Poll: Five hypothetical Juan Soto trade packages

Hal: “What more do you want? He’s already wearing pinstripes!”

By almost any measure, the Padres were the most disappointing team in baseball this season. They came into the season expecting to contend for a World Series title, and instead they went 82-80 and missed the postseason. And they had to win 14 of their final 16 games just to finish with a record that good. A colossal disappointment, the 2023 Padres were.

“We started this year with World Series expectations, and I think rightfully so, coming off the (2022 NLCS) and having a very talented Major League roster,” GM A.J. Preller told AJ Cassavell earlier this month. "Obviously it was a frustrating and disappointing season. We never really fired on all cylinders. We didn’t play the baseball we thought we were capable of. Personally, for myself, it feels like a lost and missed opportunity.”

The Yankees also went 82-80 this season, though the similarities to the Padres end there. The Yankees had a -25 run differential. They overachieved, if anything. The Padres had a +104 run differential. +104! They had the eighth best run differential in baseball. San Diego was done in by a wretched performance in one-run games and extra-inning games.

• One-run games: 9-23 (.281) (30th in MLB)
• Extra-inning games: 2-12 (.143) (29th in MLB)

I don’t want to call those coin flip games, there’s skill involved in winning close games, but many times those games come down to a bounce or a borderline call. All the Padres had to do was go 5-9 in extra innings or 12-20 in one-run games, and they’re in the postseason. Apparently that was a bridge too far. They’re watching the postseason from home like the rest of us.

Given the talent on the roster and the unlikelihood they’ll be that bad in close games again, the Padres could simply run it back next season, and give it another go. It wouldn’t be crazy. Instead, ownership is cutting payroll to $200M or so (partly because they have to get back within MLB’s debt parameters), which means chopping about $50M off this year’s payroll.

The Padres have about $100M coming off the books this winter, so getting down to $200M won’t be too difficult. The problem is that $100M includes likely NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and stud closer Josh Hader becoming free agents, and it doesn’t include arbitration raises either. According to Cot’s, the Padres already have $143M committed to only 12 players in 2024.

Among San Diego’s arb-eligible players is the great Juan Soto, who MLBTR projects to receive a $33M salary next season. That would be the highest salary ever for an arb-eligible player, beating the $30M the Angels paid Shohei Ohtani this year. Soto turned 25 last week (!) and he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball since being called up as a 19-year-old in May 2018.

Soto gives back value in the outfield (career -15 DRS and -19 OAA) and on the bases (career -9.1 runs), but the offense more than makes up for it. Hitters who begin their careers like Soto typically wind up in the Hall of Fame. Here is the complete list of players with a career 150 wRC+ through their age 24 season (min. 2,500 plate appearances):

1. Ted Williams: 183 wRC+ through age 24
2. Shoeless Joe Jackson: 177 wRC+
3. Ty Cobb: 172 wRC+
4. Mike Trout: 167 wRC+
5. Albert Pujols: 166 wRC+
6. Mickey Mantle: 164 wRC+
7. Jimmie Foxx: 162 wRC+
8. Tris Speaker: 160 wRC+
9. Rogers Hornsby: 155 wRC+
10. Juan Soto: 154 wRC+
11. Arky Vaughan: 153 wRC+
12. Eddie Mathews: 152 wRC+

Eleven of the greatest players to ever live, and Juan Soto. That’s the kinda start Soto’s had to his career and the kinda trajectory he’s on. He’s someone the Padres should open their wallet to sign long-term. The payroll efficiency types will say Soto’s next contract is an overpay and bad value, but everyone else will understand Soto is 1 of 1 and he breaks most value models.

And yet, there is speculation the Padres could trade Soto this offseason, which is not something a team in contention should do. If you’re trying to win the World Series, your odds of doing so are better with Soto on your roster than without. There are many reasons behind the Soto trade speculation, some of which are better than others. Here are four:

• Soto is a year away from free agency and is unlikely to sign an extension before then.
• The Padres want to cut payroll and trading Soto would go a long way toward that.
• They could get a lot of talent in return, setting the franchise up better long-term.
• The core needs to be shaken up after a disappointing 2023 season.

It never hurts to listen on your players and, depending who you believe, the Yankees either have (Andy Martino) or have not (Jon Heyman) discussed Soto with the Padres. My guess is the Yankees reached out and said hey, we’d love to talk, and that’s it so far. No names exchanged or anything like that. Just starting a dialogue. We’re ready to talk whenever you are.

Soto is pretty much exactly what the Yankees need as a lefty hitting outfielder with power, plate discipline, and swagger. Maybe the Yankees would ruin him, Soto seems like the kinda guy who needs to be himself and be allowed to run free to have success, but I would take my chances. Elite prime-aged talent is something the Yankees should always target, and that’s Soto.

With that in mind, let’s put together a few hypothetical trade packages for Soto. I’m assuming we are acquiring one year of Soto and one year of Soto only. There’s no extension attached. As always, my trade proposal sucks. Let’s get to it.

The Lindor Model

Yankees get: Soto, Matt Carpenter, Robert Suarez
Padres get: Clarke Schmidt, Oswald Peraza, John Cruz, Cam Schlittler

Matching up: Three years ago the Mets acquired one year of Francisco Lindor and his large arbitration salary ($22.3M), and, to do so, they gave up the following:

• IF Amed Rosario: Three years of a former top prospect who was up and down in MLB.
• IF Andrés Giménez: Recent global top 50 prospect who was so-so in limited MLB time.
• OF Isaiah Greene: A teenage outfielder in rookie ball (team top 20 prospect).
• RHP Josh Wolf: A lower minors build-a-pitcher prospect (team top 30 prospect).
• $27M in additional salary relief (RHP Carlos Carrasco).

Piecing together a similar package for Soto takes some creativity. Oddly, the Yankees don’t have anyone with exactly three years of control remaining like Rosario (not unless you count Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney). Schmidt has four years of control, and he kinda sorta is the position player version of Rosario as a former touted prospect who’s been up and down in the show.

Back in the day Rosario was viewed as one of the game’s top prospects (Rosario vs. Gleyber Torres was a popular talking point for a few months) and Schmidt was not that, but at some point prospect stock no longer matters. Rosario was traded four seasons into his big league career. What he did in the show was more relevant than his prospect rankings.

At the time of the trade Rosario was, at best, a league average shortstop who flashed the ability to be something greater. Schmidt is, at best, a league average starter who has flashed the ability to be something greater. It’s four years of Schmidt vs. three years of Rosario. Consider the extra year payment for the inherent injury risk associated with pitchers (and with Schmidt in particular).

Peraza and Giménez are almost a perfect match. Giménez was a top 50-ish prospect with great defense and a strong minor league track record, though he didn’t show much with the bat in limited big league time. That’s Peraza. The problem is the Padres don’t need another infielder. They are more than set there. Maybe Everson Pereira is the better fit as the Giménez piece?

Greene was the No. 69 pick and an $850,000 bonus guy the summer before being traded, so he was well-regarded, like Cruz is now. Wolf was like countless lower minors pitching prospects. Good stuff, questionable command, needed refinement. We could plug in about a dozen different guys here as our Wolf piece. I went with Schlittler because I had to put someone in there.

As for the money, Suarez has $20M coming to him from 2024-25, and he’s similar to Carrasco as a “good pitcher in the past but maybe not moving forward” type. Carpenter figures to pick up his $5.5M player option. That’s close to the $27M the Mets took on with Carrasco. The issue is Suarez has a two-year, $16M player option in his contract. So, if he pitches poorly or breaks down, that $20M becomes $36M. Perhaps San Diego would cover part of it in that case?

What do the Padres get out of it? A starter they can plug right into their rotation and control beyond 2023, as well as a young MLB ready position player and some prospect depth. The upside is significant if Schmidt builds on this season and Peraza starts to figure things out and become the player prospect hounds believe he has the potential to be.

There’s also downside because Schmidt has an injury history and Peraza might not figure it out, in which case the Padres just traded one of the best players in the game for no real help in 2024. Carpenter is a release candidate, but Suarez might be San Diego’s best reliever right now. The “could be good if healthy” thing applies to Suarez like it does Schmidt.

What are the Yankees giving up? Their No. 4 or 5 starter and a very good infield prospect who, as of right now, does not have a full-time lineup spot, plus lower minors depth. They’re also taking on a bunch of money in Suarez and Carpenter, but Suarez at least has a chance to be effective, and those two are owed only $15.5M in 2024. They’re not that expensive.

The Mookie Model

Yankees get: Soto, Yu Darvish, $39M
Padres get: Anthony Volpe, Spencer Jones, Ben Rice

Matching up: The Red Sox decided they didn’t need Mookie Betts, and rather than get as much talent as possible, they used Betts to dump half of David Price’s contract. In return they received five years of Alex Verdugo, a global top 50 prospect (Jeter Downs), and a team top 30 prospect (Connor Wong). Boston has gotten a total of +10.0 WAR out of the trade, or slightly more than Mookie’s 2023 alone (+8.4 WAR). Whatever man. Not my problem.

Volpe is the best match for Verdugo. Verdugo was a global top 20 prospect back in the day and he hit .294/.342/.475 (112 wRC+) with the Dodgers the year prior to the trade. Volpe was more highly regarded as a prospect and he plays the more premium position (and plays it well), though there are more questions about the bat. We need to match five years of a good young player who was not far removed from being a top prospect. Volpe is our only real option here.

Like Jones, Downs reached Double-A at the end of his most recent season, and Downs then and Jones now are ranked in roughly the same range by prospect folks. Wong and Rice are similar as catchers who most recently played in Double-A and could potentially contribute on both sides of the ball. Wong is the better defender and Rice is the better hitter, but the total value projects to be in the same ballpark. We’re pretty close here.

Boston ate half the $96M they owed Price to facilitate the trade. Darvish has $78M remaining on his contract and half of that is $39M. Price only had three years remaining on his deal though. Darvish has another five years to go. Also, Darvish has a full no-trade clause and is said to love San Diego. Good thing this is all hypothetical, eh?

What do the Padres get out of it? A young everyday position player (but again, they don’t need a shortstop), a tooled out position player prospect, a third prospect, and a whole bunch of salary relief. Darvish is nominally San Diego’s ace with Snell becoming a free agent, though he is 37 now and he just threw 136.1 innings with a 4.56 ERA (4.08 FIP) around injuries. You don’t have to try hard to see that contract going very sour very soon, and San Diego wanting to get out of it.

Like the Red Sox with Betts and Price, the Padres would use their star position player to unload half of a troublesome pitching contract while getting a young big leaguer and a pair of lottery tickets. It’s not the most exciting package, but that’s the way it goes. The more money I eat, the less you get in return. Volpe and Jones may seem like a ton, but is it really? For Juan Soto?

What are the Yankees giving up? Their hand-picked franchise shortstop, the guy they wouldn’t dare block (“block”) with a star free agent shortstop, but also a player who underwhelmed this past season and could be replaced from within (by Peraza). Jones and Rice are the cost of doing business. And, honestly, getting five years of Darvish at $7.8M per year is not anything to sweat. Won’t cripple payroll, easy to swallow and release if performance warrants it, and there’s upside there. Darvish at that price as your No. 4 or 5 starter is good living.

The Goldschmidt Model

Yankees get: Soto
Padres get: Austin Wells, Randy Vásquez, Caleb Durbin, Kyle Carr

Matching up: Here now is a trade involving one year of a star player in which money was not attached to the star player. The Diamondbacks traded Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals for four young players. Or, really, three young players plus one competitive balance draft pick. The Yankees don’t have any of those to trade, so I subbed in a fourth prospect instead.

Here are the three living, breathing players the Cardinals gave up for Goldschmidt:

• C Carson Kelly: A global top 50 prospect who was MLB ready.
• RHP Luke Weaver: Five years of a former team top five prospect.
• IF Andrew Young: A potential utility player (team top 30 prospect).

Kelly was capital-B Blocked by Yadier Molina, so the Cardinals had no second thought about giving him up. Wells now is not as highly ranked as Kelly then (Wells is more of a global top 75 prospect at the moment) but he fits well. He’s ready to step in behind the plate and he has all six years of team control remaining. Pretty straightforward, that is.

The Yankees don’t have a Weaver type. Schmidt would have been a great match last year at this time, but now he has four years of control remaining, not five. Vásquez kinda sorta fits as a young starter the Padres could put in the rotation next season. If anything, Vásquez now might have more value than Weaver then because Weaver hadn’t pitched all that well with St. Louis (4.73 ERA and 4.10 FIP in 233 innings) and was beginning to fall out of favor.

Young was an okay infield prospect who reached Double-A the summer before being traded, just like Durbin in our package. As for the draft pick, that wound up being No. 75 overall (Arizona used it to select outfielder Dominic Fletcher). I subbed in Carr, who the Yankees took with the No. 97 pick this year. That was their closest pick to No. 75. We could go with someone like Cruz or Henry Lalane, or another pre-breakout prospect just starting their pro career.

Although no money changed hands in the Goldschmidt trade, money is a consideration with Soto. Goldschmidt was in the final year of his team friendly extension. The Cardinals absorbed only $14.5M. Soto will be more than double that. Again, the more money I take on, the less you get in return. My four-player package might be too generous given that. Let’s roll with it though.

What do the Padres get out of it? An MLB ready catcher, a pitcher with upside they can slot into their rotation next season (or stash in Triple-A as their No. 6 starter), and some prospect depth on top of it. Have you noticed a pattern with the trades I’ve modeled our packages after? The team that got the star walked away happiest. Prospects are suspects, people.

What are the Yankees giving up? Basically their only hope at getting offense from the catcher position for the foreseeable future, a good depth starter, and two lower ranked prospects. Losing Wells would hurt, but again, it’s Juan Soto. These trade packages are a reminder elite players are rarely traded for the monster package people expect, particularly when there’s only one year of the star player involved.

The Machado Model

Yankees get: Soto
Padres get: Everson Pereira, Richard Fitts, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jared Serna, Jack Neely

Matching up: Manny Machado, Soto’s current teammate in San Diego, was not traded with a full year of control remaining. The Dodgers acquired him at the 2018 trade deadline, a few months before free agency. They got him for one postseason run, which is what you would get out of Soto. That is my basis for using Machado as a trade benchmark: one postseason run of a star.

The Orioles accepted a five-player quantity over quality package for Machado and it hasn’t really worked out. That’s irrelevant for our purposes though. Here’s what the Dodgers gave up:

• OF Yusniel Díaz: A global top 50 global who saw his stock take a hit that year.
• RHP Dean Kremer: A team top 10 prospect who had just reached Double-A.
• IF Rylan Bannon: Bat over glove and a team top 30 team prospect.
• RHP Zach Pop: High-A reliever and a team top 30 prospect.
• UTIL Breyvic Valera: Six years of a utility guy.

Although Díaz mashed in Double-A prior to the trade (.314/.428/.477 and 152 wRC+) there were concerns about the stiffness in his swing and his injury history. He was beginning to fade and those concerns were validated almost immediately after the trade. Díaz stopped hitting at a high level and kept visiting the injured list. He got one plate appearance with the big league O’s before they dropped him from the 40-man roster and he became a minor league free agent.

I don’t think it’s fair to say Pereira’s prospect stock is beginning to fade, but you have to admit the 38.8% strikeout rate and 21.1% swinging strike rate during his month in the show is concerning. His swing and miss issues date back to Double-A and big league pitchers ate him up. Pereira has an injury history too, like Díaz. I think Pereira is a pretty fair match for Díaz even though he’s played at higher levels.

Kremer had all of one Double-A start under his belt at the time of trade whereas Fitts just spent an entire season at the level, but they were similar prospects as “this guy’s a high probability big leaguer, we’re just not sure he can start long-term” types. To his credit, Kremer has shown he can start. At the time of the trade though, it was a question, as it is with Fitts now.

Serna is my Bannon (bat first infielder), Neely is my Pop (good stats reliever), and Cabrera is my Valera (utility guy). Even with his terrible 2023, Cabrera has shown much more with the bat than Valera ever did. My package feels heftier than what the Dodgers gave up for Machado (Pereira > Díaz, Fitts > Kremer, Cabrera > Valera), though we can consider that payment for getting a full year of Soto rather than three months.

What do the Padres get out of it? Other than the utility guy, no one they can put on their MLB roster on Opening Day next season. The Orioles were rebuilding and in the middle of a 108-loss season when they traded Machado. They happily accepted prospects who were a few years away from the big leagues. The Padres want to contend next year and their roster suggests they’ll have a chance to do that. Hard to believe San Diego would go for this package.

What are the Yankees giving up? Their best upper level outfield prospect, but also someone they can easily part with because he’ll be replaced by Soto. Also a good upper level pitching prospect, a high-energy utility guy, and two other depth prospect types. This feels like a package the Yankees would jump all over because Fitts might only be their sixth best upper level pitching prospect (behind Vásquez, Clayton Beeter, Chase Hampton, Drew Thorpe, and Will Warren). They’d get Soto for five players who figure to have little impact in 2024.

Let’s Make It Up As We Go

Yankees get: Soto
Padres get: Let’s talk it out

We just put together four hypothetical trade packages using recent trades involving one year (or one postseason run) of a star player as a template. Now let’s try to build a trade package from scratch because Soto is a unique player, and what worked for Betts or Goldschmidt or Lindor won’t necessarily work for Soto. The Padres may have different preferences.

Clearly, the Padres need a starting pitcher. Snell is a free agent and Darvish may be starting to age out as a different-maker, plus Michael Wacha’s could become a free agent. He made $7.5M in 2023 and the Padres now have a two-year club option worth $32M. If they decline that, Wacha has a three-year, $18.5M player option. Given the free agent market, San Diego should probably just pick up the club option? Even if they do, they still need another starter.

To give them that starter, I will begin my package with Mike King, who was so impressive during his late season cameo in the rotation. Preller has a thing for rolling the dice on upside based on small samples (like Carpenter) and King seems up his alley. Do I want to give up King? No. Do I want Soto? Yes. Giving up two years of King is a pill I can swallow (particularly with his elbow injury history).

Next, the Padres will need an outfielder to replace Soto, and the best I have to offer is Pereira. Preller cut his teeth with the Rangers in international scouting and has shown an affinity for players with loud tools, even if their approach needs work. I considered Wells here, who could platoon nicely with the righty hitting Luis Campusano behind the plate while also getting DH at-bats, but I think I can sell Preller on Pereira instead. Preller has a type and Pereira fits.

To give them a third MLB piece, how about Ian Hamilton? The Padres need bullpen help and the Yankees pull relievers out of thin air every year. It’s an organizational skill they can leverage here. I’ll give the Padres a lower minors lottery ticket in Lalane to round out my four-player package, and I’ll take back Carpenter’s $5.5M as well. I’m not sure what I’d do with him, probably bring him to camp to see what’s what before releasing him, but I’ll take the $5.5M to grease Preller's wheels a bit.

King, Pereira, Hamilton, and Lalane for Soto and Carpenter. Four for two with only minor money shenanigans in the form of Carpenter, who San Diego doesn't want. For what it’s worth, the Trade Values site says I’m overpaying big time even without Lalane, who isn’t in their database:

The thing is, I have to win a bidding war for Soto, not match an independent website’s surplus value calculation. If the Padres trade Soto – this is not a given – they will trade him for the best package, and to get him, I have to make my offer stand out. Holding firm at what you consider fair value and a rational offer is how you finish in second place. My offer includes:

• Two years of a pitcher with real upside as a starter. At worst, he’s a lockdown reliever.
• Six years of a potential middle of the order bat.
• Five years of a really good reliever (though you never know with bullpen guys).
• An on-the-rise lower minors prospect with considerable upside.

Three immediate big leaguers and an upside prospect. I have a hard time believing another team will offer that much, and that’s how you get Soto. It is one year of Soto too. He’s far from a lock to say yes to an extension, though I will get a draft pick if he leaves as a free agent. It would only be a pick after the fourth round given the Yankees’ luxury tax status, but I would get a pick. And, if things go south next year, I can trade Soto at the deadline and recoup prospects that way.

Now, is it wise for the Yankees to give up that much for one year of Soto given the state of the roster? That’s a fair question. The Yankees are not one Juan Soto away from being World Series contenders, though adding Soto is probably the single biggest step they can take toward World Series contention. Soto would be the highlight of the offseason but should not be the only move. 

* * *

I think there is a real chance the Padres trade Soto this offseason. Maybe it’s not 50/50, maybe it’s closer to 70/30 in favor of no trade, but I think there’s a real chance he’s moved. The Padres want to cut payroll and Soto is unlikely to sign long-term without first testing free agency. Trading him for a multi-player package is the best way to reduce payroll and restock the organization.

Anyway, now that I’ve laid these hypothetical trade packages out, we might as well vote on them. Which Soto trade package would you be most on board with?