September 18th, 2023: Cole, Cabrera, Florial, Prospects, Trout, Imanaga, Rays

Only one week and six days remain in the season, and despite all my bitching and moaning about the 2023 Yankees, I know I’ll miss them once the season ends. The postseason will keep me occupied for a bit and the hot stove is fun in its own way, but I’m still going to miss watching the Yankees every night. They become part of your routine because there they are, playing every day for six months. The Yankees are a companion as much as a sports team you follow. Anyway, here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon since the Yankees have an off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. The final homestand of 2023 has arrived. The Yankees have to go at least 2-4 in these six games against the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks to finish with a winning record at home. They have not had a losing record at Yankee Stadium (any version) since 1991, when they were 39-42 in the Bronx. They can manage two wins in six games. I'm sure of it. Here are a few thoughts on the Pirates series.

Cole’s Cy Young chase

Things got a little dicey Friday night. Gerrit Cole walked the first two batters he faced in his return to PNC Park – Friday was the first time he pitched in Pittsburgh since being traded away – and three batters in the first inning overall. Seven of the first 12 batters he faced reached base, four on hits and three on walks, yet the Pirates managed only two runs. Bendage but not breakage.

“Limiting damage was the key,” Cole told Jake Crouse about his five-inning, two-run outing. “Even though it was six hits, it was six singles. I feel like in those situations, we just kept making good pitches with the fastball. Sometimes it got us into trouble, but it got us out of trouble too.”

Cole could not land a breaking ball for a strike or even locate it close enough to the zone to tempt hitters. He had his fastball and his fastball alone, and fortunately his fastball is very good. Nine baserunners and only four strikeouts in five innings isn’t good in general, but considering how it started – bases loaded with no outs in the first – it’s a minor miracle he escaped with only the two runs allowed. Cole is so good.

“I was having trouble finding the strike zone,” Cole told Crouse. “... I thought the Pirates did a really good job of staying to the baseball and making good swings. It allowed them to get a lot of hits, and for the most part (they were) really not expanding the strike zone at all.”

This late in the season, one bad start won’t blow up Cole’s Cy Young chances, but I’m glad we don’t even have to think about it. Cole has a 2.81 ERA (155 ERA+) in 192 innings. He leads the AL in ERA (by 0.03), ERA+ (by 3), and innings (by 3.1), and ranks highly in basically everything that matters. Here is the MLB pitching WAR leaderboard:

1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: +6.3 WAR
2. Blake Snell, Padres: +5.3 WAR
3. Sonny Gray, Twins: +5.2 WAR
4. Logan Webb, Giants: +5.0 WAR
5. Kodai Senga, Mets: +4.2 WAR

That’s Baseball Reference WAR and I will again note the league leader in bWAR has won 10 of the last 14 Cy Youngs, and was the runner-up on two other occasions. Cole leads all pitchers in bWAR by a lot and all AL pitchers in bWAR by slightly more. Both the fancy stats (bWAR) and traditional stats (innings and ERA) tell us Cole is the Cy Young front runner.

Cole has two starts remaining: one against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium and one against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Toronto is fighting for their postseason lives, plus facing the same team twice in quick succession isn’t great. Then again, the Blue Jays are plenty familiar with Cole already, and he’s smart enough to make the necessary adjustments between starts.

I have a hard time believing the Yankees will use off-days (today and next Monday) to rearrange their rotation and squeeze in one more Cole start. Are they really going to do that to their $324M ace? Send him out there in a meaningless Game 162 in Kansas City? I mean, it’s possible, sure, but it seems so unlikely. I think those two Blue Jays starts are all Cole has left.

Toronto will be desperate, so those last two starts won’t be a cakewalk. At this point though, Cole is in excellent position to win his first Cy Young, so much so that even two bad starts against the Blue Jays may not cost him. Still, I’d rather he not push his luck. Two more decent (not even great) starts and the Cy Young is Cole’s. No need to sweat what anyone else around the league is doing as long as Cole takes care of business against Toronto.

Cabrera’s strong finish

Signs of life from Oswaldo Cabrera as the season winds down. Everyone’s favorite utility man (at least when he’s hitting) went 7-for-20 (.350) with five walks and only two strikeouts on the road trip, and he started all six games too. Saturday night’s homer (video) was his first since June 3rd and his first as a left-handed batter since May 14th.

Oswaldo’s little hot streak goes back further than the start of the road trip – he is 14-for-49 (.286) with two doubles, one homer, nine walks, and 10 strikeouts in his 15 starts – and he said a talk with Triple-A Scranton hitting coach Trevor Amicone helped him. He also hinted at rolling back some adjustments (maybe these?) that weren’t working for him.

“The things that I’ve been changing was to get better, but that doesn’t work for me,” Cabrera told Randy Miller over the weekend. “So for that reason, it’s just try to get back to who I am, who I was in the past. And for that reason, when I come in here, I work with more confidence. That’s what I’m working on, that Oswaldo-type game, that energy all the time.”

Cabrera’s hot streak is the result of doing more damage against fastballs. Earlier this year, when he was the starting left fielder, Cabrera did nothing against fastballs. Here’s a graph:

If you can’t hit a fastball, you’re not going to last long in this league, and Cabrera had a sub-.300 xwOBA against fastballs in April, May, and June. That’s ghastly. He has been better the last few weeks and is closer to a .400 xwOBA against heaters now. That’s much, much better. Cabrera is making better contact against fastballs and the production has begun to arrive.

“I feel like this is the best week offensively I’ve seen from him all year long,” Aaron Boone told Miller over the weekend. “He’s putting the fastball in play with authority. He’s getting to that pitch. He’s not fouling it off. I feel like his at-bats right now are a peek into why we do really like him, especially with all his defensive versatility."

(Expected stats like xwOBA are good directionally and tell us who is hitting the ball well. They are too often misused to say things like "this guy should have a .295 batting average instead of his actual .270 batting average." They're a good measure of contact quality. That's really it.)

In addition to performing better against fastballs, Cabrera’s at-bats have been better in general. He’s not chasing out of the zone all that much, and, when he does, he’s fouling pitches away rather than swinging through them. It’s only six games, but geez, five walks and two strikeouts? It’s hard to fluke into that. Cabrera looks better than he has all year right now.

Everson Pereira slipped down the steps during one of those rainy days in Boston and tweaked his leg, so he’s been out of the lineup the last few games. That opened the door for Cabrera to get more at-bats, and he’s played well enough that the Yankees should keep him in the lineup. He’s versatile enough to get him in the lineup without outright benching another player. He can move around each day as necessary to make it work.

We’re seeing signs of life now and it wouldn’t be a bad idea for Cabrera to play winter ball. He’s at 328 plate appearances between MLB and Triple-A, which ain’t much, and winter ball would give him a chance to keep playing and continue building on this strong finish. Either way, I’m glad Cabrera’s doing well, even if it is too late to make a difference. He’s a good and useful player when right.

“I know all year he was battling, getting sent down, coming back up and not really getting a lot of playing time,” Aaron Judge told Miller. “To be able to come in here a couple of days in a row and have some great consistent at-bats, that’s what we’re looking for. He’s a switch-hitting utility guy that can play everywhere. He can play shortstop. He can play outfield for you. He’s going to be a big, big key for us for the next couple years.”

(When you’re out of the race, might as well experiment, and Cabrera batted left-handed against lefty Ryan Borucki in Sunday’s game. He struck out. After the game Cabrera told Greg Joyce it’s the first time he’s hit left-on-left in his career, though he’s been toying with it during batting practice. He did it because he feels more comfortable hitting left-handed right now. He’s not thinking about dropping switch-hitting though.)

On running through second base

Friday night the Yankees made a spirited comeback and scored four runs in the top of the ninth to turn a 5-3 deficit into a 7-5 win. The crucial play was second baseman Ji-Hwan Bae’s throwing error on Anthony Volpe’s would-be game-ending 6-4-3 double play. First baseman Alfonso Rivas couldn’t make the scoop, two runs scored, and the inning continued. Here’s the video.

Bae’s poor throw was maybe, possibly, but not definitely influenced by Estevan Florial, who ran through second base on the play. He didn’t slide. He went in standing up and ran right through the bag, as if he was trying to beat out an infield single at first base. Look:

We don’t know whether Florial going in standing up contributed to Bae’s error but we do know it was intentional. Cabrera did the same thing Thursday night in Boston (video) and that may have contributed to an error as well. I saw someone with the Dodgers do this weeks ago. I forget who it was and I’ll never find the video, but it happened. This is a new thing around the league.

“That’s not the play we want to do that on, with two outs,” Boone told Crouse. “It was actually a mistake, because if (Florial) makes contact with him there, they can call it a double play. So I think we got a little bit fortunate there.”

I think Boone is being a bit deceptive and trying not to hip the league to a new strategy – when exactly are you supposed to run through second base if not on a potential game-inning double play? – though he does confirm that yes, Florial (and Cabrera) running through second base was intentional. It’s a set play and it may have contributed to two errors in recent games, so I guess it’s working?

There are two reasons to run through second base on force plays. One, it’s disruptive. The fielder at second base is not used to the runner coming in standing up, especially not with the relatively new anti-takeout slide rules. The fielder is used to having a nice clear lane to the bag and now suddenly there’s a big body barreling toward him. It can force mistakes.

And two, the runner could actually be safe! The Florial play wasn’t close, but on a bang-bang play, sure, it’s possible the runner could beat the fielder to the base. The whole “is it faster to run through the base or slide?” debate isn’t a debate. It’s faster to run through the base. The instant you begin to go into a slide, you start slowing down. It’s not an opinion. It’s science.

Eventually the league will catch on and fielders will adjust, and maybe that means they’ll wait and tag the runner after he runs through second, and make him look silly. When that happens, the Yankees will move on to whatever’s next. Running through second is a definite thing now though, and it may have forced errors that led directly to runs Thursday and Friday. Neat.

(It’s fair to ask why are the Yankees breaking this out now, in meaningless games at the end of a lost season rather than saving it for next year, though I don’t think it’s that simple. Other teams are doing it. It’s going to catch on whether the Yankees do it or not.)

The winning season streak

The Yankees have won 14 of their last 20 games and, at 76-74, they only need to go 6-6 in their final 12 games to extend the winning season streak to 31 seasons. It’s not a given – the Yankees won’t get to face Red Sox and Pirates pitching again – but it certainly looks more doable now than it did even a week ago. Six wins in 12 games. They can manage that, right?

As for the postseason, the Yankees have not been officially eliminated yet. Their tragic number is seven, so any combination of Yankees losses and wins by the third Wild Card team (whoever it is on a given day) totaling seven will send the Yankees home. Let’s say it’ll take 87 wins to get the third Wild Card spot. It'll likely take more, but humor me. The path to 87 wins looks like this:

• Sept. 19-21: 3-0 vs. Blue Jays
• Sept. 22-24: 3-0 vs. Diamondbacks
• Sept. 26-28: 2-1 at Blue Jays
• Sept. 29 to Oct. 1: 3-0 at Royals

For all intents and purposes the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers, and Yankees are competing for two Wild Card spots (that’s not even factoring in the Astros or Red Sox). The Yankees need to do all the above to get to 87 wins and they also need at least two of: Blue Jays go no better than 3-9, Mariners go no better than 5-8, Rangers to go no better than 4-9. It’s a lot.

The Yankees have some control over the Blue Jays thanks to those two head-to-head series. The Mariners and Rangers still have seven head-to-head games (!) remaining too. For the Yankees, the best thing is one of those teams (preferably the Rangers since they're a game up on Seattle) going 6-1 or 7-0 in those seven games. That would bury the other team and give the Yankees a better chance to pass them, and pave the way for these final Wild Card standings:

1. Orioles or Rays (whichever one doesn’t win the AL East)
2. Mariners or Rangers (whichever one goes 6-1 or 7-0 in their head-to-head games)
3. Yankees!
4. Mariners or Rangers (whichever one goes 1-6 or 0-7 in their head-to-head games)
5. Blue Jays (after the Yankees take care of business in their head-to-head games)

Mathematically possible but an extreme long shot. The Yankees probably shouldn’t have gone 20-33 in July and August, huh? The postseason won’t happen but the Yankees can still extend the winning season streak. It’s a cool thing I enjoy and appreciate, and I’ll be rooting for it these last two weeks. That and making life miserable for Toronto (and the D'Backs too, I don't think any of us have forgotten about 2001).

Miscellany

Scary moment for Anthony Misiewicz on Friday. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a ball hit a pitcher in the head and ricochet all the way to the outfield. Misiewicz was released from the hospital later that night and is on the concussion injured list. Seems like he’s doing okay, all things considered. He was in good spirits as he was carted off the field. “He kinda dropped, ‘I thought I threw a pretty good curveball there.’ Hearing him joke at least helped reassure us he was going to be alright,” Judge told Joyce … Jhony Brito continues to look terrific out of the bullpen. Nine up, nine down, three strikeouts Saturday night. Look how well he located his fastball:

Everything on the edges or out of the zone, nothing in the middle of the plate. Brito has a 1.24 ERA (2.33 ERA) with 22.2% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 29 innings as a reliever after throwing 52.2 innings with a 6.32 ERA (6.34 FIP) and worse strikeout (16.4%) and walk (9.1%) rates as a starter. It’s worth giving Brito another chance to start next season, but he has looked really good out of the bullpen. Some guys are just made to be relievers … Welcome back, Ian Hamilton. He retired all three batters he faced Saturday night after missing a little more than two weeks with a groin injury. Boone said he doesn’t expect to use Hamilton for multiple innings at this point, but it’s still good to have him back. No one wants to finish the year hurt … Three runs in four innings is about as good as you could hope for from Luke Weaver. He did what the Yankees brought him in to do. Randy Vásquez coming out of the bullpen Sunday suggests Weaver will make another start this week. I’d rather the Yankees start Vásquez, but with 12 games remaining, does it really make much of a difference? … And finally, the Yankees threw their second perfect game of the season this weekend. Four Yankees pitchers – Brito, Hamilton, Clay Holmes, and Carlos Rodón in that order – combined to retire 27 consecutive batters spanning Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. I wish there was a database of “hidden” perfect games somewhere, because there are a handful around the league every year. The Yankees had one this weekend. Neat.

2. Montas rehabs and a quick minor league update. The minor league seasons are winding down and there are a few recent happenings I want to touch on quickly. Let’s get to ‘em now.

Triple-A Scranton

The RailRiders were eliminated from postseason contention a few days ago and all they have left is six games in Syracuse this week. RHP Mitch Spence has 150 strikeouts and is five short of LHP Matt Krook’s single-season record for the Scranton franchise. He could get there during his final start later this week. Spence has had a fine season relative to the rest of the league.

In other RailRiders news, Frankie Montas joined Scranton over the weekend and started a rehab assignment. He allowed a run on a walk and a double, and struck out two in one inning Sunday. Montas got up to 96.1 mph. That’s really good velocity for a guy who is coming off shoulder surgery and is still fairly early in his rehab work.

I know it’s easy to say “what’s the point?” with the season almost over and where the Yankees are in the standings, but Montas is a player under contract, and he is rehabbing from a major injury. The Yankees have an obligation to take care of him. You can’t just leave a player hanging because he got hurt, your season is essentially over, and you made a bad trade.

Will Montas pitch for the Yankees at some point in these next two weeks? Beats me. I guess it depends how his rehab goes. Two years ago the Mets brought Noah Syndergaard back from Tommy John surgery for two one-inning appearances in late September, essentially so he could showcase himself in advance of free agency. Maybe the Yankees will do the same with Montas.

“We’re a couple of weeks (left in the season), so we’ll see,” Aaron Boone said when asked whether Montas could join the Yankees at some point (video). “I think (Sunday) is a big step in getting him back on the mound. I know he’s been working really hard down there.”

Maybe Montas comes back, maybe he doesn’t. It doesn’t really matter at this point. Neither does Triple-A Scranton being eliminated from postseason contention. They will play six meaningless games in Syracuse this week and that’ll be a wrap on the 2023 Triple-A season.

Double-A Somerset

At 84-53 (.613), the Patriots finished with the best record in Double-A, and it wasn’t particularly close either. Pensacola (Marlins) in the Southern League had the second best Double-A record at 79-57 (.581). Somerset scored the most runs (749) and allowed the fewest runs (538) in the Eastern League, and yeah, that’s how you put up the best record.

The Patriots begin the best-of-three Division Series with Binghamton (Mets) on Tuesday night. The winner will take on either Erie (Tigers) or Richmond (Giants) in the best-of-three Eastern League Championship Series next week. Somerset is looking to repeat as league champs. Surely you remember their 15-0 no-hitter in the clincher last season.

High-A Hudson Valley

The Renegades are two wins away from their first ever South Atlantic League title. Of course, they’re down 1-0 in the best-of-three Championship Series, so their backs are up against the wall, but they are technically two wins away from their first Sally League championship. (Hudson Valley was in the NY-Penn League until the minor leagues were restructured in 2021.)

This is not the first time Hudson Valley has been down 1-0 in a best-of-three series this season. They rallied to beat Jersey Shore (Phillies) in the best-of-three Division Series this past weekend after dropping Game 1. Breakout LHP Brock Selvidge was excellent in the decisive Game 3 win: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video) on only 85 pitches. This late in the minor league season, when everyone is up against their workload limit and on a pitch count, throwing 6.2 innings might as well be a complete game. Great start by Selvidge.

The South Atlantic League Championship Series resumes Tuesday night. I think RHP Yorlin Calderon, who made two starts with the Renegades after spending most of the season in Low-A, will be on the mound in Game 2. It’s win or go home time for Hudson Valley. They’ve already rallied from down 1-0 in a best-of-three this postseason. Might as well do it again.

Low-A Tampa and FCL Yankees

The Tarpons did not make the postseason and their season ended Sept. 10th. Not much to see there. The rookie FCL Yankees were swept in the best-of-three FCL Championship Series by the FCL Braves, so no back-to-back titles for them. That FCL Yankees team was stacked though. On that note, let’s get to the next section.

3. Mining the news. I’ve got a few Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent nuggets I want to touch on, like Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reporting the Yankees had interest in Tommy Pham at the trade deadline. That’s old news, right? I feel like we heard that at the time. Either way, I don’t think there is much to add to that. Now here are a few things worth hitting.

Top FCL prospects

The Baseball America crew has begun their annual look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league and last week they posted their Florida Complex League list (subs. req’d). We’ve talked about the FCL Yankees a bit lately because the team has gotten rave reviews, with some calling it the most stacked rookie ball team in years. That’s nice to hear.

As a result, the Yankees landed five prospects on the FCL top 20 list, including two of the top four, three of the top seven, and four of the top 10. The No. 1 FCL prospect is Twins OF Walker Jenkins. He was the No. 5 overall pick in this summer’s draft. The No. 2 FCL prospect is SS Roderick Arias. The scouting report is, uh, good:

Arias was one of the top players available in the 2022 international signing period but had his pro debut in the DSL muted by a wrist injury. In his first stateside test, the 18-year-old shortstop blew away scouts with a complete package of five tools that could make him a fixture of the Yankees’ lineup in a few seasons. Scouts were universal in their assessment of Arias as a player who could stick at shortstop and produce impact power to all sectors. He has an innate feel for the barrel, a throwing arm that grades as at least double-plus and the athleticism for at least above-average speed. Before a broken pinkie ended his season, Arias was far and away the best player on a Yankees squad that scouts unanimously pegged as one of the most talented in the league in recent memory.

Arias, who turned only 19 last week, hit .267/.423/.505 (143 wRC+) with six home runs (including one off Alek Manoah) and nearly as many walks (20.8%) as strikeouts (22.3%) in 27 games prior to the season-ending finger injury. He also stole 17 bases. Injuries have limited Rod-A to only 58 games the last two years, which isn’t great, but boy, read that report. The kid is good.

I haven’t thought about it much yet but I think you can make the case Arias is the No. 2 prospect in the farm system behind OF Jasson Domínguez, who will still be prospect-eligible next spring. OF Spencer Jones had a good but not truly great year, and he has contact rate concerns, and all the pitchers (RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Drew Thorpe, etc.) come with inherent injury risk. Yeah, Arias might be the No. 2 prospect in the system. Hmmm.

Anyway, the Yankees had four other players on the FCL top 20 list. It’s behind the paywall and I don’t want to give it all away, so here are their rankings and a brief snippet:

No. 4: LHP Henry Lalane: “All summer long, he impressed scouts with his combination of pitchability, stuff, athleticism and demeanor on the mound.” Josh Norris, who put together the FCL list, added he’s made more calls about Lalane since the list was published and the reviews are “glowing.” He also said Lalane has a chance to emerge as one of the sport’s best pitching prospects next year.

No. 7: RHP Carlos Lagrange: “(He) fits nicely into the Yankees’ archetype of powerful, intimidating righthanders with big fastballs … even if he winds up in the bullpen he has the stuff to be a force in the late innings.”

No. 10: IF Keiner Delgado: “Scouts raved about Delgado’s combination of production and makeup, which should carry him to plenty of at-bats in the big leagues. He’s got outstanding bat-to-ball skills”

No. 16: OF John Cruz: “Scouts believe he will show hittability and power and has an outside chance to play center field. If he moves over, his average speed and arm strength will be just fine in either corner.”

Not too long ago I wrote about Lalane and was asked a mailbag question about Cruz, so those are there as well. Delgado was one of my Not Top 30 Prospects this spring. He hit .293/.414/.485 (138 wRC+) with more walks (15.1%) than strikeouts (13.0%) in 49 FCL games this season. Delgado, who is still only 19, has 94 walks and 59 strikeouts in 102 career games. Sheesh.

Norris said it’s likely a few more Yankees would have made a slightly longer FCL list. I would assume sleeper IF Enmanuel Tejeda (.307/.465/.458 and 152 wRC+ with as many walks as strikeouts) and RHP Jordarlin Mendoza (30.2% strikeout rate) were near misses. Tejeda really popped this year and Mendoza has been interesting for a while now.

(UPDATE: I see now that, in the chat (subs. req’d), Norris said Tejeda was the closest Yankee to making the list without actually making it. So there you go.)

SS George Lombard Jr., this year’s first round pick, was not included in the FCL top 20 because he wasn’t eligible. They set the minimums at 50 at-bats and 15 innings, and Lombard got only 12 at-bats in the FCL before joining Low-A Tampa. RHP Luis Serna, my No. 12 prospect entering the season, was eligible though. He hurt his shoulder and his prospect stock took a tumble. Sucks.

I’m not planning to go through every relevant top 20, but the FCL team has gotten a lot of buzz lately, and I figured they were worth highlighting. It’s so easy to dream on rookie ball kids. They’re all so exciting. At the same time, getting from the backfields in Tampa to the Bronx is a long journey. Hopefully one or two (or three!) of these guys work out. That’d be a great hit rate.

Angels open to trading Trout

Buried in a recent notes column that leads with Christian Walker, Bob Nightengale reports the Angels are open to trading Mike Trout, assuming he wants out. Here is the blurb:

The Los Angeles Angels, perhaps for the first time, are open to trading All-Star outfielder Mike Trout if he indicates to them that he wants out. Trout has exclusive no-trade rights and said recently that he wants to have a private conversation with the front office and ownership about their direction.

The Angels have a chance to finish with their worst record in a 162-game season of the Trout era this year, and the long-term outlook is bleak. Shohei Ohtani is leaving, they’re short on talent at the MLB level, the farm system wasn’t good to begin with, and they further gutted it to get Lucas Giolito and others at the deadline. Then they put all those guys on waivers a month later to dump salary. Awful.

Trout turned 32 last month and the Angels have been to the postseason only once in his 12 full seasons. That was a three-game sweep by the Royals in the 2014 ALDS. The Angels have not won a postseason game since beating the Yankees in Game 5 of the 2009 ALCS, and somehow they failed to have a winning season during the Ohtani era. So bad it’s impressive, really.

As good as he is, Trout has only so many prime years remaining, and thus only so much time to be a core member of a World Series contender. The Angels aren’t contending anytime soon. If Trout wants to win, a trade is the best thing for him. Some relevant facts:

• In a down year, Trout hit .263/.367/.490 (133 wRC+) with 18 homers in 82 games in 2023.
• Injuries have limited Trout to 678 of 1,020 regular season games since 2017, or 66%.
• He’s owed $35.45M annually through 2030. That’s seven years and $248.15M total.
• Trout’s a South Jersey guy and (I think) he still lives there in the offseason.

Give Trout a truth serum and I think he’d tell you the Phillies are his top destination. They went to the World Series last year and they’re going to the postseason again this year, and they figure to remain a contender for at least another few seasons. Trout’s a local guy – all winter long we see clips of him at Eagles games – so he’d get to come home and join a contender.

The Yankees aren’t a contender this year, but they’re still the Yankees, and let’s be real, you don’t have to try too hard to see them making the postseason next year. As bad as they’ve been this year, they still might have a winning record. Bad for the Yankees is different than bad for other teams. Trout wouldn’t have to be the guy – that’s Aaron Judge – and he would be about as close to home as the sport will let him (other than the Phillies). You can see the appeal.

For the Yankees though, boy, is Trout really what they need? He’s amazing, don’t get me wrong, but he’s into his 30s now, he sadly misses a chunk of time every year, and he’s still got a lot of years and a lot of dollars coming to him. If these were, say, the 2017-22 Yankees, who needed that one last piece to get over the hump, absolutely. But the 2024 and beyond Yankees? Ehhh.

In theory, the Yankees could send Giancarlo Stanton and the four years and $98M remaining on his contract the other way to offset money. In reality, why in the world would Stanton okay a trade to the Angels? The only thing I can think of is the Angels would have to agree to release him right away, allowing Giancarlo pick his own team. (Adrián González did this with the Braves.)

Similar to Stanton with the Marlins, the money and no-trade clause means the Angels have little leverage, and won’t get much for their franchise player. Generally speaking, the Yankees should be all over star players in situations like that. Right now though? Eh, Trout’s not really what they need. They need youth, not another big name who’s already had his best years, you know? Trout is the right player at the wrong time.

Imanaga to be posted this offseason

The Yokohama DeNA BayStars will post lefty Shōta Imanaga this offseason, reports Jon Morosi. The just turned 30-year-old is not at the level of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or even Kodai Senga last offseason, though he has been one of the top starters in Japan for several years. In a weak free agent class, Imanaga will be another option for teams that seek pitching (i.e. all of them).

The 5-foot-10 Imanaga started the World Baseball Classic Championship Game this spring because both Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki pitched the previous day, and because Japan wanted to use Ohtani and Yu Darvish out of the bullpen in the clincher. He allowed a Trea Turner solo homer in two innings while on a pitch limit, and allowed two runs in six WBC innings overall.

For what it’s worth, Imanaga led all WBC pitchers in Stuff+, which is a useful but incomplete metric that grades pitches on physical characteristics (velocity, spin, etc.). It doesn’t take into account location, sequencing, etc. Imanaga’s 90-94 mph fastball is said to be a standout pitch with elite carry up in the zone. He also has a slider, changeup, and curveball. Here’s video.

Imanaga is having arguably his best season this year, throwing 147 innings with a 2.57 ERA and excellent strikeout (30.3%) and walk (3.4%) rates. From 2021-22, Imanaga pitched to a 2.43 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He picked a good year to post the best strikeout and walk numbers of his career. Right before MLB teams come calling.

As for the Yankees, they have steered clear of Japanese players whose age starts with a 3 the last decade or so. Their only two serious pursuits since the Kei Igawa disaster are Ohtani and Masahiro Tanaka, who came over at 23 and 25, respectively. I’m mentioning Imanaga because he’ll be available. I would assume he’s on the back-burner and Yamamoto is the top priority.

“There’s no comparison (between Imanaga and Yamamoto),” someone with the Yankees told Bob Klapisch. “(Yamamoto) is the one we’re taking a harder look at. He’s at another level.”

(Yakyu Cosmopolitan has the obligatory “the Yankees have scouted Imanaga” report.)

Rays set to announce stadium deal

According to Marc Topkin, the Rays are expected to announce a deal for a new stadium in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. The 30,000-seat ballpark will have a fixed dome and artificial turf, and will be located near Tropicana Field. I assume they're planning for a ballpark village like they have in Atlanta and St. Louis. The Rays are expected to foot about half the $1.2 billion price tag.

The Rays have been trying to secure a new stadium for nearly two decades now. They looked in and around downtown Tampa, they floated that ridiculous two-city Montreal/Tampa plan, and they made veiled relocation threats. In the end, they’re going to wind up not far from where they are now. Their lease at the Trop runs through 2027. The new stadium would open in 2028.

For the entirety of their history the Rays have blamed their poor attendance (fourth lowest in baseball this year) on location because it’ll take you a good 40 minutes to get from downtown Tampa to the Trop in rush hour traffic, yet the new stadium will be in same place. The Rays were always going to whichever city offered the most taxpayer money. It is the way of the world.

There will be a new stadium in the AL East in a few years and, now that the Rays and Athletics have new stadiums in the works, MLB can begin to seriously consider expansion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said he won’t consider expansion until the A’s and Rays have new ballparks, which makes sense. Take care of the teams already in the league before adding more.

The Seattle Kraken paid a $650M expansion fee to join the NHL in 2021. I love the NHL, hockey is my second favorite sport, but NHL franchise valuations are nowhere close to MLB’s. MLB could command an expansion fee north of $1 billion, maybe even $2 billion, and remember, two teams would join the league simultaneously. That’s an enormous cash influx for the owners.

There are groups trying to lure an expansion franchise to Nashville, Portland, Salt Lake City, and even Oakland. Whenever expansion happens, MLB would presumably go to four four-team divisions per league. I don’t think they would abandon the American League and National League, they’re too ingrained in the sport’s history, though East and West conferences may make more sense with 32 teams. Depends where the expansion teams land, I guess.

Given the 10-figure expansion fees (plural), I could see MLB wanting to get the ball rolling soon. The MLBPA will be all for it too. Two new teams equals a lot more jobs, both at the big league and minor league levels. It’s fair to wonder whether there’s enough pitching to go around – the 30 teams barely have enough arms as it is – though that’s a problem for another time.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2026 season. The next CBA could include all the particulars about the expansion draft and whatnot. In the interim, MLB could begin the process of soliciting expansion bids, reviewing proposals, all that good stuff. I’m not saying this will all happen right now. I’m just saying MLB is closer to expansion now than it has been in a long time thanks to the A’s and Rays moving toward new stadiums.

(I should note the Rays’ new stadium deal is not done done. They’ve only cleared the first hurdle, though reaching an agreement on public funding is a pretty big hurdle. Now the Rays have to get a handle on their end of the money, as well as finalize plans for the ballpark, and get all the necessary approvals from MLB. It’ll all happen eventually.)

(Self-promotion: Here’s my post on the role the Yankees played in the 1992 expansion draft. I’ve also been sitting on a mailbag question about who I’d protect in an expansion draft the last few weeks. I’m planning to get to that once the season ends. Also, I wrote a thing at CBS in Jan. 2020 detailing how 2028 could be the year MLB undergoes a facelift. It’s a bit outdated now, but that’s there if you’re interested.)

On bat speed

Hawk-Eye, the system that powers Statcast, records bat speed among countless other things, though the data is not publicly available yet. It exists, MLB just won’t let us see it yet. J.J. Cooper, however, got his hands on the data. Here is the top of the 2023 average bat speed leaderboard (min. 70 plate appearances). You will notice a trend:

1. Giancarlo Stanton: 77.2 mph
2. Franchy Cordero: 74.5 mph
3. Mike Trout: 73.8 mph
4. Joey Gallo: 73.7 mph
5. Elly De La Cruz: 73.7 mph
6. Ronald Acuña Jr.: 73.6 mph
7. Aaron Judge: 73.5 mph

Jake Bauers (72.9 mph) is No. 11 on that list, just ahead of Ohtani (72.8 mph). Think maybe the Yankees use bat speed in their player evaluations? The bottom of the bat speed leaderboard is mostly slap hitters like Nicky Lopez (61.2 mph) and Hanser Alberto (62.3 mph), but also Luis Arraez (60.5 mph). Josh Donaldson has the ninth lowest average bat speed at 62.5 mph.

There are good and bad hitters on both ends of the bat speed spectrum, but power hitters are at the top of the leaderboard. Cooper ran the correlations and average bat speed correlates best to max exit velocity, which correlates to power. You need bat speed to hit for power consistently. That seems obvious enough, but now we have the data to verify it. Batting average and strikeouts, meanwhile, have very little correlation to average bat speed. Huh.

Cooper does not provide the MLB average bat speed and my back of the envelope math using his data puts it around 68.0 mph. Here are the rest of the notable Yankees and their average bat speed this season (I wish we had multiple years of this stuff so we could see how it changes over time):

• Kyle Higashioka: 69.2 mph
• Oswaldo Cabrera: 68.5 mph
• Gleyber Torres: 68.4 mph
• Oswald Peraza: 67.8 mph
• Anthony Volpe: 67.1 mph
• Anthony Rizzo: 66.1 mph
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 65.6 mph
• Jose Trevino: 65.0 mph
• DJ LeMahieu: 64.9 mph

This information is very new and we’re still trying to figure out what it all means. In the early days of spin rate, we all thought high spin on a fastball is good, and it is, but we learned high spin plays better at the top of the zone. Do different bat speeds work better with certain swing planes? I would have to believe so. How much does average bat speed tell us, really?

Eventually bat speed data will be made public and folks smarter than me will dig into it. For now, Cooper provided a glimpse at the data, and given the fact three Yankees and one former Yankee are among the top seven in average bat speed leads me to believe they value it heavily in their player evaluations. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Well, the offense this year suggests it’s not a good thing, but that’s overly simplistic. Anyway, bat speed data. There you go.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)