December 4th, 2023: Soto, Grisham, Gonzalez, Polanco, Rule 5 Draft

The 2023 Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville and it felt wrong to wait until Tuesday to run this post, so let’s get it out there bright and early Monday morning, before things start happening. Remember, the draft lottery is Tuesday night (5:30pm ET on MLB Network). The Yankees have a chance at the No. 1 pick because they missed the postseason, but it’s a long shot. A long shot is still better than the 0% odds the Yankees would’ve had through the reverse order of the standings. Here now is today’s post and here’s what I wrote about Friday’s Juan Soto rumors. I made that post free for everyone figuring it was an extra post and an important topic, and an opportunity to drive more people to the site. I promise free posts won’t become a regular thing. That was a one-time deal. I won’t start giving away the content you pay for. Let’s get to it.

1. Latest rumors and roster moves. Trades! Signing! Dogs and cats living together! The Yankees haven’t done anything notable yet this offseason – the Cardinals are really the only team to do anything significant thus far this offseason – though that’ll change, maybe even very soon. Here’s the latest from the hot stove league.

The latest on Soto

As far as I can tell, there has been no significant movement on the Juan Soto front since my post Friday. He is no closer (nor further away) from being traded. Here’s the latest from Kevin Acee, Héctor Gómez, Jon Heyman, and Bob Nightengale:

• San Diego asked for Mike King, Clarke Schmidt, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and two prospects for Soto and Trent Grisham. That is … a lot.
• The Yankees made a counterproposal at some point and the two sides haven’t spoken since. Talks have been described as being at a “stalemate.”
• Talks between the Padres and Blue Jays are “intensifying,” and one report even called Toronto the favorite. The Blue Jays are trying for Shohei Ohtani and said to be prioritizing him.
• There’s a thing going around about a possible three-team trade that sends Soto to the Yankees, Corbin Burnes to the Padres, and Yankees prospects to those two teams.

That last bit about the three-team trade might be speculation more than a hard rumor. It’s hard to tell. As for the Blue Jays thing, timing is everything. The Yankees balked at San Diego’s big ask, then suddenly talks with an AL East rival were intensifying. Notice all the Yankees names (King, Thorpe, etc.) are out there, yet no Blue Jays names have been reported.

That isn’t to say the Blue Jays aren’t a real threat for Soto. I think they are. Right now, this feels like a “the seller (Padres) leaks they’re talking to a division rival (Blue Jays) to try to get the buyer (Yankees) to blink” play. If it's true the Padres want King and Schmidt and Thorpe and more, you can understand the Yankees saying no and waiting this out a bit. When the Cubs or Blue Jays put a comparable offer on the table, then it'll get interesting.

I think Soto to the Yankees is the most likely outcome but I do not think it’s a foregone conclusion, and I wouldn’t even go as high as 50/50. I would almost always pick the field over any one single team. I think Soto to the Yankees is the most likely outcome. I also acknowledge the Yankees are much more likely to screw this up now than at any other point in the Brian Cashman era.

Hopefully this gets done at the Winter Meetings a) and the Yankees get Soto, and b) so we can move on to the rest of the offseason. The Yankees need a lot more than Soto, and the sooner they wrap this up, the sooner they can move on to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a center fielder, and all those other things they need.

Grisham as a possible trade target

As noted several times already, Grisham has come up during Soto trade talks. It sounds like San Diego is pushing to include Grisham and his salary in the trade more than the Yankees are asking him for, but I don’t know that for sure. MLBTR projects a $4.9M salary next season, and Grisham has another year of arbitration-eligibility after that.

Grisham, 27, slashed .198/.315/.352 (91 wRC+) with 13 homers and 15 steals in 2023, and that is a step up from his .184/.284/.341 (84 wRC+) line in 2022. He’s a very good defensive center fielder and you kinda have to be to stay in a contender's lineup with that offense. Grisham can go get it in center and you can live with his bat in the No. 9 spot if you get enough offense from the No. 1-8 hitters (the Yankees currently do not).

I wrote about Grisham as a trade target last offseason and what I wrote then holds up pretty well. Grisham hit the ball harder than ever in 2023. He posted comfortably above average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel (11.8%) rates, but his approach seems completely broken. He’s incredibly passive – Grisham has some of the lowest swing rates in the game – and his chase rate is gradually ticking up. He’s swinging at all the wrong pitches.

• 2021: 16.5% chase rate and 60.7% in-zone swing rate
• 2022: 20.8% and 54.2%
• 2023: 22.8% and 57.6%
  (MLB averages: 28.8% and 65.5%)

Not chasing is good. Not swinging at pitches in the zone is kinda bad. Granted, not every pitch in the zone is a good pitch to hit, but Grisham’s in-zone swing rate is so low (13th lowest among qualified hitters in 2023) that he’s surely taking some hittable pitches. And when you take a lot of pitches in the zone, you’re taking strikes, and putting yourself in unfavorable counts.

(Robert Orr (subs. req’d) did great work recently quantifying approach. He named his new stat SEAGER – SElective AGgression Engagement Rate – because Corey is the best in the game at laying off pitches out of the zone while jumping on anything hittable in the zone. Grisham placed 296th among the 365 players in Orr’s sample in SEAGER. His swing decisions need work.)

Is it as simple as telling Grisham to be more aggressive and swing at more strikes, particularly early in the count? The Padres have probably tried that, no? It can be difficult to rewire a player and change his entire approach. Passive just may be who Grisham is, which would be a shame, because there are enough underlying skills (hard-hit ability and solid contact rates) to suggest there’s a good hitter lurking in there.

Grisham will play the entire 2024 season at age 27 and, at minimum, you’re getting very good center field defense. The under-the-hood numbers indicate he could be better at the plate, but that has been the case for several years now, and at some point you are what you are. Grisham fits because the Yankees need a lefty hitting center fielder. He’s a bit of a gamble though.

I would prefer Kevin Kiermaier to Grisham. He’ll cost more money and he comes with red flags of his own (age and injury history), though I don’t trust the Yankees to get Grisham’s bat on track, and I really don’t want to overcomplicate the Soto trade. Just give up the prospects for Soto. Don’t get cute and take on other pricey players to try to lower the prospect cost slightly.

If additional salary relief is a must to get a Soto deal done, the Yankees could take on Matt Carpenter’s $5.5M rather than Grisham’s projected $4.9M. The Yankees can then get Kiermaier or Jung-Hoo Lee or Cody Bellinger to play center, and see whether Carpenter still has anything to offer as a bench bat. If not, they can release him and move on*. It’s only one year of him.

* This is a nice idea but I think we all know it probably wouldn’t play out that way. If the Yankees add Carpenter as a bench bat we could be in for five months of Aaron Boone saying “he’s close” while the 38-year-old Carpenter runs an 86 wRC+ again.

I can see the logic behind trading for Grisham. He’s a very good center fielder and the Yankees definitely need lefty bats. They need good lefty bats though. Not a lefty bat with a .191 AVG and 87 wRC+ in nearly 1,100 plate appearances the last two years. The Yankees tried the “just get anyone who hits lefty” thing with Jake Bauers and Franchy Cordero this year. It didn’t work.

I guess the best way to put it is, if the Yankees get Grisham in a Soto trade, I would understand it but not love it. Grisham likely needs to revamp his approach to begin tapping into his offensive upside, and that’s not easy. Pick up Grisham to play center, and adding a third baseman with some thump would feel necessary to me. Grisham’s bat ain’t enough.

Yankees claim Gonzalez

For the first time since the Harrison Bader trade, the Yankees have added a position player to the 40-man roster from outside the organization*. The Yankees claimed outfielder Oscar Gonzalez off waivers from the Guardians over the weekend, the team announced. They still have three open 40-man roster spots, plus a few easily droppable players on the 40-man.

* I guess technically Greg Allen counts. He was on a minor league deal with the Red Sox when the Yankees got him in a cash trade in May, and immediately put him on the 40-man and called him up. But as far as a Major League free agent or a trade/waiver claim that sent the player from another team’s 40-man to the Yankees’ 40-man, Gonzalez is the first since the Bader trade.

You may remember Gonzalez, 26 in January, from his walk-off single in Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS (video). The Yankees won the series, so no biggie. Gonzalez also hit the walk-off home run that punched Cleveland’s ticket to the ALDS that year (video). A year ago getting this guy on waivers would have sounded crazy. What a difference 12 months make. (I answered a mailbag question about an Oswaldo Cabrera for Gonzalez trade in May.)

As a rookie in 2022, Gonzalez slashed .296/.327/.461 (125 wRC+) with 11 homers and a better than average 19.6% strikeout rate in 382 plate appearances. He was Cleveland’s primary No. 5 hitter and a fan favorite because he uses the SpongeBob theme song as his walk-up music. “(I use it) because kids love that song and this is a kid’s game after all,” he told Mandy Bell.

Gonzalez cratered to .214/.239/.312 (49 wRC+) in 180 plate appearances this year and found himself in Triple-A in May. He hit .287/.323/.496 (98 wRC+) with 13 homers at that level. Here’s more on Gonzalez in Triple-A:

• Average exit velocity: 89.3 mph (Triple-A average: 87.4 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 42.1% (Triple-A average: 36.2%)
• Barrel rate: 19.3% (Triple-A average: 17.2%)
• Chase rate: 43.6% (Triple-A average: 27.1%)

That chase rate does not lie. Gonzalez is an extreme hacker (45.6% chase rate in MLB in 2022). His power is real – Gonzalez hit 31 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021 – but you needn’t pitch him in the zone. He will chase and get himself out. Guys like this can put together 300-400 good plate appearances now and then. More often than not they frustrate.

Also, Gonzalez is a poor defender in the outfield corners. He’s at -8 DRS and -11 OAA in 981.1 career innings at the big league level, or roughly 110 games worth. Gonzalez has to hit and hit a lot to help his team, and he has an overly aggressive approach upper level pitchers can exploit. Players with this skill set tend to fall into the Quad-A bucket, though they are capable of contributing at the MLB level here and there.

(Guardians outfielders hit .250/.312/.342 (84 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 2023. 18 home runs! Aaron Judge hit 18 homers in a 46-game span at one point this year. Kinda telling that Cleveland’s outfielders were that bad and Gonzalez still didn’t get a longer look despite what he did in 2022. Then again, the Guardians gave away Will Benson and Nolan Jones last offseason. Maybe they’re just bad at player evaluation now.)

Gonzalez will have no impact on the Yankees’ efforts to acquire a new center fielder or a new left fielder. This is a depth move because, right now, the Yankees have very little outfield depth. This was the outfield depth chart before the Gonzalez claim:

1. Aaron Judge
(a gap so big the Grand Canyon would be jealous)
2. Everson Pereira
(2.5. Oswaldo Cabrera?)
3. Estevan Florial
4. Brandon Lockridge, I guess
5. Elijah Dunham

Gonzalez has two minor league options remaining, so the Yankees can stash him in Triple-A and call him up whenever there’s an injury. And there will be injuries. They are inevitable. This is a sensible waiver claim given the outfield depth situation, assuming Gonzalez doesn’t get shoehorned into the cleanup spot 45 times next year because the Yankees didn’t adequately address the outfield again.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Jorge Polanco. For the first time since Johan Santana outdueled Mike Mussina in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, the Twins won a postseason game this year. Their 18-game postseason losing streak was the longest in the history of the four major North American pro sports leagues. The Twins even won a postseason round this year. Good for them.

And to reward the fan base for sticking through the historic postseason losing streak, ownership is cutting payroll. The Twins are among the teams in danger of losing their Bally Sports television deal in the wake of Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy. Nothing is official yet on that front, but there is enough concern that ownership doesn’t want to overextend itself (or they don’t want to pass up the excuse to reduce payroll).

"We've pushed our payroll to heights that we had never pushed it before with the support, certainly, of ownership,” POBO Derek Falvey told Bobby Nightengale at the GM Meetings last month. ”We know there is some natural ebb and flow to that. Will it be where it was last year? I don't expect that. I expect it to be less than that.”

The Twins had a franchise record $153.7M payroll this past season and Dan Hayes (subs. req’d) says payroll could dip into the $125M to $140M range. According to Cot’s, the Twins have $127M on the books for 2024 right now, including arbitration projections. They need at least one starter to help replace Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, a center fielder, bullpen help, and general depth.

Shedding the two years and $20M they owe backup catcher Christian Vázquez would be ideal, though I’m not sure that’s possible. Max Kepler had an unbelievable second half (.306/.377/.549 and 154 wRC+) and is owed $10M. The Twins could finally trade him. Kyle Farmer is projected to make $6.6M next year and seems superfluous given the rest of the roster.

The Twins could also trade Jorge Polanco, their erstwhile second baseman. He’s owed $10.5M next season and, as Aaron Gleeman (subs. req’d) notes, Minnesota has the infield depth to trade him. Carlos Correa isn't going anywhere, Edouard Julien took over at second base this year, Royce Lewis is now entrenched at third, and top prospects Austin Martin and Brooks Lee figure to debut at some point in 2024.

“He is someone who is available,” Jon Morosi recently reported. “And people around the industry think there is a very strong chance that the Twins will in fact move Jorge Polanco this winter.”

Now 30, Polanco is a fine hitter, slashing .255/.335/.454 (118 wRC+) in 2023 and .267/.337/.458 (117 wRC+) over the last five years. He posted a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in each of the last four 162-game seasons, so Polanco has consistently been about 20% better than the league average hitter. He’s a very good player and would fetch a very nice trade package.

The Yankees have a full infield, but only in theory. Gleyber Torres is a year away from free agency and a trade candidate. DJ LeMahieu is 35 now and he’s been just okay the last three years, and if he’s not needed at third base, he might be needed to cover first with Anthony Rizzo coming back from post-concussion symptoms. Oswald Peraza hasn’t shown much yet. Anthony Volpe, who hit .209/.283/.383 (84 wRC+), is somehow the most locked-in infielder on the roster.

All the focus is on Juan Soto and the outfield in general, but the Yankees need more offense beyond two new outfielders. Does the switch-hitting Polanco make sense as a trade target? Let’s dig in and see what he offers, and whether the Yankees should make a play for him.

Background

Originally signed as an international amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2009, Polanco came up through the system alongside Kepler (they were minor league roommates) and their friendship is very wholesome. Polanco debuted in 2014, stuck for good in 2016, and had his breakout season in 2018. He’s been a mainstay since. Polanco went to the All-Star Game in 2019 and even received a few MVP votes that year.

Offense

Like I said earlier, Polanco’s been roughly 20% better than the league average hitter the last four 162-game seasons. He is a switch-hitter, which is great for baseball purposes and extremely annoying for analysis purposes because we have to do everything twice. Here are Polanco’s last three seasons:

The left side of the plate is Polanco’s strong side, which is ideal because right-handed pitchers throw about three times as many innings as left-handers (it was 2.8 times as many in 2023). Also, good gravy look at those ground ball and pull rates! You think Polanco will like hitting in Yankee Stadium as a lefty with a 32.6% ground ball rate and 51.4% pull rate? Me too.

(Pulling the ball to left field in Yankee Stadium isn’t the best, it’s pretty big out there in the gap, though Polanco’s ground ball and pull rates as a righty aren’t a dealbreaker for me.)

Polanco does not strike out, swing and miss, or chase excessively. Like most switch-hitters, he has different swings from each side of the plate. As a righty, he covers the inner half and that’s about it. As a lefty, Polanco is better able to cover the entire plate. He can hold his own as a righty, but clearly, the left side is Polanco’s stronger side.

The surface stats are good, the underlying numbers support it, and the batted ball profile strongly suggests Polanco can take advantage of the short porch as a left-handed hitter. It would be nice if he hit .300 or so, but Polanco is more or less exactly what the Yankees need offensively. A lefty bat (or switch-hitter, in this case) with power who doesn’t whiff excessively.

Defense and baserunning

Polanco began his big league career as a shortstop and it took until 2021 for the Twins to either realize or admit it wasn’t working. He’s a career -42 DRS and -31 OAA defender at short. The Twins put Polanco at second in 2021 and he’s okay there, depending on your metric of choice: +2 DRS and -16 OAA. The eye test suggests OAA is more accurate, to be honest.

I’m not here to suggest replacing Gleyber with Polanco. I would want the Yankees to add Polanco to Torres (two good hitting infielders? what a concept!), and that’s doable because Polanco moved to third base late this season. Gleeman (subs. req’d) says Polanco volunteered to move to third because it allowed Julien to stay in the lineup at his most familiar position.

“I would say I need more work. That’s what we’re doing. We’re getting there,” Polanco told Betsy Helfand about his third base progress in August. “... It’s just a little bit different. It’s less time to react. We just need more work so we can get used to it.”

Polanco only played 125 innings at third base this season, postseason included, so the stats aren’t helpful (+0 DRS and +0 OAA). The Twins never did pull him for defense in the late innings, not even in October (they did pull him for a pinch-hitter against a lefty once), so they trusted him at the hot corner in important postseason games despite his lack of experience.

I’m not sure what the Twins are planning or what Polanco is doing this offseason, but in a perfect world, he would spend the offseason working out at third base, then getting further acclimated to the position in Spring Training. Give him a nice long runway to get familiar with the position and grow comfortable. Could he work his way to average? Or maybe -5 runs at worst? I’d take it.

As for running the bases, Polanco’s okay. He’s not going to change the game with his legs, good or bad. His sprint speed and home-to-first time (from both sides of the plate) are about average, he takes the extra base at a league average rate, and he’s 18-for-27 (67%) stealing bases the last three seasons. That’s a pretty bad success rate, especially with the new rules.

Polanco is very much a bat-first player. The batter’s box is where he most helps the team. The hope is his above-average bat will come with average (or even a tick below average) defense at third base after an offseason and Spring Training of work, and baserunning that doesn’t stand out either way. Above-average bat and hope the rest is average. That’s what to expect from Polanco.

Injury history

Now we get to the scary stuff. Polanco has been on the injured list five times the last two years and in those two years he played only 184 of 324 possible regular season games (57%), including only 80 games in 2023. Here is his injury history:

• November 2020: Right ankle surgery to remove a bone spur
• October 2020: Another right ankle surgery to remove another bone spur
• June 2022: Lower back tightness (missed 15 days)
• Late 2022: Left knee inflammation (missed 36 days)
• April 2023: Left knee inflammation (missed 25 days)
• May 2023: Left hamstring strain (missed 14 days)
• June and July 2023: Left hamstring strain (missed 49 days)

(This isn’t an injury, but Polanco served an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2018. He said he unknowingly took a supplement.)

The knee injury ended Polanco’s 2022 season in late August, and when he showed up to Spring Training this past season, it started barking again. I suppose the good news is his knee gave him no trouble once he returned in late April. The bad news is Polanco’s hamstring then began acting up. From 2016-21, Polanco was very healthy and durable. Now it’s one thing after another.

Keeping players on the field is not something the Yankees do well, and you kinda have to expect Polanco to miss time given his recent injury history. The Yankees could plug in LeMahieu and Peraza as necessary, and even use those two to give Polanco regular rest (particularly when there’s a lefty on the mound), but still, he comes with significant injury risk.

Contract status

The Twins signed Polanco to a five-year, $25.75M extension with two club options back in Feb. 2019. He is now in the club option years. Minnesota picked up his $10.5M option after the World Series and there’s another $12M club option ($750,000 buyout) for 2025. Here’s what it would mean for the Yankees, luxury tax-wise:

• 2024: $11.25M
• 2025: $11.25M if option is picked up, $0 if option is declined

You get taxed on the salary plus option buyout in 2024 (i.e. the guaranteed money) and then the salary minus buyout amount (because the buyout was already taxed in 2024) in 2025. Needless to say, Polanco with an $11.25M annual luxury tax hit is very reasonable, plus there’s an escape hatch next offseason should things go horribly wrong. That’s a very friendly contract for the Yankees.

What will he cost?

Two years ago the Blue Jays traded two top 10 prospects (Gunnar Hoglund and Kevin Smith) and two fringe top 30 prospects (Zack Logue and Kirby Snead) for two years of Matt Chapman. On paper, that’s a great trade benchmark for two years of Polanco. That said, the Athletics were aggressively tanking, and shedding money was their top priority.

The Twins are lowering payroll but, as far as I can tell, they’re not desperate to unload Polanco. They can play out the market, see what comes across their desk, and act if something makes sense. Keeping Polanco is not just plausible, it’s likely for the best. Minnesota can find other ways to cut salary, if necessary. I see three options with Polanco:

• Keep him and trim payroll another way.
• Trade him for an MLB player(s) and reallocate the money that way.
• Trade him for prospects and then do whatever with the money.

For the Yankees, that third bullet point is preferable. Dip into the system and trade prospects for Polanco. Don’t subtract from your MLB roster. Two years of Mike King for two years of Polanco seems entirely reasonable to me, but of course you’d rather keep King and use prospects to get Polanco. This trade is an easy yes, right? You agree to this, then yell “no backsies!”

In the real world, it’ll cost more to get Polanco. Most likely a lot more. There are no good second basemen (Polanco’s usual position) in free agency and the third base pickings are slim behind Chapman, who hit .205/.298/.361 (84 wRC+) after April, and Jeimer Candelario. Once those two sign, interest in Polanco will skyrocket. Vásquez and Sweeney is a fantasy.

Of course, there’s also the matter of Juan Soto. The Yankees are talking Soto with the Padres and they want him, and they’ll have to give up some good players to get him. King? Clarke Schmidt? Drew Thorpe? Who knows, but a potential Soto trade would change the calculus for Polanco. The Yankees may be hesitant to trade more pitching, etc.

I suspect a Polanco trade would look more like the Chapman trade (two top 10 prospects plus more) than what the Trade Value site says (two top 15-ish prospects). There are two very big x-factors in play here: Soto, and what the Twins want. Do they want to trade Polanco for an MLB pitcher to replace Gray and Maeda, or are they really okay accepting prospects?

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Yeah, I think so. Polanco’s bat certainly makes sense for the Yankees. The rest of the package is a bit more iffy. We don’t know how or even if Polanco can handle third base full-time, and his injury history is lengthy. I mean, five injured list stints in the last two years, including recurring knee and hamstring trouble. Injuries that repeat are extra red flag-y.

There’s also the “what would this mean for Soto?” question, and the “what would this mean for Gleyber?” question. In a perfect world, Hal Steinbrenner would suck it up for one (1) year and pay for Soto, Torres, Polanco, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and someone like Kevin Kiermaier to play center field. Go into the mid-$300M range, pay the luxury tax, put the best possible team on the field, then recalibrate when Soto and Torres come off the books next offseason.

This is not a perfect world though and Hal is unwilling to set new payroll records. He’ll wait for the Dodgers or Mets (or Padres) to raise the payroll bar, bellyache about it, then catch up 2-3 years and several missed opportunities later. In the real world, Hal’s world, Polanco is likely no more than a Plan B to Soto, not someone the Yankees would pick up to further improve the team around Soto.

3. Rule 5 Draft preview. The annual Rule 5 Draft will take place at 2pm ET on Wednesday. The Yankees haven’t made a Rule 5 Draft pick since Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyers in 2011, and, according to the MLB.com crew, the Yankees haven’t had a Rule 5 Draft pick stick since Billy Parker in 1973 (!). Every other team has had a Rule 5 Draft player stick since 2009.

The Yankees enter the Winter Meetings with three open 40-man roster spots plus more flexibility beyond that. I can’t say for sure they’ll make a Rule 5 Draft pick Wednesday. I’m just pointing out it’s been a good long while since conditions were this ripe for the Yankees to make a selection. They usually deal with a significant 40-man logjam in the offseason, but not this winter.

With that in mind, I figure a proper Rule 5 Draft preview is in order, though chances are this is a waste of time and effort on my part. Eh, whatever. What have I been doing all these years if not wasting time and effort on the Yankees? Let’s get into the Rule 5 Draft nitty-gritty.

How it works

The Rule 5 Draft is a mechanism designed to give players an opportunity to play in the big leagues, and not remain buried in the minors indefinitely. Generally speaking, college draftees can play three years in the minors before they have to go on the 40-man roster. High school draftees and international free agents can play four years in the minors before going on the 40-man.

Players taken in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire next season on their new team’s active MLB roster. If they go on the injured list, they have to spend at least 90 days on the active roster, otherwise the Rule 5 Draft rules carry over to next year. You can’t take an injured pitcher, stash him on the 60-day injured list all year, then say he satisfied the Rule 5 Draft requirements.

If the player sticks all year, he’s yours to keep, and the Rule 5 Draft roster rules no longer apply in subsequent years. Players who do not stick go on waivers, and if unclaimed, they get offered back to their original team. The Rule 5 Draft pick fee is $100,000 and you have to pay $50,000 to take a player back. There’s also a minor league phase. I’ll cover that in a little bit.

Players the Yankees could lose

Most Rule 5 Draft picks wind up back with their original team. 10 of the 33 players taken the last two years stuck, and it’s only that many because tanking teams like the Athletics (Ryan Noda), Tigers (Mason Englert), and pre-2023 Orioles (Tyler Wells) didn’t care about wins and losses, and kept their Rule 5 Draft pick on the roster all season regardless of performance.

The Yankees have had at least one player taken in each of the last seven Rule 5 Drafts (five times multiple Yankees were taken). The only notable losses are Trevor Stephan and Garrett Whitlock in 2020, when several players slipped through the cracks league-wide after the canceled pandemic season. Here are the notable Yankees prospects eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft:

• Catchers: Josh Breaux, Antonio Gomez
• Infielders: Jared Serna, Alex Vargas
• Outfielders: Elijah Dunham, Brandon Lockridge
• Righties: Carson Coleman, Matt Sauer, Mitch Spence
• Lefties: Edgar Barclay

The pitchers are most likely to get selected. Lower minors bats like Gomez, Serna, and Vargas are not hot Rule 5 Draft commodities and Dunham and Lockridge are meh. Only five position players were taken in the last two Rule 5 Drafts (33 total picks). It’s the pitch data draft now. Teams look for guys with good pitch traits, Double-A or Triple-A success, and roll the dice.

Spence is a bit funky. He’s the opposite of a “his fastball has carry at the top of the zone” guy. Spence gets a lot of sink on all his pitches, more than usual given their velocity and spin. He’s an outlier in that regard. Sauer is a pretty standard 95-and-a-slider type. Coleman missed the entire 2023 season with elbow surgery but has a bat-missing fastball.

I expect the Yankees to have someone taken in the Rule 5 Draft because they always have someone taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Sauer and Spence are the best bets. A possible sleeper: Ryan Anderson, a 6-foot-6 low slot lefty who had a 27.9% strikeout rate and 57.1% ground ball rate between High-A and Double-A this year. He’s a low-90s sinker, slider, changeup guy.

Possible targets for the Yankees

The Yankees are not going to find a new left-handed hitting center fielder in the Rule 5 Draft. I mean, they could find one, but he probably won’t be any good. Realistically, the only places the Yankees can stash a Rule 5 Draft pick are in the bullpen and on the bench, and even the bench is a stretch. An Albert Abreu replacement as the last guy in the bullpen is the best bet.

I am not here to say the Yankees should take a specific player. The Rule 5 Draft isn’t the place to dig your heels in. The Yankees should trade for Juan Soto, I’ll say that, but to say they should go after a specific player in the Rule 5 Draft? Nah. What I'll do instead is dig through MLB.com’s and Baseball America’s (subs. req’d) Rule 5 Draft previews, and pick a few interesting names. Sound good? Here are five possible Rule 5 Draft targets.

RHP Coleman Crow, Mets (video): Crow, 22, went from the Angels to the Mets in the Eduardo Escobar trade and he had Tommy John surgery in August, so he’ll miss 2024. The idea here is taking Crow, putting him on the 60-day injured list in 2024, then using his two 30-day rehab windows in 2025 (Tommy John surgery guys get two 30-day rehab windows) to evaluate him and see whether he’s worth adding to the active MLB roster for 90 days to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft requirements. If not, you send him back. It’s a free trial, basically. Crow is a lower arm slot fastball, slider, curveball guy with good command. In June, Eric Longenhagen said Crow is “going to be a reliable member of a big league staff in some capacity, either as a fifth starter (projected here) or a strike-throwing long man.”

1B Troy Johnston, Marlins (video): I felt compelled to include a position player even though I think the chances the Yankees take a position player are very small. They’re much more likely to take a pitcher in the Rule 5 Draft. Anyway, Johnston hit .307/.399/.549 (145 wRC+) with 26 homers and promising strikeout (18.0%) and swinging strike (11.3%) rates between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. He’s a lefty hitting first base only guy, and he’s already 26, so what you see is what you’re going to get. Johnston could be a cheap Jake Bauers replacement, though his lack of defensive versatility will make it tough to carry him on the bench all year.

LHP Juan Sanchez, Giants: Sanchez turned only 23 last month and he struck out 26.4% of the batters he faced between Double-A and Triple-A this year, and his 16.7% swinging strike rate ranked 20th among the 1,045 minor leaguers with 50 innings pitched in full season leagues. He is primarily a low-90s sinker, mid-80s changeup reliever who also has a breaking ball, and Baseball America (subs. req’d) notes “Sanchez meets the benchmarks for previous Rule 5 picks that stuck across ERA, FIP, K%, BB% and innings.” The Yankees do need lefty bullpen help. I wouldn’t throw Sanchez out there against Rafael Devers late in a one-run game, at least not right away, but he could fit as the second lefty in the bullpen initially.

RHP Justin Slaten, Rangers (video): Relievers who strike out 37.4% of the batters they faced in Double-A, then 10 of 32 batters in a late season Triple-A cameo, usually hear their name called in the Rule 5 Draft. In July, Longenhagen wrote Slaten was “sitting 94-97 with plus-plus carry (after moving to the bullpen this year), bending in his usual knee-buckling low-to-mid-80s slider, and he’s also added a cutter.” He’s a straight one-inning air-it-out reliever and it was considered a surprise when Texas did not add him to their 40-man roster.

RHP CJ Van Eyk, Blue Jays (video): Three years ago Van Eyk was the No. 42 pick in the draft. He’s been hurt a lot the last few years, including having Tommy John surgery, so his pro career consists of 114.2 innings. Van Eyk was healthy enough to pitch in the Arizona Fall League though, and Baseball America (subs. req’d) says his “12-6 power curveball has remained a weapon and may allow him to get outs in a big league bullpen right now.” He also has a mid-80s slider and a low-90s fastball that doesn’t have great shape. Given his draft pedigree, Van Eyk is a name more than a prospect, though the curveball is potentially a carrying pitch.

The Rule 5 Draft order is the reverse order of the standings, so the Yankees have the No. 16 pick. Teams can and often do pass (they also can't make a pick if they have a full 40-man), so that No. 16 pick might actually be more like the No. 9 or 10 selection. Also, teams frequently work out trades. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney to the Nationals for the No. 1 pick in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft. They used it on Jamie Hoffmann.

Let’s say the Yankees want Slaten and don’t believe he’ll get to their pick. They’ll call around, find a team with an earlier selection that is not planning to make a pick themselves, and work out a trade. You take Slaten and trade him to us for whatever we agreed to beforehand. The Bruney trade was an outlier. Just about all Rule 5 Draft trades are cash trades. It’s easy money for teams not planning to make a pick for themselves.

My hunch is the Yankees will not make a Rule 5 Draft pick. It’s not a talent pool they swim in and the reward is usually pretty small. I kinda hope they do though. It would be something new. If nothing else, a Rule 5 Draft pick would give us a player to pay a little extra attention to in Spring Training. Anything that makes Spring Training more interesting is a plus in my book.

Don’t forget about the minor league phase

I don’t want to say they were pointless because filling out minor league rosters is important and it has to be done, but minor league Rule 5 Draft picks rarely amounted to anything back in the day. Remember Alexi Ogando? He was a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick and it was a big deal when he reached the big leagues because teams just didn’t find MLB players there.

Things are different now. Thanks to modern pitcher development, you can find useful players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Joe Jacques was a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason and he appeared in 23 games for the Red Sox this year. The Braves got Allan Winans in the minor league Rule 5 Draft and he’s a competent No. 6-7 starter. Tyler Gilbert threw a no-hitter a few months after being a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick!

The Yankees hit – relatively speaking – on a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick with Matt Krook in 2020. Krook reached the big leagues this summer and he’s been very good in Triple-A the last three years, throwing 230.1 innings with a 27.5% strikeout rate and 57.1% ground ball rate. That qualifies as a minor league Rule 5 Draft success story. An up and down depth arm.

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft works differently than the Major League phase. Make a pick in the minor league phase and the player is yours. There are no roster hoops to jump through. The same players eligible for the Major League phase are eligible for the minor league phase. In addition to the 40-man roster, each team has a 38-man minor league reserve list in the offseason. Players not on the 40-man roster or 38-man reserve list can be taken in the minor league phase.

So, for example, the Yankees did not put Sauer on their 40-man roster this offseason. He is eligible to be taken in the Major League Rule 5 Draft. If they also did not put him on their 38-man minor league reserve list, Sauer can be taken in the minor league phase as well. That 38-man reserve list is never reported or made public, though 38 spots is usually more than enough room to cover any remotely interesting non-40-man Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects.

The minor league Rule 5 Draft is considerably longer than the Major League phase – 50 or so players are taken each year – and the Yankees have made a pick in the minor league phase every year since 2020. I’m sure they will again this year. It’s a way to plug a minor league roster spot on the cheap and a zero risk roll of the dice. Teams love those.

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