November 10th, 2023: Yamamoto, Mailbag

Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner held press conferences earlier this week and yeesh, the less said about them, the better. There was one small yet important piece of news though: Cashman confirmed there are no new injuries or surgeries to report since the season ended. I guess that means Aaron Judge’s toe surgery is scheduled for sometime in March. Kidding! Or am I? Let’s get to today’s post. As a reminder, the Offseason Plan will be published Monday. Thanks for being patient.

1. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Every few years a “we gotta have this guy” free agent comes along and this offseason that player is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, ace right-hander of the Orix Buffaloes in Japan. Yamamoto turned only 25 in August and he is pretty clearly the best pitcher in the world not employed by an MLB team.

“He’s special,” an international scouting executive told Kyle Glaser recently. “There have been some special guys who are 5-foot-10. There aren’t that many, that’s the concern, but the stuff is good enough. He’s got the stuff to do it and he holds his stuff. I don’t think he’ll have an issue.”

This past weekend the Buffaloes confirmed they will post Yamamoto this offseason. The announcement came only a few hours after they lost the decisive Game 7 of the Japan Series. Yamamoto was brilliant in Game 6, allowing one run in a 138-pitch complete game. He struck out a Japan Series record 14 batters to force the winner-take-all Game 7 (video).

"I did not do anything special today. I pitched the way I normally do. I got better around halfway through, so I was able to be aggressive,” Yamamoto told Jason Coskrey after Game 6. “... I knew I was getting a lot of strikeouts. I only focused on each inning, so I didn’t worry about that.”

Yamamoto will be the most sought after Japanese player since Shohei Ohtani and he might be the best Japanese pitcher ever to make the jump to MLB through the posting system, ahead of Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka. At the very least, he’s in the conversation. Let’s dig into the right-hander and see what he has to offer, and whether he’s a fit for the Yankees (spoiler: yes).

Background

Unlike Darvish and Ohtani and Tanaka, who were highly regarded as amateurs, Yamamoto was not a top prospect. He was a fourth round pick in the seven-round NPB draft in 2016, he began his career in the bullpen, and it was not until a few weeks into the 2019 season that he moved into the rotation for good. Yamamoto has been off the charts good since then:

Yamamoto allowed two (2) home runs in 171 innings in 2023. You know what that means, right? The Yankees will sign him and he’ll give up back-to-back homers to the first two batters he faces. It has been foretold. Remember when Tanaka gave up a homer to Melky Cabrera, the first batter he faced with the Yankees (video)? Good times.

Anyway, Yamamoto has won the pitching Triple Crown each of the last three seasons and he’s won the last three Eiji Sawamura Awards as well. That is NPB’s Cy Young equivalent. He’s the second pitcher ever to win three straight Sawamura Awards. Yamamoto was named Pacific League MVP in 2021 and 2022, and could very well win the award again in 2023. He’s also thrown two career no-hitters, including one with Brian Cashman in attendance.

I should note Yamamoto was pretty bad in his first two postseason starts this year. He allowed five runs in his Climax Series start (NPB’s Championship Series equivalent) and a career high seven runs in Game 1 of the Japan Series. Then he was great in Game 6. That all said, Orix has gone to three straight Japan Series and Yamamoto was excellent in past postseasons.

Yamamoto won Olympic gold in 2021, the Japan Series in 2022, and the World Baseball Classic in 2023. He made one start and one relief appearance in the WBC, allowing two runs and striking out 12 in 7.1 innings. Yamamoto’s credentials are unimpeachable. The guy has won everywhere and his NPB numbers are as good as you could possibly want.

“I told him I was biased because I grew up a Yankee fan,” New Jersey native Frank Schwindel, a former big leaguer and Yamamoto’s teammate this season, jokingly told Gary Phillips about Yamamoto picking his brain about MLB. “... Awesome teammate. Pretty much all business (on the field). He takes baseball so seriously. He’s definitely a competitor and puts baseball first.”

Pitch mix

Yamamoto has a 94-96 mph four-seamer he’s run up to 99 mph, a splitter that is his putaway pitch, a high spin curveball, and a cutter. R.J. Anderson notes each “of those four pitches has gone for a strike more than 65% of the time (in 2023).” It is entirely possible I ran the search incorrectly (if not likely), but I couldn’t find an MLB pitcher with a 65% strike rate on three different pitches in 2023, let alone four (min. 100 thrown per pitch type).

(Gerrit Cole came closest. He was at 69.4% strikes on his four-seamer and 70.2% on his cutter this year, then 63.6% on his curveball and 61.2% on his slider.)

There is such a thing as throwing too many strikes. MLB hitters strike out more than NPB hitters, plus they hit for more power, so it makes sense for MLB pitchers to pitch off the plate more than their NPB counterparts. By all accounts Yamamoto has premium stuff – maybe not on par with Cole’s stuff, but premium – so perhaps throwing too many strikes won’t be an issue for him in MLB. Sometimes less is more when it comes to filling up the zone though, and Yamamoto could learn that the hard way. There may be an adjustment period here.

Yamamoto’s arsenal is uncommon for a Japanese pitcher. There aren’t many curveball pitchers in NPB or cutters in general. Darvish and Ohtani didn’t fully incorporate those pitches until they got to MLB and got some innings under their belt, and Tanaka never used his curveball as anything more than a surprise pitch to steal a strike. Yamamoto has a very MLB-like arsenal (he can flip his curve in for a strike and also bury it for whiffs).

“It’s actually not Japanese style how he pitches,” former Yankees prospect Ryan McBroom, who played against Yamamoto in Japan the last two years, told Joel Sherman. “It’s actually more American style. Everything is hard. Firm fastball. Even the breaking ball off of that is hard. Everything’s just real firm and really sharp. He’ll do really well in the States. He comes right at you. I’m telling you, he’s electric.”

Aram Leighton took a deep dive into Yamamoto and I highly recommend giving his post a read. I don’t want to blockquote the whole thing, so here are the highlights:

Fastball: “It sits near the mid 90s, occasionally touching the upper 90s, but it’s the release height and shape that make it so dominant … Yamamoto’s average four seam release height is around 5.4-5.5 feet. For context, around 80% of MLB four seam fastballs are released from a higher spot. The low release point, paired with the more than 17 inches of induced vertical break on the pitch, help him rack up a lot of whiffs in the zone.”

Splitter: “No full-time starting pitcher in Major League Baseball threw a splitter with a higher average velocity, maintaining the appearance of a fastball before falling out of the air to the arm side while throwing it nearly 30% of the time … The most similar comparison to Yamamoto’s splitter profile is Alex Cobb’s [Cobb had a top 10 splitter in 2023 by Statcast’s run values]”

Curveball: “Despite the big break and lower velocity (upper-70s), it is extremely sharp with late bite at 2800-2900 RPM. It’s fairly common for pitchers who get as much vertical and horizontal break on their curveball to struggle to consistently land it for a strike, but Yamamoto racked up a 70% strike rate with the pitch in 2023.”

Cutter: “More of a weak-contact generator than a strikeout pitch, his cutter sits in the low 90s with just enough movement to avoid barrels … It’s easily an above average offering and a fantastic fourth pitch.”

Leighton also notes Yamamoto throws a few sweepers per game and it has the “potential to be a devastating pitch, with a true sweeper shape at 12-14 inches of horizontal movement and little vertical break.” I could absolutely see whichever MLB team signs Yamamoto getting him to use that sweeper more often. Go read Leighton’s post in its entirety. Here’s more video.

Japanese pitchers typically see their strikeout rate tick up in MLB. Kodai Senga went from 27.4% strikeouts in NPB in 2022 to 29.1% in MLB in 2023. Tanaka went from 22.3% to 26.0%. There is a much greater emphasis on contact in Japan. With a good fastball, a knockout splitter, and a quality curveball, Yamamoto could push a 30% strikeout rate next season. He has the tools.

“It’s legit. It’s better than Senga,” an evaluator told Mike Puma (subs. req’d) about Yamamoto’s stuff. “Yamamoto is younger. I think he has better fastball command. Senga’s cutter and split are probably better, but (Yamamoto) is a better pitcher, which is crazy to say because Senga is really good too.”

(Senga had a 2.98 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 166.1 innings with the Mets this season. That 29.1% strikeout rate came with an 11.1% walk rate, though he whittled it down to 9.6% in the second half. Senga had some control issues early in the season.)

Yamamoto is listed at 5-foot-10 and 176 lbs., so he is considered undersized for a right-handed pitcher. In the Expansion Era (since 1961), only 20 pitchers standing no taller than 5-foot-10 have put up at least +10 WAR, though two of the top seven are active (Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman) and three others recently retired (Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Mike Leake).

Being undersized creates durability concerns, that’s just the way it is, but teams know so much about pitching these days. Arsenals are tailored to each pitcher’s release point and the plane of his fastball, and really the plane on his everything. It wasn’t too long ago that teams didn’t really know how to help short pitchers be successful other than preach “pitch down in the zone.”

Pitchers who have lower release points, either because they’re short (like Yamamoto) or have a low arm slot, have success with the vertical approach angle concept, which is just a fancy way of saying getting the most out of the optical illusion created by pitches that don’t sink as much as expected. How to make a “flat” fastball from a short pitcher play up, that kinda thing.

Yamamoto is on the short side, though he is coming over with four pitches and good control, and will presumably sign with a big market contender. Realistically, the teams with the financial might to sign Yamamoto already have good pitching infrastructures in place, the Yankees included. Japanese pitchers identified as studs typically are studs in MLB, and in relatively short order. I see no reason to think Yamamoto would be different.

“It’s been a pilgrimage over there from front office people to see him,” Giants POBO Farhan Zaidi, who himself went to Japan to see Yamamoto earlier this year, told Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d.) recently. “He’s really one of the top starting pitchers in the world. I know it sounds like an exaggeration, but it’s not.”

(If you care, ZiPS projects a 3.57 ERA (116 ERA+) and +3.7 WAR next season. PECOTA (subs. req’d) projects an 88 DRA-, meaning 12% better than league average.)

Injury history

Pretty clean. Yamamoto has never had an arm injury as far as I can tell. He has had two oblique injuries within the last 13 months though. Yamamoto exited Game 1 of the 2022 Japan Series in the fifth inning with what the Buffaloes called a cramp, though he did not pitch again in the series (it went seven games). He missed a few starts with an oblique injury this summer as well.

Two oblique injuries within a year is not great, especially since the Yankees are seemingly unable to prevent soft tissue injuries or keep their players on the field in general. The main takeaway is a healthy arm. No shoulder or elbow troubles. Yamamoto has an unconventional delivery because he doesn’t lift his leg much, but his arm works well and everything is nice and clean.

You can never really know with pitcher injuries. Sometimes guys get hurt and there’s just nothing you can do about it. For a guy closing in on 1,000 career innings at age 25, Yamamoto’s health track record is as good as you could possibly expect. Two oblique injuries in relatively quick succession is not a dealbreaker for me.

Contract projections

Tanaka is the only reasonable contract benchmark for Yamamoto. Darvish came over when the posting system was still a blind bid (he could only negotiate with the Rangers), Ohtani was subject to the international bonus pools because he was only 23, and Senga turned 30 a few weeks after signing with the Mets. None of those situations are comparable to Yamamoto.

Like Yamamoto, Tanaka came over soon after his 25th birthday, and he was the consensus best pitcher in Japan. The Yankees gave Tanaka seven years and $155M – still the record for a player coming over from Japan – and that was a decade ago now. Offer Yamamoto seven years and $155M and you might finish sixth in the bidding. Here are the various contract projections:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 7 years and $203M
• ESPN (subs. req’d): 7 years and $212M
• FanGraphs: 7 years and $175M
• MLBTR: 9 years and $225M

I’m with MLBTR here. I think this is a Gerrit Cole situation in which everyone comes in with seven-year offers, it becomes clear it’ll take eight years to get it done, then one team puts the ninth year on the table to close the deal. A seven-year contract would be a win for the team. I think you have to go in expecting it’ll take eight years, and a ninth year can’t be off the table if you really want him.

For what it’s worth, Will Sammon (subs. req’d) recently reported Yamamoto wants to play in a big market, and he’s also open-minded about playing with another Japanese player. That’s not nothing. Seniority is important in Japanese culture. Ultimately, this all sounds like Yamamoto saying he wants the richest teams to pursue him, including the Mets with Senga.

How does the posting system work?

Orix announced they will post Yamamoto a few days ago, though they really only announced their intention to post him. There’s a formal application process and MLB has to review everything. Once that happens, MLB will inform teams Yamamoto is available. That could happen any day now, and once it does happen, Yamamoto will have 45 days to sign a contract.

Whichever team signs Yamamoto will owe the Buffaloes a posting fee, which is based on the size on the contract. Here is the posting fee structure:

• Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of guaranteed value
• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% on everything over $25M
• Contract worth $50M or more: $9.375M plus 15% on everything over $50M

MLBTR’s projected nine-year, $225M contract would come with a $35.625M posting fee, so all-in we’re talking $260.625M. The posting fee does not count against the luxury tax payroll, which is good news for Hal Steinbrenner, but that’s a real expense and it’s a big one. Sign Yamamoto to that nine-year contract and you have to cut the Buffaloes a $35.625M check.

I should mention that, when Tanaka came over, his $20M posting fee was paid out across two years. MLB introduced that rule to give small market teams a better chance to sign Japanese players. The posting system has changed since then and I don’t know whether the installment plan is still in place. Probably is. Either way, Yamamoto’s posting fee will be a significant expense.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Pretty clearly yes. Yamamoto is only 25 and by all accounts he has the ability to pitch at or near the front of a rotation. Those players rarely become available and maybe once a decade does one become available for nothing but money. There’s no draft pick compensation attached, you don’t have to trade anything to get him, nothing like that. It’s a straight cash transaction.

Given his age, Yamamoto fits every team and any contention cycle. Think you’re a year away from being a serious contender like, say, the Tigers? That’s okay. Yamamoto will still be in his prime a year from now. The other day Hal said the Yankees want to continue getting younger. That’s great! Yamamoto fits a youth movement nicely. (So does Juan Soto, but I digress.)

“Yamamoto is a stud,” Lars Nootbaar, Yamamoto’s teammate during the WBC, told Derrick Goold recently. “He’s got three plus pitches. Splitter might be plus-plus. Simple delivery but can get it up to upper 90s. I think he’ll come in and make a major impact. And he’s still very young. Awesome guy. I think he’ll do very well.”

The Yankees have passed up so much elite prime-aged talent in recent years – Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, and others all became free agents in their mid-20s – and those decisions look worse with each passing season. Watching Seager rake in October after the Rangers signed him to replace Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a special kind of salt in the wound.

There is no unringing those bells. The Yankees can’t go back and sign Harper or Seager. All they can do is learn from those mistakes, and the lesson is sign elite in-their-prime players when they become available, you idiots. Yamamoto is a pitcher and comes with injury risk, that’s just the way it is, but he offers so much more upside and peak years than the usual free agent pitcher.

On that note, here are free agent MLB starters by projected 2024 WAR (not including Ohtani since he won’t pitch next season):

1. Aaron Nola: +4.2 WAR
2. Blake Snell: +3.2 WAR
3. Sonny Gray: +3.2 WAR
4. Jordan Montgomery: +3.1 WAR
5. Eduardo Rodriguez: +2.8 WAR

Projections aren’t everything but good gravy, only four guys projected for +3 WAR? The youngest of whom (Montgomery) turns 31 next month? The best projection for an under-30 pitcher is Julio Urías at +2.6 WAR, and he’s facing a suspension under the domestic violence policy. Next best is 29-year-old Lucas Giolito at +2.3 WAR. He had a 4.88 ERA (5.27 FIP) this season.

Unless you’re willing to trade a bunch of prospects for someone like, say, Dylan Cease or Jesús Luzardo, Yamamoto is the best combination of youth and potential excellence available this offseason, and he’s the only combination of youth and potential excellence available for nothing but money. Yamamoto would improve the Yankees in the short and long-term.

The Yankees have plenty of history with Japanese players. Some of it is bad (Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu) but most of it is very good (Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Hideki Matsui), and they know how to help these players adjust to a new culture, and also a new baseball reality. MLB has more travel and more games than NPB, and a more grueling schedule in general.

The Yankees also know how much additional revenue a star Japanese player can generate. I don’t think Yamamoto would bring in Ohtani money, Ohtani’s a special case, but whatever this dollar amount is, it’s greater than zero. To an owner, Yamamoto is an investment opportunity as much as a ballplayer. To some extent, he’ll pay for himself. There’s money to be made here.

You have to get nitpicky to find red flags with Yamamoto. He’s on the short side, he has a recent history of oblique injuries, and his first two postseason starts this year stunk. Otherwise the checks just about every box you could want. There are times when the Yankees just need to be the Yankees, and crush the rest of the sport with their financial might. This is one of them.

“He’d be one where he could be a big money guy,” a front office person told Glaser. “No injuries, super durable, good delivery, fast arm. The sky is the limit on this guy.”

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner broke their silence earlier this week and reader, I don’t have the strength to recap everything. They made me do it at CBS, so I will refer you to that. What stood out most to me is how unmoved Hal seems to be by the current state of affairs. I’m not saying he needs to throw people under the bus or try to be like his father, but he has a very “why is everyone so upset? I don’t get it” air of indifference to him. Speaking as a fan, I want my owner to show he’s as invested in the team as I am. That’s the bare minimum, really. Yet every single time Hal opens his mouth, he leaves me thinking he doesn’t really care about the team, and I don't think that's accurate. Hal does care, he’s just very bad at showing it. He is so uninspiring as an owner. There’s no leadership at all. Words don’t really matter, actions do, but Hal’s and Cashman’s press conferences Tuesday seemed like they were designed specifically to enrage the fan base.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jacob asks: With Craig Counsell off to the Cubs and with the Brewers already trading Mark Canha to the Tigers, is Milwaukee retooling/rebuilding? If so, which targets should the Yankees be calling about? Burnes and Peralta come to mind, but would you rather just have Yamamoto instead?

Ken Rosenthal (sub. req’d) says the Brewers are “open to moving virtually any player on (their) roster.” They were going to have to make some big decisions no matter what this offseason. Counsell leaving and Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery, which wipes out his final year of team control, suggests Milwaukee will pivot toward selling, and cash in Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes as trade chips a year before they become free agents. Maybe not a rebuild, but a retool.

I would rather sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto than trade prospects for one year of Burnes, though I am not against trading for Burnes. I'd rather just spend money on Yamamoto. Freddy Peralta has three cheap years remaining on his contract, so while he may not be off-limits, the asking price figures to be high. Closer Devin Williams makes sense for the Yankees (and every other team). He has two years of control remaining and a dominant, bat-missing pitch in his Airbender (i.e. changeup).

Other than Peralta and Williams, Milwaukee’s most desirable trade pieces are pre-arbitration guys like catcher William Contreras and outfielders Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell. If they make those guys available, the Yankees should pounce, but I get the feeling the asking price will be through the roof. Realistically, I’m not sure the Yankees and Brewers match up especially well other than Burnes and Williams.

John asks: How would you assign probabilities to the 3 potential outcomes for Peraza: a) he sticks with the team and he contributes, b) they try to make him work but he ends up like another prospect that just runs out of runway and dropped for peanuts (Clint, Andujar, Thairo, Florial), c) they sell high on him (Justus Sheffield).

My confidence in the Yankees’ decision-making and hitter development are at an all-time low, so I will say:

• Sticks and contributes: 25%
• Stalls out, kept too long: 60%
• Sell high: 15%

Peraza hasn’t played much at the MLB level – 248 plate appearances spread across multiple call ups – though he hasn’t hit when he’s been given a chance (.216/.298/.306 and 75 wRC+), and the contact quality is terrible (85.8 mph average exit velocity with 51.5% ground balls and a 50.9% pull rate). He rolls over on everything to the left side of the infield.

Peraza’s defense is very good, even with so little experience at third base he looks good there, so he has a higher floor than guys like Miguel Andújar and Clint Frazier. If Andújar and Frazier didn’t hit, they were useless. Peraza can at least play good defense at an up the middle position, giving him a better chance to contribute and likely giving him a longer leash too.

The Yankees have made it pretty clear Gleyber Torres is not sticking around long-term. Either they’ll trade him this offseason or let him walk next offseason. They want to work Peraza into the everyday lineup. Is it worth it? Could be, sure, though the early returns aren’t exactly impressive. Whatever the Yankees do with Peraza, I will believe it’s the right thing when I see it working out on the field. No more blind faith and assuming they know what they’re doing with young players.

Michael asks: Should the Yankees sign Erick Fedde? He had a great year in the KBO and could be an under the radar pickup.

Merrill Kelly made Fedde a lot of money in October. Well, Fedde made himself a lot of money with the way he pitched for the NC Dinos this year, but Kelly dominated in the postseason, and now every team will want their own Kelly, the guy who figured things out in Korea. It is a copycat sport. When one team does something successfully, everyone follows along.

Kelly and Chris Flexen are the recent examples of a pitcher struggling here, going to KBO to get his career on track, and then coming back to MLB to pitch well (Kelly never actually pitched in MLB before going to KBO, but you know what I mean). Flexen had two good years when he returned, then fell off. Kelly’s gotten better and better since returning and just had his best season yet. Here’s how each of them did in their final KBO season:

Fedde also had a 70.0% ground ball rate this season. He was utterly dominant. He had one of the best pitching seasons in KBO history. Flexen was very good in 2020, and while Kelly’s final KBO season doesn’t stand out, they had their own juiced ball season in Korea in 2018. The league averages were a 5.17 ERA and 1.24 HR/9 that year. Kelly was very good.

Fedde, 31 in February, is a former first round pick (No. 18 overall in 2014) who had a 5.41 ERA (5.17 FIP) in parts of six seasons with the Nationals. During his time there Washington was a poor pitcher development organization, and Fedde made a few changes after getting non-tendered last offseason. From Jesse Dougherty in September:

First, though, he was assessed at (Push Performance in Arizona) and put on a program. Push partners with Next Era, a physical therapy facility that was critical in mending Fedde’s shoulder. By the end of 2022, Fedde knew he had to get healthy before he could fine-tune his pitches. But because Push and Next Era work in tandem, they were able to tackle multiple objectives at once. Beyond sounder mechanics, they looked at Fedde’s fastball shape, overhauled his breaking ball and tweaked the grip and wrist position when he throws his change-up.

…

The biggest changes to Fedde’s pitch mix are that he now throws a sweeper — a slider with more horizontal than north-to-south movement — and has upped his change-up usage. Last season with the Nationals, he threw 39.9 percent sinkers, 28.8 percent curves, 27.6 percent cutters and only 3.6 percent change-ups. With the Dinos, he figures he is around 25 percent for each pitch, something that has been pushed by the team’s analytics staff.

Fedde is healthy, he changed his pitch mix, and he got away from the Nationals. Those are all reasons to believe this year’s success is sustainable. Obviously not at that same level, he’s not going to come back to MLB and be a 2.00 ERA starter, but can he be a league average pitcher now? Maybe even a bit better? Possibly! There’s a better chance of it now than before.

Kelly and Flexen signed similar contracts when they returned to MLB. Kelly got two years and $5.5M with two club options. The deal could max out at $14.5M. Flexen received two years and $4.75M with one club option. His contract could max out at $12.75M. Does two years and $6M with a club option or two get it done with Fedde? That seems reasonable enough.

I’m intrigued by Fedde as an alternative to re-signing Frankie Montas or signing some other back of the rotation addition, not as an alternative to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Sign Yamamoto, package Mike King and Clarke Schmidt to get Juan Soto, then sign Fedde to hold down the No. 4-5 spots with Nestor Cortes? Sure, I could get on board with that. As long as he’s an addition and not the addition, yeah, this could work. The precedent suggests it will be so little money, you know?

Kevin asks: Is this year’s weak free agent class a) a coincidence of timing, or b) a sign that other clubs are increasingly locking down their best players and the Yankees are (yet again) behind the times?

Little of column A, little of column B. Ozzie Albies, Luis Castillo, Rafael Devers, and Matt Olson are the big names who would have become free agents this offseason had they not signed their extensions. Max Fried and Anthony Santander also would have become free agents had their service time not been manipulated (and Gleyber Torres too?). Ronald Acuña would have been a free agent had he not had his service time manipulated and not signed his extension. And every few years you run into a weak free agent class. It happens. The Yankees should be more proactive locking up their young players, though to be fair, they haven’t had many worth locking up the last few years. None since Torres, really. Would you blame them for not signing Anthony Volpe long-term this offseason? I wouldn’t.

Larry asks: Everyone knows the Atlanta Braves are a better team, and had a better season, than the Diamondbacks. Are we at the point where it is more prestigious to win a division than to win the World Series?

I don’t think so. You play to win championships, right? We can acknowledge winning the division is an accomplishment and something to be proud of, but it’s not the ultimate goal. Speaking from experience, winning the World Series is roughly a billion times more satisfying than winning the division, and am I certain every single player would agree with me.

Given the current postseason format, I think we just have to accept the best team will not always win the World Series. Will they win it even half the time? I don’t think the Rangers weren’t the best team this year. The Braves weren’t in 2021 (88-73!). The Nationals weren’t in 2019. I’m not sure the Giants were the best team in the league in any of their recent World Series years.

There are so many teams and so many rounds in the postseason now, which only means more chances for weird things to happen, and the script to be flipped. Maybe baseball should create its own President’s Trophy, the trophy the NHL gives to the team with the best regular season record. As a fan, I don’t think I would find that especially satisfying.

Ryan asks: If Cashman was promoted, let go or quit and you were contacted to be the next GM, would you do it? Do you think you’d have success or is couch GMing as far as you could go?

Assuming I received a salary commensurate with Yankees GM, yes, I would do it in a heartbeat, and I would be terrible at it. I would make the Rockies look like the Braves. Dave Littlefield forgot to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft one year. I would make a mistake just as stupid at least once a day every day until they fired me. Of this I have no doubt.

I was young and dumb once and there was a time I believed I would be a better GM than the people who are actually GMs, but I was wrong. The job is so demanding – you never get time off, ever – and there are so many decisions that have to be made and so many departments that have to be run. It’s not as simple as sign this guy and trade for that guy. Beyond being wholly unqualified, I would also be overwhelmed by the workload. I don’t have the people skills, baseball smarts, or general savvy to do the job anywhere close to competently. I am right where I belong.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)