March 1st, 2024: Stanton, Warren, Peraza, Jones, Mailbag

UPDATE: I goofed on my search for the .250/.350/.450 hitters mailbag question. My mistake. It has been corrected below.

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ORIGINAL POST: They snuck an extra day into February this year, but it’s now March, and the Yankees will play meaningful regular season baseball later this month. Opening Day is three weeks and six days away. Until then, we have Spring Training baseball to enjoy, which is fun in its own way. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Grapefruit League observations. The Yankees had an off-day Wednesday and have only played two games since the last post, so I don’t have too much to say today. Here are a few thoughts on the latest Spring Training happenings.

Stanton’s swing changes

Giancarlo Stanton reported to Spring Training looking like a new man. He has slimmed down noticeably, not that being out of shape was an issue the last few years. Stanton’s leaner and less muscular now. He’s also made changes to his swing, or so he says. Giancarlo’s declined to talk about those swing changes in detail to date. So, let’s see what we see. Here are the before and after GIFs:

“Just starting the hands a little closer to my body and working out towards the big part of the field for the most part,” Stanton said during an in-game interview with YES on Tuesday (video) when asked about his swing changes. It was not the most convincing answer though. It was almost like he was being evasive and didn’t want to reveal too much. I dunno. Maybe I’m crazy.

Looking at the GIF, yeah, it looks like Stanton’s hands are a little closer to his body, but keep in mind we are at the mercy of the camera angles. It doesn’t look like Stanton has opened the stance much if at all, though I think his shoulders are angled differently? He was almost leaning forward in the past, with his left shoulder below the right. His shoulders look more even now? Maybe? Possibly?

Stanton turned around a 97.3 mph fastball and lined a single to right Thursday night (video) – he put only 18 balls in play against pitches at 97+ mph last year (six hits) – which I hope is a good sign. Whatever adjustments Stanton made are subtle. He hasn’t significantly opened his stance or altered the angle of his bat when he begins his swing, things like that. I hope any adjustments work and Giancarlo goes back to being a force, but it’s an uphill battle now that he’s 34 and has had so many injuries.

"I gotta change the narrative," Stanton told David Schoenfield last month. “... It's not a rebuild of confidence. It's a big stack of things that weren't aligned, and this is a new year and after this I'm not talking about last year too much. I don't get paid to be a stand-up guy. I'm here to produce and help us win a championship."

Warren and Hampton debut

Will Warren and Chase Hampton, the organization’s top two pitching prospects, both made their Grapefruit League debuts Tuesday. Warren got dinged for a run in his 2.2 innings. Hampton pitched around a single and a walk in a scoreless inning. Statcast data from the Rays’ Spring Training ballpark is not public, so I don’t have anything for you there. Hampton threw a lot of fastballs by minor league hitters though.

Spring Training results are meaningless but usage can be telling. Hampton pitched just the one inning – the eighth inning at the end of a road loss (the Yankees didn’t have to pitch the ninth) – and faced minor league hitters after the starters were removed. Warren, however, was the first guy out of the bullpen, and he went through the starting lineup. The Rays played most of the regulars that day. Warren’s day:

Third Inning
René Pinto: Ground ball double down the line
Yandy Díaz: Ground out to second (runner advances to third)
Brandon Lowe: Ground out to second (runner holds)
Randy Arozarena: Swinging strikeout (video)

Fourth Inning
Josh Lowe: Fly out to center
Harold Ramírez: Ground ball single to center
Curtis Mead: Swinging strikeout
Jonny DeLuca: Foul pop up near first base

Fifth Inning
José Caballero: Line drive double to center
René Pinto: Line drive single to left (run scores)
Austin Shenton: Ground out to first
Ronny Simon: Pulled mid at-bat

Warren reached his pitch limit mid at-bat and got yanked, and that momentarily gave me a heart attack. I thought he got hurt. Anyway, that is pretty much Tampa’s regular lineup. It’ll be Isaac Paredes over Mead on Opening Day, and DeLuca is steping into Manny Margot’s platoon role, otherwise that’s the lineup. Hampton soaked up an inning late in the game. Warren faced an actual test.

“He was good,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about Warren’s outing. “Every pitch that he didn’t execute perfectly got whacked pretty good. But I thought he was in command.”

I thought Warren looked good, but the results are whatever. Maybe he ran out of gas in that fifth inning, or maybe he just got hit around. The important thing is the Yankees sent Warren out there against Major Leaguers and for an extended outing. They challenged him and focused on stretching him out. They did not do that with Hampton. Warren was treated as a higher priority.

And that makes sense, right? Hampton will begin this season back in Double-A, and if he does make his MLB debut this year, it won’t be until late in the season. Warren could be as high as No. 6 on the rotation depth chart and, if necessary, we could see him in the Bronx sometime in April. Maybe as soon as Opening Day! I hope not, that would require a few injuries, and I don’t want any starters getting hurt.

Spring Training usage can tell you how the team views certain players – pay attention to which non-roster relievers face big league hitters and which have to hang around to mop up games – and the Yankees throwing Warren against something close to a division rival’s “A” lineup is pretty darn telling. They’re high on him and the kid is not far from the big leagues at all.

“My goal is to just show them what I’ve got and give myself a chance to break camp with the team,” Warren told Bryan Hoch earlier this spring. “Whether it’s at the end of camp or midway through the season, I’m going to show them that I’m here to help them win a championship.”

Up next

Here are the upcoming schedule and pitching probables (here’s the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule):

• Friday vs. Blue Jays: Gerrit Cole (YES)
• Saturday at Orioles: Marcus Stroman (YES app and Orioles TV)
• Sunday vs. Tigers: Nestor Cortes (YES)
• Monday at Marlins: TBA (no TV)

Carlos Rodón will throw a simulated game Friday, which splits him and Stroman up without anyone going too long between starts. They had been on the same schedule (they started the two split squad games last Sunday).

Friday and Monday are night games (6:30pm ET). The Yankees play the Mets next Tuesday, and both the Marlins and Mets train on the other side of Florida. It’s a 3-4 hour drive one way, so instead of busing back and forth both days, the Yankees typically send a large group and stay overnight. I wonder which veterans will draw the short straw for that two-day trip.

The first roster cuts should be coming soon. The Yankees made their first cuts on March 5th last spring, which was the Sunday after the first full week of Grapefruit League games. Prospects who are not MLB ready, minor league starters who need to get stretched out, and spare catchers are typically among the first cuts. Figure Hampton, Agustin Ramirez, guys like that.

Miscellany

We have our first new injury of Spring Training: Oswald Peraza has an achy shoulder and was held out of Tuesday’s game, Boone told Erik Boland. He did not play Thursday either, though Boone said Peraza is on track to play this weekend sometime. See you in June, Oswald (I kid, I kid) … Austin Wells is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in the early going. The Yankees never should’ve traded Grapefruit League Hall of Famer Kyle Higashioka! Higashioka is a career .284/.364/.577 hitter with 16 homers in 229 plate appearances in Spring Training, you know. For real though, worry if Wells is still doing this in 2-3 weeks, not after six at-bats in February … Nice Grapefruit League debut for Clayton Beeter, my No. 15 prospect, on Thursday (3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K). He got four whiffs on 16 swings against his fastball but it felt like more. He threw it right by a few guys … And finally, 60 pitches into Spring Training, Spencer Jones has yet to swing and miss. That just means he’s going to start the regular season with back-to-back four-strikeout games. This sport is stupid like that.

2. What’s next for Oswald Peraza? Although he’s still only 23, this feels like a pretty important year for Oswald Peraza. The slick-fielding shortstop has played 170 Triple-A games and he’s done all he needs to do at that level, yet he also doesn’t have a clearly defined MLB role. Last week Aaron Boone stopped short of saying Peraza is locked into the backup shortstop’s job.

“You can throw a lot of guys in that bucket,” Boone told Gary Phillips about the backup shortstop job while also naming Oswaldo Cabrera, Jeter Downs, and Kevin Smith as candidates. My guess is the shortstop depth chart looks something like this:

1. Anthony Volpe
(big gap)
2. Oswald Peraza
(gap)
3. Oswaldo Cabrera
4. Kevin Smith
(gap)
5. Jeter Downs

Jorbit Vivas* has opened eyes early in Spring Training, though he’s played all of three innings at shortstop in his career (all in Single-A three years ago), so I don’t think we can consider him shortstop depth. Smith can defend but can’t hit. Downs doesn’t really do much of anything other than have a famous name. I don’t think the Yankees want to put Cabrera at short, but they will if they have to.

* The pronunciation guide the Yankees sent out says it’s JOR-beet BEE-bas, yet I keep hearing broadcasters call him VEE-vas. Say the man’s name correctly!

Unless you’re an Elvis Andrus fan, there is no shortstop help in free agency. The Cardinals signed Brandon Crawford – 37-year-old Brandon Crawford coming off a .194/.273/.314 (63 wRC+) line and -1.3 WAR – to a Major League contract to back up Masyn Winn the other day. That same day the Giants signed Nick Ahmed (-0.1 WAR in 2023) to replace Crawford. The shortstop pickings are slim.

Peraza’s spot on the roster would be more secure had he hit even a little bit during his audition late last year. Instead, he hit .198/.237/.306 (48 wRC+) after joining the lineup for good on Aug. 22nd. His .306/.404/.429 (147 wRC+) line in September 2022 was nice, though it came with poor contact quality and an absurdly high .300 BABIP on fly balls (MLB average is .117). That was never gonna last (and it didn’t).

The glove is great. Peraza can really pick it and that’s more than half the battle. At minimum, teams want someone who can catch the ball backing up their starting infielders. Given his age and track record and prospect pedigree, the hope is Peraza can be more than a glove only guy. How are the Yankees supposed to find out if he can though? What’s the best way to develop Peraza given the current roster?

Development does not stop when a player reaches the big leagues (development never stops) and it can be difficult to balance what’s best for the player with what’s best for the team. The Yankees are trying to win a World Series – you don’t trade for one year of Juan Soto otherwise – and that takes priority over finding the best way forward with Peraza. Here are four (but not all) ways the Yankees could handle Peraza in 2024.

Good for Yankees, bad for Peraza: True bench player

The starting infield is the starting infield – DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Rizzo around the horn – and, with this plan, Peraza plays maybe twice a week, or when there’s an injury. Torres and Volpe are young and can play just about every game. LeMahieu and Rizzo are the aging veterans who will need regular rest, so their rest days are how Peraza gets his playing time. No more, no less.

Any additional playing time has to be earned. If Peraza performs, great, get him in the starting lineup more often, but don’t give him playing time just because. For the Yankees, this means keeping the best players on the field more often, and not feeling obligated to play Peraza just because he’s young and needs reps to continue his development. That will help them win more games, at least in theory.

For Peraza, this might be the worst outcome. He does need to play and face Major League competition to continue his development and this plan calls for not much playing time. A young player can learn a lot by being around big leaguers and seeing how they prepare, sitting in on meetings, etc. There’s no substitute for actually playing though, and this plan calls for not much playing time.

Good for Yankees, good for Peraza: Platoon him defensively

The Yankees have three starting pitchers who generate a lot of fly balls in Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodón. Cole and Cortes in particular get weak fly balls that travel shorter than average distances. They don’t need a standout infield defense behind them. Clarke Schmidt is average-ish at getting strikeouts and ground balls. Optimizing the defense for him is a little trickier.

Marcus Stroman, however, is one of the game’s best at getting weak contact on the ground. It is his bread and butter. He needs a good infield defense – Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson helped him an awful lot last year with the Cubs – and the days Stroman starts are the days Peraza should play. LeMahieu is a better defensive third baseman than Torres is a defensive second baseman …

• 2021-23 Torres at 2B: +3 DRS and -4 OAA
• 2021-23 LeMahieu at 3B: +9 DRS and +7 OAA

… but it’s hard to take Gleyber’s bat out of the lineup. Point is, Stroman needs a good infield defense and Peraza is probably the best defensive infielder on the roster (Volpe included), so he should play behind Stroman. And don’t forget the bullpen either. The bullpen is loaded with heavy sinkers and weak contact on the ground. You want Peraza on the field behind them, so perhaps this role involves being a defensive replacement as well.

The Yankees benefit by fielding their best possible infield defense behind a pitcher (Stroman) who needs a good infield defense. Peraza benefits by knowing exactly when he’ll play – days when Stroman starts and perhaps in the late innings with a lead – so he can prepare accordingly. Players are all about routine. Being Stroman’s personal infielder gives Peraza a routine. He knows exactly what days he’s starting.

To be clear, this would not be a great situation for Peraza. It would merely be good in a series of less than desirable situations. Playing behind Stroman and select relievers in close games loosely defines a role, right? That’s better than not knowing when you’ll play as an old school bench guy who only plays when he’s needed, not when his team wants him out there for strategic purposes.

Bad for Yankees, bad for Peraza: Send him to Triple-A

For reasons I still don’t understand, Peraza has a fourth minor league option, so the Yankees can send him back to Triple-A without exposing him to waivers. That allows the Yankees to carry, say, Smith as their seldom-used backup infielder while Peraza plays every single day and gets regular at-bats. In a perfect world, Peraza would play regularly, and it’s hard to see how that happens at the MLB level without an injury.

Going back to Triple-A would be bad for Peraza, however, and not just because he'd lose out on big league paychecks and service time. He’s played most of the last two seasons (and parts of the last three seasons) at that level and there’s not much more to be gained by going back. Like I said earlier, Peraza is at the point now where he needs to face big league competition to continue his development, and that won’t happen in Scranton. There’s major stagnation risk here.

(There is upside too. Send Peraza to Triple-A with a specific development goal – reduce chases against breaking balls, for example – and maybe he hits the target and makes the leap, and comes out the other side as a better player. It can happen, even in a third straight year at Triple-A.)

Sending Peraza to Triple-A is bad for the Yankees too, I think. Peraza is, pretty clearly, their best backup infielder option. He’s much better defensively than Cabrera and Downs and Smith, and you can at least squint your eyes and see offensive upside. Peraza is also a solid pinch-runner option, which has value too. Basically, the best and most talented 26-man roster has Peraza on the bench.

Good for Peraza: Trade him

I’m not sure it’s correct to say Peraza needs a change of scenery or a fresh start somewhere else, but he would clearly benefit from going to a team willing to play him at shortstop on an everyday basis. Looking at depth charts, I’d say the Athletics, Giants, Guardians, White Sox, and maybe even the Pirates could use a young shortstop. There’s also the possibility teams have interest in him as a second or third baseman.

Would trading Peraza be good or bad for the Yankees? It depends on the return, and the return will depend on how other team values him, not where he last appeared on prospect lists. The risk is Volpe pulls a hamstring and misses a few weeks, and the Yankees are stuck trotting Cabrera or Smith out at shortstop for a big chunk of the season. As far as backup shortstops go, Peraza is better than most.

Trading Peraza for the sake of trading him is unwise. It would be best for his career, though the Yankees are not obligated to trade him just because another team offers a greater opportunity. They should only trade him if the deal makes sense. Otherwise he’s a pretty important piece of depth as a strong defender who can fill in all over the infield. I’d rather have Peraza as Plan B than Downs and Smith.

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The Yankees will ultimately make the decision, they have the final say, but Peraza has input too. Spring Training may not count, but it does matter for Peraza. He has to show something – he went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and two defensive misplays in his first Grapefruit League game, and now his shoulder's barking – to convince the Yankees to put him on the roster, to play him regularly, etc. Past prospect pedigree only goes so far.

For much of the offseason, I assumed the Yankees would give Peraza fairly regular playing time early in the season. Not everyday duty, but a heavier workload than once or twice a week. Now? Now I'm not so sure. A third straight year in Triple-A might really be in the cards. These things have a way of taking care of themselves too. Someone will get hurt (maybe even Peraza!) or underperform, etc. Regardless, it's an important year for Peraza. This might be his last chance to show the Yankees he has a future in pinstripes.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. I have officially gone from “the Yankees should make more waiver claims” to “the Yankees make too many waiver claims.” Only because I would like a break from writing about them. The latest: Jahmai Jones. The Yankees claimed him from the Brewers earlier this week and designated Jordan Groshans for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot (I bet Groshans clears waivers and stays with the Yankees as a non-40-man player). Jones, 26, has some big league time with the Angels, Brewers, and Orioles, and he was a fringe top 100 prospect about five years ago. Last season he slashed .268/.413/.466 (122 wRC+) with 12 home runs and nearly as many walks (18.7%) as strikeouts (21.8%) in 103 Triple-A games. He’s a right-handed hitter and primarily a second baseman, though he’s also played all three outfield spots. Normally I would write more, but Jones is out of options, and I’m not sure how long he’ll stick around. Maybe he’ll beat out Oswaldo Cabrera for the final bench spot or something. If he does, I’ll write more about him then. That’s now eight waiver claims since the end of the World Series after eight waiver claims in the previous 25 months … And finally, Enrique Hernández re-signed with the Dodgers earlier this week, and during a recent podcast appearance he said his decision came down to the Dodgers and Yankees. Hernández hasn’t hit much the last two years (.230/.290/.329 and 73 wRC+) and his defensive numbers are in decline, though he can play anywhere and mashed lefties once upon a time. He's stretched as an everyday player at this point in his career but would have been a nice fit for the last bench spot, allowing the Yankees to send Cabrera (or Oswald Peraza?) to Triple-A. Can’t say I’m surprised Hernández went back to the Dodgers though. He’s played the majority of his career there and they’re maybe the best team in the game. Still, this is a pretty good indication the Yankees do not love their bench, and are actively seeking upgrades (I’m guessing this has played a part in all the waiver claims).

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: Are we at our nearing the point where Snell/Monty are at risk of not being ready for the regular season because they're missing so much of spring training?

Not there yet but we’re getting close. The best examples of starting pitchers signing in March are Jake Arrieta and Lance Lynn in 2018. The guys who signed after the lockout in 2022 don’t really work because everyone had an abbreviated Spring Training that year, so much so that teams began the season with 28-man rosters and two extra pitchers. (Gerrit Cole threw only 68 pitches on Opening Day because he wasn't stretched out yet, for example.)

Lynn signed with the Twins on March 12th, 2018, and he started their fourth game of the season on April 2nd. He was fully stretched out too. Threw 98 pitches that game. Arrieta also signed on March 12th, though he did not make his regular season debut until April 8th, and even then he was on a 75-pitch limit. The Phillies had Arrieta stay behind in Florida after Spring Training so he could continue getting stretched out.

If Blake Snell and/or Jordan Montgomery sign soon, within the next week or so, they should be in good shape for the start of the regular season. Wait any longer than that though, and their availability will be in question. And really, it depends on the pitcher. What are they doing right now? What is their preparation like? I doubt either is just sitting on the couch, but Snell could be ahead of Montgomery with his training, or vice versa.

Russ asks: I was curious about what kind of 2024 Peraza would have to have (in terms of performance and playing time) for the Yankees to give him the 2B job in 2025 (with Gleyber’s departure).

The Yankees do not seem to be nearly as committed to Oswald Peraza as they are Anthony Volpe, so I don’t think a 2023 Volpe-esque season – 84 wRC+ with defense good enough to get him to +3 WAR – would be enough to earn Peraza the starting second base job in 2025. ZiPS projects a .244/.306/.391 (93 OPS+) line for Peraza in 2024. Would that be enough to get an everyday job next season?

I guess it depends how Peraza gets to that slash line. Assuming the defense is very good all year, a slow start at the plate followed by a good second half in which it appears he’s figured a few things out (fewer chases, more contact, etc.) would bode well heading into 2025. That’s not a guarantee of success (see: Oswaldo Cabrera’s 2022) but I would at least feel better about things than I do right now.

I would like to see at least average offense this season, and if Peraza does hit at a league average rate, then he should probably be the everyday third baseman given his glove. Peraza having a league average season in, say, 300 plate appearances this year would lead me to believe the Yankees have him penciled in at second base next year. We know he’ll catch the ball. Now we need to see more at the plate.

A.J. asks: Long time first time here. Is it unreasonable to ask for .250/.350/.450 over 130 games in 2024 for the player formerly known as Mike?

How many players would you guess hit .250/.350/.450 in at least 130 games in 2023? I would’ve guessed 25. Why? I do not know. That’s the first number that popped in my head. The answer: 12. Only 12. Those 12 players: Ronald Acuña Jr., Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Corbin Carroll, TJ Friedl, Brandon Marsh, Ketel Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, Spencer Steer, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker.

UPDATE: I searched only outfielders for some reason. 22 players did it last year, not 12. My guess was close! The other 10 who did it: Luis Arraez, Triston Casas, Willson Contreras, Rafael Devers, Yandy Díaz, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Isaac Paredes, and José Ramírez. Okay, that makes more sense. My bad.

Anyway, it wasn’t that long ago that Giancarlo Stanton last hit those benchmarks. He hit .279/.354/.516 in 139 games in 2021. Stanton is 34 now and he is two injury-plagued decline years removed from that 2021 performance, so while it’s not far in the rearview mirror, it kinda is. To do something similar in 2024, he’d have to stay healthy, first and foremost, and also reverse a decline that is going on three years.

I would be thrilled with a .250/.350/.450 line from Stanton in 2024 – that would make him a leading Comeback Player of the Year candidate, no? – and I do think it’s an unreasonable ask. That might be the best case scenario at this point in Stanton’s career. I would be happy with .220/.320/.420 or so, which is probably selling his power short. The guy did slug .420 with only a .191 AVG last season, after all.

Stanton slimmed down and says he’s made changes to his swing. Will it matter? Who knows. We haven’t seen enough in Spring Training to even begin thinking about what these changes mean for his chance at being a productive player. I’d sign up for .250/.350/.450 right now, no questions asked. Knock off 20-30 points across the board and that’s a more reasonable expectation to me.

Adam asks: All the reporting around Blake Snell (and Monty) rumors seem to say that the Yankees won't pull the trigger bc of the 110% luxury tax threshold. I'm wondering if there is any corresponding salary relief move the Yanks can do to make a potential Snell salary a bit more palatable. I'm assuming no one will eat even a part of big G's contract (not to mention his no-trade). Are there any other ways for the Yankees to get some salary relief if they're going to be butts about adding another big salary player like Snell? Flipping Verdugo (or even Grisham) makes sense to me. I'd be pissed if we cut into our pitching depth at all to clear salary space, but the outfield is crowded (with big money too). This won't bring them under the cap, but will at least alleviate a bit of the tax pressure. Hopefully by the time you have a chance to respond to this, Blake Snell will be a Yankee and I won't even care about the answer.

The obvious move would be trading Gleyber Torres and his $14.2M salary. How the Yankees would replace him, I do not know, but that’s the quickest way to clear a big chunk of money. Trading Alex Verdugo ($8.7M) or Trent Grisham ($5.5M) could work, but they don’t have much value. Just look at how little the Yankees gave up for Verdugo. Clay Holmes ($6M) would be another quick way to clear money. The Yankees would find a taker for him in a heartbeat. Less so for Tommy Kahnle ($5.75M), but maybe him. Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu have negative trade value and full no-trade clauses. Anthony Rizzo has a six-team no-trade clause, but also a big salary and a significant recent injury. Forget about them. The best way to clear money is trading Holmes and/or Torres (which would then leave a big hole on the roster), or hoping the Yankees find a match for Grisham or Verdugo. They don’t have much trimmable payroll fat.

Tom asks: I keep seeing references to how if the Yankees offered Snell, say, a one year, $40 million deal, the luxury tax hit would be $84 million. So….could they offer an Ohtani style deal where they pay him 2 million and just defer 38 million over the next ten years? I admit I didn’t really understand the financing of the Ohtani deal that clearly so this could be a completely stupid question.

That is correct. A one-year, $40M contract would come with an additional $44M in luxury tax because the Yankees are over the $297M final threshold and because this is their third straight year paying luxury tax. They are taxed at the highest rates and that is 110% on everything over $297M.

As for deferrals, Article XVI of the Collective Bargaining Agreement states, “There shall be no limitations on either the amount of deferred compensation or the percentage of total compensation attributable to deferred compensation for which a Uniform Player’s Contract may provide.” The player and team can defer as much salary as they want however they want, as long as the other side agrees to it.

Article XXIII of the CBA outlines the luxury tax calculation for deferred salary and I’m not going to bore you with the details. All you need to know is that section sets the discounting rate at 4.43% this offseason. Let’s say the Yankees give Blake Snell one year and $40M, and pay him a $2M salary in 2024 with the remaining $38M deferred without interest, and paid out over 10 equal $3.8M installments from 2025-34.

Following Jon Becker’s lead and assuming I did this correctly, I get a $38,388,011.11 luxury tax hit in 2024 (rather than $40M). Call it $38.4M. That’s $36.4M covering the deferred compensation plus the $2M Snell will be paid in 2024. The discount is not big because we’ll begin making deferred payments in 2025. Let’s push it back 10 years to 2035-44, so we pay Snell his $2M in 2024, then he has to wait a decade to start getting his $3.8M annual payments.

In that case the 2024 luxury tax hit is reduced to $26,633,766.28, which I’m calling $26.6M for simplicity. That breaks down into $24.6M for the deferred portion and $2M in 2024 salary. A 110% tax rate on that is another $29.3M. In real money, the Yankees would pay $31.3M in 2024 ($2M to Snell and $29.3M to the league in tax), and then $3.8M a year to Snell from 2035-44. That’s a heck of a lot better than $40M to Snell and $44M to the league in 2024, no?

Why would Snell agree to this contract structure though? Shohei Ohtani agreed to massive deferrals, but he is an extreme outlier – Ohtani-esque deferrals are a non-starter for like 99% of players – who makes north of $50M a year in endorsements. Without the endorsement money, Ohtani would not have been open to such deferrals. That’s the math on how such a deal would work. Just don’t expect Snell to agree to it.

Jon asks: Given what they got out of them last year, the Yankees essentially are adding Rodon, Nestor (and Stroman) to the rotation this year. If you pretend Rodon and Nestor were available as free agents this offseason, how would you then have ranked all available free agent starters? Ohtani/Yamamoto still come first I'd assume, but where would Rodon and Nestor fit amongst Montgomery/Snell/Stroman/Nola/Gray/Rodriguez etc?

It’s funny, I would’ve been all about Carlos Rodón on a short-term prove yourself contract this offseason. One-year contracts aren’t really a thing anymore, so maybe two years and $44M with an opt out? That was his Giants contract. Rodón positively stunk in 2023, but he was elite from 2021-22, and his pitch data in 2023 was in line with 2021-22. I would’ve been interested in him on a short-term deal.

Nestor Cortes doesn’t have the same track record and the two rotator cuff strains are scary. He would’ve been in the Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino bucket for me. I would have ranked the winter’s free agent starters like so (not including Shohei Ohtani because of his injury):

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
(big gap)
2. Jordan Montgomery
3. Blake Snell
4. Aaron Nola
(gap)
5. Sonny Gray
6. Carlos Rodón
7. Eduardo Rodriguez
8. Marcus Stroman

You could put 2-3-4 in any order and wouldn’t argue. Those three are very close in my eyes. Further down the list is Cortes with Flaherty, Montas, etc. Rodón on a short-term prove yourself contract would’ve been very interesting. Rodón on the five years and $135M the Yankees still owe him? Not so much. Can’t say I would’ve been a fan of that signing.

Emiliano asks: Who the heck is Jackson Fristoe?

The Jacksons are coming to take over baseball. Orioles SS Jackson Holliday and Brewers OF Jackson Chourio are the consensus two best prospects in the game, Padres IF Jackson Merrill is a top 15-ish prospect, and Tigers RHP Jackson Jobe is one of the three or four best pitching prospects in baseball. Fristoe is not on their level, not even close, but he is the best Jackson in the Yankees’ farm system.

Fristoe, a 12th round pick in 2022, gained some notoriety recently when Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) wrote he was impressing in minor league camp, adding one person with the Yankees said Fristoe is “throwing gas out of nowhere.” Statcast has him sitting 96.0 mph and topping out at 98.6 mph with Low-A Tampa last year, so what is he throwing now, 97-99 mph and touching 102? How much more gas can he have?

The velocity is nice, but Fristoe had a 4.91 ERA (5.06 FIP) with a 17.1% walk rate in 36.2 innings last year, mostly in rookie ball. He got better as the season went on – Fristoe had a 25.0% walk rate in his first 17 innings and a 9.1% walk rate in his final 19.2 innings – but still, he’s going to have to throw more strikes for that velocity to matter. Fristoe threw 90% fastballs and cutters last year, so he’s a two-pitch guy. (Maybe the cutters were misclassified sliders?)

For all intents and purposes, Fristoe is an arm strength lottery ticket. He turns 23 next week, his numbers at Mississippi State were not good, and he’s thrown all of 9.1 innings above rookie ball. Perhaps he’ll break out in 2024 and become the next Jackson worth paying attention to now that he’s “throwing gas out of nowhere.” I’m curious what that means considering Fristoe was already flirting with 99 mph last year.

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