February 19th, 2024: Spring Training Storylines, Moore, Snell, Manfred

Position players will join the pitchers and catchers in Tampa today, and the Yankees will hold their first full squad workout Tuesday. The first (not photoshopped) picture of Juan Soto in a Yankees uniform is coming soon. We’re getting close to real live baseball. Anyway, I have an extra post coming this week (it’s something I want to get in before Grapefruit League games begin) and I’m spacing things out to make my life easier, so here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday morning.

1. Grapefruit League storylines. Five days from today the Yankees will play their first game of the 2024 season. It won’t mean anything, it’s just a Spring Training game, but it will be a game, and that’s better than no games. And, as always, there will be things to watch and storylines to track once spring games begin. Workouts and live batting practice and all that are nice, but games tell you what you need to know.

The Yankees have a fairly set roster and thus fewer major storylines than usual this spring – there’s nothing nearly as significant as “who will play shortstop?” going on this year – but there are still a few to monitor. Here, in no particular order, are five storylines I plan to follow this Spring Training.

Rodón (and Nestor too)

This one is pretty obvious. Carlos Rodón’s first season in pinstripes was an injury-riddled disaster, and for the Yankees to get back to the postseason, they need him to be effective. I’m not sure the Yankees will ever get 2021-22 Rodón, but he can’t do a 6.85 ERA in 64.1 innings again. That could be a season killer. ZiPS projects a 3.86 ERA (3.70 FIP) in 114.1 innings. Even that’s likely not good enough, innings-wise.

Right away last spring it was clear Rodón wasn’t right. His velocity was down in his first Grapefruit League start, even relative to where it usually is in Spring Training, and the Yankees shut him down with a forearm strain soon thereafter. Rodón came to camp noticeably slimmer this year and he’s looked good the first few days of camp. From Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d):

At this time last year, (Matt) Blake said Rodón’s velocity in his bullpen sessions was around 85-88 mph and his live batting practices were 88-91 mph with his fastball touching 92 mph. This year, his velocity is up to 88-90 mph in the bullpen and his live batting practices have been 94-95 mph with his fastball touching 97 earlier this week. It’s a welcome sign for Rodón, who ended the season with his fastball averaging 93.6 mph in his ill-fated outing versus Kansas City.

“There’s just another gear to it,” Blake said on Friday of Rodón’s fastball. “It just looks like he’s moving more athletically with a little more power. All of that is coming together.”

That’s all well and good, but in the year 2024, we don’t need to rely on word of mouth velocity readings. The Yankees play almost all their Spring Training games in Statcast parks and we’ll have reliable velocity data on Rodón (and everyone else) pretty soon. I’m glad Rodón looks good in early workouts. I just need to see more before I fully buy into Rodón bouncing back.

Also, velocity was not Rodón’s problem last year. His velocity and fastball/slider shapes were right in line with 2021 and 2022. His problem was execution. He was in the middle of the plate way too often, and as a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, it led to a lot of home runs. Velocity is important but it is only one piece of the pie. We should pay attention to Rodón’s location and execution as best as we can this spring.

(Rodón’s curveball and changeup are worth watching this spring too, and how often he uses them. Spring Training pitch usage isn’t particularly predictive though. A lot of days guys will work on something specific and maybe throw a pitch more than normal. Spring pitch usage only means so much, so don’t obsess over it.)

Nestor Cortes belongs here too. He’s coming off two rotator cuff strains, and last week he admitted he was having a hard time getting “over the hump” during his offseason throwing program, as he put it. It wasn’t until he shifted his throwing program from at home in Miami to the complex in Tampa, where he worked with the trainers, that Cortes was able to make progress. That sounds … not great?

“I felt like I wasn’t getting any progress after about 10 or 15 days (in Miami),” Nestor told Bryan Hoch. “These guys know my arm here. They know how it moves, how it works. I trusted the process, worked my tail off with the shoulder, trying to get as strong as possible. I’ve felt good ever since.”

Cortes has never been a hard-thrower, but again, velocity is a piece of the pie, and his 2021-22 breakout was fueled in part by increased velocity. Nestor at 88-89 mph is replacement level. Nestor at 92-93 mph with a few 95s is pretty darn effective. Here’s a fun average velocity graph:

That line does not need to continue trending up – I hope it does though! – but it can’t go backwards either. Well, it can, but it would likely mean a less effective version of Cortes. I feel pretty confident that, as long as he’s healthy, Nestor will be good. Maybe that’s foolish of me, and it is a big if, but Cortes has the guts and pitching smarts and weapons to succeed as long as he’s in a good place physically.

Last season the Yankees received 127.2 innings and -0.4 WAR from Rodón and Cortes. Nestor threw 158.1 innings with +4.3 WAR on his own in 2022. I’m not sure it’s accurate to say the season hinges on these two being healthy and productive, but they are important, and neither was right in Spring Training last year (remember Nestor’s hamstring?). A healthy camp in which both look like their 2022 selves would be welcome, even though it wouldn’t guarantee they’re all the way out of the woods.

Cole and Wells, Wells and Cole

I feel like we talk about this every spring. Will anyone catch Gerrit Cole, who’s had a proclivity for personal catchers since he was with the Pirates, other than his personal catcher? Jose Trevino was Cole's personal catcher much of 2022 and all of 2023 until his season-ending wrist surgery. Ben Rortvedt took over after that, and helped guide Cole as he put the finishing touches on his Cy Young season.

Now Trevino is working his way back from a calf strain and Rortvedt doesn’t appear to have a place on the Opening Day roster if everyone is healthy. Maybe he’ll sneak through waivers and the Yankees can stash him in Triple-A, but it’s hard to see how Trevino and Rortvedt and Austin Wells all fit on the roster if they’re all healthy. All indications are the Yankees will go with Trevino and Wells at catcher this season.

Spring Training is the time to try new things and Wells has yet to catch Cole in a big league game. He did catch him in the bullpen over the weekend, according to Kirschner, but bullpens and games are very different things. This is a box the Yankees should check in Spring Training. You don’t want the first time Wells catches Cole in a game is a game that counts.

Results may not matter in Spring Training but usage can be telling. Pairing Cole and Wells at some point is a no-brainer, especially with Trevino set to miss a few weeks. Not putting Cole and Wells together could be an indication of several things. Cole flat out refusing to throw to Wells, Wells not being a lock to make the Opening Day roster, Rortvedt’s place in the organization is more secure than we realize, etc.

Keep in mind that it doesn’t have to work! Cole and Wells as a battery could work out poorly, making it clear Trevino should be behind the plate when the ace starts. That’s valuable information too. You’d rather find out now that Cole and Wells don’t work great together than in, say, June at Fenway Park. That would give the two of them a chance to iron things out and get on the same page for when the games do matter.

Peraza and signs of life

Although he’s only 23, this feels like a pretty big season for Oswald Peraza. He’s played two years and change at Triple-A and done what he needs to do there, and his admittedly brief MLB cameos haven’t been impressive. Peraza’s hit .216/.298/.306 (75 wRC+) with a 38.8% whiff rate against non-fastballs and an 85.8 mph average exit velocity. His glove is great! But it can’t be all he brings to the table.

Anthony Volpe won the shortstop job fair and square last Spring Training. Peraza didn’t exactly make the decision difficult though. He hit .190/.306/.310 during Grapefruit League play and Aaron Boone, who would sooner tell you Tuesday comes before Monday than criticize one of his players, said he didn’t like Peraza’s at-bats. “For the most part, he’s been alright,” Boone said. That’s about as harsh as it gets for Boone.

There is playing time to be had. DJ LeMahieu is penciled in as the starting third baseman and he’ll turn 36 in July. Say what you want about his second half last year. The fact is LeMahieu hit .243/.327/.390 (101 wRC+) with by far the worst strikeout rate (22.2%) of his career last season, and he has a .375 SLG in close to 1,800 plate appearances the last three years. Players this age typically don’t get better.

Peraza can’t sleepwalk through a .240/.300/.350 camp. I mean, he can, he’ll probably make the team anyway given the lack of backup shortstop candidates, but we really need to start seeing something from the kid. There will be playing time available at third base this year and earning that playing time begins right now in Spring Training. For some guys, spring performance matters, and Peraza’s one of them.

The next bullpen find

This falls under the umbrella of “things we watch for every Spring Training,” but I figure it’s worth expanding on. The Yankees have a thing for unearthing good relievers. Last year it was Ian Hamilton, three years ago it was Lucas Luetge, etc. They’ve done it more than once. (There was no pop up reliever in 2022 because that was a weird, short camp after the lockout. No one threw even 10 innings for the Yankees that spring.)

Scott Effross’ back surgery opened up a bullpen spot and the Yankees have a small army of candidates to fill it, including guys on the 40-man roster (Ron Marinaccio, Cody Morris, etc.) and players in camp as non-roster invitees (Nick Burdi, Duane Underwood Jr., etc.). And really, that bullpen spot figures to be a revolving door to begin the season. Guys will be shuttled in and out as fresh arms are needed.

Still, Spring Training is when the Hamiltons and Luetges grab everyone’s attention and put themselves on the map. My pick for this spring’s breakout reliever: Yerry De Los Santos. A recently turned 26-year-old sinker/slider guy who had a 3.33 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 24.1 innings with the Pirates last year. He has a track record of getting grounders and limiting exit velocity, two things the Yankees prioritize.

In addition to the ground ball/weak contact thing, I have another more convoluted reason for picking De Los Santos as my spring breakout reliever: the Yankees signed him on Nov. 17th. That is very early for a minor league contract guy. Minor league free agency usually doesn’t pick up until after the Rule 5 Draft, when teams no longer have to tie up Triple-A reserve spots to protect these guys from the minor league phase.

Signing De Los Santos so early in the offseason suggests the Yankees considered him a priority. I’m sure Matt Blake has something in mind to either get him to the next level or help him become more consistent, and the Yankees didn’t want to risk him going elsewhere. Whether it’s De Los Santos or someone else, it’s the time of year to pay attention to nondescript relievers, and see who stands out from the pack.

(It’s been written in a few places that non-roster righty Nick Burdi looks really good early in camp. It’s never been a question of stuff with Burdi. He just has a long, long injury history.)

Cabrera’s switch-hitting (or lack thereof)

Last Sept. 17th in Pittsburgh, the switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera batted left-handed against the left-handed throwing Ryan Borucki. Cabrera struck out on six pitches (video) and it was his only left-on-left at-bat with the Yankees, but it was not his last of 2023. Last week Cabrera told Greg Joyce he hit left-handed exclusively in winter ball, and indicated he’s going to continue working at.

“I think I have the ability to hit righty,” Cabrera told Joyce. “I just wanted to get more at-bats lefty-lefty to get more ready at the moment I need to be lefty-lefty.”

Cabrera’s career output is very bad from both sides of the plate – 78 wRC+ as a lefty and 79 wRC+ as a righty – though the underlying plate discipline numbers are much better as a lefty hitter. We’re not working with the biggest of samples, but the difference here is significant:

Cabrera is more comfortable as a left-handed batter. The plate discipline numbers reflect it and the fact he hit from the left side exclusively in winter ball tells us that. Joyce says Cabrera hit some as a righty last week, so he hasn’t abandoned switch-hitting yet, but certainly this seems to be something he’s kicking around. It’s worth tracking how often he hits from each side of the plate (and when) this spring.

* * *

Those aren’t the most important storylines. They’re just the storylines I plan to pay extra attention to the next few weeks. Other more important Spring Training storylines include Anthony Rizzo’s return from post-concussion symptoms, how Giancarlo Stanton looks, young pitchers who stand out (word is Yoendrys Gómez is lighting it up early on), so on and so forth. That stuff is pretty obvious, right? Right. Grapefruit League games begin Saturday. Can’t wait.

2. Yankees claim Moore. Another waiver claim. That’s seven since the end of the World Series. The Yankees made seven waiver claims in the previous 14 months. This time the Yankees claimed righty reliever McKinley Moore from the Phillies. Lou Trivino was placed on the 60-day injured list to clear the 40-man roster spot. McKinley, eh? Maybe skip the trip to Buffalo with the RailRiders.

ANYWAY, the 25-year-old Moore is a legit bullpen prospect. A few smart Phillies writers I know say it was a surprise Moore was DFAed last week (for Spencer Turnbull) and they assumed Philadelphia had a trade lined up, but nope. He went on waivers and the Yankees claimed him. Being a legit bullpen prospect doesn’t mean Moore’s top 30 in the system or anything like that. Only that he's a bit more interesting than the usual waiver fodder.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Moore, a 2019 14th round pick, the No. 35 prospect in Philadelphia’s system prior to the trade. Eric Longenhagen had him at No. 18 in the system in January. Here’s what Longenhagen had to say last month (here’s video):

Moore stood out pretty much immediately upon entry into pro ball because of his near-elite arm strength. He was sitting 95-98 mph and bending in a plus mid-to-upper-80s slider on the White Sox backfields in 2021, one of the few breakout prospects in a scant farm system. The Phillies acquired him a year later in a trade for former first rounder Adam Haseley, and Moore had a better 2022 than anticipated from a strike-throwing standpoint, “only” walking 26 batters in 49.2 innings at Reading. He entered 2023 camp looking svelte and trim compared to prior years, but he was again excessively wild and walked more than a batter per inning in 2023, though he looked quite good during the last month of the season.

Moore scatters upper-90s fastballs all over the place and has a big breaking upper-80s sweeper. His new-ish physique might help him better control his body and repeat his release as he gets comfortable with it over time. If that’s the case, he’ll establish himself in a consistent relief role. Until then, he’s a classic up/down reliever whose stuff is good enough to miss big league bats but whose control isn’t good enough to inspire regular confidence in his manager. He and Andrew Baker are hard-throwing mustangs with big “if it clicks” ceilings in this system.

Moore is listed at 6-foot-6 and 225 lbs., so he’s Yankees-sized, and he allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings in his first taste of MLB last year. In Triple-A, he walked 17 in 13 innings, so that ain’t great. The Phillies have gotten pretty good at coaching up pitchers, and letting McKinley go for nothing is a good indication they aren’t sold on him ever throwing strikes. This feels like a possible “they know something we don’t” situation.

That said, smart teams make mistakes too, and sometimes a change of scenery can get a guy on track. And we’re talking about a waiver claim here. The acquisition cost was minimal and Moore is essentially the 43rd player on the 40-man roster given the three 60-day injured list guys. A reliever with upper-90s gas and a good slider is always worth a roll of the dice when you have roster flexibility.

As for that flexibility, it is pretty much exhausted. Everyone who could go on the 60-day injured list is on the 60-day injured list, and Moore might be at the front of a DFA line that also includes Jordan Groshans and I guess Nick Ramirez? Moore has two minor league options remaining, and if he can get on track in Triple-A, great. If not, so be it. It’s a dice roll early in Spring Training. You can only expect so much.

Let’s assume everyone stays healthy and Ron Marinaccio gets the final big league bullpen spot, replacing the injured Scott Effross. In that case, here are the candidates for the Triple-A Scranton pitching staff:

Rotation
RHP Clayton Beeter
RHP Luis Gil
RHP Yoendrys Gómez
RHP Cody Poteet
LHP Tanner Tully (non-roster)
RHP Will Warren

Bullpen
LHP Clayton Andrews
LHP Edgar Barclay (not in camp as non-roster invitee)
RHP Nick Burdi (non-roster)
RHP Yerry De Los Santos (non-roster)
RHP Joey Gerber (non-roster)
LHP Anthony Misiewicz (non-roster)
RHP McKinley Moore
RHP Cody Morris
LHP Oddanier Mosqueda (non-roster)
LHP Nick Ramirez
RHP Dennis Santana (non-roster)
RHP Duane Underwood Jr. (non-roster)
RHP Art Warren (non-roster)

Gerber and Warren are working their way back from injuries, but even excluding them, that’s 17 pitchers for 13 Triple-A pitching spots, all of whom have pitched at the level before except Gómez. Having 17 pitchers for 13 spots in the middle of February is about right, yeah. There will be injuries in Spring Training, always are, plus there might be opt outs coming before Opening Day (Santana? Underwood?).

We’ll see what Moore brings to the table in Spring Training and whether he even makes it to Opening Day on the 40-man roster. There is still some recent prospect shine here, so right away he is more interesting than the typical waiver claim, but then again dudes who throw hard and can’t find the plate aren’t exactly uncommon. Hopefully the Yankees unlock something. If not, oh well. Keep throwing darts.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Bob Nightengale says the Yankees still have “serious interest” in Blake Snell, and are waiting to see if his asking price drops. Of course, if Snell’s price drops, more teams will be interested, and there will be more competition. If the Yankees land Snell or Jordan Montgomery on a team-friendly (relatively speaking) contract, great. I would be thrilled. I’m not gonna hold my breath though. I think the Yankees are done with significant moves, but I also acknowledge conditions are ripe to make a significant move. Far better than at any point in the last few springs … So long, Matt Krook. The Yankees traded him to the Orioles for cash over the weekend. They DFAed him last week to make room on the 40-man roster for Jordan Groshans. You'd rather trade a player out of the division if at all possible, but it's unlikely to matter here. Krook's a bottom of the 40-man roster guy. The fact the Yankees found a trade for Krook tells us he wasn't making it through waivers, so the Yankees were able to get something in return, even if it's only a little cash ... And finally, last week Rob Manfred announced this will be his final term as commissioner. He will retire when his contract is up in Jan. 2029. Bud Selig said he was going to retire only to come back on a new contract at least twice, though I’ll take Manfred at his word. Whoever replaces Manfred – Dan Halem, MLB’s chief labor negotiator, seems to be the early favorite – is going to operate the same way. The owners will still want to cut costs and crush the MLBPA come 2029. The biggest difference might be that the next commissioner won’t be a bumbling idiot when he speaks publicly. Manfred is so condescending whenever he has a microphone in front of him. Just last week he implied Athletics fans who are sad the team is leaving could root for the Giants. Baseball needs someone who represents the game better. Five years is a long time, but right now, I would say Manfred’s legacy is presiding over the sport’s first work stoppage in 27 years. That seems like a bigger deal than the expanded postseason, the pitch clock, calling the commissioner’s trophy a “piece of metal,” his response to the Astros’ and Red Sox’s sign-stealing scandals, etc. Maybe his legacy will ultimately be successfully ushering in MLB’s post-cable streaming era. That’s the biggest challenge coming his way. Me? I’ll remember the wholly unnecessary lockout.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)