March 14th, 2024: Cease, Rodón, Opening Day Starter, Mailbag

Opening Day is two weeks away and the Yankees still have so much roster uncertainty. Some of it is unexpected (who replaces Gerrit Cole?), some if it is not (who’s on the bench?). In two weeks the Yankees will be in Houston and we’ll have answers to all those questions. Here now is Friday morning’s post Thursday evening. We’re still waiting on a Cole update, so I figured I’d get this post out now before anything happens and I have to start writing again.

1. Cease traded to Padres. I guess the Padres were serious about Dylan Cease and it wasn’t just the White Sox trying to get the Yankees to ante up. Chicago traded Cease to San Diego Wednesday evening. Here is the trade package and the approximate Yankees’ equivalent:

• RHP Drew Thorpe: Chase Hampton (middle of the top 100 Double-A pitcher)
• RHP Jairo Iriarte: Henry Lalane (borderline top 100 pitcher)
• OF Samuel Zavala: Brando Mayea (high upside teenager)
• RHP Steven Wilson: Ron Marinaccio (MLB middle reliever)

The Yankees of course sent Thorpe to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade. Poor guy is now stuck in one of the worst pitcher development organizations in the game. The Padres are extremely aggressive with their prospects, so although Zavala doesn’t turn 20 until July, he was in High-A last season. And he played well too: .267/.420/.451 (140 wRC+) with 14 homers in 101 games.

The Yankees don’t have a good Iriarte equivalent. He split 2023 between High-A and Double-A, and could begin this season in Triple-A. Yoendrys Gómez is at that point developmentally, though he’s two years older and has a long injury history. Lalane is a rookie ball kid and much further away from the big leagues than Iriarte. I plugged Lalane in only because he’s a similar borderline top 100 prospect.

We know the White Sox wanted Hampton and/or Spencer Jones for Cease – Erik Boland says Chicago also asked about Clayton Beeter, Oswald Peraza, Everson Pereira, and Will Warren – and Jon Morosi says the Yankees made a “final trade proposal” at some point in the 24-48 hours before Cease was traded. We don’t know who was in that final offer, but obviously it wasn’t to the ChiSox’s liking.

Unless a surprise name shakes loose on the trade market, the only way to add an above-average starter now is to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and I don’t expect the Yankees to do that. That 110% luxury tax rate hits hard. That said, this is (should be) an all-in year. If you don’t want to pay a 110% tax rate, then develop an impact pitcher once in a while. Don’t lose trade after trade after trade for three years.

Buster Olney (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have insurance on Cole’s contract, and the way these things usually work is the player must spend X number of days on the injured list before the salary relief kicks in. We’re still waiting on the final diagnosis. If it’s bad and a long-term injury, and the Yankees know insurance will cover a sizable chunk of Cole’s salary, then maybe they’ll pony up for Snell or Montgomery. Maybe.

I think the Yankees will bring in another pitcher for depth, though I also thought they’d bring in a left fielder last offseason, and look how that went. The best non-Montgomery, non-Snell free agent pitcher is probably Michael Lorenzen? He’s a sinker guy and the Yankees love those, plus he’s started and relieved plenty. Even if Cole is out relatively short-term, Lorenzen would fit into the pitching staff somewhere. We’ll see.

(About five minutes after I wrote that, Jon Heyman reported the Yankees have checked in on Lorenzen.)

Cole’s injury is going to tell us a lot about the Yankees and Hal Steinbrenner. How all-in are they really? I wasn’t sold on them being all-in even when Cole was healthy. In years past, “championship caliber” meant being good enough to get to the postseason, and then you hope things go your way. The Yankees without Cole might not be good enough to get to the postseason. So what do they do about it?

It is dumb luck that two above-average starters are sitting in free agency on March 14th. The Yankees can either act like the Yankees and sign one of them, or they can go with a half-measure and risk another postseason-less season. The Yankees didn’t cave and give the White Sox what they wanted for Cease, but what’s the point of trading for one year of Soto if you’re not going to step up and replace Cole with the best available pitcher? Especially when it’ll only cost money?

2. Grapefruit League observations. It’s funny, the Yankees played baseball this week and I watched a bunch of it, and yet I couldn’t possibly care less about what happened. Even less than I usually care in Spring Training, I mean. We’re all awaiting word on Gerrit Cole’s elbow and, to a lesser extent, Aaron Judge’s abdomen. For what it’s worth, Judge is “penciled in” to Saturday’s lineup. Cole? We’re still waiting. Here are the few thoughts I could muster on the last few games.

Rodón’s third spring start

In the wake of Cole’s injury, we really needed to see something from Carlos Rodón this week, and he was very good Wednesday: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (video). Granted, it was against the Red Sox’s “B” lineup, but still. It was a good performance. I know “we really needed to see something” is a dumb thing to say in Spring Training, but we kinda did, right? The Yankees badly need Rodón to step up.

“I don’t think Carlos needs any more pressure than the perceived pressure that’s on him,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips after Rodón’s start. “Coming in last year and going through the injury situation that he had, and then having a down year and not performing up to his standard, there’s plenty of noise around that with Gerrit Cole here or Gerrit Cole out. He knows it. He wants to put last year behind him. So is there more pressure? I mean, everyone’s watching Carlos right now. We’re making stuff out of spring starts every time. So there’s a lot at stake for Carlos.”

Last time out Rodón’s fastball was down about 2 mph from his previous spring start, and that missing velocity returned Wednesday. Rodón sat 94.6 mph and topped out at 97.3 mph, whereas last time out he did not throw a pitch above 94.8 mph. That’s the good news. The bad news is Rodón got only six whiffs on 36 swings (17%). It’s only March, but we’ve yet to see the swing-and-miss ability. Hopefully it shows up soon.

Also, Rodón made Wednesday’s start with two extra days of rest. Did his velocity return because he’s building arm strength, or because he had extra rest? I guess we’ll find out one way or the other pretty soon. During his in-game interview with YES (video), Boone said the Yankees will keep Rodón on the schedule they originally mapped out, so he’ll start the second game of the regular season. That likely means:

• Wednesday, March 13th vs. Red Sox: 68 pitches with two extra days of rest
• Monday, March 18th vs. Phillies: 75-80 pitches on normal rest
• Saturday, March 23 vs. Phillies: 85-90 pitches on normal rest
• Friday, March 29th at Astros: Game 2 of regular season with an extra day of rest

I suppose the Yankees could have Rodón start Wednesday, March 20th with two extra days of rest again, then let him start Game 2 of the regular season with three extra days of rest, but that seems excessive. He needs to build up his pitch count. Two more spring starts on normal rest, then an extra day going into his regular season debut looks like Rodón’s schedule from here on out.

The path is paved for a redemption arc. If Rodón pitches well and becomes the de facto staff ace with Cole sidelined, last year will be forgotten and we’ll all love him. He’s not there yet though, and he’s liable to come out missing 2 mph again in his next start, but the Rodón we saw Wednesday is someone the Yankees can work with. That needs to be a springboard and not a blip. Rodón is too important to this team now.

“Obviously there is room for improvement, but the velocity was there,” Rodón told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s start. “... Today I got to build some confidence. The last start was a little rocky, as we know. Today the stuff showed up. It was nice.”

Latest roster moves

The Spring Training roster is down to 50 players. The Yankees sent out the following players earlier this week: LHP Oddanier Mosqueda, C Carlos Narváez, C Agustin Ramirez, RHP Duane Underwood Jr, and UTIL Josh VanMeter. Assuming Judge will be available on Opening Day, the roster currently looks like this (asterisk indicates the player is out of options):

Burdi seems ticketed for one of those bullpen TBD spots. Peraza’s injury makes him a 60-day injured list candidate (Cole’s probably one as well), so there’s the 40-man spot for Burdi. Also, Moore (who?) has not pitched this spring. He’s probably hurt too, and potentially a 60-day injured list candidate if the Yankees need another 40-man spot down the line (Allen? Santana? Smith? late spring pickup?).

Players who have already been sent to minor league camp can always be brought back and put on the Opening Day roster. Luis Gil was optioned on March 3rd, but he threw the snot out of the ball Monday, and if that continues, the Yankees can put him on the Opening Day roster as Cole’s injury replacement. Either way, those are the 50 players (44 healthy players) still in camp with Opening Day two weeks away.

Also, the Mexico City roster is coming together. Boone told Hoch that (Victor) González, LeMahieu, Loáisiga, Stanton, Soto, Trevino, and Verdugo are among the regulars scheduled to make the trip. The Yankees will have to bring extra players and they have a few Mexican prospects in the system, most notably Jared and Luis Serna. Luis is a rookie ball pitcher. Not sure that’s the right place for him. Jared though? Yeah, I could see it. He might be Mexico City.

Up next

Less than two weeks remain in Spring Training. Here are the upcoming schedule and pitching probables (here’s the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule):

• Friday vs. Pirates: Clarke Schmidt (YES)
• Saturday vs. Blue Jays: Luis Gil (YES)
• Saturday vs. Blue Jays: TBA (YES) (Spring Breakout)
• Sunday at Red Sox: TBA (Red Sox TV)
• Monday vs. Phillies: TBA (YES)

Will Warren has not yet been replaced on the Spring Breakout roster but don’t be surprised if he is at some point. He is ostensibly in the running for the No. 5 starter’s spot, and throwing an inning or two in a prospect showcase isn’t the best way to prepare him for the season. A legit Grapefruit League outing in which Warren builds up his pitch count would be the way to go. We’ll see what happens there.

(I suppose Warren could throw an inning or two in Spring Breakout, then head across the street to the minor league complex to throw another 3-4 innings in a simulated game. I dunno. Seems convoluted.)

Rodón and Stroman are out of the running for Opening Day. Stroman told Phillips he’s sticking to the schedule they had mapped out, and he’ll start Game 3 of the regular season. I suppose the Yankees could start Cole’s replacement (Warren? Poteet? Weaver?) on Opening Day, though it seems unlikely. Same with a bullpen game. The Yankees open the season with seven games in seven days and won’t wreck their bullpen on Day 1 of 7.

It’ll likely be Schmidt or Cortes, who is throwing a simulated game tomorrow. After Friday, either guy can start next Friday with two extra days of rest, and Opening Day the following Thursday with one extra day of rest. Schmidt starts tomorrow on normal rest. Cortes has been on an every sixth or seventh day schedule this spring after last year’s shoulder trouble. Might as well map it out:

• Friday, March 15th: Schmidt (normal rest) and Cortes (sim game with one extra day of rest)
• Saturday, March 16th: Gil (normal rest)
• Sunday, March 17th: SP5 candidate (Poteet? Warren? Weaver?)
• Monday, March 18th: Rodón (normal rest)
• Tuesday, March 19th: off-day (Stroman sim game on normal rest, per Pete Caldera)
• Wednesday, March 20th: Schmidt (normal rest)
• Thursday, March 21st: SP5 candidate
• Friday, March 22nd: Cortes (two extra days of rest)
• Saturday, March 23rd: Rodón (normal rest) (split squad day)
• Sunday, March 24th: Stroman (normal rest) (split squad day)
• Monday, March 25th: Schmidt (normal rest) (split squad day)
• Tuesday, March 26th: off-day
• Wednesday, March 27th: off-day
• Thursday, March 28th: Cortes (one extra day of rest) (Opening Day)
• Friday, March 29th: Rodón (one extra day of rest)
• Saturday, March 30th: Stroman (one extra day of rest)
• Sunday, March 31st: Schmidt (one extra day of rest)
• Monday, April 1st: SP5

Those back-to-back-to-back days of split squad games (March 24th and 25th are Mexico City) means there will be plenty of innings available for the various SP5 candidates those three days. Looking only at the four healthy MLB starters, that schedule seem about right? That lines up Nestor for Opening Day without cutting back on his extra rest, and it lines all four up to make their regular season debuts with extra rest, something we know the Yankees prefer based on the last few years.

(Gil starting Saturday could be an indication he’s the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter.)

Nasty Nestor on Opening Day seems like the easiest, most straightforward move given his rest schedule. There’s no sense in disrupting Stroman’s schedule so he can make a ceremonial start, especially after he had a few injuries in the second half last year. The Yankees haven’t announced anything yet, but signs point to Cortes on Opening Day. Nestor was the ace in 2022. May he again be the ace in 2024.

"I've decided who's starting,” Boone told Chris Kirschner about the Opening Day starter. “I just want a few more days to go off the clock (before announcing it) because a lot can happen still."

Miscellany

Loáisiga finally made his Grapefruit League debut Thursday. It wasn’t televised and he got hit around a bit (1.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K) but Statcast says his velocity and movement was in line with last season, and that’s really all I care about. I was worried he’d show up throwing 91-92 mph with the way the Yankees hid him this spring, but nope. Loáisiga sat 97.9 mph and topped out at 98.5 mph with the sinker. That works. He told Hoch the plan is to be a multi-inning reliever with two days of rest between outings in the first half. We’ll see how long that lasts. Please stay healthy this year, Johnny. For your sake (it’s his free agent year) and the team’s sake … The latest piece of evidence that Austin Wells will be on the Opening Day roster: Wells caught Rodón on Wednesday, and Rortvedt came off the bench to play with all the minor leaguers later in the game. Rortvedt seems headed down the Estevan Florial/Austin Romine path, meaning the Yankees will DFA him at the end of camp and put him on waivers a day or two after Opening Day, when rosters are set and teams are less likely to make a claim … And finally, 2022 third rounder Trystan Vrieling threw two innings in Wednesday’s game. He fell out of my Top 30 Prospects this year because he missed last season with a broken elbow. Statcast had Vrieling sitting 94.6 mph and topping out at 96.6 mph. That’s way up from the low-90s velocity he showed going into the draft. Vrieling has two high spin breaking balls and the hope was he’d add velocity in pro ball, and it seems he has despite the injury. Perhaps the injury just delayed his breakout by a year. That would be neat. Vrieling’s velocity definitely stood out Wednesday. (Cade Smith, one of my Not Top 30 Prospects, got into Tuesday’s game, but it was a quick six-pitch inning with all fastballs. Can’t take much away from that.)

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Todd Frazier was the YES Network analyst Wednesday (has he done any other games this spring? I forget) and I enjoyed him. He’s funny and self-deprecating, he talked about the game intelligently, he told some good stories, and he was able to be serious (Gerrit Cole’s injury) and unserious (Spring Training in general) as the situation warranted. Frazier did studio work last year and I’m not sure YES will put him in the booth this year, but I’m a fan. He was good. Also, YES is definitely calling games remotely this spring, right? I can't explain it but you can tell listening to the broadcast. Also, usually they show the broadcasters in the booth or on the field during the open, but they haven’t done that this spring. Remote broadcasts are fine for Spring Training – if remote broadcasts equal more televised spring games, sign me up – but not the regular season. As we learned in 2020, remote broadcasts are subpar if not outright bad.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Many asked: What do you think the injury means for Gerrit Cole’s opt out?

Readers, I have no idea, and it’s impossible to know without knowing the final diagnosis. If it really is a 1-2 month thing, and Cole returns in late May or early June and pitches well, then he’ll opt out and it’ll be like the elbow injury never happened. Well, we don’t know that he’ll opt out if all is well. In my CBS post I noted it’s possible not opting out might be the best way for Cole to maximize his earnings.

If it’s Tommy John surgery or another long-term injury, then I would guess Cole doesn’t opt out, but who really knows? Jacob deGrom made 11 starts in 2022 and 26 starts from 2021-22, but still opted out of his Mets contract and got a $185M deal from the Rangers. deGrom only walked away from one year and $30.5M though, plus he was healthy (he made those 11 starts to close out 2022). Cole would walk away from four years and $144M, and we’re talking about an injury that hypothetically costs him the season. It's apples to oranges.

The opt out decision doesn’t have to be made until November and so much can and will change between now and then. Let’s get the diagnosis, see the treatment plan, see whether that treatment plan actually works, and then circle back to the opt out in a few months. Right now, I think we should hope Cole opts out, because that would likely mean he’s healthy and pitches well whenever he returns.

Paul asks: ESPN published their top 100 players for 2024 and the Yankees rightfully have 3 in the top 10. What interested me was that the highest ranked non-Judge/Soto/Cole player is Volpe. I would love for that to happen, it would mean he took a huge step, but really? Gleyber/Rizzo/Holmes are easily ahead of him, right?

ESPN really gassed up young players in their top 100, which they say is designed to answer the question “which player will be better in 2024?” They have Elly De La Cruz at No. 72, two spots ahead of Yandy Díaz. Elly is one of the most talented players in the game, but he has approach and contact concerns. Do they really believe De La Cruz will be better than Yandy in 2024? Give them props for being bold, I guess.

Volpe is No. 95, ranked ahead of Christian Yelich, Cal Raleigh, Merrill Kelly, Devin Williams, and Walker Buehler. And also J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres, who were not in the top 100. The numbers:

How is Crawford not one of the 100 best players in the game? I don’t get that. Seems like the ESPN folks did a lot of best case scenario forecasting for young players, including Volpe. And that’s fine. I don’t agree with the extent they did it, but if you’re going to lean into the next generation, then really lean into it.

For 2024 and 2024 only, Torres is ahead of Volpe for me. I could buy Volpe over Clay Holmes or Anthony Rizzo because it’s a reliever and an aging first baseman coming off a concussion, though I’m not 100% sold on that. Hopefully I’m wrong and Volpe’s flatter swing leads to a breakout sophomore season. Right now, I’m fine bumping him down the hierarchy a tad.

Jon asks: I feel like more and more, much of thinking about how the Yankees should field a team depends on the 40 man roster and all that goes into that, like injury lists, options, etc. And my question is, basically, why 40? Why not, say, 38 or 42? Change 40 in either direction and team construction would change in key ways. I get the point of it not being infinite - and I get the point of the 26 being at least around 26. But I really can't figure out where 40 came from. Do you know?

The 40-man roster dates back to the 1920s and it has been expanded at times, mostly notably when MLB used a 48-man roster during World War II to accommodate the need for extra players. The 40-man roster predates the modern farm system, which Branch Rickey developed in the late 1930s, and I assume it was put in place as a way to organize extra players and prospects, and officially add them to the organization.

Why 40 and not 38 or 42 or 50? I do not know. Rosters were 25 players and people like round numbers, so 25 + 15 gives you a nice round number in 40. Five extra players is too few and 25 extra players back then was overkill. In the 1920s teams would use maybe 28-30 players a season (the 1927 Yankees used only 25 players, one of whom appeared in only one game). These days a team might use 28-30 pitchers to get through a season. I don’t know the exact origin of the 40-man roster, though I assume it was implemented as an official way to carry extra players, and 40 was chosen because it’s a round number and a reasonable size.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)