September 4th, 2023: Domínguez, Wells, Judge, Arizona Fall League, Torres

Michael Kay’s “Yankee Yutes” nickname is cheesy, but I kinda love it.

What a wonderful and cathartic weekend. The Yankees stopped pretending they’re a good week away from getting back in the race, dumped some dead weight and called up the kids, then went on the road and swept the defending World Series champs, the same team that has tormented them most of the last decade. This is the most fun the Yankees have been all year (in years?) and it’s not even close. Here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday morning since the Yankees have a well-earned off-day (no Yankees on Labor Day is weird though).

1. Weekend thoughts. Hey alright, another series win. I guess the Yankees can only beat bad teams like the Athletics, Royals, Tigers, and Astros. The Yankees swept the Astros for the first time since the final series in 2013, when Houston was still in their hard tanking era. That was the series Andy Pettitte threw a complete game in his final career start. When I said I wanted the Yankees to play spoiler this month, this is exactly what I had in mind. The sweep was a major blow to an Astros team that is battling for the AL West title and is not a lock to have a Wild Card spot as a fallback plan. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

El Marciano debuts

The Yankees finally addressed their lack of players named after Jason Giambi. As expected, the Yankees summoned top prospect Jasson Domínguez over the weekend, and the beginning of his MLB career was storybook. El Marciano – The Martian – took Justin Verlander deep in his first at-bat. On his first swing as a big leaguer, no less. I’ve watched the video approximately 5,000 times since Friday. I may watch another 5,000 times Monday.

“I knew it was going to be a lot of different feelings, finally stepping on the field and my dream coming true right in front of me,” Domínguez, who had his parents and family in attendance in Houston, told Bryan Hoch after the game. “I was able to connect there for that hit and it ended up being a homer. It’s probably the best game that I’ve been part of in my career.”

Verlander made a mistake – he left a 94 mph heater in the middle of the plate – and Domínguez muscled it the other way and into the Crawford Boxes. It felt like an exorcism. Verlander has so thoroughly dominated the Yankees over the years and then here comes El Marciano, crashing down from outer space like Thor arriving in Wakanda, to save the Yankees.

“We were jumping up and down like little kids when Domínguez hit that two-run homer. We just felt a different energy on the bus coming to the field today. Just a little bit of excitement, a little bit of jitters,” Aaron Judge told Greg Joyce. Here are a few nuggets:

• At 20 years and 206 days, Domínguez is the youngest Yankee ever to homer in his first MLB game, and he’s the fifth youngest Yankee to go deep period. The four younger: Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Ross Moschitto, and Bobby Murcer.
• Verlander is obviously going to the Hall of Fame and Domínguez is the seventh player in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to hit a home run against a Hall of Famer in his first MLB at-bat. (MLB Pipeline didn’t list the other six. Sorry.)
• Domínguez is the sixth Yankee ever to homer in his first MLB at-bat. Really only six, eh? The other five: John Miller (1966), Marcus Thames (2002), Andy Phillips (2004), and of course Tyler Austin and Judge (2016).
• With an assist from Astros security, the Yankees were able to get the ball for Domínguez. Two Yankees fans caught it and he only had to trade a signed ball for it (they asked for one, he gave them two).

“He’s going to remember that for the rest of his life,” Giancarlo Stanton told Hoch. “He just seems comfortable. Nothing seems to faze him. He knows he deserves to be here, and should be here.”

Domínguez one-upped Friday’s blast with what proved to be the game-winning two-run homer against Cristian Javier on Sunday (video). Javier did not throw Domínguez a single fastball in his first two at-bats. It was nothing but sliders and curveballs and changeups, then Jasson made the adjustment, and parked a slider in the right field seats in his third at-bat.

“I knew he wasn’t going to give me any fastballs. The breaking ball, I was going to sit on it,” Domínguez told Hoch after the game. You think this swing will work in Yankee Stadium?

Like Verlander, Javier has dominated the Yankees the last few years – he started the combined no-hitter last season and held them to one hit in 5.1 innings in his ALCS start last year – but those Yankees didn’t have Domínguez. Did he look like an anxious rookie at all this weekend? He came up with an insane amount of hype and yet he looked calm and poised all three games.

“He’s got a chance to be a great player in this league,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “He’s off to a pretty good start. With all these guys, I think we’re going to see bumps and growing pains along the way, but to come in here against a really good team and a great environment and have them handle themselves the way they have is really, really encouraging.”

Domínguez went 3-for-13 (.231) in the series and the contact quality has been fantastic in the tiny sample (93.5 mph average exit velocity, 18.2% barrel rate, 36.4% grounders). We have not yet seen Jasson as a right-handed hitter, his less comfortable side, though that’ll happen no later than Thursday, when the Tigers start Eduardo Rodriguez.

Three games is only three games and we’ll see what happens moving forward, but good gravy, what a three games. Domínguez had the very fun homer in his first at-bat and then the more impactful game-winning homer Sunday. His at-bats were solid throughout I thought, and he caught everything hit his way in center. What a weekend. El Marciano has arrived.

“I think it’s going to be big time,” Domínguez told Hoch about making his Yankee Stadium debut on Tuesday. “I think it’s going to be awesome.”

Wells debuts too

I was half-joking when I said Domínguez and Austin Wells making their big league debuts against Verlander meant we’ll “all be able to reminisce about the time they got their first big league hits in the same game against a future Hall of Famer.” That’s exactly what happened! One inning after Domínguez’s dinger, Wells lined a single to right-center for his first MLB knock (video).

“I had to make sure I looked up,” Wells told Hoch about his first big league hit. “I saw my family and saw them going crazy. That was pretty cool.”

Wells went 2-for-10 over the weekend and man, I thought Sunday’s double (video) was going out, but I guess it had some top spin, s it landed on the warning track. He looked okay behind the plate too, I thought. Wells can be a bit stabby when he frames, but he threw out the only runner who tried to steal, which is not nothing considering he went only 15-for-116 (13%) throwing out runners in the minors this season. The pitchers all praised him too.

"He had a great gameplan going in. He's phenomenal at adjusting and a real great communicator. We had a ton of conversations in between innings. I loved working with him,” Mike King, who was excellent Sunday, told Gary Phillips. "... He's making (Clay Holmes’) sinker not look that good (because he received it so well even though Holmes is difficult to catch), and I'm like, 'What is going on?' But it's just Wells is so good back there that he knew how to handle the staff and called a really good game."

The Yankees currently have three of their own first round picks on the roster: Clarke Schmidt (2017), Anthony Volpe (2019), and Wells (2020). Technically four if you count Gerrit Cole (did not sign in 2008). I have no idea the last time that happened. If you include compensation picks and supplemental first rounders, the answer is the Phil Hughes (2004), Ian Kennedy (2006), Joba Chamberlain (2006 supplemental) years, though in that case Judge (2013 supplemental) counts this year too, and the Yankees have four of their own first rounders on the roster.

Whatever. This isn’t a contest. Point is, the regular lineup now includes two recent first rounders (Volpe and Wells) and two recent seven-figure international signings (Domínguez and Everson Pereira). This is what it’s supposed to look like. Your top picks and big money signings anchoring the lineup. It’s early, these guys are just beginning their careers, but Friday was a proud day for the organization. (Don’t confuse this for me saying everything with the Yankees is a-okay. It’s not. Teams can still celebrate their top prospects reaching the big leagues in a down year.)

The Yankees had five rookies in their lineup Friday night. As for Saturday, I can not believe this was an actual Major League lineup used by the New York Yankees:

1. 1B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Jasson Domínguez (!)
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Anthony Volpe
6. C Austin Wells
7. LF Everson Pereira
8. 2B Oswald Peraza
9. 3B Oswaldo Cabrera

According to Katie Sharp, Saturday was the first time the Yankees had six players in the starting lineup age 24 or younger since Sept. 18th, 1932. The six kids went a combined 6-for-21 (.286) with two doubles and four walks (.400 OBP) that night too. They drove in four of the team's five runs, including Wells’ game-tying sac fly and Pereira’s go-ahead single (video).

“It’s very special. I don’t know a lot of guys who can say they debuted with four or five guys from the minors that they played with,” Wells told Phillips about the youth movement. Volpe added: “I’m so happy for Jasson and Wells and Everson and everybody. I just told them to enjoy it and have as much fun as they can.”

Cole starts Tuesday and Boone said Ben Rortvedt, who has caught every Cole start since Jose Trevino went down, is likely to start behind the plate. With the season being what it is, I think it’s totally fine to give Cole his personal catcher and prioritize the Cy Young chase. He’s your ace and a team leader. The Yankees are out of it and helping Cole get over the Cy Young finish line is okay. I don’t think it’s selfish. Everyone in the organization wants him to take home the hardware, including Wells.

Rortvedt catching Cole means the Yankees have two options with Wells on Tuesday: start him at DH and sit either Judge or Stanton, or sit Wells. Stanton did not play Sunday and I don’t think the Yankees would sit him three straight days (unless he’s banged up and we don’t know about it). I can’t imagine they’ll sit Judge at home. I suppose they could put Wells at first base, but eh. That seems unlikely seeing how he hasn’t worked out there much (if at all).

Wells might sit Tuesday and have to wait until Wednesday to make his Yankee Stadium debut. I guess he could come off the bench to replace Rortvedt once Cole is out of the game (I could see Boone doing that), but I don’t think sitting Tuesday would be the end of the world even though it would be a bit lame. Wells can still sit in on pitcher/catcher meetings and catch the day’s bullpen sessions. A young catcher has plenty to do when he’s not in the lineup.

Regardless of what happens Tuesday, Wells will play and play a lot. He caught all three games in Houston and it was only the second time all year he caught three straight days (the Yankees had him on a catch-catch-DH three-day schedule in the minors). Wells started at catcher Aug. 25-27 in Triple-A, which in hindsight was a good indicator the Yankees were preparing to call him up. Wells will play a lot in September. No need to sweat whatever happens Tuesday.

I don’t want to get carried away but between the good lefty bat, pitchers saying they love working with him, and the top tier mustache, Wells gives off serious “he’s gonna catch and bat fifth for the Yankees for the next 10 years” vibes. That would rule. Domínguez got all the attention this weekend and that’s understandable. Wells had a good debut series too. Couple knocks and catching a sweep in Houston in his first MLB series is a real nice feather in his cap.

(Wells told Mark Sanchez that Rortvedt, Trevino, and Kyle Higashioka have helped him prepare for games and whatnot. Shoutout to Higgy for being a team player and helping the young guy who is essentially taking his job.)

Judge reaches 250 homers

It got overshadowed by Domínguez and Wells, but Judge hit his 250th career home run Friday. He is, by far, the fastest to 250 homers. He did it in 810 games. Ryan Howard hit his 250th homer in his 855th game, and Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner is the only other player to get to 250 homers in fewer than 900 games. He did it in 871 games.

“I really don’t think about it. When you see the guys that are on the list, especially Ryan Howard, who was one of the greatest power hitters, it’s pretty cool to be on that list,” Judge told Sanchez about being the fastest to 250 home runs. Stanton added: “Not surprised. It’s just incredible what he’s been able to do. He’ll be the fastest to 300 and 350 and continue on.”

Kiner is the quickest to 300 career homers. He got there in his 1,087th game. Can Judge hit 49 home runs in his next 275 games? Well, he’s hit 105 homers in his last 275 games (lol), and his fewest homers in any 275-game span of his career is 68 (July 14th, 2018 to Sept. 10th, 2021), so I’d say yeah, Judge has a good chance to become the fastest to 300 homers. By a lot too.

Anyway, getting to 250 homers so quickly is impressive, but what’s really cool is No. 251 on Saturday night moved Judge into the franchise’s top 10. Here is the Yankees’ all-time home run leaderboard:

1. Babe Ruth: 659
2. Mickey Mantle: 536
3. Lou Gehrig: 493
4. Joe DiMaggio: 361
5. Yogi Berra: 358
6. Alex Rodriguez: 351
7. Bernie Williams: 287
8. Jorge Posada: 275
9. Derek Jeter: 260
10. Aaron Judge: 251
11. Graig Nettles: 250
12. Don Mattingly: 222

Judge can absolutely catch Jeter this year. He needs to hit nine homers in the team’s final 25 games and we’re talking about a guy who’s hit nine homers in his last 16 games and 11 homers in his last 25 games. As long as he stays reasonably healthy (not a lock, unfortunately), Judge should be in sole possession of seventh place on that leaderboard by the end of next season.

Barring a disaster, Judge could finish as high as fourth on that leaderboard, no? He still has eight years and 25 games remaining on his contract and he needs another 111 home runs to pass DiMaggio. Even factoring in age-related decline and potential injuries, getting those 111 homers is very doable. I don’t think Judge can catch Gehrig, that’s a very tall order given the relatively late start to his MLB career, but Judge has also shown we shouldn’t put a ceiling on him. Top 10 home run hitter in Yankees history, Aaron Judge. Pretty, pretty cool.

(In other home run milestone news, Friday’s dinger was No. 399 for Stanton. He’s a prime “you make the Hall of Fame in your 30s, not your 20s” example. Giancarlo was on a Hall of Fame track earlier in his career and, unless he has a resurgence the next few years, he won’t get into Cooperstown, or even receive serious consideration come voting time. Too bad.)

Miscellany

Peraza had a nice weekend in Houston, going 4-for-12 (.333) with two doubles. It’s starting to turn around for him. Peraza hit a few line drives at people in Detroit and he’s struck out just once in his last 24 plate appearances. It’s coming together … Randy Vásquez, the other prospect the Yankees called up on Sept. 1st, came out of the bullpen Friday and I liked the way the Yankees used him, though I would’ve been in favor of sending him out for a third inning. He threw two innings and was allowed to work out of a jam in his first inning, even with the tying run on deck. Also, Jhony Brito was fantastic Saturday, throwing 3.2 shutout innings. He’s looked so much better coming out of the bullpen than as a starter. Boone didn’t reveal how Brito and Vásquez will be used the rest of the season, but given the ongoing youth movement, I’m sure they’ll get plenty of work regardless of role … DJ LeMahieu is terrific at first base. He’s terrific at second and third too, and he’s been a scoop machine lately. If you can’t have Anthony Rizzo there, LeMahieu is a great guy to have at first base for a young infield … Two runs in five innings in Houston isn’t bad, but Carlos Rodón had to grind and needed 92 pitches to get through those five innings Friday. His fastball whiff rate is way down this season:

It was super elite the last two years. Basically the highest fastball whiff rate in baseball. Now it’s down to about average. Hopefully this is just a product of Rodón’s injury-interrupted season and he’ll regain his 2021-22 bat-missing ability next year, after an offseason of rest. That said, injuries come with the territory with Rodón. Whatever the reason, he isn’t getting nearly as many empty swings on his heater as the last two seasons, and Rodón without an elite fastball whiff rate will have a tough time performing like a frontline starter … Not much to say about Ian Hamilton’s groin injury. It stinks, but the Yankees are out of the postseason race, so who really cares. He missed about six weeks with a similar groin injury earlier this year and hopefully this one isn’t that serious. If anything, the most notable thing about Hamilton’s injury is the Yankees calling up Greg Weissert to replace him, not Ron Marinaccio. Things haven’t gone well for Marinaccio since the demotion: 11.2 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 13 BB, 9 K, 2 HR in Triple-A. Doesn’t seem like he’s a call up consideration at the moment … And finally, the Yankees gave Domínguez No. 89 – “I don’t know,” he told Brendan Kuty when asked why he was given that number – and Wells No. 88. I have to think those are placeholders, which is kinda lame because people want to buy shirts and jerseys now. No. 89 is growing on me a bit. No. 88 isn’t gonna work though. That’s a wacky LOOGY number and wacky LOOGYs aren’t a thing anymore because of the three-batter minimum.

2. Arizona Fall League candidates. At some point soon, likely within the next 10-14 days, the 2023 Arizona Fall League rosters will be announced. Most of them, anyway. There are always a few TBA spots on the initial rosters, typically on the pitching side. Those spots are filled at a later date, once the MLB parent clubs get their ducks in a row.

Yankees prospects will suit up for the Mesa Solar Sox for the second year in a row. MLB teams rotate AzFL affiliations each year, and other teams did, but the Yankees got paired up with Mesa again. Not sure why. Yankees prospects will be teammates with Astros, Athletics, Cubs, and Orioles prospects this year. Here are the important AzFL dates:

• Monday, Oct. 2nd: Opening Day
• Saturday, Oct. 14th: Tripleheader day at Goodyear Ballpark
• Friday, Nov. 3rd: Home Run Derby
• Saturday, Nov. 4th: Fall Stars Game
• Thursday, Nov. 9th: Final day of the regular season
• Friday, Nov. 10th: Play-in game
• Saturday, Nov. 11th: Championship Game

(Tripleheader day is pretty cool. All six teams play in the same ballpark and one ticket gets you into all three games. You get to see the entire league in one day.)

MLB opened up AzFL eligibility a few years ago. Previously the AzFL was limited to Double-A and Triple-A players, with one Single-A player per MLB parent club. There were also limits on service time and international players eligible to play winter ball. Now pretty much anyone can go. The Yankees could technically send Aaron Judge to the AzFL, not that they would.

The AzFL is a developmental league and roster spots are finite. Each MLB team can send a maximum of nine players: four pitchers (one starter and three relievers), three full-time position players (exact positions are negotiated among the clubs), and two taxi squad position players (eligible to play twice a week). Everyone who goes to the AzFL goes for a reason.

Because so many young pitchers are up against their workload limit by the end of the regular season, the AzFL is a very hitter friendly league. The pitching is mostly second and third (and below) tier prospects, or rehabbers coming off an injury. Last year the AzFL average was a .256/.361/.410 batting line and 5.49 ERA. I’d say that qualifies as hitter friendly.

One thing I’ve learned over the years is predicting AzFL rosters is basically impossible, and it’s only gotten more difficult since the roster eligibility rules were loosened. Teams send some of the most random minor leaguers to the desert. This is not me predicting who the Yankees will send to the AzFL. This is just a list of possible candidates. Sound good? Let’s dive in.

RHP Brendan Beck

2023 stats: 1.59 ERA (2.88 FIP), 31.0 K%, 5.3 BB% (34 IP in Rk, A+)

Beck, a 2021 second round pick, returned from Tommy John surgery in June and has pitched very well. The Yankees have him on a strict pitch limit – Beck hasn’t thrown more than 64 pitches in any of his 10 outings – which is standard so soon after elbow reconstruction. For Beck, going to the AzFL would be about getting more innings. Pretty straightforward.

One small problem: Beck was placed on High-A Hudson Valley’s 7-day injured list last Monday. I don’t know what’s wrong with him, but obviously he won’t go to the AzFL if he’s not healthy. Hopefully the injury is minor, whatever it is, and Beck can return soon and continue pitching, even if it’s only with the Renegades the rest of the regular season and not in the AzFL.

RHP Harrison Cohen

2023 stats: 3.72 ERA (4.03 FIP), 31.0 K%, 10.5 BB% (46 IP in A-, A+)

The Yankees signed Cohen, a local kid from New Hyde Park, as an undrafted free agent last August. He was a starter at George Washington and in the Cape Cod League, but the Yankees stuck him in the bullpen this year, and now he’s up to 95 mph with interesting enough secondary pitches (slider and changeup). Cohen had a six-run outing recently that uglified his season line, but he has fans in the organization, and random relievers like him always seem to make their way to the AzFL. Cohen is a max effort guy who looks like a potential up-and-down arm.

OF Jasson Domínguez

2023 stats: .265/.377/.425 (121 wRC+), 15 HR, 40 SB, 15.3 BB%, 24.4 K% (544 PA in AA, AAA)

Before this past weekend, I would’ve said Domínguez was a good candidate to go to the AzFL, but no longer. The Yankees are not calling him up to the big leagues for a month and then saying okay, nice work Jasson, now go to what amounts to minor league finishing school. Domínguez performed exceptionally well in July and August and earned his call up. Once the regular season ends, he’ll head home. He’s no longer an AzFL candidate.

RHP Luis Gil

2023 stats: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K (rehab game)

Rehabbing big leaguers, which Gil is considered because he’s spent the entire season on the MLB 60-day injured list, can play in the AzFL. The best example is Kyle Schwarber. He tore his ACL in April 2016, played a few rehab games in the AzFL, then rejoined the Cubs for the World Series. The only catch is the player has to be activated. Gil would have to come off the 60-day injured list to pitch in the AzFL, which is no big deal. The Yankees have 40-man roster flexibility.

Gil started a minor league rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa over the weekend and topped out at 98.5 mph, so the arm strength is there. Before this rehab assignment, I thought Gil was a great AzFL candidate. He was going to need innings at some point – players want to test their arm in game action after Tommy John surgery, not go into the offseason uncertain – and I wasn’t sure he’d go out on rehab before the end of the season. Now that he’s pitching in rehab games, an AzFL stint isn’t really necessary, though it is still possible.

LHP Geoffrey Gilbert

2023 stats: 3.09 ERA (3.29 FIP), 29.2 K%, 13.3 BB% (46.2 IP in A-)

Every year there are a few “wait, him? really?” AzFL pitching assignments and I’m taking shots in the dark with Cohen and Gilbert, trying to find one (or two) of those guys. Gilbert, last year’s 13th round pick, has added velocity this season, which means he’s sitting 91-92 mph rather than 87-88 mph like last year. He has a good slider and looks like what the second lefty specialist in a typical bullpen looked like back when lefty specialists were still a thing.

RHP Yoendrys Gómez

2023 stats: 3.47 ERA (3.92 FIP), 27.8 K%, 12.2 BB% (57 IP in AA)

I feel like I list Gómez as an AzFL candidate every year because he always misses time with injuries and always has to catch up on innings. He’s never actually been to the AzFL though. One of these years I’ll get it right. Maybe this is the year?

Anyway, Gómez missed the first two months this season with shoulder trouble, and he’s been very good since returning (while being on a pitch limit). Those 57 innings are a career high, by the way. His previous career high was 56.1 innings in 2019, so I wasn’t kidding when I said he always has to catch up on innings. An AzFL stint would get Gómez to 90 or so innings in 2023.

OF Anthony Hall

2023 stats: .255/.365/.422 (116 wRC+), 10 HR, 14.0 BB%, 23.7 K% (363 PA in A-, A+)

A pair of wrist surgeries slightly delayed the start of Hall’s season. Last year’s fourth rounder was a very productive player at Oregon and he took care of business with the automated strike zone in Low-A (127 wRC+). Hall was promoted to High-A about a month ago and that’s been more of a challenge (83 wRC+). My No. 25 prospect is a prototypical lefty corner outfield platoon bat. Hall is healthy – he hasn’t had any issues with the wrist since surgery – and breathing, which makes him an AzFL candidate.

OF Spencer Jones

2023 stats: .261/.331/.441 (110 wRC+), 14 HR, 36 SB, 9.3 BB%, 29.3 K% (485 PA in A+, AA)

The Yankees have sent one of their best prospects to the AzFL the last two years (Domínguez in 2022 and Austin Wells in 2021) and Jones is an excellent candidate to be that top prospect this season, mostly because he’s their only non-rookie ball high-end position player prospect left in the minors. Domínguez, Wells, Oswald Peraza, and Everson Pereira are all in the big leagues.

That said, no one goes to the AzFL by default. The Yankees wouldn’t send Jones just because he’s their best prospect still in the minors. Jones would go to the AzFL because, compared to the typical first round college bat, he’s inexperienced (injuries and the pandemic cut into his career at Vanderbilt), but he’s a big guy still working to improve his contact rates.

Jones is having a solid season and he needs more at-bats and more playing time. It’s a long and taxing season – he has nearly as many plate appearances in 2023 as 2021-22 combined – and as long as he’s up for it physically, Jones could benefit from an AzFL stint. Players have to play to get better and the AzFL is a chance for Jones to continue playing.

C Agustin Ramirez

2023 stats: .281/.374/.471 (129 wRC+), 18 HR, 12.6 BB%, 17.0 K% (460 PA at A-, A+, AA)

The Yankees have aggressively moved Ramirez, this year’s breakout catching prospect, up the ladder this season. Roster crunches and the pandemic kept him in rookie ball from 2019-22, then this year the Yankees moved Ramirez from Low-A (56 games) to High-A (27 games) to now Double-A (24 games and counting). The 21-year-old is still trying to find his way in Somerset (72 wRC+), but this kid was in rookie ball a year ago. Not a surprise Ramirez didn’t hit the ground running in Double-A. The High-A to Double-A jump is the biggest in the minors.

Ramirez will be Rule 5 Draft eligible (again) after the season and the aggressive promotions suggest the Yankees want to see how he handles more advanced arms (both hitting them and catching them) before making a 40-man roster decision. An AzFL assignment would be more data to help inform that 40-man decision come November. Ramirez is a hitter first and a catcher second. I’m fascinated by the upcoming 40-man decision given his unusual career path, and the fact catchers are rarely selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

C/1B Ben Rice

2023 stats: .319/.426/.617 (180 wRC+), 18 HR, 10 SB, 12.8 BB%, 19.5 K% (282 PA at A-, A+, AA)

I should have written about Rice sooner. I really dropped the ball here. My bad. Rice, a 2021 12th round pick, is having an unreal season, one that includes a 176 wRC+ with 14 home runs in only 38 Double-A plate appearances. He ranks 23rd in the Eastern League in homers despite not joining Somerset until July 19th. Sheesh. Here’s some video.

Rice turns 25 in February and he is slightly older than the average EL player this year, but he is not the typical 24-year-old. His experience is limited for his age. Here is Rice’s amateur career:

• 2019: 23 games as a freshman at Dartmouth plus 27 games in summer ball.
• 2020: Seven games at Dartmouth before the pandemic, plus 43 games in summer ball.
• 2021: Ivy League season canceled (pandemic). Only 13 games in summer ball.

Rice had 422 plate appearances from 2019-21 and 266 came in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League, a second tier summer league. The Yankees saw Rice’s 13-game stint in the Cape Cod League two summers ago and were impressed enough to give him $125,000 in the 12th round.

Even last season, Rice was not a priority prospect. He spent the summer as a part-time catcher and part-time first baseman with Low-A Tampa and put up a .267/.368/.442 (133 wRC+) line with nine home runs in 243 plate appearances. Rice started this year with High-A Hudson Valley, hurt his back in April, and returned in early July. He has been a non-stop hitting machine all year.

“I would say this to anyone: I think he’s probably one of the top 10 hitters in our organization,” minor league hitting coordinator Joe Migliaccio told Greg Joyce (subs. req’d) recently. “... When you look at some of the characteristics of the best hitters in baseball, they all tend to check some similar boxes, wouldn’t you know it? They tend to make more contact than average. They tend to make better swing decisions than average. They tend to hit the ball hard. And when they do hit it, they hit it in the air. Coincidentally enough, Ben Rice also checks all four of those boxes. And I think as he continues to collect more and more plate appearances in his relatively young career in pro ball, to see the trends that he’s made and the progress he’s made in the last two years or so, has been so exciting.”

Rice is forcing everyone to pay attention. He’s a left-handed hitting catcher, he’s putting up very loud numbers, his chase and contact rates are very good, and his hard-hit ability is promising. The exit velocity and whatnot isn’t great, but it’s solid. MLB.com recently ranked Rice the No. 23 prospect in the farm system. Here’s their scouting report:

With a compact yet strong left-handed swing and good strike-zone management, Rice has improved the frequency and quality of his contact this summer. Though he went deep five times in his first 12 Double-A games, he's still a hit-over-power guy who might max out around 15 homers per season. He has yet to do much damage against southpaws as a pro, so he may not be more than a platoon player.

Though he's a well-below-average runner, Rice moves well behind the plate. He's a solid receiver and blocker but struggles to combat the running game with his below-average arm strength. He also has seen action at first base and DH, two spots that require more power than he may be able to provide.

Right now Rice is a stats over scouting report prospect. He might just be a Mike Ford or Chris Gittens type who can catch – Rice is 8-for-62 (13%) throwing out runners this year, so yeah, his arm isn’t good – but we don’t know that yet, plus a Ford/Gittens type who can catch would be a useful piece. The Yankees have to figure out what they have here.

Rice missed two months with a back injury earlier this season and he’s performing so well that you want him to continue playing. You never really know with AzFL assignments, but gosh, Rice seems like an obvious candidate. Let him make up some of the at-bats he lost to the injury and continue building on the success he’s having with Somerset. Rice just might be a Guy.

“I don’t know what the limit is. I don’t know how high (his ceiling is). Is it backup catcher? Is it starting catcher? Is it future All-Star? I don’t know any of that,” Migliaccio told Joyce (subs. req’d). “But what I do know is what his current performance is, and what his metrics are telling us is that this guy is going to be a bat in somebody’s lineup, whether it’s the Yankees or another big league team. He’s gonna be in that lineup one day relatively soon because of how impactful his left-handed bat is.”

(Rice won’t be Rule 5 Draft eligible until next offseason. That’s nice. The Yankees won’t have to make a 40-man roster decision this winter based on a relatively small sample size. Rice will presumably begin 2024 in Scranton. The Yankees will get a full Triple-A year to evaluate him.)

RHP Matt Sauer

2023 stats: 3.63 ERA (3.84 FIP), 31.5 K%, 10.9 BB% (57 IP in Rk, A+, AA)

Because he suffered a forearm strain late last season, Sauer was not a Rule 5 Draft target over the winter, and he started this year on the shelf. He’s been quite good since returning in June and is still the same mid-90s-ish guy with a tight breaking ball. Sauer will be Rule 5 Draft eligible again this offseason. The AzFL would not only be an opportunity to make up innings lost to the injury. It would also be a chance to continue evaluating Sauer before making a 40-man roster decision. That’s a double-edged sword – other teams would get more time to evaluate him too – but the Yankees can’t really worry about that.

RHP Cam Schlittler

2023 stats: 4.61 ERA (4.75 FIP), 23.8 K%, 11.4 BB% (41 IP at Rk, A-, A+)

The Yankees have done fine work using mid-round draft picks on college pitchers they can coach up, though Schlittler, last year’s seventh rounder, hasn’t had the same immediate breakout as RHP Chase Hampton, who was picked one round earlier. Schlittler was held back in Extended Spring Training for pitch design work this year and has been just okay in actual games. Still, his fastball misses bats and his slider has improved. There’s talent here and it needs to be fostered. Schlittler threw 91.2 innings at Northeastern last year and should be more than up for the AzFL workload on top of the regular season.

IF Jared Serna

2023 stats: .283/.346/.463 (118 wRC+), 19 HR, 26 SB, 8.3 BB%, 15.7 K% (543 PA at A-, A+)

Serna has been one of the better performers in the farm system this year. His contact and chase rates were very good in Low-A, as was the contact quality, though I’ve been told he is way too pull conscious, and the Yankees are trying to get him to use right field more (Serna’s a righty hitter). Look at his Low-A heat map. All the damage is on the inner half:

A recently turned 21-year-old who was promoted to High-A less than a month ago being so pull heavy is not the end of the world. Serna has plenty of time to refine his approach and use more of the field. Where will he wind up defensively? I’m not sure. Second base seems most likely but the Yankees have also played him at short plenty and third some.

This is Serna’s Rule 5 Draft offseason but eh, I wouldn’t worry about that. The Rule 5 Draft is so pitching heavy these days, plus non-elite Single-A infield prospects weren’t a hot commodity even in the old days. The Yankees could send Serna to the AzFL just to get more at-bats and more innings in the field.

* * *

Knock on wood, the Yankees have had a good season with the health of their very best pitching prospects. RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Drew Thorpe, and RHP Will Warren all stayed healthy and cleared 100 innings. None of them are going to the AzFL. Baseball babies like SS Roderick Arias, SS George Lombard Jr., and OF Brando Mayea won’t go either. The AzFL is not the right place for them at this point in their careers.

My guess – I emphasize this is only a guess because again, predicting AzFL assignments is damn near impossible – is the Yankees will send Jones and Rice to the AzFL, and they will be the headliners. I’m curious to see whether they’ll send Gil. If not, Gómez seems like a decent enough candidate with Beck on the injured list and Sauer not being the same caliber prospect. You only get one rotation spot in the AzFL. You have to use it wisely.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Last week Peter Gammons mentioned the Yankees are considering the “possibility of trying” Gleyber Torres in the outfield, among other possible changes moving forward. Boy, I don’t know about that one. I think Torres would be fine defensively out there as long as you give him an offseason and a Spring Training to prepare, but Gleyber’s bat would go from above average at second base to just okay in a corner outfield spot. Why does it feel like the Torres/Oswald Peraza/Anthony Volpe middle infield logjam snuck up on the Yankees?

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)