 5-2 trip. 6-1? Hell yes. Not just 6-1 either. They went 6-1 against two very good teams, without Gerrit Cole, and without Aaron Judge doing much of anything until the seventh game. Good times. Here are a few thoughts on the Diamondbacks series.

Judge awakens (Verdugo too)

Now we just need Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres to do the same, though at least their OBPs start with a 3. Oswaldo Cabrera, Juan Soto, and Anthony Volpe were hitting a combined .444/.527/.714 (268 wRC+) in 74 plate appearances going into Wednesday’s game. Everyone else was hitting .153/.256/.204 (44 wRC+) in 160 plate appearances. It was a three-man army the first six games of the season.

The Yankees had three singles and three walks in Tuesday’s shutout loss. This was the lineup that night. The middle of the order had been very quiet through six games:

The regular 3-4-5-6 hitters hadn’t done much of anything, and I do mean regular. The Yankees used their “A” lineup throughout the road trip. Stanton sat for Trent Grisham twice, and Trevino caught three of seven games in part because there were two day games after a night game. Jon Berti has started one game, and it was only because Volpe was sick. For the most part, it’s been the same lineup day after day.

When was the last time we could say that about the Yankees? As recently as last year we might’ve seen three different lineups in a three-game series. This guy is scheduled for a rest day, that guy is a little beat up so we decided to sit him, that other guy hasn’t played in a while and we want to keep him involved, etc. Did you go 3-for-4 with a homer last night? Doesn’t matter. If it was your day to sit, you sat.

For whatever the reason the Yankees are operating with more urgency this season. We’ve seen the “A” lineup regularly, and even some of the bullpen decisions have been aggressive. I’m not sure the Yankees would've used Clay Holmes three times in four days right out of the gate in the past. It’s only seven games and one road trip, though it does feel like the Yankees haven’t been so rest-obsessed early on.

What brought this about? Is Aaron Boone managing to save his job? Are the Yankees operating this way because the organization feels pressure after last season? Am I crazy and making something out of nothing? All possible! I just know that Cabrera, Judge, Rizzo, Soto, Torres, and Verdugo have started every single game, and Volpe would have if he hadn’t gotten sick. I’m not sure that happens in the past.

Anyway, the Yankees swept Houston because Soto went nuclear, and because Cabrera got multiple key hits. The Yankees really need the rest of the lineup to start hitting though, and the rest of the lineup started to hit Wednesday. Judge awakened from his early season slumber with a game-tying two-run home run the other way and loud double in extra innings, also the other way (video). We’d been waiting for that. 

“It’s early in the season that you can get caught up as a player looking at the scoreboard and seeing where your average is,” Judge told Greg Joyce. “You see guys up there hitting .600 and you kinda get discouraged, but it’s part of the season. You’re going to get 600 at-bats. You go through some tough stretches. Those are minuscule compared to the whole season. It’s just about staying the course.”

Every Verdugo at-bat the first six games seemed to produce a weak pop up to shallow left field or a ground ball to the right side of the infield. That is what it looks like when he struggles. He just kinda throws the bat at the ball and produces a lot of weak contact. In the tenth inning Wednesday though, Verdugo got into 96.2 mph heater upstairs and just ate it (video). It is not easy to turn around 96 mph up here:

Before their big swings Wednesday, I thought Judge and Verdugo were having good at-bats overall. They just weren’t getting results. Rizzo and Gleyber too. I haven’t seen overmatched hitters. Judge fouled away or popped up more than a few center cut pitches the first six games. It was only a matter of time until one landed over the fence. The other three guys did good work grinding out at-bats. The hits just didn’t fall in. 

I felt it was only a matter of time until Judge and Verdugo broke through and I feel it is only a matter of time until Rizzo and Torres break through too. Stanton, on the other hand, looks pretty much exactly like he did last season, especially against velocity. Here are the five home runs he’s hit in 2024, Spring Training included (video):

• March 16th vs. Paolo Espino: 89.0 mph four-seamer

• March 20th vs. Marco Gonzales: 81.8 mph changeup

• March 20th vs. Marco Gonzales: 84.5 mph cutter

• March 20th vs. Marco Gonzales: 79.8 mph changeup

• March 29th vs. Brandon Bielak: 80.6 mph curveball

We’ve yet to see Stanton put a charge into anything with even a little hair on it. Giancarlo did slim down and make a few tweaks to his swing, but he had trouble catching up to 92-93 mph from Zac Gallen the other night, and he’s taking ugly hacks at sliders because he’s cheating fastball. Stanton could be hitting .395 via BABIP luck right now and I wouldn’t feel great given the quality of his swings and at-bats.

“I think he’s healthy. The life is there. The juice is there. It’s just a matter of getting him going,” Boone told Gary Phillips about Stanton earlier this week, echoing what he said about Josh Donaldson the last two years. “And even when G is at his very best, sometimes the outs aren’t always the prettiest. But as long as he’s healthy and firing, I feel like the bat speed and everything’s where it needs to be. It’s just about getting on time.”

The Yankees don’t need Stanton to win games but they do need Judge, Rizzo, Torres, and Verdugo. They did go 6-1 in seven games without those four doing much, sure, but that isn’t going to last. Judge’s timing seems to be there now and hopefully Verdugo’s home run gets him going. Now we just need Gleyber and Rizzo to follow suit. The at-bat quality has been good. I’m confident they’ll come around soon. Stanton? Not so much. Can’t do much more other than hope with him, and hope isn’t a good strategy.

(The Yankees have hit seven homers in seven games, and three of the seven came in an eight-batter span Saturday. It’s great they’ve been able to win games and score runs without relying on the long ball, but they will need to sock more dingers eventually. They’ll come once Judge, Rizzo, and Torres really get going.)

Gil’s changeup

Apparently Luis Gil is a changeup pitcher now? Well, no, he’s a fastball pitcher first and foremost, and it’s a great fastball. Upper-90s velocity – Gil hit 100.0 mph Monday, his fastest pitch ever recorded by Statcast – with top of the line induced vertical break. Hitters missed with eight of their 23 swings against his heater Monday, or 35%. That’s about as good as it gets for a starter, even within the context of one single game.

Gil also threw 17 changeups Monday. He threw 15 sliders. In 2021, he threw five changeups total in six MLB starts. The changeup was a point of emphasis throughout Spring Training and it appears it was not a spring mirage. Gil’s committed to it. On Monday, the changeup had less velocity and less spin than it did in 2021. It’s deader, for lack of a better term, and has more tumble downward.

“It’s a pitch that he’s developed a lot of confidence in,” Boone told Phillips about Gil’s changeup. “The ability to throw it for a strike, the ability to throw it in any count, which in turn even helps his fastball play a little bit more. And I would include the slider in there too. But having the ability to land that pitch and being unpredictable with it really helped that fastball play.”

That all said, Gil did not do a great job locating his changeup Monday. He threw it 17 times and hitters swung at only six, and they didn’t miss once. There were too many changeups up and far off the plate:

Throwing the changeup and throwing the changeup effectively are two different things, and Gil did the former more than the latter Monday. And that’s okay! The change wasn’t a reliable pitch for him in 2021, then he missed most of 2022 and 2023 with Tommy John surgery. This is all new for him. The shape of the pitch is different and he’s throwing it more than ever. Gil is still trying to master it.

Gil’s fastball and slider (mostly the fastball) are good enough to give him margin of error as he gains a feel for his new changeup. He pitched well Monday, striking out six and holding a good D’Backs team to one run on one hit and three walks in 4.2 innings (video), and it feels like there’s much more in the tank. Throwing strikes will never be his strength, but Gil has a chance to be really, really good in this league.

“We were all super pumped for him to be out there,” Austin Wells told Phillips. “He’s just very confident in who he is and his ability to get guys out. Having a guy on the mound like that, it’s a lot of fun to be behind the plate.”

(Pulling Gil one out shy of qualifying for the win is lame, but the Yankees have to protect the kid. Gil is coming off Tommy John surgery and he had an unusual spring build up because he wasn’t in the mix for a job until mid March. He threw 84 pitches Monday after topping out at 75 in the spring, and the 75 was in a simulated game. Wins matter to pitchers, so it sucks, but the Yankees had to prioritize the big picture.)

Hamilton and Holmes

It is crazy to me the Twins and White Sox (and Guardians!) had Ian Hamilton, looked at his slambio, and either tried to “fix” it or made him stop throwing it because it was unconventional. It didn’t work for him there, they all let him go, then the Yankees picked him up and said “you know that unique pitch of yours? go throw it over and over.” I guess there’s a reason the AL Central is the league’s doormat.

“Wow,” Boone told Joyce after Hamilton’s seven-up, eight-down (thanks to an inherited runner and a double play) performance on Wednesday (video). “That’s one of those where those guys haven’t seen him much at all and their swings showed it. Those are swings like, ‘What is that?’ It was a dominant performance and obviously a tremendous bridge to get us to the back. He’s been great all trip.”

Hamilton has been nails since Day 1 of Spring Training – 13.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 20 K between spring and the regular season – and now the Yankees are using him in this multi-inning role, which makes him even more valuable. They have their Mike King* replacement! Hamilton misses bats and also gets grounders, and he’s ruthlessly efficient too. He’s thrown only 61 pitches in 5.2 innings in the regular season.

* King walked seven batters in four innings in his first start the other day. What’s up with that? King’s high in any single ~month~ last season was seven walks.

As for Clay Holmes, he got two saves in Houston, but he gave up hard contact and needed his defense to bail him out a few times. Soto threw the tying run out at the plate last Thursday, then Berti made a diving stop at third and Verdugo made a sliding catch in left on Sunday. It’s a team sport and sometimes you need your teammates to bail you out, and Holmes did twice during the Astros series.

Wednesday was an absolute masterclass in weak contact, however, so of course that was the game Holmes got a blown save. He faced five batters in the tenth inning and look what they did (this is in reverse chronogical order, so the bottom line is the first batter of the inning):

Nothing hit hard and nothing that traveled even 10 feet in the air off the bat. And yet, a blown save thanks to the automatic extra innings runner, an errant throw from Volpe, and an infield single (the 49.2 mph batted ball). Hard contact leads to two saves in Houston and the bowling ball sinker at its best led to a blown save in Arizona. This sport is so stupid sometimes.

I can buy Hamilton being a better pitcher than Holmes right now, but I can’t get onboard with the “make Hamilton the closer” takes that are out there. Look how valuable Hamilton is as a multi-inning guy! If Holmes makes you nervous, I get it, so aren't you better off letting him start an inning clean, and letting Hamilton be the guy who gets you out of jams and/or matches up with the other team’s best hitters regardless of inning?

Anyway, the bullpen looked iffy on paper coming into the season, but after one road trip, that group has a 1.27 ERA (3.42 FIP) and leads the league with +0.5 WAR and ranks third with +1.86 WPA. Hamilton has been the standout, but Nick Burdi and Caleb Ferguson look like legit dudes, Holmes hopefully found his sinker Wednesday, and Jonathan Loáisiga looked great Wednesday too. The Matt Blake era Yankees and bullpens, man. They just make it work.

The bullpen carousel

First it was Clayton Beeter, then it was Tanner Tully, then it was Jake Cousins. Three relievers shuttled through one roster spot within the first five days of the regular season. Tully didn’t even pitch before getting DFAed. The Yankees traded for Cousins on Sunday and put him on the big league roster on Monday. He got hit around a bit in his Yankees debut Tuesday, but the stuff looks good, no? I thought so.

“Good slider, good sinker. Fits our profile,” Blake told Phillips about Cousins. “And then I think we can help him a little bit with just some of the visuals for throwing strikes. He had made some progress in Spring Training already. Velo had been up, strikes had been a little better, so hopefully something that can fit in our model a little bit.”

Considering he was added to the bullpen right away, my guess is Cousins had an upward mobility clause, which is different from an opt out. An opt out allows you to become a free agent. An upward mobility clause allows you to leave your minor league contract with one team to join another team that is willing to put you on their MLB roster.

That would explain why Cousins was added to the bullpen right away and also why the Yankees cut bait on Tully (they needed a roster spot), who was built up to 80 pitches or so, at a time when they needed a long reliever. Luke Weaver was the sacrificial lamb Monday and it would have been nice to have Tully around for Tuesday too. If the Yankees could have sent Cousins to Triple-A, they would have, but they couldn’t.

(Cousins has an option and the Yankees can send him down now. The upward mobility clause does not mean he has to stay in the big leagues the rest of the season. You can’t skip a step and immediately option him though. Cousins had to go on the 26-man roster first. So, to clear both 26-man and 40-man spots, Tully was DFAed. Tully cleared waivers and is still with the Yankees as a non-40-man player.)

In addition to adding Cousins, the Yankees also signed righty Phil Bickford to a minor league deal earlier this week. He gets $1.1M at the MLB level, per Jon Heyman. Similar to J.D. Davis, Bickford received only 45 days termination pay (about $217,000 of a $900,000 salary) after being released by the Mets because they went to an arbitration hearing. If he gets called up early enough, he’ll come out ahead financially.

Anyway, Bickford had a nice enough year with the Dodgers in 2022 (2.81 ERA and 3.93 FIP) and is a 95-and-a-slider guy. The Yankees signed him because they lost Nick Ramirez (DFAed and then traded to the Dodgers for cash) and they could have lost Tully, and also because Tommy Kahnle’s build up is not going well. He’s had trouble recovering from a recent live batting practice session.

“He’s back in his throwing program,” Boone told Joyce earlier this week. “I don’t know how long that slows him.”

It seems to get harder to navigate 162 games worth of innings with each passing year, and it doesn’t help that the Yankees are without their innings-munching ace. One week into the new season, they’ve already cycled through multiple last guy in the bullpen types, and have been active replenishing their Triple-A depth. I can’t say I expect this to stop anytime soon. It’s just a constant churn of fringe roster arms now..

Miscellany

Through two starts Nestor Cortes has allowed six runs in two first innings and one run in eight innings after the first inning. Tuesday night was his first time starting on normal rest this year (including Spring Training) and it showed. Nestor’s velocity was down 1-2 mph …

… and his stuff wasn’t crisp at all. Only three swings and misses on 88 pitches (40 swings) and one was a check swing. Cortes didn’t get his first legit swing and miss until his 70th pitch. Give him credit for settling down after his rough first inning, but the rough first innings need to stop. Also, if that’s how his stuff will look on normal rest moving forward, it’s a problem … Carlos Rodón was good Wednesday. I think? Two solo home runs in 5.1 innings is plenty good enough to win, but nine baserunners is too many. At some point his 98.7% strand rate is going to regress (it was 78.0% from 2021-22) and it will be ugly. I just don’t understand why Rodón has stopped missing bats. Seven whiffs on 95 pitches (45 swings) on Wednesday – the same number of whiffs Hamilton got during his 27-pitch outing in relief of Rodón – after 11 whiffs on 87 pitches (48 swings) in his first start. His 9.9% swinging strike rate through two starts is down from 12.5% last year and way down from 14.5% from 2021-22. At least Rodón is healthy and pitching. That’s an improvement over where he was at this time last year (he leads the league in Stuff+ and is near the bottom in Location+, what a confusing pitcher) … Three errant throws already for Volpe (video). What’s up with that? Clean it up, Tony … And finally, just in case anyone is wondering what I thought, of course the Yankees were right to intentionally walk Gabriel Moreno to load the bases for the pitcher in the 11th inning Wednesday. That was a no-brainer. Throw strikes and you’ll get the out. Ferguson did and that was it. The Yankees did something similar in that 18-inning game at Wrigley Field in 2017. They intentionally walked Rizzo to load the bases for the pitcher with two outs, and Chasen Shreve struck out Kyle Hendricks to end the game. You always always always face the pitcher over the actual hitter if you have a choice.

Up next

The home opener. It’s been too long since baseball was last played in the Bronx. The last game at Yankee Stadium was that dramatic comeback against the D'Backs in the rain (this game). Between the 6-1 start and Soto, the stadium should be electric Friday. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post (the opposing starters after Friday are officially TBA, but this is who lines up):

• Friday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi (1pm ET)

• Saturday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (7pm ET)

• Sunday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Bowden Francis (1:30pm ET)

• Monday vs. Marlins: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (6pm ET)

Monday was originally a 2pm ET start, but the Yankees pushed it back to 6pm ET because of the solar eclipse. It will take place in New York from 2:10pm until 4:39pm and the Bronx is not in this thing called the “path of totality,” so it won’t go completely dark. They were going to try to play with the lights on, but I guess they decided against it, and pushed the game back a few hours. So it goes.

The Blue Jays are 2-4 and were no-hit and one-hit in Houston earlier this week. The Astros are 2-0 when they hold their opponent to one hit or fewer, and 0-5 in all other games. Gausman had a shoulder thing in Spring Training and is behind in his build up. He threw only 69 pitches in his first start and probably won’t go more than 80 pitches Saturday. Old pal Isiah Kiner-Falefa is 4-for-16 with four singles early on.

“I think it’s going to be rocking. The fans are going to be excited,” Judge told Bob Nightengale about coming home to Yankee Stadium. “The boys are going to be ready to go. It’s just after starting off playing in the domes and some warmer weather, it’s going to be a shock going back to New York."

2. Minor league rosters announced. The Yankees opened their season last Thursday, Triple-A Scranton opened their season last Friday, and Double-A Somerset, High-A Hudson Valley, and Low-A Tampa all open their seasons later today. The minor league season will be in full swing in a few hours. Well, except rookie ball. That’s still a few weeks away. Point is, prospect watching season is underway.

We tackled the Triple-A Opening Day roster earlier this week and the Double-A, High-A, and Low-A Opening Day rosters were announced a few days ago. Let’s dig into them now.

Double-A Somerset Patriots

• Top 30 Prospects: OF Spencer Jones (No. 2), C/1B Ben Rice (No. 11), LHP Brock Selvidge (No. 18), C Agustin Ramirez (No. 19), RHP Zach Messinger (No. 29)

• Not Top 30 Prospects: none

• Fallen Prospects: OF Elijah Dunham, RHP Trystan Vrieling

• Prospects to Know: RHP Jack Neely, RHP Danny Watson

Indeed, Rice is returning to Somerset despite turning 25 in February and hitting .327/.401/.648 (182 wRC+) in 222 plate appearances at this level last season. Still surprised by that. Anyway, Somerset is this year's most stacked Opening Day roster, prospect-wise. Jones is the best healthy prospect in the organization and Selvidge is poised for a breakout season. He starred in Spring Breakout.

Jones and Rice (and Ramirez) will make for an exciting lineup. Jones got into 13 Grapefruit League games and performed loudly – .444/.583/.722 with one homer and more walks (five) than strikeouts (three) – plus he went deep twice in Spring Breakout. Josh Norris (subs. req’d) says Jones was among the prospects who impressed scouts most this spring:

Power was never a question for Jones, who was New York’s 2022 first-rounder, out of Vanderbilt. Rather, scouts questioned if he would make enough contact to get the most out of his tools. This spring, those same scouts saw a simpler swing that closed a few of his holes and helped him better manage what will always be a large strike zone. Specifically, he removed an arm bar that mitigated the way he could manipulate his barrel. Now, free to get the bat to more sectors of the zone, Jones looks primed for a breakout. 

I’m looking forward to seeing how Selvidge and Vrieling handle fairly aggressive promotions. Selvidge made 14 starts (and one relief appearance behind a rehabbing Tommy Kahnle) in Low-A last season and only nine starts in High-A. The Yankees have deemed him ready for Double-A. Considering Selvidge doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until Nov. 2025, Double-A is an aggressive Opening Day assignment.

The Yankees are pushing Vrieling to Double-A for what amounts to his pro debut. The 2022 third rounder missed the entire 2023 regular season with a broken elbow, though he got healthy in time to go to the Arizona Fall League, and his velocity was up in Spring Training. The Yankees are skipping him over Low-A and High-A. Vrieling must’ve looked razor sharp in minor league camp to get that assignment.

Also, take note of Seigler’s position. He’s an infielder now. The No. 23 pick in the 2018 draft played some second base out of necessity for Somerset last year (he even played a little outfield), and it appears the conversion is permanent. Seigler is a non-prospect these days – he hasn’t hit and his defense behind the plate didn’t progress – though catcher to second base is certainly an unusual career move, especially as late as Double-A.

Under-the-radar prospect: OF Jared Wegner. The 2023 ninth round pick was the oldest player drafted last year (he turns 25 in July) and he hit .275/.341/.513 (125 wRC+) in 24 games at three levels after signing. Wegner’s a big time exit velocity guy and he has a chance to become a righty hitting platoon corner outfielder if things come together. Wouldn’t shock me if he’s in Scranton come July.

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

• Top 30 Prospects: LHP Kyle Carr (No. 14), IF Jared Serna (No. 22), 2B Roc Riggio (No. 23)

• Not Top 30 Prospects: none

• Fallen Prospects: OF Anthony Hall, SS Alex Vargas

• Prospects to Know: C/1B Rafael Flores

Carr, last year’s third rounder, will start his pro career in High-A like LHP Ken Waldichuk did in 2021, RHP Will Warren did in 2022, and RHP Chase Hampton did in 2023. He’s on breakout watch. Carr supposedly lit up minor league camp last month, and the Yankees are jumping the 21-year-old over Low-A like their most recent breakout pitchers. He is the most interesting prospect on an otherwise meh roster.

Other than Carr, the pitching staff is mostly late round picks (Ayers, Gilbert, Keane) and undrafted free agents (Sellers, Shields, Stuart). Schlittler was one of those build-a-pitcher mid-round picks (seventh round in 2022, one round after Hampton), though it didn’t come together for him last season. Maybe it will this year. Fristoe had some buzz in Spring Training because he was throwing hard.

Riggio and Serna are both profile second basemen, though the Yankees had Riggio play some shortstop last season, so maybe they plan to give him more time there. Might as well, right? Hall was a fourth round pick in 2022 and he hurt his hand/wrist in his first pro at-bat that year. He did well with the automated strike zone in Low-A last season (127 wRC+). Not so much in High-A (63 wRC+). Important year for him.

Under-the-radar prospect: RHP Brian Hendry. Last year’s tenth round pick returned from Tommy John surgery last spring and threw 36.2 innings at Oklahoma State. He’s further removed from surgery now and it’s power stuff (mid-90s gas, high spin curveball). The Yankees brought Hendry over to big league camp to throw live batting practice at least once this spring, so they like him and they trust him to throw strikes (the last thing you need is some Single-A kid plunking Aaron Judge or Juan Soto).

Low-A Tampa Tarpons

• Top 30 Prospects: SS Roderick Arias (No. 6), SS George Lombard Jr. (No. 8), IF Enmanuel Tejeda (No. 21), RHP Luis Serna (No. 26)

• Not Top 30 Prospects: RHP Cade Smith

• Fallen Prospects: none

• Prospects to Know: none

What an infield. Arias turned 19 in September and Lombard doesn’t turn 19 until June, yet they’re going to Low-A. They’ll be among the youngest players at the level. Tejeda’s only 19 too. He turned 19 in December. Those three are all natural shortstops, but they’ll all move around the infield and see some time at second and third base. It’s the only way to get all three into the lineup together, really.

OF Willy Montero has emerged as the best Montero the Yankees signed during the 2021 international signing period. They gave IF Hans Montero a $1.7M bonus and OF Fidel Montero a $500,000 bonus (I don’t know what Willy’s bonus was). Fidel has stalled out, and while Hans performed in rookie ball last year (127 wRC+), Willy is the better prospect at this point, not that he’s a deep sleeper or anything. As far as I know the various Monteros are not related.

Serna started one of the Mexico City games and pitched very well the first time through the lineup. Not so much thereafter. He’s healthy though, which is important. He wasn’t last year. With his changeup, Serna could put up some really great numbers in Low-A. Smith could break out as a mid-round (sixth round in 2023) build-a-pitcher prospect the way they sometimes do with the Yankees.

Also, fun fact: Bow was the first and is still the only player born in Iceland to get drafted (14th round in 2022), and he would be the first ever big league player from Iceland if he makes it. He was born in Reykjavik and grew up in Las Vegas.

Under-the-radar prospect: RHP Josh Grosz. In last year’s draft recap, I said Grosz seemed like a “prime ‘get on a weighted ball program to boost velocity, and here’s how to throw a sweeper’ candidate,” and that’s pretty much exactly what happened. Word is he lived in the mid-90s this spring, up from the low-90s at East Carolina last spring, and showed an improved changeup and slider. We’ll see whether it amounts to anything this summer.

LHP Allen Facundo is worth a mention too. The 21-year-old from Venezuela struck out 40 batters in 30.1 rookie ball innings last year thanks to a mid-90s fastball with impressive carry up in the zone. The breaking ball is a work in progress. Probably a reliever long-term, but Facundo’s stuff is consistent with the kinda lefties who go up-and-down for a few years and get claimed on waivers four times in one offseason.

Notable omissions (and a note on rookie ball)

A whopping 14 of my Top 30 Prospects are not on minor league Opening Day rosters: OF Jasson Domínguez (No. 1), C Austin Wells (No. 3), RHP Chase Hampton (No. 5), LHP Henry Lalane (No. 7), IF Jorbit Vivas (No. 9), OF Brando Mayea (No. 10), RHP Luis Gil (No. 12), RHP Clayton Beeter (No. 15). RHP Carlos Lagrange (No. 17), IF Keiner Delgado (No. 20), RHP Sabier Marte (No. 24), OF John Cruz (No. 25), RHP Jordarlin Mendoza (No. 27), and C Antonio Gomez (No. 30). We can put them into four buckets:

• MLB: Beeter (before being demoted), Gil, Wells 

• Traded: Cruz (for Jon Berti)

• Injured: Domínguez, Gomez, Hampton, Vivas 

• Extended Spring Training: Delgado, Lagrange, Lalane, Marte, Mayea, Mendoza

El Marciano is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Hampton has a UCL sprain and Vivas a broken orbital bone, and I don’t know what’s wrong with Gomez. All I know is he’s on High-A Hudson Valley’s 60-day injured list, so we won’t see him anytime soon. RHP Brendan Beck (elbow surgery), RHP Sean Hermann (Tommy John surgery), IF Tyler Hardman (Tommy John surgery), and RHP Justin Lange (unknown) are other notables on the injured list.

The ExST group will start showing up either in Low-A Tampa later this month, or in the Florida Complex League or Dominican Summer League when their seasons begin in a few weeks. I’m surprised Delgado is not in Low-A, but someone was going to get squeezed out of that infield, and it’s him. Also, Mayea is in ExST, not at the complex in the Dominican Republic. He’ll be in the FCL when the season begins in a few weeks, not back in the DSL.

On that note, the rookie ball schedule has been moved up. J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports the Arizona and Florida Complex League seasons will run from May 4th to July 25th this year. In the past their seasons ran from early June through late August. Teams are expected to hold informal workouts and games after the rookie ball seasons end. They’ll restart Extended Spring Training, basically.

MLB and the 30 teams got together and decided to move the rookie ball seasons up for several reasons, including not wanting players to play outdoors in the Arizona heat and Florida humidity in August. But also, teams are worried they won’t have enough pitching to run the leagues through the end of August. Drafted pitchers all get shut down now, and there are fewer arms capable of pitching that deep into the year.

On one hand, it’s good they’re protecting (very) young pitchers. On the other hand, we’re just shifting more and more toward smaller workloads, and starting pitchers being replaced by a series of 2-4 inning pitchers. As I’ve gotten older, the aesthetic component of baseball has become more important to me, and the daily parade of relievers is such a drag. The change to the rookie ball schedule will only fuel that more.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees were among the teams to scout Chiba Lotte Marines righty Roki Sasaki during his season debut the other day, according to a Yahoo! Japan report. He struck out seven in five innings of one-run ball (video). Sasaki wants to be posting this coming offseason but we still don’t know if he actually will. The Marines want him to wait another two years until he’s 25 and no longer subject to the international bonus pools, which will net them a much larger posting fee (and him a much larger contract). No matter when Sasaki comes over, I don’t expect the Yankees to sign him. He has Dodgers written all over him. "Every team in baseball wants this guy but there's no way he's going anywhere else but the Dodgers. We all know it,” an unnamed GM told Bob Nightengale recently … Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the 0-8 Marlins could sell sooner rather than later. I don’t know if he’s speculating, or if this is something he knows will happen but can’t explicitly report it. The Marlins are worth a deep dive as a trade partner at some point, though the top candidates are obvious: Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesús Luzardo, Tanner Scott, etc. I’m not quite sure what the Yankees would do with Arraez, who played some third base in the past but wasn’t very good there, but he’s the kinda hitter you try to find a way to make it work. Every team will want Luzardo. Will be tough to win that bidding war … And finally, the Athletics will play in Sacramento from 2025-27. It’s official. Their lease at RingCentral Coliseum expires after the season and their new ballpark in Las Vegas won’t be ready until 2028 at the earliest, so they’re moving into a Triple-A stadium. Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) says the team will simply go by “The Athletics.” They won’t be the Sacramento Athletics or the California Athletics or the Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento or anything like that. Just “The Athletics.” The A’s badly need a new stadium, but it sucks it’s happening like this. I feel for the fans in Oakland who are having their team ripped away by a cruel and inept owner – John Fisher said Thursday he can’t wait to see players like Aaron Judge hit home runs in Sacramento, and I can only assume he said Judge because he can’t name a player on the team he owns – and I also feel for the fans in Las Vegas who will soon be stuck with him. The Yankees will make their final trip to Oakland from Sept. 20-22. Maybe we’ll get one more wild and memorable Yankees-A’s game in the Coliseum before they close the place. (This isn’t the Blue Jays playing in Buffalo during the pandemic. The fact a team is electing to play in a Triple-A stadium for three years should embarrass the hell out of MLB. Being in the big leagues should mean something, and yet.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Joe asks: How much of the team’s early offensive success/approach do you attribute to hitting coaches? Normally I lean to “hardly any” since I believe coaches’ impact is always overstated, but there’s no denying a team-wide change in how they control ABs. Some have said it’s the “Soto Effect” but can’t help to think the coaches deserve some props here if this many guys seem to have found a rhythm early.

I’m sure the coaches deserve some credit. How much is impossible to say, in part because the Yankees have several new players and in part because it’s only been seven games. Are we sure this new approach is legit? Or is it just a good week? I dunno. The Yankees went 24 innings with nothing but an Aaron Judge two-run homer at one point in Arizona. That felt very 2023 Yankees-y.

I’m going to go on a mini-rant about wearing down the opposing starter. The Yankees have done it well thus far – opposing starters are averaging 5.1 innings in seven games – but the game has changed, and that approach does not work as well as it did even 10 years ago. The late 1990s dynasty was built on getting the starter out of the game and beating up on the weak underbelly of the bullpen.

That does not work as well nowadays for two reasons. One, starters are often removed because they are about to go through the lineup a third time, not because they’ve reached their pitch limit. How often do we see a guy pulled at 70-75 pitches because he faced his 18-20 batters, and isn’t allowed to go any deeper? It happens all the time. Batters faced, not pitch count, is the important number for many starters.

And two, the weak underbelly of the bullpen isn’t so weak these days. It seems like every bullpen is full of ogres throwing 100 mph, or guys with funky arm angles and sliders that break two feet. Monday night the Yankees forced Ryne Nelson to throw 76 pitches in 2.2 innings. They then had three hits and a walk in 6.1 innings against the bullpen. I’d rather Nelson have stayed in the game! Good thing they scored five runs against him.

That isn’t to say grinding out at-bats and wearing down the opposing starter isn’t good. It obviously is, especially in the first game of the series, when it affects reliever availability the next few days. I just think the reasoning is often misplaced. The more pitches you force the pitcher to throw and the more fatigue sets in, the more likely he is to make a mistake. That’s what you want, mistakes. Not getting to the bullpen, necessarily.

Guy asks: What should we know about Jahmai Jones/what can we anticipate from him this year? I don't expect much from our hitting development folks but is there anything from Jones' prospect days that could be tapped into? 

For all intents and purposes, Jones is a placeholder until DJ LeMahieu (or Oswald Peraza?) returns. The Yankees got him off waivers from the Brewers in February and, even after the Jon Berti trade, Jones made the Opening Day roster because LeMahieu and Peraza are hurt. He’s appeared in one game so far, going 0-for-1 with a strikeout and playing 2.2 innings at second base last Friday, after Gleyber Torres took that pitch to the thumb.

Jones, 26, was a bottom of the top 100 prospect with the Angels back in 2018. That was after hitting .282/.348/.446 (121 wRC+) between the two Single-A levels in 2017. Jones never really did take that next step though, and he’s bounced around on waivers the last few years. He’s a career .176/.231/.224 (24 wRC+) hitter in 91 big league plate appearances. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote in Feb. 2022:

Jones has been lauded for his tools since he was selected in the second round of the 2015 draft and while he began to tap into his raw power in 2021, his game still hasn’t really come together and his brief big league stint inspired more questions than answers about his future. Jones has always enticed with his combination of plus speed and strength. He’s an eye-catching athlete, but it hasn’t all translated into baseball ability. He can impact a baseball, but some length in his swing creates contact issues and big league pitchers were able to blow him away with good velocity. For the most part, his power surge has come against left-handed pitching, while righties can still tie him up on the inner half. He’s been shuttled between second base and the outfield as a pro and while he’s capable of flashy plays in the dirt, he also boots too many routine plays and lacks the quality jumps needed to be effective in center field. The upside is here for a permanent big league role, but it’s looking more and more like an up-and-down career is in the cards for Jones.

The Yankees gave Jones a few innings at third base in Spring Training after Peraza got hurt and I imagine they only see him as an emergency option there. The short version is he’s a righty platoon guy who can put a charge into a mistake while playing second base and the corner outfield spots competently. Jones offers more upside than the usual 39th or 40th man on the 40-man roster, but he kinda is what he is.

Peraza is supposedly ahead of schedule with his rehab – Greg Joyce says he started a throwing program Wednesday, only four weeks after he was shut down 6-8 weeks – though he’s still a few weeks away. LeMahieu? Who knows. They’ll see what his next follow up exam says and go from there. Jones looks like the break glass in case of emergency last guy on the bench who gets DFAed when LeMahieu or Peraza gets healthy.

Adam asks: Matt Gage. Don’t you think it’s odd that the Dodgers released him outright rather than at least attempting to work out a trade? It wasn’t long ago the Yankees were able to extract value for him (alongside Zazueta) after all. Kinda makes me worried it might be some kind of off the field reason that pushed them to just cut him immediately. That aside, I think the Yankees should definitely pursue a minor league pact with him so he could essentially assume Nick Ramirez’s old role as Ferguson/Gonzalez insurance except as a non-40 man roster player. Thoughts?

The Dodgers released Gage, who they got from the Yankees in the Caleb Ferguson trade, earlier this week to clear a 40-man roster spot for a waiver claim (Taylor Trammell). Gage was on the Triple-A 7-day injured list at the time. I don’t know of any off-the-field or clubhouse issues, and without knowing everything about the Dodgers and their roster situation, I suspect this has to do with the new 165-player limit.

Back in the day teams could have as many players under contract as they wanted. There was no limit. But, as part of MLB’s minor league takeover in 2020 and 2021, the league implemented a 180-player limit, and that was reduced to 165 players starting this year as part of the new minor league Collective Bargaining Agreement. The players get better pay and housing, and owners get to pay fewer players.

The 165-player limit covers Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, Low-A, and rookie ball in Arizona or Florida. It does not include the Dominican Summer League, which is one reason why you see some players repeat that level. The team is not ready to bring them stateside and have them count against their player limit. Players on the 60-day injured list do not count against the 165-player limit. All others do. The 165-limit amounts to 33 players per level, short-term injuries included. It’s really not many players at all.

My guess is the Dodgers were right at 165 players and expected to lose Gage on waivers anyway (he got claimed twice and traded once this past offseason, after all), so they released him to open up a spot against the 165-player limit. That spot went to Nick Ramirez, who the Yankees traded to the Dodgers for cash a few hours after Los Angeles released Gage. They released the injured lefty to make room for the healthy lefty.

Trammell went right on the Dodgers’ MLB roster to replace the injured Jason Heyward. He doesn’t count against the 165-player limit because he’s in the big leagues. From afar, it seems likely the Dodgers were up against the 165-player limit and needed healthy players. This is going to happen a bunch now. You can only carry so many fringe guys on the 7-day injured before you run out of healthy players, so injured guys will get released.

As for Gage returning to the Yankees, sure, why not? Assuming they have the roster space, of course, and assuming his injury isn’t serious. The Yankees obviously like something about Gage, there’s a reason they claimed him in the offseason, and if you can bring him back on a minor league deal after trading him for Ferguson, great! Do it. Will it happen? No idea, but I’d be cool with it.

(The Dodgers probably shouldn’t have traded all their good lefty relievers to the Yankees, huh? Alex Vesia hasn’t been all that effective since last year, and the only other lefties on their 40-man roster are Ramirez and long man Ryan Yarbrough. Thanks for Victor González and Caleb Ferguson, guys.)

Matt asks: So it’s only one game so far but — what do we think of the new road jerseys? I wasn’t sure I would notice but immediately when the game started the jerseys felt weird. Second part- seriously what is up with the quality? You could see Judge soaked through his jersey and it’s not even April. What will happen in Mid July?

I love the new look. Blue lettering on gray jerseys with no white outline is really sharp. The sweat stains are very bad though. The new jerseys are designed to be more breathable and lightweight, and as I understand it, part of that is wicking moisture away from the player’s body. So these sweat stains mean the jerseys are working as intended. It’s just ugly and gross. Nike says they're looking into it, so we'll see what happens.

Also, the small name plates make the jerseys look like a giveaway item, not a Major League uniform. We don’t have to deal with that because the Yankees don’t have names on their jerseys, but you can see it with the opponent, and it’s noticeable. Improving uniforms so they’re more breathable and lightweight and whatever else is a worthy endeavor. But geez, do they have to look so amateurish?

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)