March 26th, 2024: Gil, Beeter, Burdi, LeMahieu, Rizzo, Bench, Mexico City

Spring Training is over and the regular season is a few days away. I’ll miss the chill afternoon games, but I’m ready for baseball that counts. The Yankees are off Tuesday and Wednesday, then they’ll begin the regular season Thursday afternoon in Houston. Here are the pitching matchups for the season-opening four-game series at Minute Maid Park:

• Thursday (4pm ET on YES): LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Framber Valdez

• Friday (8pm ET on Apple TV+): LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Christian Javier

• Saturday (7pm ET on FOX): RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Hunter Brown

• Sunday (2pm ET on YES): RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. TBA

A four-game series with four different start times on three different networks. Baseball is truly back. Ronel Blanco and J.P. France will be Houston’s No. 4 and 5 starters. They just haven’t announced the order yet. The Yankees will see one of those two righties Sunday. Anyway, here are my 2024 bold predictions (which I’ve been told aren’t very bold, sorry about that) and here now is today’s post.

1. Opening Day roster taking shape. Some years the Opening Day roster comes together nicely and there are no mysteries at the end of Spring Training. This is not one of those years. Injuries and general roster shenanigans have created several questions, and the answers the Yankees have given are only tentative. Here’s the latest on the Opening Day roster.

Gil named No. 5 starter

Luis Gil, who Aaron Boone recently admitted was not considered an Opening Day roster candidate coming into Spring Training, will be the No. 5 starter to begin the regular season. He beat out top pitching prospect Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, and to a lesser extent journeymen Cody Poteet and Luke Weaver. Boone said roster status (Warren’s not on the 40-man roster) had nothing to do with the decision. I buy it.

“Obviously you never want to see Gerrit go down, but I’m excited about the people that emerged and legitimately put their name in that conversation up until late,” Boone told Bryan Hoch. “I feel like the way Luis is throwing the ball – really from the jump – he’s certainly earned that with how he’s performed. We continue to be really excited about what he can be as a starting pitcher.”

Gil won the No. 5 spot fair and square. He had a terrific spring (11.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 18 K, 2 HR) and threw the ball very well. I thought Warren pitched well too outside that one disastrous inning against the Red Sox last week, but Gil really was electric, and it’s hard to quibble with the decision. Gil gets the first crack at being Gerrit Cole’s replacement, and if he falters, it’ll be Warren’s turn.

(Warren’s final spring start was about as impressive as zero strikeouts in five innings can be: 13 grounders on 17 balls in play with an average exit velocity under 84 mph. The Yankees are all about pitchers who generate weak contact on the ground, so it’s no surprise they love Warren.)

Because this is Gil’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery, the Yankees built him up slowly this spring. He threw only four innings and 63 pitches in his most recent outing last Friday. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gil stays behind in Tampa and throws a 75-ish pitch simulated game Wednesday. That would allow him to build up a little more and keep him in line to start the fifth game of the season on normal rest.

Joel Sherman says the Yankees are not putting an innings limit on Gil, whose career high is the 108.2 innings he threw in 2021. They’ll track his pitch and biomechanical data, look for signs of fatigue, and adjust as necessary. This is something to worry about later in the summer. If Gil hits a wall, the Yankees will deal with it when the time comes. For now, he looks great, and he looks ready to be the No. 5 starter.

“I feel like the way we’re able to monitor and measure guys’ output and what they’re able to do not only on the mound, but in between starts. gives us a more clear idea than in the past, when you just jump up this many (innings),” Boone told Greg Joyce. “We’re in a better position to make better calls on that. So it may turn into an innings limit, it may get to that point, but we’re not going in setting any innings limit.”

Brian Cashman told Joyce that Cole will go on the 60-day injured list when they need a 40-man roster spot, so the Yankees don’t expect their ace to return any earlier than May 28th. Gil gets the first opportunity to replace Cole and Warren is presumably next in line. The Yankees will lean on those two either until Cole returns, or until things become untenable. A Jordan Montgomery signing just isn’t gonna happen.

I’m happy for Gil and I hope his improved strike-throwing this spring (still a 9.8% walk rate, but at least it’s not 13.7% like his minor league career) is real improvement, and not a blip. There’s real upside here. Gil has a chance to be more than just a guy who gives you innings. Let’s hope we’re sitting here in 10 weeks wondering how the Yankees can keep Gil in the rotation when the reigning AL Cy Young winner returns.

“They should have (named Gil the No. 5 starter),” a scout told Erik Boland. “That was some of the best shit I saw all spring … If he keeps pitching like he has, he won’t be the one to lose his rotation spot when Cole is back.”

Beeter and Burdi make the bullpen (tentatively)

The Opening Day pitching staff is just about set. Gil is in the rotation, and as long as no one better pops up on waivers or on the opt out market these next few days, Clayton Beeter and Nick Burdi will fill the bullpen spots vacated by Scott Effross and Tommy Kahnle. Beeter and Burdi will join Caleb Ferguson, Victor González, Ian Hamilton, Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Luke Weaver in the bullpen.

“They said I won the spot internally pending whatever happens in the next few days. But I guess nothing official yet. I just know I’m going to Houston,” Beeter told Gary Phillips. “... I came in here with the goal of trying to be more efficient, throw more strikes, and really just let my stuff play, and I think I did pretty well at that. I feel like I’ve shown I can help for sure.”

Beeter was theoretically in the running for the No. 5 spot, though he never got talked up the way Gil and Warren did. The writing was on the wall when the Yankees had Beeter enter Saturday’s game in the middle of an inning. That was “something we wanted to check off the list,” acting manager Brad Ausmus told Phillips. Beeter closed as a freshman in college, but he’s been a starter throughout his time in the minors.

The Yankees open the season in Houston and Beeter’s from Fort Worth. I imagine he’ll have a lot of friends and family in town for that first series, and I hope he gets to pitch in front of them in a non-Yankees blowout loss situation. Beeter got up to four innings and 71 pitches Saturday. He’s nice and stretched out should the Yankees need someone to give them length early in the season.

"I don't mind it. I've done it before,” Beeter told Phillips about working out of the bullpen. “Obviously everyone wants to be a starter, but if there's a way to help the team as a reliever, then I'm all for it."

As for Burdi, he looked great this spring and his numbers were strong (7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 13 K), and the Yankees had him get four outs for the first time Sunday. Getting more than three outs is another one of those boxes teams like to check before the end of spring. Holmes and Loáisiga are ground ball guys. Burdi gives the Yankees a right-handed bat-misser, and I thought they were missing one of those in the bullpen.

I said this a few weeks ago: Burdi has a long injury history and you don’t know how long this will last. Put him in the bullpen and don’t waste these bullets in Triple-A. Also, Sherman says Burdi has an April 15th opt out. That’s soon, and with the way Burdi’s throwing the ball, of course he’ll opt out. The opt out is another reason to put him on the roster. Burdi has options. The Yankees can always shuttle him to Triple-A later.

On that note, Kahnle is doing well as he works his way back from shoulder inflammation. He threw his third simulated game of the spring Sunday, and the original timetable had him getting into games the first week of the season. Seems like he’s on track to do that. Kahnle could return 2-3 weeks into the season. Who the Yankees send down for Kahnle will depend as much on their needs (Beeter as a long man?) as performance.

LeMahieu, Rizzo, and the bench

Probably not great that the two corner infield spots are question marks two days before Opening Day. DJ LeMahieu fouled a pitch into his foot on March 16th and hasn’t played since, and he will start the season on the injured list. Cashman said so Monday. LeMahieu has a bone bruise and although he’s been going through light workouts, he’s not progressing quick enough to be ready for Thursday.

“It’s just a little bit slow go on the recovery side. He banged that up pretty good,” Cashman told Phillips on Monday. “... It hasn’t really responded quick enough. At this stage, he’s not going to be ready for Opening Day. We’re not officially ILing him today, but he won’t be ready to start the season.”

Injured list stints can be backdated up to three days even on Opening Day. The Yankees begin the season with seven games in seven days, so they can put LeMahieu on the injured list and backdate it, then have him available for the eighth game of the season on April 5th. That’s the home opener. Of course, that will depend on LeMahieu’s recovery. Bone bruises are nasty and can take time to heal.

“When he did the MRI and the CT scan, they were all negative,” Cashman told Steve Kornacki. “But the foot expert down here, Dr. Mates, stayed in touch and wanted it repeated (in two weeks) to get a better feel for where the inflammation was. I don’t think we’re repeating the CT scan, but we’re repeating the MRI.”

Because LeMahieu’s bone bruised foot isn’t bad enough, Anthony Rizzo is nursing a tight lat. He said it’s something he’s dealt with on and off throughout his career and that it’s no big deal. Rizzo was in the lineup Monday at DH and says he’ll be at first base on Opening Day. Still, this is now a thing we have to monitor, in part because we can’t trust anything the Yankees say when they downplay an injury.

Oswaldo Cabrera, who quietly went 10-for-29 (.345) with six walks and five strikeouts in his final 13 spring games, is the leading candidate to fill in at third base. The Yankees sent Kevin Smith* and Luis Torrens to minor league camp Monday, eliminating them from Opening Day bench consideration. Did you know Torrens played some second and third base spring? Talk about a sign you need bench help.

* Not gonna lie, I thought Smith was a lock for a bench spot when he showed up to Mexico City wearing No. 14 after wearing No. 74 all spring.

Jahmai Jones had a sneaky good spring (.286/.429/.500) and the Yankees had him play a few innings at third base recently, I guess just to expose him to a new position. Jones is out of options and could be in play for the Opening Day roster if the Yankees don’t go outside the organization for bench help. With Smith being sent out, Jones is the only bench candidate who hasn’t been sent to minor league camp.

And finally, there’s the Ben Rortvedt situation. The Yankees made it through Spring Training with all their catchers physically intact (thankfully), and Wells hit .300/.391/.500 during Grapefruit League play. He didn’t give the Yankees a reason to send him down. Wells and Trevino will be the two catchers to start the season* and that leaves Rortvedt in limbo. He’s not oblivious. He can do the math.

“Everyone knows the situation. It’s not something I think that needs to be brought up. So it’s just kind of what it is. I know there’s decisions to be made, but that shouldn’t factor how I go about my days,” Rortvedt told Max Goodman recently. “... It’s something that’s setting in because how can’t you think towards something that’s creeping up on you like that? But it is what it is.”

* With the lefty Framber Valdez starting for Houston, I bet Trevino is behind the plate on Opening Day.

The Yankees could carry three catchers to start the season, but good grief, would they really go with two catchers, Trent Grisham, and a guy with five minutes of third base experience (Jones) on the bench? Actually, yes, that sounds like something the Yankees would do. The margins of the roster have been messy the last few years. This is what happens when you ignore the bench until February.

The Yankees could try the Estevan Florial/Austin Romine move and DFA Rortvedt, then put him on waivers soon after Opening Day, after teams have set their rosters and are less likely to make a claim. I do wonder if there’s a Rortvedt for a bench infielder trade to be made though. The Athletics, Marlins, and Rays could all use a backup catcher. Maybe something shakes loose and the Yankees trade Rortvedt for an infielder?

If Rortvedt clears waivers and remains with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player, great. You can’t have too much depth behind the plate, and he knows the pitching staff. If Rortvedt is lost on waivers or traded, then Torrens and Carlos Narváez are next in line, with Ben Rice and Josh Breaux behind them. Point is, Opening Day is two days away and the bench is still very much in flux.

The chances Cabrera is at first and Jones is at third on Opening Day are too high for my liking. The Yankees are surely scouring the market for help – they only told Beeter and Burdi that they’re going to Houston, not that they’re on the Opening Day roster – and the infield has been so thinned by LeMahieu’s and Peraza’s injuries that I have to think they’ll bring someone in. Carrying three catchers feels like a last resort (and would be a poorly built roster).

Opening Day roster until further notice

The Opening Day roster does not have to be submitted to the league office until Thursday morning and the chances the Yankees bring in a bench player (or two!) from outside the organization between now and then seem very good. After all the roster cuts the last few days, the Yankees have 26 healthy players remaining on the big league Spring Training roster (asterisk indicates the player is out of minor league options):

(Moore has a knee injury and didn’t pitch this spring. He spent a few days with the Phillies last year and has to go on the MLB injured list, not the Triple-A injured list. I don’t know how serious the knee injury is, but if it’s a long-term thing, Moore’s a 60-day injured list candidate.)

Ron Marinaccio, Cody Poteet, Nick Ramirez, and Will Warren were all sent out Sunday. That left Beeter as the only 40-man roster pitcher still in big league camp and not assured an Opening Day roster spot, then of course he was told he “won the spot internally.” I thought Poteet had a chance to make the roster as a long man. Saturday’s seven-out, eight-run start took him out of the running, I suppose.

I should note the Yankees can not carry four starters and nine relievers to begin the season. Gil was optioned to minor league camp on March 3rd, long before Cole got hurt, and the 15-day rule says pitchers who are optioned in Spring Training must spend the first 15 days of the regular season in the minors unless they’re replacing an injured player. The 15 days start on Opening Day, not the date of the option.

So what does that mean? That means the Yankees have to “call up” Gil as the corresponding move when Cole (or Kahnle) is placed on the injured list to start the season. The Yankees can’t have Gil start the season in the minors, carry an extra reliever in Games 1-4, then call up Gil for Game 5. The 15-day rule doesn’t allow it. Not a big deal. Just means the Yankees can’t have an extra reliever in Houston.

(This happened with Jhony Brito last year. He was optioned on March 11th, then Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino got hurt, and the Yankees had to use Severino’s injured list stint to get Brito on the Opening Day roster so he could make his first scheduled start. If Warren was the No. 5 starter, he could have started the year in the minors, then come up for Game 5 because he’s not on the 40-man and the 15-day rule doesn’t apply to him.)

2. Yankees swept in Mexico City. The Yankees wrapped up their 2024 exhibition schedule Monday night in Mexico City. They went 14-18-2 with a -14 run differential this spring, Mexico City included. It felt like the Yankees had a lead or were at least within striking distance in every Grapefruit League game, then the MLB players came out and the minor leaguers let things get away in the late innings. So it goes.

Anyway, the Yankees played in Mexico City for the first time since Spring Training 1968, when they played four exhibition games and went 3-1 against two Mexican League teams. The crowd and atmosphere for the two games were great. It sounded like winter ball games with the horns and chants and all that. The atmosphere for MLB games is really lame compared to Latin America, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Those fans go hard.

The Yankees wound up sending a skeleton crew to Mexico City. Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman were pulled from the trip after Gerrit Cole got hurt. Aaron Judge was a no-go once his abdominal began to act up. Injuries took DJ LeMahieu (foot) and Anthony Rizzo (lat) off the travel roster. Juan Soto stayed in Tampa to work on his swing. Alex Verdugo skipped the trip because his girlfriend is giving birth soon.

The only projected members of the Opening Day roster to make the trip were Oswaldo Cabrera, Victor González, Jonathan Loáisiga, Jose Trevino, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Volpe. Loáisiga’s mother got to see him pitch as a Yankee for the first time. “I’m proud of that opportunity to come here and for my mom to see me pitch for the first time. It’s a beautiful moment she will be able to cherish,” he told Bryan Hoch.

González grew up about four hours from Mexico City, and like Loáisiga, his mother got to see him pitch in an MLB game for the first time thanks to this trip. Also, González’s wife is a few months pregnant, and they learned the gender and had a little celebration while he was in town. From Gary Phillips:

“(My mother’s) gonna be very excited,” González said. “I actually told her to wait until I’m pitching in the Bronx for the Yankees, but she said, ‘No, I can’t wait anymore. I’m gonna go see you here in Mexico.’

…

“That’s another special part of this trip,” González said. “I’m expecting a baby with my wife and have an opportunity to find out if it’s gonna be a girl or a boy. I think she has one of those devices that you twist and pop [to reveal the gender]. We’ll have some cake to celebrate.”

The Yankees also sent the Serna cousins on the trip. Jared and Luis are my No. 22 and 26 prospects, respectively, and both grew in Mexico. Nowhere particularly close to Mexico City, but still, they got to play for the Yankees in their home country. How cool is that? Jared came off the bench in both games and went 2-for-2 at the plate. Luis started Monday night’s game despite never pitching above rookie ball.

As for the games themselves, Sunday was pretty low event, then Monday night we got the fireworks you’d expect at 7,200 feet above sea level. Too bad Diablos Rojos hit all the dingers. Robbie Canó hit a home run Sunday – Robbie still looks cool as hell when he hits a dinger (video) – and the highlight of the two games for the Yankees was I guess the 19-year-old Serna pulling the string on the 41-year-old Canó?

Serna’s got a great, great changeup. Too bad he gave up that grand slam to ruin his outing. Still, Serna is only 19 and he did a nice job getting through a lineup with several former big leaguers one time before the wheels fell off. That was, by frickin’ far, the best lineup Serna has ever faced. 

The important thing now is no one gets sick. Many Giants got sick after their Mexico City games last year, and the NFL has had problems too. Also, the air quality wasn’t great because a nearby volcano erupted recently. The Yankees took precautions, but still, you can only do so much. I guess it’s a good thing so few regulars made the trip. Anyway, the exhibition season is in the books. On to the regular season.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Over the weekend the Rockies signed shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to a seven-year, $63.5M extension with a club option that could push the total value to $84M. I bring that up only to note it could serve as framework for a potential Anthony Volpe extension. Tovar, like Volpe, was a consensus top 20-ish prospect entering 2023 who is currently glove over bat and has one full big league season under his belt. The Rockies march to the beat of their own drum, but when I took a stab at figuring out a potential Volpe extension a few weeks ago, I landed on something a bit north of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ eight-year, $70M contract given the difference in age. Tovar’s deal is in that ballpark. Of course, the Yankees rarely extend players early in their careers, instead opting to use the three league minimum pre-arbitration years to keep the luxury tax payroll down. It is what it is … And finally, it looks like the MLBPA coup is already over. The eight-player executive subcommittee expressed regret about how they’ve handled things and Harry Marino, the minor leaguer turned lawyer who is gunning for Tony Clark’s and/or Bruce Meyer’s job, is out of the picture. Disagreement and a desire for change is inevitable with a membership this large, but this really should’ve kept this behind closed doors. The entire union now looks dumb and disjointed, and that’s not the image they want to project.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)