November 30th, 2023: White Sox, Soto, Yamamoto, Mailbag

UPDATE: I accidentally hit publish early. This is the completed version of the post.

Earlier this week Yoshinobu Yamamoto won his third straight Pacific League MVP. He’s the third player in NPB history to win three straight MVPs, joining Hall of Fame pitcher Hisashi Yamada (1976-78) and the great Ichiro Suzuki (1994-96). "He is a legend of the franchise. I'm happy to have done the same as him,” Yamamoto told the Kyodo News about winning three straight MVPs like Ichiro, who also played for the Orix Buffaloes. We are 11 days into Yamamoto’s 45-day posting period. A quarter of the way there. Let’s now get to today’s post. I’m running this Thursday afternoon instead of Friday morning because the post is ready to go, and because things happen fast this time of year and I don’t want anything to go to waste. Avoiding rewrites is the name of the game.

1. Scouting the Trade Market: Chicago White Sox. Ah, the perils of a rebuild. After four straight fourth or fifth place finishes from 2013-16, the White Sox went in the tank and rebuilt, and traded away quality veterans like Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier, José Quintana, David Robertson, and Chris Sale as they hoarded prospects. Chicago then lost 284 games from 2017-19.

After all that, the White Sox came out on the other side of the rebuild and have only two winning seasons (2020 and 2021), one division title (2021), and two postseason wins (one each in 2020 and 2021) to show for it. Longtime GM Rick Hahn was fired in August, and former infielder Chris Getz was elevated to head up baseball operations. Once again, the White Sox are rebuilding.

“I don’t like our team and we have to make some adjustments to improve in 2024,” Getz told Scott Merkin at the GM Meetings a few weeks ago. “... There are no untouchables. So much of this is going to start from the top. It’s going to start with me. Players, staff, anyone in this organization needs to know what we’re about and where we’re moving forward. We really need to establish the identity of what the White Sox are about. I feel like we’ve lacked that.”

Getz’s rebuild began with last week’s Aaron Bummer trade and will surely continue throughout the offseason. For a team that went 61-101 in 2023, the White Sox do have some talent, talent that could help the Yankees in 2024 and beyond. Who’s a fit? Who should the Yankees avoid? Let’s take a look at Chicago’s top remaining trade chips (listed alphabetically).

OF Andrew Benintendi

2023 stats: .262/.326/.356 (87 wRC+) with 5 HR in 621 PA
Contract status: Owed $64M from 2024-27 ($16M annual luxury tax hit)

Could you imagine if the Yankees had re-signed Benintendi last offseason and then he went out and did that in Year 1? I mean, you don’t have to imagine it. The Yankees got an 87 wRC+ from their left fielders in 2023. We know what that looks like. On top of that, Benintendi’s defense went in the tank: -3 DRS and -10 OAA. Just an all-around awful season.

Benintendi doesn’t turn 30 until July, so he’s still fairly young and could bounce back, but the guy has had one great half-season plus one good full season in the last five years. I’m guessing the White Sox would give Benintendi away. Take his salary and he’s yours. Perhaps a deeper dive would reveal reasons to be optimistic. I am unwilling to do that. Hardest of passes.

RHP Dylan Cease

2023 stats: 4.58 ERA (3.78 FIP) with 27.3 K% and 10.1 BB% in 177 IP
Contract status: Projected $8.8M in 2024, arb-eligible in 2025

Remember when Gerrit Cole was in the middle of his Cy Young chase and I kept mentioning 10 of the last 14 pitchers (now 12 of the last 16) to lead his league in Baseball Reference WAR won the Cy Young, and two others finished second in the voting? Cease was one of the two. He led the AL with +6.4 bWAR in 2022 but Justin Verlander still won the Cy Young unanimously.

Cease’s Cy Young runner-up season featured a 2.20 ERA (3.10 FIP) with strikeout (30.4%) and swinging strike (15.0%) rates that are top of the line for a starting pitcher. He also had a 10.4% walk rate and led the league with 78 walks, though Cease had the third lowest opponent’s AVG (.190) and SLG (.306) among the 45 qualified pitchers. This is about as good as it gets:

Cease’s performance took a step back this season: 4.58 ERA (3.72 FIP) with 27.3% strikeouts, 10.1% walks, and 13.6% swinging strikes. Chicago was arguably the worst defensive team in the game this season (-59 DRS!), which surely contributed to Cease’s bloated ERA to some extent, but he still walked too many and there was a dip in bat-missing ability.

There was also an increase in hard contact. Cease had an 86.8 mph average exit velocity and 31.2% hard-hit rate in 2022, numbers far better than league average. In 2023, it was a 90.0 mph average exit velocity and 41.5% hard-hit rate, numbers a tick worse than average. Looking at his career overall, 2022 is the outlier in terms of contact quality. 2023 is more the norm.

Stuff-wise, Cease is ridiculous. He has a mid-to-upper-90s four-seamer and the pitch averaged 19.0 inches of induced horizontal break the last three years. That’s Verlander and Cristian Javier territory. The pitch explodes through the top of the zone. Cease has a top of the scale, good as it gets fastball. A great fastball isn’t everything, but it is a lot. It gives you a nice margin of error, if nothing else.

Cease backs up his fastball with a low-80s curveball and a mid-80s slider, both of which have high spin, and every so often he’ll break out a surprisingly effective changeup (53.8% whiff rate in 2023). Here’s video and here are the lowest in-zone contact rates in baseball over the last three seasons (min. 300 innings):

1. Spencer Strider: 77.4%
2. Freddy Peralta: 78.7%
3. Carlos Rodón: 79.6%
4. Max Scherzer: 80.0%
5. Dylan Cease: 80.2%
(MLB average: 84.9%)

In-zone contact rate is a quick and dirty way to measure dominance. If you can get hitters to swing and miss at pitches in the strike zone, you’re doing something right, and very few pitchers miss bats in the zone like Cease. (Cole is 12th on the leaderboard at 81.4%, if you’re curious.)

In some ways, Cease is a right-handed Blake Snell. It’s a very big fastball, two swing-and-miss breaking balls, a sneaky changeup, and more walks and five-inning starts than you’d like. Cease might strike out 11 in seven innings today and walk six in four innings five days from now. He can be frustrating, but he’s also so obviously talented. The ceiling is very high. We saw it in 2022.

The White Sox are considered behind the times in player development, particularly with pitchers, and there’s belief within the game that Cease could really blossom away from the White Sox and with a team that knows what it’s doing. The teams that chase after a player can tell you a lot about how he’s viewed, and:

• The Astros pursued Cease at the trade deadline (per Jon Heyman).
• The Dodgers are talking to the ChiSox about Cease now (per Bob Nightengale).
• The Braves are also pursuing Cease this offseason (per Nightengale).

If the Astros, Braves, and Dodgers are after a pitcher, then there’s a pretty great chance he is not fully-formed and there is another level he can get to with some tweaks. The Yankees are much better with pitchers now than they were even five years ago. I’d be interested to see what Matt Blake could do with Cease (not to mention what Cease could learn sitting with Cole in the dugout between starts).

Plenty of high-end starters have been traded two years prior to free agency. Cole was back in the day, though he was not yet Gerrit freakin’ Cole. Joe Musgrove, James Paxton, and Jameson Taillon were all traded with two years of control. Luis Castillo was traded with 1.5 years of control, which is still two postseasons. Same with Trevor Bauer, Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, and several others.

There’s a big sample of comparable trades here and the trades that featured a rebuilding team dealing their top starter (Castillo, Cole, Musgrove, Paxton, etc.) included 3-4 players going the other way, usually including one or two prospects. That’s a reasonable template for Cease. Two top prospects and two others. What that looks like for the Yankees, I don’t know.

The point I’m trying to make here is yes, the Yankees should pursue Cease. They should pursue him even if they land Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s no such thing as too much high-end pitching and a Cole-Cease-Yamamoto 1-2-3 punch the next two years is a rotation that can get you to heaven (or at least give you a chance in a short postseason series). I understand offense is the priority right now, but Cease is a potential impact starter and you should always have interest in those guys.

(For what it’s worth, Jon Morosi says Cease trade talks are heating up, so much so that he could be dealt before the Winter Meetings. Also, check out what my pal R.J. Anderson wrote about why Cease is so desirable. He explained it better than I can.)

LHP Garrett Crochet

2023 stats: 3.55 ERA (5.70 FIP) with 18.8 K% and 20.3 BB% in 12.2 IP
Contract status: Projected $900,000 in 2024, arb-eligible in 2025 and 2026

Still only 24, Crochet was the No. 11 pick in the five-round 2020 draft. The White Sox sent him to their alternate site for a few weeks, then they called him up in September. Crochet became the first player to reach the big leagues the same year he was drafted since Brandon Finnegan with the 2014 Royals. He struck out eight in six scoreless relief innings that September (video).

Crochet had a very strong 2021 (2.82 ERA and 2.80 FIP with 28.3% strikeouts in 54.1 innings), but the elbow ligament monster came for him in Spring Training 2022, and Crochet missed that season and the start of 2023 after having Tommy John surgery. He was all over the place when he returned this year, plus he missed three months with shoulder inflammation. Yikes.

When he’s healthy and right, Crochet is as dominant as just about any lefty reliever in the game. He can have trouble throwing strikes sometimes, sure, but he’s touched 100 mph and his slider had an absurd 44.8% whiff rate in 2021. The Yankees need a lefty to replace Wandy Peralta and the good version of Crochet doesn’t just replace Wandy. He’s an upgrade.

Crochet returned from his shoulder issue late this season and made three “see? he's healthy!” appearances, during which his velocity was down slightly and he generally pitched well. As far as we know, he’s healthy. His injury history does date back to college though, and there’s no chance he can start. It’s harsh, but this is a “use him up before he blows out for good” situation.

What’s the trade value of a potentially excellent reliever with three years of control who’s been neither healthy nor effective in two years? The ChiSox traded three years of Bummer for a bunch of second and third tier stuff and he had a bad 2023 (6.79 ERA), though the underlying numbers were good, he’s been mostly healthy, and he was great from 2019-22. Crochet’s trade value is somewhere south of Bummer’s, I’d say.

I’m not going to try to cobble together a trade package. I’m just going to say I can 100% see the Yankees having interest in Crochet. They always target guys with premium stuff and, for better or worse, they’re willing to take on injury risk to get upside. The left-handed thing is secondary. I think the Yankees would have interest in Crochet even if he were a righty.

DH Eloy Jiménez

2023 stats: .272/.317/.441 (105 wRC+) with 18 HR in 489 PA
Contract status: $13M in 2024 with club options for 2025 ($16.5M with $3M buyout) and 2026 ($18.5M with $3M buyout)

Once upon a time the Yankees picked between Jiménez, Ian Happ, and Gleyber Torres during Aroldis Chapman trade talks with the Cubs. The Yankees took Torres, and a year later the Cubs sent Eloy to the White Sox (with Cease) for Quintana. The White Sox then signed Jiménez to a six-year, $43M extension before he even played his first MLB game.

Now 27, Jiménez’s big league career has featured a lot of dingers (33 per 162 games), a lot of bad defense (-18 DRS and -19 OAA career), and a lot of injuries (played only 436 of 708 possible games). He’s a year removed from a .295/.358/.500 (143 wRC+) line, though that came in only 327 plate appearances because he tore a hamstring tendon running out a ground ball.

Jiménez is a big time exit velocity guy – his power is legit all-fields power, Eloy can hit the ball out of any part of any park – and he’s made considerable progress cutting down on his strikeouts. This is good. This is what you want to see from a young hitter:

The issue with Jiménez is position, or lack thereof. He’s an awful defender, so bad that he’s seriously hurt himself trying to make plays, so he’s a full-time DH. The Yankees already have a righty hitting power-first (power-only, really) full-time DH. I would bet on Eloy outperforming Giancarlo Stanton next year and over the next few years, but are the Yankees really gonna replace Stanton this offseason? I mean really?

With another roster, yeah, Jiménez would make sense for the Yankees. With the current roster, I don’t think so. They need left-handed hitters, not more righties, and the guy can’t play the field. Eloy has his flaws, but he’s entering what should be his prime, he’s cut his strikeouts, and he has huge power. With good health, Jiménez feels like a 40-homer season waiting to happen.

RHP Michael Kopech

2023 stats: 5.43 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 22.7 K% and 15.4 BB% in 129.1 IP
Contract status: Projected $3.6M in 2024, arb-eligible in 2025

Kopech, who is still somehow only 27, has had himself an eventful career. It’s easiest to just lay it all out:

• 2014: No. 33 pick in the draft
• 2016: Ranked as a top 100 prospect for the first time
• 2017: Traded for Chris Sale
• 2018: Makes MLB debut, blows out his elbow in his fourth start
• 2019: Tommy John surgery rehab
• 2020: Opts out of the shortened pandemic season
• 2021: Dominates as multi-inning reliever (36.1% strikeouts in 69.1 IP)
• 2022: 3.54 ERA (4.50 FIP) in 119.1 IP around injuries as a starter
• 2023: 5.43 ERA (6.46 FIP) in 129.1 IP around injuries as a starter

Kopech is not far removed from being one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. Now I’m not sure anyone really knows what to make of him. He’s had shoulder and knee problems (both knees) each of the last two seasons and, perhaps not coincidentally, his walk rate has gone from 8.4% in 2021 to 11.5% in 2022 to 15.4% in 2024.

The one thing Kopech has going for him is stuff. He still resides in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball, his slider is a harder breaker in the mid-80s, and his changeup touches 90 mph. Kopech gets whiffs at an above-average rate with his fastball and changeup, and his extension clocks in at close to seven feet too. Anything close to seven feet is pretty extreme. Even at 6-foot-3, Kopech gets on top of hitters.

Similar to Cease, I’m sure several teams believe their pitching folks can get Kopech on track. It’s a question of whether he can stay healthy as much as than anything, and whether he’ll throw enough strikes for his stuff to matter. Maybe it’s time to put Kopech back in the bullpen? He had success as a Mike King-esque multi-inning high leverage reliever in 2021. Some guys are just made for the bullpen, you know?

The Taillon trade serves as a possible guide for a potential Kopech trade. Taillon, like Kopech, came with two years of control. The Yankees also traded for Taillon sight unseen as he wrapped up his second Tommy John surgery rehab. Kopech was hurt and bad in 2022. Taillon had not pitched in a year and a half when the Yankees got him. Not apples to apples, but maybe?

The trade package will be whatever the trade package is. Kopech’s injuries the last two years and ineffectiveness this past season make it hard for me to trust him as a no questions asked member of the rotation. In my perfect world, you take a flier on him, see what happens when he comes out of the bullpen, and if it goes well enough he’s worth trying the rotation again, great.

As the rotation addition, I think Kopech is a stretch. He’s better as the second pitcher addition. The guy you’re not counting on and it’s a pleasant surprise if he contributes in a meaningful way. That said, the Yankees always go for high octane stuff and are willing to assume injury risk to get upside. I could see the Yankees have interest in Kopech, red flags and all.

RHP Jimmy Lambert

2023 stats: 5.26 ERA (6.20 FIP) with 23.8 K% and 11.6 BB% in 37.2 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2024, arb-eligible from 2025-27

Lambert is a 29-year-old out-of-options replacement level-ish swingman. I’m only mentioning him because he has some interesting pitch traits, specifically a 93-96 mph fastball that has had 18.5 inches of induced vertical break the last two years (MLB average is 15.7 inches) and a mid-70s curveball with 67.0 inches of vertical movement (MLB average is 53.0 inches).

In English, that means Lambert’s fastball has a lot of carry up in the zone, and his curveball is a big ol’ yakker that starts way up high and finishes way down low. To wit:

Lambert also throws a mid-80s slider, though it had a below average whiff rate this season, and people smarter than me tell me his arm slot isn’t conducive to a sweeper. The whiff rate on his curveball has approached 40% the last two years and there’s enough jump on his fastball to keep hitters honest. I dunno, feels like there might be a useful 50/50 fastballs/curveballs reliever in here somewhere.

Most likely, Lambert would be a potential Albert Abreu replacement as the last guy in the bullpen more than a high leverage option in waiting. The Yankees have had success turning randos into quality relievers the last few years and perhaps Blake can work his magic on Lambert. You don’t trade much for a guy like this, of course. As a cheap roll of the dice, sure, why not?

3B Yoán Moncada

2023 stats: .260/.305/.425 (98 wRC+) with 11 HR in 357 PA
Contract status: $24M in 2024 with a $25M club option ($5M buyout) for 2025

You know, given all the prospect hype, Moncada has really underwhelmed. The Red Sox did the smart thing and traded him for Sale, which is yet another reminder the team that gets the star almost always wins the trade, not the team that gets the prospects. Moncada had a great rocket ball season in 2019 (.315/.367/.548 and 139 wRC+) but has otherwise been pretty meh.

There are things to like about Moncada, who turns 29 in May. He’s always posted strong contact quality numbers, he’s a switch-hitter who has been better against righties than lefties in recent seasons, and he’s shown the ability to pull the ball in the air to right field as a left-handed hitter. Moncada should be short porch friendly. Here are his 2021-23 fly balls and line drives as a lefty:

The downside is Moncada strikes out a lot (career 29.3%), has had injuries the last few years, and is at best okay at third base. After +5 DRS and +4 OAA from 2021-22, he was at -5 DRS and -1 OAA in 2023. Moncada had a nagging lower back issue this season, so maybe that hurt his defense. That said, the nagging lower back issue itself is a red flag.

The Yankees need help at third base and a switch-hitter with power would be a welcome addition to the lineup. Moncada is flawed, sure, but it’s only a one-year commitment and it’s not like he’s lacking talent. Get him out of a miserable environment with the White Sox and get him motivated in a contract year, and maybe you get the best version of Moncada in 2024.

White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is impressively cheap – Benintendi’s $75M deal is the largest contract in franchise history (a franchise that plays in literally Chicago) – so I’m willing to bet the ChiSox would jump at the chance to unload the $29M Moncada is owed in 2024 between his salary and option buyout. Would they accept a lesser return for Cease if you take on Moncada too? It’s worth asking.

Moncada is worth a deeper dive if this becomes a real possibility, though I have a hard time believing the Yankees will add a $29M player to the roster who isn’t Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, or maybe Cody Bellinger. I can see a fit though. Take on the money, give up little, put Moncada at third base and in the No. 6 or 7 lineup spot for a year. There are worse plans.

OF Luis Robert Jr.

2023 stats: .264/.315/.542 (128 wRC+) with 38 HR in 595 PA
Contract status: $12.5M in 2024 and $15M in 2025 with club options for 2026 and 2027 (both $20M with $2M buyouts)

With all due respect to Cease, Robert is the White Sox player to target in my opinion. He’s not a perfect fit for the Yankees – a righty with a 28.9% strikeout rate and an 18.1% (!) swinging strike rate is the last thing they need – but we’re talking about a top flight defensive center fielder with 30-homer power and 20-steal speed who is under contractual control from ages 26-29.

There are certain types of players who do not become available very often, and when they do become available, you should go get them and then build out your roster around them. Premium defensive center fielders with this much power who are in their mid-20s fall into that category. You live with the bad (strikeouts) because oh so much good (everything else) comes with it.

The Yankees should go get Robert and then figure out how to mitigate the right-handed strikeout issue around him. That won’t be easy and I honestly have no idea how the Yankees could do it short of cutting Stanton, but it’s worth figuring out to add an in-his-prime star at a position of great need. Robert’s a career .279/.327/.500 (116 wRC+) hitter and +14 DRS (+26 OAA) defender. That’s the kinda player we’re talking about here. (Robert also has a great nickname: La Pantera.)

There aren’t any good recent trade benchmarks for Robert because again, players like this do not become available often. Soto was traded with 2.5 years of team control, not four. Nolan Arenado had seven years remaining on his contract and controlled things with his full no-trade clause. Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy were traded with two years of control.

Christian Yelich is the best trade benchmark we have and he was the more productive player at the time of his trade (career 122 wRC+ and +26 DRS), and he had five years remaining on his team-friendly contract, not four. The Yelich trade was a total disaster for the Marlins, though the Brewers did give up a fairly significant package to get him based on the prospect rankings:

• OF Lewis Brinson (top 30 global prospect)
• IF Isan Díaz (fringe top 100 global prospect)
• OF Monte Harrison (top 10 team prospect)
• RHP Jordan Yamamoto (top 30 team prospect)

Again, a total disaster for the Marlins, and this is where I again remind you the team that gets the star almost always comes out ahead in prospects-for-star trades. Robert is Getz’s top trade chip and I have to think he will seek out the best talent possible, but who knows? To him, maybe the best talent is another quantity over quality trade like Bummer rather than 2-3 stud prospects.

You put Jasson Domínguez on the table for Robert, right? I would. Domínguez’s upside looks a lot like Robert – a 30-homer center fielder – and you wouldn’t have to wait out the Tommy John surgery rehab or any big league growing pains. Domínguez was awesome this year, but it was eight games. We really didn’t learn a whole lot about him. He barely got his feet wet.

Getz said “there are no untouchables,” so Robert is available. He won’t be cheap and I’m sure there would be a bidding war – the Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Padres, Red Sox, and Twins all immediately jump to mind as clubs that could use Robert – but Getz has made it clear he’s willing to listen. The Yankees have to get involved and, if things work out, then figure out how to reduce strikeouts around Robert and Aaron Judge.

RHP Gregory Santos

2023 stats: 3.39 ERA (2.65 FIP) with 22.8 K% and 5.9 BB% in 66.1 IP
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2024 and 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28

Picked up in a minor trade with the Giants last offseason, Santos was one of the few bright spots for the 101-loss White Sox. The 24-year-old didn’t miss a ton of bats this season, though he generated a 52.5% ground ball rate and 1.0% barrel rate (!) with his upper-90s sinker and low-90s slider. This will play (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Santos did not come out of nowhere. He was on prospects lists for years. There are red flags in his history though. Santos served an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension spanning 2021-22, he had shoulder trouble in the minors, and his track record of throwing strikes is spotty (this year’s 5.9% walk rate is his best at any level in any year with any number of innings).

You’re not going to get a guy with an arm like this in a minor trade like the White Sox did last year unless there are some red flags. Chicago took the risk and was rewarded with a great season, and now they have a desirable trade chip. When you’re rebuilding, the last thing you need is a good reliever with an injury history. Trade Santos before his shoulder acts up again.

The Yankees typically go after relievers before they break out (Wandy, Clay Holmes, etc.), though not always. They ponied up for Scott Effross in the middle of his breakout season. The Yankees gave up Hayden Wesneski, a near-MLB-ready top 10 team prospect, for 5.5 years of Effross in a one-for-one trade. That seems like a good benchmark for a Santos trade.

Santos’ shoulder injury history is worrisome, but a) good luck finding a reliever without an injury history, and b) that will be baked into the cake. The injury history will be a consideration as teams put together trade offers. Again, Chicago went quantity over quality for Bummer. Maybe Getz will take 2-3 lesser prospects over one top prospect for Santos? That would be ideal.

* * *

The White Sox have a few other players worth mentioning but not many. Lefty Sammy Peralta is a funky low arm slot guy with a 90-ish mph fastball, a slider, and a changeup (video). Andrew Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in 2019, hasn’t hit much yet and will be a non-tender candidate next offseason if he doesn’t take a step forward in 2024. Righty Yohan Ramirez throws hard and gets grounders. He’s also been traded for cash and claimed on waivers three times in the last two years.

Cease and Robert are the big prizes. Those two would make any team better. Taking on the 2023 White Sox bullpen wholesale maybe isn’t the best idea, though you can see how Crochet and Santos (and possibly even Lambert) could help. Squint your eyes and Kopech or Moncada could fit the Yankees as well. Jiménez is more of a stretch given his lack of position.

The Bummer trade suggests Getz’s priority is building organizational depth, which is a common step early in rebuilds (the Astros and Orioles did this). For Cease and Robert, Getz has to maximize the talent he gets in return, but others may be available for two Bs instead of one A, if you catch my drift. The Yankees likely have their priorities elsewhere (Soto, Yamamoto, etc.), though the White Sox have quality players to offer too. Don’t forget about them.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. For what it’s worth, Andy Martino says talks with the Padres about Juan Soto have progressed to the point where the two sides are exchanging names. That does not mean a trade is imminent or inevitable. It just means they’re beyond the “can we talk about him?” exploratory phase. These things usually fall apart when the two teams can’t find common ground and the Yankees and Padres seem to have begun the common ground finding phase. So that’s that update … Martino also says the Yankees deliberately did not issue No. 18 this past season so they can offer it to Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Andrew Benintendi was the last Yankee to wear No. 18). Yamamoto wore No. 18 with the Orix Buffaloes and No. 18 is traditionally the “ace” number in Japan (Masahiro Tanaka wore No. 19 with the Yankees because when he joined the team in 2014, Hiroki Kuroda already had No. 18). I’m trying to imagine Jake Bauers or Billy McKinney asking for No. 18 and the Yankees saying nope, we’re saving that for Yamamoto. Anyway, holding No. 18 is a nice gesture and shows the Yankees are aware and respectful of the tradition and the number’s importance, but it won’t matter even a tiny little bit come decision time. The only way the number 18 will factor into Yamamoto’s decision is if the Yankees offer him $18M more than the next highest team … And finally, Luis Severino is staying in New York. He has a one-year, $13M deal with the Mets. That’s more or less the going rate for a starter with major injury concerns (like Frankie Montas). Can’t say the Mets are the team I would have joined if I were a pitcher trying to find a way to stay healthy, but to each his own. Godspeed, Sevy. I hope your stint in Queens goes better than Dellin’s.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks: Assume Yamamoto wants to go somewhere else, so you know now (no need to wait him out) that he isn't coming to the Yankees. Of the other starting pitching options, and give their likely contracts, who do you want and why? I've long been a huge Montgomery fan, but is he significantly better than Rodriguez? Seems like the FA market for starting pitching after Yamamoto is deep but confusing.

Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez were the first two names that jumped to mind and there isn’t a big gap between them at all. They’re the same age, Montgomery has been better the last 2-3 years but Rodriguez has been good too, they’re similar lefty contact management types with average strikeout and ground ball rates, they’re both AL East and World Series battle-tested, and neither is attached to draft pick compensation. Here are the contract projections:

• Montgomery: 5 years, $105M (FanGraphs) and 6 years, $150M (MLBTR)
• Rodriguez: 4 years, $76M (FanGraphs) and 4 years, $82M (MLBTR)

For what it’s worth, FanGraphs projections have the two as roughly equal in 2024 (+3.2 WAR vs. +2.9 WAR). Even if you think Montgomery will be the better pitcher the next few years, will he be so much better that it justifies an extra year or two and $3M or so annually? Yeah, maybe. It is only money and the Yankees have lots of it. I’m not sure 100% sold though.

Those two are the only free agents who came to mind. Blake Snell had a tremendous season and when he’s on, he’s as good as anyone. That run he had this year (19 runs allowed in his last 23 starts) was historically great. He’s also miserable to watch. So many walks, so much nibbling, so many long innings. Snell’s starts are tough to sit through. Maybe that shouldn’t matter, but as I’ve gotten older, the aesthetic component of baseball has become more important to me.

Shōta Imanaga? I’ve seen such a wide range of opinions on him. Some think he’s a potential No. 2 type starter, others see him as more of a steady No. 4 type. He’s most likely going to get paid like a No. 2 or 3 and eh. I’d rather spend a little more for a known quantity like Montgomery or Rodriguez. Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Michael Wacha don’t do much for me.

There’s always the trade market (Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, etc.), but I think until you know whether or not you’re getting Juan Soto, you kinda have to hold your best trade chips. Imagine giving up, say, Drew Thorpe for Cease, and then the Padres saying “Thorpe was the guy we had to have!”? I doubt that would happen, but why risk it?

If Yoshinobu Yamamoto says he won’t sign with the Yankees for whatever reason, then I think you just spend the money to sign Montgomery or Rodriguez, and save your trade chips. Force me to pick one and I’ll say Montgomery over Rodriguez, even if it takes a larger contract. He’s been better and healthier the last few years, and it should be a (much) more seamless transition into the organization.

(Supposedly the Mets are in talks with Rodriguez, though I heard that before they agreed to their deal with Luis Severino. Not sure if Rodriguez will get across the finish line or what.)

Gabriel asks: I’ll preface this by stating “yes! I want the Yankees to get Soto this year, but is it wrong not to want him if it’s going to cost 45-50 million a year for a star who set a career high in home runs with 35? I feel like Judge can run into 45 home runs hitting .275 in his sleep at a lower salary. I think maybe Ohtani would be a better fit at that price.

I hear you, but Juan Soto’s career high 35 homers came in a very bad park for lefty homers (per Statcast’s park factors) and during his age 24 season. 25 players hit at least 35 homers at age 24 or younger this century and they’re mostly the very best hitters of the last 23 years. Ronald Acuña, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, etc. I think we can safely say Soto belongs in that group rather than the Joey Gallo and Franmil Reyes group.

Gabriel’s “I feel like Judge can run into 45 home runs hitting .275 in his sleep at a lower salary” point is both accurate and not especially relevant (sorry, Gabriel) because it’s not one or the other. We’re talking about adding Soto to Aaron Judge, not replacing one with the other. Also, Judge will have a lower salary than Soto’s upcoming free agent contract because Soto is nearly seven years younger than Judge.

To answer the question, I mean yeah, I’d rather just sign Shohei Ohtani for money than trade prospects for Soto. I feel like Ohtani’s excellence as a hitter is underappreciated – the guy hit .304/.412/.654 (180 wRC+) with an AL-leading 44 homers this year – plus you get his potential as a pitcher. The recent elbow surgery is worrisome, sure, but does Soto offer anything on the mound? No. No he does not. Ohtani > Soto for me and I’m not sure that’s a hot take.

Let’s not overthink this. It’s Juan Soto, one of the very best hitters in the world. Pay the price in prospects (i.e. don’t saddle yourself with seven years of Jake Cronenworth to marginally lower the prospect cost), get Soto for a year, then pursue a long-term contract next offseason with the full financial backing of the New York Yankees. The Yankees need more than Soto, yes, but they would need to add less around him than they would need to add around just about anyone else. Soto should be the big offensive move of the offseason, not the offseason.

Steve asks: The report out today is that the Padres and Yankees are exchanging names on a potential Soto trade. Isn’t this where you kinda trust Cashman? Aside from the Donaldson/IKF deal - which involved major leaguers more than minor leaguers, I can’t recall a trade that Yankees fans lost minor leaguers that we regret. Cashman deserves a lot of knocks, but his knowledge of the Yankees minor leaguers seems really helpful for major trades like this one.

The recent bad trades the Yankees have made have been bad because the guys they acquired didn’t perform and/or got hurt, not because the prospects they gave up blossomed. Ezequiel Duran and JP Sears had nice enough seasons this year, but if Duran and Sears are the big regrets, you’re not missing much. Perhaps Kevin Alcántara will come back to haunt the Yankees. If it takes 4-5 years to really regret trading Alcántara, I can live with it. The Yankees should be trying to win now, while Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge are in their prime, not worrying about 2027 or 2028. If the Yankees trade for Juan Soto, it’s going to hurt. Players we don’t want to see traded are going to go to San Diego. That’s just business and what it takes to get a player like Soto. As bad as their recent trade track record is though, I trust the Yankees to know which prospects to keep and which prospects to trade.

Mark asks: Dombrowski in the weeds on Soto? Seems like we can't overlook PHI as a dark horse for trading for Soto: DD always is willing to move heaven, Earth and top 5 prospects to get elite players in their prime (Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale). Who do you think ends up w Soto, and when does it happen?

We should never rule out Dave Dombrowski on any big name player, though I will say he usually doesn’t hide in the weeds. When he wants a player, he goes out and he gets him. Dombrowski’s biggest moves usually come together very quickly, like the Aaron Nola re-signing this offseason. (Dombrowski wasn’t in charge yet when the Phillies waited until March to sign Bryce Harper.)

The Phillies could definitely use Juan Soto. They’re putting Harper at first base full-time next year so Kyle Schwarber can DH. That means Brandon Marsh plays left and the well-regarded Johan Rojas plays center, though Rojas had some ugly plate discipline numbers in his late season cameo this year (42/5 K/BB with a 41.5% chase rate), so more Triple-A time couldn’t hurt. Rojas in Triple-A, Soto in left, and Marsh in center (where he's more than capable) for a year is very doable.

Dombrowski is never afraid to trade young players and the Phillies can offer the Padres a young starter (the sneaky good Cristopher Sánchez) plus prospects. Andrew Painter is arguably the best pitching prospect in the game, but he had Tommy John surgery in July, so he’s not pitching again until 2025, and probably not helping the Phillies until 2026 at the earliest. Their window to win a World Series is right now. Don’t you put Painter on the table for Soto?

Money could be an issue. Cot’s says the Phillies already have $252.8M on the books for luxury tax purposes (including arbitration projections), so taking on Soto’s $30M+ salary puts them in the $285M to $290M range. Maybe Phillies owner John Middleton is willing to do that for a year? Middleton has been very aggressive and has made it clear he wants to win. Maybe he’ll do it.

To answer the question, I’ll say yes, I think the Phillies are in the mix for Soto even though we haven’t heard anything connecting them to him, and Dombrowski usually isn’t subtle. I think the Yankees are most likely to get Soto, I really do, but I would also put my money on the field over the Yankees. Hard to say any one single team is favored over all other teams at this stage in the game. Sorry if that’s a cop out.

Alessandro asks: Given all the rumors and trade proposals with their names, who would you rather trade/keep of Drew Thorpe and Chase Hampton?

Before we begin, I feel obligated to say I would trade either, especially to get someone like Juan Soto. There isn’t a single untouchable prospect in the system for me. Jasson Domínguez is just about off-limits, but if push came to shove, there are players I’d give him up to get. The pitchers? Trade ‘em. Trade ‘em all. (Okay, don’t trade all of them, but none of these guys are untouchable.)

Hampton and Thorpe are very different prospects. For lack of a better term, Hampton is a pitch design guy with a deep arsenal and the movement traits teams covet. He grades out extremely well with pitch models. Thorpe, again for lack of a better term, is more of a “pitcher” who knows how to carve through hitters with smarts. Hampton more out-stuffs hitters, in a sense. Here’s video of Thorpe and here’s video of Hampton.

I’m inclined to keep Thorpe over Hampton. Thorpe works with average fastball velocity, but he can cut it and sink it, his slider has come along nicely, and his changeup might be the single best pitch in the organization. His command and general pitching know-how is also very good. Thorpe will not blow hitters away, but he will disrupt their timing and frustrate them. The command and pitching smarts are the separator for me, so I’d keep Thorpe over Hampton (who’s very good!).

Carlos asks: The Yankees are looking for a lefty hitter OF, but couldn’t Kyle Lewis fit the mold as a 4th OF?

Fun fact: Lewis was the unanimous AL Rookie of the Year in 2020 and yet he still hasn’t played 162 career MLB games (he’s at 146). Lewis, now 28, has had a ton of injuries the last few years, and he spent most of this season in Triple-A, where he hit .371/.451/.641 (166 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 63 games in very hitter friendly Reno in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Diamondbacks non-tendered Lewis rather than pay him a projected $1.61M salary. Normally I would say he’s a minor league contract candidate given the injuries and lack of MLB production since winning Rookie of the Year (77 wRC+ from 2021-23), but Lewis has a minor league option remaining and the Yankees have some 40-man roster flexibility. They could give him an MLB contract and stash him in Triple-A. The 40-man spot might be what wins the bidding.

As for counting on Lewis to be the fourth outfielder, that’s hard to do because he doesn’t play the outfield much these days. He’s had a lot of knee injuries and his legs can’t handle all the running. Lewis played 77 games between Triple-A and MLB in 2023 and 55 were at DH, and never once all year did he play the field on back-to-back days. He’s played 67 games in the outfield the last three years combined. At this point Lewis is a DH more than an outfielder, which takes him out of fourth outfielder consideration.

If Lewis will take a minor league deal, great. Bring him aboard. No risk there. The Yankees could offer a 40-man spot, though they will eventually need those open spots later this offseason. I don’t see Lewis as much of an MLB roster fit now that he can’t play the field regularly. For the Yankees, he would be the backup DH when Giancarlo Stanton gets hurt, and not much more.

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